Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!

[Luckspren]

Welcome to the party, Vorros!

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

Illwei, you’re missing someone on your list. And I’m assuming conditional is equivalent to null?

Also why are you calling out Luck for being confident on a town!Mat read when you yourself have him down as village and are going so far as to be voting Luck for wanting to elim your two town reads. Clearly Luck doesn’t want to kill Mat if he thinks he’s town, so I really don’t like that you are pushing him for incorrect reasons atp. 

Illwei Votes are just bold red text, no?

Illwei is missing Wandering Wizard. I don't think conditional is equivalent to null, because she put Xino in conditional after talking about how she's not elim if I am, and her null group appears to be <Conq, Devo, Sart, you>. 

I'm a she .

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

I think this probably makes sense. 7-3 split does seem pretty steep, but it is rope madness and if we can find each other as town then we should be able to link up and create an untouchable town core. But since there are limited roles that can’t channel (like the warders I assume) maybe we are looking at 2. 

What’s the difference between a village aes Sedai and an elim aes Sedai? Oh is that the term for the baddies?

Im sorry I screwed up the formatting. Are the tags just like basic bbcode? Or are they different?

8-3 split. Still steep, but it's probably safer to assume 3. 

Eliminators are the baddies. Aes Sedai are the ones who can channel, Warders aren't Aes Sedai, so I don't think they can channel. 

[Vorros]

56 minutes ago, Luckspren said:

Welcome to the party, Vorros!

Illwei is missing Wandering Wizard. I don't think conditional is equivalent to null, because she put Xino in conditional after talking about how she's not elim if I am, and her null group appears to be <Conq, Devo, Sart, you>. 

I'm a she .

8-3 split. Still steep, but it's probably safer to assume 3. 

Eliminators are the baddies. Aes Sedai are the ones who can channel, Warders aren't Aes Sedai, so I don't think they can channel. 

Mech has never been my strong suit (as evident of my bad math), so I’m fine delegating it to others.

Thanks for your pronoun. 
 

now that I think about it conditional makes no sense as null at all. I can see the xino condition making sense from their POV. I think xino is more likely to be an elim rather than Luck is, but I do agree that that initial explanation of weaves is likely to be unaligned. Luck would have just explained it in the elim doc (which is essentially the wolf chat I assume). What about Shining tho? What makes them more conditional than the rest of the pool of players? Especially since their only contribution has been a question about linking (which should apply to most people at least), so I don’t know why you picked out Shining to potentially develop a elim read on versus the rest of us. 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Vorros

[Araris Valerian]

10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?

Wizard I'm going to park my vote on Conquestor @Conquestor at least until I get a response from this. If your rule analysis gives you conclusions that you are disregarding, then it's performative and hence elimmy.

[Luckspren]

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

Conditionals
Xino, Shining

I agree about Xino (kind of maybe sort of, I can at least see it), but there's this:

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

What about Shining? What makes them more conditional than the rest of the pool of players? Especially since their only contribution has been a question about linking (which should apply to most people at least), so I don’t know why you picked out Shining to potentially develop a elim read on versus the rest of us.

Shining as conditional rather than null makes no sense to me either, @Illwei. Care to explain?

 

Vote tally:

Conquestor (3): Sart, Xino, Araris

Illwei (2): Luckspren, Vorros

Luckspren (1): Illwei

[Vorros]

22 hours ago, Illwei said:

I don't think there's that much to talk about distro wise. Everyone seems fine calling it three elims and I think that's fine based on TUNs previous games and a history of larger elim teams over smaller ones

That also means that at least one person who has checked in is an Elim

 

Any thoughts on this, guys?

--

Vil: Araris, Xino

Araris/luck never e/e

Mat feels like he has tmi on luck being v.

Conquests slight e lean for adding on that I haven't posted anything since then, as someone who hasn't posted. This is the only situation where I'm going to say it was a point in your favor rn that you walked that back,  but we'll see. 

Maybe Your current list makes no sense compared to this. Your progression from one to the other is filled with so many contradictions. 

21 hours ago, Illwei said:

I wouldn't call Araris' vote opportunistic, and I actually think it was villagery of him to even vote Wizard when I hadn't stated my reasoning. 

EDIT: implying that since there was no reasoning and he wasn't stating his own, there's not much to be opportunistic about there, especially because it's so soon I'm the cycle. It's more likely for someone to jump on araris for a bad follow than jump on me for no reasoning, so it's a risky move to make as an elim.

EDIT: I think I'm moving Matrim to my village leans for now.

I have a problem with this but it's a silly problem.
When matrim is village he doesn't trust me really, so finding reasons to vote me are usually very there. Here though, his immediate take is a "I can understand why your thoughts are valid, but i disagree," which to me makes it sound like he knows I'm village. An immediate disagreement would normally translate to a elim lean on me.

Anyways I guess the summary is that Matrim seems like he has TMI on a few slots- Luck, me, Wizard at the very least. (if Mat is an Elim then Wizard can also be a teammate, even though I'm not sure where I'm leaning on Wizard right now.)

Sart @The Unknown Novel

Here your progression on Mat makes no sense. It boils down to “Mat acts is more suspicious of me when we are both village, but since he is acting different and is exhibiting signs of TMI, I’m going to put him in my village reads.” Like are you hoping that comments like these are gonna fly under the radar because of your current position as a top poster and having a generally positive reputation for voting conquestor (correct me if I’m wrong other people)? This looks like you are somehow trying to move a partner away from your initial scumreads into your town core. I’m gonna be looking at Mat suspiciously as a possible partner of Illwei now. I think that He’s been fine up til now so I’m not gonna actively push him yet, but I stand at Illwei/Mat +1 more for the solve. 

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

I'm getting tired, probably going to head to sleep soon. No one is here anyways, so. Doesn't matter.

While that is bad if you're both village, a 1:1 village:elim trade is always worth it from the village side.

I'm gonna repeat what people are sick of but also regardless of if you are a villager who is active in thread it doesn't always mean that village is more likely to have control over the thread, remember that you need to be actively seeking out to other villagers so you can work with them and hopefully get them to find you

so sure that Mat is village?

Which leads me to:
Luckspren

I'll start here, where- Well, it's hard with new players (you're new, right? because you don't sound it) because no one, including them ofc, knows how they play yet.

-1 point for saying we should kill two people who i believe to be village currently. Especially for the reasoning that they have given- Conq and I have not been arguing, nor had conq had more than 2 posts (does not meet criteria for "arguing enough" as that implies high thread presence).

There were interactions, specifically where Araris quoted you:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

the specific "in the game approval PM" which was obviously to clarify that he didn't learn this from the Elim doc, is directed at Luck. If he was an Elim with Luck I don't think he would approach her in this way

Anyways, that specifically is a bizzare kind of statement because it's defensive, and someone shouldn't be defensive about stated not e/e interactions unless they're 1) true, and 2) the Elim is nervous about narrowing down the partner possibilities when they die (whether this be a subconscious thought or not.)

Then the added shade and then walkback in the next sentence isn't good.

One thing in Luck's favor is their interactions with Xino:

  Reveal hidden contents

and

the first quote is something that I would normally called unpartnered, especially for a new player. it's needless, especially if no one else is there. It was 12 minutes after Xino asked the question. 

The second Quote however is something I'd call partnered if Luck is an Elim. Because it's a kind of joke I wouldn't see a new Elim being able to make with a villager.
I think this point is smaller though, and if Luck were to flip Elim I'd probably clear Xino, and only use this as a defense for her before she dies.

Village
Mat, Araris

Conditionals
Xino, Shining

Elim
Luck

Happy late birthday
Vorros

Conq, Devo, Sart, Vorros contains 1-2 wolves

And then here you vote the person who has apparently TMI’d half the player group village already, which just tops it all off. 

[---]

Oh i was missing wizard, probably because I kept putting him in town and then deleting it, same with conq because I don't fully believe that conq is town- something feels off- but wtv. I'm not currently feeling good on Xino though by himself, when i can usually find him when he's town, so yeah.

Conditionals are in the world that Luck is an Elim, they are village.

Also, my read on Mat and Luck's read on mat is different. Luck didn't have basically any interactions with Mat, and also has less experience with him. never did she out a read, and then she posts the "mat is just trying to solve" which, Luck, I don't even know how that is a response to saying it seems like Mat has TMI. Like, that's the point. That's not something that normally gets posted. It's a defence of Mat when i have already said I have him as village, but his interactions feel like he has TMI on people.

30 minutes ago, Vorros said:

Here your progression on Mat makes no sense. It boils down to “Mat acts is more suspicious of me when we are both village, but since he is acting different and is exhibiting signs of TMI, I’m going to put him in my village reads.” Like are you hoping that comments like these are gonna fly under the radar because of your current position as a top poster and having a generally positive reputation for voting conquestor (correct me if I’m wrong other people)? This looks like you are somehow trying to move a partner away from your initial scumreads into your town core. I’m gonna be looking at Mat suspiciously as a possible partner of Illwei now. I think that He’s been fine up til now so I’m not gonna actively push him yet, but I stand at Illwei/Mat +1 more for the solve. 

First of all, I never voted conquestor, and I never had a positive reputation, as you should be able to see.

Also everyone knows progression cases are useless. Villagers are more likely to have confusing progressions because they're not thinking about how people view them- Elims are.

EDIT:

I do think the biggest thing right now to look at though is Conq's dismissal of Araris for "having some reasoning" for his WIzard vote. So my final answer is that that's not a good look and a conq wagon isn't bad.

EDIT:

If Conq is an Elim, his teammates are most likely in [Devo, Vorros, Shining]

Xino wouldn't make much sense for a partner since I was in the lead when he voted Conq, making conq a viable wagon.

If Mat is an Elim then Sart is likely his partner.

EDIT:

Also @Conquestor being limited to two scans in a game of 11 is actually still really good, as long as the person uses them right away, and on the best people (either low posters like shining, newer players (sometimes) like Wizard or Luck, or counterwagons in the case that we vote out a villager. Assuming 8 v. 3 the fastest the game could be over is 3 cycles, more with extra KP.

Edited August 13, 2022 by Illwei
extra spaces at the bottom

[Vorros]

28 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Oh i was missing wizard, probably because I kept putting him in town and then deleting it, same with conq because I don't fully believe that conq is town- something feels off- but wtv. I'm not currently feeling good on Xino though by himself, when i can usually find him when he's town, so yeah.

Conditionals are in the world that Luck is an Elim, they are village.

Also, my read on Mat and Luck's read on mat is different. Luck didn't have basically any interactions with Mat, and also has less experience with him. never did she out a read, and then she posts the "mat is just trying to solve" which, Luck, I don't even know how that is a response to saying it seems like Mat has TMI. Like, that's the point. That's not something that normally gets posted. It's a defence of Mat when i have already said I have him as village, but his interactions feel like he has TMI on people.

First of all, I never voted conquestor, and I never had a positive reputation, as you should be able to see.

Also everyone knows progression cases are useless. Villagers are more likely to have confusing progressions because they're not thinking about how people view them- Elims are.

EDIT:

I do think the biggest thing right now to look at though is Conq's dismissal of Araris for "having some reasoning" for his WIzard vote. So my final answer is that that's not a good look and a conq wagon isn't bad.

I’m sorry I meant wizard not conq.
 

Progressions are supposed to make sense to the people they are explaining them to so that we know where you are at and how you got there. I care about how my progression looks so that others understand and listen to me. Being open is generally always better than being close handed about reads and such because without a progression I cant tell if you are actually changing your reads or if you are faking it. 
 

EDIT: Also I’m pretty sure your not positive reputation has come solely from me and Luck. 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Vorros

[Luckspren]

33 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Conditionals are in the world that Luck is an Elim, they are village.

Also everyone knows progression cases are useless. Villagers are more likely to have confusing progressions because they're not thinking about how people view them- Elims are.

If Conq is an Elim, his teammates are most likely in [Devo, Vorros, Shining]

If Mat is an Elim then Sart is likely his partner.

Because I explained things to them?

'Everyone knows progession cases are useless'- overstatement much? Dramatic shifts in opinion mean something and are useful information. (Ninja'd by Vorros)

Elaborate on the last two, please. Why those pairings? I'm not arguing (for once in my life), I'm just asking why you think that. 

5 minutes ago, Vorros said:

I’m sorry I meant wizard not conq.

Illwei didn't get any positive reputation for voting Wizard. She got a whole bunch of criticism. 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Luckspren

[---]

16 minutes ago, Luckspren said:

Elaborate on the last two, please. Why those pairings? I'm not arguing (for once in my life), I'm just asking why you think that. 

I don't believe that more than one of you guys [Vorros, Luck] is an elim based on how thread has been for a little bit, but if Conq is an Elim then one of you is likely to be an Elim as well due to me being the counterwagon.

I don't believe that Conq is pared with Sart right now, even though that is only because of Sart's vote on him, but also Conq's reaction to the vote. If it was supposed to be theater, then I think we'd see more interaction from Sart's side.

Xino is the one who pushed Conq up to be elligable to be a wagon, and Araris pushed him over. No one give the whole "Araris could be bussing" because regardless of that, Araris and Matrim are two of my village reads right now, and I feel very confident on Araris right now.

That leaves Vorros, Devo, Shining, and Wizard. And of those four, shining has posted once and you can't read that other then say maybe they aren't aligned with Luckspren but you also can't say that, and Wizard is basically the same in my opinion, just not really readable for me right now.

16 minutes ago, Luckspren said:

'Everyone knows progession cases are useless'- overstatement much? Dramatic shifts in opinion mean something and are useful information. (Ninja'd by Vorros)

Sure yeah, but my point is they don't make someone an Elim. I get I haven't played with you and shouldn't expect you to know my meta but even on general, drastic changes in reads or approaches only mean anything negative if they're married with agenda. Vorros' accusation is that my agenda is to lift a buddy (Mat) to a village read, but how would that benefit me if I was an Elim? No one cares about my reads currently nor would it matter since Matrim isn't in any sort of danger. if I'm about to die as an Elim then awkwardly navigating around a partner would definitely make them look worse than if i continued to scumread him or did nothing at all.

That's why Vorros' point about how that "looks bad for me" doesn't make sense and I actually don't look bad from that.

Say "it's an IKYK" all you want, but actually don't because in the end you can say that to whatever you want as a form of dismissing it (in terms of arguments). It's not, it's common sense, especially because I am not a new player and I know what I'm doing.

Edited August 13, 2022 by Illwei

[Conquestor]

Okay, @Araris ValerianI don't completely understand your fixation on me. I Voted on Illwei and then you became super defensive! Are you trying to protect a teammate? Also, I had read through the thread really quickly and your post was bigger than Illwei's so I thought there was more to it, but I was wrong. Also, most of my posts have been on the phone so it's harder for me to bounce around the thread. Also, I think that it is very important for us to have a deep understanding of the roles and rules, since that will help us determine the elims.

No, I don't necessarily think that trying to take thread control makes someone Elim or village right now. Before I posted my role analysis, I didn't realize all of that. I'm a post as I realize kind of person. What I am saying is that thread control is now going to be of bigger import but voting a little less so than other games (because of vote manip). Although I am a big advocator of voting, so I don't think it should be avoided. 

I am so confused by your vote on me post. What info did I share that I'm disregarding? It was role stuff and so that would relate to the actions I take with my role, so how would you know that I'm disregarding it? 

@IllweiHuh? Like I said above, I was using a phone and trying to read the thread quickly on my break, however, you still not explaining your vote on Wizard is saying something despite the numerous amount of attempts to get you to explain. That says more to me than a dismissal of a vote, also it wasn't a dismissal. I was voting on the person I thought was more suspicious, that doesn't mean that I didn't think Araris's vote was good. Also, what. Is Araris on my team? Even if I did dismiss his vote, what does that actually mean right now?

If you fully read my role thoughts posts, then you would've seen that I thought it was powerful, I was just saying that it would also have to be carefully used. You don't want to scan someone that is going to die at the same time you scan them. 

Also, I'm confused about all the pressure on me. Could someone please explain it in more simplified terms? Also, what's up with @Sart? They get voted on, immediately post a tiny bit of fluff, vote on me, and nothing happens? Also, I tend to recall that taking off a vote relatively quickly for not much reasoning tends to get you pointed at pretty quickly. Why'd you take your vote off of Sart and put it onto Luckspren Illwei? 

[---]

Just now, Conquestor said:

Why'd you take your vote off of Sart and put it onto Luckspren Illwei? 

The timing of the post by him, I basically posted at the same time iirc and my problem was that I kept seeing him lurking and not saying anything.

[Conquestor]

Just now, Illwei said:

The timing of the post by him, I basically posted at the same time iirc and my problem was that I kept seeing him lurking and not saying anything.

Okay? I mean I guess that's fair, but isn't that an elimy thing to do? To lurk I mean. Maybe it's not anymore, but that's what I remember it meaning. 

Also, what makes Araris vil in your opinion? From my standpoint, he voted with you, and then started pressuring me weirdly because I did some vaguely shady stuff. Also, Xino's own vote on my pretty much mirrors Araris own reasons but what for peats sake is up with my roles analysis??? 

@Matrim's Diceand @Luckspren. Could either of you please tell me what is up with my apparently Elim posts? I can't get anything straight out of other people and I feel like you two would put it down plainly. Thanks in advance! 

[---]

25 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Also, what makes Araris vil in your opinion?

These

On 8/12/2022 at 0:58 PM, Araris Valerian said:

Is there a reason you singled out Illwei’s vote on Wizard over mine?

13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think it’s a bit of a distraction to talk about the roles a whole lot now, given that we have a 48 hour night cycle to strategize all we want. Since people have finite time and willingness to post, we should focus on voting now and leave the other stuff for when there isn’t as much else to say.

Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?

And i just generally think his interactions with Conq are villagery. He starts being wary of him when Conq doesn't sus him at all and says he has reasons for voting wizard when he said he was voting for the same reason as me. then after Conq's bigger post he starts looking at conq even more. He's started confbiasing a little bit in a way and it's villagery.

@Matrim's Dice waiting for you to say something..............

Edited August 13, 2022 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

No, I don't necessarily think that trying to take thread control makes someone Elim or village right now. Before I posted my role analysis, I didn't realize all of that. I'm a post as I realize kind of person. What I am saying is that thread control is now going to be of bigger import but voting a little less so than other games (because of vote manip). Although I am a big advocator of voting, so I don't think it should be avoided. 

So you think thread control is relatively important this game (compared to other games). In my view, thread control is only important insofar as it determines who gets voted out each cycle. But you also say that vote manip makes voting relatively less important. I disagree, but regardless of that you are being inconsistent. Basically, this is a summary of what I understand you to be saying:

1. The elim kill is less likely to succeed than normal
2. The elims will value thread control more than normal
3. (implied) Thread control lets the elims kill (via voting) more people to make up for (1)
4. Vote manip makes voting (and hence thread control) relatively less important
5. Players vying for thread control are not more or less likely to be elims
6. (implied) The elims don’t care about (2)

So what do you actually think? Do the rules overemphasize the importance of thread control/votes for the elims, or not? If so, why do you think players actually going for thread control is NAI? And if not, why bring that stuff up in the first place?

You say that understanding the rules is important to finding elims, but you are backpedaling when I point out what your interpretations imply about the current game state. And that’s what I find suspicious.

And lastly, why does vote manip make voting less important? If there are 2 votes placed, and a single vote manip action used, that action controls 50% of the vote. But if 10 votes are placed, and a single vote manip action is used, the action controls only 10% of the vote. So by the numbers, for any amount of vote manip, votes placed in thread become relatively more important, not less.

Edit: It’s possible that I’ve subscribed a bit to the Assuredness Movement of Rhetorical Theory in this post, so take any overconfidence/aggression with that in mind

Edited August 13, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Luckspren]

Summary of the case against Conquestor

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

@Matrim's Diceand @Luckspren. Could either of you please tell me what is up with my apparently Elim posts? I can't get anything straight out of other people and I feel like you two would put it down plainly. Thanks in advance! 

I'll do my best, @Conquestor.

Here's the conversation, patched together as much as possible (spoilered for length). 

Spoiler

 

Conq: I agree that your vote on Wizard does need some answers, Illwei. You also haven't contributed anything else, although that may just be because you're busy. 

Araris: Is there a reason you singled out Illwei’s vote on Wizard over mine?

Ill: Conquests slight e lean for adding on that I haven't posted anything since then, as someone who hasn't posted. This is the only situation where I'm going to say it was a point in your favor rn that you walked that back,  but we'll see. 

Sart: Conquestor. Your post just felt like a regurgitation of what had already been discussed in thread, in an attempt to blend in.

Ill: Despite my vote on Sart, I am okay with his vote on conq, even though i don't quite think the reasoning is there (red flag) I have my own problems with conq's content (or lack of) so it's fine for now.

Conquestor, in between my first two posts was when i was sleeping. could definitely use that argument about you not saying much back on you, with your one post, but I'm not because it hasn't even been 24 hours.

Conq: Wow, I don't know why my first votes seem to draw so much attention to me, like seriously, this is almost as bad as my last game. 

Araris Valerian I Voted on Illwei instead of you because his first vote had almost no explanation to it, while yours at least had some. 

Illwei I am at work and communicating on my breaks. Hence why my posts are also shorter than normal. I'm grateful for all the explanations about why you may not have been as communicative. I would like to hear from you about why you voted on Wizard in the first place. It just seems like you are trying to avoid an explanation. 

Sart  Wow, voting on someone who some people are slightly eliming about immediately after getting voted on. This seems like an attempt to distract from yourself. Also, maybe some of what I said was regurgitation, but I haven't had the time to really put a post out there, give me about 2 hours when I'm off work and I'll post a me post. 

Ill: Not been as communicative?

I had one explanation, which was needless filler to try and get you to say anything.  My other posts are not explanations, but me playing the game.

I'm annoyed over your approach to me, I suppose because you don't feel like you're trying to solve me. You also don't feel like you're trying to antagonize me either, though. 

Araris: I literally said I was voting on Wizard because I agree with Illwei. Hence, my vote had the exact same level of explanation as hers did.

Araris: Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?

Ill: Conq, Devo, Sart, Vorros contains 1-2 wolves

Xino: Conquestor. Something about their rules analysis posts feels off to me, though I can't quite put my finger on it.

Araris: (quotes self) 'Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?' Wizard I'm going to park my vote on Conquestor  at least until I get a response from this. If your rule analysis gives you conclusions that you are disregarding, then it's performative and hence elimmy.

Ill: I do think the biggest thing right now to look at though is Conq's dismissal of Araris for "having some reasoning" for his Wizard vote. So my final answer is that that's not a good look and a conq wagon isn't bad.

TL;DR You're being voted on by Sart, Araris, and Xino. Here are their vote posts, and what I think they meant. 

Sart: "Your post just felt like a regurgitation of what had already been discussed in thread, in an attempt to blend in."

So, he thinks you're trying to hide.

Araris: (quotes self) "'Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?' I'm going to park my vote on Conquestor at least until I get a response from this. If your rule analysis gives you conclusions that you are disregarding, then it's performative and hence elimmy."

So, he thinks your analysis should be leading you to suspect people, and it isn't; something's off. 

Xino: "Something about his rules analysis posts feels off to me, though I can't quite put my finger on it."

...that's it, all the reasoning given. Gut. 

 

You're also being suspected by Illwei because 1) you said she wasn't contributing, bringing you up to a total of one post yourself, and 2) you suspected Araris but not Illwei for voting Wizard, when they gave the same lack of explanation for their votes. Those posts are highlighted in the spoiler box conversation, for reference. 

I think you already addressed everything here except why Illwei's one post with a vote in it was less of a contribution than your one post with no vote in it. 

 

TL;DR What case against Conq? I don't see anything convincing. 

[Conquestor]

53 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

So you think thread control is relatively important this game (compared to other games). In my view, thread control is only important insofar as it determines who gets voted out each cycle. But you also say that vote manip makes voting relatively less important. I disagree, but regardless of that you are being inconsistent. Basically, this is a summary of what I understand you to be saying:

1. The elim kill is less likely to succeed than normal
2. The elims will value thread control more than normal
3. (implied) Thread control lets the elims kill (via voting) more people to make up for (1)
4. Vote manip makes voting (and hence thread control) relatively less important
5. Players vying for thread control are not more or less likely to be elims
6. (implied) The elims don’t care about (2)

So what do you actually think? Do the rules overemphasize the importance of thread control/votes for the elims, or not? If so, why do you think players actually going for thread control is NAI? And if not, why bring that stuff up in the first place?

You say that understanding the rules is important to finding elims, but you are backpedaling when I point out what your interpretations imply about the current game state. And that’s what I find suspicious.

And lastly, why does vote manip make voting less important? If there are 2 votes placed, and a single vote manip action used, that action controls 50% of the vote. But if 10 votes are placed, and a single vote manip action is used, the action controls only 10% of the vote. So by the numbers, for any amount of vote manip, votes placed in thread become relatively more important, not less.

Edit: It’s possible that I’ve subscribed a bit to the Assuredness Movement of Rhetorical Theory in this post, so take any overconfidence/aggression with that in mind

You know what? Fair enough, I guess I wasn't making myself very clear. I would state it more like this:

1. The elim kill is less likely to succeed than normal

2. The elims will value thread control more than normal

3. Thread control lets the elims kill (via voting) more people to make up for (1)

4. Vote manip makes voting (and hence thread control) relatively less important

5. Players vying for thread control are not more or less likely to be elims (because hopefully villagers will be trying to get thread control too!) 

It feels like your number six is coming out of left field. The elims are going to be able to coordinate and use their actions in coordination with each other, meanwhile the village is going to be mostly shooting in the dark. This makes it easier for the Elims to mess with the vote and more random and thus harder for the village.

Also, in my roles analysis post you might recall that I said it made the result more random and thus less likely, but that voting is still important and that people should do it. After all, like you stated, the more votes the less likely vote manip will work. The fewer the amount of votes, the more powerful it is. 

P. S. I really like that! "Assured Ness Movement of Rhetorical Thinking" 

[Luckspren]

@The Unknown Novel, when does the cycle end? The write-up says today, but not a time. 

 

6 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

It feels like your number six is coming out of left field.

Nah, I can see how 5 implies 6, but your explanation of 5 is reasonable.

 

Assured{deleted space}ness Movement of Rhetorical Thinking Theory. Fancy name for being errorgant on purpose. 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Luckspren

[Vorros]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

I don't believe that more than one of you guys [Vorros, Luck] is an elim based on how thread has been for a little bit, but if Conq is an Elim then one of you is likely to be an Elim as well due to me being the counterwagon.

I don't believe that Conq is pared with Sart right now, even though that is only because of Sart's vote on him, but also Conq's reaction to the vote. If it was supposed to be theater, then I think we'd see more interaction from Sart's side.

Xino is the one who pushed Conq up to be elligable to be a wagon, and Araris pushed him over. No one give the whole "Araris could be bussing" because regardless of that, Araris and Matrim are two of my village reads right now, and I feel very confident on Araris right now.

That leaves Vorros, Devo, Shining, and Wizard. And of those four, shining has posted once and you can't read that other then say maybe they aren't aligned with Luckspren but you also can't say that, and Wizard is basically the same in my opinion, just not really readable for me right now.

Sure yeah, but my point is they don't make someone an Elim. I get I haven't played with you and shouldn't expect you to know my meta but even on general, drastic changes in reads or approaches only mean anything negative if they're married with agenda. Vorros' accusation is that my agenda is to lift a buddy (Mat) to a village read, but how would that benefit me if I was an Elim? No one cares about my reads currently nor would it matter since Matrim isn't in any sort of danger. if I'm about to die as an Elim then awkwardly navigating around a partner would definitely make them look worse than if i continued to scumread him or did nothing at all.

That's why Vorros' point about how that "looks bad for me" doesn't make sense and I actually don't look bad from that.

Say "it's an IKYK" all you want, but actually don't because in the end you can say that to whatever you want as a form of dismissing it (in terms of arguments). It's not, it's common sense, especially because I am not a new player and I know what I'm doing.

But the thing is here that people did care about your reads ever since you dropped that wizard vote. People were asking for your explanation since your first post, so I don’t know why you think your reads don’t matter.

Wrt Matrim, I explained it away as shifting a partner to a townread because the way you went about doing it made no sense. You said that Mat fit his scum meta then proceeded to town read him. That move was so sketchy it made me doubt Mat.

You are right that Mat was in no danger, but what better time to fix a false read on a partner than during a time when there is no controversy revolving around the slot yet. 

13 minutes ago, Luckspren said:

Summary of the case against Conquestor

I'll do my best, @Conquestor.

Here's the conversation, patched together as much as possible (spoilered for length). 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Conq: I agree that your vote on Wizard does need some answers, Illwei. You also haven't contributed anything else, although that may just be because you're busy. 

Araris: Is there a reason you singled out Illwei’s vote on Wizard over mine?

Ill: Conquests slight e lean for adding on that I haven't posted anything since then, as someone who hasn't posted. This is the only situation where I'm going to say it was a point in your favor rn that you walked that back,  but we'll see. 

Sart: Conquestor. Your post just felt like a regurgitation of what had already been discussed in thread, in an attempt to blend in.

Ill: Despite my vote on Sart, I am okay with his vote on conq, even though i don't quite think the reasoning is there (red flag) I have my own problems with conq's content (or lack of) so it's fine for now.

Conquestor, in between my first two posts was when i was sleeping. could definitely use that argument about you not saying much back on you, with your one post, but I'm not because it hasn't even been 24 hours.

Conq: Wow, I don't know why my first votes seem to draw so much attention to me, like seriously, this is almost as bad as my last game. 

Araris Valerian I Voted on Illwei instead of you because his first vote had almost no explanation to it, while yours at least had some. 

Illwei I am at work and communicating on my breaks. Hence why my posts are also shorter than normal. I'm grateful for all the explanations about why you may not have been as communicative. I would like to hear from you about why you voted on Wizard in the first place. It just seems like you are trying to avoid an explanation. 

Sart  Wow, voting on someone who some people are slightly eliming about immediately after getting voted on. This seems like an attempt to distract from yourself. Also, maybe some of what I said was regurgitation, but I haven't had the time to really put a post out there, give me about 2 hours when I'm off work and I'll post a me post. 

Ill: Not been as communicative?

I had one explanation, which was needless filler to try and get you to say anything.  My other posts are not explanations, but me playing the game.

I'm annoyed over your approach to me, I suppose because you don't feel like you're trying to solve me. You also don't feel like you're trying to antagonize me either, though. 

Araris: I literally said I was voting on Wizard because I agree with Illwei. Hence, my vote had the exact same level of explanation as hers did.

Araris: Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?

Ill: Conq, Devo, Sart, Vorros contains 1-2 wolves

Xino: Conquestor. Something about their rules analysis posts feels off to me, though I can't quite put my finger on it.

Araris: (quotes self) 'Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?' Wizard I'm going to park my vote on Conquestor  at least until I get a response from this. If your rule analysis gives you conclusions that you are disregarding, then it's performative and hence elimmy.

Ill: I do think the biggest thing right now to look at though is Conq's dismissal of Araris for "having some reasoning" for his Wizard vote. So my final answer is that that's not a good look and a conq wagon isn't bad.

TL;DR You're being voted on by Sart, Araris, and Xino. Here are their vote posts, and what I think they meant. 

Sart: "Your post just felt like a regurgitation of what had already been discussed in thread, in an attempt to blend in."

So, he thinks you're trying to hide.

Araris: (quotes self) "'Your point about thread control is relevant though. Do you think that players like Illwei, Mat, and myself are more suspicious because we’ve had relatively more influence on the thread, given that your analysis suggests the elims would be forced into that?' I'm going to park my vote on Conquestor at least until I get a response from this. If your rule analysis gives you conclusions that you are disregarding, then it's performative and hence elimmy."

So, he thinks your analysis should be leading you to suspect people, and it isn't; something's off. 

Xino: "Something about his rules analysis posts feels off to me, though I can't quite put my finger on it."

...that's it, all the reasoning given. Gut. 

 

You're also being suspected by Illwei because 1) you said she wasn't contributing, bringing you up to a total of one post yourself, and 2) you suspected Araris but not Illwei for voting Wizard, when they gave the same lack of explanation for their votes. Those posts are highlighted in the spoiler box conversation, for reference. 

I think you already addressed everything here except why Illwei's one post with a vote in it was less of a contribution than your one post with no vote in it. 

 

TL;DR What case against Conq? I don't see anything convincing. 

This tbh. I think his rules make sense and are backed by the way the rules and potential roles are set up. 

[---]

1 minute ago, Vorros said:

Wrt Matrim, I explained it away as shifting a partner to a townread because the way you went about doing it made no sense. You said that Mat fit his scum meta then proceeded to town read him. That move was so sketchy it made me doubt Mat.

I didn't say he fit his scum meta, I said that i found it odd that he wasn't jumping straight out with voting me- while he wasn't voting anyone and in fact has been basically agreeing with everyone and not really saying much. still he's been awfully quiet and whatnot.

The explaination obviously wasn't needed for the wizard vote as matrim pretty much summed it up. it was the post about guessing the team comp where he said the most realistic number, but then guessed two more as if 4/7 would ever make sense for distro and as if he didn't want people to think that he had TMI on what the distro was.

 

[Araris Valerian]

47 minutes ago, Luckspren said:

So, he thinks your analysis should be leading you to suspect people, and it isn't; something's off. 

That was what I explicitly said, but there is a little more going on here. I was initially trying to push Conquestor into making some firm reads on some of the more active players, and he refused. My push was subtle, but I think it’s relevant that he didn’t take a stance on anyone.

[Mat]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

@Matrim's Dice waiting for you to say something..............

Sorry, I've had a busy last ~24 hours. I've skimmed everything, condensing my thoughts. Don't really have time for more.

-I know I'm just proving Illwei right by saying this but I do think her Luckspren case isn't very good, particularly the line with the essence of '-1 point for having different reads than me'. I also agree with Vorros' points and generally liked his opening posts. I feel like Illwei should have had some reaction to accepting Conq's request and I feel like e!Luckspren would have just let me do that :P.

-Also just generally baffled by how many takes Illwei has about everyone with one fluff post and how they're not e/e or are e/e or whatever with like the other person they maybe talked to, that seems weird. Not really, elim weird though I guess cause like obviously every take has some form of reasoning behind it and like that'd be a lot of things to make up as an elim, idk. I guess it's just something I've never seen before.

-I don't really like the Conq train and how far it's taken off, I generally agree with Luckspren's assessment. However--

12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

My push was subtle, but I think it’s relevant that he didn’t take a stance on anyone

This I agree with. I also agree with the v!Araris read.

-Sart is interesting to me because 99% of the time Sart just reads as elim to me, flat out, and I find myself... not reading Sart as elim. I liked his single post even if I disagreed with it. Xino on the other hand, well, I think that 'their rules analysis was off but I don't know why' is like literally the easiest reasoning to claim, ever.

-With the second half of the above point in mind, xino and Illwei are potential teammates because in that world, xino would be voting Illwei to make a competing train. Potentially could throw Wizard into the mix to complete the team since xino included Wiz in his bad bucket yet still voted Conq (and also the fun dynamic for Illwei's opening vote, which I could totally see being e/e :P) but I feel like that's getting ahead of myself.

Araris Luck
Vorros Sart
Conq Wiz Devo Shining
Illwei
xino

is probably where I'm at but I don't want to kill Illwei today.

xinoehp512

[Araris Valerian]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

-Also just generally baffled by how many takes Illwei has about everyone with one fluff post and how they're not e/e or are e/e or whatever with like the other person they maybe talked to, that seems weird.

This was me for pretty much all of champs.

[Mat]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

This was me for pretty much all of champs.

I followed that game enough to have a reads list (and a pretty good one, at that ) and I don't really remember that... I think the difference is mainly the timeframe, you would have been doing it over multiple cycles with everyone posting dozens of times, and in this game we have 3 pages with only a few posts from most of the people.

[---]

Town: Araris, Luck, Mat

Yea

[Luckspren]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Town: Araris, Luck, Mat

Yea

If you think I'm town, please consider... taking your vote off me. ??