Scadrial vs. Roshar post Lost metal.

[Frustration]

@bmcclure7 I don't often do this, but this is my thread, and the premise is that Roshar is given the ten years to advance up to the point it is at during TLM. That is how this discussion has been going, and it will continue to do so, please stop arguing about this particular point.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Ookla the Frustrated.

[alder24]

This is getting out of hand. The discussion Roshar vs Scadrial spawned several sub-discussions that I'm involved, so any time I'm talking about mistborns, fullborns, even bands, airships, Malwish, even Marsh was ignored - everything that Basin do not have access to is NOT a part of Roshar vs Scadiral. I'm not claiming that Scadiral has mistborn - it's just separate mini-discussion. I'm really trying to be reasonable with possibilities and assumptions that we can make, not have wishful thinking without connection to reality.

I'm assuming that Basin, due to 6 years of trade with Malwish and arresting Set, acquire around 100 grenades, mostly in hand of police. Reasonable, but due to trade it could be easily more.

So let's think about Roshar and what they could do - they decided to invade Scadrial. Kandra and Ghostbloods get that informations and inform Scadrial (Seons, or trip) and shuts down all travel from CR. But we need to assume that Roshar somehow figure out how to resolved issues with moving Sprens, Stormlight, Radiants, Dalinar out of Roshar and Radiants can use their powers on Scadrial - That is a big assumption, it's not gonna happened. But let's say it did. Now they use ships in CR, assuming they can use around 100 of them, each able to transport, let's make Roshar happy, whopping 100 people, assuming more - Radiant and it's sprens are counting as 1, supplies, horses, ship's crew, and non combatant poeple all took half of avialble space on each ship. That means whole fleet of 100 ships can transport 5000 combat units on Scadrial within few weeks/months. And when they get on Scadrial's CR they are greated with huge fireball uder their ships, that reduces them to dust - Scadrial prepared trap and set up H-T bombs in mists of CR ready to explode when Roshar's fleet arrived, insinarating all of Radiants, Dalinar, and vessels. Scadrial wins.

But let's assume, that Scadiral did not do it,. Roshar uses Harmony's perpendicularity to get to PR - and they are immediately welcomed by artillery and machine gun fire pinpointing them to perpendicularity until H-T bomb explodes in their face - Scadiral wins.

Assumig that did not happened, Roshar uses Dalinar to create perpendicularity and move to PR - he's making a huge skybeam visible from Elendel, telling everyone where they are. Scadrial sends responde forces to engage Rosharians that are very slowly moving from CR to PR one by one, with supplies, they begin to fight around skybeam, and H-T bomb falls from the sky, before all troops even are in PR - Scadrial wins again. 

Do we have to go further? Let's go, assuming that it did not happened, Roshar captures perpendicularity on Scadrial and now sets up base for all incoming troops and supplies, engaging in combat with Scadrial's forces around. Wax shows up, duraluminum steel pushes everyone around, and amongs confusion steel ferring spikes Dalinar killing him instantly - Scadrial wins, as without Dalinar, they cannot sustain supplies of Stormlight on Scadrial with sparse, slow vessels from CR. Dalinar is single point failure, if he dies, Roshar loses. 

And all of this was just with 5k Rosharian troops. Now all of them, hundreds of thousands are on Scadrial - and they immediately struggles for supplies, as Scadrial implements scorched earth policy - illneses, not deadly but weakening, passes through Rosharians, draining them out of Stormlight as they are being healed, Soulcasters making food, draining them out of Stormlight, and Dalinar, is forced to became permanent Skybeam to replenish Stormlight while all of Windrunners are now supllies of Stormlight to Radiants and cannot fight - if not H-T bomb, this time Death himself pays him a visit with Atium and spike - Scadrial wins.

Assuming that all of above did not happened, Roshar fights for first time with Scadrial - Roshar formes line hundreds of thousands strong , they move forward into entrenched positions, Radiants are moving with them, some are closing to trenches - artillery opens fire killing thousands Rosharians in closely packed formations, follows by machine gun fire killing thousands more - within minutes Rosharians runs away suffering catastrophical losses even if Radiants are mostly still standing - morale of army is gone as they faced new technology of mass destruction for the first time, noone wants to fight - Scadrial wins and drops H-T bomb on Roshar's camp killing Dalinar. 

 

We can go on and on, but thuth is invasion cannot happen. And that above ignore so many other problems like terrain, as Basin is surrounded by mountains, and closer to Elendel they land, faster the response will be. And no glowing flying man will change that. Roshar would face so many single point failures that it is not reasonable speculations anymore but just wishfull thinking making them ignore all problems and just used Radiants to conquer Scadrial - even in SA the biggest talks are arond supplies and resources in war, not Radiants doing Radiant thing - as all campains involve massive amounts of regular soldiers, who almost recapture Sibling in first hours of Tower invasion. You seam to just ignore it and want Roshar to win, using knowlague you possessed from WoBs, that they don't even know that they don't know about it yet. You cannot just skip past problems that for now they can't resolved. If you're doing that, maybe skiped to the end and wish for Scadrial to just wave white flag and surrender before anything starts, as that's just equally probable as what you wishing for. 

 

23 hours ago, therunner said:

WoB   https://wob.coppermind.net/events/135/#e3347  for needing to spike both spren and Radiant, plus additional WoB https://wob.coppermind.net/events/402/#e13432 the spren still has control over bond, and could break it. So you spike the bond out, and the spren breaks the bond that is now trapped in the Spike, and can rebond possibly even with the person you just spiked (if they are still alive).

You don's that's for stealing powers not bonds - https://wob.coppermind.net/events/402-starsight-release-party/#e13432 - but you need only to kill them.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

As far as I remember Ire (thank you for reminder of the name) had a pipe stretching through Cognitive which was driving their fortress.
I don't think they had any jars.
It is conceivable that it was unkeyed and we just did not know at the time.

They had both pipe, and Dor in jars when they moved out of Fortress

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Shortly before Teft dies he feels harmony between himself and the spren, and thinks to himself he is forgiven and he is close and he has hope. Then he summons Phendora enough to block Shardblade, something Kaladin could not do until swearing 4th Ideal. Chapter 104, pg. 1116.
So he sounds optimistic, not in denial like Kaladin, and can do something that Kaladin could not till swearing 4th. I would say I have strong argument on my hand that had Moash not kill Phendora, he would have sworn 4th Ideal even before Kaladin.

I would say without fight with Moash it would take him a little longer, but he was close.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Not true, only those spren that crossed to PR and stayed unboded for a while have issues. Half the fun of Lift and Wyndle is that clearly Wyndle knows a lot about what Radiants can do, and how to use their powers, but Lift does not really care (plus has her own weirdness).
Fair enough on Stormfather.
Kalak has been working on ways to manipulate Connection so he can leave the system, so he can teach Dalinar something at the very least. You can study problem theoretically without being able to practice.
Ishar (and other Heralds) are rendered sane by contact with Spiritual realm (SR), so as long as someone opens perpendicularity near them, or Windrunner/Bondsmith swears ideal nearby, they will be temporarily sane (and in Ishar's case, cooperative).

Wyndle is bad example as Lift has her whole spirit web messed up. I not sure if that first one is true, as all sprens we've seen did not knew about what can be done, in RoW most would knew as they learned from Radiants - still training new Radiants takes time.

If Kalak knew what to do with connection, he would already done it with help of Ishar, as he, Nale and Ishar has good relations. So Kalad don't figure it out yet. It wan't perpendicularity, it was Navani that made Ishar sane.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

If anything bands and people are comparatively Invested, you cannot push on neither, the human soul is Investiture.
But still, regular soulcaster could soulcast full metalmind no need for Elsecaller, again https://wob.coppermind.net/events/31/#e9681  here he is talking about Soulcasters, i.e. the people wielding soulcasters the device, not Radiants. And average soulcaster could soulcast full metalmind.

Yes, but that's one metalmind, not 16 at the same time. It would require more skill, and touching it for regular soulcastor, doable, but harder.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

No, all she did was delay until reinforcements arrived, not fight. Still stalling can be valid tactics, if you don't mind dying (which would pop the bubble) to a squire or Radiant, since they are better in all physical aspects + have Invested Arts.

Source on Metalborn being able to be quickly organized and trained as assassins and fighters? What about pacifists, people with injuries, physically unable people, etc.?

That's fighting for me, and Marasi has unique skill. TLM, they were talking about using all coinshoters to pushed rocked out of Elendel - if they could organise them to do it, it can be done with small teams, yet longer to train for sure, hard, but with entire population engage doable with some (weak) results.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Ehm, shield? That is obvious thing to use Reverse lashing on, Kaladin even demonstrated that even before he became 2nd Oath Radiant.
Deadplate heals using Stormlight, Living that is debatable.

If the crystal breaks, they breath in Stormlight and are still good to go for a few minutes at least, and that assumes the explosion is near enough, and as said before targeting them is difficult.

How many shells would they need to "fill" the sky with shrapnel? Since they have dozens of AA guns at best?

They't don't use shields. Living let's assume it as well uses Stormlight, as dead blade did not needed it, so it's a feature of plate. Most skilled Radiant inhales light when they want, so if crystal breaks and they don't notice it, they lose all light. Unless they will get injured and inhale instinctively. Lot's but Basin was preaparing for 6 year to conflict and even some wanted to strike first, so we can assume they have hundreds/low thousands as they are easy and fast to make when you have manufactories.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Plus constant firing would warp the barrels fast, necessitating repairs, not sustainable in the long run. They most likely don't even have thousand machine guns, what with army that is 10 000 strong, much less artillery which needs ~5-10 people to be operated and supported properly.

Regarding psychology, I would expect the side that actually fought in wars to have advantage over the side that never did, so Roshar would have advantage there.

No they, don't artillery can fire for days or weeks constantly, they are made for that. Hundreds machine guns do the job. Rosharians won't have advantage, as morale is the most important factor of the battle, and now they face unknown enemy deadlier than any Radiant or shardblade, able to kill thousands within one minute - their lines would collapse instantly. And we all know who conquered America.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

No, 10 years ago there were 300-500 Radiants, and those numbers got there in a year and a half from zero. And you don't need to cover everything, you need to destroy command centers, weapon/ammunition stockpiles, and centers of resistance.
If Scadrians are throwing stick of dynamites in close quarters to try and kill Radiants they are killing themselves far more effectively, since they cannot heal, unlike Radiants. Not the best tactic, arguably quite bad one.

You can give them 2000 Radiants, they still can't make it to Scadrial. And most of them are not 4th oath. They don't know anything about Scadrial, as they just got there, no intel, no language, no familiarity. 

They can throw it form other baricaded room, use murder holes on ceiling, or wires, or traps. It's all about draining Radiants out of Stromlight - very effective tactics.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

They don't. They might have theories on how to apply stuff, but considering how naively peaceful they were, I doubt even that. Why prepare for war when the entire humanity lives together in peace (from their perspective)?

Yet they still have army for 350 years, still make weapons for that army and guns etc. And just now they have 6 years of preparation for conflict with Malwish, some were pushing to strike first, outside cities were preparing for war - it's all there. Tactics are implemented, even if not used. That's how military works. They know how to fight with what they got, they train, they are not stupid - assuming they can't fight as they did not had war is just making them look stupid.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Except Scadrial is not at WW2 level, they are barely WW1 level.
Radiants can fly higher than AA guns can shoot, and for bombarding that is ok.  And Kaladin on 3rd Oath flew width of continent (thousands of kilometers) on only spheres he could carry, so yeah, they have reach larger than the entire Elendel Basin

They have trains, all that's needed to move factory. And no, Kaladin either used storm or huge King's crystals for that travels. Not spheres.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

They could have fired rockets from a ship, as they have been doing during tests. Yet they did not. Why if they could have? The range is still 40-60 miles apparently.

Ehhh no, it's they had too big bomb, as they hated Elendel and wanted all of it gone, not part of it, ano no rocket could fit that bombs. Rockets that they had, had to short range and only for smaller bombs, that would not be enough to destroy Elendel. All of it must be destroy, with all its people.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Too bad Rosharans can create their own perpendicularity, or use Elsecalling powered by a Bondsmith to transport massive numbers without need for Harmonies perpendicularity.

And if Scadrial has to resort to nuking their own territory, they are not doing particularly well.

Yet they can't ship them to Scadiral's CR in such numbers, and there is only one Elsecaller who won't do much. Using H-T bomb for Scadrial means victory and that's all that matters.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

I would wager side with millennia worth of experience knows tactics better

All that experience is gone, when face with different new weapons.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

That is symmetric scenario, how would Scadrians react to Rosharan pathogens? Not sure how relevant of an argument it is.
Hoid is also foreigner, as is Zahel, Azure, that Terris woman, and yet they are not sources of immediate plagues, so it is not as bad as you are making it out to be.

Sick for sure, yet they have moders medicine, so they would be greatly ok after some time. And using half-gods and Hoid, that all cannot get ill as an example is not gonna make it.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Exactly, they have comparative technology, only power source differs.
Also as long as Roshar puts their technology in aluminium boxes

Roshar don't have that technology, they got some toys that are simmilar to it, not whole technology. They still can't use advanced metallurgy, and they have very little aluminum.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Why not? Replicating something, especially if you have dedicated team of scientist focused on technology development (which Roshar has) is not that difficult.
And soulcasting removes need for precise metalwork.

Small anti-matter bomb, and as long as you make it small enough, it is explosion as any other. It is just question of yield. Large enough stack of gunpowder would also blow up your head, and yet we put it in guns.

It's not just about coping it, it's about understanding it, they don't have tools to understand how it's made, too many moving parts, too much precise metalwork. Soulcasting won't make it. They can't make guns. And they can't make microscoping nuclear bombs, stop putting nukes into your gun, that bad idea.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Wax would die quite fast in that ascent of tower at the end of TLM)

Didn't he faced 200 guys with aluminum? As it was said after, that the guys at the top, didn't have aluminum weapons as they were regular dudes, not army before. 

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Some of these (mining, processing) are of limited necessity for Roshar, especially with Soulcasting (and fabrials can mimic all surges so technological development will make soulcasting even more common).

Even then, for immediate war, type of society plays less of a role.

All soulcasting does is draining your Stormlight when on Scadrial - and they have soulcast for iron/steel, not for sophisticated alloys. For industrialization society is important.

23 hours ago, therunner said:

Also Pits of Eltania don't contain perpendicularity, the only descritpion of something which sounds like perpendicularity is in Southern Roughs. https://coppermind.net/wiki/Perpendicularity

I thought it was there, good to know.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Yes they can. Hoid has already done it.

Yes they can, see Hoid. Mraize says that it is a simple Connection issue, so any Bondsmith could make it work.

Hoid is Hoid, not Roshar, and you don't know if Design is with him on Scadrial. Mraize is Ghostbloods, not Roshar, you can't use Scadrial's organisatio and their resources, that sole purpose it to protect Scadrial, for Roshar advantage. Dalinar don't know that.

Spoiler

and SP is far in the future, not an example.

 

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

With Cohesion they can make perfect gems.

You know this, yet they don't and still did not do it - They can make some perfect gems, but not enough to support interplanetary invasion.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The only technology more advanced that Scadrial has is firearms.

Rosharan sanitation is better, their medicine is better, their transportation is better, they have FTL communication. When it comes to infrastructure Roshar is far ahead of Scadrial even when AoL takes place after SA 5.

Yes, great that Roshar can replicate that "better" transportation wherever they want it, rigth? For now chulls do all transportation. FTL is not needed on planet with radio. Medicine is advanced but not on level od industrial modern times. Not to mention sanitation with latrines when scadrial has sewers. Very advanced.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

They don't have a registry of metalborn so they would have to rely exclusively on volunteers to get those powers, further reducing the pool of candidates. And training for assassination takes years.

With interplanetary invasion incoming, they would have to little trainers for that amont of volunteers that will volunteer. They will train them fast with basic as A-Steel/A-iron is the most time consuming. People already trained will be assassins, coverd by all of Roshar fancy toys with copper clouds.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Shardplate will absorb the impact

Yes, and drain them out of Stromlight, cracking - that's what it's all about

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

N. Scadrian guns can't even hit airships, much less Windrunners who can exit the atmosphere.

They have guns, they need to fire up, and made unpenetrable cloud of bullets and shrapnels and explosives. Deterrence.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

And how do they sneak in when a massive alerter fabrial tells the Rosharans when anyone not from their army enters their camp? WoK 432-433.

And there is a massive army of spren able to search out anyone at anytime.

Copper cloud, and pretending to be part of the camp. Or Wax duraluminum steel push, with steel ferring killing who needs to be killed.

 

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

As of right now they have fabrials that can read emotions, in ten years I fully expect them to be able to regulate emotions as well

Not to the extend and scale of Allomancy. And doubt it would be that practical, as every emotion would require it's own pain-fabrial - and that takes a lot of space.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Why on earth would they enter through Harmony's perpendicularity? They can just make a portal straight from Urithiru to the front lines.

No, that just wishful thinking. They can't do it now, they won't learn how to do it in 10 years. 

 

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

1. Why would they walk through the CR when they have portals?

2. Why can't they steal supplies?

They, don't. Scorched earth policy. You know how Russia dealt with Napoleon?

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The cold wasn't deadly, Kaladin remarks in RoW that it didn't deserve to be called a plague.

It would weaken them and that's good enough.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Using Raysium,(which the coalition does have, both Navani's dagger, and Shallan's)

yeah, just 2 small daggers with Raysium will definitely do a job, and help quickly made anti-light in mass production. Think rationally.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The metal is only a key, the power comes from Preservation the same way the surges come from the spren. Honor is just as omnipresent as Preservation, so the Stormfather's Bondsmith can use their powers anywhere an allomancer can.

The Stormfather is a spren bound to Roshar, not Cosmere. And Honor is shattered. It won't be easy for Bondsmith to use it's power out of Roshar. Doable in long run, doubt it will happen it 10 years. 

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

I right now am ready to swear the first 4(and possibly 5 depending on which oath I take for my third) Skybreaker ideals. And I'm not that unusual. I could probably also do several in Truthwatcher, but without knowing exactly what those are I won't make any promises.

And spren can find the people who are ready for their ideals, like how Syl found Kaladin, and people will seek out the orders, just as the orders will seek out new members.

Good thing you're on Roshar ready to help and resolved all problems they faced. And many Sprens are finding new Radiants under Odium's controlled lands and are killed quite fast there.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Why connect them to Scadrial when you can just remove the one to Roshar?

And when did Dalinar ever have to touch someone mid conversation to continue speaking?

That might work. Dalinar had to constantly renew connection to be able to speak, and after some time and meeting them again, he had to do it again. I don't remember how it was precisely described.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Ishar mastered Bondsmithing in his mortal lifetime. Ten years is easily enough.

Hahahaha - no. Jasnah had a lot of time, and still is not on 5th, and can't soulcast organic matter well jak bread/jam well. No mastery of Bondsmithing in 10 years is gonna happened.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

You forget this is Roshar, Crem will settle to the bottom and become stone. And between shardplate, stormlight and Windrunners ability to alter pressure they will be fine. And why would they spend weeks down their, an hour at most.

HOUR??? Do you know how big the ocean is? They would have to WALK under the ocean! Storm, be realistic, not "radiants for the win". Crem turns to stone, because there is no more water, in the ocean there is a lot of water, it would take much longer to solidify - if at all.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Syl, Rua, Phrendorana, Notum, Seekir, and dozens of other honorspren all have different opinions and views on humans. They have similarities, but they are far from the same.

Yet they still the same, value honor and morality above all, Inksprens value logic and reason, and not getting killed and destroing Roshar above all. If before Maya's speech only one joined Radiants, now is too late for more.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

And Animal souls are small and dim compared to human ones. They would never work as a distraction.

But civilians would. With some metal bars. Done, distraction.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

It had notes on range, but not the complicated ballistics needed to make it work. That was all destroyed.

Scientist were most likely arrested, and it's easy to tell them - amnesty for technology, not to mention all other papers confiscated by police. They have it now.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

And I don't think the reaction would work in a vacuum ... This might just make a bunch of light without an explosion

It would. Fireball of plasma would be created in vacuum of space. And in small boxed vacuum, box itself would carried energy for time, and later fireball. It would work the same with or without little box of vacuum. Light itself would vaporised everyone in kilometers of radius, and in tens of kilometers put everything that can be even skin, on fire. Light alone is deadly. Explosion are more than just fiery booms like in the movies.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

As stated above spren are different. You cannot treat them as all the same. And the lightspren have no problem bonding, they just didn't want to bond humans because of their betrayal, but now that that's known to not be the case they will be willing to bond humans.

So humans are not responsible for genocide of 8 spiecies? They still are, reasons might change, but the result still remains the same. Willshaper's sprens will not bond humans, they say it, they giving chance back to Singers and they want to preserve their culture and people, far from war. 

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The war with fused ended ten years ago.

Let's also not forget that handheld grenades could be made, as even chip sized gems would be more powerful than the scadrian equivelent.

Wishful thinking. Fused might won. Todium might rule. Roshar might be second Ashlyn. You don't know that! And they can't make chip sized gems - Wishful thinking again.

19 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

They have portals, why would they go through the CR at all?

Still no portal on Scadrial and it won't be there in 10 years. Wishful thinking.

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Set up alter fabrials, which are set to ignore the Rosharan forces, which is shown to be possible(WoK 432). If anyone unrecognized is approaching the device will blink while simultaneously acting as a painrail on the invader. Anyone attempting to invade will be found and incapacitated.

To drain the morale of the Scadrain forces fabrials set to augment fear, anger, agony, and anxiety, along with plague will be flown into population centers at night, and stonewards will bury them inside buildings. Even with seekers able to sense them finding and removing them would be both difficult and time consuming, not to mention the fact that it wouldn't stop the devices effects while it's in use.

Copper clouds... They will run out of light quickly.

8 hours ago, therunner said:

Also, Kelsier still cannot leave Scadrial (else he could have intervened on Roshar branch), so Ghostbloods don't have the means to enable spren to leave system. Hence someone else has to do it.

Or NONE did it, and in 10 years it will be still impossible.

4 hours ago, therunner said:

Presuming them to be Skybreakers (or enlightened version) is not a stretch.

Or just some guys with dynamite from secret organisation that don't want to be jailed after blowing up bunch of ships

Quote

Kalak lacks the ability to manipulate Connection himself, as he is not Bondsmith nor in possession of Bondsmith Honorblade. That does not preclude him from having theoretical knowledge that could be quickly tested by a Bondsmith, and modified if need be.

So why he did not test it with his buddy Ishar?

Quote

So Bondmisths unchained can do pretty much anything regarding Connection, and more

But they need to know and learn it, and that takes time.

 

[teknopathetic]

I would love a spy thriller novel of Lightweaver/Fused Ones-Of-Masks verses Kandra.

[therunner]

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

I'm assuming that Basin, due to 6 years of trade with Malwish and arresting Set, acquire around 100 grenades, mostly in hand of police. Reasonable, but due to trade it could be easily more.

Malwish, who don't like trading with Basin too much? When the allomantic grenades are rare even among them (per Marasi)?
But sure, hundred maybe.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

So let's think about Roshar and what they could do - they decided to invade Scadrial. Kandra and Ghostbloods get that informations and inform Scadrial (Seons, or trip) and shuts down all travel from CR. But we need to assume that Roshar somehow figure out how to resolved issues with moving Sprens, Stormlight, Radiants, Dalinar out of Roshar and Radiants can use their powers on Scadrial - That is a big assumption, it's not gonna happened. But let's say it did. Now they use ships in CR, assuming they can use around 100 of them, each able to transport, let's make Roshar happy, whopping 100 people, assuming more - Radiant and it's sprens are counting as 1, supplies, horses, ship's crew, and non combatant poeple all took half of avialble space on each ship. That means whole fleet of 100 ships can transport 5000 combat units on Scadrial within few weeks/months. And when they get on Scadrial's CR they are greated with huge fireball uder their ships, that reduces them to dust - Scadrial prepared trap and set up H-T bombs in mists of CR ready to explode when Roshar's fleet arrived, insinarating all of Radiants, Dalinar, and vessels. Scadrial wins.

1) The Radiant powers work everywhere, the issue is getting of Roshar with spren, check WoBs they exist.
2) Spheres covered in aluminum could hold charge.
2) Fourth Bridge is large enough to evacuate Hearthstone, which has several hundred people. So they can build ships to carry ~200-300 easily, cutting the number of required ships considerably.
3) How did Scadrial get electricity and bomb in CR? And why is Roshar approaching exactly at the location of the bomb if they are not dependent on the Perpendicularity for movement to and from CR?

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

But let's assume, that Scadiral did not do it,. Roshar uses Harmony's perpendicularity to get to PR - and they are immediately welcomed by artillery and machine gun fire pinpointing them to perpendicularity until H-T bomb explodes in their face - Scadiral wins.

1) Again, Roshar is not dependent on Harmony's perpendicularity for movement to and from CR, that is Scadrian limitation. So you cannot really set up a chokepoint like that.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Assumig that did not happened, Roshar uses Dalinar to create perpendicularity and move to PR - he's making a huge skybeam visible from Elendel, telling everyone where they are. Scadrial sends responde forces to engage Rosharians that are very slowly moving from CR to PR one by one, with supplies, they begin to fight around skybeam, and H-T bomb falls from the sky, before all troops even are in PR - Scadrial wins again.

Or they use Elsecaller and Bonsmith to Transport them without need for perpendicularity and without need for lightshow.
Also even with perpendicularity, it is large enough you don't need to move one by one (see end of Oathbringer).

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Do we have to go further? Let's go, assuming that it did not happened, Roshar captures perpendicularity on Scadrial and now sets up base for all incoming troops and supplies, engaging in combat with Scadrial's forces around. Wax shows up, duraluminum steel pushes everyone around, and amongs confusion steel ferring spikes Dalinar killing him instantly - Scadrial wins, as without Dalinar, they cannot sustain supplies of Stormlight on Scadrial with sparse, slow vessels from CR. Dalinar is single point failure, if he dies, Roshar loses.

How will Wax duralumin steel-push Radiants in plate?
Steel ferring spiking Dalinar would be a smart move, but why is the Roshar not setting up defenses? Like suppresor fabrials, or at the very least attractor fabrials, painrial mines etc. ?

They do have 10 years to learn about Scadrial, and Shallan is very motivated to learn about and work against Ghostbloods.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

And all of this was just with 5k Rosharian troops. Now all of them, hundreds of thousands are on Scadrial - and they immediately struggles for supplies, as Scadrial implements scorched earth policy - illneses, not deadly but weakening, passes through Rosharians, draining them out of Stormlight as they are being healed, Soulcasters making food, draining them out of Stormlight, and Dalinar, is forced to became permanent Skybeam to replenish Stormlight while all of Windrunners are now supllies of Stormlight to Radiants and cannot fight - if not H-T bomb, this time Death himself pays him a visit with Atium and spike - Scadrial wins

Radiants would not be susceptible to illness they would get healed immediately just breathing in Stormlight, only regular Rosharans, and it would not be as bad (see all the Worldhoppers on Roshar vs only one incident of transmissible disease).
Why are Windrunner unable to fight?
Marsh is seemingly using all of Atium to not die, but even then, he would be considerable danger and would require planning to deal with. But legends of him are spreading through Cosmere, which should allow planning (i.e. use his spikes and Bondsmith to take him over, use abrasion/reverse lashings to immobilize, suppressor fabrial to kill him outright).

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

We can go on and on, but thuth is invasion cannot happen. And that above ignore so many other problems like terrain, as Basin is surrounded by mountains, and closer to Elendel they land, faster the response will be. And no glowing flying man will change that. Roshar would face so many single point failures that it is not reasonable speculations anymore but just wishfull thinking making them ignore all problems and just used Radiants to conquer Scadrial - even in SA the biggest talks are arond supplies and resources in war, not Radiants doing Radiant thing - as all campains involve massive amounts of regular soldiers, who almost recapture Sibling in first hours of Tower invasion. You seam to just ignore it and want Roshar to win, using knowlague you possessed from WoBs, that they don't even know that they don't know about it yet. You cannot just skip past problems that for now they can't resolved. If you're doing that, maybe skiped to the end and wish for Scadrial to just wave white flag and surrender before anything starts, as that's just equally probable as what you wishing for.

I don't want Roshar to just win, I merely think that their numbers advantage, their superior Invested Arts and experience in warfare along with some incredibly destructive Surges makes them a match if not a victor, if they can get off-world. Scadrial has a single advantage, and that is guns and related technology (and a couple of steel ferrings, those are deadly).
So assuming they can move around is sort of necessity for any sort of discussion, because otherwise the thread ends on "Scadrial cannot get to Roshar, and Roshar cannot get to Scadrial. The End."

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

You don's that's for stealing powers not bonds - https://wob.coppermind.net/events/402-starsight-release-party/#e13432 - but you need only to kill them.

To remove bond you just need to spike Radiant, fair enough. But originally you talked about giving Scadrians spikes to grant them Radiancy, for which you would have to spike the spren as well.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

They had both pipe, and Dor in jars when they moved out of Fortress

So they do, fair enough.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Wyndle is bad example as Lift has her whole spirit web messed up. I not sure if that first one is true, as all sprens we've seen did not knew about what can be done, in RoW most would knew as they learned from Radiants - still training new Radiants takes time.

Well Wyndle is saying that his people intentionally send him to give information and to guide Radiant, so it is not due to Lift.
For Honorspren, all of them were born/created after Recreance, so they could not have known how to apply Surges etc, for others there would have been similar issue, as those with experience would have been rendered deadeyed.
But clearly there are exceptions (i.e. Wyndle, Skybreaker spren).

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

If Kalak knew what to do with connection, he would already done it with help of Ishar, as he, Nale and Ishar has good relations. So Kalad don't figure it out yet. It wan't perpendicularity, it was Navani that made Ishar sane.

We don't know Ishar had good relations with both him and Nale. All we know is Nale and Kalak have good relatively close relation, and that Ishar once spoke to Nale to start his crusade against Radiants.

True on Navani, so it is only when Bondsmith swears Oath anywhere or Windrunners swears Oath close enough.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Yes, but that's one metalmind, not 16 at the same time. It would require more skill, and touching it for regular soulcastor, doable, but harder.

Soulcasters soulcast composite items all the time, metal is still metal to them. From their perspective it is just one big complicated metalmind.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

That's fighting for me, and Marasi has unique skill. TLM, they were talking about using all coinshoters to pushed rocked out of Elendel - if they could organise them to do it, it can be done with small teams, yet longer to train for sure, hard, but with entire population engage doable with some (weak) results.

A panicking governor hoped all coinshoters would be able to push rocket out, based on what we have seen Coinshots can do, that feat is little beyond them.
Coinshots cannot push on metals that are too far from them, where too far is ~100 feet at most.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

They't don't use shields. Living let's assume it as well uses Stormlight, as dead blade did not needed it, so it's a feature of plate. Most skilled Radiant inhales light when they want, so if crystal breaks and they don't notice it, they lose all light. Unless they will get injured and inhale instinctively. Lot's but Basin was preaparing for 6 year to conflict and even some wanted to strike first, so we can assume they have hundreds/low thousands as they are easy and fast to make when you have manufactories

Half-shards are shields, Kaladin used shields in WoK so Roshar knows about shields.
And using shields is the first thing you do when your opponent has long range weapons.

They don't have low thousands maybe few hundreds at best, they would not have the people to operate them. They have guns on Elendel perimeter and that is it (and those have range of only ~2000 feet so barely 600 meters).

They wanted to strike first, despite not even being able to build simple zeppelin. I would not give those voices much credit.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

No they, don't artillery can fire for days or weeks constantly, they are made for that. Hundreds machine guns do the job. Rosharians won't have advantage, as morale is the most important factor of the battle, and now they face unknown enemy deadlier than any Radiant or shardblade, able to kill thousands within one minute - their lines would collapse instantly. And we all know who conquered America.

Artillery barrel need to be replaced typically every few hundred shots. So if you want to literally cover field in shots, you will have to replace often.
Hundred machine guns would do the job if the Rosharans kindly lined up, which might happen in the first battle, so once.

America was conquered by colonizers who made deals with natives against other natives and then consistently betrayed them. Oh, and most population was decimated by smallpox and other illnesses.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

You can give them 2000 Radiants, they still can't make it to Scadrial. And most of them are not 4th oath. They don't know anything about Scadrial, as they just got there, no intel, no language, no familiarity.

They had 10 years to gather information and Shallan specifically wants to go after Ghostbloods. Plus they have easier access to CR travel thanks to their Invested Arts.
If we assume no one makes it anywhere, the whole thread is moot.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

They can throw it form other baricaded room, use murder holes on ceiling, or wires, or traps. It's all about draining Radiants out of Stromlight - very effective tactics.

When did this turn from fighting in a city to pre-prepared murder-holes and traps?

And why do you assume Radiants will just run in blind? They have spren that can easily check for traps for them.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Yet they still have army for 350 years, still make weapons for that army and guns etc. And just now they have 6 years of preparation for conflict with Malwish, some were pushing to strike first, outside cities were preparing for war - it's all there. Tactics are implemented, even if not used. That's how military works. They know how to fight with what they got, they train, they are not stupid - assuming they can't fight as they did not had war is just making them look stupid.

Dumb people were pushing to strike first, if Malwish have bombers they would crush Northern Scadrial, all they would need is bombers that can fly 600 meters high.
Tactics are based around known scenarios, Scadrial does not know about Roshar or their capabilities, so their plans would not be made with them in mind.
And again, experience is very important factor.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

They have trains, all that's needed to move factory. And no, Kaladin either used storm or huge King's crystals for that travels. Not spheres.

Those trains that move tens of miles per hour only? And I doubt that their factory equipment is ready to be moved, you need to plan for that.

And no, Kaladin did that just with spheres on his person, no King's drop or Highstorm. He traveled over a thousand Rosharan miles in half a day, on 3rd Oath (Oathbringer chapter 5, pg. 67). So yeah, Windrunners (and whoever they carry) can strike anywhere in the Basin within 6-12 hours depending on where they start from.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Didn't he faced 200 guys with aluminum? As it was said after, that the guys at the top, didn't have aluminum weapons as they were regular dudes, not army before.

Some apparently did. Which makes me question how well can Scadrians (or specifically the Set) shoot, if 200 people cannot hit a single Coinshot in a stairwell.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

All soulcasting does is draining your Stormlight when on Scadrial - and they have soulcast for iron/steel, not for sophisticated alloys. For industrialization society is important.

Drain you of Stormlight and provides the resource you need, it still does what it always does.
Soulcasting can made anything, Jasnah soulcasted jam (a bad one, but still). With skill they could make alloys. It works along similar lines as Soulstamps (though those are far more precise).

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Yes, great that Roshar can replicate that "better" transportation wherever they want it, rigth? For now chulls do all transportation. FTL is not needed on planet with radio. Medicine is advanced but not on level od industrial modern times. Not to mention sanitation with latrines when scadrial has sewers. Very advanced.

Warcamps have latrines, as typically temporary military setup has.
Cities do have some basic plumbing.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

With interplanetary invasion incoming, they would have to little trainers for that amont of volunteers that will volunteer. They will train them fast with basic as A-Steel/A-iron is the most time consuming. People already trained will be assassins, coverd by all of Roshar fancy toys with copper clouds.

How do they know invasion is coming? They did not know about men of red and gold until they were practically at the door.
Even Ghostbloods did not know how bad the situation was.
You seem to overestimate their information services.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

They have guns, they need to fire up, and made unpenetrable cloud of bullets and shrapnels and explosives. Deterrence.

Their AA guns can fire 600 in the air, Windrunners routinely fly higher than that.
Plus when they are dropping they could form Shardblade (if they have it) into a Shardshield, no bullets will go through that.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Copper cloud, and pretending to be part of the camp. Or Wax duraluminum steel push, with steel ferring killing who needs to be killed.

Neglecting alerter fabrials, which can be tuned to not trigger only for specific people?

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Not to the extend and scale of Allomancy. And doubt it would be that practical, as every emotion would require it's own pain-fabrial - and that takes a lot of space.

Or they can just target all of emotions, like Odium does.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

They, don't. Scorched earth policy. You know how Russia dealt with Napoleon

Ah, yes, I forgot that Scadrians are as brutal to their own as Russia is.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

With interplanetary invasion incoming, they would have to little trainers for that amont of volunteers that will volunteer. They will train them fast with basic as A-Steel/A-iron is the most time consuming. People already trained will be assassins, coverd by all of Roshar fancy toys with copper clouds.

Training will still take months, even if you just want to turn people to assassins. It is not as easy as just telling them to be stealthy and kill people.
Plus coppercloud does not block using Invested Arts, so not sure how that would help.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

That might work. Dalinar had to constantly renew connection to be able to speak, and after some time and meeting them again, he had to do it again. I don't remember how it was precisely described

Yes, he had to renew days after last meetings. It lasts enough for the individual visits.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Hahahaha - no. Jasnah had a lot of time, and still is not on 5th, and can't soulcast organic matter well jak bread/jam well. No mastery of Bondsmithing in 10 years is gonna happened.

Jasnah had 6-7 years, depending on when precisely she bonded and needed to hide her abilities for most of that time.
We are not talking about mastery of Bondsmithing in general, just resolving one specific issue that others have already been researching, and some have already resolved.
And maybe boosting Elsecalling like how he is boosting Lightweaving.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Yet they still the same, value honor and morality above all, Inksprens value logic and reason, and not getting killed and destroing Roshar above all. If before Maya's speech only one joined Radiants, now is too late for more.

Why? Did Jasnah spren suddenly break the bond following the revelation? No, so it is not deal breaker for all Inkspren.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

But civilians would. With some metal bars. Done, distraction.

Wow, explicit war crimes already, and on your own population no less.
I don't think we had using civilians as distraction in the last thread.
And what are the metal bars supposed to do? They would not look like souls in CR.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

So humans are not responsible for genocide of 8 spiecies? They still are, reasons might change, but the result still remains the same. Willshaper's sprens will not bond humans, they say it, they giving chance back to Singers and they want to preserve their culture and people, far from war. 

No they are not responsible for it, for two reasons we know from RoW

1. The spren willing went along with it, it was not forced upon them.
2. They did not know it would have this consequences.

That is very different from what everyone thought happened, i.e. that Radiants needlessly and cruelly killed (worse then killed really) their bonded spren.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Wishful thinking. Fused might won. Todium might rule. Roshar might be second Ashlyn. You don't know that! And they can't make chip sized gems - Wishful thinking again.

We know Roshar is considered too dangerous to travel and Ghostbloods still operate there on some limited level.
Not sure how this counterfactuals are supposed to be useful or move the conversation along. It is the same as if in the previous thread someone was arguing Harmony splinters himself, or Trell takes over the planet.

And they don't need to make chip sized gems, they have them, that is what spheres called chips are.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Still no portal on Scadrial and it won't be there in 10 years. Wishful thinking.

So thread is over then, no conflict is possible.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Copper clouds... They will run out of light quickly.

How do you know where to set up copper clouds prior to attack? You cannot cover everyone, there is not enough Metalborn.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Or just some guys with dynamite from secret organisation that don't want to be jailed after blowing up bunch of ship

If he is from secret organization why would he be worried? It is not like they have photos of him, getting lost in city of 5 million would be easy. Especially when government proposed that plan?
The blame would fall on government not them.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

So why he did not test it with his buddy Ishar?

Because Ishar is not his buddy, as explained above.
Ishar had one meeting with Nale.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

But they need to know and learn it, and that takes time.

Yup, and they had 10 years, 2 Bondsmiths and Sibling for consultation (if they will be willing to talk more about Melishi).
Plus whathever Kalak knows, bits from Stormfather and maybe Ishar.
And information from Shin, they did have the blades for millenia.

Edited November 28, 2022 by therunner
removed one needless comment

[alder24]

2 hours ago, therunner said:

2) Spheres covered in aluminum could hold charge.
2) Fourth Bridge is large enough to evacuate Hearthstone, which has several hundred people. So they can build ships to carry ~200-300 easily, cutting the number of required ships considerably.
3) How did Scadrial get electricity and bomb in CR? And why is Roshar approaching exactly at the location of the bomb if they are not dependent on the Perpendicularity for movement to and from CR?

They don't have too much aluminum. 
It is, but it's not in CR - I used ships from CR as the decision about invasion is rather "sudden" to be more equal.
Generators, perpendicularity. They can set up multiple small bombs in multiple locations, from direction of Roshar or close to the CR's ground.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Or they use Elsecaller and Bonsmith to Transport them without need for perpendicularity and without need for lightshow.

That's a very big jump from little map light shows to portals to another star system to make in 10 years - possible yes, but I wouldn't say probable, as in a year he did not do much progres in boosting other orders surges.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

How will Wax duralumin steel-push Radiants in plate?
Steel ferring spiking Dalinar would be a smart move, but why is the Roshar not setting up defenses? Like suppresor fabrials, or at the very least attractor fabrials, painrial mines etc. ?

They do have 10 years to learn about Scadrial, and Shallan is very motivated to learn about and work against Ghostbloods.

He need to push people and boxes/stuff, which would fall on Radiants. And fabrials are literally metal wires - destroyed when Wax pushes, or not fully set up yet in that scenario.
so you giving now 10 years to Roshar SPECIFICALLY so they can learn all about Scadrial in preparation for invasion? How many more unfair advantages do you wanna give to Roshar just so it could won? It's getting pointless to discuss it when you constantly giving Roshar more and more just so they can be better prepared.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Why are Windrunner unable to fight?
Marsh is seemingly using all of Atium to not die, but even then, he would be considerable danger and would require planning to deal with. But legends of him are spreading through Cosmere

In that scenario they constantly transporting Stormlight to the frontlines for other Radiants to use. He's ready to die, and we do not hear any stories of him on Roshar, only Worldhoppers might be source of it. Roshar don't have any Cosmere wide organisation that would probide them direct informations about other systems, only Shallan in her "fight" against Ghostbloods, might know something, but it would be more of "they using metals" than "Marsh can do this and that", and that's another speculation black hole.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

I don't want Roshar to just win, I merely think that their numbers advantage, their superior Invested Arts and experience in warfare along with some incredibly destructive Surges makes them a match if not a victor, if they can get off-world. Scadrial has a single advantage, and that is guns and related technology (and a couple of steel ferrings, those are deadly).
So assuming they can move around is sort of necessity for any sort of discussion

They have superior invested art, but they experience in warfare is useless as they face different doctrine and tactics unknown to them, Bringing sword to the gunfight is a bad idea, and Radiants won't be able to resolve all issues - as even in RoW regular soldiers do 90% of the fighting using regular supplies and logistics. You need this, and not constantly focusing on glowing man and you doing better job at this than Frustration. So yes, lets assume lots of things just to make that battle possible (which is not in any way), Radiants will be huge advantage, but my point is Scadrial can be pain in the backarmor. A real and big one, and with ingenuity, engagment of whole Basin population, and resources which they have (just see what Ranette is able to do, now give her resources of half of the planet) Scadrial can even successfully defend against Roshar, with huge losses, and giving Roshar all reasonable advantages that makes that fight possible, without jumping straight to "Radiants will deal with everything - here is WoB that it can be done". That includes that Roshar will face troubles, like logistic, supplies chains, and barely any intel at the beggining - not 10 years of preperation JUST for the invasion. 

2 hours ago, therunner said:

But originally you talked about giving Scadrians spikes to grant them Radiancy, for which you would have to spike the spren as well.

Yeah, I was wrong, but main point was to kill Radiants, and make all of Scadrial's population a potential enemy in eyes of Rosharians, which for orders like Windrunner or Egdedancers might be troublesome on moral ground. And who knows, they might even defect (don't jump into that hole).

2 hours ago, therunner said:

For Honorspren, all of them were born/created after Recreance, so they could not have known how to apply Surges etc, for others there would have been similar issue, as those with experience would have been rendered deadeyed.
But clearly there are exceptions (i.e. Wyndle, Skybreaker spren).

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that one, so much to write. So most of they learn is from another Radiants, at least now. Skybreaker's sprens are not really teaching a lot, plus on Odium's side, sooo.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

We don't know Ishar had good relations with both him and Nale. All we know is Nale and Kalak have good relatively close relation, and that Ishar once spoke to Nale to start his crusade against Radiants.

Oh no, nonono. Nale met with Ishar multiple times through SA! I counted - after WoR, go hunting in Egdedancer, went back to Ishar in OB - so they are buddies, and Nale could easily help his second buddy Kalak. 

2 hours ago, therunner said:

A panicking governor hoped all coinshoters would be able to push rocket out, based on what we have seen Coinshots can do, that feat is little beyond them.
Coinshots cannot push on metals that are too far from them, where too far is ~100 feet at most.

Yes, they wouldn't succeed, it was to show that they can be organized in relatively short time, as they thought so.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Half-shards are shields, Kaladin used shields in WoK so Roshar knows about shields.

Yet no Windrunner uses them, and thier Sprenshield are not that usefull, when projectiles are coming from all directions.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

They had 10 years to gather information and Shallan specifically wants to go after Ghostbloods. Plus they have easier access to CR travel thanks to their Invested Arts.
If we assume no one makes it anywhere, the whole thread is moot.

But we are assuming they can get there, but I would rather assume with more conventional way, not instant teleport, as that assumes Radiants masters every surges and now rule galaxy, why not - SA 5-10 will be boring. And Shallan goes after Ghostbloods to prevent them from getting what they want, in which she probably succeeded, not to gather information about Scadrial 10 years in advance - if you wanna do this, than you giving Roshar every possible advandate, denying Scadrial even chance to fight, which is pointless.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

When did this turn from fighting in a city to pre-prepared murder-holes and traps?

And why do you assume Radiants will just run in blind? They have spren that can easily check for traps for them.

That's how modern urban combat works - traps are set even by simple thugs in AoL. And after multiple times of getting killed like this, they will change tactic, that will be very effective at the beginning, maybe enough to slow them down, reduce their numbers, engage and distract them from other parts of battlefield where counteroffensive is incoming, or deter them fully from trying to capture Elendel.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Those trains that move tens of miles per hour only? And I doubt that their factory equipment is ready to be moved, you need to plan for that.

And no, Kaladin did that just with spheres on his person, no King's drop or Highstorm.

And can move thousends of tons at once - those one. It can be made ready, that equipment was most likely transported to factory with trains in a first place.
Kaladin DID go with King's personal gems (very end of WoR before epilogue Dalinar sent Renarin to authorize giving Kaladin gems out of king's treasury for his way to home, not King's Drop the gem)

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Some apparently did. Which makes me question how well can Scadrians (or specifically the Set) shoot, if 200 people cannot hit a single Coinshot in a stairwell.

That was no Coinshot, that was Sword of Harmony! And he had explosives grenades launcher with shrapnels in a stairwell going spirally up - they were stupid trying to do it in the stairwell to be fair.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Drain you of Stormlight and provides the resource you need, it still does what it always does.

And reduces available Stormlight for Radiants to use.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

How do they know invasion is coming?

Kandra will inform them, so that just few weeks of preparations (not 10 years like you are giving to Roshar...). Just the same time that would take Roshar to muster their forces, prepere supplies and go. Or Ghostbloods with Seons. I assume they just say let's attack Scadrial, and prepare, gather ships, man, resources and go, and when they start moving, that's when Scadrial will know, assuming travel through CR will take weeks/months in conventional way.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Neglecting alerter fabrials, which can be tuned to not trigger only for specific people?

Full of wires, sooo easily damageable.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Ah, yes, I forgot that Scadrians are as brutal to their own as Russia is.

Yes, because people would definitely want to look from windows of their homes when alien invasion forces came to their town. That make sense instead of moving away with food and reasorces, burning what's left behind. 

2 hours ago, therunner said:

We are not talking about mastery of Bondsmithing in general, just resolving one specific issue that others have already been researching, and some have already resolved.
And maybe boosting Elsecalling like how he is boosting Lightweaving.

But it wan't some might have idea how, but did not try it yet. There might be more to it than they think. And if all boosted Lightweaving can do is little moving map than that's pretty sad. It most likely can do much more, but they don't know how - so jumping from little light shows to interstellar teleportation is too big of an leap to assume. They don't know it can be done - they might achieve moving bigger number of people between CR and PR where they standing but to another planet is too much in my opinion. 

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Did Jasnah spren suddenly break the bond following the revelation? No, so it is not deal breaker for all Inkspren.

Ivory already chose before to bond, just like all others chose not to bond.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Wow, explicit war crimes already, and on your own population no less.
I don't think we had using civilians as distraction in the last thread.
And what are the metal bars supposed to do? They would not look like souls in CR.

I did not tell that they will need to fight, just gathering them will distract, and pretending to move or attack will do the job. Metal bars are for imitating weapons for anyone in CR. People can do a lot when their home is invaded by glowing aliens.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

That is very different from what everyone thought happened, i.e. that Radiants needlessly and cruelly killed (worse then killed really) their bonded spren.

It is different, but that still doesn't bring back all deadeyes. They are still dead. And many will think it's even worst to bond now, as bonding and surges themselves might cause Roshar destruction. Bigger stakes.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Not sure how this counterfactuals are supposed to be useful or move the conversation along.

It's just to remind to make careful predictions about what we have now, what we know now, and how might it change in 10 years, but not to involve any groundbreaking events that may or may not happen in SA 5. So Dallinar is ok, he wanted to learn with Ishar how to remake Oathpact, he learn something from him (without speculating if he remade Oathpact or not) and learn more in 10 years extrapolating the year of learning he already got + some help he might get - not by saying "he's Bondsmith unchained, he can do anything, and here is 10 WoB showing that this things can be done, even if noone on Roshar knows that". So let's assume that events and plot related stuff did not change (as it can go in any direction), but characters's power and knowlague did, and technology progress in reasonable pace, using the data we have from previous books (which very much shows that Dalinar did not progress far, maybe bondsmithig is hard after all?).

2 hours ago, therunner said:

So thread is over then, no conflict is possible.

Yes it is, glad you finally see it.
That's not the only way of getting to Scadrial. We can assume again, for your convenience as always, that it took them 1 Rosharian month form saying "let's invide Scadrial" to getting on Scadrial without talking HOW they get there? All supplies form Roshar would use convenional way of 100 ships (which is not much for army that big and month of travel).

2 hours ago, therunner said:

How do you know where to set up copper clouds prior to attack?

In that situations to which I responded they feel where, or where they approaching Rosharians positions. Or use coinshoters to destroy fabrials.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

If he is from secret organization why would he be worried? It is not like they have photos of him, getting lost in city of 5 million would be easy. Especially when government proposed that plan?
The blame would fall on government not them.

If only government worked like this...
They want to be sure that no police would try to find them for destroying those ships, and Marasi&Wax&Wayne are really good in finding secret organisations, so why risk it?

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Because Ishar is not his buddy, as explained above.
Ishar had one meeting with Nale.

He had 2 just in short time before and after Edgedancer, and very probable sometime after discovering Parshendi. And they spend millenia fighting together and still are no buddies? If Kalak knew how, he would go to Ishar, because he want to get of Roshar really badly.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

And information from Shin, they did have the blades for millenia.

Let's assume they did not wanted to cooperate, as right now they are enemy faction and that a crucial plot of SA 5 - as I mention before. They probably wouldn't want to help if Scadrial invaded Roshar as well, as seen with Odium invasion.

 

EDIT
Let's make bigger assuption, let's merge those planets together, with continets not just close to each other, but touching each other. So logistics, supply chains and "how they get there" is even less of an trouble. Who win then? I would say Radiants, not Roshar, as Scadrial will do damage with guns and technology, devastating regular troops, but over time Radiants, despite suffering heavy losses (let's face it, not every Radiant is Kaladin) will be victorious. Radiants are that strong.
But do you see what I've done here? I ignore extremely huge problems that Roshar must be dealing with during invasion of planet Scadrial - logistics, supplies, getting Stormlight, and travel time - just to give Roshar another advantage, so we stop argue about the same things over and over again with different words. But that problems CAN'T be ignored in real war, Dalinar did not ignore logistics when moving against Parshendi, he did not ignor psychology when fighting with Voidbringers on Narrak, Coalition did not ignore morale when moving troops to Thaylen, and they did not ignore regular footsoldiers and supply chains when they started offensive in Azir. It was all talked about on paper in the books, as that's THE most important part of the war - not Radiants, but all the stuff happening behind the lines. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by alder24

[Frustration]

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Think rationally.

No, that just wishful thinking

.Hahahaha - no.

Storm, be realistic,

Wishful thinking. -

Wishful thinking again.

Wishful thinking.

I would like to ask you to refrain from ad hominem.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yet they still have army for 350 years,

TLM says that the military is new, so it has maybe existed for 8 years max if it was formed as soon as BoM ended.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Hoid is Hoid, not Roshar, and you don't know if Design is with him on Scadrial. Mraize is Ghostbloods, not Roshar, you can't use Scadrial's organisatio and their resources, that sole purpose it to protect Scadrial, for Roshar advantage. Dalinar don't know that.

  Reveal hidden contents

and SP is far in the future, not an example.

 

Mraize already told Shallan about it being a Connection issue.

And Selish magic, which is even more location restrictive than Roshars has been taken off world with simple Connection hacks, Roshar will have the secret shortly.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

You know this, yet they don't and still did not do it - They can make some perfect gems, but not enough to support interplanetary invasion.

I, one person who doesn't have to live with these limitations figured it out in two years. Why would the thousands of Rosharans who have to live with it all the time not figure it out in ten years?

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yes, great that Roshar can replicate that "better" transportation wherever they want it, rigth? For now chulls do all transportation. FTL is not needed on planet with radio. Medicine is advanced but not on level od industrial modern times. Not to mention sanitation with latrines when scadrial has sewers. Very advanced.

1. Navani is moving the power source from Chulls to drop shafts. and with breeding programs making rubies common enough that ~17 years ago any relatively wealthy individual could afford a fist sized pair I expect most countries will have several aircraft for both civilian and military purposes.

2. Radio doesn't allow interplanetary communication. Additionally it can be intercepted, and requires delicate infrastructure to maintain. Not to mention the fact it has to have high elevation where it can easily be destroyed.

3. Vaccines have been invented, as has reconstructive surgery, it's not Modern, modern per se. but it's easily on par with or more advanced than Scadrian medicine.

4. Cities like Kholinar have indoor plumbing

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

With interplanetary invasion incoming, they would have to little trainers for that amont of volunteers that will volunteer. They will train them fast with basic as A-Steel/A-iron is the most time consuming. People already trained will be assassins, coverd by all of Roshar fancy toys with copper clouds.

I find that highly unlikely given that even in the face of potential Malwish invasion the best they could get is 10,000 individuals.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yes, and drain them out of Stromlight, cracking - that's what it's all about

Shardplate absorbs the impact of Renarin falling tens of feet onto his head without a crack. And even if you draw the stormlight from a gem Radiants rarely crack them, and the more perfect they are the less likely they are to do so.

Spoiler

Hut on a Hill

One last question, why do gems crack when Stormlight is drawn out of them quickly?

Brandon Sanderson

When the Stormlight is coming out--you'll notice that there's the slightest physical presence of lots of spren, seons. A lot of this Investiture does have a physical side to it you can feel and that much Stormlight coming through... like when it's leaking out, it is generally going through micro cracks in the structure--where the crystal lattice didn't line up or flaws in the structure--and it coming out quickly like that, it's like hitting it with a hammer from inside along those fault lines. Much less likely to happen based on how good your gemstone is.

YouTube Live Fan Mail Opening 1 (Oct. 30, 2021)

 

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

They have guns, they need to fire up, and made unpenetrable cloud of bullets and shrapnels and explosives. Deterrence.

That won't stop the boulder that they just gave a quadruple lashing down from crashing into your artillery pieces. Not to mention the massive waste of munitions that would be.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Copper cloud, and pretending to be part of the camp. Or Wax duraluminum steel push, with steel ferring killing who needs to be killed.

The range on alerter fabrials exceeds the range a coinshot has. And it would be hard to fit in with a group of 6-7 foot tall people while also looking Shin.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Not to the extend and scale of Allomancy. And doubt it would be that practical, as every emotion would require it's own pain-fabrial - and that takes a lot of space.

Multiple emotions can be done in one bracer

Spoiler

https://coppermind.net/wiki/File:Navani2.jpg

 

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

No, that just wishful thinking. They can't do it now, they won't learn how to do it in 10 years.

Still no portal on Scadrial and it won't be there in 10 years

How lucky then that Dalinar will be learning from the man who did it.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

They, don't. Scorched earth policy. You know how Russia dealt with Napoleon?

You know how they had to be forced to do it, and most of the time armies will move faster than civilians.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

yeah, just 2 small daggers with Raysium will definitely do a job, and help quickly made anti-light in mass production.

Raysium isn't used to make anti-light, and you have 10 years to make conjoined gems of different sizes.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

The Stormfather is a spren bound to Roshar, not Cosmere. And Honor is shattered. It won't be easy for Bondsmith to use it's power out of Roshar. Doable in long run, doubt it will happen it 10 years.

The Stormfather is omnipresent

Spoiler

Questioner

Does the spren have to be present for a Surgebinder to have their abilities? Because with Dalinar, the Stormfather won’t be around all the time...

Brandon Sanderson

Good Question! Fortunately, the Stormfather is a little more omnipresent. Normally you’re gonna have to have your spren close, but the Stormfather absorbed... is basically Honor’s Cognitive Shadow, which means he’s got a connection to a lot of different things, so he’s not bound by a lot of the rules that others are.

Shadows of Self San Francisco signing (Oct. 9, 2015)

Do you have any evidence to back up your claim that his Bondsmith can't use their powers anywhere?

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

 Good thing you're on Roshar ready to help and resolved all problems they faced.

My point was that people ready for high ideals are quite common.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

That might work. Dalinar had to constantly renew connection to be able to speak, and after some time and meeting them again, he had to do it again. I don't remember how it was precisely described.

As @therunner said he only had to do it at the start of each conversation, he could hold it for as long as he likes.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Hahahaha - no. Jasnah had a lot of time, and still is not on 5th, and can't soulcast organic matter well jak bread/jam well. No mastery of Bondsmithing in 10 years is gonna happened.

Ivory refused to let her practice with Transportation, and she had no reason to make organincs, but she was skilled enough with fire to not only soulcast people into it, but to write with it when she ran out of ink. Additionally she had no teacher.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

HOUR??? Do you know how big the ocean is? They would have to WALK under the ocean! Storm, be realistic, not "radiants for the win". Crem turns to stone, because there is no more water, in the ocean there is a lot of water, it would take much longer to solidify - if at all.

If there aren't gemhearts nearby move somewhere else and try again. Windrunners can move several hundred mph, so no walking. So yes an hour is completely reasonable.

Crem settles at the bottom, and will layer over itself. It might take time, but it will happen.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yet they still the same, value honor and morality above all, Inksprens value logic and reason, and not getting killed and destroing Roshar above all. If before Maya's speech only one joined Radiants, now is too late for more.

But how that manifests takes different forms. One can logically conclude, "Other orders will bond, so the best way to save Roshar is to bond myself so I have some influence over this."

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

But civilians would. With some metal bars. Done, distraction.

That's just going to deplete your already small population even faster. And that still won't work as a distraction, because again, human souls are really obvious.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Scientist were most likely arrested, and it's easy to tell them - amnesty for technology, not to mention all other papers confiscated by police. They have it now.

I don't think that an underground group suicidally dedicated to the destruction of Elendel would willingly hand over documents or work for them, more likely they would destroy their research and kill themselves rather than be taken in.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

It would. Fireball of plasma would be created in vacuum of space. And in small boxed vacuum, box itself would carried energy for time, and later fireball. It would work the same with or without little box of vacuum. Light itself would vaporised everyone in kilometers of radius, and in tens of kilometers put everything that can be even skin, on fire. Light alone is deadly. Explosion are more than just fiery booms like in the movies.

You are clearly overestimating the power of this explosion if the light alone will vaporize everyone for kilometers. I thought this was supposed to be a medium sized weapon. And how is plasma being formed in a vaccum? Heat can only be transfered in the form of thermal radiation, so there won't be a shockwave to break the box open.  The vaccume changes quite a bit actually.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

So humans are not responsible for genocide of 8 spiecies? They still are, reasons might change, but the result still remains the same. Willshaper's sprens will not bond humans, they say it, they giving chance back to Singers and they want to preserve their culture and people, far from war.

They aren't if it isn't a genocide.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

And they can't make chip sized gems

Then how do they get the chips?

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Copper clouds... They will run out of light quickly.

In that situations to which I responded they feel where, or where they approaching Rosharians positions. Or use coinshoters to destroy fabrials.

They have larger range than copperclouds do, and they last long enough to be used instead of logs for fires, so several hours a piece. Not to mention the fact that there will be more of them than there are copper mistings.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Or just some guys with dynamite from secret organisation that don't want to be jailed after blowing up bunch of ships

Then why don't they ask their buddy The Survior, who has religious authority over half the city to bail them out. If they can even be found later when sitting out in a cozy bunker guarded by an identity lock.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

So why he did not test it with his buddy Ishar?

Because he's been in Lasting integrety the entire time Ishar has had his honorblade back. Ishar has only had it a few months and Kalak has been their since Jezrien died a year ago.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

But they need to know and learn it, and that takes time.

Like say ten years?

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

They don't have too much aluminum.

They can soulcast it. The old Radiants had enough to plate the entire inside of the tunnels under Urithiru.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

 And fabrials are literally metal wires - destroyed when Wax pushes, or not fully set up yet in that scenario.

Full of wires, sooo easily damageable.

Invested metal wires that can be plated with aluminum except for the tips which will be inserted into an infused gem.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

He's ready to die, and we do not hear any stories of him on Roshar, only Worldhoppers might be source of it. Roshar don't have any Cosmere wide organisation that would probide them direct informations about other systems, only Shallan in her "fight" against Ghostbloods, might know something, but it would be more of "they using metals" than "Marsh can do this and that", and that's another speculation black hole.

Hoid told Jasnah everything he knew about the ghostbloods.

And inquisitors need to rest constently and it gets worse as they age, Marsh could maybe get an hour or three of high activity a day in, not to mention him being vulnerable to CR soulcasters.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

They have superior invested art, but they experience in warfare is useless as they face different doctrine and tactics unknown to them,

That's not true. Indian tribes in the Americas had never seen guns before yet they were still a dangerous threat to early settles using the same tactics they always had, or quickly adapting new ones. Military experience can be reused, but it cannot be immediately formed.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Yeah, I was wrong, but main point was to kill Radiants

You still have to spike them specifically in the heart, not to mention that they can heal hemalurgy.

Spoiler

Kurkistan

So you've said that healing is like the Spiritual wants to heal and then it filters through the Cognitive, but how's that work with healing wounds to the soul like Hemalurgy or Shardblades? What do you refer to to heal the soul at that point?

Brandon Sanderson

You need to make a patch on the soul with Investiture.

Kurkistan

So how's the Investiture know where to go, what to look like?

Brandon Sanderson

Well your soul is an ideal. So if you can get it up there, there are ways to do-- to recreate that with um... See I'm getting into stuff for later books.

Argent

No, that's okay.

Kurkistan

So when Hemalurgy rips something off the soul, is that the ideal soul or some sub-soul?

Brandon Sanderson

That is off of your soul, and it can be healed; but what it's going to be doing is creating a patch of new soul. So it will not be your original soul. Does that make sense?

Kurkistan

Okay, that- well, not completely, but I think that's your intention.

Brandon Sanderson

Yes.

Bystander

If you do that, is that like Frankenstein's monster, or is it like a graft that's absorb--

Brandon Sanderson

Less horrifying- Less horrifying than Frankenstein's monster, but it is a graft that is like-- It is not your original soul.

Bystander

Yeah, but in modern medicine stuff like that is absorbed-

Brandon Sanderson

Yeah, in this you will always have a scar on your soul that something else has patched over.

Kurkistan

So Kaladin shouldn't just keep getting his arm chopped?

Brandon Sanderson

*ignoring/not-hearing Kurkistan just now* But that is what happens with most forms of Investiture in the first place.

Firefight Chicago signing (Feb. 20, 2015)

 

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

 So most of they learn is from another Radiants, at least now. Skybreaker's sprens are not really teaching a lot, plus on Odium's side, sooo.

The Highspren aren't on Odium's side, they are on the Skybreakers side, and the Skybreakers follow Nale who IS on Odium's side. Szeth's spren doesn't care which side he's on. A small but important distinction.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Yes, they wouldn't succeed, it was to show that they can be organized in relatively short time, as they thought so.

They also thought that if they passed the Elendel Supremacy bill that the outercities would obey them. Maybe we don't take them at their word?

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

And can move thousends of tons at once - those one. It can be made ready, that equipment was most likely transported to factory with trains in a first place.

They are also vulnerable if a radiant cuts a single piece out of the track the train cannot move past that point.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

That was no Coinshot, that was Sword of Harmony! And he had explosives grenades launcher with shrapnels in a stairwell going spirally up - they were stupid trying to do it in the stairwell to be fair.

It was a coinshot with a big gun.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Yes, because people would definitely want to look from windows of their homes when alien invasion forces came to their town. That make sense instead of moving away with food and reasorces, burning what's left behind.

Why would they burn their stuff? They're going to want it back after the war is over. And many people are attached to their homes and would be unwilling to move.

 

Additonal way Roshar could mess with Scadrial.

Decay/Rotspren fabrials to spoil their food stores, then use Hunger/Coldspren fabrails to increase the army's need to eat, and use up firewood. Bury the fabrial in stone etc.

 

And can we talk about how Rosharan fabrial technology will take off once they learn about the metallic arts and go "Hey these metals do the same thing in fabrials!" As the fight goes on Roshar will become more powerful, while Scadrial grows weaker.

[therunner]

14 hours ago, alder24 said:

They don't have too much aluminum.

Soulcasting, they can have as much as they want.

14 hours ago, alder24 said:

It is, but it's not in CR - I used ships from CR as the decision about invasion is rather "sudden" to be more equal.

They can move it to CR, or build it new ones there outright.

14 hours ago, alder24 said:

Generators, perpendicularity. They can set up multiple small bombs in multiple locations, from direction of Roshar or close to the CR's ground.

So they would need to set up power lines into CR, or continuously supply generators with fuel, to keep the bombs constantly ready.
And if they want multiple bombs that means setting up multiple supply lines.

14 hours ago, alder24 said:

That's a very big jump from little map light shows to portals to another star system to make in 10 years - possible yes, but I wouldn't say probable, as in a year he did not do much progres in boosting other orders surges.

Not teleporting to another system, using bondsmith-enhanced Elsecalling to move large amounts of troops to/from CR. Much simpler task.

Quote

He need to push people and boxes/stuff, which would fall on Radiants. And fabrials are literally metal wires - destroyed when Wax pushes, or not fully set up yet in that scenario.

Invested items are more difficult to push, and active fabrials would be invested.
But Wax with duralumin might push through, depends on his strength and how invested they would be.

Quote

so you giving now 10 years to Roshar SPECIFICALLY so they can learn all about Scadrial in preparation for invasion? How many more unfair advantages do you wanna give to Roshar just so it could won? It's getting pointless to discuss it when you constantly giving Roshar more and more just so they can be better prepared.

No, I am not giving Roshar 10 years specifically to learn about Scadrial.
I am mentioning that by TLM Roshar has had 10 years, and one of the leaders of the Radiants (Shallan) specifically decided to focus on fighting Ghostbloods and their leader.
And since Ghostbloods are Scadrian organization, that will inevitably lead her to learn about Scadrial.

I am not "giving Roshar more and more", I am just saying they have 10 years to learn stuff (both about wider Cosmere and to extend technology), build up forces and resolve one specific issue multiple people have been working on and know about.

Scadrial in 8 years went from electricity being a novelty to being a staple, building first AA guns and grenade launchers and starting a military. These planets are progressing fast currently, I am just extrapolating.

Quote

In that scenario they constantly transporting Stormlight to the frontlines for other Radiants to use.

Why? One Windrunner can carry enough Stormlight to last several Radiants for hours, and there is a lot of Windrunners (being among the more numerous orders). Some would be free to fight.

Quote

They have superior invested art, but they experience in warfare is useless as they face different doctrine and tactics unknown to them, Bringing sword to the gunfight is a bad idea, and Radiants won't be able to resolve all issues - as even in RoW regular soldiers do 90% of the fighting using regular supplies and logistics. You need this, and not constantly focusing on glowing man and you doing better job at this than Frustration. So yes, lets assume lots of things just to make that battle possible (which is not in any way), Radiants will be huge advantage, but my point is Scadrial can be pain in the backarmor. A real and big one, and with ingenuity, engagment of whole Basin population, and resources which they have (just see what Ranette is able to do, now give her resources of half of the planet) Scadrial can even successfully defend against Roshar, with huge losses, and giving Roshar all reasonable advantages that makes that fight possible, without jumping straight to "Radiants will deal with everything - here is WoB that it can be done". That includes that Roshar will face troubles, like logistic, supplies chains, and barely any intel at the beggining - not 10 years of preperation JUST for the invasion. 

Warfare experience is still experience. Coalition adapted to fighting Regals in the middle of the battle (ending of WoR) and to fighting Fused as well.
The reason we are focusing on Radiants is precisely technological advantage of Scadrial. Any one with half a brain will use their superior forces to soften up the enemy as much as possible (i.e. destroy supply lines rendering guns useless etc.) and then send in majority of regular forces to hold the terrain.

I am not sure why you are saying I am giving Roshar every conceiveble advantage, when the main speculative thing is them just being able to move off-world.
On the other hand, you assume the entire Basin will suddenly become proficient in guerilla warfare apparently and that regular civilians can be trained to become assassin in few weeks.

Quote

Yeah, I was wrong, but main point was to kill Radiants, and make all of Scadrial's population a potential enemy in eyes of Rosharians, which for orders like Windrunner or Egdedancers might be troublesome on moral ground. And who knows, they might even defect (don't jump into that hole).

How does coinshots and steel ferrings spiking Radiants turn all of Scadrial population into enemy in the eyes of Rosharans? I don't follow the logic.

Quote

Oh no, nonono. Nale met with Ishar multiple times through SA! I counted - after WoR, go hunting in Egdedancer, went back to Ishar in OB - so they are buddies, and Nale could easily help his second buddy Kalak. 

Apologies, so Nale and Ishar met twice, not once. Still not exactly buddy-buddy relationship, especially since both times one side wanted something from the other.
And as @Ookla the Frustrated. pointed out, Ishar has his powers and blade only recently (he could have gotten it only after Sazed was exiled).

Quote

Yes, they wouldn't succeed, it was to show that they can be organized in relatively short time, as they thought so.

Organized to push on a thing, not to start fighting in a battle. Mildly different scenarios.

Quote

Yet no Windrunner uses them, and thier Sprenshield are not that usefull, when projectiles are coming from all directions.

Because currently they have no reason to? Since they heal or avoid arrows trivially, and their opponents typically use melee weapons.
Using a shield against foe with better ranged options is a no brainer, I am sure they could think of that, it is definitely much less elaborate then setting up nuke-minefield in CR.

Quote

But we are assuming they can get there, but I would rather assume with more conventional way, not instant teleport, as that assumes Radiants masters every surges and now rule galaxy, why not - SA 5-10 will be boring.

I am not proposing instant teleport, just teleporting people to/from CR en mass using bondsmit-Elsecaller combination.
No need for hyperbolic statements, no one assumes Radiants master every surge, if we did Lightweavers would be throwing around gamma lasers, and Elsecaller would be creating nukes on demand.

Quote

And Shallan goes after Ghostbloods to prevent them from getting what they want, in which she probably succeeded, not to gather information about Scadrial 10 years in advance - if you wanna do this, than you giving Roshar every possible advandate, denying Scadrial even chance to fight, which is pointless.

Yeah, going after organization implies learning about organization.
Again, I am not giving Roshar every advantage possible, the most of an 'advantage' is them moving spren and stormlight off-world. The rest is just what they can already do.

Quote

That's how modern urban combat works - traps are set even by simple thugs in AoL. And after multiple times of getting killed like this, they will change tactic, that will be very effective at the beginning, maybe enough to slow them down, reduce their numbers, engage and distract them from other parts of battlefield where counteroffensive is incoming, or deter them fully from trying to capture Elendel.

Again, how will Radiants not notice traps if they have spren for scouting?
Or can create their own pathways by tunneling under?

Quote

Kaladin DID go with King's personal gems (very end of WoR before epilogue Dalinar sent Renarin to authorize giving Kaladin gems out of king's treasury for his way to home, not King's Drop the gem)

Not king's personal gems, just large end expansive gems (emerald broams) of which King is the easiest source.
At that point Dalinar could not recharge spheres, and Kaladin needed a lot of charged spheres fast (within the hour) so this was the best source. Outside of them being broams they are not special (maybe a bit better at keeping stormlight, but most spheres are comparable anyway).

Quote

That was no Coinshot, that was Sword of Harmony! And he had explosives grenades launcher with shrapnels in a stairwell going spirally up - they were stupid trying to do it in the stairwell to be fair.

Talented coinshot, but still just coinshot, well twinborn coinshot with F-Iron. Still does not make him bullet proof or give him superhuman reflexes.
And yet, they could not hit him anyway.

Quote

And reduces available Stormlight for Radiants to use.

Sure, but there is a bondsmith bonded to remnants of a Shard, making him a bit more omnipresent.

Quote

Kandra will inform them, so that just few weeks of preparations (not 10 years like you are giving to Roshar...). Just the same time that would take Roshar to muster their forces, prepere supplies and go. Or Ghostbloods with Seons. I assume they just say let's attack Scadrial, and prepare, gather ships, man, resources and go, and when they start moving, that's when Scadrial will know, assuming travel through CR will take weeks/months in conventional way.

What Kandra, the only one on Roshar is MeLaan, and she just got there. And how would the Kandra get the message back? They would have few weeks heads-up.
Ghostbloods are better option thanks to Seon, and they still exist on Roshar.
No one assumes Roshar is preparing for invasion for 10 years, only that they are not standing still for 10 years (as you seem to be assuming).

Quote

It's just to remind to make careful predictions about what we have now, what we know now, and how might it change in 10 years, but not to involve any groundbreaking events that may or may not happen in SA 5. So Dallinar is ok, he wanted to learn with Ishar how to remake Oathpact, he learn something from him (without speculating if he remade Oathpact or not) and learn more in 10 years extrapolating the year of learning he already got + some help he might get - not by saying "he's Bondsmith unchained, he can do anything, and here is 10 WoB showing that this things can be done, even if noone on Roshar knows that". So let's assume that events and plot related stuff did not change (as it can go in any direction), but characters's power and knowlague did, and technology progress in reasonable pace, using the data we have from previous books (which very much shows that Dalinar did not progress far, maybe bondsmithig is hard after all?).

Except Dalinar doing things like Connecting Kaladin with spiritweb (most likely) of a dead person for a conversation? That is not impressive to you?
Moving spren off-world is a known issue, that is being researched and desired by their new ally (Kalak), if you think they won't work on it or make progress in 10 years, ok.
We know it can be done (and indeed is done by TLM, possibly even by others than Hoid), it is a Connection problem, and is not as difficult as it can seem.

Quote

Yes it is, glad you finally see it.
That's not the only way of getting to Scadrial. We can assume again, for your convenience as always, that it took them 1 Rosharian month form saying "let's invide Scadrial" to getting on Scadrial without talking HOW they get there? All supplies form Roshar would use convenional way of 100 ships (which is not much for army that big and month of travel).

If you think the thread is over, no need to participate then, no?
And no need for the condescension, you assume Scadrial can build multiple nukes using technology they only learned about and hook them up as mines.
And the only supply Roshar needs is Stormlight, they have soulcasters (that is how they started Vengeance Pact), plus with how fertile Basin is they can also forage.

Quote

If only government worked like this...
They want to be sure that no police would try to find them for destroying those ships, and Marasi&Wax&Wayne are really good in finding secret organisations, so why risk it?

Except they are doing it at government request, and at the requests of one of the people you are saying they would be afraid of (Marasi) and wife of another?
They seem to be covered from every practical angle.

Quote

Let's assume they did not wanted to cooperate, as right now they are enemy faction and that a crucial plot of SA 5 - as I mention before. They probably wouldn't want to help if Scadrial invaded Roshar as well, as seen with Odium invasion.

Fair enough. I presume we can similarly assume that Malwish will not be cooperating with Basin, or supplying them? As they are now enemy faction with prior grievances.

[alder24]

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

I would like to ask you to refrain from ad hominem.

I'm sorry if you fell offended, I didn't mean that. 

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

2. Radio doesn't allow interplanetary communication. Additionally it can be intercepted

It's not needed for Scadrial defence. and Roshar doesn't have technology to intercept it.

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

I find that highly unlikely given that even in the face of potential Malwish invasion the best they could get is 10,000 individuals.

As there is no immediate threat of invasion, no mass mobilisation announced?

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Shardplate absorbs the impact of Renarin falling tens of feet onto his head without a crack. And even if you draw the stormlight from a gem Radiants rarely crack them, and the more perfect they are the less likely they are to do so.

Not every Radiant will have Sharplate. Pure pressure wave of nearby explosion will crack their gems and that would cause light to leak fast.

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

That won't stop the boulder that they just gave a quadruple lashing down from crashing into your artillery pieces. Not to mention the massive waste of munitions that would be.

No it won't. But that's not the waste of ammunition, as it serves its purpose, and with factories they can be made quickly.

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

How lucky then that Dalinar will be learning from the man who did it.

Yes, that "master" that set his whole planet ablaze. And they will be talking about remading Oathpact.

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

You know how they had to be forced to do it, and most of the time armies will move faster than civilians.

And they will be forced to do it here to? Slowing down Rosharian army that is engage with Scadrial's army?

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Raysium isn't used to make anti-light, and you have 10 years to make conjoined gems of different sizes.

It helped moving light from gem to gem fast.

14 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The Stormfather is omnipresent

Yes, that WoB, but I have a question as I want to better understand it. Does that "omnipresence" refers to whole Cosmere, or just Roshar, as question was asked more about Roshar itself? On Rorshar Stormfather is omnipresent, in Cosmere - I don't know. And Shards are bound to the sysmtes they invested in as well. And if that omnipresence is bounded by Roshar, then Stormfather will be needed to be moved to Scadrial the same way as other sprens, which would be devastating but let's ignore that.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

My point was that people ready for high ideals are quite common.

And we've never seen them (Hoid is not an example). So let just say, that they will progress normaly as others, but there are squires that are ready for bonding and jumping into 3rd Ideal.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

As @therunner said he only had to do it at the start of each conversation, he could hold it for as long as he likes.

Spoiler

Questioner

Dalinar can learn languages with the people he contacts. Venli knows all the languages. Could he learn all the languages? And how long would that last?

Brandon Sanderson

His Connection is going to work-- He has to kind of be active about it, so it needs to be-- let me see if I can get the specific words right...

The mechanics I have in the notes is he has to touch someone and will learn to speak the language of their native country, that they spoke as a young person. He's making a direct Connection to that specific person and their way of speaking. So if you have learned another language and Dalinar shakes your hand and activates his Connection ability, he will Connect not to that language you've learned, but to your native language.

Questioner

How long does it last?

Brandon Sanderson

I have it lasting-- it does need to be renewed, but I have it lasting basically as long as-- days not months. But I didn't actually put a define on it, so I'm going to say that's not canon. I'm not canonizing that. But I didn't want him to have to keep renewing it every couple of hours. But he would have to do it again if he left and came back.

Emerald City Comic Con 2018 (March 1, 2018)

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Windrunners can move several hundred mph, so no walking. So yes an hour is completely reasonable.

Windrunner under water? Where water resistance is 1000 times greater than air? No.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

But how that manifests takes different forms. One can logically conclude, "Other orders will bond, so the best way to save Roshar is to bond myself so I have some influence over this."

If they were consider bonds they some would do it just like some Honorsprens did it, but they didn't. Now they think surges are even greater danger.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

That's just going to deplete your already small population even faster. And that still won't work as a distraction, because again, human souls are really obvious.

10 million people. And it might work long enough, and that's the wholo point of it.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

I don't think that an underground group suicidally dedicated to the destruction of Elendel would willingly hand over documents or work for them, more likely they would destroy their research and kill themselves rather than be taken in.

Some might, most want to live, as they were doing it to be alive.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

You are clearly overestimating the power of this explosion if the light alone will vaporize everyone for kilometers. I thought this was supposed to be a medium sized weapon. And how is plasma being formed in a vaccum? Heat can only be transfered in the form of thermal radiation, so there won't be a shockwave to break the box open.  The vaccume changes quite a bit actually.

That's what that level of power is duing (kilometers as 1-4). I'm usually thinking about 15MT bomb, yet even smaller one as 1MT will be enough, as there is no need for someting more powerful. The bomb in TLM was estimated to destroy both Bilming and Elendel if exploded in the middle of the bay - they are around 70 miles away from each other, so 112km, so radius of 56km - that's a looooot. Not even Tsar Bomb had that big power - so I'm scaling down a lot, and giving them few bombs made from leftovers, less than 10, yet I'm using fewer in my predictions. It's hard to estimate what H-T bomb can make, as we didn't get specific numbers about amount of material used in them and power.
The very material making that bomb will became plasma. "there won't be a shockwave to break the box open" I'm sorry what? That bomb will be levitating in the middle of the box or will be connectet to it? And what will happen to the energy released, that I'm sure you know, can't be destroy? Disappear? It will be transmited by different medium - particles and electromagnetic waves - that will transfer so much energy to the box it will vaporised it, and will transfer that energy into the air surrounding the box, heating it up, compreasing it, and expanding outwards - making the same heatwave, pressure wave, fireball etc - the little box of vacuum won't change anything, as in nuclear explosion releases to much energy to be contained by it. 
But we can switch vacuum for hydrogen/helium/nitrogen gas or whatever they come up with. They can make hydrogen with electrolysis.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

They aren't if it isn't a genocide.

So it's accidental mass species murdur - still resulting of death of 8 species.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

They have larger range than copperclouds do, and they last long enough to be used instead of logs for fires, so several hours a piece. Not to mention the fact that there will be more of them than there are copper mistings.

And the fabrials are still gems susseptable to explosions happening nearby.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Then why don't they ask their buddy The Survior, who has religious authority over half the city to bail them out. If they can even be found later when sitting out in a cozy bunker guarded by an identity lock.

Because it's a SECRET organisation? 

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Because he's been in Lasting integrety the entire time Ishar has had his honorblade back. Ishar has only had it a few months and Kalak has been their since Jezrien died a year ago.

But the very first moment he apear on page in Lasting Integrity was when he came back from somewhere else? So why he didn't go to the Ishar in that few months if he know what to do, as he wants to get of that planet by all means?

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Invested metal wires that can be plated with aluminum except for the tips which will be inserted into an infused gem.

So tips would be still pushable? And wouldn't aluminum used like that messed up whole fabrial? It has an effect on fabrials.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

You still have to spike them specifically in the heart, not to mention that they can heal hemalurgy.

With what bond? The one that was stolen? And apperently sprens might get even quickly killed before they will break their bond, but that will not happen, it's just to kill Radiants

Spoiler

Questioner

So, the fan page wanted to know. Would it be possible for Hemalurgy to steal a living Shardblade? That was the top voted question.

Brandon Sanderson

Ok, so you're bonded to a Shardblade. You get spiked, then they spike off the bond so that the Shardblade is bonded to someone else.

Questioner

I assume so...

Brandon Sanderson

But can they do it with a living Shardblade? You can definitely do it with a dead Shardblade because its just stealing the Connection. With a living Shardblade, yes you could do that 'though the spren could break the bond at will.

Questioner

So the spren would survive? That was the second-- the corollary--

Brandon Sanderson

Ehhh. Would the spren survive? The spren would survive as long as the oaths were--

Questioner

Intact?

Brandon Sanderson

--the person didn't break the oaths. But you could theoretically steal the bond, break the oaths, and kill the spren. If you wanted to. Its a very convoluted to kill a spren, they are easier to kill than that, but yes. You could do that. That is a viable but twisted route that you can do. You would end up with a dead spren and a Shardblade, so there is that. But there are easier ways to accomplish that...

White Sand vol.1 Orem signing (June 29, 2016)

 

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

They also thought that if they passed the Elendel Supremacy bill that the outercities would obey them. Maybe we don't take them at their word?

And yet Steris manage to organise successful evacuation.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

They are also vulnerable if a radiant cuts a single piece out of the track the train cannot move past that point.

Traintracks can be checked for damage regularly and replaced on spot.

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Why would they burn their stuff? They're going to want it back after the war is over. And many people are attached to their homes and would be unwilling to move.

Because it's a policy? Army and police will be involved? They would fear the invading force?

15 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Decay/Rotspren fabrials to spoil their food stores, then use Hunger/Coldspren fabrails to increase the army's need to eat, and use up firewood. Bury the fabrial in stone etc.

So Scadrials will be just watching Rosharians planting fabrials in storages and camps? That easy?

 

 

2 hours ago, therunner said:

So they would need to set up power lines into CR, or continuously supply generators with fuel, to keep the bombs constantly ready.
And if they want multiple bombs that means setting up multiple supply lines.

Yes, or move all supplies at once, they have some time for it, weeks. Doable.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Not teleporting to another system, using bondsmith-enhanced Elsecalling to move large amounts of troops to/from CR. Much simpler task.

And that is something very reasonable to assume, finally. Frustration wanted to teleport straight on Scadrial.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Invested items are more difficult to push, and active fabrials would be invested.

How much investiture is in single gem? Not much. Didn't Wax pushed invested metalminds/objects before TLM?

2 hours ago, therunner said:

No, I am not giving Roshar 10 years specifically to learn about Scadrial.
I am mentioning that by TLM Roshar has had 10 years, and one of the leaders of the Radiants (Shallan) specifically decided to focus on fighting Ghostbloods and their leader.
And since Ghostbloods are Scadrian organization, that will inevitably lead her to learn about Scadrial.

Yes, that's better and logical. Before I took it as Roshar having 10 years speciffically to resolve problems about Scadiral.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Why? One Windrunner can carry enough Stormlight to last several Radiants for hours, and there is a lot of Windrunners (being among the more numerous orders). Some would be free to fight.

Long, extended frontlines, lot's of Radiants. It might take a fair amount of them to do it, but also leave some for other tasks, fair enough.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

How does coinshots and steel ferrings spiking Radiants turn all of Scadrial population into enemy in the eyes of Rosharans? I don't follow the logic.

It was about FUN and definitely NOT overcomplicated and real scenario of giving everyone spikes to spike Radiants. But if some people starts spiking Edgedancers that tries to help wounded Scadrials, than they might look at entire population of Scadrial as enemies, as they don't know where the blow would come from.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Organized to push on a thing, not to start fighting in a battle. Mildly different scenarios.

How about organizing them to train to fight first? That was whole point.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

ecause currently they have no reason to? Since they heal or avoid arrows trivially, and their opponents typically use melee weapons.
Using a shield against foe with better ranged options is a no brainer

Still that shield would be quickly shredded to pieces, as Kaladin's shield during battle on Tower.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Yeah, going after organization implies learning about organization.
Again, I am not giving Roshar every advantage possible, the most of an 'advantage' is them moving spren and stormlight off-world. The rest is just what they can already do.

As we could see in TLM, Ghostbloods have many non Scadrial individuals. And learning about Ghostbloods doesn't mean learning everything about Scadrial as well, just more of how they operate, what are they doing, where are its agents, and to some extend technology involved - but I would guess more investiture related like Seons.
And we both agree on that assumpions, and extrapolation of Radiants skills.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Again, how will Radiants not notice traps if they have spren for scouting?
Or can create their own pathways by tunneling under?

At first they might not care, later they will checked, which I don't know now how to counter sprens. And if you don't know the answer than spike them. 

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Not king's personal gems, just large end expansive gems (emerald broams) of which King is the easiest source.
At that point Dalinar could not recharge spheres, and Kaladin needed a lot of charged spheres fast (within the hour) so this was the best source.

So he took a lot of expensive spheres worth fortune, not the usuall amount. Was it described in RoW/OB how much usually Kaladin is having in his pockets to compere it?

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Talented coinshot, but still just coinshot, well twinborn coinshot with F-Iron. Still does not make him bullet proof or give him superhuman reflexes.
And yet, they could not hit him anyway.

That's something better than bulletproof or F-Gold - plot armor. But nooo, I love that scene, especially when Sazed sent him a flash of siege of Luthadel.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Sure, but there is a bondsmith bonded to remnants of a Shard, making him a bit more omnipresent.

Sooo full time skybeam?

2 hours ago, therunner said:

What Kandra, the only one on Roshar is MeLaan, and she just got there. And how would the Kandra get the message back? They would have few weeks heads-up.
Ghostbloods are better option thanks to Seon, and they still exist on Roshar.
No one assumes Roshar is preparing for invasion for 10 years, only that they are not standing still for 10 years (as you seem to be assuming).

MeLaan - by rowing back to Scadrial fast. So, yes weeks at best.
I don't assume they won't progress, I'm focusing more on regular people and what can they do on both sides as they would be vital for invasion on that scale. Radiants are more like a tanks. 

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Except Dalinar doing things like Connecting Kaladin with spiritweb (most likely) of a dead person for a conversation? That is not impressive to you?

I was talking about a year in between books. But that was a big progress.

2 hours ago, therunner said:

If you think the thread is over, no need to participate then, no?
And no need for the condescension, you assume Scadrial can build multiple nukes using technology they only learned about and hook them up as mines.
And the only supply Roshar needs is Stormlight, they have soulcasters (that is how they started Vengeance Pact), plus with how fertile Basin is they can also forage.

Oh, the thread was over long time ago. I'm just here for the after party.
They have bombs, they moved them, they made big boom, they have rockets, used them, so just make bombs smaller, and put in rocket as intended? Is that really that big of an assumption to make?
And slaves, and some more food as each soulcaster has its limits, and some material, metalworks, woodworks, tools. There will be a lot of soulcasting (that will drain a lot of Stormlight) but still supplies will be needed from Roshar. And the further the army goes, the more streached will the supply lines became. And no, catching Scadrials as a slaves will only motivate more Scadrials to fight.
And there is nothing to forage if the earth is scorched. Moreover new "exotic" food will cause further illness, diarrhea etc. Not to mention how lower oxygen level will impact Rosharians, and that's a big one again. What would Rock say?

2 hours ago, therunner said:

Fair enough. I presume we can similarly assume that Malwish will not be cooperating with Basin, or supplying them? As they are now enemy faction with prior grievances.

Yes, at all time. It's like they're not exist at all for me. We don't know what they have, do they even have guns, radio, electricity etc? So no, they are not part of it. Didn't you see that?

 

 

Don't get me wrong, Radiants are powerful and most definitely will be hard to deal with. They're more powerful than anything Scadrial has. With many assumptions we are making (I even include not using H-T bombs to drag on conflict to compare what can be done, as at every stage a could just say they dorp H-T bomb and win) Roshar have fair chances of winning, but that's soly because of Radiants alone. Yet what was that saying again? A Shardbearer can't hold the ground? So it might as well happen, that even if Radiants win all battles, they will heve to withdraw anyway, as rest of the invasion forces will be nonexistent at that point. I'm focusing more of what regular people can do to help, to fight, and what tricks can be use to gain advantage, even for a short while. And yes, guerrilla war is the answer - Spanish people didn't know how to fight like that when Napoleon invaded Spain, and yet they quickly adapted and drain his reasorces, ultimately leading to his defeat. They switched from one big battlefield to thousend small ones, and won. That's my point, Rosharians Radiants are clearly superior and can do almost god-like stuff, but they can't be everywhere. The further the frontlines streaches, the more susceptible Rosharians will become. That might not win the war with current assumptions, but it will hurt very much. 

Remember how Herdaz resisted Odium's invasion for a whole year? Without any supplies, any help, resources, big population, or even single Radiant? They've done that for a whole year, agains lightning striking Regals and Fused. And Fused have all the knowledge of how to fight. 

[therunner]

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

That's what that level of power is duing (kilometers as 1-4). I'm usually thinking about 15MT bomb, yet even smaller one as 1MT will be enough, as there is no need for someting more powerful. The bomb in TLM was estimated to destroy both Bilming and Elendel if exploded in the middle of the bay - they are around 70 miles away from each other, so 112km, so radius of 56km - that's a looooot. Not even Tsar Bomb had that big power - so I'm scaling down a lot, and giving them few bombs made from leftovers, less than 10, yet I'm using fewer in my predictions. It's hard to estimate what H-T bomb can make, as we didn't get specific numbers about amount of material used in them and power.

The very material making that bomb will became plasma. "there won't be a shockwave to break the box open" I'm sorry what? That bomb will be levitating in the middle of the box or will be connectet to it? And what will happen to the energy released, that I'm sure you know, can't be destroy? Disappear? It will be transmited by different medium - particles and electromagnetic waves - that will transfer so much energy to the box it will vaporised it, and will transfer that energy into the air surrounding the box, heating it up, compreasing it, and expanding outwards - making the same heatwave, pressure wave, fireball etc - the little box of vacuum won't change anything, as in nuclear explosion releases to much energy to be contained by it. 
But we can switch vacuum for hydrogen/helium/nitrogen gas or whatever they come up with. They can make hydrogen with electrolysis.

No time to answer fully today (sorry about that), but one note to this: there is not evidence the bomb is actually that powerful (to destroy both Elendel and Bilming).

The only mention of that is by Sazed who seems to be panicking in the moment, and literally 2-3 sentences prior tells Wayne he has no idea how powerful the bomb is. And immediately afterwards expresses fear that the bomb will set atmosphere on fire (an actual fire physicists had prior to detonation of nuclear bombs).

So the statement on hitting both Elendel and Bilming comes from someone who tells us he has no idea what he is talking about, and shortly afterwards makes another estimate we know to be wrong. So I would not put much stock in that estimate.

It is still a nuke, and I would assume it would destroy Elendel in entirety, bu I would expect the blast radious to be about ~4-5 miles to destroy Elendel. This would still put it at circa double Fat Man, so about 40 kT.

[therunner]

Well, they are the only source of Harmonium on the planet, so how will Northerners make H-T bombs without them?
They don't have that much Harmonium available, Malwish are stingy with it.

3 hours ago, alder24 said:

Traintracks can be checked for damage regularly and replaced on spot.

Scadrial already has hundreds of miles of train tracks to check, how do you propose they do that regularly, much less replace it on the spot?
Are they always checking with spare train tracks?

Quote

They have bombs, they moved them, they made big boom, they have rockets, used them, so just make bombs smaller, and put in rocket as intended? Is that really that big of an assumption to make?

Kinda yeah, Set had years to perfect it and they could not do it
Since the H-T bomb requires a lot of electricity to run it is possible they will not be able to put it on rockets until they invent small nuclear reactors or some such.

Quote

Sooo full time skybeam?

Why? All it means is that Dalinar can use all his powers off-world easily, not just create perpendicularities.

Quote

So he took a lot of expensive spheres worth fortune, not the usuall amount. Was it described in RoW/OB how much usually Kaladin is having in his pockets to compere it?

He took what they had on hand that was full. It was spheres he could carry, i.e. Windrunner with just spheres they can carry can fly over a thousand miles in half a day.
I.e. if need be you can have Windrunner strike team that can hit anywhere in the Basin, which was the original reason for my statement on Kaladin.

EDIT: Apologies for the double post, I only wanted to edit the previous one, but was apparently tired enough that I made a new post.
Sorry about that wont' happen again.

Edited November 29, 2022 by therunner
long late edit for doubleposting

[alder24]

2 hours ago, therunner said:

No time to answer fully today (sorry about that), but one note to this: there is not evidence the bomb is actually that powerful (to destroy both Elendel and Bilming).

The only mention of that is by Sazed who seems to be panicking in the moment, and literally 2-3 sentences prior tells Wayne he has no idea how powerful the bomb is. And immediately afterwards expresses fear that the bomb will set atmosphere on fire (an actual fire physicists had prior to detonation of nuclear bombs).

So the statement on hitting both Elendel and Bilming comes from someone who tells us he has no idea what he is talking about, and shortly afterwards makes another estimate we know to be wrong. So I would not put much stock in that estimate.

It is still a nuke, and I would assume it would destroy Elendel in entirety, bu I would expect the blast radious to be about ~4-5 miles to destroy Elendel. This would still put it at circa double Fat Man, so about 40 kT.

Maybe that's better you can't respond to everything, it's getting too long

Yes, there are only Sazed words for that, and estimates of what Harmonium with water does. But that the only informations we got, so what other choice we have? And maybe he is distracted, he is the only one that can properly evaluate it's power for us, as he knows that stuff better than Wax. And about ignition of atmosphere, he know how to make thermonuclear weapons, and they are made with putonium nuclear detonation igniting fusion, so it's reasonable in his distracted mind to worry about it, as he can't run math that fast or something? I don't know why he said that tbf. But he is the only source on that estimation.

And we are scaling it down to more reasonable levels, and I used only once - to denay Roshar entrance. So, going with you, to fully destroy Elendel (radius of 5 miles/8 kilometers) with a surface blast (not airborn), Set would have to have bomb with a yield of 5.5 MT. And that's still a big one.

And I'm using https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ to establish that, looking at moderate blast damage radius, to fully destroy most buildings.

But even smaller bombs, like Fat Man (20kT) would destroy all of Roshar forces if concetrated in one place, when crossing. And when delivered by rockets it's an airburst, so their range increases.

EDIT
But wait, that is only if the explosion happens in the middle of the city, they had bomb on the ship to be detonated in the port - so we need to double the radius - 16km. And that's precisely 43MT - the biggest, Tsar Bomb, had 50 MT.

1 hour ago, therunner said:

Well, they are the only source of Harmonium on the planet, so how will Northerners make H-T bombs without them?
They don't have that much Harmonium available, Malwish are stingy with it.

The one they already have, the one confiscated from Set.

1 hour ago, therunner said:

Scadrial already has hundreds of miles of train tracks to check, how do you propose they do that regularly, much less replace it on the spot?
Are they always checking with spare train tracks?

There are already workers working on the train lines, inspecting them, checking for damage and obstructions, incoming trains also reports damaged sections. Train tracks will be delivered on trains... so that's fast. And they have radio. So you would only need to increase their numbers using system already in place. Do you really believe that few train track damaged would paralyzed entire network and forced Scadrial to capitulate? And I wonder how Windrunners will feel with causing trains to derail killing innocent civilians? I think they would be strongly against that.

1 hour ago, therunner said:

Kinda yeah, Set had years to perfect it and they could not do it
Since the H-T bomb requires a lot of electricity to run it is possible they will not be able to put it on rockets until they invent small nuclear reactors or some such.

Because Set wanted much bigger effect, in war it is not necessary. They wanted strategic nuclear weapon, I want tactical. I don't want to level city.
When rocket on ground - use electricity from the grid, when airborn, use generators on board to do it. Set had everything done, they just couldn't make rocket big enough to fit bomb they wanted to use, which they couldn't scale down. We can. 

1 hour ago, therunner said:

Why? All it means is that Dalinar can use all his powers off-world easily, not just create perpendicularities.

To recharge huge numbers of gems with Stormlight for ever increasing needs of the army and Radiants? He would have to do it few times a day.

1 hour ago, therunner said:

I.e. if need be you can have Windrunner strike team that can hit anywhere in the Basin, which was the original reason for my statement on Kaladin.

Yes, they can do a lot of damage. but it also carries a risks, as if they get cut off Stormlight, they will be dead.

Edited November 29, 2022 by alder24

[Frustration]

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

I'm sorry if you fell offended, I didn't mean that.

You're fine man, I just wanted to point it out now as we had problems on the last thread.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

It's not needed for Scadrial defence. and Roshar doesn't have technology to intercept it.

Radio's can be stolen, or stations taken.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

As there is no immediate threat of invasion, no mass mobilisation announced?

The malwish flew multiple warships through their cities and multiple high level officials said that the Basin would be easy to conquer, if that isn't a threat of invasion I don't know what is.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Not every Radiant will have Sharplate. Pure pressure wave of nearby explosion will crack their gems and that would cause light to leak fast.

No it won't. But that's not the waste of ammunition, as it serves its purpose, and with factories they can be made quickly.

Why would a non-plated radiant fly through it?

And if they fire non-stop anytime a radiant is above them they will use their munitions faster than they can be made.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yes, that "master" that set his whole planet ablaze. And they will be talking about remading Oathpact.

Dalinar initially went to Ishar to learn how to use his powers.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

And they will be forced to do it here to? Slowing down Rosharian army that is engage with Scadrial's army?

1. I don't think forcing your own civilians to abandon their homes is a good idea.

2. Radiants aren't constrained by traditional battlelines, able to fly over, or us the CR to get behind enemy lines.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

It helped moving light from gem to gem fast.

Tuning forks will do the same, and light can be combined without either, as the scientists that were studying Gavilar's sphere caused an explosion without either.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yes, that WoB, but I have a question as I want to better understand it. Does that "omnipresence" refers to whole Cosmere, or just Roshar, as question was asked more about Roshar itself? On Rorshar Stormfather is omnipresent, in Cosmere - I don't know. And Shards are bound to the sysmtes they invested in as well. And if that omnipresence is bounded by Roshar, then Stormfather will be needed to be moved to Scadrial the same way as other sprens, which would be devastating but let's ignore that.

The Stormfather's omnipresence comes from being Honor's CS, and Honor is omnipresent throughout the entire Cosmere.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

And we've never seen them (Hoid is not an example). So let just say, that they will progress normaly as others, but there are squires that are ready for bonding and jumping into 3rd Ideal.

Szeth did the first three in a week and would have done all four if Nale hadn't stopped him on the third, or if Dalinar had allowed him to clense the Shin immediately.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Questioner

Dalinar can learn languages with the people he contacts. Venli knows all the languages. Could he learn all the languages? And how long would that last?

Brandon Sanderson

His Connection is going to work-- He has to kind of be active about it, so it needs to be-- let me see if I can get the specific words right...

The mechanics I have in the notes is he has to touch someone and will learn to speak the language of their native country, that they spoke as a young person. He's making a direct Connection to that specific person and their way of speaking. So if you have learned another language and Dalinar shakes your hand and activates his Connection ability, he will Connect not to that language you've learned, but to your native language.

Questioner

How long does it last?

Brandon Sanderson

I have it lasting-- it does need to be renewed, but I have it lasting basically as long as-- days not months. But I didn't actually put a define on it, so I'm going to say that's not canon. I'm not canonizing that. But I didn't want him to have to keep renewing it every couple of hours. But he would have to do it again if he left and came back.

Emerald City Comic Con 2018 (March 1, 2018)

 

That's what I said, he only needed to do it once per conversation.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Windrunner under water? Where water resistance is 1000 times greater than air? No.

Have you ever been dragged behind a boat? I can tell you that you can still get some good speeds underwater. And even if for some reason they couldn't an edgedanncer would solve that issue.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

If they were consider bonds they some would do it just like some Honorsprens did it, but they didn't. Now they think surges are even greater danger.

Blended thinks that, not all of them. Ivory isn't the only unique Inkspren.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

10 million people. And it might work long enough, and that's the wholo point of it.

10 Million < 100 Million+

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

The very material making that bomb will became plasma. "there won't be a shockwave to break the box open" I'm sorry what? That bomb will be levitating in the middle of the box or will be connectet to it? And what will happen to the energy released, that I'm sure you know, can't be destroy? Disappear? It will be transmited by different medium - particles and electromagnetic waves - that will transfer so much energy to the box it will vaporised it, and will transfer that energy into the air surrounding the box, heating it up, compreasing it, and expanding outwards - making the same heatwave, pressure wave, fireball etc - the little box of vacuum won't change anything, as in nuclear explosion releases to much energy to be contained by it.

Fair enough

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

And the fabrials are still gems susseptable to explosions happening nearby.

So detonate bombs in a civilian area?

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Because it's a SECRET organisation?

So hide in your identity locked bunker and get lost in the sea of 5 million people.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

But the very first moment he apear on page in Lasting Integrity was when he came back from somewhere else? So why he didn't go to the Ishar in that few months if he know what to do, as he wants to get of that planet by all means?

1. How would he know Ishar had reclaimed his Honorblade?

2. He was still in Honorspren lands

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

So tips would be still pushable? And wouldn't aluminum used like that messed up whole fabrial? It has an effect on fabrials.

The tips would be inside a highly invested gem, they would probably be as hard to push on as metal inside the body. And as long as the aluminum doesn't touch, or surround the gem it shouldn't have an effect.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

With what bond? The one that was stolen? And apperently sprens might get even quickly killed before they will break their bond, but that will not happen, it's just to kill Radiants

  Reveal hidden contents

Questioner

So, the fan page wanted to know. Would it be possible for Hemalurgy to steal a living Shardblade? That was the top voted question.

Brandon Sanderson

Ok, so you're bonded to a Shardblade. You get spiked, then they spike off the bond so that the Shardblade is bonded to someone else.

Questioner

I assume so...

Brandon Sanderson

But can they do it with a living Shardblade? You can definitely do it with a dead Shardblade because its just stealing the Connection. With a living Shardblade, yes you could do that 'though the spren could break the bond at will.

Questioner

So the spren would survive? That was the second-- the corollary--

Brandon Sanderson

Ehhh. Would the spren survive? The spren would survive as long as the oaths were--

Questioner

Intact?

Brandon Sanderson

--the person didn't break the oaths. But you could theoretically steal the bond, break the oaths, and kill the spren. If you wanted to. Its a very convoluted to kill a spren, they are easier to kill than that, but yes. You could do that. That is a viable but twisted route that you can do. You would end up with a dead spren and a Shardblade, so there is that. But there are easier ways to accomplish that...

White Sand vol.1 Orem signing (June 29, 2016)

 

Is this an aluminum, or duralumin spike?

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Traintracks can be checked for damage regularly and replaced on spot.

So before any train can leave you have multiple teams check the entire lenght of the track?

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

So Scadrials will be just watching Rosharians planting fabrials in storages and camps? That easy?

Use illusions to hide your presence, spoil the goods, bury the hunger fabrial, leave.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

And that is something very reasonable to assume, finally. Frustration wanted to teleport straight on Scadrial.

And why would that be any harder?

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

How much investiture is in single gem? Not much. Didn't Wax pushed invested metalminds/objects before TLM?

Considering that Roshar is considered "High investiture" While Scadrial is considered "Low investiture" Probably a lot.

Spoiler

Trae Cooper (paraphrased)

Why are Invested objects like metalminds and Hemalurgic spikes able to be Pushed and Pulled on, but Shardblades and Shardplate, which are also invested, are not susceptible to Pushing and Pulling?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

There were a few concepts that he outlined in answering this question.

1.) The ability to Push/Pull an Invested object is predicated to the amount/power of the Investiture.

2.) Further, Invested objects also gain resistance to pulling/pushing based on proximity to soul possibly via the soul. An example given is that a Hemalurgic spike touches the blood of the person, and from there is now part of both the Spiritual Realm and the Physical Realm. This provides what Brandon termed a kind of "soul interference," based on its proximity to the soul.

This further explains why Vin required more than normal power to Push/Pull the metalminds from the Lord Ruler, because of their proximity to his soul, via the Spiritual Realm.

3.) The amount of Investiture is relatively low on Scadrial, whereas worlds like Sel and Roshar are pushing around "high power" according to Brandon. I interpreted this to mean that Hemalurgic spikes and metalminds have low amounts of Investiture compared to Shardplate and Shardblades.

Brandon said that theoretically you can Push/Pull Shardblades and Shardplates but you would need to wield an incredible amount of power. One example he gave that could so such as a thing is that if you were a Mistborn wielding the full power of the Well of Ascension, you could Push/Pull Shardblades/Plate.

DragonCon 2012 (Sept. 4, 2012)

 

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Still that shield would be quickly shredded to pieces, as Kaladin's shield during battle on Tower.

Halfshards are far more durable.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

So he took a lot of expensive spheres worth fortune, not the usuall amount. Was it described in RoW/OB how much usually Kaladin is having in his pockets to compere it?

Early RoW talks about him having four pouches, of I think broams, but I can't remember if that's in there.

5 hours ago, alder24 said:

Oh, the thread was over long time ago. I'm just here for the after party.

The post RoW one was 73 pages long, this thread hasn't even warmed up yet.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

Maybe that's better you can't respond to everything, it's getting too long

Agreed.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yes, there are only Sazed words for that, and estimates of what Harmonium with water does. But that the only informations we got, so what other choice we have?

I actually ran an estimate on page three

Spoiler

 

But here's the relevent part

Quote

I just ran a simulation(Assuming that those barrels were completely full, which they couldn't be due to still needing the arms to pull them apart and room to the trellium. And the weight would be too much for Wayne to lift. And that Harmonium was twice as powerful as Cesium, which I don't think it's that level. So the actual yield would be maybe a third of that.) And got a yield of 4 MT. Even if the Trellium made it ten times more powerful it won't be enough to match the Tsar bomba(the one that the USSR tested) which was 50 MT. Much less the most powerful one ever made at 100 MT. Taking the more accurate yield of 1.3 MT the trellium blast would be closer to 13 MT, which is large modern nuclear weapons.

I still think 1.3 MT is a high estimate, but I'll be generous.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

The one they already have, the one confiscated from Set.

The one Wayne blew up? Or did I miss a second one?

Edited November 29, 2022 by Ookla the Frustrated.

[therunner]

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yes, there are only Sazed words for that, and estimates of what Harmonium with water does. But that the only informations we got, so what other choice we have? And maybe he is distracted, he is the only one that can properly evaluate it's power for us, as he knows that stuff better than Wax. And about ignition of atmosphere, he know how to make thermonuclear weapons, and they are made with putonium nuclear detonation igniting fusion, so it's reasonable in his distracted mind to worry about it, as he can't run math that fast or something? I don't know why he said that tbf. But he is the only source on that estimation.

Well I would say that if the source of estimation itself points out it is untrustworthy and supplies us with information we know is wrong, we should take him with a big pile of salt.

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

And we are scaling it down to more reasonable levels, and I used only once - to denay Roshar entrance. So, going with you, to fully destroy Elendel (radius of 5 miles/8 kilometers) with a surface blast (not airborn), Set would have to have bomb with a yield of 5.5 MT. And that's still a big one.

And I'm using https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ to establish that, looking at moderate blast damage radius, to fully destroy most buildings.

But even smaller bombs, like Fat Man (20kT) would destroy all of Roshar forces if concetrated in one place, when crossing. And when delivered by rockets it's an airburst, so their range increases.

EDIT
But wait, that is only if the explosion happens in the middle of the city, they had bomb on the ship to be detonated in the port - so we need to double the radius - 16km. And that's precisely 43MT - the biggest, Tsar Bomb, had 50 MT.

Ok, fair enough.
I was assuming airborn blast, my mistake. (that is what I get for doing things in haste)

I hope someone asks Brandon about this, I would like some more precise numbers on hand.

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

The one they already have, the one confiscated from Set.

And how much did they confiscate from Set? I don't remember any part were they took a large amount of Harmonium (but that could be my memory).
For all we know Set used up nearly everything in the large bomb (it was three large barrels of the stuff), as they assumed they would be in control of the Basin afterwards.

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

There are already workers working on the train lines, inspecting them, checking for damage and obstructions, incoming trains also reports damaged sections. Train tracks will be delivered on trains... so that's fast. And they have radio. So you would only need to increase their numbers using system already in place. Do you really believe that few train track damaged would paralyzed entire network and forced Scadrial to capitulate? And I wonder how Windrunners will feel with causing trains to derail killing innocent civilians? I think they would be strongly against that.

But routine inspections don't need to be done effectively daily, they would have to massively increase number of people performing the inspections.
And you could use it to set up traps, i.e. damage a section, wait for train with repairs to arrive and then damage section behind the train and attack the train.

I don't think it would force them to capitulate, I never said that. It would however be additional drain on their resources, and they are reliant on full supply chain (mining, transport, manufacture, transport) to fix it, which can be difficult to scale up. A single Windrunner could damage railway in hundreds of places in a single day (as per how far they can fly), engaging thousands of Scadrians to fix it. And then next day, they could do it again.

I don't think damaging non-essential infrastructure is going against Oaths of Windrunners, they don't control the choices of the civilians. You could make the same argument with any larger scale attack Windrunner could do, that civilians could get in the way.

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

Because Set wanted much bigger effect, in war it is not necessary. They wanted strategic nuclear weapon, I want tactical. I don't want to level city.When rocket on ground - use electricity from the grid, when airborn, use generators on board to do it. Set had everything done, they just couldn't make rocket big enough to fit bomb they wanted to use, which they couldn't scale down. We can.

Really can we?
To prepare 0.3 ounces of Harmonium for explosion Wax required his laboratory set up, which was powered by a separate generator (if I remember right). And the explosion was not enough to destroy a room.

To scale it up to appreciable level, I don't think you could fit it in a rocket, they simply lack the technology for it.

If the Set could not scale it down, why could the rest?

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

To recharge huge numbers of gems with Stormlight for ever increasing needs of the army and Radiants? He would have to do it few times a day.

At most he would have to do it few times a week, not day. In Oathbringer perpendicularity opened just for a few moments charged all the spheres across a kilometer or so of terrain.
And even if so, they could move him (and the spheres) around to mitigate danger. Rosharans are more mobile then Scadrian forces.

13 hours ago, alder24 said:

Yes, they can do a lot of damage. but it also carries a risks, as if they get cut off Stormlight, they will be dead.

It is war, it is dangerous.
The only way they could get cut off would be via Leeching grenades (or very brave Leecher, or one with F-Steel spike). Which can be mitigated if they travel in small groups and don't stay too close to each other.

[alder24]

Hi guys, I'm back, did you miss me?

 

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The post RoW one was 73 pages long, this thread hasn't even warmed up yet.

Almighty save me...

 

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Radio's can be stolen, or stations taken.

Frequencies can be changed, messages can be coded, and Roshar can't use Radios without electricity.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The malwish flew multiple warships through their cities and multiple high level officials said that the Basin would be easy to conquer, if that isn't a threat of invasion I don't know what is.

But they are not in a war, but in trade relations. Elendel open sirspace to them. So no, it isn't, it's just show of force. 

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Why would a non-plated radiant fly through it?

And if they fire non-stop anytime a radiant is above them they will use their munitions faster than they can be made.

Because there is little plated Radiants and tasks must be done?
With war time industry focus, where factories will switch produstions to war equipment, they won't. Ammunition can be made quickly in huge numbers. 

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

1. I don't think forcing your own civilians to abandon their homes is a good idea.

2. Radiants aren't constrained by traditional battlelines, able to fly over, or us the CR to get behind enemy lines.

1. no? and you think people would like to stay in home when invading alien army is incoming? With proper propaganda they would gladly burn even forests. It's no problem.
2. You right, but regular soldiers mostly are. And only Windrunners can fly, so for them it would take a lot of effort to coortinate large scale operation with other orders in range of AA guns. Glowing in air is easy to spot. Using CR is also an option. So it would be hard, but Scadrial has big railway connections to quickly react and transfer troops.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Tuning forks will do the same, and light can be combined without either, as the scientists that were studying Gavilar's sphere caused an explosion without either.

Yes, but that's slower, and that is my point.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The Stormfather's omnipresence comes from being Honor's CS, and Honor is omnipresent throughout the entire Cosmere.

Ok, I will take your word on that. 

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Szeth did the first three in a week and would have done all four if Nale hadn't stopped him on the third, or if Dalinar had allowed him to clense the Shin immediately.

His spren denied him 4th ideal I think, from the conversation they had. But even you must admit, that Szeth is a special case, There won't be many like him.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

That's what I said, he only needed to do it once per conversation.

I'm being nitpicking here, but you can have more than one conversation in a day

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Have you ever been dragged behind a boat? I can tell you that you can still get some good speeds underwater. And even if for some reason they couldn't an edgedanncer would solve that issue.

Behind a boat fully underwater? I guess you can, but the water resistance is 1000 times bigger so it would be much slower than in the air for Windrunners. Edgedancers could, but they would have to swim, so it would be extreamy slow. And how would they found it? So how many orders do you already include in that endeavor, it soon ended with everyone searching for big crystals and not fighting. You have to count pressure, darkness, vastnes of the oceans, and structures on the bottom. And if it was doable Fused would already recover Thrill.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Blended thinks that, not all of them. Ivory isn't the only unique Inkspren.

And she herself says that Maya's words are much worst than what they thought previously.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

10 Million < 100 Million+

10 millon in heavly Industrial society vs 100/2 million (not all of Roshar) in medieval one. Not to mention 10 million are already on Scadrial, Rosharians are not.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

So detonate bombs in a civilian area?

What bombs? TNT, grenades and artillery shells - yes, H-T bomb - no. It's urban warfare so there would be explosions in urban area. That's why you evacuate population or make sure they safe in predesignated places. 

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

So hide in your identity locked bunker and get lost in the sea of 5 million people.

When the police is hunting that secret organisation for sinking ships, because the governor don't want to take a blame for sinking some rich guy's ships? How that geting lost in crowed worked for Set? Tbf I also believe they might be Skybreakers, but I acknowledge there might be other, simpler explanation. 

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

1. How would he know Ishar had reclaimed his Honorblade?

By hearing about Tukari in CR, or hearing news? He have his ways to be on time with news.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The tips would be inside a highly invested gem, they would probably be as hard to push on as metal inside the body. And as long as the aluminum doesn't touch, or surround the gem it shouldn't have an effect.

Aluminum doesn't have to touch a gem to have an effect - Kholinar's aluminum rook doesn't allow spanread to work - the sheer presence of aluminum might change the effects of fabrials. Using aluminum with fabrials is still a novelty. But I admitt, I'm not good at fabrials.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Is this an aluminum, or duralumin spike?

Whatever it is that would steal the Nahel Bond - both would work I think? Duralumin for sure as it steals connection. Aluminum would steal Radiant powers so bond would be still there and they would be able to heal? With aluminum you could steal healing powers, so no healing for Radiants. Did I get that right? Or nicrosil to steal Stormlight if they don't have any more - no healing. Dead Radiant in all cases.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

So before any train can leave you have multiple teams check the entire lenght of the track?

Yeah, use horses or that man-power little rail vehicle. With a lot of people involved, and devided in teams each responsible for some part of the traks, and with already existing train signals to warn incoming trains, it is doable. They can also run weak current through likeevery 1 km, with detector at the end, to check if the rail is intact. Or have observation and lookout posts for glowing man in the sky. 

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Use illusions to hide your presence, spoil the goods, bury the hunger fabrial, leave.

Counter by leacher grenades and, when it's spoiling/getting hungry to fast they would notice, invastigate and discover what it was - they could then  counter that easily with more leacher grenades or changing storages on regular basis. And illusions won't give you the understanding of language and customs, guard's won't let anyone unauthorised into the storage, and suspicious activities will be noticeable.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

And why would that be any harder?

I don't know, maybe it's because several dozens light years away?

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Considering that Roshar is considered "High investiture" While Scadrial is considered "Low investiture" Probably a lot.

Yes, but that was about whole planet, not investiture density in a gem. Comparing metalminds to sharplates in not giving us anything to deduce how much investiture is in a gem. On Roshar you got Highstorms being High investiture, on Scadrial there is no such a thing.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Halfshards are far more durable.

And I'm sure that the Windrunners (mostly former slaves) would be very pleased to use gems with Honorsprens or other sapient sprens (slavery of sapient sprens) in them. That's totally aligned with thier second oath. No problem at all.

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

I just ran a simulation(Assuming that those barrels were completely full, which they couldn't be due to still needing the arms to pull them apart and room to the trellium. And the weight would be too much for Wayne to lift. And that Harmonium was twice as powerful as Cesium, which I don't think it's that level. So the actual yield would be maybe a third of that.) And got a yield of 4 MT. Even if the Trellium made it ten times more powerful it won't be enough to match the Tsar bomba(the one that the USSR tested) which was 50 MT. Much less the most powerful one ever made at 100 MT. Taking the more accurate yield of 1.3 MT the trellium blast would be closer to 13 MT, which is large modern nuclear weapons.

Twice as powerful as cesium at what? Are estimating H-T reaction which is fission or H-water reaction which is pure chemical? And how does H-T fission work? It's not easily scalable to tell just 10 or 100 time more, esspecialy when Harmonium-water reaction is chemical, so not proportionate to fission/fusion one. There are no neutrons released (most likely, we don't know if harmornium or trellium are radioactive, or if one of them is "neutron generator", but no one describe them as hot or burning, and no on got radiation poisoning so no?), I would think that the fission is made by pure nuclar forces, not neutrons splitting atoms (as there is no moderator or neutron reflector placed to make explosion), therefore acting on all atoms at given rage, drastically increasing fission efficiency, compare to regular earthly fission. Or there can be something else going on, like Harmonium spliting up into Atium and Lerasium, and then immediately those two atoms combines back into Harmonium again with fusion reaction - which would make it work like a real thermonuclear bomb, explainig yield. Biggest non-fusion, pure fission, bomb had yield of 500kT, so Harmonium-Trellium reaction migh be a fussion one, to explain the yield.

We don't know anything about god's metals, we need Cosmere periodic table with properties of god's metals etc, to properly understand how it word. We need Brandon to show us the math!

On 29.11.2022 at 10:18 PM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The one Wayne blew up? Or did I miss a second one?

I'm literally writing this in every post, most Harmonium is coming from 6 year long trade exchange with Malwish, some little amounts are form Set - leftovers from tests, or remember there were two factions inside Set, they might heve its own separate little pile of Harmonium. Just a little.

 

 

On 30.11.2022 at 9:32 AM, therunner said:

Well I would say that if the source of estimation itself points out it is untrustworthy and supplies us with information we know is wrong, we should take him with a big pile of salt.

Yes, but right after it Sazed was accurately predicting what can be done to stop the bomb and what results it would give. And I give you better estimates not involving Sazed.

On 30.11.2022 at 9:32 AM, therunner said:

I hope someone asks Brandon about this, I would like some more precise numbers on hand.

Oh yeah, me to, I want to see math, numbers and everything!

On 30.11.2022 at 9:32 AM, therunner said:

And how much did they confiscate from Set? I don't remember any part were they took a large amount of Harmonium (but that could be my memory).
For all we know Set used up nearly everything in the large bomb (it was three large barrels of the stuff), as they assumed they would be in control of the Basin afterwards.

They got Harmonium somehow after BoM (I don't know either, the downed Malwish ship from BoM where Allik and Telsin were?), and they made bomb to fit it in rocket first. So the very likely make it big enough to destroy Elendel, but not too crazy big, as they wanted to fit in rocket, which they failed. I'm not talking about huge pile of Harmonium, most of it Basin would get from trade, small amounts from Set. 

On 30.11.2022 at 9:32 AM, therunner said:

I don't think it would force them to capitulate, I never said that. It would however be additional drain on their resources, and they are reliant on full supply chain (mining, transport, manufacture, transport) to fix it, which can be difficult to scale up. A single Windrunner could damage railway in hundreds of places in a single day (as per how far they can fly), engaging thousands of Scadrians to fix it. And then next day, they could do it again.

I don't think damaging non-essential infrastructure is going against Oaths of Windrunners, they don't control the choices of the civilians. You could make the same argument with any larger scale attack Windrunner could do, that civilians could get in the way.

It would be a pain in the back, but manageable, and damaged train rails would be reusable, so not that big of an waste. 
And it will be troublesome for Windrunners as they are all for protection of innocent, and not for endangering innocent, unarmed civilians with their actions. They might not want to do it, knowing they might cause death. And large scale attacks of Windrunners are aimed at army, not civilians. Even in RoW, Windrunners don't want to fight with regular Listeners. It's not about choice, it's about results of thier actions - Dalinar did choose to fight at the Tower, Elhokar did choose to remain the king - yet they still became those who cannot protect themself.

On 30.11.2022 at 9:32 AM, therunner said:

To prepare 0.3 ounces of Harmonium for explosion Wax required his laboratory set up, which was powered by a separate generator (if I remember right). And the explosion was not enough to destroy a room.

To scale it up to appreciable level, I don't think you could fit it in a rocket, they simply lack the technology for it.

If the Set could not scale it down, why could the rest?

But Set did made rockets that worked and could carry warheads, but not big enough. They didn't have time to make bigger rocket as Authonomy gave them deadline. The Set could not scale down bomb, as they couldn't - they wanted whole Elendel gone, and that was the power required to do it. They didn't have time to make rockets bigger to fit that bomb, they already made. So Set made it somehow, it worked, Scadrial have it now.

On 30.11.2022 at 9:32 AM, therunner said:

At most he would have to do it few times a week, not day. In Oathbringer perpendicularity opened just for a few moments charged all the spheres across a kilometer or so of terrain.
And even if so, they could move him (and the spheres) around to mitigate danger. Rosharans are more mobile then Scadrian forces.

Dalinar have to open perpendicularity few times during single battle. Now you got much more soldiers and supplies, more Radiants - he would have to do it more offten. Moving him around would be good idea, but logistical nightmare. And still he would be vulnerable in that time, and easily to locate.

On 30.11.2022 at 9:32 AM, therunner said:

It is war, it is dangerous.
The only way they could get cut off would be via Leeching grenades (or very brave Leecher, or one with F-Steel spike). Which can be mitigated if they travel in small groups and don't stay too close to each other.

Yes, it is. Or by forcing them to constatnly heal with heavy gunfire, artillery fire, AA fire, TNT-in-the-face fire, crushing them with heavy things one after another etc. They CAN be killed, and that's the whole point. Scadrial relies heavily on regular soldiers, and Roshar soly on Radiants, which there are not many - you make Radiants suffer heavy casualties, you win.

[StanLemon]

Something to keep in mind. Not counting the Skybreakers because we don't know how many of them there are, Roshar has less than a hundred Radiants of the other 9 Orders. Only 2 of those are 4th Ideal. Machine gun fire would eat through a Radiant's Stormlight to keep healing them. As such, Roshar can't really afford to just throw Radiants at the enemy in any way other than guerilla attacks. 

[Frustration]

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Hi guys, I'm back, did you miss me?

Yes I did, glad you're back.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Frequencies can be changed, messages can be coded, and Roshar can't use Radios without electricity.

Fair enough.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

But they are not in a war, but in trade relations. Elendel open sirspace to them. So no, it isn't, it's just show of force.

Taiwan and China are in trade relations, but when Chinese fighter jets and missiles routinely enter Taiwanese airspace they recognize it as a threat of invasion.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Because there is little plated Radiants and tasks must be done?

So why not drop boulders down on them with 4x lashings or more rather than trying to dive through it?

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Yes, but that's slower, and that is my point.

A little slower, but I don't think it's enough to make a difference.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

His spren denied him 4th ideal I think, from the conversation they had. But even you must admit, that Szeth is a special case, There won't be many like him.

Not many, but I there will be some definitely enough to be considered.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Behind a boat fully underwater? I guess you can, but the water resistance is 1000 times bigger so it would be much slower than in the air for Windrunners. Edgedancers could, but they would have to swim, so it would be extreamy slow. And how would they found it? So how many orders do you already include in that endeavor, it soon ended with everyone searching for big crystals and not fighting. You have to count pressure, darkness, vastnes of the oceans, and structures on the bottom. And if it was doable Fused would already recover Thrill.

Just three at most. Stoneward to get the stone to tell you where the gemheart is and to dig it up. Windrunner to moderate pressure and provide speed. Edgedanncer to remove friction.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

What bombs? TNT, grenades and artillery shells - yes, H-T bomb - no. It's urban warfare so there would be explosions in urban area. That's why you evacuate population or make sure they safe in predesignated places.

Evacuate Elendel which is where all of your factories are as well as being you economic capital? I think it would be easier to dig the fabrials out, but even if you did go with explosives you would have to warn large segments of you population, or at least explain that Wax is taking up residence upstairs so ignore any explosions.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

By hearing about Tukari in CR, or hearing news? He have his ways to be on time with news.

There are a lot of people in the CR, and why would Tukari stand out in particular? And his news would come only from The Sons of Honor, or Honorspren, neither of which would know about Ishar's honorblade being returned.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Aluminum doesn't have to touch a gem to have an effect - Kholinar's aluminum rook doesn't allow spanread to work - the sheer presence of aluminum might change the effects of fabrials. Using aluminum with fabrials is still a novelty. But I admitt, I'm not good at fabrials.

I said or surround. And I will note that it was only spanreeds whose other half wasn't inside the aluminum.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

Whatever it is that would steal the Nahel Bond - both would work I think? Duralumin for sure as it steals connection. Aluminum would steal Radiant powers so bond would be still there and they would be able to heal? With aluminum you could steal healing powers, so no healing for Radiants. Did I get that right? Or nicrosil to steal Stormlight if they don't have any more - no healing. Dead Radiant in all cases.

Aluminum destroys powers when used hemalurgically, but if the power comes from the Spren I don't think it would affect the Radiant at all. Nicrosil would take any stormlight they had in them, but not from the gems they carried. Duralumin steals Connection, so it could take the bond. I don't know if the Spren can break it until the spike either loses its charge or is placed in an individual, and even if they did I don't think the Radiant would live long enough to swear ideals again, so that one would work.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

Counter by leacher grenades and, when it's spoiling/getting hungry to fast they would notice, invastigate and discover what it was - they could then  counter that easily with more leacher grenades or changing storages on regular basis. And illusions won't give you the understanding of language and customs, guard's won't let anyone unauthorised into the storage, and suspicious activities will be noticeable.

Spoiled maybe, but with it being their first combat experience I don't think anyone would notice hunger, thought seekers could likely sense it. And illusions are more to hide the glow than anything. If you need to get into a storeroom, but an illusion around the guards head so they don't see/hear anything unusual.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

I don't know, maybe it's because several dozens light years away?

Aon Tia doesn't require more investiture the farther away you want to go. No one notes Oathgates taking different amounts of Stormlight depending on distance, despite noting that each extra person, the oath level of the radiant, and taking the entire platform rather than just the control tower make a difference. The Nex-im can teleport three times reguardless of how far they go. Why would this be the one time teleportation gets harder the more distance you cover?

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

On Roshar you got Highstorms being High investiture, on Scadrial there is no such a thing.

There's the Mists.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

And I'm sure that the Windrunners (mostly former slaves) would be very pleased to use gems with Honorsprens or other sapient sprens (slavery of sapient sprens) in them. That's totally aligned with thier second oath. No problem at all.

I'm not convinced that half-shards imprison radiant spren.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

Twice as powerful as cesium at what? Are estimating H-T reaction which is fission or H-water reaction which is pure chemical? And how does H-T fission work? It's not easily scalable to tell just 10 or 100 time more, esspecialy when Harmonium-water reaction is chemical, so not proportionate to fission/fusion one. There are no neutrons released (most likely, we don't know if harmornium or trellium are radioactive, or if one of them is "neutron generator", but no one describe them as hot or burning, and no on got radiation poisoning so no?), I would think that the fission is made by pure nuclar forces, not neutrons splitting atoms (as there is no moderator or neutron reflector placed to make explosion), therefore acting on all atoms at given rage, drastically increasing fission efficiency, compare to regular earthly fission. Or there can be something else going on, like Harmonium spliting up into Atium and Lerasium, and then immediately those two atoms combines back into Harmonium again with fusion reaction - which would make it work like a real thermonuclear bomb, explainig yield. Biggest non-fusion, pure fission, bomb had yield of 500kT, so Harmonium-Trellium reaction migh be a fussion one, to explain the yield.

I'm going by Cesium's reaction with water, now you are correct in saying that they might not scale accordingly but I think it would be odd if the amount of matter didn't scale proportionally with the explosion for both reactions. And even if the Harmonium/Trellium reaction is more than 10x more powerful the increase over the cesium reaction as well as the excessive matter I gave it should have been enough to balance out.

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

We don't know anything about god's metals, we need Cosmere periodic table with properties of god's metals etc, to properly understand how it word. We need Brandon to show us the math!

Agreed.

27 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Something to keep in mind. Not counting the Skybreakers because we don't know how many of them there are, Roshar has less than a hundred Radiants of the other 9 Orders. Only 2 of those are 4th Ideal. Machine gun fire would eat through a Radiant's Stormlight to keep healing them. As such, Roshar can't really afford to just throw Radiants at the enemy in any way other than guerilla attacks. 

Considering that Spren find rebonding quickly therapudic for losing their former radiant, along with their higher population, they can in fact afford to just throw radiants at the enemy.

[StanLemon]

Just now, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Considering that Spren find rebonding quickly therapudic for losing their former radiant, along with their higher population, they can in fact afford to just throw radiants at the enemy.

True, but RoW did explicitly state the problem with that. You still need to dedicate the time to train the new Radiant. Not as big of an issue with Windrunners because of their large number of squires who can immediately access the Order's Surges, but other Orders don't have it so easy

[alder24]

1 hour ago, StanLemon said:

Something to keep in mind. Not counting the Skybreakers because we don't know how many of them there are, Roshar has less than a hundred Radiants of the other 9 Orders. Only 2 of those are 4th Ideal. Machine gun fire would eat through a Radiant's Stormlight to keep healing them. As such, Roshar can't really afford to just throw Radiants at the enemy in any way other than guerilla attacks.

We assuming that in 10 years between RoW and TLM, Radiant's numbers will increase to hundreds or low thousands.

 

56 minutes ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Yes I did, glad you're back.

That's so nice, I'm glad to be back too

57 minutes ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Taiwan and China are in trade relations, but when Chinese fighter jets and missiles routinely enter Taiwanese airspace they recognize it as a threat of invasion

Taiwan and China are rather bad example, as both of them don't recognise each other as independent states, but as rebeled provinces. And even when airspace is invaded by single plane, they don't call up country-wide mobilisation, but dispatch interception planes. 

59 minutes ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

So why not drop boulders down on them with 4x lashings or more rather than trying to dive through it?

Because from the moment they saw Windrunners that glows in the air (multiple observation posts), they started to fire, that's creating smoke covering the view - Radiant's might not know where to aim stones at. And Scadrials might even further complicated the task if they use flashing lights, and dummy artillery to confuse Windrunners. 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Just three at most. Stoneward to get the stone to tell you where the gemheart is and to dig it up. Windrunner to moderate pressure and provide speed. Edgedanncer to remove friction.

And then they run out of the Stormlight and die in the middle of the dark ocean. Not a good idea. 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Evacuate Elendel which is where all of your factories are as well as being you economic capital? I think it would be easier to dig the fabrials out, but even if you did go with explosives you would have to warn large segments of you population, or at least explain that Wax is taking up residence upstairs so ignore any explosions.

It was about dealing with fabrials or just urban warfare? But yeah, for fabrials, explosions (not straight up carpet bombing entire city) would work, as leaching or diging them up. But Elendel is loosing it's economic dominance in the Basin, so it's still significant, but many factiories are already located outside of Elendel. In case of an siege, factories would be either moved, or defended with work still being done inside. And population in the Elendel would be conscripted to help defending city (seting traps, baricades, delivering messages/supplies, helping wounded etc) or moved to more secure places within the city. Or "It's 7 o'clock, time for daily explosives tsunami to destroy any pesky gems within the city - take cover"

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

There are a lot of people in the CR, and why would Tukari stand out in particular? And his news would come only from The Sons of Honor, or Honorspren, neither of which would know about Ishar's honorblade being returned.

There is but Tukari suddenly apearing in large number where they were absent befere, for smart Kalak who lived thousandes of years and know what is normal and what not, migh be clear indication, that Ishar, being now god of Tukar, reclaimed his Honorblade and is sending them into CR.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

I don't think the Radiant would live long enough to swear ideals again, so that one would work.

And that's the whole point of using hemalurgy.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Spoiled maybe, but with it being their first combat experience I don't think anyone would notice hunger, thought seekers could likely sense it. And illusions are more to hide the glow than anything. If you need to get into a storeroom, but an illusion around the guards head so they don't see/hear anything unusual.

Oh, I didn't even thought about seekers. But it would be noticable when whole army eats dinner, and then is hungry right after it. Seting up illusions is visable, they would notice that some Stormlight just got moved in front of their faces.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Why would this be the one time teleportation gets harder the more distance you cover?

It's not just about the distance, it's about people's perception of that far away land. But we've already agreed to assume that they will get there somehow, so that gives us nothing.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

There's the Mists.

That don't appear regularly, are sometimes stronger/weaker, and are not a source of power for regular Metalborns. 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

I'm not convinced that half-shards imprison radiant spren.

Taravangian mention in OB that sprens in half-shards are the one creating Radiands - OB chapter 100 - Coppermind:

Quote

It is currently unknown which spren is used in the creation of Half-shards, but Taravangian says in his conversation with Dalinar Kholin that the spren entrapped in the Half-shard could have graced a Knights Radiant.

 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

I'm going by Cesium's reaction with water, now you are correct in saying that they might not scale accordingly but I think it would be odd if the amount of matter didn't scale proportionally with the explosion for both reactions. And even if the Harmonium/Trellium reaction is more than 10x more powerful the increase over the cesium reaction as well as the excessive matter I gave it should have been enough to balance out.

I don't think it would scale proportionally with Fission reaction - by the time it explodes not every atom of fissable material will be hit by neutrons (they are fast neutrons, bad at being absorbed and spliting the atom), the chain reaction last less than 1 microsecond. From wikipedia about Little Boy (15kt):

Quote

The bomb contained 64 kg (141 lb) of enriched uranium. [...] Less than a kilogram of uranium underwent nuclear fission, and of this mass only 0.7 g (0.025 oz) was transformed into several forms of energy, mostly kinetic energy, but also heat and radiation

Comparing to Fat Man (21kt), plutonium bomb:

Quote

The result was the fission of about 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of the 6.19 kilograms (13.6 lb) of plutonium in the pit, i.e. of about 16% of the fissile material present. The detonation released the energy equivalent to the detonation of 21 kilotons of TNT. About 30% of the yield came from fission of the uranium tamper.

So it's not about the amount of mass, it's about how much of it undergoes fission (the same with fusion). As the temperature increases, it's less fission friendly, and ultimately because of temperature and blast ripping apart fissable material - the chain reaction stops.
And also there is critical mass - how much of fissable material is require in one place for it to go critical - it means, they can't just make it bigger as it will ultimately reach critical mass and go critical (not supercritical which is an explosion). Conventional explosion do not scale up to nuclear ones. The biggest non-nuclear man made explosion was 2.9 kt, Bejrut explosion was 0.5–1.2 kt (6th on the list). The first ever nuclear explosion (Trinity test) had yield of 25kT. And there still is Fusion left, which during first use - Castle Bravo test -  was severely underestimated and had a yield 2.5 bigger than predicted, which caused huge contamination, out of the pre-designated area , forcing US to evacuate citizens of nearby islands, and ultimatly killing 1 japanease fisherman (all on board suffered severe radiation poisoning).

1 hour ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Considering that Spren find rebonding quickly therapudic for losing their former radiant, along with their higher population, they can in fact afford to just throw radiants at the enemy.

Training is a thing, not every order has squires, and even they will run out. New Radiants needs to be trained, not thrown at enemy for meat grinding. In that way you would quickly ran out of Radiants and lose the war. In RoW year had passed, and Kaladin still thought that many of his original Brigde 4 members are not trained enough.

 

[StanLemon]

7 minutes ago, alder24 said:

We assuming that in 10 years between RoW and TLM, Radiant's numbers will increase to hundreds or low thousands. 

I don't think this is a reasonable assumption as SL 5 is still unknown and for all we know it could lead to Radiant stagnation for 10 years or any number of things. We need to base it on what's known about Roshar currently 

Edited December 1, 2022 by StanLemon

[alder24]

38 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

I don't think this is a reasonable assumption as SL 5 is still unknown and for all we know it could lead to Radiant stagnation for 10 years or any number of things. We need to base it on what's known about Roshar currently 

Yeah, but we can't know this right now untill we will get SA 5, and it is unfair to Roshar to force them to fight against someone 10 years further in the future.

So we assume progress will happen and we ignore any major plot point that could have happened like Duel of Champions, Shinovar shenanigans or BAM. Everyone at the end of RoW is still alive, factions are still as seen in RoW etc. It's the best we can to have this discussion without constantly arguing what could have happened in SA 5. We also assuming that both sides can get to the other planet, without specifying how. as that also still causing a lot of disagreement.

We are discussing what level of technological advancement they will reach in 10 years, or how numerous and skillful will Radiants become in that time - that is still hot topic.

[Frustration]

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Because from the moment they saw Windrunners that glows in the air (multiple observation posts), they started to fire, that's creating smoke covering the view - Radiant's might not know where to aim stones at. And Scadrials might even further complicated the task if they use flashing lights, and dummy artillery to confuse Windrunners.

Block line of sight from one position is possible, but from all angles at a distance of tens of thousands of feet would be neigh impossible.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

And then they run out of the Stormlight and die in the middle of the dark ocean. Not a good idea.

Those are all rather low stormlight intensive abilities, they could be down there for ours with just a few pouches. Not to mention they could quickly get to the surface and refuel if need be.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

There is but Tukari suddenly apearing in large number where they were absent befere, for smart Kalak who lived thousandes of years and know what is normal and what not, migh be clear indication, that Ishar, being now god of Tukar, reclaimed his Honorblade and is sending them into CR.

Why would they mention that to him? He's specifically asked to be told about ways to get off world, some more travelers from a country the Spren have never heard of isn't really of note.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Seting up illusions is visable, they would notice that some Stormlight just got moved in front of their faces.

It would be a small flash with nothing else out of the ordinary. If done when the mists are out I doubt they would even notice. But if they did notice they wouldn't be able to find anything wrong and would assume that their mind is playing tricks.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Taravangian mention in OB that sprens in half-shards are the one creating Radiands - OB chapter 100 - Coppermind:

Yeah, and he also said that someone stole a progression Honorblade from the shin, and was actively trying to screw with Dalinar.

Brandon has RAFO'd questions about whether they are a radiant spren or not, and I have several questions about how they would be able to capture a radiant spren in the first place

Spoiler

Questioner

Are half-shards made with Radiant spren?

Brandon Sanderson

RAFO! Good question!

Idaho Falls signing (July 21, 2018)

 

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

I don't think it would scale proportionally with Fission reaction - by the time it explodes not every atom of fissable material will be hit by neutrons (they are fast neutrons, bad at being absorbed and spliting the atom), the chain reaction last less than 1 microsecond. From wikipedia about Little Boy (15kt):

Comparing to Fat Man (21kt), plutonium bomb:

So it's not about the amount of mass, it's about how much of it undergoes fission (the same with fusion). As the temperature increases, it's less fission friendly, and ultimately because of temperature and blast ripping apart fissable material - the chain reaction stops.
And also there is critical mass - how much of fissable material is require in one place for it to go critical - it means, they can't just make it bigger as it will ultimately reach critical mass and go critical (not supercritical which is an explosion). Conventional explosion do not scale up to nuclear ones. The biggest non-nuclear man made explosion was 2.9 kt, Bejrut explosion was 0.5–1.2 kt (6th on the list). The first ever nuclear explosion (Trinity test) had yield of 25kT. And there still is Fusion left, which during first use - Castle Bravo test -  was severely underestimated and had a yield 2.5 bigger than predicted, which caused huge contamination, out of the pre-designated area , forcing US to evacuate citizens of nearby islands, and ultimatly killing 1 japanease fisherman (all on board suffered severe radiation poisoning).

The Set spent 6 years working on it, so they likely found the maximum efficency, so it should scale with mass at that point.

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Training is a thing, not every order has squires, and even they will run out. New Radiants needs to be trained, not thrown at enemy for meat grinding. In that way you would quickly ran out of Radiants and lose the war. In RoW year had passed, and Kaladin still thought that many of his original Brigde 4 members are not trained enough.

Kaladin won't accept that they are trained enough until casualties drop to zero, and probably not even then.

And you wouldn't put them through a metgrinder for the sake of it, you would only risk killing them when it gets you an advantage.

And all relevent orders, other than maybe Willshapers, Elsecallers, and Dustrbingers get Squires.

[bmcclure7]

On 11/28/2022 at 11:01 AM, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

@bmcclure7 I don't often do this, but this is my thread, and the premise is that Roshar is given the ten years to advance up to the point it is at during TLM. That is how this discussion has been going, and it will continue to do so, please stop arguing about this particular point.

Fine still don't think that's enough time to crack the spren problem, but whatever it's your thread. 

Massive victory for Rochar,  Scadrial is a nuclear wasteland or under Roshar control. 

With perhaps a few fullborn  fighting gurila war style. 

When the shoes on the other foot I stand by my first assessment roshar wins but just barely.

Alt ending

Stormfaither and dalinar are dead. Scadrial stops.

[StanLemon]

Conventional military power: Scadrial has the advantage in every category except manpower and supplies logistics. And by manpower, I'm not talking about number of men on a battlefield. Scadrial weapons make that almost meaningless. Despite their current Fabrials and Radiants, it's still effectively an industrial society against a renaissance society and there are plenty of historical examples of just how utterly one sided those are.

WMDs: I still have to give Scadrial the advantage on this. Even with limited Bavadinium, they still can create full on nukes, and even without that, Harmonium explosions can be devastatingly powerful. Sure Roshar has Anti-Investiture but the explosion in Navani's lab was clearly nowhere near as powerful as the one in Wax's. Additionally the explosive nature of Anti-Investiture reactions is dependent on the pressure of its storage space so it is capped by the gem they put it in. Maybe they can make nuke sized explosion potential with the largest possible gem hearts, but those are kind of very rare and they would need to use up two of them every time they wanted a nuke level explosion. 

Air superiority: mixed bag. Scadrial, particularly the south, has airship technology advanced enough to have dedicated warships whereas Roshar is in the very infancy of their airship technology. However, Roshar has Windrunners and Skybreakers giving them a manuverability advantage. 

Invested: Roshar has the advantage for sure. There are the advantages of just being a Radiant then there are the individuals Surges that each have a decent power of. However, a few caveats. Scadrial has far and away more Invested individuals, additionally some of Scadrial's Invested abilities are straight up anathema to Roshar. Leacher grenades in particular would be problematic for Radiants. 

Resources: I'm giving this to Scadrial. Sure Roshar has Soulcasting which simplifies their logistics a lot, but they still need people to hand make things. Blacksmiths to forge weapons and armor for example. Scadrial on the other hand is a fully industrial world. They could make a dozen guns in the time it takes a blacksmith to forge a single sword.

[alder24]

18 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Block line of sight from one position is possible, but from all angles at a distance of tens of thousands of feet would be neigh impossible.

But the smoke is also made on groud level from the barrels, but yes, it would help Windrunners, unless there were some obstacles like hills. And how much light would be needed to carry huge rocks with them high into the air and then drop them? That might be a problem, and not to mention accuracy.

18 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Why would they mention that to him? He's specifically asked to be told about ways to get off world, some more travelers from a country the Spren have never heard of isn't really of note.

For him it might be as he knows Ishar is involved. 

18 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

It would be a small flash with nothing else out of the ordinary. If done when the mists are out I doubt they would even notice. But if they did notice they wouldn't be able to find anything wrong and would assume that their mind is playing tricks.

Mists are not that often, and it wouldn't? Ilusions take time to form, Stormlight is moving out of Lightweaver to form in place - that would be visable. And you are talking about putting huge illusions in the most busy area in the whole camp - where, night or day, people constantly walking by or into the storages - you can't isolate them from the ilusions, guards would be alarmed immediately.

18 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Yeah, and he also said that someone stole a progression Honorblade from the shin, and was actively trying to screw with Dalinar.

Brandon has RAFO'd questions about whether they are a radiant spren or not, and I have several questions about how they would be able to capture a radiant spren in the first place

Yeah, but that was to Szeth to save his own skin, what he told to Dalinar is different, still not 100% sure that's true, but it might be, as Taravangian promised to share that knowledge, so we might as well take it as truth for now. But if he did not share that, you don't have much Half-Shards as they are not on your side anymore. Just a few of them.

18 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

The Set spent 6 years working on it, so they likely found the maximum efficency, so it should scale with mass at that point.

Again, that's not how fission works. 6 years for secret organisation with relatively low resources is still short, and impressive when they most likely didn't understand what they were really doing, but not enough to make it perfect - it took project manhattan 3 years to develop first nukes and they had backing of the US economy plus the most brilliant minds of 20th century. And still what they made was not at maximum efficiency - it was far from that. Going back to the biggest non-fussion bomb Ivy KIng (540 kt) detonated in 1952, used 60kg of Uranium. Little Boy used 64 kg of Uranium, 4kg more, and had only 15 kt yield. Ivy King was 36 times more powerful than Little Boy, with lower mass of fissable material. Fission doesn't scale up proportionally with the mass, it's not that easy.

The best way to estimate yield of Harmonium-water reaction is by looking at the damage it had done, as it's often done to estimate explosions. We know that some buildings in the docks (docks are outcite outer circle of the city, along the bay) collapsed, and windows around the docks were shattered, but not across whole city. We also know, that right before Wayne send Wax into the ocean, lights of the city were visable - that could be around 10 km away from the city, but before blast accrued ship would get some distance closer. So let's compare it to the Beirut explosion again, where hospital 1km away was so damaged, that it couldn't function at all, and people were being treated outside, and windows were shattered on the airport 10km away. I would say, that, depending on the distance from the ship to the docks, it could be as powerful as Beirut explosion (0.5-1.2 kt), or if closer, below 1kt but above 100 t - which is still very big for conventional, non-nuclear explosion. Anything around 1MT would shatter windows across the entire city. 

And how does Harmonium-water reaction work? We don't know. Wayne had only small bottle of water with him, and would that cause the entire Harmonium to react? I daubt it. And to another thing, that aligns with my estimats, is that Wax was not engulfed by fireball, and he was very close to it.

But no matter estimates of H-W reaction, it still tells us nothing about H-T reaction as it is not scalable, not proportionate and not comparable in any way, as they are two very diffrent type of reaction that can't be simply scaled up. 

18 hours ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

Kaladin won't accept that they are trained enough until casualties drop to zero, and probably not even then.

And you wouldn't put them through a metgrinder for the sake of it, you would only risk killing them when it gets you an advantage.

And all relevent orders, other than maybe Willshapers, Elsecallers, and Dustrbingers get Squires.

Yet Kaladin was right, and at the Heartstone battle he saved life of one of the brigde 4 crew by telling him to surrender the fight.

Killing them when it gets you an advantage? I would still rather train them properly for months before sending them to the frontlines.

Yes, to be fair we don't know which order has squires, but the Windrunners have the most of them. So Windrunners would be fine for longer time, when other Orders not so much when they start to lose the Radiants.

 

 

36 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Scadrial has the advantage in every category except manpower and supplies logistics.

I would say, that Scadiral's supplies logistics with extensive train network across and beyond Basin is pretty great, and would easily be better than Roshar's one on Scadrial.

36 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Sure Roshar has Anti-Investiture but the explosion in Navani's lab was clearly nowhere near as powerful as the one in Wax's

That's wrong, Anti-light and light is 100% pure energy realesed, like anti-matter and matter, they just used very small quantities of it. But Scadrials has rockets, Roshar don't.

36 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Air superiority: mixed bag. Scadrial, particularly the south, has airship technology advanced enough to have dedicated warships whereas Roshar is in the very infancy of their airship technology. However, Roshar has Windrunners and Skybreakers giving them a manuverability advantage. 

In our current discussion we assume that only Basin vs Urithiru coalition are fighting, as we don't really now what South or Fused/Singers are fully capable of. Just to make it simpler.

I'm mostly agree with you @StanLemon, invasion of Scadrial would be extremely hard for Roshar, and with more and more Radiants killed, they would lose the only one advantage they have, as Radiants are the only thing that makes this invasion possible in the first place, hard to counter, but still doable. And killing Dalinar alone would be the end for Roshar. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by alder24

[therunner]

I have few caveats

1 hour ago, StanLemon said:

Conventional military power: Scadrial has the advantage in every category except manpower and supplies logistics. And by manpower, I'm not talking about number of men on a battlefield. Scadrial weapons make that almost meaningless. Despite their current Fabrials and Radiants, it's still effectively an industrial society against a renaissance society and there are plenty of historical examples of just how utterly one sided those are.

Roshar while in some ways closer to renaissance, also leapfrogs ahead in some ways, e.g. Soulcasters allow for very different mode of production which really does not have a parallel, enabling one person to do work of hundreds of others (who would mine, transport, refine, manufacture).
Other than that, conventional (i.e. non-invested) military is Scadrial's strength.

1 hour ago, StanLemon said:

WMDs: I still have to give Scadrial the advantage on this. Even with limited Bavadinium, they still can create full on nukes, and even without that, Harmonium explosions can be devastatingly powerful. Sure Roshar has Anti-Investiture but the explosion in Navani's lab was clearly nowhere near as powerful as the one in Wax's. Additionally the explosive nature of Anti-Investiture reactions is dependent on the pressure of its storage space so it is capped by the gem they put it in. Maybe they can make nuke sized explosion potential with the largest possible gem hearts, but those are kind of very rare and they would need to use up two of them every time they wanted a nuke level explosion.

Anti-Investiture annihilation is more powerful than even just antimatter-matter annihilation (if the investiture/anti- is of the same Shard, https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15889  ).
And the very first anti-light explosion (in the lab which killed two people and ripped them into pieces, RoW 38) was not that far from the explosion Wax caused, despite it being only anti-light filled broam (i.e. 0.014 ounces) compared to Wax using 0.3 ounces of Harmonium. So, the explosions of anti-light are ~10x times more powerful per unit weight.
So you could make similarly sized nuke to whatever Set was trying to do with 10x less mass.
Chasmfiend gemhearts should be sufficient for nuke sized explosion.

1 hour ago, StanLemon said:

Air superiority: mixed bag. Scadrial, particularly the south, has airship technology advanced enough to have dedicated warships whereas Roshar is in the very infancy of their airship technology. However, Roshar has Windrunners and Skybreakers giving them a manuverability advantage.

Roshar has had 10 years to refine their aircraft by the time of TLM, and they did go from levitating platforms to aircraft which can travel the span of continent in under a year, and to gloves enabling personal flight (albeit very limited).
I would say that Malwish aircraft would still be bit more advanced, but not by such a great margin, and additionally Malwish craft is reliant on the entire craft being lighter than air, which is a big weakness.

1 hour ago, StanLemon said:

Invested: Roshar has the advantage for sure. There are the advantages of just being a Radiant then there are the individuals Surges that each have a decent power of. However, a few caveats. Scadrial has far and away more Invested individuals, additionally some of Scadrial's Invested abilities are straight up anathema to Roshar. Leacher grenades in particular would be problematic for Radiants.

Roshar has more invested individuals, Singers with Forms of power are comparable to Mistings and Ferrings, and there is a lot of those. Though if we don't consider united Roshar they are not active participants.
For Radiants, their numbers are growing rapidly, they went from ~10 individuals to nearly a hundred in a year. And then there are few hundred of squires on top of that.
And this is while spren are refusing to bond due to events of Recreance, resulting in a bottleneck. Following RoW this bottleneck was at least partially removed.

If this progress holds (but saturates), then in 10 years time there are low thousands of Radiants, and high thousands of squires on top of that. There are also more spren alive then ever before, so the potential ceiling on Radiant numbers is higher than it was previously (when individual Orders could already achieve low thousands).
So by TLM Roshar can have ~10 000 Surgebinders (squires and Radiants together) which is the same order of magnitude as Scadrial has Mistings and Ferrings (Elendel Basin has ~ 20 000 ).

Also I would say the leeching and A-Aluminum grenades are the only direct counter to Rosharan Invested Arts, the rest not really.
And Roshar has technologies which would work in similar fashion (i.e. suppressor fabrials) so in this sense Rosharan fabrials are anathema to Scadrians. (though they would require tuning first to ensure they block the proper Pure Tone, or however they exactly function).

1 hour ago, StanLemon said:

Resources: I'm giving this to Scadrial. Sure Roshar has Soulcasting which simplifies their logistics a lot, but they still need people to hand make things. Blacksmiths to forge weapons and armor for example. Scadrial on the other hand is a fully industrial world. They could make a dozen guns in the time it takes a blacksmith to forge a single sword.

Roshar is partially getting around this by heavily leveraging Soulcasting as you mention, i.e. to equip rank and file they would not have blacksmith forge swords and armor, but would shape it out wood or wax, and then Soulcast it to metal. While it does not match speed of factories Scadrial has, it does reduce the time heavily compared to purely 'earth-based' manufacturing techniques.

Edited December 2, 2022 by therunner