Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[STINK]

^ No bias whatsoever

[DeathClutch19]

You need all three night actions? Every night? I would think that you could find the time to spare an action one night, if you value heiring so much. Whatever.

      What? Why wouldn't a Ghostblood make PMs? (Obviously, it depends on the Ghostblood, but if you're giving your Spanreed away I'm assuming you're giving it to someone who will use it.)

   That's what makes me suspect that the R&R players have those kills. Better to use the items before they die than to wait until you have a solid suspicion, because you might not survive that long. If I had a Shardblade, I probably would've killed someone N1. (Because I still feel bad about never using my kill role in QF12...)

 

What a surprise...

Well I could but I don't want to. Also I would rather my heir be public knowldege to those that wish to kill me, just so they know half of my items will not be going to them. Honestly I think you guys  are reading into this too much. It's not my fault my heir died N1. I would have vote if this were not the case. 

[Elbereth]

Having a publicly known heir just makes it easier on the thief and Ghostbloods to get the items they want. And if the heir is smart and gives those items away, what's the point of giving them to your heir in the first place?

[Macen]

Unless you declare an heir, then swap your heir that night, so the GB think they know where your items are going...

[AliasSheep]

Well I could but I don't want to. Also I would rather my heir be public knowldege to those that wish to kill me, just so they know half of my items will not be going to them. Honestly I think you guys  are reading into this too much. It's not my fault my heir died N1. I would have vote if this were not the case. 

 

In addition, if you were using your first slot, you'd most likely be doing a Shardblade or Grandbow.  Unless you wanted to make a random potshot at a vaguely suspicious player, you'd need more information than seems to be available to use the Pain Knife or Soulcaster.

[STINK]

Tbh, I think you're all jumping on this Heir thing too much.

 

Like, to me, you're all going 'Wow this is suspicious cause it won't take one of your night actions' but to the eliminators (and I think DC said this already) it's more of a 'Well killing him is kinda weird, as we know he has a heir' (and that is if he even has items!)

 

So yeah, one of the people that so far have said it is sus is probably evil.

[DeathClutch19]

Tbh, I think you're all jumping on this Heir thing too much.

Like, to me, you're all going 'Wow this is suspicious cause it won't take one of your night actions' but to the eliminators (and I think DC said this already) it's more of a 'Well killing him is kinda weird, as we know he has a heir' (and that is if he even has items!)

So yeah, one of the people that so far have said it is sus is probably evil.

Thank you! People I declared an heir get over it, if you think I'm evil vote for me but I'm done defending myself over and over

[Kynedath]

It might just be my imagination, but that seemed like you were grabbing an opportunity given to you by STINK.

 

Also, you have made yourself a target by insinuating that you have three items. Does that not make your point about making yourself less of a target invalid?

 

EDIT: Ignore the first sentence. I just looked back at what STINK was talking about. I missed it earlier, sorry.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Kynedath

[STINK]

Hey Kynedath, you a fan of IKYK?

[Kynedath]

Not really, but I haven't actually been a part of one. Just witnessed one.

[Macen]

Stink, I wanna know!

I always feel left out... 

[AliasSheep]

Thank you! People I declared an heir get over it, if you think I'm evil vote for me but I'm done defending myself over and over

I was more interested in why you'd be needing a T1A slot free, but no mind now it seems.

Edited April 26, 2016 by AliasSheep

[STINK]

Not really, but I haven't actually been a part of one. Just witnessed one.

If I've got this right, you're witnessing another one. I mean, DC could have 3 items, which is why he has the heir. Or, DC could have no items, and this is all a bluff.

Then it's up to the eliminators to either waste a kill or get some items to themselves and the Heir.

[Kynedath]

If I've got this right, you're witnessing another one. I mean, DC could have 3 items, which is why he has the heir. Or, DC could have no items, and this is all a bluff.

Then it's up to the eliminators to either waste a kill or get some items to themselves and the Heir.

I see. I am going to run a few numbers quickly.

 

Four options

1. DC has items and eliminators call him out and attack him
2. DC has items and eliminators do not call him out
3. DC does not have items and eliminators do not call him out
4. DC does not have items and eliminators call him out and attack him

Four outcomes

1. Eliminators waste a kill trying to kill him - Positive
2. Eliminators attack someone else - Negative
3. Eliminators attack someone else - Negative
4. Eliminators waste a turn killing someone with little to no resources helpful to the village - Positive (from a utilitarian stance)

We therefore have a 50% chance of a good outcome. Unless we take into account the eliminators.

The eliminators have two options

1. Don't attack DC
2. Attack DC

Option one has an unknowable amount of possible outcomes, making it a gamble.

Option two has two possibilities

1. DC has items to protect himself and help the village - Negative (for the eliminators)
2. DC doesn't have items to protect himself and help the village - Negative (but with the bonus of kiling DC)
3. DC has items to help the village but not protect himself - Positive
4. DC has items to protect himself but not help the village - Negative

There is a 25% chance that the eliminators will profit while trying to kill DC. They will undoubtedly have other leads to follow and more opportunities to kill him, making the probability very low that they will attack him, leading to the initial possibilities of them killing other players.

 

Overall, this plan has a very low probability of turning out in our favor, making me wonder why DC wanted this to happen.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Kynedath

[Nyali]

Since there's a lot of talking of heirings here, I have a small request to make. Could everyone please be careful to mark your heirings in purple and not accidentally put them in, say, red? I'm not really fond of dealing with red heirings.

 

 

 

 

... sorry, couldn't resist.

[DeathClutch19]

I see. I am going to run a few numbers quickly.

Four options

• DC has items and eliminators call him out and attack him
• DC has items and eliminators do not call him out
• DC does not have items and eliminators do not call him out
• DC does not have items and eliminators call him out and attack him

Four outcomes

• Eliminators waste a kill trying to kill him - Positive
• Eliminators attack someone else - Negative
• Eliminators attack someone else - Negative
• Eliminators waste a turn killing someone with little to no resources helpful to the village - Positive (from a utilitarian stance)

We therefore have a 50% chance of a good outcome. Unless we take into account the eliminators.

The eliminators have two options

• Don't attack DC
• Attack DC

Option one has an unknowable amount of possible outcomes, making it a gamble.

Option two has two possibilities

• DC has items to protect himself and help the village - Negative (for the eliminators)
• DC doesn't have items to protect himself and help the village - Negative (but with the bonus of kiling DC)
• DC has items to help the village but not protect himself - Positive
• DC has items to protect himself but not help the village - Negative

There is a 25% chance that the eliminators will profit while trying to kill DC. They will undoubtedly have other leads to follow and more opportunities to kill him, making the probability very low that they will attack him, leading to the initial possibilities of them killing other players.

Overall, this plan has a very low probability of turning out in our favor, making me wonder why DC wanted this to happen.

I didn't want this to happen, they just kept questioning me on why I picked an heir instead of voting and I told them.

[AliasSheep]

Since there's a lot of talking of heirings here, I have a small request to make. Could everyone please be careful to mark your heirings in purple and not accidentally put them in, say, red? I'm not really fond of dealing with red heirings.

 

 

 

 

... sorry, couldn't resist.

*claps*

 

 

I didn't want this to happen, they just kept questioning me on why I picked an heir instead of voting and I told them.

Heiring would mean you're anticipating it though, I think.

[Kynedath]

Heiring would mean you're anticipating it though, I think.

Not quite. I feel like he was leading the conversation in that direction, but it was actually STINK who put out the idea of an IKYK, so I am inclined to believe him when he says it wasn't his intention.

[Master Elodin]

What is an IKYK?

[Macen]

Sorry ahead of time for the wall of text...

I see. I am going to run a few numbers quickly.

 

Four options

1. DC has items and eliminators call him out and attack him. 
2. DC has items and eliminators do not call him out
3. DC does not have items and eliminators do not call him out
4. DC does not have items and eliminators call him out and attack him

Four outcomes

1. Eliminators waste a kill trying to kill him - Positive This is the only Negative situation. Which he has declared an heir for, so he mitigated the damage.
2. Eliminators attack someone else - Negative Positive. If he has items we don't want the eliminators to attack him. They are going to attack SOMEONE no matter what, so this can't be considered negative.
3. Eliminators attack someone else - Negative  Neutral - Worst case this is a failed ploy. As I said, the eliminators are going to kill SOMEONE, he was just trying to get them to waste an attack on him.
4. Eliminators waste a turn killing someone with little to no resources helpful to the village - Positive (from a utilitarian stance)

 

We therefore have a 50% chance of a good outcome. Unless we take into account the eliminators. This comes out to 2 positive situtations, 1 negative situation (which has built in mitigation) and one Neutral situation that effects the game 0%.

I'm going to have to disagree with you here - as i noted in Red.

 

The eliminators have two options

1. Don't attack DC
2. Attack DC

Option one has an unknowable amount of possible outcomes, making it a gamble.

Option two has two possibilities

1. DC has items to protect himself and help the village - Negative (for the eliminators)
2. DC doesn't have items to protect himself and help the village - Negative (but with the bonus of kiling DC)
3. DC has items to help the village but not protect himself - Positive
4. DC has items to protect himself but not help the village - Negative

There is a 25% chance that the eliminators will profit while trying to kill DC. They will undoubtedly have other leads to follow and more opportunities to kill him, making the probability very low that they will attack him, leading to the initial possibilities of them killing other players.

 

Overall, this plan has a very low probability of turning out in our favor, making me wonder why DC wanted this to happen.

I can't really argue with your numbers here, but I can argue your outcome. There are a LOT of items floating around right now. If i remember from last time, nearly everyone has at least one item, so the eliminators are going to get at least one item from everyone they kill. This situation gives them a target if they so choose, but also detracts from a target because he has an heir. 

I don't really see the negative of the general thought. Unless he has a soulcaster/bow and they get lucky and get that item...

[AliasSheep]

What is an IKYK?

Seconding this.

[Macen]

What is an IKYK?

I know you know.

I may be stating it incorrectly, but I've always interpreted it as telling people you have something to see how they react. You could be bluffing, or you could not.

It's like in poker telling everyone you have pocket Aces before the flop.

*EDIT* On a side note, I'm a huge fan of IKYK, because it forces actions. I just don't like doing it without some sort of way to keep myself alive, lol.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Macen

[Master Elodin]

I know you know.

I may be stating it incorrectly, but I've always interpreted it as telling people you have something to see how they react. You could be bluffing, or you could not.

It's like in poker telling everyone you have pocket Aces before the flop.

I didn't know actually, but thank you for telling me anyways.

[Alvron]

Alv? are you the shardbearer or in communication with the shardbearer?

I so wish I could claim being the killer but sadly I have no Blade.  Am I in communication with a Blade welder?  I don't know.  A PM was opened with me during the night but they have chosen not to tell me what item(s) they have and I'm not going to ask.  I fully support the killing of inactives so I hope they keep doing what they are doing.

 

What is an IKYK?

IKYK: Acronym for “I Know You Know.” This is when one faction tries to anticipate the moves the other faction will do, while the other faction anticipates this anticipation. The levels of IKYK are deep and filled with paranoia.

[Macen]

I didn't know actually, but thank you for telling me anyways.

I see what you did there...

At least I hope you ... erm...