Shining Silhouette Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Turtle said: is how that conversation would go lmao you mean how that conversation went :eyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: you mean how that conversation went :eyes: lmao yes ofc NOOOOOOO WHY DONT EMOJIS WORK :(((( old ben was now very sad, for emojis seemed to be more civilized characters for a more civilized age, and the forests of hell were clearly not civilized. edit: the goal here was to actually do the emoji :eyes: Edited November 9, 2022 by Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 58 minutes ago, Turtle said: “hey guys here’s my reads list what do yall think?” “uhm, turtle, we are elims, we know everyone’s alignment” “riiiiight” is how that conversation would go lmao i what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNV Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 Jal sat a little ways back from the fire and thought about things. Everyone had shown up and given a few opinions yesterday, so the deaths were no accident. No one was tripping over a rock and smashing their face in here. No, just accusations tossed around the fire and blood in the air. For expeditioners, these people sure seemed inexperienced in killing without bloodshed. The early names tossed around the fire were just banter and comedy, more of a game than actual accusations. Bit of a dangerous game, but nothing too strange. Things started heating up with that Keen fellow's side-eye of Gale, saying that death-seeking for vanity's sake was useless and blatantly counter to the goals of the expedition. Got him so riled up he broke his vow of terseness. That accusation was strong as anything, and quite a bit better than theirs, to be honest. It was the accusations after that raised eyebrows. That Jeffrey lad just followed Keen without thought or elaboration. Not exactly the most well-founded accusation, no matter how pretty the language used to deliver it. Same with that Wylir. Just agreeing, following like sheep. The only thing more dangerous than someone with power is someone with power and sheep following behind. Gale came back with recriminations against the accusation. Not its contents or its reasoning, but its timing. Apparently, you've got to let nonsense simmer a little, let it contaminate the broth. Dubious, but then again, Gale was dead now, so it wasn't like they could pull any more of this out of their hat. Next was a vote from... Jal didn't remember their name. A fella in a shiny hat. Apparently, Wylir's joke accusation for Jeffrey, who'd been asking for death in what Jal assumed was a joke, had not gone over well. The shiny fella's immediate switch to Old Ben just after someone asking why they weren't on Ben was a bit strange. No justification, no reasoning, just action and reaction. After that, that Mat Rims fellow mentioned Jeffrey for doing something that someone else had also done. No justification for why they preferred the one over the other. If Jal hadn't been asleep while Mat Rims said this, they might have held to their first accusation anyway. Keen asked a good question. Why did Jal accuse Mat Rims right before dropping off the map? Well, they knew Mat Rims's sort. They'd faced many such people. They knew, deep in their heart, that no matter what fancy justifications they threw out there, they'd end up on Mat Rims sooner or later. Mat Rims or that Old Ben. Might as well get the going out of the way before the fire gets hot. From what other people were saying, the end of yesterday was a bit... hectic. Accusations were flying like mosquitoes, people changing their minds on a dime. Entire coalitions fluctuated between people, and somehow, the vote ended up against that poor Mat Rims. Jal wasn't exactly torn up about it, but they were a little annoyed that all the accusations seemed to be products of the heat of the moment rather than actual thought. Every single accusation against Mat Rims was meaningless noise, especially theirs. It wasn't the first time they'd gotten a man killed in absentia, and it probably wouldn't be the last. Gale and Mat Rims were exonerated by the highest authority in the land. Of the living, Jal felt good about Keen. Then again, they always felt good about people who talked like every word was a knife balanced on the edge of a philosophical conundrum. They also felt good about that fella with the memory issues. Took a lot of courage to fess up to intentionally murking folk in the night, and the rest of their behavior seemed pretty clean. The rest... Jeffrey seemed attentive and focused, but Jal wouldn't sleep in the same tent as them, if you catch their meaning. Old Ben was the sort to talk a lot and not say much. It was hard to get a read on them. Wylir was a little better, but the way they kept walking back all their accusations rubbed Jal the wrong way. The shiny fellow... there wasn't much against them, but there wasn't much for them either. Same with Onyx. Jal wasn't so good at deciphering people from their words, but they'd ended up a bit convinced anyway. There was always the risk of it being more confirmation bias than actual reason, but that fella in the shiny hat [Silhouette] was a a bit tonally strange and had weird accusations with very little foundation. A case could be made for Old Ben, but Jal felt most confident in the shiny fella. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) Quote Silho (1): JNV Bookwyrm (1): Ash JNV (1): Kas Turtle (1): Xino Calm thread, placid cycle, distributed votes. This isn't good. 2 hours ago, Kasimir said: Archer (3): Xino, Bookwyrm, Turtle TUN (6): JNV, Silho, Archer, Kas, Ash, Wiz Wiz (1): TUN The Archer+TUN trains combined cannot be pure. The question is whether the Archer or the TUN train is pure. Book's vote on Archer from D1 still looks opportunistic as all hell. @The Bookwyrm - Why go on Wiz in the first place, and what made you change your mind about Wiz? Silho's rapid switch from Book to Turtle under challenge sort of looks ? - @Shining Silhouette - What motivated your swap to Turtle? You mentioned that you wanted to get a reaction from Book but I doubt your vote was really parked on Book for very long. @Ashbringer, you say at EoC that you dislike ties. Why tiebreak onto TUN when you could tiebreak onto Archer and not need to stab him? I'm currently unwell. Will edit in my notes/further thoughts after I've had some time to clean them up and get rest. For the moment: JNV Silho Let's shift the dynamics of the situation a little. Edited to add: Ok, less time than I expected. Dumping notes in case anyone has a better idea. Back later. Notes: Spoiler Cycle One: - I still like Wiz's opening post. I know that Wilson bet the farm on V!Claincy in AG1 because I think he hit the thread before his PMs and she expected E!him to be in the doc or something, so it's defeasible, but I feel that Wiz's attitudes in LG90 kinda show he'd be thrilled to be Elim and in a doc. In that light, I still feel okay with thinking Wiz looks very light V from it. Quote Archer (1): Kas This is my notes PM no one is going to stop me from just colouring my name in beautiful Village green. - I also still like Ash's post. Solvy right off the bat, where I feel like an Elim might have a slower start or not necessarily think to point that out. Ash making the Wiz/Shining confusion is weird though. Was he paying attention then? Or just very keen to get in the separation? Quote Archer (1): Kas Turtle (1): Ash Two minutes later, Turtle pokevotes Wiz. Still feel :| about going HELLO THIS IS A POKE VOTE. Quote Archer (1): Kas Turtle (1): Ash Wiz (1): Turtle Wiz then votes on Shining: Quote Archer (1): Kas Turtle (1): Ash Wiz (1): Turtle Shining (1): Wiz It's a slow start but I still like Turtle latching on to me going '4 bein here not in doc' because it is a genuinely very vague phrase. But feels a bit odd that Turtle didn't vote me for it. TUN does vote me, but it might be a poke. Turtle ignores a slightly baity question I asked about being Wiz's teammate. Kind of feels like Turtle lost interest in that line of enquiry. IDK how I feel about that. Quote Archer (2): Kas, Xino Turtle (1): Ash Wiz (1): Turtle Shining (1): Wiz Kas (1): TUN Xino arrives to help me disrespec Archer. I'm willing to lean a bit more Village on it for how relaxed it is, as compared to his opportunistic Elim vote in LG89. Quote Archer (2): Kas, Xino Turtle (1): Ash Wiz (2): Turtle, Silho Shining (1): Wiz Kas (1): TUN Silho goes onto Wiz, and I shift from Archer to TUN. Quote Archer (1): Xino Turtle (1): Ash Wiz (2): Turtle, Silho Shining (1): Wiz Kas (1): TUN TUN (1): Kas Meaning that Wiz becomes temporary lead train. -Shining @s me about why I'm not willing to vote on Wiz, and takes his vote back after I explain. IDK, it just sort of feels ? to me but I still can't work out how this makes sense for E!Shining so maybe just NAI it, if not slightly V it. [COME BACK TO THIS LATER AND CHECK YOU'RE NOT TUNNELLING KAS] Silho asks who wants to die. I invite him to join me in death by voting on him. He then self-votes to turn it into a train of three. Realistically, just two. Quote Archer (1): Xino Turtle (1): Ash Wiz (2): Turtle, Bookwyrm Shining (3): Wiz, Kas, Silho Kas (1): TUN TUN (1): Kas Wiz joins the club of people who want to die. Xino joins the memeing. Bookwyrm votes Wiz for it. Still a ? vote. Can sort of see it as a test of conviction but it also sort of reads like Bookwyrm was just looking for a place to stash a vote. Avoidance of Shining and me as alternatives, theoretically Xino as well. If we're theorising a Bookwyrm-Silho team, this is the point it's a bit protective, because once Silho unvotes, a second lead train comes into being. But it's three hours after the game started, so I don't know it's worth looking too hard at that. But it's also always worth looking at who players ignore. Archer announces he has found nirvana and will no longer vote. I vote him in shock. Quote Archer (2): Xino, Kas Turtle (1): Ash Wiz (2): Turtle, Bookwyrm Shining (2): Wiz, Silho Kas (1): TUN TUN (1): JNV This gives us a three way tie between Archer, Wiz, and Shining. -JNV posts with no reaction or intervention whatsoever. This is at 0904hrs; I have voted Archer at 0825hrs and Archer posted at 0648hrs. Sticks out a bit to me because this is the exact opposite response and I'd almost expect JNV to flag this in some way. But JNV goes onto TUN. -Archer asks if JNV is softing silver dust. This is interesting in light of JNV not actually getting attacked (you'd expect the Shades want that out of circulation.) From what I can tell from the thread, there's nothing that suggests Xino might've had a tent, so that's a curious pass-up since JNV is arguably in the same kill bracket as Xino. -Wiz mentioned this and I mention this again: IDK how to feel about the fact that evidently, Ash, Wiz, and myself were more or less comfortable somewhat light V or null+ing each other C1. Either LG90 dead doc shenanigans or there's something odd there. Wiz unvotes Shining and goes Archer. This marks the point Archer becomes the lead train. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Kas, Wiz, Bookwyrm Turtle (1): Ash Wiz (1): Turtle Shining (1): Silho Kas (1): TUN TUN (1): JNV -Bookwyrm essentially follows Wiz onto Archer. The Shakespearean English indicates Bookwyrm read Wiz's post. Still want to know why Bookwyrm pulled off Wiz (and went on in the first place). Vote on Archer looks opportunistic. Wiz was at 1940hrs, and Bookwyrm posts at 2113hrs. -Archer posts at 2131hrs pointing out a V read of Xino, and that Turtle's poke vote early on looks Evil. Turtle posts at 2142hrs, so about nine minutes differential, potentially been working on the post a bit longer? The further the distance, the less it looks like a reflexive response to Archer IMO. Could go either way atm. Turtle votes Bookwyrm for lurking. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Kas, Wiz, Bookwyrm Turtle (1): Ash Kas (1): TUN TUN (1): JNV Bookwyrm (2): Turtle, Silho Silho votes Bookwyrm shortly after, at 2211hrs. Slightly overexplainy vibes from this: "fwiw im not alone in this cause i planned on voting him b4 i read this page". Looks a tad opportunistic as well. This is twice that Silho has followed Turtle onto a train despite also distrusting Turtle. In response to challenge from Archer about why Bookwyrm over himself or Turtle, Silho swaps to Turtle. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Kas, Wiz, Bookwyrm Turtle (2): Ash, Silho Kas (1): TUN TUN (1): JNV Bookwyrm (1): Turtle Sort of just deflects Archer's question with - voted before vc and vcs are Village until they aren't, which doesn't really shed any light on Silho's thought process. OH GOD HERE WE GO AGAIN I'M FREAKIN' TUNNELLING ON SILHO AGAIN AREN'T I. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ...Es ist Mittwoch, meine Duden >> Would you like to tunnel on some Evil today >> This vc continues to be the state of play nearly 1.5 hours to rollover. TUN unvotes me and goes for Wiz for sheeping. Which is interesting (even if we know he's V) because Bookwyrm sheeped too. Bookwyrm stealth activate? Quote Archer (3): Xino, Wiz, Bookwyrm Turtle (3): Ash, Silho, Kas TUN (1): JNV Bookwyrm (1): Turtle Wiz (1): TUN I do a really fast swap to TUN and from TUN to Turtle. This creates a 3-3 tie between Archer and Turtle. Silho still never really explained what he found sus about Turtle over Bookwyrm. -Archer's post [COME BACK TO IT, ARCHER'S POINTS SHOULDN'T BE DROPPED WITH HIS DEATH] I more or less commit to V!Archer and @ Bookwyrm asking if he wants to join me on Turtle instead. No dice. This is the state of play at fifteen minutes to EoD. Question: if Turtle is Evil, where is Turtle's teammate? Maybe JNV? Bookwyrm maybe? Come back to this later, but at this point, the main vote movement is from me. Archer was endangered - I moved off Archer and endangered Turtle instead. Turtle shows up nine minutes to EoD to self-pres on Archer. Guess Turtle doesn't like the 50% shot at death, but maybe that's what feels just a tad sensitive. Then again, I was trying to get Bookwyrm to help kill Turtle so... Quote Archer (4): Xino, Wiz, Bookwyrm, Turtle Turtle (3): Ash, Silho, Kas TUN (1): JNV Wiz (1): TUN Three minutes later, I hard-commit to saving Archer again. See that Shining, Turtle, and Ash are in the thread, recognise we need another train (it has to beat the four votes on Archer.) I V!read Wiz and the fact it needs four votes (I'm trying to save Archer, after all, even if Turtle does pull off) means that I need a CW I'm comfortable with. I @ them all and ask them if they will vote TUN since JNV's vote is staying put. Wiz is a non-starter for me. Ash is willing to go if Shining and Turtle are. Turtle being willing to go onto Archer for self-pres feels a bit... kind of wonder if Turtle has Silver Dust. Archer shows up to self-pres on Turtle. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Wiz, Bookwyrm, Turtle Turtle (4): Ash, Silho, Kas, Archer TUN (1): JNV Wiz (1): TUN Tie! Silho is fine with it and votes TUN. Will go Turtle if Xino defects. If Silho and Turtle are teamed, this is an odd ask as Silho might very well have to do it. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Wiz, Bookwyrm, Turtle Turtle (3): Ash, Kas, Archer TUN (2): JNV, Silho Wiz (1): TUN Turtle doesn't like a TUN CW. Question whether Turtle saw Archer's vote. Notable that Turtle is being choosy despite being potentially favoured CW - seems to come from a mindset where they care about the integrity of their reads, i.e. V. Shining likely sees Archer's vote and goes back. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Wiz, Bookwyrm, Turtle Turtle (4): Ash, Kas, Archer, Silho TUN (1): JNV Wiz (1): TUN I ask Shining belatedly if he wants to go back to Turtle after Archer voted Turtle. Shining goes back to TUN. I don't understand what is going on here. Two minutes to rollover. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Wiz, Bookwyrm, Turtle Turtle (3): Ash, Kas, Archer TUN (2): JNV, Silho Wiz (1): TUN At the same time, Archer unvotes from Turtle and goes onto TUN. This effectively locks the CW in place. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Wiz, Bookwyrm, Turtle Turtle (2): Ash, Kas TUN (3): JNV, Silho, Archer Wiz (1): TUN I recognise the problem and vote TUN. Quote Archer (4): Xino, Wiz, Bookwyrm, Turtle Turtle (1): Ash TUN (4): JNV, Silho, Archer, Kas Wiz (1): TUN Ash unvotes from Turtle and goes onto TUN. Think it's consistent with his view that he dislikes ties more than sudden wagons. A minute after, Wiz swaps to TUN. Quote Archer (3): Xino, Bookwyrm, Turtle TUN (6): JNV, Silho, Archer, Kas, Ash, Wiz Wiz (1): TUN Main issue is this feels like it is theoretically a lynch in which the Elims have low investment. Turtle's self pres put Archer in the lead. No idea what Archer's self-pres would've done. I'm the key player involved this time in terms of trying to get consensus for a TUN CW (sorry >>) to save Archer. I think the point too is: what are the odds the TUN train is pure? Tbf everyone voted so the Archer and TUN trains are not likely to be pure :| I am a fool what am I even saying. I need to check Ash's reads. Ash being willing to tiebreak onto TUN and still killing Archer is ??? Edited November 9, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 My before-bed notes: I wanted to use knife C1, because if I died with it then it is gone forever. That and I haven’t had the chance to vigi kill in a long time. It been a while. Also I was considering kill Archer as soon as he abandoned his no-vote. That was target one in my brain. Could have went for Archer and stabbed TUN, yes, but not much difference in results. Could also have insisted stay on Turtle but I was susp of TUN too. Turtle harder for me read. Ties interesting with Knives. Kill one of them; they exed, then no knife used but persistant danger of Violation still there. Other exed, then knife used and gone 4ever, but both tied ones gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Could have went for Archer and stabbed TUN, yes, but not much difference in results. Could've went for Archer and stabbed me, yes. Then interesting C2 Okay. Here's what it comes down to for me: 5 hours ago, Kasimir said: Archer (3): Xino, Bookwyrm, Turtle TUN (6): JNV, Silho, Archer, Kas, Ash, Wiz Wiz (1): TUN Everyone voted, in the end. We have exactly one holdout voter on Wiz: TUN, who flipped Village. The lack of energy in the early part of the cycle is explained by lots of votes going nowhere and a train on V!Archer. At thirty-three minutes to rollover, I swap off Archer and go onto Turtle, tying the two trains and bringing Turtle into contention. 17 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Archer (3): xinoehp512, The Wandering Wizard, The Bookwyrm Turtle (3): Ashbringer, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir Kasimir (1): The Unknown Novel The Unknown Order (1): JNV The Bookwyrm (1): Turtle I don't feel we saw much of a save Turtle drive from outside Turtle, who later breaks the tie. My TUN swing was explicitly a save Archer swing, and Shining was willing to vote Turtle if we could get Xino to defect, as was I. The counterpoint is that if we are postulating a team of two and I lean towards that given current distro, then I am not sure we see much of that anyway. The Elims could be comfortable with self-pres since this game has no vote manip. Though it also depends on their risk appetite. But the fact this sort of sat there for quite a bit until Turtle self-presed on Archer makes me feel as though there was some fundamental comfort with the EoD trains. But this brings us to a question. The road from here to: 5 hours ago, Kasimir said: Archer (3): Xino, Bookwyrm, Turtle TUN (6): JNV, Silho, Archer, Kas, Ash, Wiz Wiz (1): TUN involves a significant amount of hopping between TUN and Turtle. But we also know that Archer was Village, and I at least know I'm Village. E!Silho being willing to jump to save teammate Turtle is all very well and good, but then Silho would've had to bus Turtle if Xino showed up. This could be possible (see: QF62, though that was a Mat play), but that does feel a bit odd a calculus for E!Silho. I'm sort of stuck in the position of not really being able to believe the TUN train was pure (statistically kayana) but also, the bigger question. We know both the Archer and TUN trains collectively had to have Elims. This is because our only other side-train, the Wiz train, had just TUN and TUN flipped Village! What this entails: -Likely Elim participation on the TUN swing - but why do the Elims care about the TUN swing? Or to put it another way: why save Archer when you could just ML Archer? -Potential Elim participation on the Archer train - honestly just a <Xino, Bookwyrm> set. -Elims saw no reason to intervene and did not participate in the swing itself: <Xino, Bookwyrm, Turtle, JNV.> Part of my problem with this is that I'm not sure about the extent to which I'm fine with a Bookwyrm/JNV team. Current Reads: JEDI KNIGHT (Light Village): Spoiler Ash Not sure if I'm overdoing it, but feel E!Ash could've just stabbed me, exed Archer, and then called it a day without having to claim. That feels more damaging to me. I also feel it is hard to justify giving a Knife to the Elims and there hasn't been a counterclaim on the Knife front. The short of why I think it's hard to justify - volatility. Ash also had an opening post I liked, with immediate engagement, and I liked the PM question. Xino Xino feels borderline JEDI KNIGHT and PADAWAN for me. Xino's active votecount shows some thread engagement and his start is relaxed and a contrast to how he waded in for LG89 as an Elim. That being said, Xino's vote remained static on Archer, and I'd expect an Elim to stay put at EoD because no investment. However. Xino was attacked and self-protected, and I don't really feel a WGG is as likely in a game this fast-paced, and when protects cannot target the same player twice in a row. At the very least, I think that a provisional Village read is fair, and also that there are other plays E!Xino could make. PADAWAN (Mild Village): Spoiler Wiz A lot of this is based off the strength of that early C1 post and at some point, I feel there's only so long you can crutch on it, so may be willing to revise to INITIATE, depending. Nevertheless, some positive engagement from Wiz in terms of rules and thoughts, and Wiz was sick/is sick and recovering, so I sort of also feel that's how it goes. Last minute switch from Archer to TUN is a bit ? but to be fair, it is consistent with Wiz's reads. Mildly concerned about convergence between my early reads, Wiz's, and Ash's. Turtle I...don't like Turtle's poke vote. I really just don't. I liked Turtle picking up the doc thing, Turtle dropping it after felt not as good, though perhaps TUN's intervention helped there. Possible TMI? Turtle also vocally disliking the TUN train potentially felt like an Elim positioning themselves to criticise the train after that, for Village cred. But Turtle didn't do that, and moreover, Turtle just seemed to genuinely lost/confused. I'd expect a different reaction from an Elim in that situation since Turtle was indicated to be next as the CW if TUN wasn't viable. So I guess I go back and forth. Probably just anywhere between PADAWAN and INITIATE, honestly. INITIATE (Null +): Spoiler JNV I can't justify this one. My gut says Village but I can't put this much weight on my gut when I can't articulate it. JNV's willingness to commit to a vote here but not in LG90 is a stark contrast, but refusing to vote in this game carries with it penalties. JNV felt a bit disengaged or struggling to engage, and I do wonder if E!JNV would feel that way. That's the very flimsy basis of my INITIATE read, and I'm probably okay with revising, depending. ACOLYTE (Null -): Spoiler Bookwyrm I could move Bookwyrm up to Null, but honestly my issues with Bookwyrm boil down to opportunistic voting patterns. I don't know how much of that is associated with Bookwyrm's newness, so in theory, maybe Null is more appropriate. I'm also uncomfortable with how many people have Bookwyrm in their pool, though maybe I shouldn't I guess. Just makes me feel like Bookwyrm could be ML bait but I can't really justify that. Silho Similar reasons to Bookwyrm, honestly. By and large, voting patterns. I actually like Silho's early D2, but felt the Book-Turtle switch seemed fairly responsive to pressure from Archer, and got a bit of overexplaining vibes off the Turtle vote, which is something that sticks out to me a bit since Silho typically...hasn't been explaining his votes anyway. For the benefit of newer players who haven't seen me use this format before, my paranoia means I tend to be reluctant to give Moderate Village reads this early in the game, so my reads list is functionally depressed. I should maybe think of better labels, but I gotta live with it. As I said, this points me to Silho, but I'm having difficulty figuring out why E!Silho cares about a TUN swing. That's the main issue that stops me. Incidentally: what PMs did you all open, and in what hour? I opened a PM with Ash C1 at about an hour after the cycle began. I opened a PM with Xino C2 at nearly two hours after rollover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 4 hours ago, Kasimir said: Incidentally: what PMs did you all open, and in what hour? I opened a PM with Ash C1 at about an hour after the cycle began. I opened a PM with Xino C2 at nearly two hours after rollover. -C1 i had a PM with TUN which i opened around two hours after the cycle began, and C2 I opened a PM w wiz which I opened around 4 hours after the cycle began. (the above was meant to go below the stuff below but formatting is weird) ugh its slow :(((( wait how new is silho how likely is a bookwyrm/silho team? also I had a day off school yesterday but I’m gonna be far more busy today and probably wont be around during rollover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 10 hours ago, Kasimir said: Silho's rapid switch from Book to Turtle under challenge sort of looks ? - @Shining Silhouette - What motivated your swap to Turtle? You mentioned that you wanted to get a reaction from Book but I doubt your vote was really parked on Book for very long. This current cycle was actually the one that I wanted to test Book's reaction. Ash had just voted Bookwyrm and after Book replied almost instantly I wanted to see if I'd get another response by voting him here: 19 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said: 19 hours ago, The Bookwyrm said: Reasoning? Bookwyrm Anyway I switched to Turtle cause I didn't like their reads list and what they implied by saying those who post reads are more villagery. 10 hours ago, Kasimir said: Silho votes Bookwyrm shortly after, at 2211hrs. Slightly overexplainy vibes from this: "fwiw im not alone in this cause i planned on voting him b4 i read this page". Looks a tad opportunistic as well. This is twice that Silho has followed Turtle onto a train despite also distrusting Turtle. Lowkey didn't even remember Turtle had voted Wiz. I mean you're technically right, but at this point my suspicions aren't totally integrated- I need to look for teams more and not only look for suspicious players. Also I wasn't really suspicious of Turtle until I voted them, so I wasn't really "following onto a train while still distrusting them" @Kasimir don't know if I answered everything you asked, limited on time so I skimmed but if you have other concerns you can bring them up 2 minutes ago, Turtle said: wait how new is silho how likely is a bookwyrm/silho team? This is my sixth game, idk distro well enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Turtle said: -C1 i had a PM with TUN which i opened around two hours after the cycle began, and C2 I opened a PM w wiz which I opened around 4 hours after the cycle began. Presume that was behind your null+ of TUN D1, or? 2 minutes ago, Turtle said: wait how new is silho how likely is a bookwyrm/silho team? Silho started in LG88, had a good run as an Elim in QF62, and made clutch Village moves in LG89 and LG88, for which I will never underestimate him So yeah. IDK about the likelihood of a Bookwyrm/Silho team but I - like, how many of us have sussed Bookwyrm so far? Is it really a case of lack of commitment to the lynch that has kept Bookwyrm alive? Or are we just looking in the wrong direction? Nothing precludes everyone being collectively right - check out how many people sussed Mat last game but lacked commitment to push his lynch - but I do feel uncomfortable when that's the consensus and nothing much is happening because that kind of feels off. I admit part of my problem is I can't read Bookwyrm. Both Bookwyrm's D1 votes scream Evil to me, but the experience issue still confounds things so IDK if I'm looking at the right level of analysis here. Say JNV and Wiz - question for both of them is how long do I let the early clear persist for? It's worth at least asking myself: if I bracket that, where does my read of you go? I don't want to make too many guesses about team likeliness in retrospect because: A. strongly dependent on what rands Mat selected from, B. strongly dependent on Mat's GM meta, C. we've had new(er) player heavy Elim teams before, though rarely because of the high volatility problem. @Turtle Reckon you've said it before, but at this point, what is your speculated Elim team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bookwyrm Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 Gah...I'm re-thinking my life, and I am taking back my Silhouette unvote. I'm sorry, Silhouette.... It's a gut feeling I can't shake. And I don't want to risk the 40% chance of death that comes by not voting. Silhouette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 @Turtle @Shining Silhouette Or let me put it this way: In my SE experience so far, if you believe you've cracked it on C2, you've probably made a big mistake somewhere that will come to stab you in the back. That, and the circumstances don't make me fully ok with this. I would really like to not ML V!Silho if it is V!Silho as I feel bad enough about LG90, so I am extremely committed to trying to get this right, and this means @ing people and trying to get discussion going. 5 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: Anyway I switched to Turtle cause I didn't like their reads list and what they implied by saying those who post reads are more villagery. Fair. Does D1 EoD change your views of Turtle? And why the initial Book vote C1 then? 6 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: Also I wasn't really suspicious of Turtle until I voted them, so I wasn't really "following onto a train while still distrusting them" Fair enough. Certainly I think if you and Turtle are teammates, it is still quite hardcore to offer to lynch Turtle EoD if Xino moves. That's quite some commitment there. So am not thinking that is likely. 8 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: @Kasimir don't know if I answered everything you asked, limited on time so I skimmed but if you have other concerns you can bring them up You've probably mentioned this once already, but just to get it on one page, what's your thoughts on likely team composition right now? @The Bookwyrm - Same question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) Quote Fair. Does D1 EoD change your views of Turtle? ...yeah look I'm having a hard game I don't even know what I think anymore. I think I just gotta put together a reads list like I normally do to actually put things in context for me. If I don't die that is as my time is limited the next little bit Quote why tun?? what am i missing?? I like this, especially seeing TUN was vil Quote And why the initial Book vote C1 then? Cause his vote on Wiz felt like *now's a chance to vote for someone* out of nowhere It just felt opportunistic to me Quote You've probably mentioned this once already, but just to get it on one page, what's your thoughts on likely team composition right now? <Ash, Wiz, JNV> with Xino as conditional if they don't die soon edit: moved Ash to <> because about as much suspicion as Wiz Honestly this is more process of elimination than the specific players themselves Edited November 9, 2022 by Shining Silhouette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said: Gah...I'm re-thinking my life, and I am taking back my Silhouette unvote. I'm sorry, Silhouette.... It's a gut feeling I can't shake. And I don't want to risk the 40% chance of death that comes by not voting. Silhouette Can you put any other reasoning behind this other than gut? 2 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: <Ash, Wiz, JNV> with Xino as conditional if they don't die soon Am I in there because of my late TUN vote, as I said in a PM I only got back on late, quickly reread the thread and decided to vote on TUN, since archer was looking a lot more vil to me than in the begining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: <Ash, Wiz, JNV> with Xino as conditional if they don't die soon edit: moved Ash to <> because about as much suspicion as Wiz Why am I so tempted to V!read this and also E!read this at the same time. Why didn't I get N1ed. Why do I play SE. Why am I questioning my life and my choices. Wyrm, I miss you bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) Silho JNV Warmmha forgive me. Edited November 9, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Presume that was behind your null+ of TUN D1, or? yep i don’t have much of a team in mind per se, but my poe is <jnv bookwyrm silho> with a possible side of xino or very tentatively wiz, i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 6 hours ago, Kasimir said: Incidentally: what PMs did you all open, and in what hour? I opened a PM with Ash C1 at about an hour after the cycle began. I opened a PM with Xino C2 at nearly two hours after rollover. I opened a PM with Bookwyrm nearly three hours after rollover. My mind has been running with teams that include Shining, Books, JNV, and sometimes Turtle. But I think I've convinced myself, for now, of V!Turtle. Currently when rereading the thread. I've seen that JNV has only posted once each cycle to avoid the passive 40% chance of death and has also voted in both of those posts to avoid the other 40% of death. It could very well be that they only have time to post once a cycle, but I have no other strong reads. Basically Friend: Kas, Xino, Ash Peasant: Turtle Foe: Shining/Books, JNV Anything in Italics is conditional, could move up or down. Here's the current VC: Bookwyrm (1): Ash JNV (2): Wizard, Kas Turtle (1): Xino Silho (2): Books, JNV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 JNV for self-pres and POE I'll post a reads list next cycle if I'm still alive :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) smh wiz why is null peasant is shining/books either or? also idk when i’ll be back on and i don’t really want to die, so i’ll vote silho for now, might join the jnv wagon if i’m back on later and they haven’t said anything. edit: 2 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: JNV for self-pres and POE I'll post a reads list next cycle if I'm still alive :P. doesn’t the cycle end in an hour? i think you have time to send in a simple reads (haha simple rules) list before eod Edited November 9, 2022 by Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 Just now, Turtle said: smh wiz why is null peasant It comes from the shakespearan english that I started, but I don't have the energy for anymore. I had a cool idea for Jeffrey Jeffrey, but I don't have really any energy to RP about it. 1 minute ago, Turtle said: is shining/books either or? Yes, currently I don't see them as e/e but that could just be distancing, or it could be two villagers shooting each other. I forgot the JNV vote meme Spoiler 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Turtle said: smh wiz why is null peasant is shining/books either or? also idk when i’ll be back on and i don’t really want to die, so i’ll vote silho for now, might join the jnv wagon if i’m back on later and they haven’t said anything. edit: doesn’t the cycle end in an hour? i think you have time to send in a simple reads (haha simple rules) list before eod Truuuuu ok in depth comin if I survive *salute* Kas Bookwyrm, Turtle, Wiz Ash, JNV, Xino I'm very aware that the people I voted on last cycle have moved up a tier, but idk /shrug Literally just don't know this game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 An hour and two minutes remaining! Get those votes and actions in! Preferably sooner than 9:59:59! Wouldn't mind posting another stop sign gif or something though. Yknow what do whatever >> The Bookwyrm (1): Ashbringer JNV (3): Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette Turtle (1): xinoehp512 Shining Silhouette (2): JNV, The Bookwyrm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Shining Silhouette (2): JNV, The Bookwyrm Shining has another vote on him from turtle. The rest of the count is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: An hour and two minutes remaining! Get those votes and actions in! Preferably sooner than 9:59:59! Wouldn't mind posting another stop sign gif or something though. Yknow what do whatever >> The Bookwyrm (1): Ashbringer JNV (3): Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette Turtle (1): xinoehp512 Shining Silhouette (2): JNV, The Bookwyrm i’m voting silho rn but i think that looks good otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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