Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!

[---]

@Archer Why Bort? Just simply his striker vote?

[Mailliw73]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I guess might as well take a leap of faith

Illwei
Archer
Aman
Kasimir
JNV
Experience

Maillwi
Orlok
Bort
Ash
The Unknown Aon

I think there are all the Elims in the bottom 5 people. Objections? Who's next? Move the list around and tell me why

Interesting. Curious why Bort, TUA, and I are in the bottom five, but JNV and Experience are in the top. Any reasons for those 2 specifically being at the top? 

I'm still working through why I think what I do, and my time is more limited on this game than it's been in the past, but here's where I'd put it if I had to. 

Good: Maill, Bort, Orlok, Archer

Null: Aman, Kas, Illwei

Elim: JNV, Experience, Ash?

[---]

15 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Interesting. Curious why Bort, TUA, and I are in the bottom five, but JNV and Experience are in the top. Any reasons for those 2 specifically being at the top? 

I'm still working through why I think what I do, and my time is more limited on this game than it's been in the past, but here's where I'd put it if I had to. 

Good: Maill, Bort, Orlok, Archer

Null: Aman, Kas, Illwei

Elim: JNV, Experience, Ash?

We need maximum five people that we can all agree that there are 3 elims in. I don't really care if people add me in as long as I think that my three are there.

For JNV it's very light, but mostly just that they seem to be acting very similar to their previous games. In reality Xp/JNV are both in a middle category but for the sake of having 5 this is where I'm starting. Matrim read Exp as village on D1 and so did I so I'm sticking to it. Both Mat and Devo were pushing Ash, that's pretty much why he's in my bottom 5. there's nothing else interesting about their posts. The only person that seemed to be kinda reading Devo as village publicly was Kas and so the only way she dies because people think she can't be misexed is if Kas is an elim, imo.

Bort is there out of principle, as he only has a few posts and I don't really feel anything strongly about his slot. I don't believe he's an Elim with all my heart but i can't in good couscous drag him into my village reads. I notice you don't have TUA on your list.

You're down there because....well...I keep thinking you're steel at first and that keeps putting me off.

Why is Orlok in your top tier?

If I'm to go down more, I'd start my Village tier off with

Illwei
Archer
Experience

right now probably. Which means I need 3 more. Why should one of them be you?

The thing for me is that I don't feel comfortable enough with putting Aman or Kas solidly in my village tier without a huge leap of faith. These aren't Archer kills. They definitely could be Ash Kills.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Illwei

[Mailliw73]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

We need maximum five people that we can all agree that there are 3 elims in. I don't really care if people add me in as long as I think that my three are there.

For JNV it's very light, but mostly just that they seem to be acting very similar to their previous games. In reality Xp/JNV are both in a middle category but for the sake of having 5 this is where I'm starting. Matrim read Exp as village on D1 and so did I so I'm sticking to it. Both Mat and Devo were pushing Ash, that's pretty much why he's in my bottom 5. there's nothing else interesting about their posts. The only person that seemed to be kinda reading Devo as village publicly was Kas and so the only way she dies because people think she can't be misexed is if Kas is an elim, imo.

Bort is there out of principle, as he only has a few posts and I don't really feel anything strongly about his slot. I don't believe he's an Elim with all my heart but i can't in good couscous drag him into my village reads. I notice you don't have TUA on your list.

You're down there because....well...I keep thinking you're steel at first and that keeps putting me off.

Why is Orlok in your top tier?

If I'm to go down more, I'd start my Village tier off with

Illwei
Archer
Experience

right now probably. Which means I need 3 more. Why should one of them be you?

I've never had anyone tell me they think I'm Steel, so that's interesting haha.  And I thought I might be forgetting someone on my list, but I thought I went back and checked. Must've missed TUA. Honestly I know like nothing about them, so I'd put them at null. 

I didn't realize how much I rely on PMs (though I obviously should've noticed this) to get a vibe check on people. Only reading through the thread a few times a day doesn't give me a ton to go off of. Without dedicating a lot more time that I don't have, I'm only doing final vote analysis, which isn't giving me much to go off in just two days. 

Orlok would be putting in more effort as an elim, I feel like. 

Your reasoning for Ash gives me more reason to suspect him. I feel like we need an Archer or Ash flip, even if I kinda want to pursue my gut read on Exp. I think Archer and Ash are the two players alive who have the most frictional moments with other players and are the highest info flips we can get at this point. So I'd push for one of those exes today. 

[---]

Just now, Mailliw73 said:

I've never had anyone tell me they think I'm Steel, so that's interesting haha.  And I thought I might be forgetting someone on my list, but I thought I went back and checked. Must've missed TUA. Honestly I know like nothing about them, so I'd put them at null. 

You both had similar approaches (read: Practically identical) to me in Elim games I have had with you guys :P. must be that. :P.

I'm at a TUA/Ash flip right now.

TUA

[Mailliw73]

7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

You both had similar approaches (read: Practically identical) to me in Elim games I have had with you guys :P. must be that. :P.

I'm at a TUA/Ash flip right now.

TUA

Wait, like he wanted to extreme distance in the thread? lol

[---]

5 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Wait, like he wanted to extreme distance in the thread? lol

It was more the approach than the intent. The whole "Illwei is sus bc <insert specific reason only accuser can have>" to a "I agree" thing

The effort you put into a game is normally however much it requires to win. er, in a realistic world. In this threadstate why would orlok need to put in more effort when he both hasn't had the time and people are saying that he should get a pass til 5

[Archer]

Bort is villagey because they left a vote on Striker pre-bussing time. That's good enough for me rn.

Aman is very village. His post dissecting Striker's reads list and subsequent follow-ups were definitely not e-e. 

If you buy that Striker's out was a mix of me, the elims had to lay the groundwork for voting me at some point. JNV doubling down fits that bill. 

Orlok's vote post C1 really looked like bussing. As did XP and Ash's comments, although XP voting with Striker looks better to me because you'd think they'd try to distance better. 

I feel like TUA is a longer shot than Ash, and I'll be suspicious if we keep shooting peripheral candidates. TUA didn't even vote, let's refocus on the bottom of the bottom of the list. Can't help but feel like Illwei is buying time, even if I kinda agree with their strategy. 

[Kasimir]

Sorry Thaid :/ Getting some Falcon flashbacks from this, though honestly well-deserved. Didn't think through V!Thaid possibilities enough, or at least just started to think in terms of Thaid-or-Ash.

I...At least based off when I last left off, I'm still leaning Village on Ash, even if it's honestly based off some vibes from that thread interaction. Working off that, if V/V, Elims should have low investment, though a five vote train still feels pretty sizeable to me. Would imagine low penetration on the Thaid train, potential low penetration on Ash train - stacking up doesn't make sense in a V/V case due to indifference. I'll run through the V/E case just for thoroughness later on when I've had some sleep. Whatever Archer said about built-in cycle naptime. 

Devo kill is throwing me for a damned loop and bringing to mind Fifth's LG83 quote about trying to work out what a team of psychopaths has in mind. And she was single-handedly holding down the RP fort while the rest of us have been remiss in our duties :| I'd have thought the Elims would've gone either for Aman or left the Striker wagon untouched, but maybe I'm just old school. I do feel like Devo's posts were fairly Village, but at the same time, Devo's infamous for being difficult to read in that E! and V! Devo have very little variance (hence most often last Elim standing and mechanically outed) - so I do wonder that they went for her at all.

More thoughts after sleep, but:

@Amanuensis - DWAI man, I just wanted to make my line in the sand clear  I'm aware that this tendency of mine is well-known and some players (even if not you) may genuinely want to use it as an alignment barometer for me. So I felt it was a good time to clearly address it since it's never been a healthy tendency of mine, and I am actively working on finding various methods and techniques to let go of the emotions because I'm kind of done with emotional self-harm as a playstyle quirk. Buddhist parable of the monks and the river applies here, as I told I think...Striker, Experience, and Devo? In the LG.

On my part, I would say that it's my job to try to be as clear/easy to read as possible, so I need to do that more. I'm happy to accept the consequences of removing ML guilt from my Village play as far as possible and I don't expect players to cut me slack for it, I just do intend to defuse expectations that this will keep being a reliable tell/exist because that's not a healthy state of affairs. Fully respect the need for more data points

@Ashbringer - It was rough but I appreciated the mercy-killing  Thanks, Santa Klaus!

[Ashbringer]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Devo kill is throwing me for a damned loop and bringing to mind Fifth's LG83 quote about trying to work out what a team of psychopaths has in mind. And she was single-handedly holding down the RP fort while the rest of us have been remiss in our duties :| I'd have thought the Elims would've gone either for Aman or left the Striker wagon untouched, but maybe I'm just old school. I do feel like Devo's posts were fairly Village, but at the same time, Devo's infamous for being difficult to read in that E! and V! Devo have very little variance (hence most often last Elim standing and mechanically outed) - so I do wonder that they went for her at all.

You'd probably know this better than I do - how much to Maill and Bort know about Devotary's playstyle? Because JNV's the only remaining player who I think hasn't played many games with Devotary.

 

I'm going to try something. A bit busy today but tomorrow is the start of Spring Break which is... still really busy because of all the catchup I need to do, but I'll have somewhat more time.

[Mailliw73]

Plenty of people have played with Devo more than I have but I’ve played a few. I have a hard time reading them but like Kas said, they’re famous for that. 

[---]

@Archer without thread votes to count when people actually voted for everyone, what do you consider "bussing time"

[Experience]

Well, I'm mostly lucid at this point.

4 hours ago, Archer said:

Bort is villagey because they left a vote on Striker pre-bussing time. That's good enough for me rn.

Ummm...how do you know when they placed their vote? Just based off when they posted? And what exactly pre-bussing time? I...didn't realize there was such a thing...

[Archer]

I think the elims would have waited to submit their actual votes until the very end of the round, which is when the actual bussing technically occurred.

People have said Bort was offline for the back half of the cycle, call it 11pm PST to 11am. You could make the argument that by 11pm, Striker knew they were in trouble based on an inability to come up with a viable CW, but most elim teams would wait until the morning to see where things stand before deciding to bus. If e!Bort knew they'd be inactive, they wouldn't leave a vote on Striker that might hurt his team if the thread shifted near rollover to give Striker a better shot at survival. If e!Bort didn't plan on being inactive, I think they wouldn't leave a placeholder vote on a teammate under serious pressure. The only scenario I could see them being evil with a vote like that is if they kinda knew they'd have to bus and put the vote in, then checked the Shard in the morning without logging in and decided to just leave it. But then, why not get some extra village cred by cursing out Striker near rollover? 

What's their timezone, anyone know? 

[Kasimir]

10 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

You'd probably know this better than I do - how much to Maill and Bort know about Devotary's playstyle? Because JNV's the only remaining player who I think hasn't played many games with Devotary.

What Maili said. Maili and Devo were Elims together in my LG74 game and I know they've had previous playhistory, so Maili would be familiar. Bort...no idea but in LG83, Drake got me to read QF30 to understand how much thread control the Elim team of that game might need, and that game featured V!Bort and E!Devo. So I'm guessing some playhistory, minimally.

6 hours ago, Archer said:

What's their timezone, anyone know? 

Last I checked/remembered, Bort was UK-based like Wyrm, so GMT for them both. But caveat that this is me going off LG15b era memories here, and IDK if he moved since. Wait, you were teammates and you don't even know his timezone?  Broooooooooo.

So here's the thing. I'm likely to be tied down with work from Monday to Tuesday, so if it comes to that, I'll basically be low bandwidth. So my best shot is committing to try to get analysis done over the weekend, and then doing what I can on those days. 

Current plan is to actually systematically go through the thoughts I've entertained across this game and to see where they make sense and where they don't. Probably should have done this sooner but LG83 chill mode dies hard. Fair warning this is me doing thought scratch table mode, so it may not really help with the discussion. I'll circle round back to that later. Some of it is really just me asking the Urbain paranoia to sit down and shut up.

First thoughts on the Thaid cycle: as Aman pointed out, he's the guy who pushed this train, mostly, from the start. This is the point at which I take one step back and ask myself in all seriousness: what are the odds Aman is deepwolfing here? Or maybe here's the better question: what would it take for Aman to be Evil, here? It's true that Aman is one hell of a scary Elim, but I like realistic strategic assessments to back raw paranoia rather than just drawing off playhistory. The one sticking point is that we'd be tied to the kayana gambit branch I mentioned last cycle - a bus so early it was essentially more or less a gambit. Maybe a four Elim team could afford to give up a player - feels too much for a three Elim team. But that just seems so wild. Like, okay, but on C1? For trust? IDK, I'm having a hard time accepting that when Aman pushed the Striker train at two key junctures (initiator, and by reaffirming his intent to vote for Striker, and with smaller junctures of subsequent interchanges with Striker. I have no doubt E!Aman could make just as convincing a train (hi Hyena!) but this just doesn't make sense to me as a strategic trade-off.) So this is a non-starter for me. (Sorry Archer, you said no one needs you to seriously go through those, but I'm doing it anyway for me.)

Quote

Thaidakar (5): Kasimir, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei
Ash (2): JNV, Archer

Which leads me to my other question, though I see I've already given the game away by shading my thoughts in the voting box. What are the odds that Archer is Evil here?

I am marginally more willing to entertain E!Archer than E!Aman but when my willingness to entertain E!Aman possibilities is very low, this also basically says E!Archer cuts no ice with me. E!Archer is typically known for deepwolfing, and Archer of either alignment is known for C1 bold ploys, yes. In an E!Archer world, this would explain the half-heartedness of the Archer CW and why Striker merely asked people to go onto Archer, rather than actually pushed hard. But then, we loop back to the exact same question: for a while, there was a credible sense of a threat to Archer. What sort of Elim team puts both members under fire? Especially with the vote uncertainty caused by Archer's own proposal? (Three even, if you have E!Ash credences. At this point I'm leaning V on Ash, but Striker/Ash/Archer E/E/E and all up for the lynch would be an appalling failure of thread control from Archer, and makes no sense as a plan and I've seen kdramas with plots that make more sense than that.)

I don't deny that gaining trust can be valuable, but it boils down to what the trust is used for. At this juncture, it just doesn't make sense to me as a trade-off. The raw possibility of a deepwolf doesn't justify suspicion at this point. Even deepwolves have to bite eventually. (Hi TJ  )

I think the better read of C1 is that Archer was the favoured CW to Striker. This does make me suspicious of those pushing Archer, but that's for later - for now, suffice to say that the push for CW Archer makes me fairly willing to go V!Archer.

But I also think Ash is Village, though much less strongly than my Aman/Archer reads. I've hesitated but after sleeping on it and finding a more coherent way of putting down my thoughts, I do believe Elims are more pragmatic about principles, and Ash preferring not to save his life by cashing in on Thaid outrage or Aman's info about the two accounts - it's possible that E!Ash would be principled either way, but that and the flat "okay, lynch me if you need to, hope my flip helps" jointly tip me towards V!Ash. I've stated before my thoughts about genuine willingness to die being more Village than Evil. I'm not fully sure I got that emotional valence off Ash, but I do feel that it comes back to my thoughts on the Striker bus: that it was not a gambit, and on further thought, Ash also felt resigned to death or genuinely indifferent, and I'm struggling to see this coming from an Elim who has already lost a teammate C1.

Is the Thaid train a pure Village train? I don't know. This would depend on Illwei. In a V!Ash world, JNV could be an Elim pushing a ML. This would be consistent with my views on V!Archer and explain JNV's vote on that train as well. In an E!Ash world, I'm willing to lean a bit more V on JNV - Elims likely had to factor in that my vote on Ash would not have moved. But Ash was decidedly late to self-pres (though E!Ash could of course be lying and have sent the order in all along, but what would the possible votecount look like?)

Quote

Thaidakar (4): Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei
Ash (3): JNV, Archer, Kasimir

Even with the knowledge Ash self-presed, it's dangerously close, especially in a game where Villagers can send in votes without much signalling. I'm not sure I buy that E!JNV was distancing - given E!Ash, this scenario tilts me towards V!JNV.

Another option:

Quote

Thaidakar (4): Kasimir, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei
Ash (3): JNV, Archer, Devotary

FYI that this looks even worse, if you also think Illwei is Evil (I'm conflicted, but at this point, I also think I generally consciously struggle to read Illwei despite actually seemingly not being awful at it.) JNV's distancing here requires Illwei to show up to save Ash, and also again - vote volatility. It's true Illwei has a good risk appetite, but I'm still leaning V!JNV in this E!Ash scenario. I don't know I can see the Elim team taking the risk, given their C1.

A third option:

Quote

Thaidakar (3): Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei
Ash (4): JNV, Archer, Devotary, Kasimir

This is what I mean by volatility. In this world, E!Ash dies. Do they want to gamble that I'd be a straight shooter this cycle rather than sneaky with my vote again, given how I kept hopping between Thaid and Ash? I don't know. Similar diagnosis to the other cases - I still think JNV looks more V in this scenario.

And having done all this work, I'm going to proceed to throw it out the window anyway because I'm more committed to V!Ash than I am to E!Ash

In a V Ash world, Thaid/Ash become a V/V train.

Quote

Thaidakar (5): Kasimir, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei
Ash (2): JNV, Archer

Given the current state of my credences, potential places for Elims to be would be JNV, or Illwei, or the non-voters, inclusive of: <TUA, Experience, Maili, Bort, Orlok.>

I lean Village on Maili and Bort. So I guess Illwei's six question answers itself here. I'll say more about it in the reads list. At this point, I'd be okay with a vote on JNV. In a V!JNV world, unless E!Illwei, I'm committed to more of the Elims being in the non-voters. But I strongly suspect that something is off and I'll need to revise some credences somewhere - this just feels too 'neat' or 'too clean', as it were. Patji all over again.

Current State of Kas's Reads:

Regular Casanovas [=Moderate Village]:

Spoiler

• Aman

Assess moderate credence. There's a kayana distant possible world in which Aman is Evil but I just can't see the Striker thing as a gambit, God help me. It makes no sense, and I don't know what sort of psychopath would just set this up from the start. The two key junctures at which he pushed Striker and his interactions with Striker just seem like a Villager pressuring an Elim.

• Archer

This one is...I hesitate a bit more over Archer than Aman, probably because I've played E!Archer more than E!Aman, but ultimately, I think it's only fair to put him in this tier. 

Cute First Date [=Light Village]:

Spoiler

• Maili

Assess light credence - if we think Striker was bussed and I still don't think it was a willing sacrifice, Maili logged in and had the opportunity to intervene. I'm not convinced that E!Maili could let a teammate die this easily. I guess the reason this is a light credence is that Maili is a gambit god but still, that's too kayana for my liking. I think the lack of intervention from Maili is positive.

• Bort

Assess light credence - we could assume the Elims had engaged bus mode and Bort simply signed off and didn't sign back on in time, but given that Bort is GMT, I think he could very well have signed in in time - rollovers are at...7PM in GMT, if my calculations are right, since they're at 3AM for me. @Archer - you were Evil with Bort, how good was he about being around when you guys needed him? At this point, the vote is good enough for me too, since Bort wasn't around at rollover to submit a late bus vote. I *guess* I could see some ersatz world where Bort logs in to the Elim doc, and then sees the commitment to bus and stays off the Shard, but... IDK. Probably a couple reasons why he's not in a higher tier I guess.

Nayana [=Null+]

Spoiler

• Ash

Assess light credence. As stated, I just don't see Ash's attitude towards death making sense from an Elim. The counterpoint is that E!Ash I suppose is apathetic, but he did say he was trying to kick that pattern and he was fairly honest about engaging Dingo mode. I sort of went between Light Village and Null+ on Ash, and I guess it's no surprise I downgraded him yet again, but it really boils down to how much weight to give my thoughts that welcoming/dgaf about death versus Ash's known Elim indifference. I'm currently leaning in favour of the dgaf being more Village than just E!Ash, so he's still in Null+.

Deader Than A Triton Moon [=Null]

Spoiler

• Illwei

I'm of the view I'll always consciously struggle to read Illwei more than actually bears out, which is unfair to Illwei because she can be read. I have thoughts on this but they're really better suited for anywhere other than the thread. My issue with Illwei is that she fits the same vote and train profiles as JNV does, but at the same time, I like her posts this cycle. So I'm chunking her back up into Null.

• Orlok

This one...I hesitate. I absolutely had to downgrade Orlok after that late vote, as I don't like it at all. I get that Orlok is busy with RL and wish him the best with it because RL happens. I think the main hesitancy I have with whether to put Orlok in Null or Null- is exactly how much we've seen from him, and the lingering question at the back of my head as to whether a player of Orlok's calibre would do something so obvious when Evil. But then the other part of me says again: play stupid logic puzzles, get stupid logic prizes.

• Experience

I still felt a bit eh about his first post, and my diagnosis of why I felt eh is that it just felt a lot more hedgy than the initial reactions to Archer. I don't have a strong read of Experience of any sort, and so Experience is more or less in null by default. I'm not too convinced that Experience's comments on voting are tied to Ash's. Or at least, Ash's EoC was one of the reasons I began side-eying Ash to begin with, so.

• TUA

I'm just going to be blunt. The only thing keeping TUA from being in Null- for me right now is the knowledge that V!TUA does ??? as a player or says stuff I genuinely can't grok, and I don't know if it's TUA being TUA again, and that's colouring my reactions to him. Against that, I weigh the knowledge that he is very reactive/defensive in response to pressure as an Elim. It's partly an Elim profile issue as well.

Swipe Left [=Null-]

Spoiler

• JNV

This is me running off raw vote patterns here - being on the Archer (Striker designated CW) and Ash trains (if we think there was Elim influence on the Ash train), and down to Elim profile as well. Given V!Archer the designated CW, I expect some Elim involvement in that CW beyond just Striker. I felt that JNV's Archer push was a bit too strong for what was a disagreement of reasoning, and I wonder if it was because the Archer train needed to take off. Against that, I weigh the fact that I know this is my weakness as a player, and something I've tried very hard to control ever since MLing Orlok in LG12, and Creccio in LG15b.

Given my current distribution of credences, I'm not exactly going to be upset with a TUA lynch, but I'm currently most down for JNV.

Anyone want to talk about when you placed your votes last cycle? I sent mine shortly after my post on ML guilt in which I swapped for the last time from Ash to Thaid, then went back to my cases.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Kasimir
formatting

[---]

Illwei/Orlok/Exp/TUA/JNV?

mmmmmm. Anyways.

@Kasimir I placed my vote on Thaid practically the moment I opened my computer and caught up.

6 hours ago, Experience said:

Well, I'm mostly lucid at this point.

Ummm...how do you know when they placed their vote? Just based off when they posted? And what exactly pre-bussing time? I...didn't realize there was such a thing...

I feel like something in me isn't working. I should be able to read both Exp easier, and I should have been able to read Thaid better. I also fully believe that I should have a read on Orlok and Bort, which I don't.
Either way bad vibes from this post despite the fact I also asked. The way this is typed though....mm.

I honestly don't fully believe in a V!Archer world but I'm willing to try and overlook that and just sheep the consensus for now, who seem to believe Archer is V.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I honestly don't fully believe in a V!Archer world but I'm willing to try and overlook that and just sheep the consensus for now, who seem to believe Archer is V.

Honestly, why?

I'm willing to be talked around if there's something I'm missing. I respect V!Illwei's thought processes enough, even if I don't know for sure if you're V!Illwei.

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Illwei/Orlok/Exp/TUA/JNV?

E!Aman's not negotiable for me at this juncture. I'd like to hear you out on Archer even if I don't realistically feel I'm swapping my tiers on him right now. I guess the exchange between you and Archer have persuaded me I might be too hasty on Bort and I've been going back and forth on Ash. But this is sort of what I'm left with.

I guess Maili could be busier than usual but the idea of Maili not even attempting thread control for his teammate C1 is a very hard pill for me to swallow. I have more respect for E!Maili's abilities than that, given his playhistory (LG51, LG74...)

[---]

54 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Honestly, why?

I don't believe in an E!Archer world much either, I just. I'm right now pretty much following Matrim on him rn. Matrim and the current crowd. My problem is honestly that it seems like these Archer V reads are for being the CW to Striker, when it barely seemed like anyone tried to push things onto Archer. In the middle of a re-read so potentially wrong here. It ended up with Striker vs. Ash anyways, not Archer. the Archer counterwagon didn't even go anywhere. Perhaps I'm not understanding something?

--

Unrelated Tinfoil, open at your own risk

Spoiler

 

Okay, not something I'm going to explore really, but one of the reasons I want to flip TUA is because I think that he has been suspicious, but also that the only world that makes sense to me about Aman being an Elim is if TUA is also an Elim. I can't really elaborate much on this but it's something in my head and I'm trying to get it out so maybe it doesn't eat all of my thoughts. Devo and Matrim being kills is strange to me, which is why I've decided to just try following them, which is what leads me for the most part to voting on Ash right now.

To clarify: I think TUA has elim equity and /if/ he is an Elim than Aman's Equity rises. I am not saying that I think if TUA is an Elim then Aman is as well.

 

EDIT:

Regardless of what the approach implies, I do think that Striker's approach to both TUA and Ash were similar. That they were the most similar reads. the only people that he really said "should look more into" to.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Illwei

[Kasimir]

Late reply due to re-reading again.

@Illwei, why Thaid? I noticed your last post in that cycle was basically about Ash rather than Thaid. Do I infer correctly it was meant to protect Ash?

54 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I don't believe in an E!Archer world much either, I just. I'm right now pretty much following Matrim on him rn. Matrim and the current crowd. My problem is honestly that it seems like these Archer V reads are for being the CW to Striker, when it barely seemed like anyone tried to push things onto Archer. In the middle of a re-read so potentially wrong here. It ended up with Striker vs. Ash anyways, not Archer. the Archer counterwagon didn't even go anywhere. Perhaps I'm not understanding something?

From my perspective, it did look like it. We had a EoC with Archer and Ash both being live contentions, with JNV's strong push against Archer, and you and Ash both stating issues with Archer or at least intent to go on Archer. On re-reading, I had confused your later post on Archer with your earlier post on Archer, so you're essentially not my major suspect on the Archer CW theory. IDK, I feel like E!Illwei would push more strongly. Even before realising my mistake, you were still a lot more tentative than JNV in my view, since you threw a point out there, which is key in why I'm going for JNV rather than you. (My lean Village on Ash also helps with that.)

That the Archer CW didn't go anywhere I attribute to fog-of-war rather than lack of intent, since we knew there was a bus, and the idea that the Elim team tried a hardcore gambit D1 is just kayana to me. Doesn't make it impossible, but a lot more weird drek would have to go down this game to convince me to explore that world.

And if your take is that Ash is the CW, then shouldn't you think V!Ash?

Response to tinfoil:

Spoiler

• I'm trying to understand your line of thought here. You thinking there's a light connection because of Aman V!reading TUA? Is best I can make of this.
   
• I'm less confused by the Mat kill because I remember Mat getting C1 NKed at least once, though I think that was with E!Archer, E!Araris, and...oh. And E!TUA, in MR52. I...see where you're coming from. But yeah, the Devo kill is really throwing me. I'm confused about why they'd narrow the Striker pool. It really takes me back to the double Ocho kill in AG8 because killing the CW, why.
   
• To exchange one tinfoil for another, I've been privately suspecting that one reason the Elims did not bite on my side-trains (which, TBH, was just a play for info and it only became more key to me after Striker flipped) was that there was at least one Elim in that pool, and the one I was pushing more was JNV. How much weight do I want to put on this? I don't know, as the Elims might easily just have decided to go all-in on Archer. I also don't expect myself to be that good. But I do think the lack of reaction is a data point, because again C1 gambit makes no sense to me, and you typically do not hit a bus off the bat. One option I have also considered is that they were trying for non-reactivity (like Cham did in AG8.) So it's not a smoking gun to me, but it's one reason I have admittedly been looking in that direction.
   
• I'm strongly suspecting there's a mistake somewhere in my pool. But that's the sort of thing I have to get to with credence revision and updating for new information.

 

[Ashbringer]

Okay. Here goes.

Striker's reads (ELIM, C1 EXE):

Spoiler

• Village read on Devo, Aman, Illwei, JNV; Elim read on Mat, TUA, Archer, reads Ash c-o-l-o-r-s (mixed) (taken from Aman's interpretation, so may need to revisit)
• Clarifies null+ on Devo, null on Thaid
• Mass-tag to drag the vote towards Archer
• "Wouldn't complain" about Ash instead of him

Mat's reads (VILLAGE, C1 KILL):

Spoiler

• Leaning village on Archer and Illwei, leaning village but less so on Exp
• Elim reads Striker enough to vote
• Keeps vote on Striker, other options are Ash or Archer but explicitly prefers Striker
• Doesn't like Ash countertrain

Thaid's reads (VILLAGE, C2 EXE):

Spoiler

• Says Ash and Illwei are sus, votes Ash end of C2

Devo's reads (VILLAGE, C2 KILL):

Spoiler

• Didn't catch anything D1, other than vaguely positive interactions with Archer.
• Elim reads + votes Striker, slight Elim read on Ash
• -
• Somewhat trusts Bort for Striker vote?
• Notes JNV as a potential Elim making a train that opposed Striker's.
• Votes Ash mostly based on Striker-Archer interactions.
• Removes Ash vote after a counterargument from Aman (Striker at one point said Archer-Ash suspicions were independent). Willing to wait a cycle on Ash.

Would you look at that, both NKs read me vaguely evil. Isn't that neat.

Mat I'm fairly certain was an NK because of how strongly he pushed Striker late C1. Devotary doesn't have that - her main suspicions were me (who's theoretically Village) and JNV (who's on my not-cleared list but also wasn't in much danger at all C2). So why Devotary? Why not another player more trusted from the Striker exe, like Bort or Aman? As much as I'd like to think the Elims don't want to kill the returning players, Aman did suggest a kill on himself. Which means either 1) the Elims trust me more than Aman or 2) there's another reason. (Less so on Bort, just because he's returning a lot sooner, is potentially first Village game in... a while, and is less thread-solvey.)

So who'd kill Devo over Aman? Who's calling the shots?

The nagging, itching, LG74-pocket-remembering part of my brain says Maill. I could probably be convinced of JNV, seeing as they seem to know what they're doing (good Investigator run by the way), but my old kill analysis days keep me thinking that other players would make those decisions and I think JNV would also advocate Bort. There's also Kas, feeling the sting of guilt from killing Aman so quickly in the BT. Or, of course, Aman himself. But those two are increasingly less likely.

... who else is playing this game.

Oh. Orlok. Similar situation as Maill.

I'm on Spring Break (yay!) so I don't know when I'm going to wake up. I'll toss a vote on one of @Mailliw73 and @Orlok Tsubodai and ask you both why you think the Elims killed Devotary (not necessarily instead of Aman/Bort, just in general). If you all go bandwagony I'll probably move over to JNV.

 

General gut reads have Illwei leaning Elim a bit. But that went so well for everyone last time that I'll hold off on that and try mechanics things.

[Bort]

Hey guys, sorry I missed the vote. I'm used to the end of the cycle being in the middle of the night for me and I hadn't spotted it ended so early.

I'm going mostly off gut here, but I think I'll be voting today for Illwei.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

That the Archer CW didn't go anywhere I attribute to fog-of-war rather than lack of intent, since we knew there was a bus, and the idea that the Elim team tried a hardcore gambit D1 is just kayana to me. Doesn't make it impossible, but a lot more weird drek would have to go down this game to convince me to explore that world.

Weird drek like seemingly nonsense elim kills?

I think this could be an option, depending on balance. There was some talk earlier in the game about how many elims are out there. People in thread were thinking either 3 or 4. Given the relatively low number of players, 3 made sense to most, but if it was 4, then in a short game, then this kind of gambit could make sense. It would immediately put the survivor in a vaguely trusted position, since which elim would push a vote onto one of their allies on D1? Exactly your logic here Kas. In a short game like a QF, that really could pay off.

I also think that this is the kind of tactic that e!Archer would get behind.

**********************************************************************************************

Bortington the Blind reached out and touched the beard. "Incredible!" He exclaimed. "That's as hard as rock! Perhaps I was wrong about the beard wax from Nalthis. You, Sir, will have to tell me where you get such excellent beard care products. I must visit the place!"

While he was waiting for the statue to respond, Luna came flitting up to him on a wisp of beard hair.

"Bortington, ummm, I think you're supposed to be voting." She points to where the contestants were gathered. "And I don't think this has anything to do with beards at all. Are you sure we're in the right place?"

"What? Nonsense, Luna! Why else would they get this man to stand here where all can admire his beard? But voting, you say? What? On who?"

He turned from the statue to see where Luna was pointing, then squinted his eyes as he examined them.

"That one!" Bortington said as he pointed towards Albert. "I don't know what he thinks that is on his chin, but it's no beard," he explained, stroking his luxurious white expanse of facial fur. "He should be nowhere near a documentary about the wonders of beards."

 

[Kasimir]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Would you look at that, both NKs read me vaguely evil. Isn't that neat.

I can feel the IKYK gaping there, and I don't even want to go near it :| Good catch, though - I think I was thinking too big picture.

To me, this would mesh with the fact you've essentially been in the crosshairs since C1, which is frustrating because either way there's a powerful temptation to flip and check if we buy that NK framework (just ask Stick about how both Fifth and I toyed with the idea of checking the LG83 D1 CW out of paranoia even though we both thought her Village) and I don't like being played this way by the Elims. Or there's Illwei's mention this is your kill pattern, I guess. But killing everyone who reads E!Ash - too obvious? Feels like the playerbase largely doesn't do much NK analysis anymore.

2 hours ago, Bort said:

Weird drek like seemingly nonsense elim kills?

>>

I take your point, sir.

But no, that being said, it's the Devo kill that's throwing me. From an informational perspective, it's mixed: it narrows the Striker voter pool, and it kills a potentially ambiguous player. I honestly was a bit more strong in stating my Devo read, probably for rhetorical reasons, than I privately believed - it all comes back to the fact that I've misread E!Devo as V!Devo before because it really is very difficult to tell the difference, and in most cases, I could not have done so without mechanical analysis of some sort. So like with Araris, I'm always prepared to revise my beliefs on Devo because I'm aware there's more room for error there. I don't think my experience with Devo is a unique one, either. So given this, I'm struggling to see if framing Ash was worth the trade-off (if the Striker train really was pure which I currently can't quite bring myself to believe, then this becomes a moot point) because Ash was already quite endangered on C2, and it feels like the Thaid swing was more last minute than anything, since Devo, JNV, and Illwei were all late voters.

Which is a bit of a segue but:

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

So who'd kill Devo over Aman? Who's calling the shots?

I do have a private theory that I hadn't really shared with the thread yet, but I have been wondering if they are trying to pull the "why are you still alive" line and go for a ML on Aman at some point if he's not dead. (To a weaker extent, potentially Archer?) I would hope they won't do that, as both Aman and Orlok especially have bad history with that line, and El and I explained as much in MR56 why we try not to go there. 

But even that possibility is kayana because this requires a player capable of actually facing down Aman in the thread. As you pointed out, there's a reason BT1 Kas just elected to NK Aman off the bat. There are only so many players in this game I think could have that capability or confidence, among them Archer, Maili, Orlok, potentially Illwei at a glance. But would anyone try this after MR56? I feel like a decent chunk of players, myself included, would make it very clear we don't want to advance that particular line of reasoning. I think Orlok and Maili would both absolutely not countenance this. More so on the former because again - Aman and Orlok were the two players who suffered the most from this. Archer is a non-starter for me, and I'm not sure if Illwei would be this spicy.

(Again, I'm not interested in entertaining E!Aman possibilities at this point in time. I do have a mental suspicion threshold, and it hasn't been reached yet. So on that, we're in agreement.)

I could see JNV potentially pushing Devo - they played with SK!Devo in MR56, if we're thinking of it as a threat kill. But IDK - SK play =/= Village play. JNV was also fairly protective of returning players in LG83, which I do appreciate, even if I'm also voting on them :/

My question is, would you consider the Mat over Aman choice also spicy? Because looking at the pre-flip decision point: the Elims, having bussed Striker, expected one of their own to flip. I think I would have expected a retaliatory Aman C1 kill just on that basis, and indeed, taking out Mat appears to be either a threat kill or eroding the ground the Village might have expected to gain.

Should also point out you were vocally against an Aman C1 kill and in this game, asked the Elims not to kill Aman this early. In E!Ash world, it's not a call I would be surprised to see you make. In V!Ash world? You have some 1337 powers of influence, my dude  Please use them for our good. Be the hero the Village deserves!

2 hours ago, Bort said:

I think this could be an option, depending on balance. There was some talk earlier in the game about how many elims are out there. People in thread were thinking either 3 or 4. Given the relatively low number of players, 3 made sense to most, but if it was 4, then in a short game, then this kind of gambit could make sense. It would immediately put the survivor in a vaguely trusted position, since which elim would push a vote onto one of their allies on D1? Exactly your logic here Kas. In a short game like a QF, that really could pay off.

I also think that this is the kind of tactic that e!Archer would get behind.

I think we're roughly in agreement that this is a possibility - I just don't have high credences in it. I'm wary of calls to go after players I have (relatively) high Village credences in unless I have sufficient reason to rethink, and I'd agree with Aman that this threshold has not yet been reached for me in order to reconsider my current view of C1 as being a bus rather than a gambit. In general, if I have credences that are sufficiently robust, I'd rather work on refining those I'm not sure about, rather than immediately rethinking everything. I think that two days of seemingly nonsense kills isn't that call to revision. The thing is, if you think it was a gambit, then on the assumption this was a gambit, are you suggesting E!Aman? Because Aman started the Striker train, rather than Archer. I could see E!Archer liking the idea of a gambit like this under specific circumstances - I just don't think that holds true in this game based off the current state of our ignorance.

If you do have E!Archer credences, why are you going for Illwei instead, though?

Edited March 12, 2022 by Kasimir
sorry JNV! fixed pronouns

[Mailliw73]

So I don’t have much time as I’m getting ready for work and may or may not be able to get on briefly again before cycle is up. 

@Ashbringer I think Devo’s kill may have been motivated by the reason you pointed out: that you were on their top suspicions list. The fact that both Mat and Devo were suspicious of you gives me more reason to think that your flip would provide us the most information even if I’m not completely sold on you being elim. I also think Devo was starting to build village cred, I know at least Aman and I both mentioned how Devo is hard to read but we were really thinking they were village. 

[Archer]

I for one disapprove of the bus gambit C1. :P. Without a voting record for people to work off of, e!me usually treats the first cycle as a free mix requiring little work besides not getting into trouble. (Which I'm prone to doing, but ignore that.) I feel like I'd have come out more strongly against Striker for more village cred, and maybe have actually voted. The non vote thing was supposed to be a good way of signalling I'm village because I didn't self pres in the round where that might have mattered for me, but it really looks bad in a situation where most everyone else voted on an elim. 

Besides Devo being generally hard to plan for because of the timing of their votes, the best reason I've seen presented for their kill is the Ash sus. I've tended to kill people who suspect me of late, but I know most people do the opposite. Plus no one seems to want to join me on that train. 

I felt Mailliw73's reads list was off, so I'm not fully trusting of them right now. But I'll move my vote to JNV and scream if Ash is getting away with murder again. :D. 

[Amanuensis]

This is as much as I have time / feel like doing today, so people who are more available, please give these interactions a look and discuss what you think.

Striker x JNV

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

On 3/9/2022 at 6:25 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Archa: A woman with common sense in this group. I greatly agree with her thoughts on Nid, and would most likely look along with them at Nid for further inquiries about the murderers in the future. I would not think that someone who was about to commit murders would so whole-heartedly disagree with someone like Nid publicly.

On 3/9/2022 at 7:42 PM, Amanuensis said:

JNV: Agrees with JNV's opening post and supports further investigation of Archer (without voting for Archer themselves). Believes elims would not enter the thread this aggressively.

Striker's RP read and my interpretation of his read. While I did initially agree that JNV was a bit too aggressive for an elim, it's possible that with enough people vocalizing problems, it didn't feel that aggressive to them? Could JNV be stepping up as one of the elim thread controllers? Does E!Striker place E!JNV in one of his top village reads?

Keep in mind that I used Archer's contentious D1 post as a springboard for my suses + reaction test.

On 3/9/2022 at 7:42 PM, Amanuensis said:

On 3/9/2022 at 7:42 PM, Amanuensis said:

• I believe (most) elims would stand against Archer's proposition for "vote accountability" reasons because it looks village

On 3/9/2022 at 8:24 PM, StrikerEZ said:

On 3/9/2022 at 8:24 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I’m not sure what this has to do with me.

On 3/9/2022 at 9:25 PM, Amanuensis said:

On 3/9/2022 at 9:25 PM, Amanuensis said:

Basically, when Archer proposed his broad-reads-anon-voting thing, I walked myself through how people might approach it from a Village perspective and an Elim perspective. In this case, Villagers could react in pretty much any way depending on individual playstyle (in which case, I'd rely on tone reads / logical consistency to determine sincerity) while Elims would likely react in a narrower, more straightforward denial kind of way (with some exceptions depending on risk appetite) that overall looks Village-positive, in order to seem like their contributing without actually doing much. You fit the bill, as did Illwei, so for a D1 lead, that's what I'm looking at today.

On 3/9/2022 at 10:10 PM, StrikerEZ said:

On 3/9/2022 at 10:10 PM, StrikerEZ said:

…so if villagers can react in any way possible. And you say elims can react in the straightforward way…on the outside, there is no way to tell if a straightforward denial reaction is elim or village. According to your logic here. Which I find fundamentally flawed and proscribing a lot of things about what an elim may or may not do. If that make sense.

On 3/10/2022 at 9:49 AM, Amanuensis said:

On 3/10/2022 at 9:49 AM, Amanuensis said:

Like I said, I'd rely on tone reads / logical consistency to determine sincerity. For example, JNV went that route too, but he went that route hard. Elims tend to be less aggressive in scenarios like this, so I agree with your assessment that he's probably Village (might not be depending on elim doc talk - very possible that a partner who'd been following along and posting more had encouraged him to vote Archer when he came in, since a lot of people were susing Archer for it - but imo that's something I'd look into only if you and Illwei are town, which I doubt atm). It's simply more likely that JNV is a Villager overreacting to what he feels is Bad Village Play, and tbh, I can't blame him. I had the same initial reaction that he, Kas, Mat, and others had and I considered going the aggressive route too, yet held back to not sway other players. But then Archer posted more and I thought about it more and I saw how many people were becoming anti-Archer and I walked away with a V!Archer read. Now I'm convinced the elims are banking on this ML today, so anyone who encourages it gets immediate side-eye from me.

I can accept my logic could be wrong, but I'm not going to entertain that possibility until I'm proven wrong with a couple flips. And I do think it's interesting that you're arguing with my logic as a defense for yourself, since it protects Illwei too and basically everyone voting Archer or encouraging his exe. I do think you could be Village. Most players I go for on D1 end up being Village. But I highly doubt that all my suspicions are Village. Especially in a V!Archer world.

Note: Striker never responded to this last part, which deals a lot with JNV and my read of them.

Is that because he didn't want to sway my JNV read one way or another (suggesting E!JNV)? Or is it just because of time since his next post was the last hour mass call for help?

Assuming that Archer was indeed the hopeful D1 ML and both Striker and JNV believed they could blend in with the people voicing opinions against him, it's a possibility. Also note that Striker voted with Experience on Ash instead of voting with JNV on Archer. JNV was not there for EoD (I don't think) so maybe Striker really didn't think Archer was going to get any more votes besides JNV? Can someone get a feel for if the EoD candidates were more narrowly Striker/Ash and not Striker/Archer? Is it possible Striker explicitly avoided voting with his partner JNV?

 

Striker x Illwei

Spoiler

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Striker x Ashbringer

Spoiler

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Striker x TUA

Spoiler

 

On 3/9/2022 at 6:25 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Floradel: Responded to Nid's suggestion of being a possibility for being searched very strangely. They seemed skittish, and retaliated quickly, saying they would also search them. Perhaps this is a wannabe murderer being put off by pressure before they have even done anything? Strange that they also agreed with Nid's plan, despite Nid's accusations of them. Should investigate further.

On 3/9/2022 at 7:42 PM, Amanuensis said:

TUA: Agreed with me (tbh I just pointed it out, don't actually think TUA is sus for this) that they reacted strongly to Archer saying he might be voting TUA.

On 3/9/2022 at 7:42 PM, Amanuensis said:

• I don't think TUA's reaction to Archer is sus, but an elim certainly might jump on it because they're looking for maximum MLs

On 3/9/2022 at 8:24 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Idk, I think it’s sus. Especially because TUA was just an option Archer gave for himself.

On 3/9/2022 at 9:25 PM, Amanuensis said:

But, like. Why would an elim react that way in this circumstance, or even mention retaliating? As you pointed out, TUA kind of agreed with what Archer was saying, so it's not like he's sus of him. Personally, I would expect an elim to not care about a single random vote (that's just a maybe between 3 options) when they've got 2 other elims to vote alongside them. Feels like a standard Villager-reacts-to-page-1-poke-vote-with-a-poke-vote to me.

On 3/9/2022 at 10:10 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Hmmm. My thought process was more that TUA would’ve been feeling pressure from Archer and was trying to react to that, but you’re right that he wouldn’t really need to feel much pressure in that scenario. I’ll have to rethink TUA.

And that's it for Striker/TUA. I stand by my initial read that Striker took my TUA ML bait that I'd set up earlier, by pointing out his Archer retaliation vote. I could be wrong here since I don't think I have an independent TUA read, but unlike the Illwei thing, he actually starts considering my take.

 

Conclusion

Spoiler

I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT HAPPENED AND I'M SO UPSET

I HAD MY ENTIRE POST DONE AND I HIT SEND

"This field is required."

WHAT FIELD? WHY DID HITTING SUBMIT DELETE OVER HALF OF MY POST?

I'M ALREADY HAVING A TERRIBLE WEEKEND AND I TRIED TO BE POSITIVE WITH MY SEND OFF AND I'M ACTUALLY TRIGGERED

I DON'T KNOW IF I HAVE THE TIME OR THE HEART TO REDO MY ILLWEI AND ASH BITS BUT THEY'RE TOO IMPORTANT NOT TOO AND I'M ANGRY

WTH 17TH SHARD

 

 

ED1T:

The original Conclusion.

I'm voting between Illwei and JNV today. Will defer to other's arguments for which because I really don't have the time or spoons to be leading any more exes.

I still believe Ash and TUA are Village based on Striker interactions, but if you're Village, make your own judgments and follow your heart. I could very well be pocketed by Ash (not because of his actions, but because of my own logic and poe)

I'm actually, legitimately begging the elims to kill me today (seriously) because I'm dealing with some IRL things rn that are much more important and I really cannot mentally afford to be splitting my brainspace between that and this game anymore.

I hope you're all having a good day / weekend. Or at least a better one than I am.

Much love,

Aman <3

Edited March 12, 2022 by Amanuensis