Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Shining Silhouette said:

@The Unknown Novel, might appreciate a shield sent this way also

Noted, but no guarantees . 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Time! Rollover might go a little long tonight but should be within the hour.

[Ashbringer he/him]

LG89 Day 4: Present And Lost

KeSaam swept the path of his rock garden.

A kandra's place was in the Homeland. The Contracts kept them safe.

He tried to remember what it was like, the day the council of the Second Generation had reached the decision. Contracts to be modelled on the First Contract, to bind them all, as the First had been bound, generations of kandra to come. KeSaam had not spoken. He had wanted the peace of his rock garden. The peace of the Homeland. But he remembered the fires and the knives of volcanic glass.

He remembered what it was like to have all volition and voice stolen by the Flaw.

He remembered TarKiin storming out of the council, face grim. "The Contract is a mistake," he had said, that day. Pleaded, perhaps. "You cannot intend to bind every single kandra in perpetuity—"

"We do."

KeSaam no longer remembered which of the Second had spoken. Which of the council.

"And if they disagree?"

"A stray kandra is a danger to us all," said the council member. "Then we imprison them for the safety of us all."

"Imprisonment will not stop dissent," TarKiin said.

"Would you have us kill?"

It had not, KeSaam thought, been a demand. It had been a prediction. The day would come, TarKiin had seen, when the kandra would turn on each other, Second on Third, when even imprisonment could not hold back the clash that had been building since the day the council of the Second had chosen a path and bound everyone to it by threats. 

You could not hold back the rockfall.

He had never liked the Contracts.

He had felt happiest in the Homeland. In his rock garden.

The rock glinted in the glow from the lantern. It was a smooth rock, tumbled in some subterranean river or other, and dark and heavy in his hand when he'd picked it off the stream bed. He'd collected it in the days before the Contracts, the days of fire and knives. It had been a peaceful day, that day. He had listened to the song of the water, let it carry him off into a calm darkness without humans and their demands and the threat they posed. Without fear.

It was the first rock in his garden. Some of the later rocks had come from the human cities, the sunlit world. He could not have collected them, he did not think, if not for the Contracts.

It did not make the Contracts right. The Contracts simply were. And more than anything else, KeSaam understood duty. You did what you had to, because it had to be done. Because you hoped that by doing your bit, you made the world just a slightly better place. Because you were a single rock in a garden.

He was happiest in his rock garden. That never changed.

He hung the broom up on its hook, and took one last, long look at his rock garden. And then he stepped away to sit on the porch and waited for the fire to come.

 

Meanwhile, in another cavern, TurTaal ducked beneath a hammer flung from the shadows meant to shatter their pelvis. They hadn't had much warning, but they would take what they could get. And so TurTaal ran, dodging thrown rocks from far-flung corners, taking one into the left shoulder blade before finally stumbing into a room with several other kandra playing cards, collapsing to the floor below.

 

Kasimir was killed! They were a member of the Second Generation with a Blessing of Stability! They also wrote most of this writeup, so go upvote them!

Turtle was attacked, but survived!

 

The turn will end at 8:00 PM PDT (or 10:00 PM CDT) on Wednesday, September 28th.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice - MaTriim
2. @The Unknown Novel - NoVeel
3. @The Wandering Wizard - WiiZaad
4. @_Stick_ - Stiiik
5. Shqueeves - WalDo - Second Generation, Blessing of Awareness
6. Araris Valerian - ArVaal - Second Generation, Blessing of Presence
7. xinoehp512 - NottIt - Third Generation, Blessing of Potency
8. Conquestor - ConQuis - Second Generation, Blessing of Stability
9. @Shining Silhouette - Taazzel
10. SymphonianBookworm - Zanaria / @Archer - AarChur
11. Kasimir - KeSaam - Second Generation, Blessing of Stability
12. @Turtle - TurTaal
13. JNV - JenVee - Third Generation, Blessing of Awareness
14. Illwei - IllWei - Second Generation, Blessing of Presence

I hope that's all?

[Turtle they/them]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Kasimir was killed! They were a member of the Second Generation with a Blessing of Stability! They also wrote most of this writeup, so go upvote them!

Turtle was attacked, but survived!

Wait

what

who protected me

and why?

ik it wasn’t me I used my blessing on mat d1 bc he looked like the nk target and I had no idea how involved I was gonna be able to be in the game.

also just realized there was vote manip last day so that’s fun

I need to actually sleep now lmao bye

[Mat he/him]

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Kas.

Sorry for paranoiding you but I suppose this wouldn’t have been a normal game without it  Totally didn’t copy paste that first line

If you protected turtle please claim it because I currently don’t really believe that they didn’t self protect… unless e!TUN knew his only chance was if turtle was still alive today, but that’d be a weird play with the current ratio since he’d still be second and really needs every kill he can get.

I’m not sure if I’ll reconsider on ending on turtle since like rereading D1 isn’t going to change anything for me lol. They were inactive and I’m sure as heck not killing Stick right now.

[Archer he/him]

Scenario 1. E!Turtle is lying about having burned their protection and so they decided to self protect. 

Scenario 2. There's only one Elim, Turtle, but they were protected by a villager. The villager should claim, because you want to help the team understand what's going on. 

Scenario 3. Village Turtle was protected by a villager. Again, please claim. 

Scenario 4. Village Turtle was protected by an elim seeking to mislead us. That's a tactically dubious move because it saves a villager, wastes their ability to protect themselves, and a WGG would give more village cred. 

Scenario 5. Two elims, neither being Turtle. Again, tactically dubious, so I'll dismiss the idea. 

Scenario 6. E!Turtle and one other Elim. One of them protected Turtle. Valid move on their part, but this gives us an Elim distro of kill and protect and rolescan and a fourth option, which is excessive, considering 10:4 goes 8:4, 5:4 and at that point the village isn't going to be united enough to win in practice, despite the majority. Only way I see this being in play is if we have proof Turtle used their protection and get no villager claims to have made a block. 

Therefore, the only reasonable scenario was that e!Turtle protected themselves. (If you want to be extra paranoid, we could go through the options for who might have been an Elim teammate with a spare protection ability, based on proven ability uses so far and rolescans. Someone is welcome to compile a list of what proof we have of who has what role, if they're so inclined and want to prepare for a non protection role Turtle flip, or a surprise deployment of Scenario 4)

Turtle

Edit: I made the mistake of assuming that everyone was working with full information and acting efficiently. There's a world where v!TUN got confused and protected v!Turtle. But if TUN says they didn't protect them, one of those two must be evil. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Archer

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

28 minutes ago, Archer said:

Edit: I made the mistake of assuming that everyone was working with full information and acting efficiently. There's a world where v!TUN got confused and protected v!Turtle. But if TUN

I did not protect Turtle, since I thought they were decently likely elim. I protected Stick since Kas and Illwei both thought they were village and no-one really refuted that. I didn't protect Kas because I felt that either the elims would recognize that there was some lynch potential due to Kas' death wish, or that if the elims didn't recognize that they'd seem the prime protect target.

[Stick. she/her]

Turtle

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Turtle

 

 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Turtle

[Mat he/him]

I refuse to vote turtle in this post

Edited September 27, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Good for you, Turtle looks the worst in my books followed by TUN and Archer tied.

Matrim

Shining, Stick 

TUN, Archer

Turtle

[Archer he/him]

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I refuse to vote turtle in this post

That's okay, I'll double vote them to make up for your non participation. Specifically, I'm hedging for the possibility of a non protection role Turtle flip, which implicates whoever has that role. As I will demonstrate, I'm actually a vote manip.

[Stick. she/her]

Was frustrated at the lack of flip so voted without giving it a thought but:

Now that I’ve had some time to chew on it - Why the heck did the elims kill Kas?? It makes zero strategic sense since there was a good likelihood of him offering himself up to get exe’d again - that along with the general paranoia surrounding him since illwei’s flip would’ve made for an effortless misexe. It’s not like Kas had reads any different from the general PoE that everyone seems to share at the moment (he was pushing for turtle, same as everyone else) - so why kill him?

It’s simple - Kas had claimed vote manip last day turn. This indicates to me the elim(s) is worried about vote imbalance causing damage to their gameplan. If Turtle is our last elim, I don’t see how removing a single-shot vote manip improves their chances of survival against <six> villagers, especially when they’re our primary target in any case. Except now, Archer claims vote manip. AND, he’s hinting at the possibility of two remaining elims.

And I think he might be right. Pragmatically, I simply do not see Ash creating a 3-player elim team of <xino, jnv, turtle> and thinking it’s fair to have them play against players with significantly more experience (Kas, illwei, Araris, Mat, me). It has to be four people. Similarly, swap Turtle with Symph and it still doesnt make sense for only three elims to exist.

For a second, if we consider the possibility of e!Archer and another teammate, then we are standing at lylo. Let’s run the numbers:

Quote

 

D4: exe v!Turtle (then it’s 2E v 4V)

N4: NK a villager (then it’s 2E v 3V)

D5: Archer uses vote manip to steal a villager’s vote, villager dies, parity reached, elims win

 

So in this case Ash will probably call the game after this turn.

I will note that Archer revealing the vote manip after Shining has used their kill is further indicative of e!Archer. Now, since everyone apart from me has graciously role-claimed, they don’t have to fear getting attacked during N4. The chances of there being more coinshots is negligible in any case. (Not that it matters now but I had Awareness which I used on Kas N2.) The fact that they are not worried about me possibly having vote manip indicates to me that JNV probably scanned me.

I very seriously doubt that Archer’s going to use his vote manip this turn. Why’d he claim? 1)People are generally more inclined to trust you after you role-claim unprompted, so free village cred and 2)Given how unanimous we are to this exe, he can later argue that there was no need to use it. 

Archer’s been giving off MR56 and LG87 vibes plain and simple. (For those unaware, in MR56 he false-claimed right off the bat during D1 when there was quite literally no need to, and later lied about an incriminating role-scan as a reaction test - all to gain village cred. In LG87, Steel’s faction game, again it was lie after lie @Matrim's Dice would remember). Here, the challenge to Wiz, unnecessary reaction tests, and lies are just not sitting right with me and it all points to e!Archer. Also, as far as I recall, Archer is usually properly-versed with the rules before going into a game so that major rule misunderstanding from last turn is uncharacteristic for him too and I could see it being intentional, perhaps aiming for a derp-clear.

My theory is that we’re looking at e!Archer+e!TUN. By blocking the turtle kill, they’ve given TUN the buffer they need. If the turtle kill was successful and they flipped village, everyone had more or less agreed to exe TUN next. Even if they then use Archer’s vote manip to cause a tie D4 to save TUN, they don’t have the numbers on D5 as it would be 2-3. Additionally, Archer’s coinshot bluff also makes sense here because by claiming coinshot they created the environment for any real coinshots to come forward and claim because obviously it raised worrying distro questions that <had> to be resolved. If no one had come forward to claim, they could have simply said what they said anyway - that it was a reaction test for Turtle. It was a win-win either way. 

Can I see a <xino, JNV, symph, TUN> team with a coinshot, scanner, protect, and vote manip playing against this game’s village roster? Absolutely. 

Would appreciate everyone’s thoughts on this.

I could be wrong, but I think it’s worth giving a shot considering this could be lylo if I’m right. If I’m wrong, at least we don’t wake up to the Aftermath thread.

Turtle Archer

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Stick, I like your thoughts, and they make sense, but two things, why don't you think a Archer/Turtle might be present, and don't you think Xino (who is mostly low activity and not really new)/JNV (who is more active but also new)/Symph (new, and apparently less active)/Me (who varies but is generally low active) is a really low activity team?

Edit: Also, without a claim for protecting them, I know Turtle is evil, don't I? Since nobody claimed it, it has to be a lie or Turtle. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[Mat he/him]

Stick, I don’t think anyone except Illwei was thinking about e!Kas anymore and Turtle would have witnessed firsthand lylo Kas during the QF (he’d want me to point out Devo held him together and yes yes but he still had to end up on us in the end) but the amount of words he was putting out is enough reason to kill him.

And if we’re at lylo right now then I don’t even know >>

Will reread this morning and vote but I bet it’ll be turtle, that feels like too much tinfoil for me  

[Archer he/him]

If you believe I'm a vote manip with a teammate, why not let v!Turtle die? The votes would fall along 2e+1:4v-1, which is a tie, assuming full participation. The exe is then wasted, leading to 2e:3v to work against. 

Protecting v!Turtle positions them to be exed, which brings us to 2e:3v, then 2e:2v. That's actually a better outcome, you're right. 

Stick does have a point that solo!Turtle has lost anyway so hedging isn't an awful idea. I question their assessment of JNV and Xino's experience, since they've both played enough games that I think Ashbriger would trust their competence. But if the elims protected Turtle, and e!I randomly decided to admit to being a vote manip in the round I planned to secretly use it to win, it'd be bad. But to get there, you need to name the e!protection role. It has to be TUN or Stick. Or me lying, and it's my partner with the vote manip.... 

On 27/09/2022 at 0:01 AM, Turtle said:

 

ik it wasn’t me I used my blessing on mat d1 bc he looked like the nk target and I had no idea how involved I was gonna be able to be in the game.

 

But may I direct your attention to this obvious lie? Too much explanation and it is immediately defensive when they're supposed to be confused and surprised to be alive. 

[Stick. she/her]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Stick, I like your thoughts, and they make sense, but two things, why don't you think a Archer/Turtle might be present, and don't you think Xino (who is mostly low activity and not really new)/JNV (who is more active but also new)/Symph (new, and apparently less active)/Me (who varies but is generally low active) is a really low activity team?

I think Archer/Turtle can’t be e/e because they seem to have no problem exeing them today. With e!turtle dead, e!Archer simply does not have the numbers to outnumber the village in the next exe. And yeah, I think that team is relatively balanced because first, it’s got 4 players rather than 3, which would’ve been the expected team size. And second, the roles seem powerful enough to counter the lack of loud players in the team. 

29 minutes ago, Archer said:

But may I direct your attention to this obvious lie? Too much explanation and it is immediately defensive when they're supposed to be confused and surprised to be alive. 

 

59 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Will reread this morning and vote but I bet it’ll be turtle, that feels like too much tinfoil for me  

Look I don’t trust Turtle at all and 100% think we should be exeing them, just maybe not this cycle because of the looming threat of the vote manip ending the game. Worst case scenario Archer flips green. Then what? We can just exe turtle next cycle and even if there is one more elim with turtle, we won’t immediately lose as they don’t have vote manip to tip the scales 

 

edit:

Quote

I question their assessment of JNV and Xino's experience, since they've both played enough games that I think Ashbriger would trust their competence.

Yes they’ve got experience but in terms of thread control/presence, they tend to be on more on the lower-active side

Edited September 28, 2022 by _Stick_

[Mat he/him]

47 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

because of the looming threat of the vote manip ending the game.

Worst case ratio wise is 5-2 and a single vote manip brings that to 4-3. A four person team is already more than normal (28%) and adding a Coinshot and two riots is more than excessive. So I don’t really think this is a looming threat /shrug 

If you’re right and we lose then brownie points for you I suppose  But I don’t see it.

[Stick. she/her]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Worst case ratio wise is 5-2 and a single vote manip brings that to 4-3. A four person team is already more than normal (28%) and adding a Coinshot and two riots is more than excessive. So I don’t really think this is a looming threat /shrug 

If you’re right and we lose then brownie points for you I suppose  But I don’t see it.

If they have vote manip they aren’t gonna use it this turn obviously since there’s no need to. Like I said:

9 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

D4: exe v!Turtle (then it’s 2E v 4V)

N4: NK a villager (then it’s 2E v 3V)

D5: Archer uses vote manip to steal a villager’s vote, villager dies, parity reached, elims win

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

If they have vote manip they aren’t gonna use it this turn obviously since there’s no need to. Like I said:

So… does your proposed team not have turtle in it, I guess? How did they survive the attack, then? v!them wouldn’t lie about it and no one else claimed it. 

[Archer he/him]

42 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Yes they’ve got experience but in terms of thread control/presence, they tend to be on more on the lower-active side

I just don't think Ashbringer is up to date enough on the current meta to make a team that's perfectly balanced by player ability. 

So we're assuming Archer-Turtle are not e-e. We're also going to assume that TUN, myself, and Stick have unknown abilities, because they haven't been proven. 

If I'm a solo elim with the best power (killing), I can exe Turtle, NK Wiz and Mat, then it's me vs Stick, TUN, and Sil. Say I dupe you into killing TUN, the NK takes out Stick, and it's 1:1 so e!I win, barring villager vote manip. 

If e!me only has vote manipulation, I go to me+1 vs Stick, TUN, and Sil-1, which is 2v2, giving me the chance to NK someone for free, leading to me vs Stick and TUN, which is an elim loss.

You can essentially replace e!TUN with me for those scenarios, but the question becomes, who protected v!Turtle if we have those powers? It doesn't work out, so we must have burned our protection ability, which means we don't have the kill we need to win from only two mixes. We'd need three. 

But what if we're teammates! I'll make this useful to myself by assuming TUN and Turtle are evil together. e!Turtle protected themselves, then e!TUN has a kill up their sleeve. If we exe me, then they NK Mat and Wiz, it becomes Sil and Stick vs TUN and Turtle for the elim win. If TUN only has vote manip, it goes exe Archer, NK Mat, then Wiz, Sil, Stick-1 lose to TUN and Turtle+1, resulting in a mix, then NK for an elim win. 

But perhaps it's TUN and I who are evil buddies. Mix Turtle, NK Mat. If I have vote manip, it goes Sil, Stick, Wiz-1 to TUN, me+1, for a mix, then NK for the elim win. 

So there's a chance that two elims win together off of a misplay this round. But if you assume Turtle and I aren't teammates, I need a buddy. That person has to be TUN, unless you want to bring Mat or Stick into the fold by disregarding their previous thread activity. Turtle and TUN are also potential teammates. So technically, exing TUN today covers ourselves for the possibility of a four person elim team, because they're the common denominator. Exing me does not, because it allows the Turtle-TUN team to walk free. And as a reminder, solo!e!me can't win because I have to have had and used a protection ability on Turtle. 

My vote's staying on Turtle because I think it's unlikely that it's anything but just e!Turtle, but you're welcome to pile on TUN if you're risk adverse. 

TUN, you know that you're not evil, so you should vote Turtle. I know I'm not evil, so I'm double voting Turtle, knowing the only possibilities are Turtle and TUN, or a doomed-anyway solo elim who can be exed later if I'm wrong. That gives us a vote of 3 to 4, if everyone else votes for TUN. So exing TUN is doable! You just need to do more convincing, Stick. 

[Stick. she/her]

Mat I feel like you did not read my post

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Mat I feel like you did not read my post

Skimmed it right after I woke up, sorry, reread it

I understand now

Will think about it during my reread. I agree that Archer/TUN as a team acts like this but I’m still not sure how much I buy a 4 person team with a Coinshot and a Kas kill makes sense to me no matter what he claimed

Edited September 28, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Mat he/him]

In your scenario, allowing Shining to shoot v!turtle lets the ratio today be 4-2, and at that point even if we all pile on TUN, Archer can force the tie and still win, right? So I don't see the point in TUN blocking Shining's kill, it's just unnecessary.

@_Stick_ I think that's the biggest thing for me about your theory but I also might just be wrong :P.