Hoid's goal

[Ati16]

So we see Hoid being pretty active on Roshar against Odium for years but then he suddenly disappeared for seven years and went to be a cab driver for Wax on Scadrial. For all we know the most active things he did on Scadrial were giving Wax the coppermind with Kelsier's memory of the southern scadrians and save Wax from the sea. In an Oathbringer epigraph we see that Harmony asked Hoid to approach him directly for help against Odium, but that should have taken a few days at most, not seven years. What could have caused Hoid to leave Roshar for so long? Any thoughts?

[CognitiveShadow]

Could be that Odium wins in SA5 and Hoid has to jump ship to the next place where he is needed.

[kenod]

18 minutes ago, Ati16 said:

So we see Hoid being pretty active on Roshar against Odium for years but then he suddenly disappeared for seven years and went to be a cab driver for Wax on Scadrial. For all we know the most active things he did on Scadrial were giving Wax the coppermind with Kelsier's memory of the southern scadrians and save Wax from the sea. In an Oathbringer epigraph we see that Harmony asked Hoid to approach him directly for help against Odium, but that should have taken a few days at most, not seven years. What could have caused Hoid to leave Roshar for so long? Any thoughts?

Pretty sure that after book five Roshar will either be in a bad enough state that Hoid decides to bail, or in a good enough state that there's no reason for him to stick around.

[Ati16]

29 minutes ago, CognitiveShadow said:

Could be that Odium wins in SA5 and Hoid has to jump ship to the next place where he is needed.

There is a pretty good chance that Odium will win in SA5 because let's face it, what is Brandon going to write about for five books, when the main antagonist is gone. As for Hoid being needed at Scadrial we didn't see him do anything to help the Scadrians, except for picking up Wax from the sea, but maybe we'll find out more about what Hoid was up to behind the scenes. Mistborn Secret History 2 perhaps?

Edited November 28, 2022 by Ati16

[Returned]

1 hour ago, Ati16 said:

In an Oathbringer epigraph we see that Harmony asked Hoid to approach him directly for help against Odium, but that should have taken a few days at most, not seven years. What could have caused Hoid to leave Roshar for so long? Any thoughts?

We don't know much about what Hoid wants, and likely won't until much closer to the end of the Cosmere books overall. The things Hoid is pursuing (whatever they are) seem like they can take a long time to develop-- he's working across millennia, and often isn't sure what he's supposed to do in a given location. Something we see Hoid do on screen may not pay off until the very last book in the set. If the time is right to do something somewhere, Hoid will go there, try to figure out what to do, and then do it.

As for the duration, worldhopping seems like it can be pretty dangerous. Perhaps especially so for Hoid, as he is known to the Shards and is constantly meddling in their affairs, and can't harm living creatures. Travel is also inconsistently available. Getting to and from Scadrial and Roshar has been shown to be tricky and sometimes more or less impossible (at least by the methods Cosmere-dwellers typically use). If he had to leave Roshar to take care of some 30-minute task on Scadrial, it may be that seven years is the soonest he could return to Roshar even if he didn't have other tasks to take care of elsewhere. It's not the most satisfying answer, and I wouldn't assume that it's the case, but we can't rule it out.

"A few days at most" seems unreasonably brief, given that Hoid has to get somewhere to transition to the cognitive realm, actually travel to a section of it that overlaps with his destination in another solar system, transition back to the physical realm, take care of his tasks, and then do the whole thing in reverse. Of course, with his letters to the Shards he may well have had access to other people who could carry his messages, so the timeline might not be especially unforgiving.

[Shacharma]

And where is Design?

By this point Hoid has a Nahel bond which should prevent him from switching systems? (or does his other investiture from other systems make that more flexible?)

But even given some flexibility for him, we should at least be seeing a mysterious pattern slinking about him in Roshar? or a disguised person nearby? Could he have just left Design behind?
 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Shacharma

[Ati16]

2 hours ago, Shacharma said:

And where is Design?

By this point Hoid has a Nahel bond which should prevent him from switching systems? (or does his other investiture from other systems make that more flexible?)

But even given some flexibility for him, we should at least be seeing a mysterious pattern slinking about him in Roshar? or a disguised person nearby? Could he have just left Design behind?
 

He could have left Design behind without breaking his bond. Or maybe he figured out how to get off Roshar with his Nahel bond. It should be a simple connection poblem, maybe a feruchemist with the ability to manipulate connection would be able to ignore the connection problem? I don't think that Design would be disguised because that would waste stormlight, plus we don't see any person with Hoid in TLM. If Hoid figured out how to bring a Nahel bond off Roshar Design would probably be hiding in his coat or something.

[SteelBagel]

I think some bad stuff happened in SA5, Hoid jumped ship over to scadial to ask for Harmony's help, but Harmony wanted hoid to do some stuff in return, which was basically helping wax out in the ways we see in the books. In exchange Hoid gets something he needs, either to deal with Odium or to complete his overall goals.

[Ati16]

13 minutes ago, SteelBagel said:

I think some bad stuff happened in SA5, Hoid jumped ship over to scadial to ask for Harmony's help, but Harmony wanted hoid to do some stuff in return, which was basically helping wax out in the ways we see in the books. In exchange Hoid gets something he needs, either to deal with Odium or to complete his overall goals.

That's a good idea. Harmony definetly would want someone to help Wax and a Hoid acting as a cab driver for Wax could keep an eye on Wax, we did after all see Hoid in Bliming driving one of the trucks and he saved Wax from the sea. Maybe we'll see some help from Harmony in SA arc 2(if he's not to busy fighting with himself). Hoid did seem reluctant to approach Harmony directly so whatever happend on Roshar must have been bad enough to change his mind. 

[+Child of Hodor]

On 11/28/2022 at 1:44 PM, kenod said:

Pretty sure that after book five Roshar will either be in a bad enough state that Hoid decides to bail, or in a good enough state that there's no reason for him to stick around.

Until Book 6 when he has to come back for one last job. The job lasts another 5 books.  

Edited November 29, 2022 by Child of Hodor

[Kitch]

Hoid is on Scadrial because he needs to be on Scadrial. He just doesn't know why.

 

[+Oltux72]

On 28.11.2022 at 9:38 PM, Returned said:

We don't know much about what Hoid wants, and likely won't until much closer to the end of the Cosmere books overall. The things Hoid is pursuing (whatever they are) seem like they can take a long time to develop-- he's working across millennia, and often isn't sure what he's supposed to do in a given location. Something we see Hoid do on screen may not pay off until the very last book in the set. If the time is right to do something somewhere, Hoid will go there, try to figure out what to do, and then do it.

But we do know his short term goals. He is developing an alliance against Odium and is fighting a delaying action on Roshar to give that alliance time to prepare.

Based on that we need to conclude that his presence on Roshar does not do any good.

56 minutes ago, Kitch said:

Hoid is on Scadrial because he needs to be on Scadrial. He just doesn't know why.

I am afraid not. Waxillium would hardly hire Hoid whenever he showed up as his coach man. So he stayed on Scadrial for six years during which not much happened.

[teknopathetic]

I mean Hoid keeps saying he would let Roshar burn to get what he wants. I think we are getting hints that Hoid got what he wanted and left the planet. 

In Stormlight, Hoid says again and again not to trust him - I hope we see that pay off. 

Edit: I though this was Hoid, but it is Nazh
We also have him completely screwing over Nikki Savage in the broadsheets. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by teknopathetic

[CognitiveShadow]

2 minutes ago, teknopathetic said:

I mean Hoid keeps saying he would let Roshar burn to get what he wants. We also have him completely screwing over Nikki Savage in the broadsheets. I think we are getting hints that Hoid got what he wanted and left the planet. 

Maybe he was after a dawnshard or something (in particular to keep it away from Odium?)

Could be that he got that dawnshard whether from Rysn or different one and then bounced, leaving them to their own devices.

Spoiler for secret projects:

Spoiler

We understand for SP4 that Sigzil somehow got a Dawnshard and then gave it to Hoid if I recall correctly? So that could be him “getting what he wanted”.

[Returned]

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

But we do know his short term goals. He is developing an alliance against Odium and is fighting a delaying action on Roshar to give that alliance time to prepare.

Based on that we need to conclude that his presence on Roshar does not do any good.

We don't know this at all. It's obviously a possibility, and as the various Cosmere series develop I think it's increasingly likely that we'll see Hoid fail in various objectives. Maybe this is one of the first consequential ones! But it's only raw speculation that Hoid's unknown, overarching goals were not served at all by his time on Roshar, as is guessing so specifically what the state of the Cosmere is going to be at the end of SA5.

It's also absurd to think that Hoid can't place himself where he wants or needs to be on his own. He's managed to get himself positions close to important people and events all across the Cosmere over and over again; there's no reason to think that he needed a Shard's help to be named Elhokar's Wit, for example.  But he can't get hired on as a coach driver? There's no way he could persuade, cajole, trick, or magic his way into such a job? A Hoid that could be accurately described this way flat-out doesn't match with what we've seen of him.

We'll see what happens as the stories develop, of course. But the conclusion(s) you've asserted seem far, far from definitely true, and then using those conclusions (even if they are true!) to make very strong assumptions about what happened during stretches of time which we explicitly don't see on-screen in any of the books is untenable. I'm open to a lot of possibilities, including the ones you're advancing, but treating them as necessarily true based on the information we have is too far.

[Leuthie]

On 11/28/2022 at 11:50 AM, Ati16 said:

There is a pretty good chance that Odium will win in SA5 because let's face it, what is Brandon going to write about for five books, when the main antagonist is gone

It's could be broken up into two different sections because each section has a different main antagonist. Odium could be Splintered in Book 5 without solving all of Roshar's problems.

[teknopathetic]

19 minutes ago, Leuthie said:

It's could be broken up into two different sections because each section has a different main antagonist. Odium could be Splintered in Book 5 without solving all of Roshar's problems.

Also, I mean, can we have the hero win again? Wouldn't that get old? The more interesting series is a world where the good guys lose but keep their honour. 

[Ati16]

1 hour ago, Leuthie said:

It's could be broken up into two different sections because each section has a different main antagonist. Odium could be Splintered in Book 5 without solving all of Roshar's problems.

I was thinking that arc 2 might be more FE style, about a struggling people led by the radiants, seeking to find a way to overthrow Odium's empire on Roshar, led by Dalinar who after losing to Odium became his puppet.

[Leuthie]

2 hours ago, teknopathetic said:

Also, I mean, can we have the hero win again? Wouldn't that get old? The more interesting series is a world where the good guys lose but keep their honour. 

Who says the protagonists win just because Odium is Splintered?

I'm not stating my preference, I'm saying that Odium doesn't have to win to create a good situation for the back 5.

 

To not detract from the conversation: Hoid's obviously on Scadrial at this time for the same reason Sanderson is writing a series about what is happening on Scadrial at this time. Hoid's goals and Sanderson's goals seem to be related in some way. Hmmm.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Leuthie

[Monk of Dakhor]

Well, lets be honest, we don't really know odium's goal now that it is a new odium, and once Hoid finds out this will probably also change his goal and the majority of the characters in the series.

[ftl]

On 11/28/2022 at 1:50 PM, Ati16 said:

There is a pretty good chance that Odium will win in SA5 because let's face it, what is Brandon going to write about for five books, when the main antagonist is gone.

Brandon switches main antagonists pretty often.

You could say the same about Mistborn - after Book 1 (The Final Empire), what's he gonna write about when the main antagonist (Lord Ruler) died immediately, instead of lasting the whole trilogy? ...or, after book 3, when Ruin is killed - what's Brandon gonna write about for 2-3 more eras of Mistborn, now that the main antagonist is dead?

In Stormlight, well, the guy who might have been the main antagonist (Rayse) was killed at the end of book 4. What's Brandon going to write about? ...the new, bigger, stronger antagonist (Taravangian).

No reason the same couldn't happen in Stormlight 5. Main antagonist (Taravangian/Odium) gets shanked, new main antagonist takes center stage and takes over for him in the back 5 books.

[lacrossedeamon]

12 hours ago, teknopathetic said:

I mean Hoid keeps saying he would let Roshar burn to get what he wants. We also have him completely screwing over Nikki Savage in the broadsheets. I think we are getting hints that Hoid got what he wanted and left the planet. 

That's not Hoid; it's Nazh.

[+Oltux72]

16 hours ago, Returned said:

We don't know this at all. It's obviously a possibility, and as the various Cosmere series develop I think it's increasingly likely that we'll see Hoid fail in various objectives. Maybe this is one of the first consequential ones! But it's only raw speculation that Hoid's unknown, overarching goals were not served at all by his time on Roshar, as is guessing so specifically what the state of the Cosmere is going to be at the end of SA5.

Yes, but that was not at issue. In last consequence, Hoid does not care about the survival of Roshar. He said so himself. He is stalling. Once the war on Roshar has a definite result, he can go and leave the Rosharans to their fate.

16 hours ago, Returned said:

It's also absurd to think that Hoid can't place himself where he wants or needs to be on his own. He's managed to get himself positions close to important people and events all across the Cosmere over and over again; there's no reason to think that he needed a Shard's help to be named Elhokar's Wit, for example.  But he can't get hired on as a coach driver?

He can, but not repeatedly at will. He cannot just show up at Ladrian Manor before the time jump and again afterwards and tell Waxillium to get a new coach man who happens to be the coach man he had years ago. We are talking about a detective who is suspicious and knows about the Kandra and the Set.

 

[Returned]

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Yes, but that was not at issue. In last consequence, Hoid does not care about the survival of Roshar. He said so himself. He is stalling. Once the war on Roshar has a definite result, he can go and leave the Rosharans to their fate.

I'm just not seeing the connection you're positing here. Hoid does not care about the survival of Roshar: yes, he says this directly (or, at least, he says that he would sacrifice Roshar to get what he needs). How does that suggest that he's stalling, rather than actively pursuing whatever it is that he needs? Or that Roshar's current war is so central to what he needs? Or that, even if I agree with what you're asserting, once the war ends and Hoid can leave Roshar that means that he's failed?

I appreciate that this thread may not be the place to fully lay out all of these cases (and if you've described them elsewhere I haven't seen them, so I may be missing the details you're relying on), but all I see to support these specific ideas is your commitment to them. And they're very specific conclusions, which are then fed back into other speculations. That's not persuasive evidence.

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

He can, but not repeatedly at will. He cannot just show up at Ladrian Manor before the time jump and again afterwards and tell Waxillium to get a new coach man who happens to be the coach man he had years ago. We are talking about a detective who is suspicious and knows about the Kandra and the Set.

Why not? "I'd like some time off to try to start a business." "My brother is sick out in the Roughs town I'm from, I have to go be with my family for now. May I take some time off and return to your service later?" "Your last coachman was also named Hoid? What an odd coincidence! In Elendel, at least. Hoid is a really common name in parts of the Roughs. Parts you're not familiar with." "I know it seems odd to rehire me, but I'm the best horse-calmer and car-driver on Scadrial! If I'm available, you'll want me as your coachman." "Here is some magic you don't know anything about to cause you to rehire me without suspicion."

Hoid is a master of misdirection and persuasion who has millennia of experience working people and has access to various arcane magics totally unknown to Wax (and us). He never (as far as we know) operated against Wax in any way, nor supported his opponents in any way, nor did anything at all that was contrary to things that Wax valued or wanted, and likely performed faithful service to Wax while working. It's a good observation that the time skip is a detail Hoid would need to work around, but the idea that he is 100% constrained only to continuous work in his disguise over that period is overdetermined. Your analysis could be correct, but given the setting and the character at issue it's not the only possible way things could have happened.

[Monk of Dakhor]

Now that I'm thinking about it (and I could be wrong, I haven't read the wax and wayne series, the new book in mistborn, or warbreaker) could it be possible that Hoid and the people like him are just supposed to be specters and see what happens and not interfere? This could be the reason that that the others are hunting and looking for him because he has been a part of this and helping and interacting with certain people and groups, when he isn't supposed to be doing that? That could be the reason that he is saying that he doesn't care about the fate of Roshar (or any of the other planets) and will leave when he see's who wins? Could it be possible that all of the world hoppers are reporting back to a certain person and in the future all of the "Heros" from each of the series in the cosmere (Raidants, mistborn, mistlings, ect.) are going to have to fight this said person and this person could end up being the main villan

 

I could be entirely wrong, I don't have much evidence this is mostly just speculation