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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    They had some reasons for trusting me, but I’m not going to give away the specifics.
  2. Araris Valerian
    Okay, time to kill the thread. I got contacted by a player who I’ll refer to as Hal. Hal said that an Investigator (not Drake) scanned them as village N1, and then scanned Bort as elim on N2. I have not been scanned, just to clarify, but to avoid putting Hal in too much danger they reached out to me to do the reveal. The whole thing seems plausible given the N1 roleblock on Bort, but if Bort flips village, Hal said they will reveal themselves and the Investigator. So Szeth Bort. And probably Archer next cycle if this works.
  3. Araris Valerian
    I read Orlok as village, Szeth is getting NKed, and TUA is a regular.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Because you could be elim. And I know I’m not.
  5. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I'll avoid doing that. Edit: This is surprisingly similar to how Spark died the last time I played him. A sacrifice for the sake of the village. Perhaps things will turn out better this time.
  6. Araris Valerian
    There's no Araris/Orlok team. There's no way there are still 2 elims left. And yeah, I'm decently okay with this. I'd prefer to vote you out, but a guy can't have everything.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Okay, let's do this. First off, I pretty much agree with a comment Mat made on D1; it was pretty uneventful and we didn't really create pressure for elims to post. Now, some players having the meta they do, that doesn't mean that no elims posted, but it means that voting patterns aren't going to be super helpful. Last cycle was kinda something similar, just with fewer votes. Me joining the train on Thaidakar didn't help, but I'll blame IRL stuff and the MR for my lack of contributions then. Right now we know: There was no successful elim kill N1 There were 2 successful kills N2 Both the N2 kills likely were elim kills Bort was RBed N1 This game possibly has an Investigator I bring up (4) because, as I mentioned to Kas in our PM, the greatest threat to the elims is getting scanned. After 3-4 cycles there are pretty decent odds that one of them gets caught. I think this lends a bit of credence to the RBed elim!Bort scenario. The flip side is that our D1 was pretty pathetic, and the elims forgoing a kill then just compounds that (Our D2 wasn't much better, but whatever). In this scenario, it seems reasonable to assume that common trains of thought based on the D1 votes wouldn't lead to catching an elim. In particular, I think it makes Stick look a bit better, since it's pretty common to exe the counter-train from D1. If we want to really stretch this, we could say that the lack of an attempt to vote out Stick D2 suggests elims that are less comfortable creating their own trains. Okay, where does that leave me? Well, I'm cool with voting off Bort this cycle (historic SE player immunity has sadly expired ). However, since discussion has been so underwhelming this game, I'll park my vote on Szeth for now. In the D1 disinterested elims scenario, Szeth's vote fits right in; it was a poke vote with no follow-up, even when Stick responded. But depending on how things play out, I might switch over before end of cycle. I'm also going to steal the player list: Mostly as a convenient way to @ everyone that is still alive. Please get some votes down. Doesn't matter if you don't feel great about it. And consider the arguments made for players that already have votes sticking to them. Ideally we won't end this cycle like D1 with 5+ 1-person trains.
  8. Araris Valerian
    I mean, we can't conclusively rule out a Regular elim, though I'd agree that's probably unlikely. I also don't think we can necessarily rule out Illwei, or STINK sending in the kill last cycle. In fact, I had forgotten that STINK was vig-killed, and not voted out. So my vote on Szeth still seems pretty justified. If you guys want to vote me out, I'd change my suggestion for Devotary to be to kill Szeth or Illwei. Probably Szeth, just because Illwei is actually trying (at least on the surface, but it feels legit) to solve things.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Can you explain for the unenlightened? Edit: Maybe to help clarify, it seems like you think that either Orlok is elim or I am. But I'm not you how you are justifying that claim. (My statement here is based on the fact that you think the game is locked (solved?) if Orlok is telling the truth, and that is compatible with me being elim. The other alternative seems to be that Orlok is lying, and hence, elim) Edit 2: I think I see it? Since Orlok telling the truth implies that Szeth didn't send in the kill. And if the elim kill is after the vote in the OOA, that means it's impossible for Szeth to be elim. I'm going to wait to unvote in a new post, but I guess that means that if you guys vote me out and Devo kills TUA then we win. Definitely not leaning elim!Orlok at this point, and major props to him if he is.
  10. Araris Valerian
    I agree with Orlok that if Archer had lived any longer, this game would have been extremely hard to win. In regards to OOA, usually the vote comes relatively early, so I was sort of assuming that STINK wouldn’t have been able to send it in. If Devo has another kill, I propose we vote out Szeth and ask her to kill TUA. And if Orlok is the last elim, then well played to him. Or to Illwei, if it’s her somehow. I don’t think there’s really much I can say to defend myself, but I would really prefer not to lose to an inactive Szeth/TUA.
  11. Araris Valerian
    So unless there are still 2 elims left, Illwei should be clear, since an elim kill went in last cycle. Likewise, Devotary’s action is accounted for, not that I think there was any serious doubt about that remaining. That leaves TUA, Orlok, and Szeth. And to be honest, TUA and Szeth don’t really spark any memories for me. Not sure they’ve made any significant contributions to the game yet. I’m also surprised that TUA wasn’t filter-killed. I’m still uncomfortable with Orlok pushing for me, and I would like an explanation. @Orlok Tsubodai, aside from things about my role, why do you find me more suspicious than TUA and Szeth? Also, why would elim!me bus Stick when Illwei was seemingly willing to join me on someone else and I had (in her mind, at least) no good reason to vote for Stick? It certainly hasn’t gained me any trust, which is generally the point of a bus.
  12. Araris Valerian
    It wasn’t an item, and it seems to have come from the Santa Claus role. I didn’t use it, and it was only available for a single cycle.
  13. Araris Valerian
    That’s my point. If there were 3 elims last cycle, then it was certainly not the case that an elim was definitely going to be exed.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Hmm, that’s definitely not something that only an elim would know...
  15. Araris Valerian
    I think the best bet is to kill both JNV and Thaidakar. I’d guess that exactly one of those two is elim, and the last one is hiding somewhere in the inactives. The elim kill is of course going to hit a villager, unless they attack me and I swap it back onto one of them.
  16. Araris Valerian
    I strongly disagree, at least on a strategic level. If there were 3 living elims last cycle, not only could they have voted out one of many different people, but doing so would put the game at 5-3 this cycle, meaning it would be LyLo, and the village having no significant leads post-Archer. On the flip side, if there were only 2 living elims last cycle, bussing means that the game goes to 7-1, which is pretty much a loss. I think in either scenario, we should also consider that so far the blackout nature of this game has favored the elims more than the village, so being protective has better-than-normal benefits for their team. It's also a little weird that Illwei didn't flip. I'm going to assume that Devotary killed Dannex, which means that the elims have another information denial role. Assuming, @|TJ|, that the writeup is not supposed to contain Illwei's alignment. I'm going to go take a look back at the various role claims (and specifically, the ones that have been pseudo-confirmed).
  17. Araris Valerian
    Wait, I thought you were forsaking multiquotes this game.
  18. Araris Valerian
    @StrikerEZ, my vote is still on Stick, and was never on Steel (though it turns out it's changing to Thaidakar). Meant to post this earlier, but to be honest, even though the justification is garbage, Stick is a player that voted D1 and hasn't done anything particularly village. Thaidakar is in the same group, but with four votes, I don't think he needs my "help". Archer and Steel last cycle were just living in the side trains, which honestly is a bit more odd for Archer than for Steel. I shouldn't point too many fingers though since I was in the same place, regardless of reasons that I had. So my vote preferences are Thaid=Stick>Archer, followed by everyone else. And if I didn't vote on one of the previous three, I'd go for someone that has yet to vote the whole game. Some CC might not be misplaced here, since I doubt much discussion will come out of these last 100 minutes, and putting some pressure to have more discussion moving forward seems like a good idea. I'll be watching the thread through rollover, so ping me if you want to CC somebody. Honestly wish I had a list of which people gave IRL excuses though, since I'd almost feel bad if I voted out someone for that.
  19. Araris Valerian
    Well, good work Illwei. And that explains why my swap missed against Kas. My vote is on JNV for now.
  20. Araris Valerian
    Honestly I'm confused, and we haven't really had great discussion in the thread outside of D1 and D2, when we didn't get flips. I'm still partial to the idea that Karn was an elim, and that possibly many of the elims voted opposite him, which includes Stick. My reasoning on Stick has also changed throughout the game. During C1 I was mostly uncomfortable with how the votes fell out on her. When I did my reread of the game, the main things that stuck out to me about Stick were her interactions with Archer's role claim; in particular she seemed pretty doubtful of what Archer was claiming. And right now I would probably prefer to vote out Dannex or Stink or Szeth (Dannex first, since the other two have IRL reasons for being inactive I think), but with the low participation thus far this cycle, I don't want to run into what happened last cycle.
  21. Araris Valerian
    You know what, I'm gonna trust Illwei on this one. Stick. I think that Archer/Stick would be good enough to doctor the interactions I looked at, none of which really put a lot of pressure on Archer in the first place. Stick is also in the 4-person voter bloc that stuck together for a while, which I figure has at least one elim. And I'd really appreciate if some more people would vote. Activity level have been pretty abysmal this cycle. Don't really want a last minute "hammer" like what happened last cycle. I'm also starting to get a bit paranoid of a Devo/Illwei/Orlok team, but I'm going to channel advice I've given to Kas and shove that into a dark corner of my mind and hope I don't get brutally murdered for it. Probably wouldn't be possible for me to vote out any of those folks regardless.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Can you explain why TUA should come after Devo? Was there a scan/claim that I missed? Edit: If you have a good reason here, then I'd be fine with any of Szeth/Stink/Dannex, since I need to fill TUA's spot on the team. Also if more than 6 players would post this cycle, then I potentially wouldn't need to compromise with you... Definitely would prefer a Thaid exe.
  23. Araris Valerian
    I actually wrote some code to model the scenario I described earlier, and roughly 27.3% of the claimed items went to elims (assuming 6 elims) in 100000 trials. With 5 elims its 22.9%. So while this does indicate that elims are statistically more likely than villagers to get items, the actual difference is only around 1.2% compared to what we would expect (26.1% and 21.7% respectively). Which probably is entirely negated by all the simplifying assumptions that I made. So yeah, my POE is pretty much useless. Hold the phone while I try and get some reads. Edit: Since I'm already doing statistics, the standard deviation on those percentages is 6.8% and 6.2% respectively, which again shows that they are kinda useless.
  24. Araris Valerian
    I'm actually assuming 5-6 elims. And I think strategy B actually increases the odds of an elim getting an item versus a villager: Say all thieves and villagers picked which item to go for entirely at random. This leads to a world where several items have nobody going for them, and where several have 2+ villagers on them. Now, each elim we add in (say they choose randomly but different from their teammates) lowers the odds of each villager getting an item, but fixes the odds of their teammates getting an item. In other words, for the elims, they have to compete with 16-18 players for items, while each non-elim has to compete against the full 22 other players. Of course I made a whole bunch of simplifying assumptions here, but the general trend should still hold.
  25. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, pretty much. We had 11/23 successes with grabbing, with a base 25% elim rate I’d say it’s reasonable that 3-4 elims successfully grabbed items (maybe more even), which is slightly better odds than looking at everyone.
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