Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Emerald Falcon]

I like that they were vanilla, that probably tells us something about role composition on the Elim team/game. Probably. Not that I'm going to look into it. 

[Coral Swan]

Just now, Emerald Falcon said:

I like that they were vanilla, that probably tells us something about role composition on the Elim team/game. Probably. Not that I'm going to look into it. 

It tells us that the elims don't all have roles :P. And maybe that the ones they do are more powerful- the option of fewer but better roles as opposed to more but weaker roles. But it's one flip so who knows.

I should RP more. Su's probably annoyed he hasn't been in focus.

Praise the Ja!

[Onyx Flamingo]

Does a little dance.

That's all from me for now folks.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Onyx Flamingo

[Pearl Chameleon]

okay, so, that's cool

i was right about gorilla, even if i thought i was more right about falcon or alby

that vote manip is crazy

[Magenta Albatross]

Well we got one. And we know we have a Rioter and Soother around.

Edit: Im tired, is that just one Rioter cancelling their own vote and moving a Falcon vote to Gorilla?

Edited January 12, 2022 by Magenta Albatross

[Salmon Meerkat]

26 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

I think this reflects on a lot of people, I'll check that (though someone else [Meerkat] will probably get to it first). Good job ensuring it went through with that manip, people xD

Message received, thanks  Nice writeup, too.

Praise the Ja!

Meerkat will not, Meerkat is tired  

I trust this at least makes up for the massive trauma I must have caused with my gambit? =)

Well, maybe later. If you guys can accept a substandard Tineye message from me and prefer me to look at the voting patterns....

Is that even a question

[Coral Swan]

5 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Meerkat will not, Meerkat is tired  

Your track record suggests that though this might be true, it won't make a difference :P.

It should though. Go to sleep.  (I should follow my own advice)

Praise the Ja!

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Alright going back to D1 because of the flip - 

Quote

Saffron Iguana 

I don't even know what to say about my vote. 3 way tie could be interesting, though Iguana can easily self save as they haven't voted. Vote manip could also shake things up and provide information or not. We've had lots of vote shifting today, most of which was hard for me to keep up on while at work and then having limited time to try to analyze things. All three of them have been active so I think any of them being exed is going to give us some sort of information at least.

^ Albatross' vote to make it 3-3-3 here looks quite bad. I suppose it could have been worse if they would have put Crocodile to 4, but the knowledge of the vote manips could have allowed them to safely make it 3-3-3 and not be worried about Gorilla's death

Quote

So the Pearl votes have completely dissolved and now it's Turquoise and Mauve tied at three. Now, Saffron is also up there. The Mauve votes feel like they happened suddenly even though the first vote was a while ago. Fuchsia had a bad gut read of Mauve, Onyx thought they were being defensive, Emerald has detailed and more aggressive than I'd expect an elim to be willing to be reasoning to vote Mauve. The wanting to go for Quartz instead of Saffron or Pearl, or Gorilla, or any other less active, is the more pertinent detail. Turquoise is fun because they were reading Pearl and Mauve as village back when those were viable alternatives, and also didn't think much of voting for Charcoal, all of which limit their options. Nothing stops multiple of those from being evil. Saffron pushes a revenge vote on someone with none despite being tied for the lead, which strikes me as wrong. Gorilla has now voted. I don't like getting ties on purpose. I don't feel great about Saffron. I really don't like this late minute push on them so I'll vote Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla and see what hapens.

And Scorpion's vote here looks really really good, there's no reason you bus a teammate when two villager are right there with 4 votes.

From last cycle, Swan was the first vote and Flamingo was the second on Gorilla (still confused about this because from D1 EoD, Flamingo - Gorilla team makes sense but Flamingo voted on them fairly early last cycle, so bus? or was 2nd vote deemed not to dangerous to back off later and then votes just piled up?). Feel like I'm a bit confident to start weaning off Meerkat paranoia with that 3rd vote on Gorilla. Between the second and third vote on Gorilla, there was second vote on Beagle [from Falcon] and a second vote and third vote on Falcon [by Chameleon and Rhino] so these can be marked for attempting to start a counter-wagon. 

Falcon was the closest to actually come up to match the vote tally of Gorilla which might have been an attempt to save Gorilla which they realized was futile and fell off. 

Bringing back my Charcoal Hyena theory that they attempted to paint Iguana more suspiciously than Gorilla during their respective ISOs during D2 to note here.

[Onyx Flamingo]

2 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Gorilla team makes sense but Flamingo voted on them fairly early last cycle, so bus? or was 2nd vote deemed not to dangerous to back off later and then votes just piled up?).

Nah I just thought they were the best option as a vote from the beginning of the day, following the Meerkat ~drama.~  I had plenty of chances to back off on Gorilla but instead argued my point and tried to convince some others to join me. Make of that what you will lol

[Mint Heron]

That gives us a lot. We know for a fact that Day 1 was V/V/E which gives us a great village read on Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, and Violet Axolotl. However, I can't say the same thing about Day 3. With the vote margin before manipulation being 8 to 4, there's a possibility we're dealing with a bus, but I don't think that's the case.

1. Coral Swan's been on the Gorilla train since Day 1. Highly unlikely they're evil at this point.
2. Onyx Flamingo really got the ball rolling, so I highly doubt they're evil.
3. Salmon Meerkat is crazy, but he was definitely on the right track with this push, so I'm willing to trust him.
4. Fuschia Ostrich's tone is a bit odd, but he does break the tie to make the vote point to an elim, which has to be worth something. Most likely a Villager.
5. Quartz Zebra is drunk. However, he does further the train, whereas elim Zebra could tie it back up. Given the lack of effort in his posts, I think he's village.
6. Magenta Albatross's vote is extremely non-committal. It's purely to cement a train in, rather than any actual suspicion. Normally, I would say this might be the start of a bus. However, Gorilla voted for Albatross earlier on in the Day, which calls that read into question. Pinging people after you make an unpopular push reads very elim in hindsight, so I think Gorilla's vote was genuine, and not a distancing tactic. Overall, Albatross is Village, I guess, but it's an awkward read for me.
7. Amethyst Scorpion flips from Onyx Flamingo to Gorilla. Outstanding move. In addition, they voted on Gorilla Day 1. Definitely Village.
8. Emerald Falcon was the other exe candidate. If Gorilla was indeed a bus, it would have to be E/E here. That's still a possibility though, and would highly complicate the preceding analysis. I think all the people voting on Falcon (Vulture, Chameleon, Rhinoceros, and Beagle), are much better kill candidates than him though. If one of them flips Evil, that's practically a guarantee we had a V/E scenario on our hands.

So, all in all, this clears a third of the players for me, and makes us much more likely to hit another Spiked now. I've always had trouble analyzing with no Elim deaths, but once one's dead, you can expect me to pursue that thread until we root them all out.

[Emerald Falcon]

Out of this I think one of my more solid village reads is Amethyst, with the interaction on D2 between them and Gorilla.

32	[P]	Amethyst Scorpion	votes	Turquoise Gorilla	^	1
33	[P]	Turquoise Gorilla	unvotes	Magenta Albatross	-	2
34	[P]	Turquoise Gorilla	votes	Amethyst Scorpion	^	1

It was a view that Amethyst had talked about before, I believe? And their immediate counter onto Amethyst didn't seem partnered to me.

Quote

When there's a tie between two people one day and then the next day one of those people gets five votes and the other has none, the elims are more likely on the former. If Turquoise Gorilla was village the elims could have tried to get them exed again, but the main trains today have been Iguana, Flamingo, and Albatross.

I don't see how this would come from a partner when there's three other people they could look at and practically 0 pressure being applied on Gorilla.

I'm going to try to edit my more coherent thoughts into a post later today when I have time.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Emerald Falcon

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Quote

Ostrich came next. Says it make sense with the Octo push, which... I don't see? I'm ignoring my personal read of Meerkat here, but I don't see how the push on Octo supports Meerkat being elim, because both candidates were village. Theoretically, elim!Meerkat would have been fine with either option for the exe last turn. Not sure what to make of this, read-wise.

@Oxblood Beagle, I'll answer your question here - 

It's because I thought elim!Meerkat would like to look like village!Meerkat, and village!Meerkat will be pushing players and would not have been nonchalant between either options. If he was, it'd be suspicious too. Elim!Meerkat would be trying as much as possible to be his village self. 

Anyway, just answering your question here, these thoughts of mine are not so much relevant because I've changed my mind on Meerkat following the Gorilla flip. 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

2 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

And Scorpion's vote here looks really really good, there's no reason you bus a teammate when two villager are right there with 4 votes.

From last cycle, Swan was the first vote and Flamingo was the second on Gorilla (still confused about this because from D1 EoD, Flamingo - Gorilla team makes sense but Flamingo voted on them fairly early last cycle, so bus? or was 2nd vote deemed not to dangerous to back off later and then votes just piled up?). Feel like I'm a bit confident to start weaning off Meerkat paranoia with that 3rd vote on Gorilla. Between the second and third vote on Gorilla, there was second vote on Beagle [from Falcon] and a second vote and third vote on Falcon [by Chameleon and Rhino] so these can be marked for attempting to start a counter-wagon.

We never found out who removed a vote from Gorilla D1 but it doesn't look like they tried to save Gorilla this time. If that D1 manipulation was an elim teammate, the lack of a repeat means they were around at the end to see it was futile, wanted to bus Gorilla, or hit a Smoked player. A limited effort to save Gorilla makes Axolotl, Chameleon, and Falcon's late attempts to disrupt the votes interesting. Chameleon wanted people to pile on Gorilla or Falcon, preferably the latter, while Axolotl wants to divert votes to Chameleon. Unlikely to be on the same elim team perhaps. Falcon knows Gorilla is going to die when questioning my vote, which would be a bold move if they were evil together.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Gg village gang
I accidentally fell asleep around 3 hours before rollover, but I did review Oxblood’s posts before that and decided they were still a little sus. Knew my vote was useless there though. 

edit:

Village: Zebra, Swan, Meerkat, Alb, Scorp(?), Heron

Leaning elim: Cham, Vulture, Melon

Elim: Hyena, Beagle, Rhino(?)

Look closer at: Flamingo, Falcon

5 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Emerald Falcon was the other exe candidate. If Gorilla was indeed a bus, it would have to be E/E here. That's still a possibility though, and would highly complicate the preceding analysis. I think all the people voting on Falcon (Vulture, Chameleon, Rhinoceros, and Beagle), are much better kill candidates than him though. If one of them flips Evil, that's practically a guarantee we had a V/E scenario on our hands.

I too was pondering over the possibility of an e/e exe between Gorilla and Falcon. Given the lack of an expected Soothe in Gorilla's defence, this might be a plausible scenario.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Chartreuse Penguin

[Salmon Meerkat]

Can't look at the data unfortunately as a work situation came up. I expect to be tied down through the end of the week, as largely a warm body who will be present to vote but with little bandwidth for analysis. 

I trust you guys. You can do this. I'll be back when I can, maybe post some pre-written RP. 

Edited to add:

Only one Elim down so let's not get complacent but let's break that curse! 

Edited January 12, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Okay so scratch everything I've said earlier about Scorpion because I've been thinking about something + something in Vulture's recent long-post caught my eye - 

N1

228

Amethyst Scorpion

Included thread summary as the reasoning. Asks Saffron Iguana whether they think all three in the lynch were villagers, in which case the spiked needn't care, or whether Amethyst Scorpion was an elim trying to bus a teammate for villager points

N/A

N/A

Third option - knew Turquoise Gorilla soothed, was creating future distancing? Could also be genuine

Paranoia mild evil

Engaging with Saffron iguana

Okay so hold that there while I get back to it - 

D3:

9 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Turquoise Gorilla (9): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat
Emerald Falcon (2): Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros

There is evidence off minimum 1 Riot. 

D2:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (5): Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat
Scarlet Octopus (4): Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Oxblood Beagle, Saffron Iguana

Note that this particular Soothe is Iguana's and hence, the Riot seen in D3 is not seen here.

D1:

Quote

Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl

To the naked eye, it looks like 2 Soothe, one of which is accounted for [Iguana]. BUT, if we look at the pattern here - 

D3 - Elim involved in vote, Rioter involved in manipulation
D2 - V/V vote, no involvement from the Rioter
D1 - Elim involved in vote, ???

My theory is that the vote missing is not a simple Soothe from Gorilla but a Rioter shifting a vote from Gorilla onto Crocodile.

The point is, as Vulture says, e!Scorpion would know that a vote would be moving and that they'd be relatively safe to vote on Gorilla, and if something unsafe does happen, they'd have the entire trust of the village. 

It definitely wasn't a reactive vote manipulation from the elims - Scorp's vote was 2 minutes before rollover, so they did not react to this vote, rather, they had already manipulated the vote at this point -  with Swan, Ocho or Axl's vote as the shift target.

Point about Scorpion's vote on Gorilla in D2 but there like literally zero pressure on Gorilla at that point, so because of all this I'll not even be soft-clearing Scorpion after all.

This also has other implications - meaning one of the players on the Crocodile train is the Rioter... it's not me or Iguana, which leaves us Flamingo or Falcon - leaning towards Falcon here because in the last cycle, the Riot shift was TOWARDS Gorilla, rather than an attempt to save Gorilla by shifting it in the opposite direction i.e. shifting from Gorilla TOWARDS Falcon, which makes me believe that last cycle was indeed E/E with Falcon having the more important role i.e. Rioter. 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

MMM

mindmeld moment

[Charcoal Hyena]

Consider me officially throwing every thought and feeling I've had about this game right out the window. It's abundantly clear that I've been dangerously off track. Regret on its own is unhelpful, however, thus I'm left with a single option to maintain my sanity: starting over. It's certainly better than beating myself up as I have since waking up to this flip.

For those of you who may feel obliged to link my alignment to Turq, I advise reconsideration. I was by far their greatest defender. I attempted to keep their spirits up and call them to action when I felt like they were becoming dejected by the number of people speaking out against them. I gave them the benefit of the doubt and in turn cast doubt on others because I felt someone had to, and saw no one else extending that courtesy. I went to great lengths searching for alternatives 2 hours before EoD because I was unhappy with the people in danger and did not want to see another villager die. All of these are facts you can find by reviewing my profile, though you're free to take my expressed reasoning with a pinch of salt, as any good villager should. Yet even now, I stand by my conviction that many of the votes on Turq were just too easy.

Unlike Mint, I strongly believe it's unwise to clear slots that voted Turq simply because they secured an elim's death. Turq stopped posting long before they were in the lead, and yet they were online eight hours ago. Turq has previously been saved by vote manipulation, and yet two vote manipulators solidified their death (with Soother!Saffron dead, it's very likely the same player who saved Turq D1 helped kill them D3). Turq was suspected by many people and made no effort to change that, which just about guaranteed their eventual death. And as we now know, Turq was roleless. The situation was ripe for a bus. So much so that I expect multiple elims would cut their losses and join the wagon in a way that would make them look the most good after the flip. Likely Turq stopped posting intentionally to prevent giving us more to analyze for connections.

10 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

1. Coral Swan's been on the Gorilla train since Day 1. Highly unlikely they're evil at this point.
2. Onyx Flamingo really got the ball rolling, so I highly doubt they're evil.
3. Salmon Meerkat is crazy, but he was definitely on the right track with this push, so I'm willing to trust him.
4. Fuschia Ostrich's tone is a bit odd, but he does break the tie to make the vote point to an elim, which has to be worth something. Most likely a Villager.
5. Quartz Zebra is drunk. However, he does further the train, whereas elim Zebra could tie it back up. Given the lack of effort in his posts, I think he's village.
6. Magenta Albatross's vote is extremely non-committal. It's purely to cement a train in, rather than any actual suspicion. Normally, I would say this might be the start of a bus. However, Gorilla voted for Albatross earlier on in the Day, which calls that read into question. Pinging people after you make an unpopular push reads very elim in hindsight, so I think Gorilla's vote was genuine, and not a distancing tactic. Overall, Albatross is Village, I guess, but it's an awkward read for me.
7. Amethyst Scorpion flips from Onyx Flamingo to Gorilla. Outstanding move. In addition, they voted on Gorilla Day 1. Definitely Village.
8. Emerald Falcon was the other exe candidate. If Gorilla was indeed a bus, it would have to be E/E here. That's still a possibility though, and would highly complicate the preceding analysis. I think all the people voting on Falcon (Vulture, Chameleon, Rhinoceros, and Beagle), are much better kill candidates than him though. If one of them flips Evil, that's practically a guarantee we had a V/E scenario on our hands.

1. Coral Swan's been on Gorilla since D1 and was the first to vote them D3. IMO undeniably village.
2. Onyx Flamingo adds 2nd vote after Turquoise's final post of the turn. IMO village, but more for our interactions late in the game. Bus unlikely to have been doubled down on at this point.
3. Salmon Meerkat adds 3rd vote with big post for PM-related TMI and general weirdness. The best case against Turq so far, and most likely the turning point in the elim doc.
4. Fuschia Ostrich adds 4th vote an hour later; mentions theory of Flamingo-Gorilla team from D2 that now appears disproven; wants to contribute to vote and says they likely won't be on before rollover. ALARM BELLS RINGING. Elim parking vote on bus and removing themselves from the discussion?
5. Quartz Zebra adds 5th vote after 4 hours of radio silence; no thoughts, only RP. Still pretty dang happy with my vote here. Plenty of time has passed for elims to coordinate the bus and Emerald exe was still close. Allows player to be easily be written off. Spike with power role avoiding scrutiny?
6. Magenta Albatross adds 6th 6 hours later (2 before EoD); "everyone's reasons seem sound" (non-commital language), "I don't see anyone else likely to be exed" (Emerald is only 2 votes behind + at the same time I'm scrambling in thread searching for alternatives). Slot requires further scrutiny; too many weird interactions with Turq in the past to ignore.
7. Amethyst Scorpion adds 7th vote very close to EoD. The most villagery post-Salmon vote I've seen (previously voted Onyx before, apparently to see how people react). Logic is sound not only here but in every post I read from them. One of my top v!reads.
8. Emerald Falcon adds 8th vote at the very last minute. Just under Amethyst in villageryness, though I'm also biased since I'm already reading them as village.

Conclusion: at least one elim between Fuschia, Quartz, and Magenta. Potentially two. Would applaud their boldness if it's all three. Amethyst deserves a nomination for the next Mafia Championship if they're a deep wolf. Probably even if they're village.

 

This post was hard enough to motivate myself to do. I'd like to look at the Emerald voters too since I'm fairly confident of Em's alignment, but I've already pushed my limits with this.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena
changed a "their" in last sentence to "Em's" for clarification

[Fifth Scholar]

A note on this, since there has been confusion in PMs: A Rioter may still move a vote even if they themselves have not voted. They simply cannot move the vote of a target who has not voted (since there is no vote to move). Enjoy your Night, don't die, etc.  

[Coral Swan]

Su boldly stepped up onto a wooden box in the middle of town, wishing he had shoes for the splinters it gave but grateful to the Ja anyway for gifting this moment to preach. In a moment of epiphany, a realization granted by the great and powerful Ja, Su had realized that the people of Tyrian Falls may listen now that Su had been a loud voice in ridding the town of the Spiked Game Show host. With their trust, perhaps he could save them all.

"Here ye, here ye, Tyrian Falls! Praise the Ja!" he began. His voice echoed through the town, bouncing off the buildings back at him. He ignored the emptiness of the courtyard, though it made preaching more difficult. He'd prefer to have an investigator to bounce off of.

"You have been blessed this day with the death of a Spiked!" Su continued. "Praise the Ja! For the Ja has allowed this miraculous event, guiding me in my actions! Praise the Ja! You, too, can come to the truth of the Ja, praise the Ja!"

He paused for a moment, waiting to see if anyone would approach. No one came. Su sighed.

"Under the Ja's guidance, Tyrian Falls can be redeemed, praise the Ja! The Spiked plague can end! Praise the Ja!"

With every word his hand motions grew more exuberant and his voice raised. Su's voice rarely tired; he had much practice with preaching to the people- a mark of a true Jaist. Those who were less faithful grew tired after twenty to thirty minutes, but not Su. He could shout praises for hours.

With a bang, a door was thrown open and a grizzled man stepped out onto his porch, bleary eyed and angry. "Rusts!" he yelled. "Will you shut your mouth? I'm tryin' to sleep!" the man wasn't one Su had seen before, meaning he had chosen to stay out of the discussion.

Su stopped, and looked up at the sky. Dark, inky blackness of night and cloud cover. Perhaps he should have waited until morning. Su hated to prolong the spreading of Ja's words, but he understood that the Ja knew that sleeping, or woken up, people were less prone to receive the truth. Best to cut this sermon short.

But before stepping off his box, Su uttered a closing statement, spoken as loud as he could muster.

"Praise the Ja!"

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

46 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

For those of you who may feel obliged to link my alignment to Turq, I advise reconsideration.

I would be willing to give you some benefit of the doubt if it was only the events of last cycle but you have been setting this up since D2 with the ISOs setting up to show Iguana more suspicious than Gorilla. Particularly agree with Vulture who better explains the ISO on Gorilla here - 

D2

332

Charcoal Hyena

ISO of Turquoise Gorilla. Thinks distribution speculation NAI. Doesn't know what to think about PM based reasoning. Leaning elim based on timing of Turquoise vote, posts updated vote count 2 hrs before rollover, unconcerned about leading lynch. Suspects soother. Doesn't see desire to solve game. Gut paranoid villager based on vote manipulation post. Overall confused

N/A

N/A

Overall fairly inconclusive read - return to it if Gorilla flips, as feels like deliberately inconclusive.

Contingent on Gorilla flip

Equivocates on Turquoise Gorilla

Feels deliberately inconclusive - exactly.

26 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Fuschia Ostrich adds 4th vote an hour later; mentions theory of Flamingo-Gorilla team from D2 that now appears disproven; wants to contribute to vote and says they likely won't be on before rollover. ALARM BELLS RINGING. Elim parking vote on bus and removing themselves from the discussion?

Rollover timing is uncomfortable for me, with me being unavailable for the last 8 - 12 hours of the cycle depending on irl stuff. I haven't been in discussion at any EoCs, and all my final votes were around the same time [or earlier] as my Gorilla vote with the knowledge that they won't likely change. Try again.

Also, the progression from - you piggybacking and using my suspicion on Onyx to make your own case opposite to Gorilla last cycle - to 'ALARM BELLS RINGING' because I'm voting accordingly to my time zone, especially when it was 3-3 and I voted opposite to Falcon, whom you are strongly trusting - doesn't track at all, the 180 is very weird to say the least. 

[Quartz Zebra]

11 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Quartz Zebra is drunk.

"thattttiam undeed. finaly. knot neerly drunck inough though. careta.... *burp*  ta buy mea drink?"

*sip*

"plarasiae thereredcds jasjzajhjaza"

3 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

"Praise the Ja!"

"mmhmmmmmmm wat e' said"

Edited January 12, 2022 by Quartz Zebra

[Charcoal Hyena]

4 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I would be willing to give you some benefit of the doubt if it was only the events of last cycle but you have been setting this up since D2 with the ISOs setting up to show Iguana more suspicious than Gorilla. Particularly agree with Vulture who better explains the ISO on Gorilla here - 

D2

332

Charcoal Hyena

ISO of Turquoise Gorilla. Thinks distribution speculation NAI. Doesn't know what to think about PM based reasoning. Leaning elim based on timing of Turquoise vote, posts updated vote count 2 hrs before rollover, unconcerned about leading lynch. Suspects soother. Doesn't see desire to solve game. Gut paranoid villager based on vote manipulation post. Overall confused

N/A

N/A

Overall fairly inconclusive read - return to it if Gorilla flips, as feels like deliberately inconclusive.

Contingent on Gorilla flip

Equivocates on Turquoise Gorilla

Feels deliberately inconclusive - exactly.

Rollover timing is uncomfortable for me, with me being unavailable for the last 8 - 12 hours of the cycle depending on irl stuff. I haven't been in discussion at any EoCs, and all my final votes were around the same time [or earlier] as my Gorilla vote with the knowledge that they won't likely change. Try again.

Also, the progression from - you piggybacking and using my suspicion on Onyx to make your own case opposite to Gorilla last cycle - to 'ALARM BELLS RINGING' because I'm voting accordingly to my time zone, especially when it was 3-3 and I voted opposite to Falcon, whom you are strongly trusting - doesn't track at all, the 180 is very weird to say the least. 

Please allow me a moment to figure out where you're coming from.

1. You believe I should have had a conclusive opinion on Turquoise based on their D1 content alone
2. You believe that I deliberately made Saffron look worse via ISO on N1 in order to prolong the death of a roleless Spiked
3. You believe that I did not realize how bad this would make me look if/when Turquoise ever flipped
4. You believe I continued to search for alternative executions at D3 EoD when Turquoise was in the lead instead of busing them myself or going for one of the counter wagons

Are these assumptions correct?

 

[Amber Vulture]

A quick look at vote manipulation over the last three cycles:

D1:

Vote Count
Mauve Crocodile (4): <4> Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): <4> Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): <4> Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl
Charcoal Hyena (2): <2> Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat
Amethyst Scorpion (1): <1> Charcoal Hyena
Coral Swan (1): <1> Oxblood Beagle
Violet Axolotl (1): <1> Mint Heron

We know one vote on Saffron Iguana ought to disappear, by virtue of their being soothed, leaving one unknown vote removal.

I think we can all agree that it is a safe assumption that this vote removal on Turquoise Gorilla is eliminator in nature.

Options:

1) A vote on Turquoise Gorilla was soothed

2) A vote on Turquoise Gorilla was rioted to no vote, with the rioter smoked

3) A voter on Turquoise Gorilla rioted the same vote that was soothed (presumably intending to move a vote from Saffron Iguana to Mauve Crocodile). 

4) A vote on Turquoise Gorilla was rioted to no vote, and the rioter was either soothed themselves, or didn't vote.

Our list of non voters is as follows:

Amber Vulture

Azure Mouse

Ivory Dragonfly

Melon Dingo

Opal Lion

Plum Rhinoceros

Quartz Zebra

Sapphire Elephant

Sunburst Toucan

Of this list, I can rule out Amber Vulture, Opal Lion, and Sunburst Toucan being the rioter, leaving us with:

Azure Mouse

Ivory Dragonfly

Melon Dingo

Plum Rhinoceros

Quartz Zebra

Sapphire Elephant

D2:

Vote Count:
Saffron Iguana (5): <4> Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat
Scarlet Octopus (4): Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Oxblood Beagle, Saffron Iguana
Onyx Flamingo (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Mint Heron
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Turquoise Gorilla
Magenta Albatross (1): Amber Vulture
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Amethyst Scorpion

The only visible vote manipulation is the removal of a vote on Saffron Iguana. 

D3:

Vote Count
Turquoise Gorilla (9): <8> Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat
Emerald Falcon (2): <4> Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros
Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle (1): Chartreuse Penguin
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Quartz Zebra (1): Charcoal Hyena

We know we have one vote missing on Turquoise Gorilla, and two missing on Emerald Falcon.

I am in the privileged position of knowing that a player voting on Turquoise Gorilla rioted Plum Rhinoceros onto Turquoise Gorilla. As such, we would expect the vote count to look as follows:

Turquoise Gorilla (8): <8> Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat
Emerald Falcon (3): <4> Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros
Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle (1): Chartreuse Penguin
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Quartz Zebra (1): Charcoal Hyena

As such, there must have been a rioter moving a vote onto Turquoise Gorilla, as we have (unlike D1) an additional vote to account for. We must further explain the additional vote missing on Emerald Falcon.

Where did the additional vote come from? As per the rules clarifications, you cannot riot a no-vote to a vote. Given this, the vote must have been removed from amongst the votes on Emerald Falcon. Plum Rhinoceros was already rioted onto Turquoise Gorilla, so one of Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, and Pearl Chameleon must have been moved.

However, moving a vote from Emerald Falcon onto Turquoise Gorilla, along with the already moved vote of Plum Rhinoceros, satisfies our missing votes, fully explaining the vote changes. Unexplained still is what happened to the vote of the rioter. If the rioter was a player voting on e.g. Emerald Falcon, we would see a vote count of 9-1, not 9-2.

As such, we have either 1) The rioter did not vote, or 2) the rioter was smoked, and so could move a vote without their own disappearing.

Let's look at both these options:

1) A rioter not voting but moving a vote.

Let us consider the non-voters:

Azure Mouse
Ivory Dragonfly
Melon Dingo
Sapphire Elephant
Turquoise Gorilla

Of these, we can obviously rule out Turquoise Gorilla being the rioter, leaving us with:

Azure Mouse
Ivory Dragonfly
Melon Dingo
Sapphire Elephant

None of these players voted D1 either, and all are minimally active.

It is possible that any of these players could be responsible for our riot, but we are then committed to a player both not being active enough to vote, but also being active enough to move a vote in two rounds, first from an eliminator, and second from Emerald Falcon onto the very same player they removed a vote from in D1. If that is the case, I think it confirms our inactive rioter is an eliminator, as I can't see a village explanation for that behaviour, but more generally I think that overall it seems highly unlikely.

The other option is that the rioter was smoked, and moved a vote from Emerald Falcon onto Turquoise Gorilla. I cannot see a world in which a village rioter coordinated with a village smoker on D1, and frankly think it highly unlikely that that would be happening on D3 as well (and if it happened on D3 but not D1, we are dealing with two different rioters, both hiding the vote removal through different means - I think highly unlikely on balance). As such, I think we can conclude further that the rioter is an eliminator in this scenario as well. 

However, I think the smoked rioter can (in theory) be any player other than Salmon Meerkat (confirmed tineye), Magenta Albatross (assuming they are a thug), and Plum Rhinoceros, whose vote was moved.

The question becomes why would an eliminator rioter want to move a vote from Emerald Falcon to Turquoise Gorilla?

In a PM, to Salmon Meerkat, Charcoal Hyena claimed Emerald Falcon had been scanned as villager (a claim they make in a slightly more oblique way in thread), and Emerald Falcon confirmed in that PM that Charcoal Hyena had his role right - surely they would want to move a vote the other way, to increase the chance of lynching a supposedly cleared player?

This, I think, is strong evidence for my theory of elim!Falcon, and therefore elim!Hyena - Falcon flipping eliminator brings down Hyena as well, and therefore is a greater loss to their team.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

2 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Please allow me a moment to figure out where you're coming from.

1. You believe I should have had a conclusive opinion on Turquoise based on their D1 content alone
2. You believe that I deliberately made Saffron look worse via ISO on N1 in order to prolong the death of a roleless Spiked
3. You believe that I did not realize how bad this would make me look if/when Turquoise ever flipped
4. You believe I continued to search for alternative executions at D3 EoD when Turquoise was in the lead instead of busing them myself or going for one of the counter wagons

Are these assumptions correct?

Why are you asking for affirmation? Will your reply alter based on my confirmation?

To answer you - 

1. No of course not. But the point was not that your opinion on Turquoise was simply inconclusive. It was that it was deliberately inconclusive. 
2. No, rather you simply made sure we'd focus more on Saffron rather than on Gorilla, then hope the heat on Gorilla would dissipate out.
3. Which is why you fought tooth and nail to prevent Turquoise from flipping at all 
4. Yes, correct. 100% I believe you're the kind of player who is very diverse - one day you bus, another day you'll staunchly defend your teammate and then say "would I strongly defend my teammate this way, would I not bus?"