Long Game 59: Shadows and Spikes

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

11 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I am pretty sure Brass is Rioter. Am I wrong? Because that would be incredibly stupid to risk.

No.

You have my utmost respect, but I don't even slightly believe you.

I didn't foresee the particulars, but I very much did expect this.

To everyone else:

• Independent of anything regarding Aman's claim, I arrived at legitimate suspicions of Aman by two completely separate means of analysis. That alone is probably sufficient grounds to lynch him, and nothing has been said so far that invalidates any of it.
• The direct response to my accusation was a maneuver that would have cleared Aman. Do you truly believe this to be coincidence?
  • Not only that, but he was continually supporting suspicions against me until I delivered my accusation. If he had known I was a villager, why would he keep bringing up lynching me? In the very least, he would have certainly backed off quietly on those suspicions.
  • ...and then there is the fact that his scan claim was incorrect, which, even if you believe his excuse might be true, you must acknowledge is still significantly fishy.
• Aman is now presenting a source of reasonable doubt. I am willing to listen to reasonable doubt, but frankly, the fact that it is coming from Aman is likely reason to do everything in our power to kill him and not look back.
  • That may sound extreme, but, is it not justified? There are some for whom slipping the noose like this is a big huge red flag, and Aman and Alvron are foremost in that group. I will have cause to seriously reconsider my approach if I am wrong about this, but, I don't think it's going to happen.

For these reasons, it might not be certain that Aman is evil, but I sincerely do believe that there is overwhelming evidence for it. I don't usually go all-in on something like this. Subtlety really isn't my forte, and I don't honestly expect that I can be more persuasive than Aman, but I am telling you with as much emphasis as I how, because then at least I will know I did everything that I could.

 

9 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I don't see how elim!Aman would just "guess" a role like that, with the absence of PMs and all that. It's a pretty big slip.

Aman, of either alignment, tends to be pretty confident in his ability to guess roles.

And for good reason. He's really good at it.

I don't know for sure, but I know I wasn't trying that hard to keep my role secret, and I can think of two things that might have given it away:

1. Firstly, this post:

Quote

On the bright side, we now have evidence of at least two village vote manipulators (looking at the rules, the inquisitor could not have soothed the vote off of Rath), which means Fura's calculations may not be as bleak as they originally seemed. On the less-than-bright side, one of them is now dead.

I already said I haven't really read the rules all that closely, so the fact that I already knew exactly how the soother/rioter mechanics worked is potentially a pretty big tell. Also, there is the fact that I am focusing inordinately on the role of vote manipulators in the game in the first place.

2. Secondly, the fact that I insisted we "pretended to have a lynch". This action makes a lot more sense in light of the fact that I had control over more votes than just my own as a way to cancel a D1 lynch last-second.

Those are what I could think of. I have no idea if I would have been able to piece it together, but the signs were there.

 

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I began College again this week

Settling into college again as well. Regardless of my doing my darnedest to kill you in this game, I wish you good luck 

Edited September 6, 2019 by DrakeMarshmallow

[Cicada]

Hm. I think Drake makes a good point, but I'm not changing my vote just yet. Perhaps if Aman is an elim, they're clearing Drake in preparation for a conversion.

[CadCom he/him]

On 9/5/2019 at 1:41 PM, Amanuensis said:

I like how you included me twice

I'm no longer suspicious of Drake since it appears he wasn't online after Venture made it clear he had a role.

Leaves my remaining suspects as Stick, Rath, Fura and Devotary. No particular order, but I think I would like Stick dead the most (nothing personal).

ED1T:

Forgot CadCom. Need to analyze him.

ED2T:

Nevermind on the Drake thing. He was online two hours ago, but didnt post. Did anyone happen to see him viewing the thread?

 

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Not only that, but he was continually supporting suspicions against me until I delivered my accusation. If he had known I was a villager, why would he keep bringing up lynching me? In the very least, he would have certainly backed off quietly on those suspicions.

Sorry. These quotes are out of order, but on mobile now, and I don't want to try to fix them. 

Anyway. It seems very early in the cycle Aman backed up on his suspicion of you. I also dont really understand the reason behind him removing the suspicion, unless explained by a scan. 

Not necessarily the most convincing argument, but something. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

It seems very early in the cycle Aman backed up on his suspicion of you. I also dont really understand the reason behind him removing the suspicion, unless explained by a scan.

Please take note of Aman's edit in the post you quoted, in which he both rescinded the statement you are centering your argument on and doubled down on suspecting me.

 

Quote

Not necessarily the most convincing argument, but something.

Forgive me if I am off base here, but reading this, I suspect that basically, you want Aman to be good. Because, you are stretching to provide an argument that by your own admission, doesn't actually really leave you very convinced. Which, I can definitely relate to, having done that more often than I care to admit.

Now, I might be wrong about you, in which case you may freely disregard everything I am saying, but, if I am right: please pay attention to that dissonance and why it exists. When things don't feel like they add up, it's usually because they don't.

Any one of the reasons to suspect Aman can and are being explained away, but there are also kind of a lot of them, not to mention that some of them haven't really been considered.

Edited September 7, 2019 by DrakeMarshmallow

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Also, because I apparently forgot: Aman.

[Cicada]

Considering all the evidence, I think the most sensible choice is Amanuensis. The explanations haven't been especially satisfactory, Drake is right. I think the idea that Aman is trying to self-clear and clear a potential convert is most plausible, because of course I'd think that- I came up with it.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

I don't know what to think.  Aman, I guess. I don't think I'm ever going to stop being suspicious of them after what they pulled in LG56...

[CadCom he/him]

My reasons for retracting my vote on Amanuensis are those I previously explained. The reasons I also previously explained are my reasons for my vote on devotary.

That last argument was not the core of my reasoning. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Any one of the reasons to suspect Aman can and are being explained away, but there are also kind of a lot of them, not to mention that some of them haven't really been considered.

If Aman is evil, then we don't have any Seekers, is the big point. Since we do essentially win by lynching the Inquisitor today, any other Seekers really should have claimed by now.

[Sart he/him]

Aman (3): DrakeMarhsall, Cicada, Xinoehp
Stick (1): Aman

Well now, this is interesting. Our friend Aman has claimed to be a Seeker, but he's gotten his results wrong. He of course is claiming that he was drunk. While it is true that an Inquisitor appearing is reason for drinking, his explanation leaves a lot to be desired. Namely, that he edited back in suspicion of Drake to his first post of the day. Now, it is possible that Aman is telling the truth. However, with so much of the discussion surrounding him, I believe it is in our best interest to lynch Aman.

[shanerockes]

Sorry about my lack of presence the past few days. I worked today for 10 hours today and I have just barely had time to catch up. I can see why there is suspicions on me because of the lack of activity but that could also mean that I am not the elim because there was a night kill. I'm not saying you have to believe what I say about that but it's just a thought. I do have the next couple days off so I'll be able to participate more cuz of that. From what I have read, I think there is enough evidence in my eyes that I will put a vote onto Aman. I don't really have time to go into details cuz I'm tired but my vote will more than likely stay there.

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Please take note of Aman's edit in the post you quoted, in which he both rescinded the statement you are centering your argument on and doubled down on suspecting me.

 

Forgive me if I am off base here, but reading this, I suspect that basically, you want Aman to be good. Because, you are stretching to provide an argument that by your own admission, doesn't actually really leave you very convinced. Which, I can definitely relate to, having done that more often than I care to admit.

Now, I might be wrong about you, in which case you may freely disregard everything I am saying, but, if I am right: please pay attention to that dissonance and why it exists. When things don't feel like they add up, it's usually because they don't.

Any one of the reasons to suspect Aman can and are being explained away, but there are also kind of a lot of them, not to mention that some of them haven't really been considered.

I did not double down on suspecting you. That's exactly why I told everyone my Seeker result in the thread. Saying you weren't online was my attempt to dropping my suspicion of you without having to reveal it, but then I looked at your profile and realized I was wrong. I just asked if anyone saw you viewing the thread to hopefully add to your defense.

I do find it incredibly amusing that you'd rather believe that I'm lying about being a Seeker than believe I made an honest mistake while drinking. As you can see above, this is twice this game I've said something without double checking the facts. Brass being Rioter and you not being online because you didn't post at the end of the cycle. Not to mention I have a history of drunk-posting.

Honestly you're being a bit stubborn and tunneling, but if you really want to cost the village the game, go for it  my hands are clean.

 

Also, Stick, it is mostly PoE, but also your repeated use of inquizyboi. It's silly, I know, but the nickname triggered some gut vibes. If it's not you, I think it's probably CadCom, Sart, or Devotary, and up until Sart's last post, I was mostly leaning village on him too.

ED1T:

@DrakeMarshmallow, before I forget. Fura asked what hint you're talking about in your post. I have absolutely no idea what you were referring to, and would like to remind everyone I've only read most posts once / have done no analysis.

ED2T:

From the rules:

Quote

Seeker - Can choose a player and learn all metals that their role is associated with, if any. This does not reveal their alignment or the nature of their metallic art. If someone is spiked with bronze, only the Allomantic metal that they stole will be revealed. If someone is spiked with Atium, the metal associated with the role they ended up receiving will be revealed. (Night) 

As the rule states, Seeker's are told metals, not roles. Why is it so hard to believe I confused Brass with Zinc? XD

To restate something Devotary pointed out, there's a very high likelihood of a Seeker being in the game, and since no one has counter claimed, logic dictates I am being honest.

 

Edited September 7, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Again, I believe Aman. He does have a history of occasional drunk posting, and this is a mistake I think likely to occur from being drunk. Heck, I confuse metals all the time. The only reason I know Brass and Zinc is because Zinc is my favorite metal.

I dont believe Inquiziboi is AI from Stick, but I got a village read from her response to my questions to her D1. 

Some of Devotary's recent posts I think were strange, but I'd need to reread them before voting on her.

I dont really have a read of Sart...

CadCom, again, some strange vibes. He's been putting effort in though so... idk...

I'm not going to vote as I'm presenting at a comic con today, and shouldnt be on my phone.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm going to change my vote from Stick to Sart. Specifically because of the complete 180 from this:

On 9/6/2019 at 1:36 AM, Sart said:

Alright, we'd need Drake to confirm, but it's a gutsy claim to make if Aman was the Inquisitor. Since PMs aren't open this game, Drake's role (if he has that role) couldn't leak through that method. If Aman was guessing as the Inquisitor, I doubt he would guess Rioter, since that role had already been killed. @DrakeMarshmallow please confirm your role.

Okay, so if we assume that Drake is a Rioter, and Aman is a Seeker, that limits the suspect pool. I'm going to hesitantly say that @Rathmaskal is probably a Soother, but I would also like confirmation on that one.

So the remaining suspect pool is:
Furamirionind, Cicada, Xinoehp512, Stick, Cadmium Compounder, Shanerockes, Devotary of Spontaneity, Sart

to this:

10 hours ago, Sart said:

Aman (3): DrakeMarhsall, Cicada, Xinoehp
Stick (1): Aman

Well now, this is interesting. Our friend Aman has claimed to be a Seeker, but he's gotten his results wrong. He of course is claiming that he was drunk. While it is true that an Inquisitor appearing is reason for drinking, his explanation leaves a lot to be desired. Namely, that he edited back in suspicion of Drake to his first post of the day. Now, it is possible that Aman is telling the truth. However, with so much of the discussion surrounding him, I believe it is in our best interest to lynch Aman.

I don't really understand the mindset here. In the first, Sart gives me the benefit of the doubt when I'd already posted the "evidence" he uses in the second (which says the complete opposite of what people are saying. It's clear I was looking for an excuse to clear Drake.) I find both of these stances to be very opportunistic.

ED1T:

Not to mention in the first post he gives great evidence for why I'm not lying.

Edited September 7, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

17 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

That may sound extreme, but, is it not justified? There are some for whom slipping the noose like this is a big huge red flag, and Aman and Alvron are foremost in that group. I will have cause to seriously reconsider my approach if I am wrong about this, but, I don't think it's going to happen.

Oh man, just got a flashback from the Sixth of the Dusk game where Alv made a mistake about something regarding the rules and despite most people saying that was very sus I kept insisting on how elim!Alv would have no incentive in making such an error purposefully...And then I got lynched...and Alv turned out to be evil...Is this deja vu?  

17 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Aman, of either alignment, tends to be pretty confident in his ability to guess roles.

And for good reason. He's really good at it.

I don't know for sure, but I know I wasn't trying that hard to keep my role secret, and I can think of two things that might have given it away:

1. Firstly, this post:

Quote

On the bright side, we now have evidence of at least two village vote manipulators (looking at the rules, the inquisitor could not have soothed the vote off of Rath), which means Fura's calculations may not be as bleak as they originally seemed. On the less-than-bright side, one of them is now dead.

I already said I haven't really read the rules all that closely, so the fact that I already knew exactly how the soother/rioter mechanics worked is potentially a pretty big tell. Also, there is the fact that I am focusing inordinately on the role of vote manipulators in the game in the first place.

2. Secondly, the fact that I insisted we "pretended to have a lynch". This action makes a lot more sense in light of the fact that I had control over more votes than just my own as a way to cancel a D1 lynch last-second.

Those are what I could think of. I have no idea if I would have been able to piece it together, but the signs were there.

I mean, I guess it's possible 

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Also, Stick, it is mostly PoE, but also your repeated use of inquizyboi. It's silly, I know, but the nickname triggered some gut vibes

I...uhh xD

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So it looks like we're betting everything on the assumption that there is no Seeker. If that's true and Aman is evil, we probably win here. If Aman is the Seeker, lynching him is essentially game over unless the Seer can consistently roleblock the Inquisitor without knowing who it is. I am willing to believe that Inquisitor!Aman would false-claim Seeker on the hopes that there aren't any, though in LG56 Aman was expendable and the Inquisitor very much is not until they make a conversion. I am not willing to believe that a Seeker would willingly throw the game by not counterclaiming. Every single player has had the opportunity to claim Seeker and nobody has done so. Is this a gamble we're willing to take?

Drake can't be evil, and we have not received a Coinshot counterclaim so Cicada should be village(While Coinshot is useful for preventing e.g. convert!Drake from winning at 2-1, I would still claim Coinshot if I was one). If Aman flips village Seeker, any of the other votes are valid Seer targets.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Honestly you're being a bit stubborn and tunneling, but if you really want to cost the village the game, go for it  my hands are clean.

If I am wrong, I am sorry. The fact that I am fairly certain about this doesn’t necessarily mean I have not given the alternatives fair consideration, though.

If you are a villager, today’s lynch won’t cost the village the game, I’m pretty sure. It’ll be using up our last possible mislynch, which is a not insignificant setback, but also not game over.

Do you at least acknowledge that incorrectly naming my role is fairly suspicious, though? Because I wouldn’t honestly expect a villager to fight so hard against legitimately fairly incriminating evidence that fell against them just due to bad luck.

Edited September 7, 2019 by DrakeMarshmallow
Weird spacing

[Lumgol she/her]

The Day is now over! Night 2 will be up shortly.

[Lumgol she/her]

Thank you so much to @Butt Ad Venture for tonight's writeup!

---

Another day had passed, a day of bolted doors and distrust. A day where the world got a little bit closer to death. A day where hope got an inch closer to death. Lord Kelsier said hope could never die. He lied. Hope was as good as dead.

Impossibly, a few people still fought. They fought, and they died. Others questioned whether it would ever end. But in the end they fought, they all fought, and they all kept hope alive.

The hope compelled someone to speak up. He shared his knowledge; another said he was wrong. And...the hope got him lynched. Hope had turned on them. Kelsier was wrong. Hope killed them. Kelsier had doomed them. With hope destroying all they fought for, why did anyone still hold on?

---

Night 2 has begun! The turn will end on Sunday, September 8, at 12:30 PM PDT.

Amanuensis was lynched! He was a Village Seeker.

Vote count:
Aman (5)
Devotary (1)
Sart (0)

Here are the rules.

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Furamirionind, as A Character

2. Cicada, as Ada

3. Xinoehp512, as Demmanu

4. DrakeMarshmallow, as Tersin Forrelken

5. Stick

6. CadCom, as Tom

7. Rathmaskal, as Rath the Rapper

8. Shanerockes

9. Butt Ad Venture, as Cornelius Steel (Smoker)

10. Devotary of Spontaneity, as Moud

11. Amanuensis, as Octun Renaud (Seeker)

12. Sart, as Sari

13. Snipexe (Rioter)

 

[Stick. she/her]

Ouch

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Ouch

^

[CadCom he/him]

This probably hurts drake more than it hurts anyone else, because of his push for the lynch. I'm gonna try to go through in some detail where my suspicions lie, but I might have to wait until the day cycle, because I've got a crazy weekend. 

edit: By hurt drake, I mean he feels the most pain from it, not that he is now proven village, as he seems to very obviously be a soother from my perspective. 

Edited September 7, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

This probably hurts drake more than it hurts anyone else, because of his push for the lynch. I'm gonna try to go through in some detail where my suspicions lie, but I might have to wait until the day cycle, because I've got a crazy weekend. 

edit: By hurt drake, I mean he feels the most pain from it, not that he is now proven village, as he seems to very obviously be a soother from my perspective. 

It is debatable whether this outcome is more harmful to me than it is for Aman, but otherwise you are correct 

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Drake is still village.

I'm still at comic con.

Look at Stick and CadCom.

Idk about Devotary. But I'll give her benifit of doubt for now.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Double posting as I feel like it has been a year since I last posted.

---

@Lumgol Is the vote on Devotary supposed to be there? Can Rioters Riot the votes of people who didn't vote?
The vote on Sart seems to have been Soothed. Does anyone want to claim responsibility for that?

---

Ok, I read what happened EoD2 and... well...

First, Aman is right, Sart seems sus for that post. Also:

@DrakeMarshmallow:

Quote

If I am wrong, I am sorry. The fact that I am fairly certain about this doesn’t necessarily mean I have not given the alternatives fair consideration, though.

If you are a villager, today’s lynch won’t cost the village the game, I’m pretty sure. It’ll be using up our last possible mislynch, which is a not insignificant setback, but also not game over.

Do you at least acknowledge that incorrectly naming my role is fairly suspicious, though? Because I wouldn’t honestly expect a villager to fight so hard against legitimately fairly incriminating evidence that fell against them just due to bad luck.

I would 100% try to lynch you over this post if you weren't confirmed to not be the inquisitor. I'm not trying to beat you into the ground for a mislynch, but I do take issue with some of the things you say here. Let's go through in order:

You were pushing for his lynch hard. Maybe you internally considered he was village, but your argument was founded on the assumption that you can just ignore anything that comes out of Aman's mouth, which regardless of who it is, even Aman, is a dangerous attitude. I would see this as a lack of caring about whether or not you are actually lynching an Inquisitor. "Aman is a dangerous player, and should be killed" is something that doesn't help anyone except the Inquisitor.

You are correct, Aman getting lynched *doesn't* cost the village the game. *However*, we did just lose one of our power roles. So basically, Aman was the only way we could clear 100% someone of being an Inquisitor. Now all we have is the lynch. This makes our chances at a good lynch significantly less, as he would have scanned someone in the POE. 

I mean, yes, it is. But it is not as suspicious as you made it out to be. I don't think your reasoning and suspicion on him was going to get him lynched. I village read him at the very least, and am equally as vocal in thread as you.
And to address your second part, the village is really close to losing on D2. Why would a villager not fight hard for their survival? In most games, we have time before we have to hit an elim, but in a game where there is no time, good villagers will be trying hard not to get lynched, because if they do, chances of losing go drastically up.

---

When reading Aman, and several other players this game, instead of just thinking about their alignment, I have also been thinking about, "given this player is aware of 'x', 'y', and 'z', what do I think they would do if village vs. evil?
This is why I was willing to give Aman a soft village read on D1 purely for not voting. Do I think he wouldn't vote as an elim? possibly... But given the past couple games, I think as a villager in this situation, 9/10 times he wouldn't vote, where as an elim, it would be significantly less.

I learned to do that from you.

---

I'm tired, and didn't event expect to type that much in response to the above post so... I may not do a full reads list, we'll see.

1. Furamirionind - Village
Me, hi.

2. Cicada - Village
Not going to reanalyze her posts right now, but I recall a village mindset.

3. Xinoehp512 - Village
Xino claimed to be trying, but didn't show back up. I would love to help Xino understand better what is going on, but if he was the Inquisitor, I would expect him to be involved in thread to give the village a chance. As it is, even if Xino is the Inquisitor, lynching him is still a waste, and we lost once he was picked as Inquisitor. so I'll read him as village.

4. DrakeMarshmallow - Village
Mechanically cleared from being Inquisitor

5. Stick - Slight village
Ok, this is all of the top of my head, so I might need to do another reads list on D3 once my comic con is over...
But Stick has been sounding like herself as village. I haven't played enough with her to really get a feel for her playstyle, but in LGs55 and 56, she tried harder to blend in I think. Her speaking style this game seems much more like a MR/QF I spectated over the summer where she was village.
So for now, she is slight village, but this could go as low as neutral on a reread.

6. CadCom - Neutral
I had CadCom as village earlier on, but I don't remember why...
I also had some of CadCom's posts ring alarm bells in my head, but I also don't remember why.
CadCom will be the first I ISO after my comic con.

7. Rathmaskal - Village
I believe I am putting Rath as village. His elim and village playstyle seem quite distinct to me. In essence, it's mostly about how he seems to focus much more on winning and good gameplay as an elim, whereas village is just to have fun.

8. Shanerockes - Village
Similar to Xino. Basically I'm only putting as village as lynching them is a waste of our last lynch, and if they are evil, we have already lost. In that case, why bother considering them.

10. Devotary of Spontaneity - Village
While I normally don't get a village impression from Devotary, I seem to recall it happening once before, and her actually being village. I think generally she has been level headed and logical this game... which... I mean... Is just pretty much the usual...
I will be ISOing her early as well to double check my read, but i don't want to spend too much time on her, as I think it to be a waste.

12. Sart - Elim
Aman caught a good discrepancy in what Sart was saying, in addition the fact he had so many people in his POE makes me feel like he wasn't actually taking any players out of his POE.  Also, why did he put himself in the POE? Lol!

@Sart