Araris Valerian

Yeah. Earlier I had been consider Mist as a potential elim (to fill the Doc/coco slot), but that relied on you being elim as well which just doesn’t fit anymore.

I’d have voted you in a heartbeat . And yeah, I think I gotta switch from Stick to Hael. If Hael is village then so are you (and Archer), which frustrates any attempt to believe Hael, if his strongest opposition is village. Maybe the elims just botched gambits back-to-back. If we don’t want to suppose that, then perhaps both coco and Twinstorm are elims, and this is just a ploy to throw confusion around.

Another point of confusion: why the heck would e!Hael be the one making this play in the first place? If we haven’t won the loop yet, there are still 2 elims left, and I’m guessing the other one has a bit more village trust than Hael does. The owner of the hat doesn’t have to be the one communicating all this stuff (though not doing it that way could cause problems if there is a major time zone difference).

This is actually a point of confusion for me. Why does e!Hael set this up to get Stick exed rather than you or Archer? You and Archer can’t both be elim, and there’s plenty of suspicion of the two of you floating around. I think Mist is kinda the only person that was seriously considering Stick as an elim.

Well, Stick and TJ can’t be elims together, since they both died L2.

Well, I'm leaning toward being convinced, but I'd like to hear other folks' thoughts on this. Guess I'll put my money where my mouth is for the time being: Stick

I guess this doesn't make sense to me. You are saying that coco seems village, but v!coco seems to pretty strongly imply e!TJ, which in turn would clear Stick. Presumably, Hael (or an elim that isn't Hael) actually has the Captain's Hat, and either Drake, another dead player, or an elim has the Don Gero mask. Otherwise this claim would fall flat pretty quickly. Did anyone PM Drake last night? That would debunk this claim as well. By the previous assumptions, Hael probably does know the actual owner of the Postman's Hat, so that can't help us sort this out. If Hael is elim, then it seems like it would follow that either coco or Twinstorm is village (otherwise, the elims don't need a gambit here). If Hael is village then of course Stick is elim.

Why Stick over Archer? Archer looks extremely paired with coco IMO.

My elim teams are Burnt/coco/Archer/(Hael or Doc or Twinstorm) and Burnt/Mist/TJ/Twinstorm. Pragmatically speaking, we might be okay in world 1 already (coco+Twinstorm elims), so that would suggest we should exe Mist or TJ today. Depends on how strong the v!coco/e!Twinstorm reads are. @Archer, what are your thoughts on why e!Burnt claimed the scan on Mist? You think it was just a major misplay? (I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on this, btw)

You’re right. Not sure what I was thinking.

Notably, coco only survived that exe because Archer blew him and myself up.

So in your opinion, we have already won the loop?

I’m not sure you understand my question. I’m asking about what might have happened in a theoretical world in which Burnt did not claim to have scanned you. Presumably, the elims didn’t want such a world to resolve, since Burnt made her claim. But why? What were they worried about preventing? Why not sit and wait a bit before making the claim? One possible explanation is that they hoped we’d exe v!Mist, and then Burnt would be immune to the D2 exe. This implies a lack of thread control, since literally nobody votes Mist or even really suggests it other than Burnt. Notably, coco is rather waffly on which of them to believe, and Archer kinda is while also voting Burnt. e!Twinstorm is not required in this world. Honestly, I don’t buy this world. Another possibility is that Burnt and Mist are e/e. This one is weird and I think it requires e!TJ to make any sense. I can’t really see coco being elim here, which means if we haven’t lost then Twinstorm is elim 4. I’ve been advocating for the second option, and nobody has really presented an alternative (an e/e scenario with v!TJ or an e/v scenario that explains the lack of votes on Mist) that I find convincing. I guess if coco/Burnt are e/e (which the L2 voting could indicate), Archer is probably an elim, and IDK about the 4th. But that still kinda implies that D1C was a misfire of epic proportions. So my team proposals are Burnt/Mist/TJ/Twinstorm and Burnt/coco/Archer/+1.

I think we still need to be asking ourselves why e!Burnt claimed to have scanned Mist on D1. Do y’all think we would have exed her or another elim without that happening? It seems apparent that it wasn’t an attempt to save an e!coco’s rupees, which is what TJ was concerned about.

I think he means the one that died L2. I've made my stance on said person being TJ or Archer fairly clear. The fact we haven't lost the game means that I'm much less convinced of e!TJ/v!coco. In that world, TJ would likely have pushed for a villager as the secondary exe for today. So that means I think elims are Burnt, coco, Archer, and one more. Probably better to try and find the one more than to exe Archer since the pool odds are more in our favor there.

This seems like it could be the basis for a neat game. Maybe add a little extra chaos with some roles that switch things around mid-game without informing anyone.

Then there's nothing to worry about. We have 2 shots left to hit 1 elim. I was considering worst-case scenarios so that we could avoid a loss this turn.

3 elims, since the wearer of the Stone Mask doesn’t get a vote. And if we are actually worried about an elim hammer, that assume coco is village, which IMO makes TJ elim.

This has been what I've been focusing on. I think both possible versions of the e/v split here have implications about who in the dead doc is elim (Archer/TJ). Worst case here is probably coco/Burnt are v/v, and Burnt being honest about not having the Stone Mask. We kinda just lose this one from exeing Burnt. Next worst case is e/v and Burnt is elim with Stone Mask. I think this has extremely strong implications for TJ as elim, and probably the others are Doc/Twinstorm, especially since it sounds like Doc could have bought a purple mask? I haven't really been following the cash flow. Honestly I think Mist could be elim as well in this world, see my earlier posts this cycle. If they are e/v and Burnt doesn't have the Stone Mask, we are sitting kind comfy. I'm not really sure that this is a likely outcome though. If they are v/v and Burnt actually has the Mask but is lying, then Mist is elim, probably teamed with Doc and Twinstorm. So Twinstorm as the secondary exe seems like it's our best option here, really.

I can only see v!coco if we have e!TJ. In that world, Burnt outs herself, then TJ diverts to coco while Burnt grabs the Stone Mask. Then D2 the village votes for the outed e!Burnt and the elims hammer the secondary vote (they have 3 votes to do this with) onto a villager, winning the game.

If coco is e, why do you think TJ would be also? TJ is literally the entire reason we exed coco. And what about Archer? He seems pretty teamed with coco.

Yeah, but everyone is too busy with Burnt and the Stone Mask to worry about the L2 victims. I thought Burnt was village because my elim team profile was a thread control one. I’m honestly not convinced that coco is elim. My read on her switched pretty hard near the end of L2. I still think you and TJ are the best candidates for L2 elim, depending on coco’s alignment. Though if coco is village I suppose it could be Stick instead of TJ. TJ’s play D1 of this loop just really rubbed me wrong.

What are your thoughts on Burnt/TJ, given how hard TJ worked to save Burnt? I’d assume if coco is village then TJ is elim. And if coco is elim then Archer probably is.

I mean, literally everyone (but maybe me) thinks you and Burnt are e/v, so that interpretation isn’t exactly far-fetched. Clearly whatever the elims are doing, they are fine with outing you/Burnt as a member, given what happened. The only tricky part is TJ convincing everyone to vote coco, but the cost of that failing isn’t really that high. It’s a low-risk gambit that basically wins the game if it succeeds. I’d lean toward Twin as an elim over Hael, but it’s mostly gut rather than solid reasoning.

I mean, you just had to sit and get accused in this world, most of the burden falls on TJ/Burnt. I'm also not convinced that's you're elim on your own merits though. It's really just how hard TJ was pushing against exeing Burnt that has me really uncomfortable. Well, from my perspective it's not the end of the world, since e!TJ could imply Burnt/Mist as e/e.