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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Fifth Scholar was executed! They were an SDPS Member!

Devotary was killed! They were an Inner Circle Member!

RIP =\

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

+1 to killing me first. My ADHD Hyperfocus needs to be released (if it wasn't clear by the fact I keep coming back to post more -- don't want to waste the remaining time I have + literally cannot force myself to do anything else)

Fifth, if you're actually Village, then I wish you and whoever else is still around tons of luck because I've not a clue who the higher-active elim would be. If you're elim, then well done :P the chaos you caused that EoD was beautiful. Just next time plz try not to kill me at the same time <3

 

To reiterate for the future, v!me =/= e!Nerdy. The only reason I voted Nerdy over Silver was to potentially scare Fifth + because Silver/Nerdy could have been partnered. Please consider Xino, Nerdy, Almond, and maybe Insanity + Bookwyrm, equally. While I did like Book's C2, I've found their C3 kinda at-a-distance, like they were worried about jumping on V!Aman too soon? I'm slightly worried about a Silver/Xino/Book/??? team.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

For what it’s worth, I do feel I should be policy yeeted. I don’t feel comfortable that people have taken my side on this matter because of either self-vote quitting or going on ALL CAPS tangents when I’m trying to defend myself from suspicion, whether or not I feel it’s unreasonable. I should be able to divorce emotion from my posts. 

(On a side note, I’m beggining to question why self-voting is even allowed, but that’s a game meta discussion for another day / thread)

I could honestly believe a perfect storm of v!Fifth chaos intersecting with my planning. By no means do I mean spare him too much scrutiny, but Xino seems just about guaranteed (as I pointed out, he gave Nerdy a second vote instead of giving Silver a 3rd, which if purely a self-pres vote, should have gone to Silver. Unless Xino and Silver were partnered. Xino had two votes at the time and never returned to see if he survived. As Kas and Fifth have already pointed out, 80% of Xino’s inactive games are when he’s elim.)

From there you might be able to figure out Xino’s partner by who voted Fifth after my train lost momentum.

Resurfacing these posts because they're relevant. Emphasis mine.

Aman. I'm happy to die if the village wishes, I only ask that you don't shut everything I say down immediately.

ED1T:

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Aman.

I’m not moving this time.

Since you're not moving the vote, can I ask who you think my partners could be?

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted
6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Since you're not moving the vote, can I ask who you think my partners could be?

Tomorrow, yes. Right now that kind of a post isn’t going to happen since I want to do it right.

Posted
1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Tomorrow, yes. Right now that kind of a post isn’t going to happen since I want to do it right.

Sounds good! Get some rest.

Posted (edited)

fffs.

Edited to add:

Christ, but this lowkey makes me want to vote Mat.

Y'all spent half the frickin' game ignoring Xino the last time in favour of more 'catchable' Elims and now you tell me he's 'catchable' later? My sodding arse.

You JUST IGNORED HIM AND PARANOIDED ON FIFTH ANYWAY.

FFFS.

Edited to add 2:

I'm going to sleep more. I am probably not going to show up until later tomorrow because I want sleep more.

fffs.

And @Amanuensis - I mentioned last cycle, my theory on Wiz's death was that he was killed on suspicion that he was in the IC doc. That was what I was treading lightly around with my mention of "I could see him Evil" because he could be in a doc as well. But Wiz is known to...his thread activity can suffer when he is in a doc as he really likes his docs. Though that hypothesis fundamentally depends on the state of the IC doc.

Willing to vote Nerdy as well.

If people still believe V!Mat which I'm not in an objective mood to gauge right now, and I'm down with V!you, and it was V!Fifth, I feel I'm committed to a quiet Elim team one way or another. Which means looking within <TUN, Bookwyrm> as well I think, given the no crossvoting pattern Aman noticed. I find E!Xino making the D1 kill hard to swallow if he really was that busy, unless it was luck.

Edited to add 3:

Am I very mad? Yes, because I feel I just let myself get talked out of my own V!Fifth beliefs again regardless instead of sticking to them. Fffs.

Edited to add 4:

@Szeth_Pancakes: Shouldn't Xino be on an inactivity warning?

Edited to add 5:

Oh and since I can spell it out now: my theory from C1 was that Fifth was IC, based off a post of his I felt was rather pro-IC and anti-Village, hence my refusal to read him as anything other than Village, among other things like his D2. Long story short that's what it boils down to. Obviously had no incentive to tell the thread.

Edited to add 6:

Ok no E!Mat still feels so paranoid but dear Christ idgi how do you end C3 hellbent on getting an Aman/Fifth lynch no matter what that's just kayana and a commitment to only flipping Xino, a consensus sus if both Aman and Fifth flip V? After the damage has been done? Idgi I'm just struggling to make sense of how this comes from a Village perspective or maybe I'm just so done I can't see it anymore.

EDITED TO ADD 7: Going to sleep for real but had a passing thought. Bussing seems to be more rewarding in this game. If we accept that the Fifth/Mat/Aman triad are all V which is where I currently am, the options are an AG2 team or a bus. And yes I'm aware bus affects me too, no I don't really care. The thing is. I feel like the bus calculus we/I have been working on so far is that you surrender a lot of lynch control. This is bad in a normal SE game. What I'm asking is: is it actually more viable here? Suppose your team is generally low profile low thread control low exe control anyway. You win when you kill all IC and Winzik. Isn't that functionally a more acceptable trade? As long as the trusted player keeps killing, and the exe never touches them, it feels like an acceptable gambit. You don't need to outnumber and nothing interferes with the kill anyway. 

Edited by Kasimir
Posted (edited)

I'm surprised, sorry Fifth :( 

As promised I've reconsidered Hael - reread his C1 and C2 posts but I'm still leaning village. I'll quickly check out the elim doc of the Jedi MR to see if he expressed the desire to bus or not.

I'm not completely sold on V!Mat and still think that last post C2 was slightly indicative of TMI

Bookwyrm is not elims with Nerdy and neither is xino

Mat can be teamed with Nerdy or Bookwyrm but not both

Edit:

And Mat can be teamed with xino

I'm open to voting xino today but I don't understand why he would vote to save Silver C3 but not vote to save himself last cycle.

Edited by _Stick_
Posted
36 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'm surprised, sorry Fifth :( 

As promised I've reconsidered Hael - reread his C1 and C2 posts but I'm still leaning village. I'll quickly check out the elim doc of the Jedi MR to see if he expressed the desire to bus or not.

I'm not completely sold on V!Mat and still think that last post C2 was slightly indicative of TMI

Bookwyrm is not elims with Nerdy and neither is xino

Mat can be teamed with Nerdy or Bookwyrm but not both

Thought from the hazy trying to sleep fugue state:

@Amanuensis — How insane is postulating Mat/Xino?

If I set aside my "this is a kayana opening" thoughts, he's persistently defended Xino this game. C1 he wants to CC Xino C3 or C4. C3 the one time he actively intervenes to break a tie (no C1 or C2) it's to ensure Fifth dies over Xino and says he wants to flip you and Fifth because Xino is catchable which is further postponing Xino. 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Edit:

And Mat can be teamed with xino

I'm open to voting xino today but I don't understand why he would vote to save Silver C3 but not vote to save himself last cycle.

In case you missed the edit ^

e!Xino not voting to save himself is explainable by e!Mat's shift to Fifth. I don't remember if xino was online during EoD but he was not on for a decent chunk of last cycle.

Edit:

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Going to sleep for real but had a passing thought. Bussing seems to be more rewarding in this game. If we accept that the Fifth/Mat/Aman triad are all V which is where I currently am, the options are an AG2 team or a bus. And yes I'm aware bus affects me too, no I don't really care. The thing is. I feel like the bus calculus we/I have been working on so far is that you surrender a lot of lynch control. This is bad in a normal SE game. What I'm asking is: is it actually more viable here? Suppose your team is generally low profile low thread control low exe control anyway. You win when you kill all IC and Winzik. Isn't that functionally a more acceptable trade? As long as the trusted player keeps killing, and the exe never touches them, it feels like an acceptable gambit. You don't need to outnumber and nothing interferes with the kill anyway. 

From my perspective the only possible Silver bussers are Hael or you - I don't think e!you brings this up in the first place, and if Hael wanted to bus I don't see why he didn't drive the exe more strongly instead of flipflopping on Silver for the first half of C2 and only reluctantly voting on them when he did (and I think his reasoning for it makes sense - that Silver's comments about the Winzik claims were either telling of winzik!silver or e!silver and Hael couldn't decide which exactly). So while I agree that bussing is more rewarding in this game, I doubt we've seen a busser yet.

 

Edit2:

Mat is only an elim if xino is an elim, otherwise his vote switch last cycle makes no sense from an elim perspective.

E!xino =/= E!Mat and V!xino = V!Mat

Very overtly village reading Mat, should be noted. Does e!Xino do this?

Looking at this post again in light of Bookwyrm's Fifth vote over xino, I can see them paired.

 

Edit3:

E!xino world: <Silver, xino, Bookwyrm> with an optional <Mat>

V!xino world: <Silver, Nerdy, Almond, TUN/Hael?>

I'm having trouble constructing a team in a v!xino world - because I keep ending up putting newer players in that team, I think v!xino almost definitely means a 4-player elim team. Could consider E!Insanity but in a v!Aman world their C3 vote makes no sense only because Insanity didn't bother with a reason (AFAIR is was just 'I forgot why but they're sus'). I don't think it's unlikely for E!Insanity to vote v!Aman but I'd like to think that E!Insanity would come up with a reason, however flimsy, to justify the vote.

Edited by _Stick_
Posted
2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Bookwyrm is not elims with Nerdy and neither is xino

Could you explain why you think that neither of them are elim? I kinda understand Bookwyrm, but not your dismissal of Xino.

Posted
1 minute ago, NerdyAarakocra said:

Could you explain why you think that neither of them are elim? I kinda understand Bookwyrm, but not your dismissal of Xino.

I don't think neither of them are evil, just that they aren't teamed with you in particular because voting patterns. 

Since you're here, can you share your reads of: Bookwyrm, TUN, and Almond? If you had to put them in a Good/Bad bucket, no neutrals. Just off the top of your head.

Posted
1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

I don't think neither of them are evil, just that they aren't teamed with you in particular because voting patterns. 

Since you're here, can you share your reads of: Bookwyrm, TUN, and Almond? If you had to put them in a Good/Bad bucket, no neutrals. Just off the top of your head.

Bookwyrm = not very suspicious. I have a high V! read for him.
TUN = a little suspicious, but not very. Still a V! read, but a more moderate one.
I'm unsure of Almond.
 

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, NerdyAarakocra said:

Bookwyrm = not very suspicious. I have a high V! read for him.

Even though they tried to kill you C2?

edit:

And even though they strongly defended xino C3?

Edited by _Stick_
Posted
6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ok no E!Mat still feels so paranoid but dear Christ idgi how do you end C3 hellbent on getting an Aman/Fifth lynch no matter what that's just kayana and a commitment to only flipping Xino, a consensus sus if both Aman and Fifth flip V? After the damage has been done? Idgi I'm just struggling to make sense of how this comes from a Village perspective or maybe I'm just so done I can't see it anymore.

Because I don't believe that Fifth/Aman is v/v and if there's an elim in those two I'd rather find them before the elim in xino/Nerdy. I can't see how me, you, Stick, Fifth, Devo, Hael, and Aman all are village this game. Where are the elims? We all consensus read Bookwyrm as village, and does an e/e EoD with Nerdy really make sense? Idk. I haven't looked back at that recently. If the team is all low actives, why are you and me and Stick still alive?

I was wrong to say I'll never move on Aman, and I retract that statement. But I do want to know what made you and @_Stick_ do that abrupt 180 on him yesterday. I feel the similarity between this and MR57 and frankly I'm scared to change my read of the situation because the last time I did that I straight up lost the game for my team and promised myself I'd never let that happen again.

In other news, I literally had a dream last night that Stick was elim and Aman was village. Kas, do you see Stick as the most likely busser? I'm at the point where I'm considering that based only on my dream, that's how lost I am >> 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Because I don't believe that Fifth/Aman is v/v and if there's an elim in those two I'd rather find them before the elim in xino/Nerdy. I can't see how me, you, Stick, Fifth, Devo, Hael, and Aman all are village this game. Where are the elims? We all consensus read Bookwyrm as village, and does an e/e EoD with Nerdy really make sense? Idk. I haven't looked back at that recently. If the team is all low actives, why are you and me and Stick still alive?

I was wrong to say I'll never move on Aman, and I retract that statement. But I do want to know what made you and @_Stick_ do that abrupt 180 on him yesterday. I feel the similarity between this and MR57 and frankly I'm scared to change my read of the situation because the last time I did that I straight up lost the game for my team and promised myself I'd never let that happen again.

In other news, I literally had a dream last night that Stick was elim and Aman was village. Kas, do you see Stick as the most likely busser? I'm at the point where I'm considering that based only on my dream, that's how lost I am >> 

Idk, Kas is right about bussing being probably the optimal play for elims this game and E!Aman should have done it. After reading that post and the second half in particular (break down of C2) V!Aman made more sense. But anyway, E!Stick would not have moved off Aman - he wanted to die and I would’ve given it to him while also using my night kill to kill an IC suspect. I moved off him for selfish reasons - in my mind he was village and I did not want to waste the village’s only weapon on this. 

I’m also wondering why we’re still alive and I don’t know if these night kills make sense coming from an inactive team. 

I had some game-related dream as well but I don’t remember it :ph34r: 

Posted
2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

But anyway, E!Stick would not have moved off Aman - he wanted to die and I would’ve given it to him while also using my night kill to kill an IC suspect.

That's true I guess, I'll give you that. Unless you're teamed with him :eyes:

Posted
4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That's true I guess, I'll give you that. Unless you're teamed with him :eyes:

Your dream says otherwise :ph34r:

Posted

Okay, that was not good.

I think either Nerdy or Xino is Elim, but not both of them, unless they're doing some really convoluted distancing scheme.

I'm going to wait to decide which one I vote.

Posted

I am thinking ………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Thought from the hazy trying to sleep fugue state:

@Amanuensis — How insane is postulating Mat/Xino?

If I set aside my "this is a kayana opening" thoughts, he's persistently defended Xino this game. C1 he wants to CC Xino C3 or C4. C3 the one time he actively intervenes to break a tie (no C1 or C2) it's to ensure Fifth dies over Xino and says he wants to flip you and Fifth because Xino is catchable which is further postponing Xino. 

Mat/Xino is sane imo, much in the same way Mat/Silver makes sense. It's been on the back of my mind for a while. Reading Mat in a vacuum, I do find it hard to believe he's an elim tho. I've been in some extremely tilting tunnels in the past that I feel Mat's D3 push of me had a lot of parallels to. I don't really think e!Mat could fake something like that. Wow if so.

Right now I'm thinking about the Devotary kill. I kinda don't see a world in which she gave away being IC in the Wiznik doc? But at the same time, if the elims had no idea and got lucky, why Devo? Why not Stick, Kas, or Hael? Why not a lower active to keep more paranoia afloat?

ED1T:

TBH Xino works on a lot of teams. Xino/Mat. Xino/Stick. Xino/Hael. Xino/Aman, technically. I do regret not using my vote on Xino yesterday, but at the same time I was expecting D3 EoD to have more... action? Fifth at the end kinda just vanished. FeelsBadMan.

Now that I think about it, Mat would have to be the Xino partner, I believe, or else Xino is probably just village? After losing Silver, surely the active elim wouldn't let another partner die?

@Kasimir

ED2T:

Blegh. I hate that the PoE I need to solve is now <Kas, Stick, Hael, Mat>. I village read all of you, darn it! I am offend!

ED3T:

Gun to my head? I want to say e!Hael. Maybe he didn't think he put Silver in too much danger originally or was content to bus for long-term trust? Idk if that's just because I want to trust Kas, Stick, and Mat more, tho

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted (edited)

But Hael’s posts…they make sense as village,………..

I’ve convinced myself that Mat is village. Locking this in forever. 

Let us kill nerdy today 

Edited by _Stick_
spelling
Posted
7 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Well I forgot about yesterday. Oops.

Nerdy will die today!

Opinion on bookwyrm? And Almond. Based off their posts or votes whichever is quicker idc but an opinion would be nice 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Let us kill needy today 

What's your view on C2's EoD? For me that's what's stopping this exe for making sense to me. If e!xino only works with e!me then voting xino is a waste of my time and right now I don't see why killing Silver's countertrain is the best course of action here.

Also, adding onto the C2 EoD question-- in that scenario and considering that turn, who are Nerdy's teammate(s)?

Edited by Matrim's Dice
Posted
8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

In case you missed the edit ^

Yes I absolutely did :P

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

From my perspective the only possible Silver bussers are Hael or you - I don't think e!you brings this up in the first place, and if Hael wanted to bus I don't see why he didn't drive the exe more strongly instead of flipflopping on Silver for the first half of C2 and only reluctantly voting on them when he did (and I think his reasoning for it makes sense - that Silver's comments about the Winzik claims were either telling of winzik!silver or e!silver and Hael couldn't decide which exactly). So while I agree that bussing is more rewarding in this game, I doubt we've seen a busser yet.

I feel like the other corollary is extreme distancing is more rewarding IMO. Or at least ignoring your teammates. Sure you'd have to agree to do that in the doc, but trust is so much more rewarding this game because as you told me before the game, the Elims are functionally a micro-Village with extra steps and with a kill. Which means trying to ID connections...IDK. How would you play, under this schema? What to look for?

Disclaimer is I just woke up and unlike Mat no game-related dreams just dreams of rushing to a crime scene and Wyrm was my back-up which, no thank you but anyway. Without caffeine IDK if I'd trust me either.

I suppose my thought is as follows: our read of the game and so much of the vote analysis is currently based on standard SE parameters. My question is: do the Elims have an incentive to break from that? Because IMO they do get a certain amount of reward for playing with less of a regard for standard SE.

I admit I'm partly considering this because I feel like I'm not finding a coherent team among the low activity players which makes me wonder if I am approaching with a wrong assumption to begin with.

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Mat is only an elim if xino is an elim, otherwise his vote switch last cycle makes no sense from an elim perspective.

LG91 D1 E!Stick says hi.

But no, I still don't strongly believe E!Mat, if at all. This is more ??? than anything.

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Because I don't believe that Fifth/Aman is v/v and if there's an elim in those two I'd rather find them before the elim in xino/Nerdy. I can't see how me, you, Stick, Fifth, Devo, Hael, and Aman all are village this game. Where are the elims? We all consensus read Bookwyrm as village, and does an e/e EoD with Nerdy really make sense? Idk. I haven't looked back at that recently. If the team is all low actives, why are you and me and Stick still alive?

That's fair, I just feel that "there has to be an Elim in there" assumption is what was getting us into so much trouble and I remember AG2.

My question as well.

For the second...sigh. Do I gotta say it <<

It's obvious from the fact I was cool with riding the exe that I'm not likely to be IC. Comments I've made including speculating Fifth was IC and saying that Wiz might have been active in the IC doc, depending on the state of the doc, likely enforce that impression. Sure they could kill me but a kill on me is functionally a waste. Two IC dead now as a result of that play. How many more to go?

The problem with low actives Elim teams IMO is that there's little to go on, we self-cannibalise trying to find their partners, and shots on them can feel like shots in the dark.

Functionally unless they have a genius solver they wanna protect, it's the same play Fifth was suggesting but reverse: it doesn't matter how many of them we bring down as long as they kill through the IC and Winz first.

I don't really buy your IKYK talk to be honest. Most players including actual Winz doesn't do that because if your bluff gets called and you die, you are going to have a lot of egg on your face and a big apology to make to your team. Unlikely enough they don't wanna go there. If you are IC and get yourself killed pretending to be Winz, same story. That's functionally regular signalling.

I don't wanna make comments about more players 'cause I don't wanna solve for them. But you and me being alive isn't that difficult to reason why. And if you look at last cycle where we were self-cannibalising, don't you think that's pretty much the ideal state?

If we're shooting among you, Fifth, Aman, isn't that the best place to be? (I know you don't believe V!Aman but I do.)

Where's the sense of pressure?

We've seen they appear to be sniping rather than playing a normal kill game with their kill. 

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Very overtly village reading Mat, should be noted. Does e!Xino do this?

That's the other reason I was speculating about a team tbh.

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I'm having trouble constructing a team in a v!xino world - because I keep ending up putting newer players in that team, I think v!xino almost definitely means a 4-player elim team.

Weren't we already running under the four player assumption. It's the result of the square root rule or the 1/4 rule of thumb anyway. Sure we don't use that as often and prefer between 20-25% but eh.

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I was wrong to say I'll never move on Aman, and I retract that statement. But I do want to know what made you and @_Stick_ do that abrupt 180 on him yesterday. I feel the similarity between this and MR57 and frankly I'm scared to change my read of the situation because the last time I did that I straight up lost the game for my team and promised myself I'd never let that happen again.

Two things I think. One is a bit - it's a meta level I think Aman would prefer I not use or say too much more about. So imma leave that for postgame if at all.

Second - I don't really see that in E!Aman's meta tbh. My difficulty was trying to interpret the teams he kept casting: is this V!Aman? Ironically the result of MR56 is I'm used to a higher chaos V!Aman so I get very confused about here and now. Or was he trying to do the sort of convenience teams he did in MR57?

The reason I asked the three of you for your views on each other came down to that. In MR57 what I saw was, he pushes you, backs off, switches to TJ, backs off, and so on. This is really what I was trying to ask for with the MR57 comparison because I couldn't decide how I felt about team fluidity. But the difference here in the opening IMO is the two of you kept banging on each other and he didn't try to exploit Fifth even though that's the natural line IMO, try to get Fifth to think and go against you.

I guess the third thing is I don't see him responding or playing this way as an Elim.

He doesn't really go for this as a response? The proof is in the fact that he did this to all of you without once needing to make that megapost in MR57. His response to Araris's sus in endgame LG91 was also very different and subtly used Araris's playstyle against him.

That post was a blunt hammer. I don't really see that being his riposte of choice if he's Evil.

And fourth...

At the risk of making this a hard Village tell of mine...

Getting mad in thread is often suboptimal. Sometimes you do anyway but the problem when you do as an Elim is that it's easy to accidentally nudge people into V!reading you out of the flash of emotion. It's substantially easier to avoid that as an Elim because you are always being more careful and because unlike the Villager (and arguably, IC) you have a doc to rant/vent in.

I get the not wanting it to happen again, it's just that I'm okay with my V!Aman read at the moment.

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In other news, I literally had a dream last night that Stick was elim and Aman was village. Kas, do you see Stick as the most likely busser? I'm at the point where I'm considering that based only on my dream, that's how lost I am >> 

I sort of find Stick a bit more likely than Hael due to the fact Stick opened the voting on Silver anyway. But also the pragmatist in me says that just takes us back to the straightforward V!read of Stick so /shrug.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Now that I think about it, Mat would have to be the Xino partner, I believe, or else Xino is probably just village? After losing Silver, surely the active elim wouldn't let another partner die?

This is what I'm wondering about, in terms of how actively they play.

Honestly a raw inactive team just feels so weird, which almost seems to need to imply a rethink, just that /shrug

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What's your view on C2's EoD? For me that's what's stopping this exe for making sense to me. If e!xino only works with e!me then voting xino is a waste of my time and right now I don't see why killing Silver's countertrain is the best course of action here.

Also, adding onto the C2 EoD question-- in that scenario and considering that turn, who are Nerdy's teammate(s)?

I feel like half the issue is that I'm now struggling to even model how the Elim team is playing. The gambit world I've proposed feels so outlandish part of me wants to dismiss it as paranoia. The other part of me feels like that's pretty much...like why not? Wouldn't that give us max difficulty trying to understand it?

I'm trying to work out how I'd falsify it but most of that involves actually securing a flip so...

...Caffeine?

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