Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Coral Swan]

1 hour ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Coral, what's your read on me rn?

More village than it should be.

Praise the Ja!

[Mint Heron]

Tivend groaned. He needed a drink, preferably several. Kellehrt's antics had given him a massive migraine. The man was most likely a Tineye. He saw no reason to doubt that part of the tale. The question was: Was Kellehrt a Villager? Tivend was of two minds about this whole affair. On the one hand, it would be a risky gambit for a Spiked to pull off. On the other hand, this gambit benefited the Spiked more than the Village, at least in Tivend's opinion. For one, it was a black hole of information. There wasn't a lot he could gather from people realizing that a "Spiked" had confessed. Secondly, it delayed discussion of the previous day's events, which had blocked discussion for almost half the day. Further, it put Meerkat in at least some position of trust, since it was a dangerous gambit. Finally, it gave the Spiked an excellent idea whose village radars were working properly. They could devote their nightly kills to those people, and keep the gullible people alive. There was something off about the whole thing. Kellehrt (Salmon Meerkat) had been reaching all game, and Tivend was putting his foot down. If Tivend had learned anything from this, he hoped the madman would elaborate.

[Salmon Meerkat]

9 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Well, phooey, now I have to actually do some thinking this cycle. And @Salmon Meerkat, that post is 10/10 on the Aman scale . Meerkat.

but im kel =)

so its 100000/10 on the kel scale tyvm

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

bruh wat?

[Salmon Meerkat]

29 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

On the other hand, this gambit benefited the Spiked more than the Village, at least in Tivend's opinion. For one, it was a black hole of information. There wasn't a lot he could gather from people realizing that a "Spiked" had confessed. Secondly, it delayed discussion of the previous day's events, which had blocked discussion for almost half the day. Further, it put Meerkat in at least some position of trust, since it was a dangerous gambit. Finally, it gave the Spiked an excellent idea whose village radars were working properly. They could devote their nightly kills to those people, and keep the gullible people alive. There was something off about the whole thing. Kellehrt (Salmon Meerkat) had been reaching all game, and Tivend was putting his foot down. If Tivend had learned anything from this, he hoped the madman would elaborate.

Because Meerkat hadn't been in at least some position of trust on most Village reads before this, because no Coinshot claimed to Meerkat C2 ok.

It's not my problem if you guys won't get your act together and discuss, and I'm not going to be sorry for being this brutally frank about it. I'm one player and I'm not responsible for Villlage choosing to ignore good Village play and this is one point I will happily die on. I repeatedly prevailed upon everyone to talk more and prodded discussion and it was dismissed as openwolfing. (Which I understand, given the context, but.) I pointed out reads and suspicions had to be broad, that lynch pressure had to be kept on other people rather than parked on me, I could be killed later on - votes can always move and the Coinshot is likely Village anyway. No response. Players chose to obsess and buckle down rather than to use the Ocho flip, as I kept urging.

You can't complain that this shows whose Village radars are working properly and also that discussion is blocked. If discussion is blocked, then there isn't good information on whose suspicions are on-track. You can't have it both ways.

I currently read this as light V because an Elim would have to be pretty damned foolish to try this one.

[Emerald Falcon]

One can only try so hard to put out content that should be easy to engage with.

Also Meerkat is Lassie and I am Shawn, I take no criticism (constructive or otherwise)
Ostrich can be like, Juliet or something idk.

Interacting in PMs is fine and dandy if you all are doing that but remember that it supplies the other members of the village less reason to village read you really for everything you say in PMs and not in thread. This is why I dislike PMs.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

I - ughh, Meerkat I'm finding this whole thing confusing because a. I don't recall you ever pulling off such gambits or you telling me about them from your earlier days and b. I know how much you give importance to village trust forming over the early game and in this move.. you just destroyed every trust villagers had in you and caused confusion and paranoia so now I'm conflicted because either you're truthful or you have calmed yourself down, had a nice sleep, given yourself ample amount of time to cook a beautiful story, a story which I will now be trying see if there's any holes in to poke - 

Evidence that Meerkat is Truthful:

• Like Meerkat said, Seeker need to have scanned him N1, and found a village Tineye by N2 which is not mechanically possible
• All the code stuff 

Evidence that Meerkat is Lying:

• To counter in the first point of the previous case, Seeker would have to find the Tineye by some other means, i.e. PMing. I'll come back to this later
• If Octopus was, in fact, the Tineye who sent the messages, then Meerkat would have to construct a story, a very very compelling story to make his case as a Tineye, but if anyone could write a story, you guys know it's Meerkat. Use of hex codes is easier to manipulate because even the slightest adjustment in the color picking can alter the hex code drastically. For this point, I'd like to ask @Salmon Meerkat, why did you set the opacity of the first dot to 50% and the second one to 100%? This might be a stretch, but Meerkat was absolutely turned my paranoia dial to eleven.

I'd say at this point I'd still believe Meerkat is telling the truth but there's one thing still bugging me -  Why kill Octo? The Octopus kill makes absolute no sense from the elim perspective. No sense at all, especially comparing their N1 kill which was to go for a very low poster. So why change their MO in the second cycle? Which brings to the first point in the Lying case. That the Seeker somehow managed to contact Octopus and during the chain of PMs from Seeker to Octopus, it went through one of the elims. Which would give a perfect motivation for the Octopus kill, which would make the AM true, which would make Meerkat evil, which would make Meerkat fabricate a story to claim Octo's PMs. 

Not sure if anyone asked this but the best way to refute this is to ask if AMs come before deaths in OoA. @Elbereth, can a Tineye send out an anonymous message in the turn they die?

tl;dr - Paranoid about Meerkat's claim, most probably telling the truth BUT octo kill very weird - could possibly link to Meerkat's claim which is making me side-eye the whole thing

11 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Yet at the same time, in my view, Falcon and Ostrich look bad for pushing the gambit and Swan line

 And what does this mean? You'd flip before Swan [if you hadn't said anything] and if you're village like you say you are, then why would I pursue that gambit angle on Swan?

[Elbereth]

1 minute ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Not sure if anyone asked this but the best way to refute this is to ask if AMs come before deaths in OoA. @Elbereth, can a Tineye send out an anonymous message in the turn they die?

(yes, they can )

[Salmon Meerkat]

13 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

• To counter in the first point of the previous case, Seeker would have to find the Tineye by some other means, i.e. PMing. I'll come back to this later

So you are a Village Seeker. This makes you a power role. If you roleclaim to a player you haven't personally scanned, do you think that is responsible Seeker behaviour? I repeat: you are asking us to buy that the Seeker 'somehow managed to contact Ocho' - the only way this works is if the Seeker scanned Ocho and then both were stupid enough to reveal the Seeker's identity to an unscanned player. Even if Ocho had no reason to believe the Seeker to be Village, revealing the Seeker's identity in any way was bloody irresponsible.

You're essentially trying so hard to make me Evil you are willing to credit atrocious behaviour to two Villagers. If this were LG1 I'd be willing to buy that maybe but I'm not willing to buy this in a game eight years on.

13 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

• If Octopus was, in fact, the Tineye who sent the messages, then Meerkat would have to construct a story, a very very compelling story to make his case as a Tineye, but if anyone could write a story, you guys know it's Meerkat. Use of hex codes is easier to manipulate because even the slightest adjustment in the color picking can alter the hex code drastically. For this point, I'd like to ask @Salmon Meerkat, why did you set the opacity of the first dot to 50% and the second one to 100%? This might be a stretch, but Meerkat was absolutely turned my paranoia dial to eleven.

I'd set the brush opacity to 50% for a previous set of write-ups because I didn't want it so bold - I was doing splatters. I forgot to turn it back, realised belatedly, shrugged and decided ballpark was good enough.

Use of hexcodes still requires I was prescient enough to have that particular dot match the letters of my RP in a consistent fashion, much less deliberately edit my RP on N2 (you can check this, it's logged in the edits for everyone to see) to add the three crucial paragraphs I forgot. I'm sorry but you should be a basketball player because that's an incredible reach.

13 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

 And what does this mean? You'd flip before Swan [if you hadn't said anything] and if you're village like you say you are, then why would I pursue that gambit angle on Swan?

I read it as preparing the ground for a Swan push. You complain it's an Elim gambit first, and then sus on Swan, and after I die, it's clearly Swan at fault, who is already under a cloud of suspicion helpfully from last Day, so mislynch Swan next. I've talked to Falcon about this and decided Elims are more likely to ride your push so I'm not backing this point anymore.

The Ocho kill is as much of a mystery to me as anyone. The only helpful point is that it indicates likely V Coinshot but I'm paranoid the Coinshot tried to roleclear themselves to me and the Ocho kill is related to that and I don't like roleclearing players as a general rule.

Edited to add:

I'm not sure if you are being played. If there is a Seeker, where is the Seeker? Are they even Village? Seeker is not a confirmed Village role in Tyrian, remember LG74? I don't need them to claim in thread. I'd be happy to cut a deal - you lynch me this cycle, and when I'm dead and flip Village, lynch Ostrich, or the 'Seeker' who claimed to him, that he thinks exists, because any Seeker who claims to have been in contact with Ocho is, unfortunately, a filthy liar, which would make Ostrich either Evil or - more likely - a dupe.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Mint Heron]

16 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Because Meerkat hadn't been in at least some position of trust on most Village reads before this, because no Coinshot claimed to Meerkat C2 ok.

It's not my problem if you guys won't get your act together and discuss, and I'm not going to be sorry for being this brutally frank about it. I'm one player and I'm not responsible for Villlage choosing to ignore good Village play and this is one point I will happily die on. I repeatedly prevailed upon everyone to talk more and prodded discussion and it was dismissed as openwolfing. (Which I understand, given the context, but.) I pointed out reads and suspicions had to be broad, that lynch pressure had to be kept on other people rather than parked on me, I could be killed later on - votes can always move and the Coinshot is likely Village anyway. No response. Players chose to obsess and buckle down rather than to use the Ocho flip, as I kept urging.

You can't complain that this shows whose Village radars are working properly and also that discussion is blocked. If discussion is blocked, then there isn't good information on whose suspicions are on-track. You can't have it both ways.

I currently read this as light V because an Elim would have to be pretty damned foolish to try this one.

Stepping away from RP for a second to address this. It's likely that I'm going tin foil here, but I at least want to make my case. My theory is that you're an Elim Tineye, and that you wrote the message yourself.

Let's assume you are an Elim. You, or one of your teammates, are a Tineye. With 4 Tineye messages Day 1, I don't think it's that big of stretch that the Elim team has one. You come up with this gambit, and paste a message on Night 1 that could later confirm your identity. No scanning actually takes place during this gambit. Then on Night 2, you post a message saying that you're Spiked. Before this point, you were an active player who existed in a grey area. Obviously, the thread is going to focus on the person claiming to be evil. I agree that we needed to be wide in our suspicions, but having a "confirmed" wolf always narrows discussions. We also didn't know if the Coinshot was evil or not. If the Elims were confused about the Tineye ruling, they might have tried double-tapping the Tineye who was going to reveal one of their players. That's probably a bit of a stretch, but the rest of the point stands.

The main advantage E!Meerkat gets from this whole debacle is village discussion on himself. We had several posts saying "I knew it all along!" vs other posts saying "Now I have to redo my trust lists." If you're evil, this is a great way to determine who had an accurate read on you, and possibly your teammates. It gives you a good list of kill targets. The discussion is useless for the village however, since you know you're going to reset most reads by revealing the deception. The discussion gets reset, wasting the village's time, while giving the elims plenty of data to work with.

I realized while writing this that this theory is seeming less and less likely the more I type. It would be cool if I were right (and score me massive points in the dead doc), but I'm not sold on it, and I doubt your lynch is going anywhere this round. So, I'm going to retract my vote on you. Salmon Meerkat. Instead, I'm going to put my vote on Fuschia Ostrich. Their last post was very waffle-y, and they've been in an odd position where they've been active in thread, but haven't left much of an impression. I realize that's the pot calling the kettle black, but whatever.

Also, a rule question came up while I was typing this theory. @Elbereth Do Lurchers protect against all attacks for that Night, or just one? If the Coinshot is evil (doubtful), and if the elims desperately wanted to kill Octopus (also doubtful), they might have tried a double tap, and I'm not sure of the interaction there.

[Elbereth]

4 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Also, a rule question came up while I was typing this theory. @Elbereth Do Lurchers protect against all attacks for that Night, or just one? If the Coinshot is evil (doubtful), and if the elims desperately wanted to kill Octopus (also doubtful), they might have tried a double tap, and I'm not sure of the interaction there.

One. 

[Salmon Meerkat]

1 minute ago, Mint Heron said:

Before this point, you were an active player who existed in a grey area.

I have to question if you and I are playing the same game. Read the thread. A number of players were putting me as Village read. I was pretty much broadly consensus light Village and not in any immediate danger. I think you're projecting your personal read of me onto the playerbase. The Coinshot claimed to me as well C2 and while they were unfortunately slow in telling me who their N2 target was going to be such that the Ocho issue took me aback as well, they have explained their reasoning and I get it even if I wouldn't have agreed with the Ocho shot. But that's a personal meta difference and I'm not interested in calling the Coinshot's targets. Ostrich's reasoning on the Coinshot being Village makes me feel better about the Coinshot claim because I think C2 is very insanely early for a Village power rule to claim so I'm just going to chalk it down to the Coinshot being insane (sorry bro but it's true.)

4 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

The main advantage E!Meerkat gets from this whole debacle is village discussion on himself. We had several posts saying "I knew it all along!" vs other posts saying "Now I have to redo my trust lists." If you're evil, this is a great way to determine who had an accurate read on you, and possibly your teammates. It gives you a good list of kill targets. The discussion is useless for the village however, since you know you're going to reset most reads by revealing the deception. The discussion gets reset, wasting the village's time, while giving the elims plenty of data to work with.

Does it? Because the Elims who have to put reads list will have their already-faked readslist tainted by data they know to be wrong. If discussion had been more robust, we could have caught them in an inconsistency. I think you're also overly discounting the fact reading reactions helps get a firmer read on some players. Alb has been a grey area for most who aren't Swan especially due to the Thug claim. If I really am a Villager, then being the first voter on a Villager who just claimed Elim is fairly suicidal for an Elim. Alb didn't ask, just voted. That looks so absurdly awful if you know the player will flip Village. If you don't work with reaction reads, that's a you thing. God knows I don't either. But you don't get to dismiss the fact that Elims would react differently to the situation because they have TMI.

I'm going to finish summarisation and work on deciding on my own vote. It can stay chilled on Falcon for the moment while I go over D2. Poor health has temporarily stopped me from doing this yesterday but I have rested and am doing better.

Don't be sleep-deprived guys. It's bad for your health.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

9 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

You're essentially trying so hard to make me Evil you are willing to credit atrocious behaviour to two Villagers. If this were LG1 I'd be willing to buy that maybe but I'm not willing to buy this in a game eight years on.

It doesn't have to be atrocious village behavior, it can be something simple like the Seeker starting the chain of "hey someone passed a message to give to the Tineye".

I'm not trying to make you look evil, I'm just trying to understand your motive here because this is too risky move to pull off for chaos and information, and very uncharacteristic of you.

19 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I read it as preparing the ground for a Swan push. You complain it's an Elim gambit first, and then sus on Swan, and after I die, it's clearly Swan at fault, who is already under a cloud of suspicion helpfully from last Day, so mislynch Swan next. I've talked to Falcon about this and decided Elims are more likely to ride your push so I'm not backing this point anymore.

I just asked what the gambit was in the thread. I discussed the possibility in detail only in my PM with you. 

10 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Their last post was very waffle-y

What was waffle-y about my last post? I could not have been clearer about where I stand. 

[Salmon Meerkat]

58 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

It doesn't have to be atrocious village behavior, it can be something simple like the Seeker starting the chain of "hey someone passed a message to give to the Tineye".

Why would the Seeker do that? Asking for a message to pass to the Tineye automatically is noteworthy and immediately flags them as likely being a Seeker. Everyone tries the "I'm not the Tineye but I know a Tineye" deal and it never works. Why go for a Tineye when the fastest thing to do is: A. scan someone, B. get them to post a message to the thread?

Why would Ocho send a message in my distinctive style when I have a history of sending such messages? I don't want to lean too hard on player ID but your theory requires Ocho to have sent those messages and I know who you think I am, and my play history will show this is absolutely within my Tineye MO, both the style (pictorial message, broadsheet type, embedded steganography, sometimes ciphers, usually hidden in plain sight and within RP.) I'm also fairly distinctive in doing these sorts of messages in the playerbase - note that all the other Tineye messages don't use this style, and it's generally not favoured.

58 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I just asked what the gambit was in the thread. I discussed the possibility in detail only in my PM with you. 

Fair; I probably conflated them then and credited something from Falcon to you, but in any case, talking to Falcon has made me shift my view on how to read that response from both of you.

58 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I'm not trying to make you look evil, I'm just trying to understand your motive here because this is too risky move to pull off for chaos and information, and very uncharacteristic of you.

I laid out my motives. 'Hit game with stick watch what shakes out and get ISO player specialists to go read the responses.' If you really want me to spell it out, I know there are certain players in this game who excel at doing that. (Hi Falcon et al.) Is this a sort of a powerful appeal to player id? Maybe. But I don't think it's unwarranted.

Is it a big risk? Yes and no. Yes, but I'm a Village Tineye, which - since I had no idea Ocho was going to die until after, and I am asking the Coinshot to be more bloody communicative in future and call their kills beforehand and not let me wake up to that and a PM in my inbox (sorry bro I know my stunt gave u a heart attack but) - and not particularly skilled at reading because I'm a vote analysis guy. My death isn't going to hurt the Village and if there are clear interactions for people to read, why the hell not? Sometimes you have to toss the dice. It's an AN, it's the best sort of time to sometimes switch up your playstyle and take a risk you don't usually do.

Chaos isn't always bad chaos. Chaos isn't inherently bad. I dislike chaos but you can make sense out of chaos because Elims have TMI and Elims have a specific set of motivations even in the chaos.

You've also forgotten one risk I am always happy to take as a Villager - I'm never afraid to die if I think some Village benefit can be gained from it. 

Anyway:

1. Moderate Village read on Mint Heron from our interaction. I feel that an Elim would have a better read on me than "active grey area player."

2. Light Village read on Beagle, or at least I am not willing to damn her for her response to the fakeclaim. I think Beagle had a major confounding factor because she has a strong player ID read on me and unfortunately I have a strong player ID read on her which meant she had to deal with me having an emotional breakdown over the Iguana lynch that I'm not interested in talking more about. (I didn't really want to say this in thread because it feels dirty and I'm not proud of reacting that way, but okay, fine I guess I'll just say it.) I think it's understandable that given our shared views on emotional manipulation and having seen that amount of vulnerability/upset from me, she would have felt something was wrong about my being Evil. So bearish on Beagle for now.

My problem is I have too many Light /  Moderate Village reads. I'm going to reimpose this on the voting data and look for my new PoE given those assumptions and will be back.

Edited to add: I promise I am not usually an emotional kasketcase and that I don't go crying to every player who has a PM with me it was an exceptional occasion and specific series of circumstances and player ID read.

Edited to add 2:

I realise my point wasn't clear. I'll spell it out more clearly.

Ostrich is proposing that there's a Seeker out there who was nuts enough to tell everyone they were looking for a Tineye and hit enough people and an Elim in there. Leaving out the dubious strategy from the Seeker, who can actually confirm people and get them to take risks on the Seeker's behalf, what I'm saying is - okay, if there's a Seeker, they must have scanned someone N2 right? Because you don't scan an Elim N1 and stop. Is Ostrich that scan target? If he isn't, it's just speculation. If not, why doesn't the N2 scan target come forwards? Even if I'm Evil, I'm not a god. I can't infer who the Seeker is just from who the scan target. Suppose it's Ostrich - suppose that's what he's implying. If he and his Seeker are willing to stand by this, so am I.

Standard doctrine - lynch the target, then if it's wrong, lynch the 'Seeker' or the 'scan contact.'

50-50 odds of hitting an Elim? I'll take it. 

Emerald Falcon Salmon Meerkat

Edited January 11, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

1 hour ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Ostrich is proposing that there's a Seeker out there who was nuts enough to tell everyone they were looking for a Tineye and hit enough people and an Elim in there. Leaving out the dubious strategy from the Seeker, who can actually confirm people and get them to take risks on the Seeker's behalf, what I'm saying is - okay, if there's a Seeker, they must have scanned someone N2 right? Because you don't scan an Elim N1 and stop. Is Ostrich that scan target? If he isn't, it's just speculation. If not, why doesn't the N2 scan target come forwards? Even if I'm Evil, I'm not a god. I can't infer who the Seeker is just from who the scan target. Suppose it's Ostrich - suppose that's what he's implying. If he and his Seeker are willing to stand by this, so am I.

Meerkat, I think you're wholly misunderstanding what I'm trying to tell here. This is me speculating, trying to do is figure out the Octo kill, so this is one of the scenarios. And no, it's not exactly like what you said in my head. It was more like - Tineye said they're taking advertisements for future AMs right? So I figure they've claimed to a few people that they're Tineye and that they could send them a message to be posted. One of the players the Tineye claimed to would happen to be the Seeker and Seeker would pass the information (however that may be). But yeah, it still requires less than optimum play from the Seeker. But that's more like how I imagined the scenario to be. 

Anyway, this is pure speculation from my part trying to figure out the Octo kill. I'm not the N2 scan target [or if I was, I have not been contacted yet by the Seeker]. I do not know who the Seeker or the N2 scan target was, and I wasn't implying that I was one. I am just paranoid of you. 

Just keep the AMs coming, and if we ever find and kill an evil Tineye and your AMs stop, then we'll know you're evil.

[Salmon Meerkat]

4 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Just keep the AMs coming, and if we ever find and kill an evil Tineye and your AMs stop, then we'll know you're evil.

Nothing short of death is going to stop me from sending out Tineye Messages. I have a sacred duty to send scams out to the people of Tyrian Falls!

You hear that, Spiked? Only my death can stop you from receiving loan scams, phishing scams where you submit your credit card details for awful vampire and werewolf romances, banking scams, tech support scams, and MORE! (Or maybe I'll find some other schtick. Could I force all of you to read the Worst (TM) BTS fanfic? I'd have to make sure it's family-friendly but eh.)

But I'm also happy to bake in some of the more complex cryptography Opal Lion used in LG79 if that'd help. I like being able to authenticate my own messages

ACTUAL BUSINESS SERIOUS GAME STUFF:

Anyway. I want to focus on the state of my current reads, and look at the D1 + D2 results updated. [Later: No, that was too optimistic. Okay. At least I've got this bit out.] My current problem is that my reads skew village and I just have a bunch of people in the lower tiers who aren't screamingly Evil (cf. Sith tier.)

MAY THE FORCE BE WITH THEM:

Spoiler

• Alb - I get the Thug point, I'm against roleclearing and role lynches because of AG2, and also because this assumes distro facts. Spiked could have a Lurcher, or Spiked Thug may simply never claim. Logical for Village to have Thugs or Lurcher to bake in some protection against Coinshot miskills. If more Thugs appear, re-asses. Moderate Village read because Alb's response was immediate and I feel that an Elim would have been more wary of jumping on a bad train in a sketchy situation and tried to work out my plan rather than taking the bait.
   
• Swan - I kept going to and fro on Swan but I feel like I'm being overly influenced by Urbain paranoia. At this point, moderate Village as well. I think that Swan's confusion and incredulity/lulz when I 'elim slipped' felt genuine, and felt very Village. Also, I think Elim Swan would not have so strongly backed claims of my Elim slip. It's true that if Swan were Elim, I'd be putting him in a difficult position, but he had to realise that by backing those claims, my mislynch would doom him next because he would have 'vouched' for a PM interaction. As a result, I feel Elim Swan would have been under a lot of pressure and potential need to communicate with the team before doing anything too drastic and it should have showed. Elim Swan would not be so willing to put his neck on the chopping block and would probably have soft-walked the slip claims.
   
• Heron - Posts and in particular, reads on me appear to come from a Villager mindset, feel that an Elim would have been very unlikely to make that late push as they tend to be more sensitive to where the consensus lies. Elims tend to pay closer attention to where Village reads lie because they depend on this reading of the game landscape.

PADAWAN:

Spoiler

• Oxblood Beagle - After some thought, she feels like she's in her V meta to me. (High confidence player ID read at 0.95 by this juncture.) I also feel that Elim pushback would not be immediate - Elims must realise that an Elim claim from a V player in this context had to be some sort of set-up, so being immediately willing to pushback against this reads more V to me than a cautious Elim. Given her priors about me due to PM interactions between us involving my taking the outcome of D2 very badly (hello Catholic guilt complex, hello LG82, hello RL stressors, hello cases that went bad), I feel that it's a perfectly consistent way to respond to a nonsensical claim situation. Maybe not top Padawan read because of asymmetry: she has reason to V read me, but my V read of her is more defeasible.
   
• Amber Vulture - This is a default Padawan read rather than strongly indicative. Contribution-based, and in my view, will take more time to be certain, but has come across as a Villager in our interactions.
   
• Charcoal Hyena - Default Padawan read, with this player, voting history is essential to identifying alignment. More time required.
   
• Scorp - Agree cannot give too much credit for the Elim phish, but still skews slightly positive. Called out the Iguana push, so skews positive.

INITIATE:

Spoiler

• Axl - Reasons. Slight positive PM read but defeasible. Seems to be in Village meta but handle with caution because you never know.
   
• Falcon - Reasons. Positive gut read from interactions but in general have always had difficulty reading this player. 
   
• Ivory DF - Understandable; got replaced, catching up, the life of a pinch-hitter is made of suffering  Has excellent taste in drinks. Borderline between DTATM and Initiate - is working hard to catch up on the thread which feels like something an Elim wouldn't need to do because teammates would catch them up and they're not expected to engage as carefully.

DEADER THAN A TRITON MOON [=NULL]:

Spoiler

• Mouse - Same problem. Infrequent posts but nothing strongly indicative. Last logged in 5 hours ago.
   
• Cham - I'm trying to work out how I feel about Cham. In response to Axl, I'm not sure about Cham now and I go to and fro about him. He doesn't feel like he's in his Elim meta, as I've said, but that depends on an accurate player ID match and his Elim meta not changing. Cham's response felt somewhat muted, which could be an Elim trying to slow-walk the bad lynch and get credit for it. I'm just not sure, so he goes back into my nulls until I can work harder on making sense of this.
   
• Ostrich - Parked Mauve vote on D1 makes me uneasy; nice D2 contributions, D3 seems to be dragging discussion back which could indicate intent to hinder. Unclear. Helpful with regard to Coinshot insight and the sense that the Swan gambit line might not be what an Elim wanted to push. Ultimately, back to null until I can work him out.
   
• Dingo - Posting but ootl / not getting involved.
   
• Rhino - Is catching up and getting active. Like that Rhino is at least giving lynch candidates some thought. The fact that this is enough for me to bump them up in my regard likely demonstrates how quiet the rest of that activity tier is.
   
• Zebra - Checked thread but not getting involved acc. Swan (?) - Correct if mistaken. Functionally inert, last logged in 19 hours ago.
   
• Elephant - Hard to remember they exist but they've been logging in so. Last login 9 hours ago. No thread presence, therefore cannot get a better read.

I'VE GOT A BAD FEELING ABOUT THIS:

Spoiler

• Flamingo - Acknowledge I have not given enough time to thinking about Flamingo, but I think being one of three trains at end-D2 with two main trains flipping V should always indicate is worthy of attention. D1 vote indicates voting connection to Gorilla, and brought the Crocodile train online. In general, voting history means I cannot put Flamingo in a better tier.
   
• Penguin - Sensitivity to being thought to Seeker phishing, possible set-up for role lynch of Tineyes is a dubious move in any circumstance and more suspect in light of suspicion that the Elims took Ocho out because she was a Tineye. Needs a relook.

ACOLYTE:

Spoiler

• Gorilla - Showed up in thread and vanished without saying anything before I dropped the reveal post; PMed me about five to six hours ago today to say they had somewhat suspected it was a gambit because they strongly Village read me. This doesn't really feel quite right to me because almost everyone except Beagle believed I was Evil, and Beagle had an extenuating meta-reason due to our discussions about the D2 lynch and my subsequent breakdown (which again I swear I don't always do.) In that context, Gorilla's deviation reads quite like a player with TMI.

I don't have a populated Sith tier yet.

As much as I dislike revisiting D1 trains again and again, I'm going to say that I'm concerned enough to go for Gorilla. Salmon Meerkat.

For reference, as I'm still working on the other summaries, here's the Gorilla Summary:

Turquoise Gorilla PMs:

[All timestamps are GMT+8, and dated the 11th of January. Americans beware about timezone conversion. I posted about faking the whole thing at 0220hrs on the 11th of January. I am aware this is a fairly distinctive timezone, but im kel ]

Spoiler

Gorilla at [0531hrs]: > asks for opinion on The Tineye Message
kel at [1055hrs] > clearly Rembrandt could do no better - expresses approval of the message and points out he sent it
Gorilla at [1228hrs] >accepts that statement and says they had suspected it was some sort of gambit due to a very strong village read of Meerkat
kel at [1229hrs] >acknowledges and says he wishes he could say the same of Gorilla, but worries also about playing 'lynch the CWs'

Pretty much ends there after an emoji from Gorilla. The timing is a bit unusual as I posted the reveal at 0220hrs, and Gorilla was in the thread a couple times but not participating before that. Asking for a Tineye message opinion thereafter seems a bit OotL, but Gorilla's statement that they'd suspected it was some kind of gambit doesn't feel right to me. Swan for instance, noted he had a strong enough Village read of me to be struggling with my Elim slip but acknowledged I had to be Evil because no Villager would be nuts enough to claim Evil. Beagle too wrestled with it for meta-reasons due to circumstances, but ended up going with the necessitated conclusion. Gorilla having a strong Village read on me, suspecting a gambit, and hanging back doesn't feel right - it feels like a player with TMI.

Gorilla's response and acceptance of my claim I'd sent the message was fairly flat. It's possible that Gorilla had read the thread between my response and Gorilla's 1228hrs but Swan fought me extremely hard with hostility and disbelief when I tried to point out this was a gambit, and Swan had me as a fairly solid Village read as well. In comparison, Gorilla's behaviour just seems off.

Gorilla is an unsolved problem lingering from D1, and is connected to several players, such as Flamingo, whose vote made the Crocodile train come online and thus took some lynch pressure off Gorilla. At this point, I'm willing to go for it.

PENDING:

• Full PM summaries
• Updated D1 / D2 voting look - may hold off until after rollover, will see.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

ugh

catching up is hard

convinced enough of meerkats story to not want them dead

have in theory looked at all posts in this game

not convinced much of it was retained

gotta go for now

will try post before end of cycle

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Been busy for a while [still am] and could not go back through D2 like I thought I could and I'll probably not be back before EoD. Was thinking about my belief of a Flamingo - Gorilla team from D2, but uhh Flamingo is voting for Gorilla, so not sure about that anymore. But I want to contribute to the vote, and no one took up on Flamingo last cycle so Gorilla.

[Quartz Zebra]

ugh...i hate being sober.

"that man there. always talking to some crowd nobody else can see. that just ain't right. if anyone's been touched by Ruin's devilish finger, it's that man. Gorilla."

 

[Salmon Meerkat]

PM Summaries:

Hoo boy. I promised. I delivered. I know I talk a lot. If it's purely personal, I've censored it, as sometimes players and I discuss personal OOG stuff in PMs because it do be like that. The message timestamp is noted but it is censored. Again, please keep in mind that all timestamps are set to GMT+8, a completely non-unique timezone because I am kel. I am not transcribing full PMs and generally focus on PMs from the start of rollover to around the period of my post, except for exceptional cases like the Gorilla PM. This means that were dates are concerned, these span the 10th and 11th Jan.

The PMs are not in any particular order except by how much I feel like suffering. I have not realised how much I talk. RIP GMs.

Magenta Albatross PM:

Spoiler

Alb [at 1311hrs]: >personal question
kel [at 1316hrs]: >personal reply
Alb [at 1317hrs]: >still on personal topic
Alb [at 1318hrs]: >expresses disbelief at Evil
kel [at 1319hrs]: >apologises and says he is dutybound
Alb [at 1320hrs]: >says he would probably listen to Ruin too if he were Spiked
kel [at 1333hrs]: >says that can easily be arranged
Alb [at 1325hrs]: >not a conversion game
kel [at 1326hrs]: >yes but there has been write-up flavour precedents if he recalls correctly

Thoughts: Overall scant interactions and an unremarkable PM. Alb isn't particularly interested in asking more questions, which seems to fit with the Village read - sense that Elim might be more interested in what in tarnation is going on.

Conclusion: Disinterest seems consistent with player reaction - moderate Village.

Amber Vulture PM:

Spoiler

Vulture [at 1540hrs]: >Comments developments are interesting
kel [at 1544hrs]: >Gratitude, wishes it were otherwise
kel [at 1556 hrs]: >Notes that Vulture's first message was noncommital, which leaves open two possibilities: Vulture is either Evil or Village - if Vulture is Evil, then may be trying to feel Meerkat out, but likely knows something is wrong. Meerkat respects Vulture, and therefore wants Vulture to concentrate analysis on D2, not on ISO of Meerkat. Notes that Meerkat caving so easily should be odd, since Vulture is familiar with Meerkat. Requests for operative trust but also Vulture's silence.
Vulture [at 1556hrs]: >Questions why Meerkat previously discussed Hyena with him - suspects deflection or distancing tactic. Wants to know why Meerkat thinks he has messed up as he can't avoid being scanned.
kel [at 1601hrs]: >Requests time to avoid false trust. Notes that an Evil Vulture already knows Meerkat's alignment, while Meerkat will not fight the lynch if Vulture still wants to do so eventually. States that he has a plan but respects Vulture as a player and doesn't want Vulture to waste his time on a Meerkat ISO. Adds that since he is marked for death either way, nothing much is lost if Vulture focuses on D2 so Meerkat has nothing to gain by the request even if Vulture believes Meerkat is Evil. Asks why Vulture believes that Meerkat was actually scanned.
Vulture [at 1603hrs]: >Notes that Meerkat's comments are consistent with thread posts. States that asking him to look at D2 implies additional knowledge - if so, why doesn't Meerkat just share with the class? Requesting a D2 focus will unavoidably bias analysis. Notes nothing wrong with trusting Meerkat until end of cycle as Meerkat is slated for death.
kel [at 1607hrs]: >Denies having additional knowledge; was just asking Vulture to check new developments rather than wasting time analysing Meerkat because as a Villager, Meerkat's ISO is not informative. Appreciates operative trust.
Vulture [at 1608hrs]: >Points to Meerkat's player meta to agree Meerkat isn't going to send him on a wild goose chase, and agrees. Asks if Meerkat trusts the Mistborn or Tineye involved.
kel [at 1611hrs]: >Claims to strongly Village read the Tineye. Notes holes in Meerkat's story - Meerkat experienced enough not to panic in thread and to handle Elim phish from Scorp. Why falter now?
Vulture [at 1621hrs]: >Agrees to let gambit play out. Expresses thoughts about how to gain information from gambit scenario.
kel [at 1623hrs]: >Points out that game playerbase is full of many brilliant players, and if even one of them is Village, believes they can do well with information gleaned. Better than Meerkat anyway.
Vulture [at 1650hrs]: >Useful to be able to clear; better if can identify inconsistencies in player reads.
kel [at 1652hrs]: >Intend to summarise and dump all PMs in event of death for analysis. Is fine with dying if more time required to prompt more information out of players.
Vulture [at 1708hrs]: >Queries about timescale so he knows when posting analysis is fair game
kel [at 1711hrs]: >Had planned for 24 hour mark but willing to cut things closer to the bone if Vulture needs more time. Balance between not wasting lynch discussion - mislynch on Meerkat is a waste but loss of lynch discussion is a greater waste. Prefers not to die but accepting if Meerkat's death is required.
Vulture [at 1728hrs]: >Notes that this would be a good gambit for Spiked and that the speed at which people believe Meerkat might betray alignment. Asks if anyone else other than himself and Swan knows about the gambit due to PM numbers. Asks where trust in Swan comes from - has village reads from how Swan reconsidered on Cham and views on voting on early reads, but no definite conclusion from own analysis.
kel [at 1749hrs]: >States that Swan doesn't know anything - was raw opportunism. Used chance to feel Swan out and Swan's responses felt genuinely baffled in a Village way because he focused on disbelief. States that he trusts the Tineye because he is the Tineye and the last Tineye. Strange that no one else suspected as has a history of doing distinctive Tineye messages of this style. Has further proof.
Vulture [at 1753hrs]: >Notes assumption that Meerkat may not be last Tineye - for two N1 Mistborn to roll Tineye at the same time suggests many Mistborn or GM nudging. Wants to know how Meerkat drew this conclusion.
kel [at 1756hrs]: >Says that assumed the non-posters were Mistborn because players generally like to use role abilities, and dislike being regulars, so expect that the lack of messages implies that messages came from Mistborn. Agrees it is an assumption but thinks that player psychology skews that way.
Vulture [at 1801hrs]: >Disagrees - noncreative players might not do it. Hazards balance guess of one Spiked Tineye using kill and one Mistborn with Tin N1, but says two Mistborn assumption must be questioned.
kel [at 1802hrs]: >Belated response due to switching devices: Cannot deny good Spiked gambit, but counterpoint is kel is Village read, and likely to get struck by the Coinshot. If really last Tineye, may also get hit by Spiked to take down PMs. Feels like a bad trade-off, and advises Coinshot kill over lynch if required because loss of lynch poses a serious problem for Village.
kel [at 1804hrs]: >Acknowledges assumption, notes he really enjoys messing around with Tineye messages and so is likely biased.
Vulture [at 1807hrs]: >Not suggesting paranoia lynch - lynch useful if Meerkat's alignment blocks future lynch discussion, though could be interesting to see who keeps returning to Meerkat rather than future topics.
kel [at 1809hrs]: >Agrees, explains motivations for the gambit, and says if he wasn't prepared to accept potential death, he wouldn't have tried it.
Vulture [at 1814hrs]: >Notes Hyena's behaviour is interesting - took situation as given and assumes coordination between Seeker and Tineye can be done pre-N2 while clearing third party.
kel [at 1815hrs]: >Sighs.
Vulture [at 1818hrs]: >Unclear if Elim or Villager but unusual. But Vulture himself messaged Meerkat without thinking too hard about the situation, although he had just recently woken up.
kel [at 1818hrs]: >States that PM from Hyena was odd - welcomed openwolfing but seemed uninterested in response. If Evil, expect Hyena to work out Meerkat's plan as Vulture did.
kel [at 1819hrs]: >Agrees that he doesn't know what to make of Hyena, and apologises for the morning 'surprise.'
Vulture [at 1820hrs]: >Personal comment.
kel [at 1822hrs]: >Personal comment. Hopes Vulture is Village but leap of faith was required.
kel [at 2214hrs]: >Response to Vulture's earlier question - Vulture only player Meerkat let in, due to necessity. Conversations with others and trying to get a sense of Hyena - if Evil, Hyena likely to know due to familiarity with player meta. Comments on strategy as throwing things and trying to get responses.
Vulture [at 2216hrs]: >Hyena mentioned interesting PM with Meerkat, and noncommittal on Evil Meerkat read implications. Cannot offer more for personal alignment beyond what own analysis reveals and unfiltered thought process in PM.
kel [at 2218hrs]: >Acknowledges and notes he is trying to push Hyena on the Seeker issue for similar reasons. Acknowledges Vulture's statement and notes that at least on this matter, has been committed to some form of trust and cooperation with Vulture.
kel [at 2223hrs]: >Adds that wariness of Hyena originates from position in V/E Gorilla/Iguana discussion and D2 Iguana. 
Vulture [at 2233hrs]: >Acknowledges and is looking at D2 himself, thoughts to follow.
[2 messages on SE player RP styles later]:
Vulture [at 2251hrs]: >Notes that Penguin PMed to ask about Seek and has theory Ocho died because of Seeker connection. Asked if Vulture had PM with Ocho and then sent another PM clarifying she knew it sounded like Seeker phishing. Uncertain: potential E wariness at perception but due to knowledge I wasn't Evil, likely focus on Ocho.
kel [at 2254hrs]: >Queries why a true Elim would ask after a Seeker - as Meerkat is not Evil, they would know there is no Seeker.
Vulture [at 2255hrs]: >True Elim would know no Seeker but wary of perception.
kel [at 2257hrs]: >Acknowledges and states not fond of Penguin's bus theory - feels like priming for Tineye rolelynch. Rolelynching bad.
Vulture [at 2259hrs]: >Struggling not to highlight scenario inconsistencies. Disagrees with theory which requires Seeker to have scanned Ocho N1 and intervene in case of mislynch. Might be a tunnel but would attribute theory pushed more to an Elim than V as V is genuinely trying to solve the problem.
kel [at 2303hrs]: >May need to claim earlier as Hyena has realised timing doesn't work and RL stuff - Meerkat agrees RL stuff happens. Acknowledges point on Penguin and says a lot of this banks on Ocho being the Tineye. Fortunate that Meerkat always builds authentication into own Tineye messages.
Vulture [at 2311hrs]: >If Hyena has realised it, advise holding off for a few hours - other players working it out without interacting with Meerkat might indicate potential doc communciation, though not damning.
kel [at 2313hrs]: >Appreciates the point; states that the problem is as always lynch discussion - losing that is no good.
Vulture [at 2352hrs]: >Wants to know if Meerkat did or said anything to prompt retraction of Hyena's vote.
kel [at 2354hrs]: >No - Hyena worked it out himself and asked if Meerkat had proof, and accepted Meerkat's claim he did.
kel [at 2357hrs]: >Asks Vulture for opinion on if Meerkat should push Swan harder in PMs. Mentions light suspicions of Falcon in anticipation of pushback.
Vulture [at 0000hrs]: >Requests clarification
kel [at 0003hrs]: >Notes hardening of Swan's views and wonders if Elim pushback going on behind the scenes as Elims must surely know Meerkat isn't committing elaborate public falling-on-his-sword.
Vulture [at 0011hrs]: >Requests further clarification. Notes Falcon's first post is most interesting to him - reads Falcon's first post as noncommittal but encouraging lynch, but acknowledges some suspicion of Falcon since D1 Mauve ISO, so may be biased.
kel [0016hrs]: >Acknowledges; but also looking for Elim counterpush as team is not likely to be static and has likely worked out Meerkat is baiting. Notes positive reads of Swan and Alb. 50-50 on Falcon - feels Falcon's suspicions of Meerkat are low-hanging fruit, but also Falcon has a tendency to tunnel on Meerkat so perfectly normal. Feels Elim gambit theory is a prelude to buying one mislynch and getting two free.
kel [0028hrs]: >Checks if anything Vulture does will not be disrupted by Meerkat posting. Does not like thread death.
Vulture [0032hrs]: >Agrees thread death is bad - if PMs not continuing to be fruitful, should just go ahead.
kel [0033hrs]: >Acknowledges. Will do, needs better sleep patterns anyway.
kel [0035hrs]: >Holding off for a bit more as Gorilla has been sighted checking thread and may be able to solicit reactions from Gorilla interaction.
kel [0058hrs]: >Gorilla checked thread and disappeared. Unsure what to make of it.
Vulture [1317hrs]: >Acknowledges.

Thoughts: Letting Vulture in on it before everyone else was a gamble in and of itself but I've worked decently with Vulture in the past, and respect Vulture enough that being aware of Vulture's time constraints, prefer not to have Vulture waste time chasing false leads when Village Vulture can be very helpful, and Evil Vulture is, in any case, intelligent enough to infer what my plan is. There were also other player meta considerations that made Vulture the best player to approach. I never had to tell Vulture what I was doing - he worked it out for himself. Vulture's reactions generally seem on the level for me, and reads like his Village mode - throwing thoughts and observations out in the PM for working out. 50-50 on whether Vulture's acceptance of my being Village came too easily - I approached Vulture specifically because I appreciate that Vulture operates largely on logic, and it may very well be a combination of operative trust and past play history lending player meta familiarity that made Vulture suspend disbelief. [Specifically, Vulture has less reason to be paranoid of me than some of the playerbase, so feel that this is not unusual behaviour.]

Conclusion: Genuinely feels as though he's problem-solving and sifting through player reactions/interactions, and trying to make the gambit work. Part of this is operative trust of necessity, but Vulture feels invested in a good way. Would say Village.

Coral Swan PM:

Spoiler

kel [1301hrs]: >Congratulates, shouldn't have lost nerve but Swan's post had him on edge, wants to know how Swan worked him out
Swan [1303hrs]: >Says is neither Seeker nor Tineye
kel [1305hrs]: >Loses crem in incredulity that slipped to player unrelated to Tineye message
Swan [1307hrs]: >Amusement but also sympathies
kel [1307hrs]: >Incoherent screaming and says this is why he can't be Evil.
Swan [1313hrs]: >Notes that Meerkat's Evil behaviour has been indistinguishable from Village - to apparently all but one player.
kel [1314hrs]: >Acknowledges and explains he doesn't have the psychological edge to play Evil well - lost his nerve and TMIed himself when he shouldn't have.
Swan [1316hrs]: >Seeking clarification
kel [1317hrs]: >Explains Praise the Ja post at rollover had him on edge and then he automatically assumed the Tineye message was because Swan had him scanned and reacted unthinkingly.
Swan [1324hrs]: >Extremely surprised because it was a spontaneous post
kel [1325hrs]: >Comments the Ja found an Elim
Swan [1330hrs]: >Comments on suspicion of scenario - Meerkat just outright admitted so easily, and unlikely scan target. But no scenario in which a Villager would admit to being Evil. And yet Swan still struggles to accept it. 
kel [1339hrs]: >Acknowledges it is difficult pill to swallow but comments SE is a game about psychology and Meerkat hasn't been Evil in a long time, therefore no psychological fortitude to deal with pressure situations and caved. Life is like that sometimes.
[4 unrelated messages later]:
kel [2159hrs]: >Quotes Swan's message on spontaneity of PtJ message - said it felt very authentic and so Village. Congratulates Swan because if Swan is Evil, he has fooled Meerkat.
Swan [2259hrs]: >Says will mention in doc.
kel [2303hrs]: >Expresses incredulity of Swan being Evil and swearing in exasperation
Swan [2305hrs]: >Sarcastically says he pocketed Meerkat, and teammates are bird players.
kel [2309hrs]: >Wants to know what Swan's plan is. E!Swan knows that any mislynch on Meerkat is signing his death warrant. Meerkat has no backup plan. If Swan is Evil, why did he go along with it?
Swan [2316hrs]: >High confidence not a bad lynch, and annoyed to be tied to Meerkat via PtJ. Clarifies was joking. Expresses confusion.
[4 messages later]:
kel [2328hrs]: >Wants to know alternative lynch candidates if not Meerkat.
Swan [2336hrs]: >Meerkat being Evil is causing issues with reads, but likely Gorilla/Flamingo, but probably wrong so needs to rethink.
kel [2339hrs]: >Wants to know why Swan says it's messing reads up, and feels agreement on Flamingo because last CW. But doesn't want to play into 'kill the CWs' as a strategy. Doesn't like Flamingo's D1 vote still. Doesn't know why Ocho died.
Swan [2346hrs]: >PMing a confirmed Evil is pointless.
kel [2351hrs]: >Swan's loss. /shrug
kel [2359hrs]: >Notes also that Swan's struggle to believe Meerkat was Evil felt authentic, closest that Meerkat has gone to moderately Village reading Swan. Accuses Swan of trying to shut down as a counterpush to Meerkat's plan - E!Swan would know Meerkat is not Evil.
kel [0052hrs]: >Lays out the situation - Meerkat has been bashing at Swan repeatedly trying to read Swan's reaction and determine if Swan is Evil or not. Swan's responses feel too genuine, and finds the shut down involving Falcon interesting as Meerkat is anticipating an Elim counterpush. Says he can prove he is a Villager - sort of; not conclusive but argument should be more convincing to V!Swan. If E!Swan, E!Swan knows Meerkat willingly confessed to being Evil, which means Meerkat has a plan. If V!Swan, Swan's neck is on the line too, as a Meerkat mislynch means a Swan mislynch, as Swan will be accused of orchestrating a mislynch on a Villager. Claims to be trying to work out what the Elim strategy is.
Swan [1313hrs]: >Expresses doubt, but acknowledges Meerkat not known for gamethrowing. Wants to know plan.
kel [1316hrs]: >Asks Swan to pretend to be an Elim team confronted by a Villager who just claimed Evil in response to random Tineye message claiming to have Seeked Villager. What do you do?
Swan [1319hrs]: >Says he's reacting like an Elim because Elims have to react like Villagers in this scenario, and Meerkat has already said he reads Swan as genuine. Why would Village Meerkat claim? What is his plan?
kel [1325hrs]: >Clarifies he's not saying Swan is Evil - Swan's responses felt genuine. Explains plan to claim Elim and to read responses and try to get a better handle on alignments from there. Adds that is not good at reading people but anticipates better players should be able to work with data.
Swan [1333hrs]: >Strong scepticism - possible but wants to know if Tineye was involved or if Meerkat was the Tineye. No intention to unvote as Meerkat must be flipped, and fairly nuts that Swan is even considering the situation. Would prefer V!Meerkat had just gone on instead of killing self and likely Swan, and E!Meerkat couldn't have done otherwise.
kel [1340hrs]: >Clarifies that is Tineye, set the whole thing up, and can prove it. Does not want Swan mislynch - if mislynch, to be borne by Meerkat alone since Meerkat should always be lynched first and reveal post clarifies that Meerkat just opportunistically used Swan's post. V!Meerkat saying that he set this up all on his own and V!Swan wasn't lying about the 'Elim slip' means no Village excuse for going after Swan. Meerkat set the gambit to collect information and thinks even softclearing Swan and Alb is useful for relooking D1 and D2 due to some suspicious votes and subwagons. Notes dryly that Meerkat isn't an idiot and 'Elim slipping' in thread and in a PM is really, really bad play for an Elim. Correct response to anonymous Tineye message claiming scan is to deny and fight it, not panic and reveal everything. Panic in doc, not in thread.
Swan [1404hrs]: >Had been sceptical because timing was impossible without risky PM claims. But believes Meerkat - if Meerkat is Evil, then deserves to win. But makes more sense to be Village because agrees Meerkat is not an idiot.
Swan [1405hrs]: >Comments the GMs must be enjoying this.
Fifth [1412hrs]: >Tells both to look at white text from D1 post, praises the Ja.
kel [1414hrs]: >Says he was basically intended to be bait, collect reactions, dump that and PM reactions into thread.

Thoughts: In my view, this is more or less a textbook Village reaction. Swan's hostility and suspicion and disbelief ring true for a Villager - an Elim would be more curious, or more interested in fishing, I think. Swan's continued doubt and resistance to the gambit and my innocence makes more sense as coming from a Villager than an Elim trying to feign ignorance of my actual alignment. Swan's amusement also seems very authentic.

Conclusion: Moderate to strong Village read, but he's in my highest Village read tier anyway so whatever. I just don't read Swan as being Evil. If Swan is Evil, well played. I'm fine with being outplayed like this. Illogical as well for Swan to be this forward about my having 'Elim slipped' in the PM since E!Swan knows he's next.

Fuchsia Ostrich PM:

Spoiler

Ostrich [1331hrs]: >Wants to know what happened, entertained
kel [1331hrs]: >Wants to know why Ostrich asks, says he will never live this down
Ostrich [1332hrs]: >Laughs, says has no idea how Meerkat slipped
kel [1340hrs]: >Requests clarification due to typo
Ostrich [1440hrs]: >Notices Swan has explained in thread
kel [1441hrs]: >Complains he tells everyone he can't be Evil for a reason
Ostrich [1442hrs]: >Considering if Swan is Evil too and the whole affair is some ploy
kel [1444hrs]: >Wants to know what is gained by bussing Meerkat, a consensus trust.
Ostrich [1447hrs]: >Says Tineye message was seen, and so formed a ploy with Swan, who was a top Village trust, that Swan caught Meerkat.
kel [1450hrs]: >Points out no reason to do that. Meerkat could have made an easy fight of it. Chronology makes no sense, and Ocho push shows Swan has accumulated suspicion too as Swan was part of the reason for the Ocho push - due to the D2 theory their alignments were connected. Too much room to resist the Tineye message, and nothing to gain.
kel [1452hrs]: >Points to LG74 with two Elim Seekers - Seekers are never confirmed Village. Meerkat could have made a decent fight of it despite misplaying earlier. Too many points of doubt.
Ostrich [1456hrs]: >Wants to know why Meerkat didn't fight it, and says it's why he thinks it is a ploy.
kel [1458hrs]: >Snaps that he simply screwed up and SE is a psychological game, and Meerkat was extremely stressed and just dropped the ball.
Ostrich [1501hrs]: >Simple answer is possible but caution is good. Knew something was wrong with Octopus push D2.
kel [1502hrs]: >Would never deny caution is always good.

Thoughts: Initial curiosity on how this happened made me wonder if Ostrich was fishing as an Elim. The emotional valences of his messages just aren't as clearcut as those of Swan's, unfortunately. And certainly, players who cast doubt on the situation make me wonder if they're Evil. But Ostrich's reaction also feels right: he's sensed there's something weird and he's going towards further paranoia but still accepting the basic premise that I'm Evil and constructing increasingly elaborate gambits that I must be doing. Unsure if this is Ostrich's natural thought process, due to player PMs passing the Tineye message interception theory around.

Conclusion: I feel like the paranoia reads more Village to me than not. Ostrich is probing the situation but he's not trying to slow-walk the lynch or instill doubt! All his scenarios require me to be Evil but just construct alternate explanations for how the 'Elim slip' could happen. I feel like that's hard for an Elim to do - to focus only on alternatives (holes in the current situation) and for me to be Evil in all of them. On balance, at least a light Village read to Ostrich.

Chartreuse Penguin PM:

Spoiler

Penguin [1524hrs]: >Wants to know why Ocho was killed.
kel [1533hrs]: >No idea.
Penguin [1545hrs]: >Wants to know if Vulture is Evil too
kel [1547hrs]: >No idea either.
kel [1547hrs]: >Would like to believe Vulture is Village but is aware desiring something to be true does not make it so.
Penguin [1547hrs]: >Teammates must keep Meerkat in the dark, should fight for rights.
kel [1548hrs]: >Agrees, situation is unfortunate.

Thoughts: Nothing much here. In a way, Penguin's disinterest in anything not the reason behind the Ocho kill and Vulture's alignment seems like a good thing to me.

Conclusion: Disinterest in anything not Village-related could be an indicator of Villagerness. Shortness of PM itself a good sign but also means hard to get read off Penguin. Consider more, maybe revise tier.

Turquoise Gorilla PM:

Spoiler

Gorilla at [0531hrs]: > asks for opinion on The Tineye Message
kel at [1055hrs] > clearly Rembrandt could do no better - expresses approval of the message and points out he sent it
Gorilla at [1228hrs] >accepts that statement and says they had suspected it was some sort of gambit due to a very strong village read of Meerkat
kel at [1229hrs] >acknowledges and says he wishes he could say the same of Gorilla, but worries also about playing 'lynch the CWs'

Thoughts: The timing is strange - first message comes after I posted about having faked the message. Gorilla's message seems to imply they read the thread, but not the post clarifying the situation, but also that they have room or reason to doubt the message even after having a confession from me and Swan backing that confession up. Gorilla accepting that I sent the message is also odd - it's very easy, which I shouldn't be complaining about, but Ostrich's and Swan's reactions are very sharp counterpoints. It's not clear to me where Gorilla gets this trust from - unlike Beagle, who has meta-reasons, and unlike Vulture, who was working with me on an operational basis and in turn we were both cracking our heads on the issue - Gorilla hasn't really interacted too much with me, so why does Gorilla retain their strong Village read of me and think it is a gambit?

Conclusion: Doesn't ring right to me. A few too many tiny red flags. Suspicious.

Charcoal Hyena PM:

Spoiler

Hyena [1642hrs]: >Invites openwolfing
kel [1644hrs]: >Wish he could, but wants to see Village win at heart. Curse of Tyrian continues.
Hyena [2149hrs]: >Asks if curse has never been broken - forgotten about it.
kel [2150hrs]: >States it has not - AG7 doesn't count because Shardworlds.
kel [2152hrs]: >Queries if Hyena is then a Villager.
Hyena [2154hrs]: >Shardworlds fun but chaotic, might check game out. Wasn't aware neutral roles existed.
kel [2155hrs]: >Press k to doubt. AG7 was a clusterchull.
Hyena [2200hrs]: >Expresses amused confusion - Meerkat knows Hyena isn't on his team.
kel [2202hrs]: >Thought it was the other way around - Hyena knows Meerkat isn't on his team. E!Hyena likely to have figured out what Meerkat is doing.
kel [2204hrs]: >Unlikely to beat E!Hyena in a lynch anyway - Hyena's favoured battleground.
Hyena [2205hrs]: >Asks if Meerkat implying is not Spiked.
kel [2206hrs]: >Returns the question - isn't Hyena Spiked?
Hyena [2207hrs]: >Is not Spiked, is very lost.
kel [2208hrs]: >Press k to doubt.
Hyena [2213hrs]: >Meerkat implying that Tineye message is false but Meerkat playing along.
Hyena [2214hrs]: >What does Meerkat think of the message then? E!Tineye framing?
kel [2217hrs]: >E!Hyena intelligent enough to be aware Meerkat is in this position only because he chooses to be, and has likely worked out Meerkat's plan based off Meerkat's player meta. Meerkat doesn't lie down and die. Questions if E!Tineye would be so overt. Easy to resist by highlighting message is anonymous. Expresses curiosity that a player Meerkat greatly respects would simply bite the Seeker line so easily.
Hyena [2237hrs]: >Most Hyena remembers of Meerkat's meta comes from Discord incident last year about preferring Village because of solving, and disliking lying, betrayal, etcetera. Unsure if scanned E!Meerkat would fight or openwolf. Hyena would openwolf or hit out at the Tineye message, arguing it's E!Tineye. Because Meerkat never fought back, Hyena assumed openwolfing. Doesn't think would have thought to use the message to bait V and E responses. On assumption of V!Meerkat, unlikely E!Tineye ploy - too early in game for that, even with weird CW kill removing potential for mislynch - better lategame play because of reduced margin for error and less room for blowback after V!Meerkat flips V. Also unlikely Spiked are trolls, so did not doubt message. Logical conclusion is V!Meerkat set it up himself or with someone he knew in PMs - suspects Elims would try to question the lynch rather than go immediately since they know V!Meerkat will flip Village.
kel [2242hrs]: >Acknowledges he hates being Evil, and fair evaluation. Wants to ask why Hyena keeps on reading in the Seeker issue - wants to improve read of Hyena because does not understand how the thread became fixated on the Seeker issue, so needs to re-read more closely. Asks if Hyena thinks message came from V!Tineye who found a V!Seeker. Agrees with Hyena's evaluation but believes there is a layer of IKYK.
Hyena [2256hrs]: >Realises the illogic of the situation - not enough time for Seeker to scan E!Meerkat N1 and find Tineye N2 in time for message to go out for D3. Unlikely Seeker simply decided to trust without scan. Otherwise, requires lucky metal rolls from Mistborn (N1 Bronze, N2 Tin), and to recreate the Tineye's poster. Says didn't realise because RL. 
Hyena [2303hrs]: >Also likes openwolfing and was excited for Chaotic Evil Meerkat.
kel [2305hrs]: >Acknowledges chronology doesn't check out - curious that the fact the chronology doesn't work is not making headway in thread except for Swan gambit theory. Expresses sympathy for RL. Says V!Hyena might want to look at thread for reactions, and E!Hyena will look anyway so nothing Meerkat does will change that. 
Hyena [2305hrs]: >Wants to know if Meerkat can prove he set the situation up.
Hyena [2306hrs]: >Was Meerkat surprised by it?
kel [2306hrs]: >Mixed reply - has proof, but proof is defeasible as can be said Meerkat's teammate is E!Tineye and sent message in instead.
Hyena [2310hrs]: >Disagrees, thinks is a bad response. Stupid for E!Tineye to bus Meerkat. No reason for Meerkat to be bussed on purpose. And doubts Meerkat would let the CW get shot.
kel [2311hrs]: >Would hope the response doesn't work as it is a thread theory.
Hyena [2318hrs]: >Needs to re-read thread. Wants to know the code for confirmation as different situation if Meerkat set this up as opposed to Meerkat rolling with it. Wants to know how long Meerkat wants to let situation run. Mentioned to Vulture PM had gotten interesting and doesn't want to give things away if Meerkat still trolling for responses.
kel [2311hrs]: >Would like some time - waiting for thread responses to build. Evidence should satisfy. Had planned on 24 hour mark reveal, longer if thread responses are good, but does not want to block discussion so willing to post earlier.
Hyena [2352hrs]: >Concerned conversation already stagnated - problem with Seeker scans finding Elims. Wants to know if such a gambit has been attempted before. Won't give anything away, wants to see how this plays out.
kel [2355hrs]: >Doesn't know but doesn't think so. Says GMs must be laughing.
Hyena [2358hrs]: >Clarifies word Meerkat didn't know.
kel [0001hrs]: >Says he supposes this is making SE history. Preparing to summarise and paraphrase and dump all PM conversations for analysis so they should be validated even if secondhand by Meerkat's death and V flip.
Hyena [0003hrs]: >Preference for lynching an Elim. Prefers not to lose Meerkat unnecessarily.
kel [0004hrs]: >Appreciated, but prepared to die if necessary. Just wants to have data from the chaos.
Hyena [0009hrs]: >Meerkat's death would at least save Meerkat from having to analyse more, but more work for Hyena. Ig flip a reminder Hyena is fallible.
kel [0017hrs]: >Admits he would probably analyse in the dead doc anyway. Shrugs and suggests Elims are where Village isn't looking.
Hyena [0128hrs]: >Having difficulty with the wagons.
kel [0130hrs]: >Feels Hyena's pain, has to work with the PMs, needs rest.

Thoughts: As expected, Hyena was fast on the uptake. If E!Hyena, likely already knew what was going on, so no problem talking to Hyena. Unfortunate that Meerkat's level of persuasion boils down to apparent police interview tactics. Don't feel confident making an assessment one way or another. Was Hyena too fast to believe? Uncertain.

Conclusion: Really don't know what to think. Seems on the level, but at the same time, I don't feel confident evaluating this one. Feels ok to me I suppose. Revisit.

Violet Axolotl PM:

Spoiler

Axl [1310hrs]: >Sad emoji - Meerkat had said he wasn't up to any dastardly schemes.
kel [1310hrs]: >Elaborate pls
Axl [1311hrs]: >As an Elim, Meerkat has plans to destroy Tyrian and his inn.
kel [1313hrs]: >Feels Axl should understand Meerkat's position here.
Axl [1316hrs]: >Says he does understand that Meerkat has now entered the realm of unrepentant trolling. Only way Meerkat is getting out alive is to channel the spirit of Aman 20 times with change.
kel [1319hrs]: >Says it was self-inflicted, and he spooked so badly, hence saying he can't be a good Elim. He tried.
Axl [1436hrs]: >Didn't expect Meerkat to start trolling that fast.
kel [1438hrs]: >Says that it pains him Village is not playing the scan cycle right. You never sit down on an outed Elim cycle. Discussion is important and Village complacency here is deeply distressing in light of the D2 CW flip. Thinks his soul is Village.
Axl [1440hrs]: >Sympathises as believes his own soul to be Evil.
kel [1440hrs]: >Wanna swap
Axl [1442hrs]: >No, Meerkat is having so much fun
kel [1443hrs]: >Questions that, sad emoji
Axl [1445hrs]: >Welcome to sit over at the inn for Dyring's protection until the Day is done.
kel [1447hrs]: >Gratitude

Thoughts: Feels like it could go either way. Axl's first sentence had me on edge, I have to say  Generally banter, and I don't know what I'd read into it.

Conclusion: /shrug

Amethyst Scorpion PM:

Spoiler

Scorp [1346hrs]: >Meerkat had some sketchy opinions where votes were concerned. Wants to know which of Toucan and Dragonfly got heads and tails. Player ID question.
kel [1352hrs]: >Confusion. Player ID reply.
Scorp [1356hrs]: >GMs would have had to randomly decide who died and who got replaced.
kel [1414hrs]: >Doesn't know.
Scorp [1414hrs]: >Wants to know if would've killed the Tineye if they had outed Meerkat publicly.
kel [1416hrs]: >Interested in why Scorp said 'the'
Scorp [1419hrs]: >Referred to Tineye who wrote the message claiming Meerkat was spiked.
kel [1420hrs]: >Depends. Could have made a fight of it if Tineye claimed publicly. But best Meerkat can hope for is to be lynched after Tineye mislynch. Falcon tends to be paranoid of Meerkat as well.
Scorp [1442hrs]: >Notes that standard doctrine is to wait for mid-cycle before revealing Elim scans, but either way, Meerkat is dead. Good to know Evil team has Lurcher.
kel [1443hrs]:> Wants to know if Evil team has Lurcher
Scorp [1446hrs]: >Lurcher saved Alb, which makes up for Lurcher getting Smoked, leaving Meerkat to die.
kel [1447hrs]: >Interested in how Scorp is drawing this conclusion.
Scorp [1448hrs]: >Openwolfing cuts both ways.
kel [1453hrs]: >Specifically said if V believes that Team Evil has a Lurcher, not that Team Evil has one. Any Villager should consider it a distro possibility given V!Coinshot.
Scorp [1512hrs]: >Will assume Lurcher and Smoker until Team Evil are all dead. Goodbye, and enjoy talking to Meerkat's Tineye.
kel [1512hrs]: >Confused what Scorp means by Meerkat's Tineye.
Scorp [1513hrs]: >The Tineye, Meerkat's Tineye, everybody's favourite
kel [1515hrs]: > If he can find the Tineye, he will have fun. Can respect the Tineye.

Thoughts: Another one that feels like it could go either way. The talk about the Tineye almost feels a little like fishing for whether I set this up so it's interesting that I have a slightly positive read of Scorp from the thread. But maybe I need to reassess both.

Conclusion: Reassess.

Emerald Falcon PM:

Spoiler

Falcon [1309hrs]: >Oof
kel [1309hrs]: >Query
Falcon [1312hrs]: >Query
Falcon [1312hrs]: >Apologises, will continue in doc
kel [1313hrs]: >Query, and says it was inevitable - Meerkat couldn't escape the lynch forever.
Falcon [1314hrs]: >Wants to know if right to say Meerkat's D1 motivation was sus
Falcon [1315hrs]: >Wants Meerkat to say yes
kel [1318hrs]: >Can't remember, places to destroy, people to kill
Falcon [1318hrs]: >Wants to know why Meerkat didn't kill Falcon
kel [1320hrs]: >Told Falcon before in Mat's game - not Meerkat's natural kill option.
Falcon [1327hrs]: >Falcon asked nicely.
kel [1327hrs]: >Wants to know when
Falcon [1327hrs]: >Observes the kills aren't Meerkat's natural kill option either.
Falcon [1328hrs]: >Since now
kel [1328hrs]: >Told everyone he can't do Elim
Falcon [1328hrs]: >Since Falcon claimed a Coinshot PM
kel [1328hrs]: >Query
Falcon [1328hrs]: >Needs one more game
kel [1328hrs]: >Obviously a lie and Meerkat isn't a fool
Falcon [1329hrs]: >Rejects query
Falcon [1329hrs]: >Coinshot PM claim was the nice ask. Advantage of a troll playstyle.
Falcon [1330hrs]: >Wants Meerkat to reveal who he thinks Hyena is before he goes
kel [1341hrs]: >Query
kel [1342hrs]: >Hyena isn't bothering to hide and has a distinctive phrase and playstyle, but Meerkat isn't comfortable doing so as this is an AN and especially not comfortable in Hyena's case as Hyena specifically signed up for an AN.
[5 messages on playstyle later]
kel [1354hrs]: >Falcon does her, but no self-respecting Elim team was going to take the Coinshot PM bait in light of Falcon's known playstyle.
kel [1355hrs]: >Tells Falcon to spend more time figuring out Hyena and less time trying to ISO Meerkat, and questions Falcon's sus of Meerkat on the basis Meerkat is too obsessed with player IDs since Falcon is doing just that.
Falcon [1355hrs]: >Maybe no self-respecting Elim team but maybe the Coinshot would.
Falcon [1356hrs]: >Figuring out identities NAI for Falcon.
Falcon [1357hrs]: >Thinks she has convinced Ostrich she is Meerkat's teammate.
kel [1359hrs]: >Figuring out identities NAI for Meerkat as well. Already gave Falcon his four-way breakdown on why it's a waste of time engaging with Falcon's Coinshot PM claim. 
kel [1359hrs]: >Wants to know why Falcon wants to convince Ostrich she is Meerkat's teammate.
Falcon [1429hrs]: >Reason not needed, Ostrich gave Falcon an opening.
kel [1429hrs]: >lol
Falcon [1431hrs]: >GMs wondering when they added a neutral role
kel [1432hrs]: >Query
Falcon [1432hrs]: >Falcon is the neutral
Falcon [1433hrs]: >Casually doing borderline gamethrowing things since D1
kel [1436hrs]: >lol

Thoughts: Not unusual for a Falcon PM. Lots of banter, nothing substantive. Queries about E!Meerkat and Elim team choices. No conclusion, ordinary on the face of it.

Conclusion: None.

Pearl Chameleon PM:

Spoiler

Cham [1350hrs]: >Expresses surprise, wants to know if Meerkat has finally managed to rand Elim. Meerkat had been doing well despite not having been Evil in millenia.
kel [1354hrs]: >Oh?
Cham [1355hrs]: >Wants to know why Meerkat is surprised when he all but claimed in thread
kel [1357hrs]: >Wants to know why Cham is asking if Meerkat is Evil as Cham himself has pointed out Meerkat all but confessed in threat [sic]
kel [1357hrs]: >Acknowledges typo - in threat but also in thread.
Cham [1400hrs]: >Thought it'd be cool to ask in that manner.
kel [1400hrs]: >ok
Cham [1404hrs]: >Had assumed Meerkat was Village all along - had been acting the same. Had always assumed Meerkat would flip out at getting Elim and he'd be able to tell. Had been having fun playing with Meerkat.
kel [1408hrs]: >Apologises - had been having fun playing with Cham too and feeling like a normal Villager.
Cham [1414hrs]: >Will remember Meerkat
kel [1414hrs]: >Thanks Cham and apologises again but has a duty to do. Wants his team to win.
Cham [1419hrs]: >Expresses understanding but will go through the thread to get as many reads as possible. Hopes Meerkat's team is prepared to deal with the fallout.
kel [1421hrs]: >Hopes so too but at least Meerkat's team is being understanding. Has been forever since Meerkat has been Evil and he can't do it.
Cham [1450hrs]: >Thinks Meerkat could, had been doing so well. Would have been great to find out at endgame but wants to win.
kel [1453hrs]: >Query
Cham [1548hrs]: >Preferred to find Meerkat was Evil at the end but not at cost of losing.
kel [1549hrs]: >Can respect that attitude.
Cham [1550hrs]: >Can respect everything Meerkat has been doing besides murdering
kel [1551hrs]: >Can promise he has never murdered anyone from this Village apart from the Iguana vote.
Cham [1558hrs]: >Asks if this means Meerkat didn't submit the kills. Meerkat will probably see Iguana soon.
kel [1621hrs]: >Hasn't been submitting kills. Acknowledges the statement as true.

Thoughts: Subdued reaction, the way Cham phrased the first question was odd and that gave me a slightly weird vibe. Just that I get that Cham says it's phrasing, but it's weird that Cham is waiting for me to say I'm Evil when I've all but implied I am in thread, as though he has some reason to doubt, which was never apparent. (Actually I don't think I ever outright said I was Spiked. I don't know, Aes Sedai urges?) 

Conclusion: Subdued reaction isn't in itself suspicious but Cham seemed to have reason to doubt my being Evil. Maybe I'm overreading the first sentence, but that's what I got out of it. Reassess I guess.

 

---

And that's everyone. And it's late and I'm tired and my wrist is falling off and I regret it all. But here's everything at least.

In general, I decided it was useless trying to deceive Hyena or Vulture. E!Hyena or E!Vulture would already work out what was going on, more or less. A thought I had on re-reading the PMs is that I kept wondering why people were obsessed with the Seeker. But maybe that was TMI on my own part - I knew there was no Seeker! I have two thoughts: perhaps Elims obsess about the Seeker, because it's a good distraction from analysis and they do want to find a Village Seeker, if such a Seeker exists. On the other hand, perhaps players who don't care at all about the Seeker or think the Seeker a distraction have TMI.

I don't know and it's late and I'm tired. I just wanted to get this out here.

Edited to add: I would also like you to appreciate that my boy Wormmon is suffering and I am very sad  

Edited January 11, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Oxblood Beagle]

Sorry this is later than promised. I was feeling not great last night. When I sat down to try, I immediately got a headache. I'm still not feeling all that great today, so I'm not expecting to get through as much as I'd hoped. I'm going to start with what's happened this turn.

I'm a bit disappointed that a lot of people have stayed so focused on Meerkat's gambit without digging into more of the reactions. While I get that it's frustrating (and to me, incredibly confusing) to feel like a villager just tried to throw things, I actually think we learned a lot about how people reacted. So that's where I'm starting.

D3

Spoiler

Obviously we know about the Tineye message. Albatross was the first to vote Meerkat. I'm inclined to think this was very village. Elims would have been suspicious that something was up, and not likely eager to jump so immediately onto a vote.

Swan seemed hesitant at first, though I can attribute that more to Meerkat's post than a hesitancy for the exe. They were the second vote. Leaning village.

I was also hesitant, but Meerkat and I have both explained that. It was a combination of having a strong village read for PM reasons, and a recognition that the timeline of a Seeker actually scanning Meerkat and a Tineye being completely wrong. In the theoretical world where this actually happened, the Seeker would have had to be acting on trust rather than knowledge, which then didn't make sense as to why they didn't just have someone reveal it D2. 

Falcon's reaction is a bit odd. They claimed to not have a trust read on Meerkat, but also didn't submit a vote in their first post (or second, third, or fourth, or fifth). I'm side-eyeing this a bit...

Axolotl was the third vote. Again, I read this a lot like Albatross, though this was also after Meerkat started fake!openwolfing. There's only a faint possibility this was an elim capitalizing on a kasyana Meerkat. Lean village here.

Ostrich came next. Says it make sense with the Octo push, which... I don't see? I'm ignoring my personal read of Meerkat here, but I don't see how the push on Octo supports Meerkat being elim, because both candidates were village. Theoretically, elim!Meerkat would have been fine with either option for the exe last turn. Not sure what to make of this, read-wise.

Chameleon was the next vote, and seemed confused by Meerkat's openwolfing. Confusion seems mostly honest. The part that gets me is the confusion about how we were all in agreement about exing Meerkat, which was pretty clear if they'd just looked at the thread post and any of Meerkat's posts. Mild elim to null.

Dingo was the next vote and seems pretty confident in their vote. Mild village (similar to Albatross and Axolotl)

Flamingo was the next vote, followed quickly by Scorpion. Both were straightforward. Scorpions immediate turn into analyzing connections with Meerkat makes me think positively towards them (they were the first to do so). Not much about Flamingo's vote that persuades me either way. It was far enough into the cycle that an elim could have better crafted a response.

Falcon says they believe Meerkat, yet still have yet to vote on Meerkat. I'm still side-eying them hard. Then they seem to be trying to find the Seeker? Which... not a great move for a villager, but also a bit TWTBAW.

Penguin jumps in. First is "Whoa??" which conveys a little confusion or maybe just surprise? Ehhh... Dunno. They also move on to trying to solve other connections, which does give them a boost, but then they say this (bolded mine): 

On 1/9/2022 at 11:55 PM, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I think that after we exe Meerkat we should go into the next cycle analyzing Meerkat’s posts assuming that this was not in fact a bus, and depending on whether that assumption leads us to more elims, we can either discard it and entertain the bus idea for a bit or continue with it if it seems to be getting us elims. 

This is a bit odd. Why not start now looking at Meerkat's post prior to the openwolfing to see what we can parse out? While it seemed like an effort solve other connections, it was also phrased in a procrastinatory (is that a word?) way. Tinfoil theory here: They knew some of Meerkat's posts might have reflected poorly on a teammate (defending maybe?) and didn't want people looking too closely, knowing they'd dismiss it as soon as Meerkat flipped. Again, tinfoil theory, as people would dismiss the analysis either way once Meerkat flipped. So mild elim to null, I think.

Dragonfly pops in next to put a vote down. I give them a pass for reaction because they're catching up on everything.

Hyena is the final vote before the reveal (which is retracted prior to the reveal????) Reaction is a bit off, I think, but could just be about being wrong in their reads. Goes into analyzing the Octo kill. Ehhhhh about this too. 

The Big Reveal

This is where things get a lot more dicey.

Penguin's reaction makes me lean slight village on them, as I felt much the same way. The whole thing gave me a sense of vertigo, in a way. 

Swan was the first to jump to a new train. I think their unwitting role in Meerkat's plan lends a little more credence to their villageryness. An elim would probably have reacted much differently because if Meerkat flipped village, it would immediately implicate them, and Swan wasn't nearly panicked enough.

Penguin jumped next onto me. Understandable, because I did have one of the strongest and most defensive reactions to Meerkat. 

Scorpion jumps to Falcon for fishing for the Seeker. I agree, and will probably vote with them unless I find something else fishier.

Gorilla finally makes an appearance. Their reaction makes no sense? I mean, they may be just catching up but Meerkat already talked about what was happening. Either they don't trust Meerkat (in which case, why didn't they vote Meerkat), or an elim trying to frame what happened in a light to reflect poorly on those involved? Either one doesn't really make a ton of sense. I also don't like their vote here. This might be that something fishier...

Flamingo joins Swan on Gorilla for the above. No argument there.

Falcon votes on me, which ??? I didn't see anywhere else in the post a mention of my suspiciousness, other than being one of the italicized people in their vote breakdown. They also point out (in this and a later post) that the Tineye message used "regular spiked" rather than vanilla. Seems unwilling to let go of Meerkat suspicion, which could be an elim reluctant to let go of a good misexe, but not wanting to seem overt about it.

Gorilla retracts their vote claiming their phone was being weird about message order. NAI.

Chameleon votes Falcon for similar reasons to why I'm considering that vote as well. Nothing in particular stands out about this post. Falcon and Cham are not likely e/e, and I'm feeling worse about Falcon atm. So, Cham bumps to null here, depending on a Falcon flip.

Rhino jumps in with a vote on Falcon after looking at the top candidates this turn. Looks into more than just this turn of interactions, which is a good sign. Leaning village, but not enough info to really say for sure.

Heron only now jumps in with a vote on Meerkat, which I actually think leans village. This would be a bold move for an elim knowing how that flip will be. Understandable suspicion about everything. Mild village for this.

Ostrich retracts their vote, but still seems focused on the Meerkat/Octo correlation. Why? I guess I'm not under the same impression that it's that strong.

Heron jumps from Meerkat to Ostrich for their post. I'm with Heron that while Ostrich says they're clear about their opinion, the whole thing is a bit odd. Not elim!odd, but odd.

Questions for players based on above:

@Charcoal Hyena, why retract your vote on Meerkat? I get that we had several votes there, but your vote on or off would have made little difference. 

@Fuchsia Ostrich, I know this might change a bit, but you said e!Meerkat makes sense with the push on Octo. Why is that? Does Meerkat's reveal change this at all?

@Emerald Falcon, why no vote on Meerkat? Also, what about me is so suspicious? And you seem stuck on the phrasing "regular spiked". Are you still suspicious of Meerkat's claim of not being elim? 

@Violet Axolotl, what are your thoughts on Chameleon now? Still considering them elim?

@Turquoise Gorilla, now that you've hopefully had some time to catch up, what do you think now?

I'm a little irritated that people saying the timeline of the Seeker/Tineye thing is off is only now getting village cred, but me saying it right away is suspicious... 

Reads list:

Spoiler

Amber Vulture - 

Amethyst Scorpion + Their efforts towards solving and still working despite having "caught" an elim are indicative of a villager.

Azure Mouse - 

Charcoal Hyena ?/- Not sure how I feel about the retraction off Meerkat before the reveal, but otherwise not a lot to go on. Mostly null, mild elim lean.

Chartreuse Penguin +/- Most reactions seem village, but I'm still hesitant because of the desire to wait a turn to analyze. More or less null, leaning elim-ish.

Coral Swan + Reactions seemed genuine village. Overall read has been improving since D1.

Emerald Falcon - Their lack of vote on Meerkat while simultaneously condemning them is off. Then there was the attempt at finding the "seeker," but that's also really bold as elim.. Then there's the fixation on "regular" vs "vanilla". One of my stronger elim reads.

Fuchsia Ostrich ?/- Null leaning elim. Most of their posts have been fairly neutral and NAI, which is a bit suspicious. Their fixation on Meerkat/Octo is off, too. No real evidence, just bad gut feeling.

Ivory Dragonfly ? Not enough info.

Magenta Albatross -/+ Mostly village here, with a few hesitancies (mostly role-related, for which I have already said I'm not willing to exe).

Melon Dingo -/+ Fast enough response to feel naturally village. Same with their reaction after the reveal.

Mint Heron -/+ Late vote on Meerkat seems honest enough. Light village. 

Onyx Flamingo ?/- Not a lot here, but very ehhh. Light elim lean for the lack of read otherwise.

Pearl Chameleon -/+ Light village for now. Their reaction was odd, but not in a way that felt overtly elim.

Plum Rhinoceros ?/+ Not a lot of contribution. Their post voting on Falcon seems honest enough. So null, slight village lean.

Quartz Zebra ? Not enough info.

Salmon Meerkat + Absolutely my strongest village read for PM reasons. This gambit is also not something I see Meerkat trying as an elim.

Sapphire Elephant ? Not enough info.

Turquoise Gorilla +/- Not a great reaction to what happened, but it could have been someone not fully caught up on events, so only mild elim.

Violet Axolotl + Mostly village for their reactions and general desire to solve the game.

EDIT: I was trying to format and it posted. Twice. I don't even know what happened. I'll be adding a massive amount of content to this post. Hopefully I don't get ninja'd? (aww man... Penguin ninja'd me....)

And because of the massive mess up I did in posting, and being ninja'd a few times, vote pending.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Oxblood Beagle

[Chartreuse Penguin]

I have problems with how easily Meerkat seems to trust both Vulture and Hyena. I think I’m past the point of still questioning Meerkat’s alignment, but I just don’t see what either Vulture or Hyena have done to indicate a village alignment. I don’t particularly disagree with any of the thoughts/conclusions regarding the two in Meerkat’s giant PM evaluation post, but I feel like there’s definitely players capable of doing all these things while being of either alignment, so I feel that these points should largely be NAI. Which is. Concerning. I hate to tunnel, so I’m just gonna leave these thoughts here and focus on someone else

Seems like I have my vote on…um

Beagle? Yes, beagle. I’ll admit that was kind of an impulsive vote, coupled with the accumulation of previously gathered gut feelings. I will revisit this vote, take a better look at Beagle’s posts.
(ninjad by Oxblood what a coincidence)

(It appears that you’ve accidentally posted an incomplete post  )

Gorilla seems to be a popular choice today? (I’m the case of e!gorilla, notable lack of counter exe? Perhaps one will appear soon) I’ve already ISO’d them (see my N2 post) and ig I’m okay with a gorilla exe this cycle particularly because their response to my ISO was…idk, I think all they said was that I brought up a good point. @Turquoise Gorilla It’d be great to have a reads list from you, even if it’s just a list without reasoning. I know this is the second time I’m asking and I don’t intend to pressure you too much or anything if you have RL getting in the way of things - that’s completely understandable. 

Edit: sorry beagle I just saw that edit oops 

Edited January 11, 2022 by Chartreuse Penguin

[Pearl Chameleon]

can someone give me an explanation of why gorilla?

i think i have confused myself reading the thread

working on a reads list

will post later

[Salmon Meerkat]

1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I have problems with how easily Meerkat seems to trust both Vulture and Hyena.

This one I should answer openly. You caught me at a good time as I was preparing to exit Wormmon Appreciation Hour.

You single out Vulture and Hyena both. I'm going to assume part of it is reputational; part of it is the fact I was upfront with them. (There's a separate ethical question IMO that is extra strong with regards to anon games about whether it's fair to bring reputational issues here - where of all games, an anon player can escape that. I don't want to talk about this here, as this is a meta thread appropriate question, except to say that I am sympathetic to this, and I don't know what the correct answer is; Hyena and Vulture have been very obvious to anyone with play history with them (...as have I but everyone is wrong as im kel), but I would prefer to bracket the reputational issue where possible.)

My policy towards Vulture and Hyena is powerfully operative and pragmatic: I respect them, and am aware they are sufficiently formidable and intelligent enough that if they are Evil, they work out for themselves what I am doing anyway. I've seen this across games. If Vulture or Hyena are Evil, they know I am Village, and that along with my fake Elim claim is sufficient information to begin to puzzle out what my intentions are. Trust is low in this game, especially early on - I was actually surprised it took Vulture a hot second to realise what I meant when I said I had a strong Village read on the Tineye. And sometimes you have to give a bit to get a bit - giving them data means I get to see their takes, and try my best to work out if there's a powerful skew there that could be driven by alignment. Good!Vulture and Good!Hyena, on the other hand, need information to be effective. And with Hyena in particular, though this is a player meta claim, you will never catch E!Hyena by looking at his words - at least, not for a player of my skill level. You have to do it by vote analysis. With a grand total of two days of vote results, this isn't going to happen anytime soon. So they get de facto trust from me - I trust them, but with reservations, and am always on the watch to revise my evaluation if necessary. 

If you think Vulture and Hyena are sus, you are welcome to make the case in thread and discuss - that's the point of the lynch! I just operate on default trust towards these two players as a general if fallible rule because I am aware I am not going to catch them out early, and in the case of Vulture in particular, from our history of working together, it is better to keep Vulture clued in than not, and frankly, it's wasteful to do otherwise. In my view, operative trust is fine. It means discussing in PMs, and seeking views and information, as I do with many of my PM contacts. It doesn't mean I'm going to up and tell them any received roleclaims, for instance, or tell them what the roles are doing. And I generally try to avoid revealing roles without the player's permission anyway. My general attitude has been that the roles do whatever the hell they want to do and I do my own thing and try to have a nice, chill, quiet RPful game, although I might relay tactical advice if requested - which is why despite a C2 claim, I was so taken aback by the Coinshot choosing to smite Ocho!

Vulture for instance didn't know about the C2 Coinshot claim until I mentioned it in the thread, for reasons. I was hoping to have to avoid mentioning at all, since this exposes the danger of the Elims scrutinising my reads list for hints of the Coinshot, requiring me to also fudge my reads list somewhat, but more reasons - namely some residual uncertainty and paranoid possibilities. (Exhaustion I suppose so I'm not phrasing things as sharply anymore.) It's better when you can't unsay what you have not said.

Vulture in particular I trust somewhat more but this is strongly based on my read of his behaviour and his player meta - accept that's not accessible to every player, but things do be that way, and I'm open to being persuaded my read of his behaviour and our interaction is mistaken. We have history with some players and feel more confident about reading them than others.

Would I be happier with more concrete reads? Yes. But RL matters to everyone, and I get that Vulture's and Hyena's playstyles do take up quite a bit of time investment, and speaking as the player that might have spent the weekend sick and in recovery - yeah maybe don't do that. I understand and hope they'll provide more concrete thread analysis soon, and I welcome that - it's good for everyone, and helps improve reads of them and other players as well.

tldr; yes, operative trust =/= unquestioning trust, certain points are always need-to-know, plus c'mon gaiz discuss more!!!!!

P.S. Had to say this but yes I ran this one by El as I was concerned it was in an ethically grey area because Anon Game. She said it was okay and you don't have to treat someone in an AG anonymously if they insist on "screaming their identity to the world in every post." Which of course validates my decision to announce that I am Kel in every post. I asked for permission to quote this as Tired Kel apparently finds this description excessively hilarious and also accurate.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat
Reworded quote at request

[Oxblood Beagle]

Alright, my reads list has been edited in. Sorry for that complete cluster. Now, to vote!

Falcon

See prior post for reasoning.