Quick Fix 63: Simple Rules

[Turtle]

who should i pm

i never know who to pm lmao

wait does this sort of clear jnv cos we would have seen more push onto silho when it was tied?

edit: that or the elim team is just inactive, actually

Edited November 9, 2022 by Turtle

[Kasimir]

I lean towards just claiming but recognise that in a 5/2 world, people may prefer to hold off one more cycle to real lylo.

We're either 4/3 or 5/2. More likely 5/2. In 5/2 world, next cycle is lylo. (See: discussion we've already had about distro.)

I'm mildly surprised they chose not to attack Xino. Protect is a far more high-value role than regular. It's possible Xino really is E (I lean against this still because they have an easier variant to run with, I think.) Another salient possibility is they decided to try to get rid of me in order to push Xino, but it's just odd on so many levels because surely I would be a predictable Lurch target as Xino couldn't self-target last cycle.

Silho being V makes me lean towards my interpretation of the C1 EoD swing as Silho was the one player I wasn't so sure of. Maybe I could revise my Ash read but I'm still finding the idea of a knife Elim being a difficult pill to swallow in light of our current distro.

15 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

The improbability is that Kas and Xino are both evil and pulling off a WGG, scratch that. It's highly improbable, like it's more likely tomorrow is going to be the first of octember kind of improbable.

It's not impossible, but WGG is usually pulled when you need trust or to explain why you're still alive. I uh, don't actually have that problem

13 minutes ago, Turtle said:

wait does this sort of clear jnv cos we would have seen more push onto silho when it was tied?

In a two member team world, who pushes? Not ruling this out of hand, but asking. Noteworthy that Ash asked about the Silho train as well.

15 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

The less likely thing is that the elim team is trying to WBG Kas and Xino. I admit this one is a bit more of a stretch, as Xino could just be blocking the NK perfectly. Which is nice, since we probably have two more cycles, unless someone else has a knife, stabs a villager, and gets killed by the backlash.

I actually doubt this. WBG generally requires thread control. If they want to convincingly WBG me, they'd need someone on their roster or roster-adjacent, i.e. pocketed and capable of taking me in a threadfight, and that takes seeding the groundwork. You could argue it's an inexperienced team so they didn't realise that they needed groundwork to WBG but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

To put it more bluntly, it's possible someone was trying to seed the groundwork for it via Ash, but while I think a threadfight with Ash would be an interesting world, I don't think they have what it takes to make a WBG succeed in this instance, considering I'm the one defending Ash against PoE, which instinctively means there's a credibility deficit anyway. Most Elim teams generally find it's more effort-saving to just NK me and be done with it  (Hi Mat!)

I will say this is not a fully counter-intuitive kill: I was commenting to Stick before EoD that I couldn't call it but I expected them to either hit me or hit Xino, and moreover, that I felt it was anticipatable enough that I'd ask to be Lurched but felt it was bad manners to do so and would rather Xino make his own calls.

15 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

The probably thing that this points to is a lower active/new player elim team, since most people would have gone for and killed Xino since he was probably unprotected.

I'd like to hear @Ashbringer run some NKA, but my thought would be that this is a team that is prioritising control kills over Lurches, which could ironically demonstrate some sophistication. Lurchers aren't a problem if they're not Lurching your target or if you believe the Village will reliably ML. Or they could have a decent risk appetite.

15 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Sorry I didn't respond to you last round Kas. I meant to but, didn't get to it. I think that Ash is likely village but my brain didn't want to let go of the possibility of a Ash, JNV team.

Fair, just feel it's important to keep us grounded in likelihood. Elims will drown us in possibilities if we let them - see QF62 Mat and FUD. Our job is to look for the most plausible set of worlds and play there.

Edited to add:

Interesting question for you all

Well, one for @Matrim's Dice first: do we actually know how many charges Silho died with?

And for the rest of the class:

Take this at face value: two Villagers with Fenweed. One Villager with a Tent. One Villager with a one-shot Knife.

What do the Elims need to handle one recurring protect and two charged roleblocks and a one-shot kill?

Edited November 9, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Well, one for @Matrim's Dice first: do we actually know how many charges Silho died with?

You do not.

[Ashbringer]

…. my brain.

I thought I would die, but apparently not. Good thing I guess.

I’m… very busy today, unfortunately. But we get one more exe before theoretical exelo, so I doubt this is any WBG or WGG.

Claim time might be nice. @Turtle, did you RB anyone? @xinoehp512, willing to confirm if you’re our Happy Camper? @JNV @The Bookwyrm, thoughts reads things?

[Turtle]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

…. my brain.

I thought I would die, but apparently not. Good thing I guess.

I’m… very busy today, unfortunately. But we get one more exe before theoretical exelo, so I doubt this is any WBG or WGG.

Claim time might be nice. @Turtle, did you RB anyone? @xinoehp512, willing to confirm if you’re our Happy Camper? @JNV @The Bookwyrm, thoughts reads things?

no, didn’t rb anyone

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Take this at face value: two Villagers with Fenweed. One Villager with a Tent. One Villager with a one-shot Knife.

What do the Elims need to handle one recurring protect and two charged roleblocks and a one-shot kill?

i don’t know a ton abt game balancing but i’d say maybe a knife and a vanilla or two prs?

that being said that assumes all of the elims are in wiz/bookwyrm/jnv which i don’t really see?

[The Wandering Wizard]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fair, just feel it's important to keep us grounded in likelihood. Elims will drown us in possibilities if we let them - see QF62 Mat and FUD. Our job is to look for the most plausible set of worlds and play there.

 

I'll try to keep it to possible worlds, but that puts my PoE solidly at JNV and Books. I'd like to hear their thoughts first.

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What do the Elims need to handle one recurring protect and two charged roleblocks and a one-shot kill?

One with a knife and one with fenweed sap, would be my solution to that problem, I think. Or two with fenweed sap. The roleblocking would allow them to ensure they most likely get the kill through and the knife could help with the kill blocking. That's assuming a two elim team.

I'll go ahead and claim right now, but this is likely to get me killed. I have silver dust.

[Ashbringer]

If the Elims have a knife, that makes this exelo. Or at least a 50% exelo. That's the thing about Elim Knives, the Elims have to go through that 50% chance unless they use it for WGG or WBG purposes. (Or the patented DBG - Dead Buffalo Gambit, involving the removal of the protection from the WBG - but not advised around exelo .)

[Kasimir]

Right. Quick and dirty vote analysis so I can actually sleep for more than an hour for once.

JNV posts and votes on Silho. This is the vote state at this point in the cycle. I'll do a full 'from the beginning' vote analysis later, this is quick and dirty.

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Silho (1): JNV
Bookwyrm (1): Ash
JNV (1): Kas
Turtle (1): Xino

In that same post, I shift from JNV to Silho. Silho becomes the lead train for the moment.

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Silho (2): JNV, Kas
Bookwyrm (1): Ash
Turtle (1): Xino

 

14 hours ago, 13 hours if we are talking time to rollover. Not the danger point yet IMO.

Bookwyrm votes on Silho for self-pres. Bookwyrm has been voting on and off Silho all cycle and that feels opportunistic.

We are looking at:

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Silho (3): JNV, Kas, Bookwyrm
Bookwyrm (1): Ash
Turtle (1): Xino

I want to highlight this vote as this is the second time Bookwyrm has slotted onto a major train in as many cycles and proceeded to leave his vote there. He did that with Archer in C1 (fourth vote) and has now done it again for Silho (third vote.) He does move off Silho for a bit, which is a somewhat good look, but nevertheless. Evil move.

I eventually am convinced enough to move from Silho to JNV, after a bunch of PMs with Silho and more reflection on my tunnels. And asking Wiz if I was tunnelling .__.

The votecount:

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Silho (2): JNV, Bookwyrm
Bookwyrm (1): Ash
Turtle (1): Xino
JNV (2): Kas, Wiz

This is also the move Ash @s me for later, about leading a vote swing off Silho and onto a new train on JNV.

Wiz joins me on JNV subsequently. The trains are tied.

Two minutes after Wiz, Silho puts a self-pres vote on JNV.

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Silho (3): JNV, Bookwyrm, Turtle
Bookwyrm (1): Ash
Turtle (1): Xino
JNV (3): Kas, Wiz, Silho

The JNV train is now in the lead, but for a very short amount of time. Three minutes later, Turtle votes on Silho for self-pres, bringing it to 3/3. Worth noting that Turtle says they might vote on JNV if JNV returns, which of course doesn't happen. JNV's teammate might know this is a safe condition.

This vc continues through Mat's announcement of an hour and two minutes left in the cycle.

Ash comments about not liking ties and a preference for Bookwyrm. @Ashbringer, who would you have voted if Xino hadn't intervened?

Turtle doesn't like the JNV train, either.

Xino swoops in and makes the fateful decision at fifteen minutes to rollover, putting Shining in the lead and preventing anyone from needing to act to preserve JNV. So in answer to Turtle's question: the simple answer is that people were acting to save JNV - Ash discouraged the JNV train, and you explicitly were against it. Bookwyrm voted Silho at a time when JNV was the opposing train. Or, as you say, we could postulate inactives. And on a purely votes basis, Xino breaks the tie in favour of Shining, which still saves JNV.

(Sure, there are role reasons to v!read - we could argue if the Elims really wanted me dead, Turtle could just have not claimed fenweed and roleblocked Xino and then killed me. Xino could claim to be roleblocked instead of putting in that protect, if we think they're teammates, instead of having to protect me. But this had to be said anyway. Because with these protective actions, there's no need for JNV's teammates to get involved anyway.)

This could also synch nicely with Ash noticing that Bookwyrm was watching the thread, even if Bookwyrm then went off by EoD - the time you guys commented Book was offline for nineteen minutes:

This is at 0159hrs. Working backwards, Bookwyrm was last on at 0140hrs. Admittedly five minutes before Xino saves JNV, so that's a good look. But then again, Bookwyrm was already voting Silho, the main CW, so there's nothing more Bookwyrm could've done anyway.

14 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

One with a knife and one with fenweed sap, would be my solution to that problem, I think. Or two with fenweed sap. The roleblocking would allow them to ensure they most likely get the kill through and the knife could help with the kill blocking. That's assuming a two elim team.

16 minutes ago, Turtle said:

i don’t know a ton abt game balancing but i’d say maybe a knife and a vanilla or two prs?

Problem is that giving the Elims an extra free kill can be volatile. But I'm definitely wondering if they have some fenweed - this should soften the Village protects. I don't see a world without Village protects, due to the fact that Violation already promises to take down some Villagers, and this is volatile either way. One Village protect is on the smaller side (if there is another, you should probably claim now, especially if you protected me, PM me privately or something if you're worried about saying it in thread) - but that gels with a two Elim team assumption. Knife and two Elims is especially volatile. The other issue is that if Elims have a free kill, they probably just blow it ASAP. You could argue the 50% shot makes them more cautious but if you think about it, their position only weakens near endgame when you really need every Elim you can get.

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ash comments about not liking ties and a preference for Bookwyrm. @Ashbringer, who would you have voted if Xino hadn't intervened?

I would have gone JNV. Although to be honest I was more waiting for something to explode into a new direction and try and de-explode it.

From what I remember, Shining and Bookwyrm both weren't around at EoD, and xino may have left after his vote. Everyone else was there watching.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

From what I remember, Shining and Bookwyrm both weren't around at EoD, and xino may have left after his vote. Everyone else was there watching.

This is true. But I think we currently think two man team is the most likely world, especially with only one known protect. Which means there wasn't much to be done, either. It's a rough adjustment for me because the Elim team of necessity leaves a smaller trace due to smaller team size.

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I would have gone JNV. Although to be honest I was more waiting for something to explode into a new direction and try and de-explode it.

Oh? Why so?

FWIW guys, where I'm at for the moment is at least one, if not both of JNV and Bookwyrm. For the moment, I'm going to vote JNV again. I didn't like their shift to Silho - too much waffling, and I didn't like their reaction (or lack thereof) to Archer. Feels maybe a tad bit TMI informed, given most of us were at least entertaining some E!Archer credences.

Am willing to go Bookwyrm as well if that's where everyone wants to be, but.

[The Wandering Wizard]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

From what I remember, Shining and Bookwyrm both weren't around at EoD, and xino may have left after his vote. Everyone else was there watching.

Everyone that was around EoD was: Turtle, me, Kas, Ash, xino, the GM, and the IM.

As said before I lean E on JNV and Books. I'm willing to vote on either one.

I'll open up Books as an option, but I will consolidate on JNV if that's the way the way we are swinging.

[Ashbringer]

Bookwyrm

(I remember Books as someone else but I think with 7 people I can remember )

[Turtle]

@The Bookwyrm who do you currently sus? who’s ur top 2 v reads?

tbh im sort of seeing a bookwyrm/jnv team it would explain the lack of opposition to the tie cos neither of them were online i dont think

hmmmmm might do a full team analysis soon that seems fun

[Kasimir]

I do feel the inactive Elim profile case is a bit stronger. And that the kill feels like a JNV kill. Though in all fairness, I don't know Bookwyrm's kill meta.

That is:

On 11/9/2022 at 2:37 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Vote Count:

• Archer (3): xinoehp512, The Bookwyrm, Turtle
• The Unknown Order (6): JNV, Shining Silhouette, Archer, Kasimir, Ashbringer, The Wandering Wizard
• The Wandering Wizard (1): The Unknown Novel

In particular for @Ashbringer and @The Wandering Wizard - if you know you're V (which you should, you should always know your own alignment  ) then this should point you to a very pure late game swing to TUN. And if the swing is pure, then the only places for the Elims to be are really: <JNV, Xino, Bookwyrm, Turtle.> I'd further argue we have some reason to V!read both Xino and Turtle. That sort of leaves us with those two.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Vote Count:

• The Bookwyrm (1): Ashbringer
• JNV (3): Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette
• Shining Silhouette (4): JNV, The Bookwyrm, Turtle, xinoehp512

...Huh. Why do Bookwyrm, Turtle, and xino always like voting together, Elim team confirmed :eyes:

Wiz in particular will know with a high likelihood if the JNV train is pure, which I believe it is. I think this should indicate that Bookwyrm's vote is suspect, and of the three remaining on the train, I'm definitely most inclined to suspect JNV.

I don't deny Xino could be making a play for trust, but that requires I think a Xino/JNV team, meaning that if we have one more exe to go, lynching within <Bookwyrm, JNV> should clear that world up. But that's why I prefer JNV. It helps address paranoid Xino possibilities  

[Turtle]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

..Huh. Why do Bookwyrm, Turtle, and xino always like voting together, Elim team confirmed :eyes:

wait didn’t xino say something abt ‘it must be a 2 player elim team or else if i wasn’t protected we’d be dead’? :eyes:

also running reads list from my notes again:

———

The Wandering Wizard - null+ maybe this is just fun pm bias? pms were great tho :D. 

Kasimir - v duh

The Bookwyrm - null- lurking didn’t seem very good but i’d like to see them post more before we kill them (like jnv)

Ashbringer - null ugh need to reread posts tone was good but at this point i need more to sustain a read

JNV - null- as i already mentioned im seeing them teamed w bookwyrm, and the avoidance of the activity filter doesn’t seem great. i need to reread their posts before i vote them tho

xinoehp512 - null+ unless we have another tenter? that would put it more at null unless they want to claim protecting kas and themselves

team stuff will come later, if u want me to explain any of these in more detail just ask

[Kasimir]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I do feel the inactive Elim profile case is a bit stronger. And that the kill feels like a JNV kill. Though in all fairness, I don't know Bookwyrm's kill meta.

Sorry, I should've explained this.

JNV does like to do suspicion kills. (False flag ones sometimes so it depends.) But also the main reason you leave noisy players alive as an Elim is if you have noisy teammates. It's entirely possible this is a IKYK kill meant to make us infer the team is quiet players, but given the shrinking group size, I think it's more pragmatic: killing me shrinks the PoE least and gives them more space to hide, which points to a specific sort of player profile.

Reason why that player profile matters?

It's the why not Xino question. Because if you flip Xino V (as I mentioned, I am still decently committed to V!Xino), then the hiding pool is more or less <JNV, Bookwyrm, Turtle> and I've already been aggressively clear about my view of V!Turtle.

Dunno. Open to @Ashbringer on NKA. But also Ash, why'd you expect to get killed? My view was that enough people were insisting you weren't really V that I find it an odd statement. And with your Knife used, you aren't a direct role threat to them currently.

[The Wandering Wizard]

I've convinced myself more of E!JNV than E!Bookwyrm, who is still my number two suspect. But the possible WGG explained by Kas makes me want to go after JNV before Books.

Spoiler

 

[Turtle]

17 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I've convinced myself more of E!JNV than E!Bookwyrm, who is still my number two suspect. But the possible WGG explained by Kas makes me want to go after JNV before Books.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

honestly i’m fine w both of them, but in a e!jnv world i would have seen a teammate voting on silho (maybe xino? e!xino world is weird) or an inactive teammate, which leads me to bookwyrm. I’m feeling e!bookwyrm over e!jnv rn cos bookwyrm can be paired w more people.

[The Bookwyrm]

The Wandering Wizard - Null, maybe a slight village lean. Nothing about him has stood out to me this game, but I don't know whether that's because he isn't suspicious, or if he's trying to keep to himself.

Kas - Villager. I haven't played much with Kas, but...there's something about his constant analyses that seem genuine. They're helpful.

Turtle - Slight Elim lean. This one is primarily based on their voting, which seems to be tied with Xino. Granted, I voted the same way as both these people for the last two cycles, so...maybe it's not the best evidence, after all...? A Turtle-Xino team would make sense to me. Turtle has been posting enough to not seem suspicious in the same way as Xino and JNV, though.

Xino - Slight Elim lean, for reason listed above, and also for the fact that we haven't seen them post much. I could be misreading, but....I think Xino is a safe bet.

Ashbringer - Similar to Wizard; nothing stands out about their posts, so null with a slight village lean.

JNV - Very slight elim lean. Primarily because they haven't been posting a lot, or because I haven't been paying attention. But their inactivity seems slightly suspicious.

Umm......We'll go with Xino for now, but I'll probably switch later if things change up.

Edited November 9, 2022 by The Bookwyrm

[Kasimir]

19 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Umm......We'll go with Xino for now, but I'll probably switch later if things change up.

20 minutes ago, Turtle said:

but in a e!jnv world i would have seen a teammate voting on silho (maybe xino? e!xino world is weird)

How does the fact that your Elim read thinks your other Elim read is Evil make you feel?

21 minutes ago, Turtle said:

I’m feeling e!bookwyrm over e!jnv rn cos bookwyrm can be paired w more people.

This is just odd to me. The fact Bookwyrm can be paired with more people should be bad - we want to, over time, update and narrow down our PoE, not blow it up repeatedly and expand it.

And I say this despite Bookwyrm's latest post seeming...once again, opportunistic :|

23 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Turtle - Slight Elim lean. This one is primarily based on their voting, which seems to be tied with Xino. Granted, I voted the same way as both these people for the last two cycles, so...maybe it's not the best evidence, after all...? A Turtle-Xino team would make sense to me. Turtle has been posting enough to not seem suspicious in the same way as Xino and JNV, though.

Xino - Slight Elim lean, for reason listed above, and also for the fact that we haven't seen them post much. I could be misreading, but....I think Xino is a safe bet.

Ashbringer - Similar to Wizard; nothing stands out about their posts, so null with a slight village lean.

JNV - Very slight elim lean. Primarily because they haven't been posting a lot, or because I haven't been paying attention. But their inactivity seems slightly suspicious.

Ok. You know what. If Bookwyrm is Evil, I'd look at this again.

[xinoehp512]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

@xinoehp512, willing to confirm if you’re our Happy Camper?

A very happy camper indeed

Honestly, it seems like the simplest world is a <JNV, Bookwyrm> team. I think I'll go Bookwyrm for now.

• Bookwyrm (2): Ash, Xino
• JNV (2): Kas, Wizard
• Xino (1): Bookwyrm

 

[Kasimir]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• One action is allotted per turn, to those with the ability to take one.

Wait a bloody minute >>

Quote

Standard eliminator faction, with a group doc and a factional kill each turn that counts as an action.

Mat.

@Matrim's Dice

I'd like to confirm this. If you put in an action, you cannot have put in the Elim kill.

Am I correct in this inference.

[Turtle]

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Wait a bloody minute >>

Mat.

@Matrim's Dice

I'd like to confirm this. If you put in an action, you cannot have put in the Elim kill.

Am I correct in this inference.

oH

edit: to add to kas’s question, does having silver dust used up affect the elim kill at all?

Edited November 9, 2022 by Turtle

[Mat]

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'd like to confirm this. If you put in an action, you cannot have put in the Elim kill.

Am I correct in this inference.

Yes

You can pass an item and submit the kill, though.

[Turtle]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This is just odd to me. The fact Bookwyrm can be paired with more people should be bad - we want to, over time, update and narrow down our PoE, not blow it up repeatedly and expand it.

oh wait u right

ig my thought process was that more possible pairings=more likelihood of being elim but that doesn’t actually make much sense now that i think abt it

also yeah the bookwyrm xino vote feels very very strange and elimmy, tone is way off and idk what to think abt it

xino did you protect both yourself and kas?

edit:

@The Bookwyrm if you aren’t elim, what do you think the elim team is? do you have any town reads (v reads) other than kas? 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Turtle