Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Emerald Falcon]

2 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I approve of this. You have just lost five Villagers in a Tyrian game. Tick-tock, tick-tock. Wouldn't want to fall to the curse, would we?

I'm in a generous mood today so I'll probably help with some D2 analysis if I have the time =)

Keep talking, you know I love working with spew

[Pearl Chameleon]

I...am very confused, to put things simply. But it appears we have a player open-wolfing? And it is Salmon Meerkat, of all people? I am incredibly surprised. Just to be sure, could someone walk me through the process of how we reached this point, one more time?

Also, unrelated, but it is interesting that the Coinshot and the Spiked both went for the same player. 

[Coral Swan]

33 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Edit: Will note that the Coinshot is likely not elim, based on the double-kill on Octo. Doesn't preclude the possibility of multiple Mistborn acting independently, and no actual Coinshot.

Ooo good catch. Confirms my assumption anyway (hi hyena ) but it is nice to know.

27 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

swan im not voting 4 u out of respect even though this was a massive self-pwn

That's fine, I didn't do anything on purpose :P.

27 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Anyways, back to business

Coral wolf equity rises here, regardless. They're not the seeker but they claim to have fooled meerkat in PMs. If so, why didn't he try to thunderdome? All he had to do was fake confusion for a minute, then claim this was an attempt to kill him without wasting a NK. The question then gets raised, why coral then? What danger was he in before? Which would potentially backfire back to Meerkat but the point still remains

Giving up here doesn't reflect well on coral. 

I'm not taking anything Meerkat says at face value. Tired? I still believe him capable of looking. Why wouldn't coral just out a red check in thread? Because that's what you do. There's no point in interacting in PMs with a re-check (that you have rechecked, to see what they have to say) there's no role in this that would change the results of a check to spiked. 

I mean, this is fair from your PoV. From mine it's just funny.

I didn't fool Meerkat in PMs, Meerkat fooled themselves. Apparently my last-minute 'Praise the Ja!' at the end of N2 spooked them into thinking I had scanned them once they saw the Tineye message today, and that in turn spooked the gut-reaction claim. Meanwhile there's me who just thought it'd be funny to have Su get the last word...

Meerkat PMd me trying to figure out how I knew to scan them, and I responded because I was confused. Because I didn't scan them :P.

That likely won't make... a lot of sense to you because Meerkat still coulda faked confusion at that point. My only argument to that is this would be a heck of a weird lie to make ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Alternatively Meerkat could have just assumed they were dead anyway and wanted to bring me down with them, but I think it makes sense that they just kinda posted without thinking.

18 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Furthermore Meerkat supposedly hates wolfing, which furthers my thoughts about how he wouldn't be opposed to a gambit such as this

...But it's an elim anyway? So what's the problem? Lol

Edit: Oh that was furthering your post right before it. Ok. I read them out of order :P.

Praise the Ja!

Edited January 10, 2022 by Coral Swan

[Melon Dingo]

Hi everyone. I'd love to sell some history facts, but I believe certain individuals have more lucrative things to trade.

What about this is a gambit? Either Salmon Meerkat has confessed / given up, or either a Tineye or a Seeker is lying. I'm not one to try and sell this as a gambit.

I can deal with this more tomorrow.

[Magenta Albatross]

I think Falcon is saying that they think Coral swan is an elim as well and it's some sort of weird ruse on they and Meerkat's part to try to make Coral seem village as being the one Meerkat slipped to.

Unless I'm massively misunderstanding things.

[Salmon Meerkat]

6 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Ooo good catch. Confirms my assumption anyway (hi hyena ) but it is nice to know.

I feel like this misses the possibility that the Elims think/thought that Ocho was a Thug and wanted to be sure.

Just saying =)

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

1 minute ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I feel like this misses the possibility that the Elims think/thought that Ocho was a Thug and wanted to be sure.

stop  

if you thought ocho was a thug you'd avoid hitting them + they just survived an elimination, there'd be chance they'd be up for it again, so no the second kill wasn't from your end

[Violet Axolotl]

1 minute ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I feel like this misses the possibility that the Elims think/thought that Ocho was a Thug and wanted to be sure.

Just saying =)

You know, that’s not a bad point. Why didn’t I think of that?

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

violet, don't listen to meerkat just because they have a cute pfp *sighhh* 

[Salmon Meerkat]

7 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

stop  

if you thought ocho was a thug you'd avoid hitting them + they just survived an elimination, there'd be chance they'd be up for it again, so no the second kill wasn't from your end

This logic doesn't explain why we'd waste the first kill on Ocho either. Why kill Ocho when there's a good chance the Village could be talked into making another pass for Ocho? To be sure, there was a distinct chance of a Gorilla lynch but you either evaluate that Ocho is likely to face threat again or you evaluate that Ocho is not. If Ocho is likely to face threat again, then Ocho not a good target for a single or double kill because you are wasting your kill and helping the Village narrow PoE. (Which of course is why Gorilla is still alive - either that or Gorilla is Evil.)

I haven't decided why Ocho got hit by the Elim kill. It seems counterproductive.

Edit:

7 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

You know, that’s not a bad point. Why didn’t I think of that?

You're welcome =)

Edited January 10, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Onyx Flamingo]

Salmon Meerkat

Nice one gamers

Edit: The loss of a village thug makes me think alb is an elim thug. Its midnight and that's the best I can manage for helpful analysis atm.

Edeis needs her beauty rest it's hard work being the prettiest woman in town.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Onyx Flamingo

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Salmon Meerkat defended Chameleon obviously, but also put them in a shortlist of people to be Coinshot; risky if they're teammates and don't have a Lurcher. Meerkat hard passed on killing Dingo, tried to kill Hyena. Went from more likely E!Cham N1 to viewing them light village D2. Voted Iguana over Albatross or Flamingo. Doesn't like pushback against Iguana.

 

[Salmon Meerkat]

37 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Other misc things:

Only one Tineye message technically implies 3 Mistborn that all rolled Tin independent of each other N1 which is such a small likelihood that it can't be true (and PMs are open). So from N1 we have Octo (who may or may not have sent that message, we'll see next cycle depending on if we get one in that style again), the Mistborn claim, and two more. One of which is Tineye because PMs are open and the other who is also likely a Tineye because probability but could also be Mistborn.

I said 'other misc things' but I meant 'other misc thing', apparently.

Praise the Ja!

You're also missing one possibility here. Spiked Tineye who put in the NK. Messages aren't very useful for the Spiked and while Villagers don't often recall this, and thus it improves my read of you, Spiked have to forgo their metal action (if they have one) if they put in the Night Kill.

I guess I could see a Tineye also choosing not to put in a message or forgetting. A number of people tend to find Tineye messages useless.

I think you can show them this game for posterity :|

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

3 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

This logic doesn't explain why we'd waste the first kill on Ocho either. Why kill Ocho when there's a good chance the Village could be talked into making another pass for Ocho? To be sure, there was a distinct chance of a Gorilla lynch but you either evaluate that Ocho is likely to face threat again or you evaluate that Ocho is not.

Sure, but it's still more likely you'd go for single Ocho kill [for whatever reason] than a double kill because there's no point in wasting 2 kills on someone you theorize elims know is a Thug. Numerical superiority wins the game of elims, so wasting kills on a Thug doesn't make sense.

Anyway now, you're clearly trying to derail our discussion with not-so important issues and you're doing the "hey you missed this point" and then trying to give out alternate scenarios so I'll be not entertaining those, okay? 

[Salmon Meerkat]

2 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Anyway now, you're clearly trying to derail our discussion with not-so important issues and you're doing the "hey you missed this point" and then trying to give out alternate scenarios so I'll be not entertaining those, okay? 

What derail your discussion? You can discuss all the things. It's not my problem if you guys are hyperfocusing on this and not looking at: D2, the results from Ocho's flip, and what this tells you about D1 instead of just focusing on me. I'll point out that another option is to lynch someone else and to leave me for the Coinshot kill, though if you think we have a Lurcher, then I agree the lynch is best. Even then, you should be diversifying your reads and applying pressure to other players. What's important is that the votes end up on me in time for rollover.

You have information, so why aren't you using it?

God, why do I have to tell you all this, you're all supposed to have done this before....

5 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Sure, but it's still more likely you'd go for single Ocho kill [for whatever reason] than a double kill because there's no point in wasting 2 kills on someone you theorize elims know is a Thug. Numerical superiority wins the game of elims, so wasting kills on a Thug doesn't make sense.

Point, and that's a fair thought. So we can probably leave out the Thug option. Good to know the Coinshot is likely Village.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Just now, Salmon Meerkat said:

Point, and that's a fair thought. So we can probably leave out the Thug option. Good to know the Coinshot is likely Village.

-_-' 

[Salmon Meerkat]

2 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

-_-' 

What, you know me  I hate Tyrian assumptions.

What's worse than waking up at Lylo to discover the Coinshot is actually your bro Evil?

[Oxblood Beagle]

4 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Even then, you should be diversifying your reads and applying pressure to other players.

I hate to agree with Meerkat right now, but this is actually accurate. We can all agree an exe on them this turn is best, but we need to use this time to analyze elsewhere, create reads, try to figure out what else is happening. 

Definitely agree that this information about Meerkat does not look good on Chameleon. Would be willing to go for that exe next turn (or maybe a coinshot tonight?). Might also be worth another look at Albatross and Flamingo, like Scorpion pointed out. Especially with a village thug flipping already. More than one isn't unheard of, but I wouldn't argue with a scan, maybe? (See prior post about not exing just because of survival).

[Salmon Meerkat]

Just now, Oxblood Beagle said:

I hate to agree with Meerkat right now, but this is actually accurate. We can all agree an exe on them this turn is best, but we need to use this time to analyze elsewhere, create reads, try to figure out what else is happening. 

I promise that I have put on my Best Villager Hat and am only thinking of the Village's best interests right now =)

But seriously, this. C'mon guys, you've played a game where a Seeker outed an Elim before. You know how this goes. You have to discuss and that means applying lethal pressure, not just talking. That means voting. Regardless of my alignment, this has always been Village doctrine, and at heart I have always been a Villager.

In a way, I'm rooting for you. I have my duty but I want the curse broken.

[Violet Axolotl]

Just now, Salmon Meerkat said:

I promise that I have put on my Best Villager Hat and am only thinking of the Village's best interests right now =)

But seriously, this. C'mon guys, you've played a game where a Seeker outed an Elim before. You know how this goes. You have to discuss and that means applying lethal pressure, not just talking. That means voting. Regardless of my alignment, this has always been Village doctrine, and at heart I have always been a Villager.

In a way, I'm rooting for you. I have my duty but I want the curse broken.

I rate this post 7/10 on the Aman scale.

[Salmon Meerkat]

Just now, Violet Axolotl said:

I rate this post 7/10 on the Aman scale.

Sorry bro wrong person.

im kel =)

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Anyway, moving on, we've got implications of the scan because IF the scan result is correct, we've got two scenarios - 

1. Elims do not have Smokers [in which case well we don't need to be bothered] OR
2. Elims have a much more... trusted? more dangerous? more obvious scan target whom they are Smoking....

And if it is the second case, we've now got a baseline to guess who they are trying to hide more than Meerkat [who is, of course, not who we all think he is ]

[Violet Axolotl]

1 minute ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Sorry bro wrong person.

im kel =)

That was supposed to be a compliment, not an accusation of identity.

[Pearl Chameleon]

11 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Anyway, moving on, we've got implications of the scan because IF the scan result is correct, we've got two scenarios - 

1. Elims do not have Smokers [in which case well we don't need to be bothered] OR
2. Elims have a much more... trusted? more dangerous? more obvious scan target whom they are Smoking....

And if it is the second case, we've now got a baseline to guess who they are trying to hide more than Meerkat [who is, of course, not who we all think he is ]

who do you think that would be?

i can't even think of anyone was more trusted than meerkat tbh

[Emerald Falcon]

I, for one, believe Meerkat here