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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, pretty much. We had 11/23 successes with grabbing, with a base 25% elim rate I’d say it’s reasonable that 3-4 elims successfully grabbed items (maybe more even), which is slightly better odds than looking at everyone.
  2. Araris Valerian
    I’m not a fan of the Stick train, but that thought is based on Archer/Stick interactions during the first couple of cycles. I’d ask both @Illwei and @JNV to skim through C1 and C2 and see if you think those interactions make sense as e/e.
  3. Araris Valerian
    Okay, without much info, I think the best place to start is with the votes and items from D1. I think for most players they are more likely to have a vote at the end of D1 if they are elim. I also think that elims are more likely than villagers to successfully grab something. Bolded players voted. For now my vote is on Stick (Fifth is in a similar category), since I think D1 elims like to hide in trains. Nothing great, but Kas is right that we need to step up our game if there aren’t going to be any flips for a while.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Later followed by this: Also is completely ignoring roles and claims and such for analysis which led me to a completely different conclusion about elim guesses. But I don't know if I have a negative opinion because they seem evil or because they find me suspicious. Is it not a valid progression of thought? Evidence from D1 has significantly less weight than from later cycles. Also, it’s possible that Archer intended to go down and the D1 votes and some other stuff was just distancing. I ignored roleclaims because this is a blackout, and because TJ is a troll. We aren’t going to solve the game that way (yeah, Archer and all that, but I doubt his team would have put all their eggs in the fake-claim basket). I also already said that my swap with Kas failed last cycle, though I don’t know why. But I’m not “immortal” under any definition of the word. I’m also kinda worried that Illwei has all of my suspects in her top village reads. Anyhow, it looks like activity has dropped enough that basically everyone left wants me dead. So I’ll go burn the rest of my energy on the other game.
  5. Araris Valerian
    You and Orlok are both making a big deal out of this, which is setting off flags for me on both of you. Why would elim!me lie about this and then, before anyone had commented on the claim, change to telling the truth? I'll once again point people to LG 76 where I made a similar mistake. My lack of solving posts has been due to IRL stuff (mostly homework) combined with the start of the LG. As Orlok says, I'm unkillable, so the elims would want to vote me out if possible. I will note that something a bit odd happened the cycle that everyone died. I tried to swap with Kas, but the action failed. And since we don't know the OOA, I don't think we can make too reasonable of a guess as to why that happened. Based on C1 Devo-Archer interaction, I think it's reasonable to believe that Devo is not elim. Doesn't change my discomfort with a SK running around, but right now I'm focusing on the elims. Let's assume for a moment that both Orlok and Illwei are village. Even if that's wrong, and one/both of them are elim, there should still be other elims hiding out there. But I don't want to get caught up in "vote out all the active players" and end up with a dead thread. Definitely more suspicious of Illwei than Orlok though. Stick also has an interaction with Archer that I'd read as village on D1. Going to flag Thaidakar and Karnatheon as village for now as well, since given how the elims were playing things, they definitely wouldn't want to risk losing Archer C1. C1 VC: Honestly, I'd say that JNV is the only other elim I'd guess at here. C2 VC: Okay, wow. That is a lot of green on Karnatheon. Maybe he was actually elim. I'm wondering how much the elims would have stacked to save a teammate here, given no flip, and Archer's relatively low profile still. Once again, Archer/Stick/JNV/Karnatheon all voted together. The events of C3 don't seem to be very helpful. We still have the same bloc of non-voters: Dannex, TUA, Szeth. Haven't gone through all of C4, but in the VC we have Stick and JNV voting together again. I think the elims would prefer Tani to die over Devo, since there was substantial village interest in knocking out Devo, and it's reasonable to assume we'd want to try and pursue her again today. So that makes me dislike TUA and Thaidakar. The side train is Stick and JNV on Illwei. Again, I think in the case of village!Illwei this is something the elims would try and push. Okay, so I think Thaidakar is pretty likely to be elim at this point, based solely on where his votes have ended up each cycle. I'd guess at one of the 3 consistent non-voters being elim, and probably TUA out of those for randomly voting Tani last cycle. And JNV is my last guess.
  6. Araris Valerian
    I’m cool with voting off Devotary. I’d rather not have a SK running around, even if she’s technically neutral and her current explanation of her role is truthful. Apologies for my lack of contribution to the cycle, the combination of the LG starting and some IRL stuff took up pretty much all my time, but I should be more active next cycle.
  7. Araris Valerian
    The LG running right now has exactly one neutral in 24 players, which is a counterexample.
  8. Araris Valerian
    Targets acquired.
  9. Araris Valerian
    You know, that's not a terrible point. If I destroy myself then I'll never grow into an old murderous grouch. Also, I'd just like to point out that Fifth currently has the most votes, so it might be helpful if some people can vote a bit to kill someone else.
  10. Araris Valerian
    If this is the case then we must destroy the thief as quickly as possible. Violence is the only answer.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Anytime. I always say that brutal murder is the highest form of respect around here .
  12. Araris Valerian
    Well, if Striker took lessons from Kas when putting together his RNG, anything is possible. Also, @Matrim's Dice, @Karnatheon and @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, I strongly oppose any movement to vote out Fifth or Bort D1 and will back that up with the full force of... whatever I can muster this game. Possibly a homicidal school bus if it turns out I'm elim. I'll plop my vote on JNV, who is no longer a first-timer, and thus no longer (mostly) exempt from the D1 vote. I'd grab the PirateHrovell Potion, but it's not available, so I guess I'll try for some Tin and see how that goes. Edit: Added Matrim to my above list
  13. Araris Valerian
    Hey Bort! Nice you see you around again!
  14. Araris Valerian
    Tani. Oh yeah, I'm going to join the threadPMbros with a vote on Archer. Yeah, they could be elim. But, barring some kind of roleblock, they are going to have a blasted hard time NKing me if that is the case, so I don't mind agreeing with them for another cycle.
  15. Araris Valerian
    That's why I was pointing it out, so that people don't get hung up and worn out and fail to post as a result.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Yeah but I feel like a lot of the talk is them saying that they have no idea what is going on. I guess for a heads up, nobody really needs to read the back-and-forth between Aman and Kas.
  17. Araris Valerian
    TJ was so disappointed with how lots of players don't vote D1 that he decided to give y'all lots of practice at it.
  18. Araris Valerian
    This feels like e!Experience trying to shut down v!Araris's attempt to understand what the sparks is going on here...
  19. Araris Valerian
    Does @Archer know that his scan actually hit Thaidakar, or could it have been redirected somewhere? Given my ability and Striker's, there seem to be at least a few things that could have gone wrong here.
  20. Araris Valerian
    It is presented as a gift, not an item. It's definitely not persistent/passable like items typically are.
  21. Araris Valerian
    Neither/both? I'm pretty sure it came from a Gifter Epic, and regardless of whether I use it this turn, I lose access after the cycle.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Figures as much. Pretty sure my elim (+SK) streak will stand the test of time though. Edit: Unless it isn't actually a record, in which case, whoever holds the record will probably always hold it.
  23. Araris Valerian
    Depending on how you count it, mine is 15 (MR10-LG29), assuming that faction games and getting converted to elim don't break the streak. In LG 19, LG 23, and LG 29 I got converted to elim, but I would argue that LG 19 doesn't count, LG 23 didn't have a true village and should count either way. So if we are counting elim conversions as elim games, I probably still have 14.
  24. Araris Valerian
    @Amanuensis, I targeted you in hopes of pulling a conversion onto myself, actually. Or at least of confirming that you hadn’t been deliberately converted.
  25. Araris Valerian
    I'll vote Tani, no point in playing SE if we aren't murdering each other.
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