Quick Fix 63: Simple Rules

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, Turtle said:

edit: to add to kas’s question, does having silver dust used up affect the elim kill at all?

@Matrim's Dice - Feel like what Turtle is asking here is:

A. Is Silver Dust a passive? (Edited to add: i.e. does it need an action slot?)

B. Is Silver Dust a consumable? (i.e. burned once protecting from Violation then gone?)

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Vinnie furrowed his brow, and kicked over another stone. Gleaming spines, only a centimeter long but obviously intentional, stuck out of the bottom. Another chill ran down his spine. "No," he said. "This was intentional. Someone here has a death wish. For themselves, and all of us."

Smh @Ashbringer :eyes:

I know you owe me a Soother Spike but I already said I'm fine, you can keep it! You don't have to try to get the GM to stab me with spikes in games to come! >>

3 hours ago, Turtle said:

@The Bookwyrm if you aren’t elim, what do you think the elim team is? do you have any town reads (v reads) other than kas? 

Additional question, @The Bookwyrm. Who do you think we should roleblock this cycle?

Edited November 10, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer he/him]

Kas you’ve tagged me like 6 times this cycle 

Eating dinner rn, but I got some ideas.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Kas you’ve tagged me like 6 times this cycle 

Eating dinner rn, but I got some ideas.

Sorry my dude I blame bad habits from MR56

The last tag was at least a call-out :eyes:

6 hours ago, Turtle said:

team stuff will come later, if u want me to explain any of these in more detail just ask

Just to ask: any reason you have so many nulls at this point?

Also: Xino confirmed being the Happy Camper, does that affect your read of him? What about Ash's C1 knife?

[JNV]

Im dropping RP cause Im a bit too fussed  to get into the style and cause Im going to die so it doesnt really matter but like Im not inactive people keep saying my inactivity is suspicious but Ive always posted at like one post every 24 hours its just less obvious in games with longer cycles its not really a big deal but Im getting kinda irrationally fussed at it like one person said it then everyone was saying it and as far as I can tell thats like the only thing going for me and if theres other reasons do tell but yeah Im just a bit wobbled is it a recent thing like last game people were saying Id forgotten about the game cause I hadnt gotten on in a while like my low activity elvels are nothing new this is just me and gaaaaaah like its not a big deal it shoudlnt be a big deal but Im just fussed over it just very very fussed

Im kinda assuming I die today I get it really I do I havent done anything with merit apparently when I die look at the people who should know my standard activity levels and perpetuate the myth anyway I have opinions theyre probably wrong but Im committing myself to trusting Kasimir cause I dont think theres a world where I ever dont and cause I think evil them would realize Im a villager evils want at endgame cause Im really bad at it and just sort of marinate me cause like the only reason people have gone for me is cause they said it first as far as I can tell Im also committing to village Ashbringer I dont think the knife is really viable in elim hands plus 50 percent odds at death as evil is a bit much and Im tentatively committing myself to village xinoehp cause of the Kasimir protect now given these assumptions now given these assumptions Ive narrowed my evil pool to Bookwyrm Turtle Wizard

Wizard I dont really like how theyve just been sheeping Kasimir like crazy like every vote post and opniinon is just a Kasimir opinion and like I dont really remember the way they play but like I feel like they usually have a bit more original thought 

Bookwyrm I dont like their vote remove vote on Silhoeutte it just feels funny it feels like vanity more than and like their reads list is just nothing its just entirely nothing dressed up with lots of wrods and a weird ocnclusion 

Turtle well honestly I feel like my problem with Turtle is about them tonally not about actually reading them as evil they just dont play and communicate like Id expect and thats more of a me problem like Im sure they dont intend all of their statements to read like sarcasm so Im pretty sure thats just my brain being wobbly but like I have no reason to trust them

But the evils dont exist in isolation and theres at least one teammate so lets look at connections any connections at all

Wizards first reads list has Bookwyrm in the highest tier and Turtle in the lowest  but weirdly enough the reads list after has Bookwyrm in the lowest tier and Turtle in the middle but like italicized middle which apparently means could go up or down which really means they have no read on Turtle and this cycle they notably show a willingness to vote Bookwyrm that makes me a little hesitant to think theyre teamed cause like if Bookwyrm dies and the village mows thorugh the lower tiers Wizards not the first on the chopping block but theyre pretty early on in the line and if I get voted then Bookwyrm gets voted next kind of out of hand and same thing happens so yeah oh and by the way Wizard I do appreciate the memes 

Bookwyrm joke votes Wizard first and also like follows stylistically which feels organic in the most recent reads post they say Wizards kinda meh and Turtle like apparently theyve been voting with xinoeph but like heres the thing would evils really vote together when their lives arent on the line but yeah Im going to say Bookwyrm and Wizard mght not be teamed in a 2 evil world land but like where are the teammates if they exist like based on posts alone Id buy a Wizard Turtle team more easily than Bookwyrm Turtle cause I dont know if the evils would toss their votes on the same person twice in a row when that person is good but also like I think of Bookwyrm as more evil than Wizard and Im not entirely sure why like gaaaah I just dont know 

I kinda want to say more but also I got like three hours of sleep last night Im tired Im just going to vote Bookwyrm and be done with it I hope my reasons make sense also in the spirit of claiming and stuff I have silver dust so yeah no action accountability here sorry Ill be on for a bit but like do not expect brain poewr my brain is mush but Id be fine if people want to go for Wizard Im so tired please someone talk to me about life thinking is hard 

[Turtle they/them]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Just to ask: any reason you have so many nulls at this point?

um, i often have nulls? like the way i do null+/- is the same as the way some people do ‘slight vil/slight elim’, i think. i just phrase it differently.

xino having the tent doesn’t super change my read on them, just solidifies the null+. 

edit: jnv sry if my statements do read like sarcasm! if you’d like to talk abt life, my cat is adorable and he’s sleeping on me rn. earlier he got super freaked out because the faucet in the bathroom was left on a little bit and he couldn’t figure out where the sound was coming from, but he’s back to being a sleep sweet little kitty now,

Edited November 10, 2022 by Turtle

[Mat he/him]

46 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

A. Is Silver Dust a passive? (Edited to add: i.e. does it need an action slot?)

B. Is Silver Dust a consumable? (i.e. burned once protecting from Violation then gone?)

It is passive (does not need an action slot) and is not a consumable.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, JNV said:

Wizards first reads list has Bookwyrm in the highest tier and Turtle in the lowest  but weirdly enough the reads list after has Bookwyrm in the lowest tier and Turtle in the middle but like italicized middle which apparently means could go up or down which really means they have no read on Turtle

Question for you: if Wiz has been sheeping me, shouldn't he also have a positive Turtle opinion? I've hardy been quiet about the fact (especially in light of Xino's early Turtle vote) that I strongly believe that C1 EoD points towards V!Turtle rather than E!Turtle.

1 hour ago, JNV said:

as far as I can tell thats like the only thing going for me and if theres other reasons do tell

First, sorry to hear, vod. Definitely sucks to be having a rough game and then get @ for inactivity. But I maintain that while the arguments are phrased as inactivity ones, they're not just inactivity ones. Especially since basically only two people are currently making a push for you: most people who suspect you still suspect Bookwyrm more. I'm probably the main Villager making a push for you, and I can lay out my reasons, as I have at several points:

-PoE: I have reason to think every other player Village. We can argue I've made a mistake somewhere and I'd be happy to agree, but I am haunted by the fact that I at least have shallow, first-layer analysis for V!Wiz, V!Xino, V!Turtle, and I don't actually quite have that for you. It brings me back to TJ's principle, or the dictum that if a player is still null for you near endgame/lylo, you should be willing to vote on them. This was also the principle that had me voting on you in LG84.

-Kill doctrine: This point is fairly weak, I will agree. But I believe the fact the team risked a kill on me rather than going for Xino indicates a likely low profile Elim team, meaning we have to look for players with a low activity profile. You're in that set.

-Posts: Both your posts pinged me. We've PMed about your views on Archer, but the more I think about them, the more they feel off to me. Almost everyone in this game had some E!Archer credences, enough to vote him, or enough to kill him on Ash's part. Perhaps this is punishing you for being a better analyst than everyone else in the game, but you not responding to a post from Archer I would honestly consider JNV bait given your player profile and explaining it as a read that it is a V!Archer play is a judgement that has an anomalous confidence level, and looks like TMI to me. The E!certainty in your read of Wiz, and yet you arguing you could make a case for Turtle and Silho instead, along with fuzziness in your Silho read in the same post also pings me, and it feels as though you're trying to make a case for Silho. During quokkagate, I at least had a lingering gut feel you were Village. I badly want it to be true here but I simply don't get that off your posts.

-Elim Profile: This is similar to the kill doctrine point, but we are back to C1 where we know that the Archer and TUN trains statistically cannot be pure. So we have to ask where the Elims went. Given my Wiz credences, and the fact that Silho flipped Village, and it would be hard for Ash to be Evil with the Knife, we are looking at an almost completely Village-driven swing. I think I would go so far as to say Wiz swapping to TUN in light of the fact the TUN train was already dominant feels like a somewhat unnecessary move for E!Wiz. There's also C2 where there's...functionally, everyone voted. The main suspicious vote movements, if you like, involved me starting a train on you (I'm Village), and xino breaking the tie in your favour (we could speculate E!Xino but that more or less requires E!you and has some prima facie plausibility issues due to Xino blocking the kill twice now. Also, given prima facie Village plausibility for Xino, any world in which I remotely entertain E!Xino is going to more or less require you to flip E first - I am not going to bork the order of inference again.) Possibly Turtle on Shining. The main answer has to be that the Elims have not been fairly active in the voting. Whether by coincidence or otherwise, this once again reintroduces you into our suspect pool.

1 hour ago, JNV said:

Wizards first reads list has Bookwyrm in the highest tier and Turtle in the lowest  but weirdly enough the reads list after has Bookwyrm in the lowest tier and Turtle in the middle but like italicized middle which apparently means could go up or down which really means they have no read on Turtle and this cycle they notably show a willingness to vote Bookwyrm that makes me a little hesitant to think theyre teamed cause like if Bookwyrm dies and the village mows thorugh the lower tiers Wizards not the first on the chopping block but theyre pretty early on in the line and if I get voted then Bookwyrm gets voted next kind of out of hand and same thing happens so yeah oh and by the way Wizard I do appreciate the memes 

I think the issue with suggesting a Wiz/Turtle team: what does E!Wiz do when Turtle is endangered C1? The most likely teammate for E!Turtle is, unfortunately, within you/Bookwyrm/me, and as I pointed out in a response to Ash last cycle, there are fundamental plausibility issues requiring E!Kas to make some questionable and nonsensical decisions for a Turtle/Kas team to be viable.

Also I actually sort of agree with Illwei on progression - but fair, this is worth asking. @The Wandering Wizard, why the high positive for Bookwyrm early?

At the same time, I do expect players to revise their views. That's kind of how this game works. I myself was bouncing between E!Silho and V!Silho last cycle, which is fairly insane and extreme if you think about it, given Silho was in my lowest tier.

I'd also flag that you've played with V and E Wiz flavours now: do you feel Wiz's current tone is consistent with E!Wiz in LG90? Because I do think that if it's E!Wiz this game, and I don't rule that out of hand, Wiz is playing with significantly more engagement than he did in LG90. It's hard to explain what I mean, but he was viscerally sidelining himself over the course of LG90. He is more interested in engaging with thoughts here, and it's a mode shift. You could postulate it's a team that is making the difference, but then we're back to the question of who Wiz's partners are, such that they can change how Wiz plays Evil within a single game?

Two more questions for you:

-Does this mean you are committing to a <Wiz, Turtle> team at this point in the game?

-If you had a roleblock, who do you submit for a roleblock?

Cards on the table: I'm engaging with you this extensively because I do think you are Evil, but like with Silho, I acknowledge I can be wrong and want to give us that chance, on both sides. I'd really rather not commit to MLing you if you are Evil [Edited to add: This should read Village. 1 hour sleep week go!], but either way, I will admit Bookwyrm's most recent post pings me as so Evil I am now leaning towards a Bookwyrm exe just a little.

55 minutes ago, Turtle said:

um, i often have nulls? like the way i do null+/- is the same as the way some people do ‘slight vil/slight elim’, i think. i just phrase it differently.

xino having the tent doesn’t super change my read on them, just solidifies the null+. 

Fair enough.

I ask about Xino because Xino didn't just claim to have the tent but to have blocked the C1 and C2 kill. (Which you were asking about.) In my view, given no other counterclaim, that makes it two solid pro-Village moves from him, unless you're entertaining WGG worlds right now. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Kasimir

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Also I actually sort of agree with Illwei on progression - but fair, this is worth asking. @The Wandering Wizard, why the high positive for Bookwyrm early?

 

My tiers the first round was just purely if I thought they had any vil lean at all, they went in the top tier. Middle was I had no bearing on them at all. Bottom were the people I suspected the most. Bookwyrm and JNV were possibly, because I had convinced myself that they were village instead of null. And it shifted as I interacted more with bookwyrm. Here's the exact post for reference.

Spoiler

On 11/8/2022 at 5:40 AM, The Wandering Wizard said:

Doth not the rules sayest, 'thy failure to slay thine enemy, shall be thy doom.'

 

I felt like crem yesterday, but now I have at least enough energy to try to help.

Shining

  Reveal hidden contents

 Forsooth my Kas PM, wast made at 1257hrs, yesterday.

Thy friends lie in Kas, Ash, and possibly JNV/Bookwyrm

Thy servants lie in Shining and Xino

I beseech thee to see the knaves, Archer, TUN, and Turtle

Edit: I speak with bad shakesperean english now

And here's my C2 reads list

Spoiler

10 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I opened a PM with Bookwyrm nearly three hours after rollover.

My mind has been running with teams that include Shining, Books, JNV, and sometimes Turtle. But I think I've convinced myself, for now, of V!Turtle.

Currently when rereading the thread. I've seen that JNV has only posted once each cycle to avoid the passive 40% chance of death and has also voted in both of those posts to avoid the other 40% of death. It could very well be that they only have time to post once a cycle, but I have no other strong reads. 

Basically

Friend: Kas, Xino, Ash

Peasant: Turtle

Foe: Shining/Books, JNV

Anything in Italics is conditional, could move up or down. 

Here's the current VC:

Bookwyrm (1): Ash

JNV (2): Wizard, Kas

Turtle (1): Xino

Silho (2): Books, JNV

So currently I'd put them about

Friend: Kas, Xino, Ash

Aquantience: Turtle 

Servant: None

Foe: JNV, Bookwyrm

I'm still more focused on E!JNV than E!Bookwyrm, but I'll sleep on it and see what a considerably less tired brain can make this. >>

[JNV]

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

-Kill doctrine: This point is fairly weak, I will agree. But I believe the fact the team risked a kill on me rather than going for Xino indicates a likely low profile Elim team, meaning we have to look for players with a low activity profile. You're in that set.

I feel like you of all people should know Id never kill you but ok

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

-Posts: Both your posts pinged me. We've PMed about your views on Archer, but the more I think about them, the more they feel off to me. Almost everyone in this game had some E!Archer credences, enough to vote him, or enough to kill him on Ash's part. Perhaps this is punishing you for being a better analyst than everyone else in the game, but you not responding to a post from Archer I would honestly consider JNV bait given your player profile and explaining it as a read that it is a V!Archer play is a judgement that has an anomalous confidence level, and looks like TMI to me. The E!certainty in your read of Wiz, and yet you arguing you could make a case for Turtle and Silho instead, along with fuzziness in your Silho read in the same post also pings me, and it feels as though you're trying to make a case for Silho. During quokkagate, I at least had a lingering gut feel you were Village. I badly want it to be true here but I simply don't get that off your posts.

Honestly youre right aabout the information thing but the problem is you asked me after Archer flipped which really colors my view of the past I have severe problems with objectivity of my own thoughts and trying to excuse away my own inaction

34 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'd also flag that you've played with V and E Wiz flavours now: do you feel Wiz's current tone is consistent with E!Wiz in LG90? Because I do think that if it's E!Wiz this game, and I don't rule that out of hand, Wiz is playing with significantly more engagement than he did in LG90. It's hard to explain what I mean, but he was viscerally sidelining himself over the course of LG90. He is more interested in engaging with thoughts here, and it's a mode shift. You could postulate it's a team that is making the difference, but then we're back to the question of who Wiz's partners are, such that they can change how Wiz plays Evil within a single game?

Of course its not conisstent with LG90 Wizard but its plausibly similar enough it could be reactionary honestly I dont know I pretend to be more confident than I am and considering how unconfient I come across in my posts thats saying something like I just dont know ok Im at the point where instead of having irrationa lsuspicions Im just staring at my screen and trying to figure out who I wouldnt be mad at myself for voting out and losing because of it 

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

-Does this mean you are committing to a <Wiz, Turtle> team at this point in the game?

I mean not really cause like Im voting Bookwyrm but thats more of a head in hands wobbly thinking bit than actual anything Im tired I dont really know anything

50 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

-If you had a roleblock, who do you submit for a roleblock?

Wizard silver dust isnt an action 

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Cards on the table: I'm engaging with you this extensively because I do think you are Evil, but like with Silho, I acknowledge I can be wrong and want to give us that chance, on both sides. I'd really rather not commit to MLing you if you are Evil, but either way, I will admit Bookwyrm's most recent post pings me as so Evil I am now leaning towards a Bookwyrm exe just a little.

Ill be honest I know I dont really have a way to prove you wrong I dug this grave myself I dont have any merits or proof in my favor I dont have a real way to convince you of anything and honestly Im at the point in the game where I would normally put a lot less effort into providing any defense of my actions and just let it go except its practically lylo so yeah you get midnight oil JNV logic theres absolutely no reason wy you should trust me and the only reason Im trying is cause its actually important strangely enough but listen if you cnat find me village then go with yoru extensive list of reasons why Im evil and dont let me psych you out of it honestly Im too tired to be trying to debate right now

Ill stick around for like another half hour but Im going to sleep early tonight so yeah

[Kasimir he/him]

43 minutes ago, JNV said:

I feel like you of all people should know Id never kill you but ok

N1, I'd agree. But I think you'd do it out of necessity at some point: you acknowledged in LG84 you needed my death earlier than Orlok's, for instance. But I'll take the point.

45 minutes ago, JNV said:

trying to figure out who I wouldnt be mad at myself for voting out and losing because of it 

Question: why are we at lylo now? As far as we can tell, we're not. In a 4/3 world, we are, but based on the current set of claims:

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Wiz - Jeffrey Jeffrey - Silver Dust
• Archer - Gale - Crewmember
• Kas - Silas Keen - Crewmember
• Turtle - Old Ben - Fenweed Sap
• The Unknown Novel - Mat Rims - Crewmember
• Bookwyrm - Wylir
• Ash - Not Sure Who - Knife
• JNV - Jal - Silver Dust
• Shining Silhouette - Jo - Crewmember - Fenweed Sap
• Xino - Onyx - Tent

This is a fairly protect light environment and makes me inclined to think it's a two-man team. Not impossible to be three man, but with Turtle claiming a single charge of Fenweed, and one Tent, I'm not sure how Village handles that, especially if Ash had died from misstabbing. Too much volatility.

49 minutes ago, JNV said:

its plausibly similar enough it could be reactionary

?

versus:

Broad thoughts beyond paranoia sowing.

Attempt to engage with and reflect on rules in a way that enables game solving - possibilities resolved in a Village-positive way rather than the way he peddled E!Kas fearlynch in LG90.

Agree it's not a full 180 and there's some continuity there but I think the fundamental orientation of Wiz's analysis is dissimilar enough that we're back to the prima facie problem, which is that there's prima facie reason to think him Village. To be clear, in this context, my point of arguing is because if you're right about Wiz (and I acknowledge you could be), then there is a problem in my thoughts somewhere, and someone will find it.

57 minutes ago, JNV said:

Ill be honest I know I dont really have a way to prove you wrong I dug this grave myself I dont have any merits or proof in my favor I dont have a real way to convince you of anything and honestly Im at the point in the game where I would normally put a lot less effort into providing any defense of my actions and just let it go except its practically lylo so yeah you get midnight oil JNV logic theres absolutely no reason wy you should trust me and the only reason Im trying is cause its actually important strangely enough but listen if you cnat find me village then go with yoru extensive list of reasons why Im evil and dont let me psych you out of it honestly Im too tired to be trying to debate right now

Yeah but this is a game in which there is no Confirmed Village Seeker, you know? We don't get proofs. We always get balance of probabilities. I will note that I do find that standards of proof issue here a tad concerning. That being said, my attention is very much drawn by Bookwyrm's post, and I'm starting to think that minimally, flipping Bookwyrm this cycle could give you some space. Bookwyrm's last post, in all fairness, rings so Evil I think that's more worth pursuing.

But also, please take care of your own health? RL > game, and if you are this worn ragged, take care of yourself first. Even if the Village loses the game because of this, it's worth it if you are not screwing your own health over.

1 hour ago, JNV said:

Ill stick around for like another half hour but Im going to sleep early tonight so yeah

Please get some good rest!

JNV

Bookwyrm

[Ashbringer he/him]

Okay. I haven't done a real reads list in a while, so here goes.

Village:

Spoiler

Ash

Hey! That's me! But also just because this is a decent place to put it, me using the Knife C1 has a few implications. For one thing, don't see any world where both I and Xino could be evil: that team would need to decide to simultaneously do a WGG/WBG using Xino's protect and use their one shot kill ability, which... why. For another thing, that Elim team would need 3 people: Ash to use the Knife, Xino to use the Tent, and one more to actually put in the Elim kill. And I think we can rule out it being a 3 man team.

Granted, I personally don't think the Elim team having a Knife makes any sense, as why risk a 50% chance of death to get one Villager down when dying through the exe gives a much better chance of killing an a Villager via Violation. If you need a specific person down, just use the Elim kill. However, being Village I am slightly biased against any E!Ash compositions.

 

Xino

Howdy campers! Xino be the Lurcher for this journey, and he's already blocked two kills. 

Does anyone have an argument why E!Xino would do this? Similar to my Knife, no one's counterclaimed his Tent. One WBG I could potentially see, but it doesn't make that much sense in a game where who lives and dies is so unpredictable. And even if it was a WBG, the blocked kill on Kasimir then makes so little sense, because it kept this turn from being exelo. 

 

Kasimir:

Spoiler

Kasimir

So Kas has proved, as often, that he wants to drive discussion and the exe votes. Also pretty much everyone trusts him, and he was attacked by Elims and saved by Xino. Pretty solid reasons to Village-read.

However... 

Part of me wonders. A lot of the LG90 dead doc (well, not a lot, but a decent amount based on the scale of any other dead doc) was on Kas vs Ash Elim interactions, with Kas putting an emphasis on E!Kas fearing V!Ash, at least to some degree. Obviously, I'm still alive; although Kas went for me the cycle before Exelo both times he pulled Elim in recent times. But this feels... strange. Also Kas branching out in PMs to me a good amount and an offhand mention of me working to pocket him. That and a seeming lack of anti-Kas-leading-the-village pressure, and Kas directing two executions. Notably a mostly-village train completely off Turtle and onto TUN.

However however, I don't see E!Kas going for a WBG on himself cycle 2. Same issue as E!Xino, as it just takes away from exelo. And Kas being Elim without Xino makes even less sense.

I just don't want E!Kas to get away with absolutely no suspicion. So here's a little suspicion for you, Kas. 

Or maybe that's what I want you to think :eyes:

Null:

Spoiler

Wizard

I'd have to go look at Wizard some more. A lot of people early V-Read Wiz, and they've been around, but they've also been pretty strongly against E!Bookwyrm (or at least pushing JNV first - granted the JNV push experienced more pushback than TUN/Turtle.

Turtle

The last survivor of the D1 brawls. Parts of Turtle still feel strange, but they've also been around... another one I should also go and look at.

Null-:

Spoiler

JNV

Inactive. A lot has been said about this, and while an inactive or uncaring Elim team makes sense (uncaring in the sense that they don't have a stake in whether V!Archer or V!TUN get exed), JNV also has just been inactive. More engagement would be nice though. Just... yeah I'd say this fits.

Elim:

Spoiler

Bookwyrm

A lot of the inactivity issues that JNV has, but is more actually active and feels... once pressured they ended up posting and interacting a bit more. Leaves me inclined to lurking as (more of) a strategy than IRL things. That and if Xino, a strong Village read, had chosen differently, JNV would be exed, while Bookwyrm never had that pressure.

 

Most of this is justifying the village reads in more objective ways, but I stand by Bookwyrm being a decent exe target.

Also if I die tonight don't let Kas run over the Village 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

That and a seeming lack of anti-Kas-leading-the-village pressure

Honestly, there's an Araris response I could make here that I'm really itching to say

But it's Araris's line, and I feel that my saying it would be anathema to who I am

Let's just say...

This exists for a reason :eyes:

Spoiler

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

and Kas directing two executions. Notably a mostly-village train completely off Turtle and onto TUN.

Sure, but I already responded to that last cycle. What are your thoughts on it?  

E!me doesn't redirect a train off Turtle and onto TUN. There's no point in sticking my neck out there to kill someone who explicitly and strongly endorsed V!Kas! Even worse, by doing so, E!me attracts attention and leaves V!Archer alive, instead of quietly letting an Archer ML slip through. Why is that reasonable from E!Kas's perspective?

We could argue that E!me does it to save E!Turtle, but as you pointed out, me being partnered with E!Turtle makes even less sense. There is no reason for me to rock things when E!Turtle had a nice and unobjectionable self-pres vote against V!Archer, endangering him. Even worse, E!me has no reason to go off V!Archer and onto E!Turtle, making E!Turtle the CW!

It sounds odd to say it, but when Araris sort of asked this during LG73, it was a bit of a mindblowing moment for me, because I realised the 'how does this make sense to E!player?' heuristic is useful in trying to figure out if doing X makes someone Evil

My whole point of the TUN CW was that I wanted to save Archer, who I'd started to robustly V-read, but not at the expense of Wiz, who I also V-read, and Turtle was never going to consent to CW on Turtle. Since I think you'll agree we're not E/E, and so I had no way of knowing you'd be knifing Archer (to the point I immediately leapt to the very strong conclusion Archer was NKed, which we now know is false - check out early C2), it's reasonable my calculations had to be made with the assumption Archer was going to survive.

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Wizard

I'd have to go look at Wizard some more. A lot of people early V-Read Wiz, and they've been around, but they've also been pretty strongly against E!Bookwyrm (or at least pushing JNV first - granted the JNV push experienced more pushback than TUN/Turtle.

Turtle

The last survivor of the D1 brawls. Parts of Turtle still feel strange, but they've also been around... another one I should also go and look at.

I don't fundamentally disagree with this tier and I think it's good someone is covering all bases. But I also will add that I have them as Light V to null+ at this juncture. More on that later. We don't substantively disagree on tiers otherwise.

---

So I was going to suggest doing a holdout train with either both @Turtle and @xinoehp512 or only Xino, protecting them from Violation and guaranteeing they'll be able to roleblock/protect this cycle. But when I crunch the maths and pathwalk, I don't see this leading to a superior set of outcomes, meaning that train discipline looks to be our best shot. Unless someone can see where a holdout train makes sense, suggest everyone maintain train discipline.

FWIW, we cannot afford a divided train next cycle as it will be lylo if we ML. In that world, we still discuss widely but we subsequently need to consolidate on a single train or risk an Elim hammer. If I'm dead by then, whoever is alive, please remember train discipline.

---

I'm going for class soon and then planning to nap, so my reads will be cruder than usual. I'll expand it if/when I can have more rest. There is no guarantee I will be back by EoD because I'm that dead inside, unfortunately.

MODERATE VILLAGE:

Spoiler

• Xino

In any other game where WGG isn't mentioned, Xino would have solid Village credentials for blocking two Elim kills. As Ash pointed out, the second one is especially striking because it pushed lylo back. Neither JNV nor Bookwyrm claimed Lurcher, either. In my view, this gives high plausibility to the idea Xino is a Lurcher - there are so many V!affecting death mechanisms in this game that if we have a single Lurcher, and a roleslite distro, they're far more likely to be Village than Evil. That's Xino. Actively trying to solve the game as well.

• Ash

Still liked his opening post. Reflexively solvy in a way I don't think most Elims would think to do off the bat. Knife IMO makes him very likely Village - E!Ash MLs Archer and stabs me C2 and never claims the kill and grabs thread control. Also the volatility of the knife means there's no really good Elim distro involving a knife, IMO. Three man team world and knife is too harsh on the Village, unless the stabber is Village (hi Ash!) Otherwise, two man team with knife is too volatile - too easy to die and leave a solo Elim off the bat C2.

LIGHT VILLAGE:

Spoiler

• Wiz

Was sick C1, and IMO his play (as I've argued earlier) feels more engaged and interested in the game than E!him was in LG90. I also still think that first post of his doesn't come out that fast if Wiz ended up with a doc. Hard to see why E!Wiz goes TUN over Archer D1, in voting. Still, I could see an E!Wiz world, I just don't think it is very likely.

• Turtle

Honestly some of Turtle's takes make me uncomfortable, but I don't know if E!Turtle thinks to claim fenweed, knowing this means they'll be expected to roleblock. It could happen than they expected their teammate would put in the kill, but still. Turtle's D1 EoD reads very good to me - genuine confusion and resistance to a TUN CW even though Silho was expressing willingness to go back and lynch Turtle, meaning resisting a TUN CW isn't in E!Turtle's interests. This sort of reads consistency under pressure makes me lean V on Turtle.

NULL-:

Spoiler

• JNV

I've laid out my case as it is. I'm not unsympathetic to JNV's replies, but I feel that JNV stressing there is no way to prove themselves Village sort of trips a red flag for me. I don't know if I'm tunnelling - I could be. But it reminds me of E!Mat in LG68:

Quote

  On 8/15/2020 at 7:45 PM, Kasimir said:

I sent in the order to remove Progression from Araris and then swapped targets to Mat.

I used the Surge. I spared Araris. I won a kayana point. Almighty forgive me.

I see. I am left with no way to prove myself.

I'm getting a bit of déjà vu right now. Let's try to make this a QF46 scenario, alright?  

It was a bit of a ? moment for me in the game because roles aren't the be all end all. Villagers 'prove' themselves all the time by their thoughts, by engaging in the game, by their votes. We don't have a Confirmed Village Seeker in this game. For that matter, we don't have that in Tyrian either. We always have to make probabilistic calls, based on what we find most plausible. The idea that they are suddenly locked in a corner when most of the thread is currently on board for Bookwyrm just feels odd to me. 

Not sure about the willingness to vote Wiz either. Makes sense, and also, yes, this is where I feel I'm possibly tunnelling, but JNV said they believe this is lylo. (It most likely isn't.) But if you believe it's lylo, why do you split the trains? You shouldn't be going off with someone onto Wiz. The one time the Village cannot afford train splitting is at lylo!

EVIL:

Spoiler

• Bookwyrm

Was excessive extra vote on main trains on C1 (Archer, fourth vote), and C2 (Silho, third vote.) For a player with little input, I don't like that. Produced a reads list C3 after facing significant pressure C2, which seems to suggest (I agree with Ash's assessment) a deliberate lurker strategy. When presented with vote from Xino, refused to self-pres on JNV. Admittedly early in cycle, but Bookwyrm's hesitance still feels significant for a new player.

I go for class and sleep now. Hope to be back by before rollover, but if I do not:

Glory to the Village.

[Turtle they/them]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

FWIW, we cannot afford a divided train next cycle as it will be lylo if we ML

uh, i’ve been thinking abt this cos something’s been nagging me abt it

we’re at 2 v 5, assume we ml and get an nk

we’re at 2 v 3 lylo buttt

2 v 3 correctly exe get an nk and violation

1 v 1

so like, barring knife shenanigans and items, i think we are at lylo?

edit:

2 v 3 ml nk

2 v 1

yeah ok

Edited November 10, 2022 by Turtle

[Kasimir he/him]

53 minutes ago, Turtle said:

uh, i’ve been thinking abt this cos something’s been nagging me abt it

we’re at 2 v 5, assume we ml and get an nk

we’re at 2 v 3 lylo buttt

2 v 3 correctly exe get an nk and violation

1 v 1

so like, barring knife shenanigans and items, i think we are at lylo?

edit:

2 v 3 ml nk

2 v 1

yeah ok

Just got out of class and my brain is dead after convolutional neural networks ;-; Gonna go sleep now.

Ok. So that does basically really nuke any notion of a holdout train. No go, train discipline better. I wouldn't super say lylo because we do have a shot if we can force them to withhold the kill, e.g. via you roleblocking, or if Xino can stop a kill, which is why I've been trying to see if we can plan/work for that scenario - if so, we go 4-2 into the next Day, with the hope Xino can manage an intercept, which maybe gives us a bit more of a chance/breathing room if we ML. Still, I don't like the risk involved, so unless you can show calculations about the holdout train leading to a better set of outcomes, I now feel maintaining train discipline is the better route.

Yeah okay, so Plan A: try not to ML. Agree Bookwyrm looks more decisive as a train, and is our best shot if we absolutely have to take it. No matter how much I rethink, prima facie reason for V!Ash, V!Xino, some reason for V!you, V!Wiz, and Bookwyrm's last post is just way too off.

Plan B: try to do clutch RBing  

Edited to add:

Right before I forget-

One factor that inclines me to V!Turtle besides the C1 EoD screaming is that as much as I think Turtle's been a bit weird, it's sort of the same as what Ash said but with regard to Turtle instead of Xino.

E!Xino doesn't make sense because a WGG/WBG with me wastes time when we could be 4/2 (had I not been saved) and thus 2/2 with a NK and a successful ML.  

Thing with E!Turtle is I'm struggling to see how Turtle doesn't just...not claim the Fenweed Sap, roleblocks Xino, and assures a kill. Even if Xino says the next cycle he's been roleblocked, so what? No one knows who the Fenweed Sap was with, players can lie, and we'd probably be shooting blindly into the <Turtle, JNV, Bookwyrm> set. You could potentially get a ML depending on how much doubt was sown about Xino's claim, which is a good set-up into the next cycle, with me dead. 

The only world in which Turtle can't roleblock is with a Turtle/Xino team but then Turtle doesn't even need to put in a roleblock and can just submit the kill, no one knows any better if Xino claims to have been roleblocked.

Not sure how convincing that is with the new lylo numbers but I wanted it out here anyway since @Ashbringer (and I am, admittedly) relying on similar reasoning with Xino. But given Xino and Turtle weren't in especial danger last cycle, difficult to see the motivation for such a play when they can just collect their free kill. So all in all...also points me to V!Turtle thereabouts.

Ok sleep 4 real .__.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Kasimir

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Bookwyrm

JNV

Spoiler

I was trying something, but I slept on it and you all went after Bookwyrm and his style seems wildly different from the previous game. It's this post right here that ticks all the boxes for me

In it he puts turtle and xino as elim reads and JNV as a very slight elim read. Putting them in the suspicious category and it seems like he's trying to distance himself for JNV. This is assuming a E!JNV world. But the post made me connect JNV to Bookwyrm even more, so if Bookwyrm flips evil, then that would make me look more at JNV.

 

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

I don't know what the vote count is, so this isn't really self-pres....

But I'm switching from Xino to JNV.

Just the better option for my current situation.

[Mat he/him]

An hour and ten minutes remaining in the cycle!

• The Bookwyrm (5): Ashbringer, xinoehp512, JNV, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard
• JNV (1): The Bookwyrm

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, The Bookwyrm said:

I don't know what the vote count is, so this isn't really self-pres....

But I'm switching from Xino to JNV.

Just the better option for my current situation.

Bookwyrm, question. How is this exactly the better option since it's not self-pres? 

[Ashbringer he/him]

@Turtle, vote pls? :eyes:

 

Also - there's something I noticed, something I kinda wanted to wait until JNV wouldn't likely be on to see. The Exe acts as a roleblock. The Execution is first out of everything in the OoA, and I asked and an Exed Elim can't put in the Elim kill. So if the team is only Bookwyrm and JNV, either JNV put in the Elim kill when he was on, or there won't be one tonight.

What we do with that I'm not entirely sure, but there it is.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@Turtle, vote pls? :eyes:

 

Also - there's something I noticed, something I kinda wanted to wait until JNV wouldn't likely be on to see. The Exe acts as a roleblock. The Execution is first out of everything in the OoA, and I asked and an Exed Elim can't put in the Elim kill. So if the team is only Bookwyrm and JNV, either JNV put in the Elim kill when he was on, or there won't be one tonight.

What we do with that I'm not entirely sure, but there it is.

That's why the hope was to force the kill to be withheld by Turtle RBing JNV... 

Even in an E!Turtle or E!Wiz world, they will likely withhold it to force a JNV ML. Am currently waiting for Turtle to announce their RB target shortly before rollover. 

[Turtle they/them]

RBing JNV

edit: was that too early?

currently viewing is:

-ash

-bookwyrm

-xino

-kas

Edited November 10, 2022 by Turtle

[Ashbringer he/him]

Oh I see.

aaaaaah

[Kasimir he/him]

Allons-y! 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

I'm also here!

I don't think it was too early

[Mat he/him]

Time!

No funny gif today :(((