Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: I am in the privileged position of knowing that a player voting on Turquoise Gorilla rioted Plum Rhinoceros onto Turquoise Gorilla. As such, we would expect the vote count to look as follows: Turquoise Gorilla (8): <8> Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat Emerald Falcon (3): <4> Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Mint Heron Oxblood Beagle (1): Chartreuse Penguin Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl Quartz Zebra (1): Charcoal Hyena Shouldn’t the riot make it so that there’s now 9 votes on Gorilla?
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Chartreuse Penguin said: Shouldn’t the riot make it so that there’s now 9 votes on Gorilla? Self-vote cancel subtracts the Rioted vote added.
Amber Vulture Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Chartreuse Penguin said: Shouldn’t the riot make it so that there’s now 9 votes on Gorilla? The riot from a player already voting on Turquoise Gorilla takes a vote from Emerald Falcon, dropping them from four to three, but is net neutral on Turquoise Gorilla, as the rioter's vote is cancelled by the riot. It is the absence of a vote being lost from the second riot that allows us to draw the conclusions about the non-voting/smoked rioter.
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 waaaaaait so lemme get this right hyena evil falcon evil ????
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Fuchsia Ostrich said: Why are you asking for affirmation? Will your reply alter based on my confirmation? Nope. My intention is to point out how flawed your accusation is in the first place 3 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said: To answer you - No of course not. But the point was not that your opinion on Turquoise was simply inconclusive. It was that it was deliberately inconclusive. No, rather you simply made sure we'd focus more on Saffron rather than on Gorilla, then hope the heat on Gorilla would dissipate out. Which is why you fought tooth and nail to prevent Turquoise from flipping at all Yes, correct. 100% I believe you're the kind of player who is very diverse - one day you bus, another day you'll staunchly defend your teammate and then say "would I strongly defend my teammate this way, would I not bus?" Can you cite examples of how it was "deliberately" inconclusive? Can you show me where I "made sure" we focused more on Saffron rather than Gorilla? Did I fight "tooth and nail" to prevent Turquoise from flipping? At least you seem honest about this take, terribly sub-optimal elim play notwithstanding.
Amber Vulture Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said: Nope. My intention is to point out how flawed your accusation is in the first place Can you cite examples of how it was "deliberately" inconclusive? Can you show me where I "made sure" we focused more on Saffron rather than Gorilla? Did I fight "tooth and nail" to prevent Turquoise from flipping? At least you seem honest about this take, terribly sub-optimal elim play notwithstanding. The accusation is derived from my own. Without going back and relooking at the post, my recollection is that it felt uncharacteristically toothless of you. That you subsequently ignored the post of Turquoise Gorilla about their suspicion of Albatross making the absurdly illogical claim about village/elim thug equiprobability without challenge, despite posting straight afterwards and being in the mindset of thinking about Turquoise Gorilla added to my suspicion. See posts 332-348 for the sequence here: Spoiler Cycle Post Player Summary Vote Retractions Thoughts AI (perceived) Notable connections D1 8 Turquoise Gorilla RP. Proposes we discuss village to eliminator distribution. N/A N/A Unhelpful formatting. Seeks to spark discussion, well trodden ground for early discussion, of limited value (but not much else of value to discuss) NAI None D1 14 Turquoise Gorilla Non-RP post. Believes 6-7 spiked. Suggests eliminator kill role (coinshot/mistborn) N/A N/A Disagree with spiked assumption, probably NAI. Village slip considering coinshot/mistborn equivalent for spiked? Mild village None D1 42 Charcoal Hyena Provides emotion based reads on players who have posted. Says Coral Swan felt village, disagrees with Saffron Iguana but says feels like they are trying to solve game. Gets new player feel from Magenta Albatross, says feels geniuine. Leans village on Scarlet Octopus, says tunneling both offputting and reassuring. Leans village on Salmon Meerkat due to poke vote on Sunburst Toucan. Neutral on Chartreuse Penguin, wants more engagement. Neutral on Emeraldn Falcon. Very slight village lean on Fuchsia Ostrich due to nonchalance to number of spiked. Neutral on Mauve Crocodile, suggest their retraction from Pearl Chameleon and encouragement for players to vote elsewhere could mean E/E. Neutral on Melon Dingo, Oxblood Beagle, wants more engagement. Says would have done the same thing as Pearl Chameleon for same reason, suggests more thoughts based on their response. Neutral on Turquoise Gorilla. Suggests Amethyst Scorpion might have slipped with firm language about elim team being weaker. Votes on Amethyst Scorpion Amethyst Scorpion N/A Emotion based reads both useful and convenient to back down from. Mild support of Pearl Chameleon not explicit in post. Question why Salmon Meerkat's poke vote felt alignment indicative. Not sure I agree re Amethyst Scorpion slipping - feels slightly contrived. Post an attempt to seem helpful, having opinions, without committing to them? Unsure - reevaluate Summons all inactive players. Comments on all active players. Unprompted support for Pearl Chameleon, lynch candidate. Votes on Amethyst Scorpion D1 49 Turquoise Gorilla Quotes player distribution discussion. Says thinks 25% the sweet spot for eliminator numbers, so 6-7 eliminator team N/A N/A Doesn't engage with vote discussion Very mild elim Quotes team distribution discussion, doesn't engage with posts directly D1 88 Charcoal Hyena Replies to Chartreuse Penguin's vote on them. Claims to have started writing reads post before logging in to see alignment. Says solves game by narrowing pool of suspects down. Says switching reads a good thing for determining alignment. Says initially read Pearl Chameleon as village for first post, but reaction to pressure needs looking at. Says village read of Magenta not just because they give new player vibes, but village new player vibes N/A N/A Reminds me of a very dangerous player… Call out writing part of post before logging in. Odd behaviour - although not necessarily alignment indicative, merely player being prepared to be an eliminator. Willingness to admit it perhaps reduces likelihood of this. Explanation of how they solve game NAI. Gut read that genuinely trying to solve game. Watch carefully. Timezone aligns with dangerous player. Reevaluate frequently, gut village Replies to Chartreuse Penguin, Safrron Iguana. Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Mauve Crocodile, Amethyst Scorpion D1 95 Charcoal Hyena Thanks Mauve Crocodile for reads list. Says late for them, so will just update the vote count N/A N/A Very late at 5:30am GMT. NAI NAI Appreciates Mauve's read list D1 118 Turquoise Gorilla Notes typo in Pearl Chameleon's post N/A N/A Doesn't engage with vote discussion, even though centred on themselves Unsure None D1 157 Turquoise Gorilla Asks for a vote count N/A N/A Not engaging with thread enough to find last one and work it out. Not trying to solve game? Very mild evil None D1 160 Turquoise Gorilla Votes on Coral Swan. Reads them null, possibly mildly elim, but doesn't see reason for other trains. Says Pearl Chameleon and Mauve Crocodile both seem village in PMs, doesn't see reason for voting on Charcoal Hyena Coral Swan N/A Four hours left in cycle, not strictly necessary to vote on one of those four, given low vote threshold. Feels like wants to lynch someone, doesn't need a good reason to. Mild evil Votes Coral Swan - not on a team with them, as threatens lynch. Defends Pearl Chameleon and Mauve Crocodile. D1 163 Turquoise Gorilla Says their vote on Coral Swan is because it is too late to start a lynch train, and that they are gut reading Coral Swan as mild elim N/A N/A At least consistent with actions. Poor reason for vote, but prepared to vote and be seen to do so on gut Very mild gut evil Explains vote on Coral Swan D1 193 Turquoise Gorilla Provides updated vote count, in which they are leading N/A N/A Relaxed about outcome? Seems slightly nonchalant Mild evil None D1 213 Turquoise Gorilla Doesn't want to see Mauve Crocodile or themselves lynched, so votes for Saffron Iguana, despite null read Saffron Iguana Coral Swan Four minutes to end of cycle, consistent with self preservation. Announces trust of Mauve Crocodile before they get lynched - seeking village cred? NAI, gut mild village Declared wish to keep Mauve Crocodile alive, voted to lynch Saffron Iguana N1 226 Turquoise Gorilla Joking RP post about lynch N/A N/A Surely something more substantial to say? Unsure None N1 235 Charcoal Hyena Apologises for absence, attributes it to illness N/A N/A Hope you get better soon! NAI None N1 237 Charcoal Hyena Quote links broken due to thread merge. Replies to Saffron Iguana re delayed vote on Pearl Chameleon. Says wanted to look further at Pearl Chameleon. Village reads Amethyst Scorpion for thinkign about E/E pairings. Began making reads list before finding alignment because over eager. Has read Amber Vulture's megapost N/A N/A Not sure I agree with assessment of Amethyst Scorpion's logic - ignores V/E combinations of Pearl Chamerleon, Coral Swan and Turquoise Gorilla. Question whether they have looked further at Pearl Chameleon Unsure Village reads Amethyst Scoprion N1 239 Charcoal Hyena Says made point about starting list pre-PM because Chartreuse Penguin had voted on him for the early reads list, so was trying to make point that for him NAI as started before knowing alignment. N/A N/A Possible, answers Chartreuse's point Unsure Reply to Salmon Meerkat N1 241 Charcoal Hyena Put more weight on readslist than development of it as can address reads list, development only seen over time. N/A N/A Feels fairly defensive, but under scrutiny. Unsure Reply to Salmon Meerkat N1 251 Charcoal Hyena Replies to Chartreuse Penguin. Doesn't think thery have been hedgy. Feels positive about Chartreuse Penguin as thinks they feel paranoid not nitpicky. Asks for thoughts on rest of execution options. N/A N/A Why would an eliminator push such a lynch cycle 1? Feels like an odd village read of Chartreuse Penguin Very mild evil Positive feeling about Chartreuse Penguin N1 259 Turquoise Gorilla Lacking motivation to post. Thinks manipulation all eliminators. Thinks as borne suspicion that eliminators had a motive to keep both Saffron Iguana and them alive N/A N/A Preparing excuse for manipulation after elim soother flip? Very mild evil None N1 262 Turquoise Gorilla Asks Emerald Falcon what they mean N/A N/A NAI NAI None N1 264 Charcoal Hyena Iso of Saffron Iguana. Asks voters on Saffron Iguana to claim if a rioter, to rule out elim soother interference. In summary, early on thinks Saffron Iguana trying to solve game, thinks absence of voting suspicious. Is suspicious of end of cycle interactions re Turquoise Gorilla N/A N/A Read overall thoughtful, certainly agreed at the time with suspicion of Saffron Iguana. Strongly dislike calling for rioters to claim - if village then immediate eliminator targets. Doesn't consider Saffron Iguana being a soother an option Unsure ISO Saffron Iguana, elim read D2 319 Charcoal Hyena Lost progress on ISO of Gorilla to refresh. Thinks Albatross' thug claim welcome. Wary of e!coinshot, as thinks v!coinshot might not have shot N1. Will ISO Albatross to see if reason for shot. If e!coinshot, wary of those looking at survival, not yesterday's wagons N/A N/A Check whether ISOs of Magenta and Turquoise emerge. Think overstates elim coinshot potential. Gut mild evil Thinking about Albatross survival, raises WGG (calls it unlikely) D2 332 Charcoal Hyena ISO of Turquoise Gorilla. Thinks distribution speculation NAI. Doesn't know what to think about PM based reasoning. Leaning elim based on timing of Turquoise vote, posts updated vote count 2 hrs before rollover, unconcerned about leading lynch. Suspects soother. Doesn't see desire to solve game. Gut paranoid villager based on vote manipulation post. Overall confused N/A N/A Overall fairly inconclusive read - return to it if Gorilla flips, as feels like deliberately inconclusive. Contingent on Gorilla flip Equivocates on Turquoise Gorilla D2 335 Charcoal Hyena Disagrees with Coral Swan that one coinshot kill means it is from a villager. Asks why they think a v!coinshot would target Albatross, and ignore counterwagons. Thinks Coral Swan shouldn't dicsount e! coinshot, even if it needs heavy balancing N/A N/A Fair question re Magenta being targeted. Not sure it's wrong to discount e!coinshot - situation feels extremely unlikely to me NAI None D2 337 Turquoise Gorilla Would have voted for Albatross, as thinks survival more likely if an eliminator. Could be villlaghe thug, or elim thug, but if lurched then more likely elim. Equally likely v!thug and e!thug, but lurched more likely elim so votes on Magenta Albatross Magenta Albatross N/A Very poor logic. More likely village than elim, being thug equally likely, so still more likely village than elim. Moderate evil Votes on Magenta Albatross D2 338 Charcoal Hyena Thinsk a village vigilante should never shoot unless for a lot of information, or out of high confidence in killing an eliminator. Thinks early mislynches and elim kills reduce player numbers too quickly regardless. Doesn't want to rule out elim coinshot as longer neglected, the more time there is for them to outnumber us N/A N/A Points made about impact of village coinshot apply to balance of elim coinshot, too. Discussion not focused on players/alignment - NAI NAI None D2 340 Turquoise Gorilla Put weird explanatory stuff in the post because people attacking them for lack of analysis. Voted on Magenta Albatross because they think it's more likely they survived if they're an eliminator N/A N/A Even if one more scenario where they survive if an eliminator, much more likely to be villager in first place - not properly updating beliefs Elim None D2 342 Charcoal Hyena Provides vote count N/A N/A NAI (cynically, not engaging with what I see as pretty extreme logical breakdown ~5 posts above) NAI None D2 345 Turquoise Gorilla Says they don't have motivation to make thought out reads, so thinks someone is suspicious, and builds other suspicions around that N/A N/A Feels like rationalisation Mild evil None D2 348 Turquoise Gorilla RP post N/A N/A Not engaging NAI None On top of this, we have: 1) Last cycle; 2) The mentions of an elim soother throughout consideration of the D1 lynch, which my paranoia says is trying to dissuade people considering the rioter/smoker combination I believe I've shown; 3) Trying to bait out a village rioter claim in #264; 4) You having made a claim about Emerald Falcon, and the spiked rioter activity last cycle seeking to avoid an Emerald Falcon flip. I think the sum of all of this is enough to make me believe you to be more likely spiked than not. We can talk about specifics, but I think debate of the sort you're trying to engage Ostrich in ignores that looking at the totality of a post (in this case your ISO), and what it achieves, is a fair way to come to a conclusion.
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Amber Vulture said: The accusation is derived from my own. Without going back and relooking at the post, my recollection is that it felt uncharacteristically toothless of you. That you subsequently ignored the post of Turquoise Gorilla about their suspicion of Albatross making the absurdly illogical claim about village/elim thug equiprobability without challenge, despite posting straight afterwards and being in the mindset of thinking about Turquoise Gorilla added to my suspicion. See posts 332-348 for the sequence here: Reveal hidden contents Cycle Post Player Summary Vote Retractions Thoughts AI (perceived) Notable connections D1 8 Turquoise Gorilla RP. Proposes we discuss village to eliminator distribution. N/A N/A Unhelpful formatting. Seeks to spark discussion, well trodden ground for early discussion, of limited value (but not much else of value to discuss) NAI None D1 14 Turquoise Gorilla Non-RP post. Believes 6-7 spiked. Suggests eliminator kill role (coinshot/mistborn) N/A N/A Disagree with spiked assumption, probably NAI. Village slip considering coinshot/mistborn equivalent for spiked? Mild village None D1 42 Charcoal Hyena Provides emotion based reads on players who have posted. Says Coral Swan felt village, disagrees with Saffron Iguana but says feels like they are trying to solve game. Gets new player feel from Magenta Albatross, says feels geniuine. Leans village on Scarlet Octopus, says tunneling both offputting and reassuring. Leans village on Salmon Meerkat due to poke vote on Sunburst Toucan. Neutral on Chartreuse Penguin, wants more engagement. Neutral on Emeraldn Falcon. Very slight village lean on Fuchsia Ostrich due to nonchalance to number of spiked. Neutral on Mauve Crocodile, suggest their retraction from Pearl Chameleon and encouragement for players to vote elsewhere could mean E/E. Neutral on Melon Dingo, Oxblood Beagle, wants more engagement. Says would have done the same thing as Pearl Chameleon for same reason, suggests more thoughts based on their response. Neutral on Turquoise Gorilla. Suggests Amethyst Scorpion might have slipped with firm language about elim team being weaker. Votes on Amethyst Scorpion Amethyst Scorpion N/A Emotion based reads both useful and convenient to back down from. Mild support of Pearl Chameleon not explicit in post. Question why Salmon Meerkat's poke vote felt alignment indicative. Not sure I agree re Amethyst Scorpion slipping - feels slightly contrived. Post an attempt to seem helpful, having opinions, without committing to them? Unsure - reevaluate Summons all inactive players. Comments on all active players. Unprompted support for Pearl Chameleon, lynch candidate. Votes on Amethyst Scorpion D1 49 Turquoise Gorilla Quotes player distribution discussion. Says thinks 25% the sweet spot for eliminator numbers, so 6-7 eliminator team N/A N/A Doesn't engage with vote discussion Very mild elim Quotes team distribution discussion, doesn't engage with posts directly D1 88 Charcoal Hyena Replies to Chartreuse Penguin's vote on them. Claims to have started writing reads post before logging in to see alignment. Says solves game by narrowing pool of suspects down. Says switching reads a good thing for determining alignment. Says initially read Pearl Chameleon as village for first post, but reaction to pressure needs looking at. Says village read of Magenta not just because they give new player vibes, but village new player vibes N/A N/A Reminds me of a very dangerous player… Call out writing part of post before logging in. Odd behaviour - although not necessarily alignment indicative, merely player being prepared to be an eliminator. Willingness to admit it perhaps reduces likelihood of this. Explanation of how they solve game NAI. Gut read that genuinely trying to solve game. Watch carefully. Timezone aligns with dangerous player. Reevaluate frequently, gut village Replies to Chartreuse Penguin, Safrron Iguana. Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Mauve Crocodile, Amethyst Scorpion D1 95 Charcoal Hyena Thanks Mauve Crocodile for reads list. Says late for them, so will just update the vote count N/A N/A Very late at 5:30am GMT. NAI NAI Appreciates Mauve's read list D1 118 Turquoise Gorilla Notes typo in Pearl Chameleon's post N/A N/A Doesn't engage with vote discussion, even though centred on themselves Unsure None D1 157 Turquoise Gorilla Asks for a vote count N/A N/A Not engaging with thread enough to find last one and work it out. Not trying to solve game? Very mild evil None D1 160 Turquoise Gorilla Votes on Coral Swan. Reads them null, possibly mildly elim, but doesn't see reason for other trains. Says Pearl Chameleon and Mauve Crocodile both seem village in PMs, doesn't see reason for voting on Charcoal Hyena Coral Swan N/A Four hours left in cycle, not strictly necessary to vote on one of those four, given low vote threshold. Feels like wants to lynch someone, doesn't need a good reason to. Mild evil Votes Coral Swan - not on a team with them, as threatens lynch. Defends Pearl Chameleon and Mauve Crocodile. D1 163 Turquoise Gorilla Says their vote on Coral Swan is because it is too late to start a lynch train, and that they are gut reading Coral Swan as mild elim N/A N/A At least consistent with actions. Poor reason for vote, but prepared to vote and be seen to do so on gut Very mild gut evil Explains vote on Coral Swan D1 193 Turquoise Gorilla Provides updated vote count, in which they are leading N/A N/A Relaxed about outcome? Seems slightly nonchalant Mild evil None D1 213 Turquoise Gorilla Doesn't want to see Mauve Crocodile or themselves lynched, so votes for Saffron Iguana, despite null read Saffron Iguana Coral Swan Four minutes to end of cycle, consistent with self preservation. Announces trust of Mauve Crocodile before they get lynched - seeking village cred? NAI, gut mild village Declared wish to keep Mauve Crocodile alive, voted to lynch Saffron Iguana N1 226 Turquoise Gorilla Joking RP post about lynch N/A N/A Surely something more substantial to say? Unsure None N1 235 Charcoal Hyena Apologises for absence, attributes it to illness N/A N/A Hope you get better soon! NAI None N1 237 Charcoal Hyena Quote links broken due to thread merge. Replies to Saffron Iguana re delayed vote on Pearl Chameleon. Says wanted to look further at Pearl Chameleon. Village reads Amethyst Scorpion for thinkign about E/E pairings. Began making reads list before finding alignment because over eager. Has read Amber Vulture's megapost N/A N/A Not sure I agree with assessment of Amethyst Scorpion's logic - ignores V/E combinations of Pearl Chamerleon, Coral Swan and Turquoise Gorilla. Question whether they have looked further at Pearl Chameleon Unsure Village reads Amethyst Scoprion N1 239 Charcoal Hyena Says made point about starting list pre-PM because Chartreuse Penguin had voted on him for the early reads list, so was trying to make point that for him NAI as started before knowing alignment. N/A N/A Possible, answers Chartreuse's point Unsure Reply to Salmon Meerkat N1 241 Charcoal Hyena Put more weight on readslist than development of it as can address reads list, development only seen over time. N/A N/A Feels fairly defensive, but under scrutiny. Unsure Reply to Salmon Meerkat N1 251 Charcoal Hyena Replies to Chartreuse Penguin. Doesn't think thery have been hedgy. Feels positive about Chartreuse Penguin as thinks they feel paranoid not nitpicky. Asks for thoughts on rest of execution options. N/A N/A Why would an eliminator push such a lynch cycle 1? Feels like an odd village read of Chartreuse Penguin Very mild evil Positive feeling about Chartreuse Penguin N1 259 Turquoise Gorilla Lacking motivation to post. Thinks manipulation all eliminators. Thinks as borne suspicion that eliminators had a motive to keep both Saffron Iguana and them alive N/A N/A Preparing excuse for manipulation after elim soother flip? Very mild evil None N1 262 Turquoise Gorilla Asks Emerald Falcon what they mean N/A N/A NAI NAI None N1 264 Charcoal Hyena Iso of Saffron Iguana. Asks voters on Saffron Iguana to claim if a rioter, to rule out elim soother interference. In summary, early on thinks Saffron Iguana trying to solve game, thinks absence of voting suspicious. Is suspicious of end of cycle interactions re Turquoise Gorilla N/A N/A Read overall thoughtful, certainly agreed at the time with suspicion of Saffron Iguana. Strongly dislike calling for rioters to claim - if village then immediate eliminator targets. Doesn't consider Saffron Iguana being a soother an option Unsure ISO Saffron Iguana, elim read D2 319 Charcoal Hyena Lost progress on ISO of Gorilla to refresh. Thinks Albatross' thug claim welcome. Wary of e!coinshot, as thinks v!coinshot might not have shot N1. Will ISO Albatross to see if reason for shot. If e!coinshot, wary of those looking at survival, not yesterday's wagons N/A N/A Check whether ISOs of Magenta and Turquoise emerge. Think overstates elim coinshot potential. Gut mild evil Thinking about Albatross survival, raises WGG (calls it unlikely) D2 332 Charcoal Hyena ISO of Turquoise Gorilla. Thinks distribution speculation NAI. Doesn't know what to think about PM based reasoning. Leaning elim based on timing of Turquoise vote, posts updated vote count 2 hrs before rollover, unconcerned about leading lynch. Suspects soother. Doesn't see desire to solve game. Gut paranoid villager based on vote manipulation post. Overall confused N/A N/A Overall fairly inconclusive read - return to it if Gorilla flips, as feels like deliberately inconclusive. Contingent on Gorilla flip Equivocates on Turquoise Gorilla D2 335 Charcoal Hyena Disagrees with Coral Swan that one coinshot kill means it is from a villager. Asks why they think a v!coinshot would target Albatross, and ignore counterwagons. Thinks Coral Swan shouldn't dicsount e! coinshot, even if it needs heavy balancing N/A N/A Fair question re Magenta being targeted. Not sure it's wrong to discount e!coinshot - situation feels extremely unlikely to me NAI None D2 337 Turquoise Gorilla Would have voted for Albatross, as thinks survival more likely if an eliminator. Could be villlaghe thug, or elim thug, but if lurched then more likely elim. Equally likely v!thug and e!thug, but lurched more likely elim so votes on Magenta Albatross Magenta Albatross N/A Very poor logic. More likely village than elim, being thug equally likely, so still more likely village than elim. Moderate evil Votes on Magenta Albatross D2 338 Charcoal Hyena Thinsk a village vigilante should never shoot unless for a lot of information, or out of high confidence in killing an eliminator. Thinks early mislynches and elim kills reduce player numbers too quickly regardless. Doesn't want to rule out elim coinshot as longer neglected, the more time there is for them to outnumber us N/A N/A Points made about impact of village coinshot apply to balance of elim coinshot, too. Discussion not focused on players/alignment - NAI NAI None D2 340 Turquoise Gorilla Put weird explanatory stuff in the post because people attacking them for lack of analysis. Voted on Magenta Albatross because they think it's more likely they survived if they're an eliminator N/A N/A Even if one more scenario where they survive if an eliminator, much more likely to be villager in first place - not properly updating beliefs Elim None D2 342 Charcoal Hyena Provides vote count N/A N/A NAI (cynically, not engaging with what I see as pretty extreme logical breakdown ~5 posts above) NAI None D2 345 Turquoise Gorilla Says they don't have motivation to make thought out reads, so thinks someone is suspicious, and builds other suspicions around that N/A N/A Feels like rationalisation Mild evil None D2 348 Turquoise Gorilla RP post N/A N/A Not engaging NAI None On top of this, we have: 1) Last cycle; 2) The mentions of an elim soother throughout consideration of the D1 lynch, which my paranoia says is trying to dissuade people considering the rioter/smoker combination I believe I've shown; 3) Trying to bait out a village rioter claim in #264; 4) You having made a claim about Emerald Falcon, and the spiked rioter activity last cycle seeking to avoid an Emerald Falcon flip. I think the sum of all of this is enough to make me believe you to be more likely spiked than not. We can talk about specifics, but I think debate of the sort you're trying to engage Ostrich in ignores that looking at the totality of a post (in this case your ISO), and what it achieves, is a fair way to come to a conclusion. I'd prefer Fuschia speak for himself, thank you I'll get to my problems with you later, but I'm trying to solve their slot now
Amber Vulture Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said: I'd prefer Fuschia speak for himself, thank you I'll get to my problems with you later, but I'm trying to solve their slot now You may very well, but as I say above, I do not get a sense from your reply to Fuchsia that you were engaging with the substance of their point. As their point happens to be my point, I wanted to make that explicit. I look forward to your responses to what I've raised, and particularly to your thoughts on why a spiked rioter would seek to keep Emerald Falcon alive.
Emerald Falcon Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: This, I think, is strong evidence for my theory of elim!Falcon, and therefore elim!Hyena - Falcon flipping eliminator brings down Hyena as well, and therefore is a greater loss to their team. Your whole post is about where a potential rioter is. that's a little E!AI because he's doing the bulk of the work in something that isn't solving alignments. You reached out D1 to me to supposedly try to see where I'm coming from, but after my inital reply you don't respond to me or try to follow up? My only thing here is the perhaps passion i get from Amber answering Hyena's question to Fuschia. EDIT: Okay? Meerkat just used the phrase "It's my word against yours, anyways" In a PM with me which is equal parts offensive and ...something else that I haven't decided yet. Edited January 12, 2022 by Emerald Falcon
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: Okay? Meerkat just used the phrase "It's my word against yours, anyways" In a PM with me which is equal parts offensive and ...something else that I haven't decided yet. Some context please?
Amber Vulture Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Emerald Falcon said: Your whole post is about where a potential rioter is. that's a little E!AI because he's doing the bulk of the work in something that isn't solving alignments. You reached out D1 to me to supposedly try to see where I'm coming from, but after my inital reply you don't respond to me or try to follow up? My only thing here is the perhaps passion i get from Amber answering Hyena's question to Fuschia. The post is to find a potential rioter, yes. I disagree that it doesn't solve alignments, however - it tells us (and I'd welcome challenge to the logic used) that the rioter is both seeking to hide their identity and has been coordinated enough to do so since D1, and further identifies that the rioter sought to save you over Turquoise Gorilla. I think, particularly in the context of Hyena's claim about you, that such an analysis makes a strong claim about alignments. If you disagree with anything about how I worked through the vote manipulation logic I'll happily rethink it through. I think calling the post eliminator alignment indicative because it doesn't solve alignments feels like you're ignoring the substance of the post itself. On D1 I reached out to you to ask about why you claimed PMs existed with Crocodile and Swan. You replied that you wanted to see what they'd do, and asked why I asked in a PM. I replied that I had thought it might be some sort of gambit you'd prefer not to talk about in thread, and you in turn replied you'd talk openly about anything you choose to do in thread if asked. I then moved on to the next post in my analysis, and didn't have a further question for you.
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Amber Vulture said: I am in the privileged position of knowing that a player voting on Turquoise Gorilla rioted Plum Rhinoceros onto Turquoise Gorilla. As such, we would expect the vote count to look as follows: As such, there must have been a rioter moving a vote onto Turquoise Gorilla, as we have (unlike D1) an additional vote to account for. We must further explain the additional vote missing on Emerald Falcon. Where did the additional vote come from? As per the rules clarifications, you cannot riot a no-vote to a vote. Given this, the vote must have been removed from amongst the votes on Emerald Falcon. Plum Rhinoceros was already rioted onto Turquoise Gorilla, so one of Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, and Pearl Chameleon must have been moved. However, moving a vote from Emerald Falcon onto Turquoise Gorilla, along with the already moved vote of Plum Rhinoceros, satisfies our missing votes, fully explaining the vote changes. Unexplained still is what happened to the vote of the rioter. If the rioter was a player voting on e.g. Emerald Falcon, we would see a vote count of 9-1, not 9-2. As such, we have either 1) The rioter did not vote, or 2) the rioter was smoked, and so could move a vote without their own disappearing. Let's look at both these options: 1) A rioter not voting but moving a vote. Let us consider the non-voters: Azure Mouse Ivory Dragonfly Melon Dingo Sapphire Elephant None of these players voted D1 either, and all are minimally active. It is possible that any of these players could be responsible for our riot, but we are then committed to a player both not being active enough to vote, but also being active enough to move a vote in two rounds, first from an eliminator, and second from Emerald Falcon onto the very same player they removed a vote from in D1. If that is the case, I think it confirms our inactive rioter is an eliminator, as I can't see a village explanation for that behaviour, but more generally I think that overall it seems highly unlikely. The other option is that the rioter was smoked, and moved a vote from Emerald Falcon onto Turquoise Gorilla. I cannot see a world in which a village rioter coordinated with a village smoker on D1, and frankly think it highly unlikely that that would be happening on D3 as well (and if it happened on D3 but not D1, we are dealing with two different rioters, both hiding the vote removal through different means - I think highly unlikely on balance). As such, I think we can conclude further that the rioter is an eliminator in this scenario as well. However, I think the smoked rioter can (in theory) be any player other than Salmon Meerkat (confirmed tineye), Magenta Albatross (assuming they are a thug), and Plum Rhinoceros, whose vote was moved. The question becomes why would an eliminator rioter want to move a vote from Emerald Falcon to Turquoise Gorilla? In a PM, to Salmon Meerkat, Charcoal Hyena claimed Emerald Falcon had been scanned as villager (a claim they make in a slightly more oblique way in thread), and Emerald Falcon confirmed in that PM that Charcoal Hyena had his role right - surely they would want to move a vote the other way, to increase the chance of lynching a supposedly cleared player? This, I think, is strong evidence for my theory of elim!Falcon, and therefore elim!Hyena - Falcon flipping eliminator brings down Hyena as well, and therefore is a greater loss to their team. How would you know that someone voting for Turquoise rioted Plum's vote to Turquoise since it couldn't have been you? Dingo is the most likely of these since they were around to see the votes at the end of D1. It was 4-3-3 Iguana-Crocodile-Gorilla then, making only a 'soothe' risky. D3 though Dingo last posted at Salmon Meerkat (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Emerald Falcon (3): Salmon Meerkat, Amethyst Scorpion, Pearl Chameleon Turquoise Gorilla (2): Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Emerald Falcon, before anyone who ended up on Falcon had voted except Chameleon. Why would the elims have known Falcon had been scanned as villager? The votes + vote manipulation already look like a bus. Unless you're saying Hyena is the Rioter and hence the elim Rioter?
Emerald Falcon Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said: Some context please? Eh, we have a Hyena-Me-Meerkat PM where we were talking, and then after Amber posts this post about his Hyena-Me Theory (which, by the way coinshot, means you should kill hyena first. Just so everyone is on the right page) Meerkat posts walls in the PM about how he's been betrayed and both of us are evil. I comment in a personal PM and then he just says something like "it's my word against yours anyways, wish we were on the same side" 25 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: I then moved on to the next post in my analysis, and didn't have a further question for you. And then yet you post an update on your findings from me and post more about how I confuse you and you don't know why I did those things. That should have been resolved. I either see Amber vulture as a Villager who hasn't been right yet and that's hurting his Ego, when he should have been right about something. He latches onto me as his vote that he stuck through on and calls yesterday E/E because he doesn't want to think he could have been completely wrong. Or Amber is an Elim who didn't manage to keep the lynch off of his teammate, but hey! The village has been killing exclusively counterwagons, so this might work. Especially since Hyena knows I'm a villager it's only a matter of time until Hyena flips and then people see that I'm a villager. What bothers me most about the Villager theory is this: Anyone remember this post? the long wallpost where he ISOs both me and Gorilla, and then proceeds to (despite the more reasoning on gorilla) vote me? If you don't remember it go take a look. He has three big points. The nonchalance on D1 leading up to EoD, their vote and reasoning on Magenta, and their interactions with meerkat. And then we go look at his reasoning for me, which- pretty much just completely revolves around the ISO i did of Mauve. then comments on 1) my view of coral which personally I think was a very villagery moment that shouldn't have been seen as suspicious, and "2) and 3)" which are random things that he even says that he doesn't know how to read. He calls his vote on me more "gut" than not, and then still votes me? Despite me being a "gut" read that he still "doesn't know how to read" ? EDIT: Also Meerkat, I've said enough stuff to you both in our PM and in the PM with Meerkat that should be obvious village. Such as me commenting on my motivation at start of N1, or my stream of consciousness thoughts in the group PM at the beginning of the night here. Or my comments to you about coral in the PM. It's hard to think that people like you and vulture are playing in good faith at all Edited January 12, 2022 by Emerald Falcon
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: How would you know that someone voting for Turquoise rioted Plum's vote to Turquoise since it couldn't have been you? because people like me =) and they trust me =) and they tell me things =) Such as the fact that they, like me, were committed to the Gorilla lynch, and deeply disturbed by what we saw as an attempt to derail the lynch of an Elim or a highly-suspected Elim and onto Flamingo, whom we read as Village on the basis of a tone read, further corroborated by Gorilla's death and flip, and the fact that this helps us make sense of the Ocho kill. Ocho's death was meant to clear one D2 CW, providing a tempting situation where of three end-day CWs, two of them had flipped Village, so the Village could be baited into trying its luck with Flamingo. But that's not where it ends. Suppose, for the moment, you are a team with Gorilla on it. Suppose that Gorilla had already encountered D1 threat, ending up as one of three end-day CWs. What do you do? Well, enter Flamingo. Enter a Villager whose voting patterns looked bad because they could be construed as defending Gorilla, removing lynch pressure from Gorilla by diluting the lead train across Gorilla (3 votes) and Crocodile (3 votes.) Enter a Villager who had become a end D2 CW, and around whom suspicion could be build. There was a lot of pressure towards the end of the cycle, wasn't there? Almost as though an Eliminator had come under threat. And Ocho had flipped Village, and Iguana had flipped Village, so who else could it be? I myself nearly was trapped by this reasoning, and had felt that pressure on Flamingo was reasonable initially. Ocho's death was bait. Because if the Village had been lured into killing Flamingo, and Flamingo were to flip V - what then? I submit the Eliminators would have pushed these subsequent lines of reasoning: 1. We should have a higher credence in the claim that all D1 trains were V/V/V because we have just seen that all D2 trains were V/V/V. Let's not repeat 'lynch the CW.' 2. Since Flamingo was a Villager, Flamingo's vote shift to tie the Mauve-Gorilla trains cannot be seen as suspicious. If it cannot be seen as suspicious, then Gorilla in turn does not merit suspicion. And now we see the point of Ocho's death at last. It was meant to save Gorilla. Fortunately for us, that didn't happen. But that's an aside. The Rioter has claimed their actions and has been generally accountable. I am satisfied with the veracity of their claim. 26 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Why would the elims have known Falcon had been scanned as villager? The votes + vote manipulation already look like a bus. Unless you're saying Hyena is the Rioter and hence the elim Rioter? I feel that's a slightly question-begging frame because the point that Vulture is driving at is simple: P1. There are reasons to think with high confidence that Falcon is Evil. P2. Hyena claimed to be a Mistborn who drew Bronze N1 and scanned Falcon as a Villager. P3. Falcon confirmed that Hyena had scanned her role correctly. Note, first, that the argument (P1) for whether Falcon is or is not Evil is separate from the Mistborn claim. We'll get to that in a bit. (Just see Vulture, it's late for me and I have more work rip.) But here's the thing: P2 and P3 indicate that only two possibilities happened. That is to say, for Falcon to confirm that Hyena scanned her role correctly and for Hyena to have scanned Falcon as a Villager can be true in only two possible worlds: A. Falcon is scanned by Hyena. This says nothing about Hyena's alignment, and regards the Mistborn claim as being prima facie possible. B. Falcon is not scanned by Hyena, because Falcon and Hyena are in cahoots. B in particular implies and entails a Hyena-Falcon connection such that if P1 holds true (again, see separate argument), then Hyena is also Evil. Or to put it in another way: if you ostensibly claim to have scanned a player as a Villager, and if the player flips Evil, it's clear you are a liar, and Evil as well. By asking why the Elims would have known this, you're begging the question against Vulture because you're already assuming the veracity of the scan. Yet the truthfulness of the scan is exactly what is under question here! I felt that there were other circumstances surrounding the scan that didn't seem right: First, I felt that the claim tripped a number of red flags because it was the correct blend of specificity (see, I'm accountable! see, I'm not killing at night!) and involved an unprovable metal, because the escape hatch is simply that Hyena and Falcon are both Evil teammates. In other words, it seemed designed to project the idea that the players involved are trustworthy even when there was little reason to trust on the basis of the specific nature of the claim. Second, I felt that in particular, the Seeker claim is to be regarded always with prima facie caution, because in Tyrian Falls, Seekers are not Confirmed Good. There is an understandable psychological tendency to get carried away with the results of Seeker scans and forget to ask if you have reason to trust the alignment of the ostensible Seeker in the first place. It's a useful claim in these circumstances because it can exonerate teammates, allowing you to pass them off as Village, so long as the ostensible Seeker doesn't die. People fixate on the utility of Seekers, end up functionally relying on them, and forgetting that their alignment hasn't actually been checked yet. Third, I'm sorry to say, but one has many other helpful options if specifically Seeking 'active players' than Falcon. Going for Cham might have helped to resolve the C1 wagon problem. Coral Swan and Mauve Crocodile are two other players which certainly count as prima facie active. The specificity of picking Falcon is in itself somewhat skewed in plausibility - precisely because Falcon had an inactive C1 and only returned into the second half! Thus, the choice can also be suspected to have been gamed by alignment. In general, I believe that combined with the case against Falcon (discouraging the Gorilla push both in thread and PMs, D1 Mauve crocodile voter, and the connection to Hyena who was deeply implicated and invested in two bad lynches, and defending an Elim who later got executed) - the simplest explanation is that both Falcon and Hyena are Evil together. This entails that the scan is false. The question is a misleading one.
Emerald Falcon Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 Is it worth it to try and engage with you, Kat? if so, then: Spoiler Perhaps him scanning me was the right choice, seeing as I was the one who was up yesterday and not Pearl? or seeing my situation here? Regardless of his alignment, you can't argue that him scanning me would supposedly lead to a preferable outcome. When he told me about it, he didn't say anything about "active" but instead grouped me (Albeit pocketing-ly, lol) into a group of [You, Amber, Me], not a somewhat general category of "active people" I don't appreciate being blocked off and practically ignored, especially when I believe you should be able to see that I'm village pretty clearly just through PM actions. Then again, you don't ever think I'm village, or even worth keeping around when I'm not skilled enough at the game. I know the answer is no, I've been in this situation, and I know there's no use trying to engage. Hyena seemed to find it funny when I mentioned during N2 that I'm a PoE player, but here I am even though there's a claimed scan on me that is probably true regardless of Hyena's alignment. But somewhere, if hyena is an Elim, someone's goal is to flip me first, and then call Hyena village off of my village flip. With that I'm taking a break from thread. PM me if you have any questions/comments/concerns, though I don't anticipate getting any.
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said: But that's an aside. The Rioter has claimed their actions and has been generally accountable. I am satisfied with the veracity of their claim. P2. Hyena claimed to be a Mistborn who drew Bronze N1 and scanned Falcon as a Villager. P3. Falcon confirmed that Hyena had scanned her role correctly. Only one action surely since there was nothing D2 but Iguana's soothe unless you think they were responsible for a D1 riot instead of Gorilla's teammates. That was definitely not specified in Vulture's post. I could have put scan in quotation marks to emphasize doubt, sure. The point is that if there was no scan, Falcon and Hyena are evil. If elim!Hyena scans v!Falcon and then claims to have done so to you, Vulture, and Falcon, Falcon doesn't have a role worth killing or was deemed as being worth keeping alive long enough to 'verify' Hyena before being killed. If v!Hyena scans v!Falcon and tells you, Vulture, and Falcon about it, there's no reason for an elim Rioter to know about it unless Vulture (or you technically) is evil. I do see Iguana or Gorilla as having been more efficient scan targets for resolving D1 than someone who was vocal about killing the one known villager since a village result still narrows things down for the former two but doesn't for the latter. The strongest argument for a false scan is still prior suspicions of Falcon and Hyena, e.g. for pushing Crocodile D1 and Iguana D2 respectively. Hyena being a Mistborn is still probable in any case since it would have to be proved every cycle.
Emerald Falcon Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 Every time i attempt to switch up my playstyle people somehow still want to kill me, so I'm going to tell the person who told me it would work that they're wrong and go back to normal. I suppose I just have one of those "stabbable" faces
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Amber Vulture said: 8 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: You may very well, but as I say above, I do not get a sense from your reply to Fuchsia that you were engaging with the substance of their point. As their point happens to be my point, I wanted to make that explicit. I look forward to your responses to what I've raised, and particularly to your thoughts on why a spiked rioter would seek to keep Emerald Falcon alive. Alright. Fuschia seems to be gone so I'll address you. Sorry if my prior response came off as terse, but I was aiming for a more MU style head-to-head. Isolations have not worked for me this game, so I decided to try another strategy. I felt your interjection risked tainting any read I could get out of Fuschia and was already put off-balance by your revealing of Emerald's scan. Yes, I did not engage with the substance yet, but I assure you I was getting there. I wanted to get a baseline understanding of where Fuschia's mind is before said engagement. I did not like their vote on Turq, and I did not like their response to my not liking their vote on Turq. Even so, I decided to try and understand their position without prior assumptions of their alignment. 2 hours ago, Amber Vulture said: The accusation is derived from my own. Without going back and relooking at the post, my recollection is that it felt uncharacteristically toothless of you. That you subsequently ignored the post of Turquoise Gorilla about their suspicion of Albatross making the absurdly illogical claim about village/elim thug equiprobability without challenge, despite posting straight afterwards and being in the mindset of thinking about Turquoise Gorilla added to my suspicion. See posts 332-348 for the sequence here: Reveal hidden contents Cycle Post Player Summary Vote Retractions Thoughts AI (perceived) Notable connections D1 8 Turquoise Gorilla RP. Proposes we discuss village to eliminator distribution. N/A N/A Unhelpful formatting. Seeks to spark discussion, well trodden ground for early discussion, of limited value (but not much else of value to discuss) NAI None D1 14 Turquoise Gorilla Non-RP post. Believes 6-7 spiked. Suggests eliminator kill role (coinshot/mistborn) N/A N/A Disagree with spiked assumption, probably NAI. Village slip considering coinshot/mistborn equivalent for spiked? Mild village None D1 42 Charcoal Hyena Provides emotion based reads on players who have posted. Says Coral Swan felt village, disagrees with Saffron Iguana but says feels like they are trying to solve game. Gets new player feel from Magenta Albatross, says feels geniuine. Leans village on Scarlet Octopus, says tunneling both offputting and reassuring. Leans village on Salmon Meerkat due to poke vote on Sunburst Toucan. Neutral on Chartreuse Penguin, wants more engagement. Neutral on Emeraldn Falcon. Very slight village lean on Fuchsia Ostrich due to nonchalance to number of spiked. Neutral on Mauve Crocodile, suggest their retraction from Pearl Chameleon and encouragement for players to vote elsewhere could mean E/E. Neutral on Melon Dingo, Oxblood Beagle, wants more engagement. Says would have done the same thing as Pearl Chameleon for same reason, suggests more thoughts based on their response. Neutral on Turquoise Gorilla. Suggests Amethyst Scorpion might have slipped with firm language about elim team being weaker. Votes on Amethyst Scorpion Amethyst Scorpion N/A Emotion based reads both useful and convenient to back down from. Mild support of Pearl Chameleon not explicit in post. Question why Salmon Meerkat's poke vote felt alignment indicative. Not sure I agree re Amethyst Scorpion slipping - feels slightly contrived. Post an attempt to seem helpful, having opinions, without committing to them? Unsure - reevaluate Summons all inactive players. Comments on all active players. Unprompted support for Pearl Chameleon, lynch candidate. Votes on Amethyst Scorpion D1 49 Turquoise Gorilla Quotes player distribution discussion. Says thinks 25% the sweet spot for eliminator numbers, so 6-7 eliminator team N/A N/A Doesn't engage with vote discussion Very mild elim Quotes team distribution discussion, doesn't engage with posts directly D1 88 Charcoal Hyena Replies to Chartreuse Penguin's vote on them. Claims to have started writing reads post before logging in to see alignment. Says solves game by narrowing pool of suspects down. Says switching reads a good thing for determining alignment. Says initially read Pearl Chameleon as village for first post, but reaction to pressure needs looking at. Says village read of Magenta not just because they give new player vibes, but village new player vibes N/A N/A Reminds me of a very dangerous player… Call out writing part of post before logging in. Odd behaviour - although not necessarily alignment indicative, merely player being prepared to be an eliminator. Willingness to admit it perhaps reduces likelihood of this. Explanation of how they solve game NAI. Gut read that genuinely trying to solve game. Watch carefully. Timezone aligns with dangerous player. Reevaluate frequently, gut village Replies to Chartreuse Penguin, Safrron Iguana. Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Mauve Crocodile, Amethyst Scorpion D1 95 Charcoal Hyena Thanks Mauve Crocodile for reads list. Says late for them, so will just update the vote count N/A N/A Very late at 5:30am GMT. NAI NAI Appreciates Mauve's read list D1 118 Turquoise Gorilla Notes typo in Pearl Chameleon's post N/A N/A Doesn't engage with vote discussion, even though centred on themselves Unsure None D1 157 Turquoise Gorilla Asks for a vote count N/A N/A Not engaging with thread enough to find last one and work it out. Not trying to solve game? Very mild evil None D1 160 Turquoise Gorilla Votes on Coral Swan. Reads them null, possibly mildly elim, but doesn't see reason for other trains. Says Pearl Chameleon and Mauve Crocodile both seem village in PMs, doesn't see reason for voting on Charcoal Hyena Coral Swan N/A Four hours left in cycle, not strictly necessary to vote on one of those four, given low vote threshold. Feels like wants to lynch someone, doesn't need a good reason to. Mild evil Votes Coral Swan - not on a team with them, as threatens lynch. Defends Pearl Chameleon and Mauve Crocodile. D1 163 Turquoise Gorilla Says their vote on Coral Swan is because it is too late to start a lynch train, and that they are gut reading Coral Swan as mild elim N/A N/A At least consistent with actions. Poor reason for vote, but prepared to vote and be seen to do so on gut Very mild gut evil Explains vote on Coral Swan D1 193 Turquoise Gorilla Provides updated vote count, in which they are leading N/A N/A Relaxed about outcome? Seems slightly nonchalant Mild evil None D1 213 Turquoise Gorilla Doesn't want to see Mauve Crocodile or themselves lynched, so votes for Saffron Iguana, despite null read Saffron Iguana Coral Swan Four minutes to end of cycle, consistent with self preservation. Announces trust of Mauve Crocodile before they get lynched - seeking village cred? NAI, gut mild village Declared wish to keep Mauve Crocodile alive, voted to lynch Saffron Iguana N1 226 Turquoise Gorilla Joking RP post about lynch N/A N/A Surely something more substantial to say? Unsure None N1 235 Charcoal Hyena Apologises for absence, attributes it to illness N/A N/A Hope you get better soon! NAI None N1 237 Charcoal Hyena Quote links broken due to thread merge. Replies to Saffron Iguana re delayed vote on Pearl Chameleon. Says wanted to look further at Pearl Chameleon. Village reads Amethyst Scorpion for thinkign about E/E pairings. Began making reads list before finding alignment because over eager. Has read Amber Vulture's megapost N/A N/A Not sure I agree with assessment of Amethyst Scorpion's logic - ignores V/E combinations of Pearl Chamerleon, Coral Swan and Turquoise Gorilla. Question whether they have looked further at Pearl Chameleon Unsure Village reads Amethyst Scoprion N1 239 Charcoal Hyena Says made point about starting list pre-PM because Chartreuse Penguin had voted on him for the early reads list, so was trying to make point that for him NAI as started before knowing alignment. N/A N/A Possible, answers Chartreuse's point Unsure Reply to Salmon Meerkat N1 241 Charcoal Hyena Put more weight on readslist than development of it as can address reads list, development only seen over time. N/A N/A Feels fairly defensive, but under scrutiny. Unsure Reply to Salmon Meerkat N1 251 Charcoal Hyena Replies to Chartreuse Penguin. Doesn't think thery have been hedgy. Feels positive about Chartreuse Penguin as thinks they feel paranoid not nitpicky. Asks for thoughts on rest of execution options. N/A N/A Why would an eliminator push such a lynch cycle 1? Feels like an odd village read of Chartreuse Penguin Very mild evil Positive feeling about Chartreuse Penguin N1 259 Turquoise Gorilla Lacking motivation to post. Thinks manipulation all eliminators. Thinks as borne suspicion that eliminators had a motive to keep both Saffron Iguana and them alive N/A N/A Preparing excuse for manipulation after elim soother flip? Very mild evil None N1 262 Turquoise Gorilla Asks Emerald Falcon what they mean N/A N/A NAI NAI None N1 264 Charcoal Hyena Iso of Saffron Iguana. Asks voters on Saffron Iguana to claim if a rioter, to rule out elim soother interference. In summary, early on thinks Saffron Iguana trying to solve game, thinks absence of voting suspicious. Is suspicious of end of cycle interactions re Turquoise Gorilla N/A N/A Read overall thoughtful, certainly agreed at the time with suspicion of Saffron Iguana. Strongly dislike calling for rioters to claim - if village then immediate eliminator targets. Doesn't consider Saffron Iguana being a soother an option Unsure ISO Saffron Iguana, elim read D2 319 Charcoal Hyena Lost progress on ISO of Gorilla to refresh. Thinks Albatross' thug claim welcome. Wary of e!coinshot, as thinks v!coinshot might not have shot N1. Will ISO Albatross to see if reason for shot. If e!coinshot, wary of those looking at survival, not yesterday's wagons N/A N/A Check whether ISOs of Magenta and Turquoise emerge. Think overstates elim coinshot potential. Gut mild evil Thinking about Albatross survival, raises WGG (calls it unlikely) D2 332 Charcoal Hyena ISO of Turquoise Gorilla. Thinks distribution speculation NAI. Doesn't know what to think about PM based reasoning. Leaning elim based on timing of Turquoise vote, posts updated vote count 2 hrs before rollover, unconcerned about leading lynch. Suspects soother. Doesn't see desire to solve game. Gut paranoid villager based on vote manipulation post. Overall confused N/A N/A Overall fairly inconclusive read - return to it if Gorilla flips, as feels like deliberately inconclusive. Contingent on Gorilla flip Equivocates on Turquoise Gorilla D2 335 Charcoal Hyena Disagrees with Coral Swan that one coinshot kill means it is from a villager. Asks why they think a v!coinshot would target Albatross, and ignore counterwagons. Thinks Coral Swan shouldn't dicsount e! coinshot, even if it needs heavy balancing N/A N/A Fair question re Magenta being targeted. Not sure it's wrong to discount e!coinshot - situation feels extremely unlikely to me NAI None D2 337 Turquoise Gorilla Would have voted for Albatross, as thinks survival more likely if an eliminator. Could be villlaghe thug, or elim thug, but if lurched then more likely elim. Equally likely v!thug and e!thug, but lurched more likely elim so votes on Magenta Albatross Magenta Albatross N/A Very poor logic. More likely village than elim, being thug equally likely, so still more likely village than elim. Moderate evil Votes on Magenta Albatross D2 338 Charcoal Hyena Thinsk a village vigilante should never shoot unless for a lot of information, or out of high confidence in killing an eliminator. Thinks early mislynches and elim kills reduce player numbers too quickly regardless. Doesn't want to rule out elim coinshot as longer neglected, the more time there is for them to outnumber us N/A N/A Points made about impact of village coinshot apply to balance of elim coinshot, too. Discussion not focused on players/alignment - NAI NAI None D2 340 Turquoise Gorilla Put weird explanatory stuff in the post because people attacking them for lack of analysis. Voted on Magenta Albatross because they think it's more likely they survived if they're an eliminator N/A N/A Even if one more scenario where they survive if an eliminator, much more likely to be villager in first place - not properly updating beliefs Elim None D2 342 Charcoal Hyena Provides vote count N/A N/A NAI (cynically, not engaging with what I see as pretty extreme logical breakdown ~5 posts above) NAI None D2 345 Turquoise Gorilla Says they don't have motivation to make thought out reads, so thinks someone is suspicious, and builds other suspicions around that N/A N/A Feels like rationalisation Mild evil None D2 348 Turquoise Gorilla RP post N/A N/A Not engaging NAI None On top of this, we have: 1) Last cycle; 2) The mentions of an elim soother throughout consideration of the D1 lynch, which my paranoia says is trying to dissuade people considering the rioter/smoker combination I believe I've shown; 3) Trying to bait out a village rioter claim in #264; 4) You having made a claim about Emerald Falcon, and the spiked rioter activity last cycle seeking to avoid an Emerald Falcon flip. I think the sum of all of this is enough to make me believe you to be more likely spiked than not. We can talk about specifics, but I think debate of the sort you're trying to engage Ostrich in ignores that looking at the totality of a post (in this case your ISO), and what it achieves, is a fair way to come to a conclusion. "Accusation is derived from my own." This is the exact same problem I had with Fuschia's original response. Specifically "you piggybacking and using my suspicion on Onyx to make your own case opposite to Gorilla last cycle." It completely ignores the context of why I followed up their suspicion, the content of my post itself, and the fact that as soon as Onyx gave me a reason to believe they could be village, I dropped it immediately. I do not feel that I am being given the same courtesy; not by Fuschia, you, or now Salmon. I do not feel like you three are considering the possibility that I'm village and are instead reaching for confirmations where there are none. "Uncharacteristically toothless." I would like to point out that I am not the same person I was several years ago, nor am I the person my reputation has left people to believe I am. What I can say is that I am fundamentally not ruthless. Not unless I am confident in my reasoning and I believe the person can take it. I've already gone over this when someone pointed it out on D2, but my read of Saffron was that they could handle a challenge and deliver a response that would help me read them better. Meanwhile, I had a player read on Turquoise (or at least their playstyle was similar enough) that I immediately grouped them into the "early low-hanging fruit exe." I determined an aggressive approach would not work on them, and instead tried to use encouragement to get them more involved so I could actually find a good reason to read them either way. I have done this exact thing several times in the past, but it makes sense that no one remembers the nice version of me. Just the bad and the flashy stuff. "Subsequently ignored the post... making absurdly illogical claim..." This is another problem I have with Fuschia's original response. I am human. I am fallible. Sometimes I accidentally mix up the metal for Soothing and Rioting while role claiming and get executed for it. Sometimes I completely miss a post or forget it even happened because there are 20+ anonymous accounts in the game, a constant influx of posts, and not enough time in the day / spoons in my mental kitchen drawer to contemplate and retain every detail. Sometimes I read a villager as elim, get them executed, then defend an elim and don't help them get executed. I wholeheartedly believe that "wrong" does not mean "evil" and the amount of weight put on it needs to be challenged, if this is the result. I have done the best I can, and if you find what I've done wanting, I believe that says more about the eye of the beholder than anything. "Last Cycle" This legitimately baffles me as an argument because whether or not my conclusion was wrong, I would argue that's the most obv!town spew I've ever had. "...trying to dissuade people..." Mate, I love you to death, I really do. But you are way too fixated on the vote manipulation and I have no dang idea why you're lumping me in with that mess. I completely shut out every conversation that speculates about them unless there is something concrete to work with (vote being moved/removed to save someone, tineye anonymously revealing Seeker scan). If you said anything about riot/smokers, I ignored it, consciously or subconsciously, because I just don't care. It's like Schrodinger's cat to me. Debating if it's a soother or a rioter faking being a soother is as good as debating if the cat's alive or dead. I look at the why, not the how. The only way I'm going to know the how is when I see the flip or read the Master Doc, and most of the time, it's a free agent doing their own thing! And thus do I find your use of the word "paranoia" very apt here because that's exactly how I feel about this entire debacle with you and Salmon. More on that in a bit. "Trying to bait out a village rioter claim in #264." Heck yeah I did! And by the gods, I stand by it! Having said player claim would solve your entire problem right now. Villagers lose because they have little or no information. Elims win because they have more information. Public reveals often benefit Villagers more than Elims, that's a dang fact, except when we're talking important village power roles. Way to let the elims know I'm a Mistborn by the way. Way to let the elims know that I scanned Emerald village. If you're not an elim yourself, frankly, that was terribly irresponsible. "You having made a claim about Emerald Falcon..." I am just so horribly frustrated by this response. Pretend you believe I am a Village Mistborn for a moment. Pretend you believe that I got Seeker N1 and found out Emerald was a Villager. Pretend that Salmon did something absolutely bonkers for an elim, and that Emerald and I mutually agreed to open up our circle and make use out of it. Was I wrong? Would you expect v!Mistborn!me to do any different? Did I ere in my ways? Cause from my PoV, I did everything right. Everything except hide who I am and what I know, apparently. And I thought we didn't make assumptions for alignment based on roles in this meta. Not without concrete evidence, at least. "...and the spiked rioter activity last cycle seeking to avoid an Emerald Falcon flip." Again, making assumptions to justify the paranoid worldview you already have. Have you not considered the rioter could have been a Villager that wanted Turquoise dead and not Emerald? Have you not considered that the elims had no idea about me scanning Emerald and thus didn't act on that information? I really don't see it, my friend, and that kills me because I know you can do better than this. Salmon too. I thought I was frustrated with myself at the start of today's turn because of the flip, but this is a whole other level of tilting. The fact people are more willing to believe extremely convoluted schemes over the simple reality kills me. If you're a village Soother/Rioter who affected yesterday's lynch, you might want to say something to someone now. At this rate they'll be gunning for you next. Edited January 12, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said: because people like me =) and they trust me =) and they tell me things =) Such as the fact that they, like me, were committed to the Gorilla lynch, and deeply disturbed by what we saw as an attempt to derail the lynch of an Elim or a highly-suspected Elim and onto Flamingo, whom we read as Village on the basis of a tone read, further corroborated by Gorilla's death and flip, and the fact that this helps us make sense of the Ocho kill. Ocho's death was meant to clear one D2 CW, providing a tempting situation where of three end-day CWs, two of them had flipped Village, so the Village could be baited into trying its luck with Flamingo. But that's not where it ends. Suppose, for the moment, you are a team with Gorilla on it. Suppose that Gorilla had already encountered D1 threat, ending up as one of three end-day CWs. What do you do? Well, enter Flamingo. Enter a Villager whose voting patterns looked bad because they could be construed as defending Gorilla, removing lynch pressure from Gorilla by diluting the lead train across Gorilla (3 votes) and Crocodile (3 votes.) Enter a Villager who had become a end D2 CW, and around whom suspicion could be build. There was a lot of pressure towards the end of the cycle, wasn't there? Almost as though an Eliminator had come under threat. And Ocho had flipped Village, and Iguana had flipped Village, so who else could it be? I myself nearly was trapped by this reasoning, and had felt that pressure on Flamingo was reasonable initially. Ocho's death was bait. Because if the Village had been lured into killing Flamingo, and Flamingo were to flip V - what then? I submit the Eliminators would have pushed these subsequent lines of reasoning: 1. We should have a higher credence in the claim that all D1 trains were V/V/V because we have just seen that all D2 trains were V/V/V. Let's not repeat 'lynch the CW.' 2. Since Flamingo was a Villager, Flamingo's vote shift to tie the Mauve-Gorilla trains cannot be seen as suspicious. If it cannot be seen as suspicious, then Gorilla in turn does not merit suspicion. And now we see the point of Ocho's death at last. It was meant to save Gorilla. Fortunately for us, that didn't happen. But that's an aside. The Rioter has claimed their actions and has been generally accountable. I am satisfied with the veracity of their claim. I feel that's a slightly question-begging frame because the point that Vulture is driving at is simple: P1. There are reasons to think with high confidence that Falcon is Evil. P2. Hyena claimed to be a Mistborn who drew Bronze N1 and scanned Falcon as a Villager. P3. Falcon confirmed that Hyena had scanned her role correctly. Note, first, that the argument (P1) for whether Falcon is or is not Evil is separate from the Mistborn claim. We'll get to that in a bit. (Just see Vulture, it's late for me and I have more work rip.) But here's the thing: P2 and P3 indicate that only two possibilities happened. That is to say, for Falcon to confirm that Hyena scanned her role correctly and for Hyena to have scanned Falcon as a Villager can be true in only two possible worlds: A. Falcon is scanned by Hyena. This says nothing about Hyena's alignment, and regards the Mistborn claim as being prima facie possible. B. Falcon is not scanned by Hyena, because Falcon and Hyena are in cahoots. B in particular implies and entails a Hyena-Falcon connection such that if P1 holds true (again, see separate argument), then Hyena is also Evil. Or to put it in another way: if you ostensibly claim to have scanned a player as a Villager, and if the player flips Evil, it's clear you are a liar, and Evil as well. By asking why the Elims would have known this, you're begging the question against Vulture because you're already assuming the veracity of the scan. Yet the truthfulness of the scan is exactly what is under question here! I felt that there were other circumstances surrounding the scan that didn't seem right: First, I felt that the claim tripped a number of red flags because it was the correct blend of specificity (see, I'm accountable! see, I'm not killing at night!) and involved an unprovable metal, because the escape hatch is simply that Hyena and Falcon are both Evil teammates. In other words, it seemed designed to project the idea that the players involved are trustworthy even when there was little reason to trust on the basis of the specific nature of the claim. Second, I felt that in particular, the Seeker claim is to be regarded always with prima facie caution, because in Tyrian Falls, Seekers are not Confirmed Good. There is an understandable psychological tendency to get carried away with the results of Seeker scans and forget to ask if you have reason to trust the alignment of the ostensible Seeker in the first place. It's a useful claim in these circumstances because it can exonerate teammates, allowing you to pass them off as Village, so long as the ostensible Seeker doesn't die. People fixate on the utility of Seekers, end up functionally relying on them, and forgetting that their alignment hasn't actually been checked yet. Third, I'm sorry to say, but one has many other helpful options if specifically Seeking 'active players' than Falcon. Going for Cham might have helped to resolve the C1 wagon problem. Coral Swan and Mauve Crocodile are two other players which certainly count as prima facie active. The specificity of picking Falcon is in itself somewhat skewed in plausibility - precisely because Falcon had an inactive C1 and only returned into the second half! Thus, the choice can also be suspected to have been gamed by alignment. In general, I believe that combined with the case against Falcon (discouraging the Gorilla push both in thread and PMs, D1 Mauve crocodile voter, and the connection to Hyena who was deeply implicated and invested in two bad lynches, and defending an Elim who later got executed) - the simplest explanation is that both Falcon and Hyena are Evil together. This entails that the scan is false. The question is a misleading one. Double posting only to say no matter how great you are at constructing a paper and articulating your arguments, these rabbit holes you and Amber have thrown yourselves down have severely blinded you. Remember when I said in our PM that if a conclusion is objectively wrong, there's a flaw in your process somewhere? It's right heckin' here. Quote P1. There are reasons to think with high confidence that Falcon is Evil. Like it or not, your high confidence is wrong. I put in the action, you didn't. I received the result, you didn't. I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Emerald is Village, and the fact that you've somehow tricked yourself into thinking I'm an elim because you refuse to believe Emerald's alignment borders on comedy. And not a good comedy at that. I'm talking the Emoji Movie level of bad comedy. Do you two really think that I, as an elim, would allow events to unfold so astronomically bad that Turquoise, Emerald, and myself all get found out in the same night? I can't tell if you underestimate or overestimate me at this point, but I'm frankly insulted either way. If I had an evil master plan, y'all sure as heck wouldn't be able to figure out. I am confident enough to claim that much. You are so incredibly off, it actually hurts me. Paranoia, paranoia, paranoia. It's such an easy word to say. One that gets used a lot in this community. And while it's a decent survival mechanism, Paranoia is not your friend. Its purpose is to hurt you. To hurt the village. It is exactly what the elims want and you two are singlehandedly giving them the reigns. Kill me. Please. I heckin' welcome it. Then you get to see Emerald is Village and the elims will just kill them anyway. Meanwhile, I'll be dead. Sweet release. Sweet silence. Sweet, sweet vindication. I may have screwed up with my part in the Saffron exe, but that's got nothing on this. All cards on the table for the rest of you: Village Mistborn N1 got Seeker, was debating between Amber, Salmon, and Emerald because I was a lonely boy and wanted to play the game with someone I could talk about big brain things with. Decided not to do either Amber or Salmon for player ID reasons (figured we'd be able to vibe without a scan and I'd figure out their alignment later). Emerald was an unknown but had nice ISOs day one, though I couldn't tell if I was effort clearing them or genuinely reading as Village. Wanted to save myself the headache from solving a slot I expected a lot of dense content from and took the shortcut. N2 got Lurcher. Protected Emerald. Nothing happened. N3 got Soother. Can't prove it until tomorrow. Praying I don't get the chance. Would have liked to have been more helpful, but RNG is what it is, and stubborn people are who they are. Best of luck, my friends. Tyrian Falls is going to need it. Edited January 13, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 Glad to see we got an Elim by cycle 2. I haven't looked very hard at distro speculation, but now that we have a seed to work with and plenty of posts in the past, we have a chance to find an elim or two before the next vote comes up.
Emerald Falcon Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Sapphire Elephant said: Glad to see we got an Elim by cycle 2. I haven't looked very hard at distro speculation, but now that we have a seed to work with and plenty of posts in the past, we have a chance to find an elim or two before the next vote comes up. Ahem. It's. It's Cycle 3.
Melon Dingo Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 "Praise the Ja!" Su's voice rang across the town. A half-hearted and yet heartfelt reply from one of the more recognizable drunks followed, along with a more emphatic statement from the rest of the town who was already on edge. Scimon Tlag was listening, though. He'd been their all day, most of the night, maintaining his little melon cart. Well, maintaining the cart had proved easy. The beautiful, colorful, carefully arranged display of melons lay untouched on the planks, and the jugs of tea were just as heavy being stored for the night as they had been in the morning. The village would rather feast on cheap beer and blood. They'd found one of the saboteurs. The Spiked, that's what they'd been called. They were dead now. That was good, Tlag supposed. The chaos of the first two days had been a boom for popularity, if a bit badly capitalized on, but it couldn't last that way. This wasn't a stable town. Lord Ruler, this wasn't even a stable planet. The mists, ash and koloss were seeing to that. Maybe the Empire would be saved, but this town would be overrun by those blue-skinned behemoths. Either the occupants would escape to deal with the dying lands, or the saboteurs would rip them apart from the inside. But Tlag didn't feel like sticking around for either of those eventualities. Being filled with coins, cut down by farming tools, or squashed by a koloss blade were... bad for business. Trying to escape was a similarly poor idea. What did that leave? The usual plan was to play both sides, then get out before they all figured it out. Well, they'd already made sides, and waiting to the last minute led to a koloss's gullet. So Scimon Tlag had, for the fourth time in his life, absolutely no idea what to do. Su had an idea, though. Maybe Tlag could find one. "Praise the Ja," he said. He didn't shout it to the mists for the world to hear, but he didn't make it a whisper for Su, either. This wasn't just about making a sale anymore. He wanted to say it, and he wanted to be heard. The moment passed. Not entirely; the seed of possibility was still there. But there was also the issue of his food cart - it was covered, but left alone too long and the ash would get on the open slices. He carefully placed the halves on top of each other, then bound them with a few strips of fabric to keep them together. They all fit in his cart a bit too nicely for his tastes. He paused, then looked at Su. He wasn't even wearing shoes. He was standing on a box, just now finishing a speech the world seemed to hate. And he was smiling. Scimon Tlag usually had a rule about using his own merchandise, but maybe he could let it slide. He took out one of his nicer-looking coralmelons, walked over to Su, and set down one half on the box. "Thanks," he said. "Praise the Ja." He unwrapped the second half of the melon and started walking away through the ash. 1
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 13, 2022 Posted January 13, 2022 (edited) Does a little dance that relieves tension in the thread. we’re all friends here <3 Edited January 13, 2022 by Onyx Flamingo weird spacing 2
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