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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    I agree that this is worth taking into consideration; the elims still had 5 people here, so they had the numbers to contest this exe, even if both JNV and TUN are elim. Which means that either a bunch of them were inactive or a decision was made to leave Stick out to dry. I think Silho’s vote is a reasonable event to lead to such a decision, however, which I think can explain e!Cash not switching. Hmm, I’ll switch from JNV to Cash. I think Cash and TUN are elims proposing countertrains, and if JNV was elim he’d have joined one of them rather than voting with Stick.
  2. Araris Valerian
    I agree Cash’s post is pretty bad, but I’m not sure it should be what we’re focusing on, and I’m concerned that Archer and Turtle are just running with it. We flipped an elim last cycle, and that should be our primary source of information. Early Stick voting D3 gives light village credence for Xino and Elk. I feel like Archer is pretty solid village. He’s good enough that this won’t ever feel 100%, but the vote on Stick was unprompted, there were definitely other options, and he stuck with it and didn’t question me following. Shining… looks kinda bad, posting a reads list with village Stick right after Stick gets 2 votes. Said list also puts Xino at the bottom (and weirdly excludes me ), setting up to be able to join the counter train. Cash and Turtle are both present and active and… not taking sides. TUN takes a firm anti-Archer stance, which is indirectly a pro-Stick stance. Cash votes on Elk And the Shining locks in Stick’s death, so not much else is useful. It seems like a really odd time to bus though, given that Kas admits himself that he was about to waffle off of Stick. Okay, so Cash also looks bad from D3. I’m going to hold my vote for now, but I could get behind that exe as well. TUN still sticks out to me.
  3. Araris Valerian
    Uh, who would you rather kill? And as for your blade, if you aren't the Shaman, I'm not clearing you.
  4. Araris Valerian
    You already posted though . I don’t need everyone to start copying Kas and wallposting, but it would at least be nice to know who is still alive and interested in the game. And whether or not you think JNV should die a gruesome death for killing my friend.
  5. Araris Valerian
    Man, I kinda wish everyone who hasn’t yet posted this cycle would just get filter-killed. It’s kinda impossible to solve when there are only a couple of people posting.
  6. Araris Valerian
    I think at that point Kas looked susceptible to voting on Archer, so creating a viable counter train might have been the elim play there. TUN is also the player that stands out to me as most likely to kill Illwei N1. And it could be all of them, I think. Unless that makes D1 or D2 VCs have too much red in one place. Hmm D2 would have just stick and TUN voting for Szeth, so that’s weird if TUN is elim. And if we assume that the D2 Bookwyrm train had at least one elim, from my perspective that is either you, Cash, or JNV. I was thinking if the elims all voted D1 and spread then e!TUN is the elim on Szeth. And JNV is the Bookwyrm voter elim.
  7. Araris Valerian
    I think either Cash or TUN could be elim as well, based on the first VC we got D3. The votes on Archer and Xino could have an attempt to see what sticks. Really my only village credence for Cash is the Illwei kill thing which is kinda flimsy. I’m still bothered by @Elkanah following Xino’s vote twice with no explanation in D1. Xino probably looks better now? I don’t think it was clear at that point that Stick was in danger, so there’s not really a great reason to draw attention to another elim.
  8. Araris Valerian
    I'm going to start off on JNV.
  9. Araris Valerian
    You need to be a bit more subtle with your reads. Now my underflying of the radar has been blown.
  10. Araris Valerian
    *Is greatly relieved that Kas no longer wants to murder me*
  11. Araris Valerian
    I found it interesting that Stick voted Elk early D2. Early votes are weird because they can disappear and be just for distancing or they can snowball if other people jump on them. I’m also considering Archer as an elim right now, but he doesn’t really fit with Elk either, given his stance on voting out Elk before Szeth. That’s probably fine, since I bet someone inactive is elim, and I was trying to focus on people who actually have done stuff. Actually Archer and JNV probably don’t make a ton of sense either from the VC on day 1. I’m still pretty happy with my Stick vote, especially after noticing that Illwei mentioned suspicion of her D1, so it would take a pretty convincing argument to get me to switch. I’m also going to be on a bus soon until late, so depending on how tired I am I might have 0-1 more posts this turn.
  12. Araris Valerian
    I’m going to do this first post as a bit of a stream of consciousness while rereading D1, then maybe follow up with a consolidated reads list. I give light village credence to TUN for voting me; it was like a poke vote but I feel like I am potentially a dangerous player to rouse. He also is unwilling to follow Mat onto Kas, which is a potential elim play for removing a dangerous player. Unless Kas is elim of course. Note: JNV starts the Bookwyrm voting Turtle is waffly on voting for Kas Elkanah is waffly on Bookwyrm; could be teamed with JNV but unwilling to double-up JNV goes after Turtle a bit but doesn’t vote. Elkanah continues to sus Book without voting. Xino breaks the tie between TUN and Bookwyrm while also ignoring Mat entirely. Could be elim with JNV and Elk. Nevermind, Elk switches to Bookwyrm shortly after. So Xino/Elk is most likely not e/e. Xino starts the Wizard train, with the goal of having more than 3 trains. Elkanah follows Xino again. That’s weird. Maybe they are e/e? This is also around when the tie discussion starts. Archer flags Xino, Turtle, TUN, Elk, and Wizard, doesn’t vote for any of them. Illwei is suspicious of Stick. Fits with e!Stick, given Illwei getting NKed Illwei votes Alvron and is also suspicious of Shining Stick places the second vote on Szeth Alright, based solely on D1 before weird tie things, my elim team would be <Elk, Xino, JNV, Stick, ?> Edit 1: It’s worth noting that Turtle’s post in the night included all 3 trains being village as the first possibility.
  13. Araris Valerian
    I’m still pretty sick, but I’ve independently been suspicious of Stick. I’ll do my best to get some more comprehensive thoughts out there later, but figured I’d at least get a vote down.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Nope! I’m too out of it to do anything but attempt to give you a hard time.
  15. Araris Valerian
    It just makes me smile inside that you want to kill me for completely unknown reasons instead of for exeing a (potential) elim.
  16. Araris Valerian
  17. Araris Valerian
    I was going to sign up as Chewbroccoli for this game, but I feel kinda crummy and school is going to be hectic the next while. I'm sad I'm missing a Kas game, but I'm not as young as I used to be .
  18. Araris Valerian
    You've concluded that you are not actually an elim?
  19. Araris Valerian
    I guess my take is coming from hindsight; since I switched back to Bookwyrm, this theoretical ploy from Archer failed. I never indicated my suspicion of Bookwyrm had lessened, so who else would I switch to in the case he didnt back me up? I do agree about the pressure thing though; with they way the votes were at that point, 1 vote wasn't going to threaten Xino. Refusing the Xino swap makes sense in an e/e world where Archer is only thinking in the short term, but as evidenced by this discussion, it would pretty clearly be a risky play to make on D1 when Bookwyrm was likely going to fall under suspicion again today.
  20. Araris Valerian
    It was me mixing up names. I thought I made a comment to that effect shortly afterwards. I honestly found Bookwyrm’s D1 suspicious, I think his flip provides some D1 clarity, and I think the tie shenanigans make his EOD lack of activity less relevant. I wasn’t a huge fan of Stick’s first post this cycle, and TUN clearly would fit on a team that killed Illwei. So I’d flex to either of those, but want to sit on Bookwyrm if it looks like I can push that through. I’m confused by what Archer did with the Xino vote last cycle, but I think it makes more sense for him to be village? Why would e!Archer bait me into a vote and then not follow? If Archer and Bookwyrm are e/e, he would probably have followed unless Xino was also elim, in which case it wouldn’t make sense for him to indicate willingness to move there originally.
  21. Araris Valerian
    Perhaps, but I never said there was a Mat/TUN team. Either of them alone would be willing to make that kill and even to argue for it with their teammates.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Cash voted next to Illwei last turn. So if Cash was elim, they are now the only player left there, which makes them vulnerable to VC analysis.
  23. Araris Valerian
    My activity is going to be spotty today, I’m still suspicious of Bookwyrm, and based on LG90 I would say that both Mat and TUN would advocate for a N1 Illwei kill. I’d also soft-clear Cash for being the only player to vote alongside Illwei, since usually elims want to avoid being the last living player in a group.
  24. Araris Valerian
    Is this a premise you are actually running with, and if so how is it impacting your suspicions (assuming for a moment that the tie folks were acting neutrally)?
  25. Araris Valerian
    This is why I prefer tie votes killing everyone involved. It tends to make people a lot less crazy about something that is generally unhelpful for the village but that feels fun and random to some players. Ooh, I have a better idea that Alvron would probably love. If a vote is tied, neither player dies but instead one of the tied folks is randomly chosen, then everyone who voted for them dies .
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