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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    Well, someone had to let Stick die to me having no reasons and Kas waffling...
  2. Araris Valerian
    Reads are interactions, so yes to both.
  3. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, that would be JNV. And Shining had some weird interactions. D3 was pretty short, I'd suggest you give it a read if you have the chance.
  4. Araris Valerian
    The big thing is that the elims can take a blade from someone they kill. Doing so is a bit risky because the Shaman (Alv) knew who all the blade holders were, and blades go to a random player if the elims don't nab it. Also I forgot Turtle from my list of players that started with no blade.
  5. Araris Valerian
    Shining, Chantara, Elkanah, and one other person that I read as village and don't really want to name to avoid helping the elims figure everything out.
  6. Araris Valerian
    I guess I should say something about this; I know via a PM with Kas (yeah, I had the third one and know a whole bunch of other stuff) that Chantara got Illwei's blade, and also is in the 5-person group of living players that didn't start with a blade. Presumably 3/5 elims didn't start with a blade, so Bob's your uncle and Chantara's elim.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Well, I'm not voting for you, and Chantara is elim in all worlds.
  8. Araris Valerian
    You could swap for... Aman. Or for JNV+Turtle.
  9. Araris Valerian
    e!Archer probably makes more sense in the e!JNV and e!Turtle world, to be honest. In which case I'd still peg Chantara as the 4th.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Hey, long time @Amanuensis! Glad to have you, since I could really use the help figuring this one out. I think the team is Shining, Chantara, Elkanah, and either Tani or Insanity. There's a remote possibility that Archer swaps for one of Shining/Elk because of their antagonism this cycle, but I give that low credence. There's an alternate world in which both JNV and Turtle are elims, but that is making less and less sense to me. So Turtle, Chantara. I don't see any world where Chantara is village.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Just realized that the elims aren't holding Kalak right now, so we are actually fine in regards to vote manip. At 6-4 if all the village votes together then it will go through.
  12. Araris Valerian
    But you had been softing Stick as village in your earlier reads list. That's the abrupt shift I'm talking about, and the one that is annoying to read. If you hadn't voted Stick I'd want you dead immediately, but I'm not entirely sure why e!you would go from village reading/distancing with Stick to "solidifying the vote" or whatever.
  13. Araris Valerian
    What is your take on Shining aggressively voting for Stick during D3? Do you think there was doc miscommunication that led to the rapid change of tactics?
  14. Araris Valerian
    Actually, I'm pretty sure that this means JNV tried to scan someone that was protected by Illumination. Which, despite my attempt to avoid smoker fear in the last LG, seems like a potential indicator of elim-ness Also, please get on and vote folks. There are probably 4 elims and 2 vote manip blades, so it's possible that we can't even force a tie, but we can at least hope that one of the elims is inactive enough to not vote or send in an order.
  15. Araris Valerian
    How do you know you were roleblocked? Edit: That claim weirdly reads legit to me. Definitely going to stick with my vote on Turtle. Edit 2: Who did you attempt to scan?
  16. Araris Valerian
    Turtle/JNV/Chantara/Shining, in decreasing order of suspicion. I mean, we need to consider that along with inactivity, the elim team has had poor internal communication. That sort of thing could reasonably explain e!Shining's interactions with Stick. And if all the elims jumped on Stick, that would just make them easy to catch for all being in the same place. I'll also note that we don't necessarily lose if we miss this exe. Either a blocked NK or a successful hit with Chana would leave the village up by one going into the next day.
  17. Araris Valerian
    I think I've convinced myself of e!Turtle pretty strongly. I think that explains the willingness for an early Illwei kill (Illwei is more familiar with Turtle's playstyle) and fits with Turtle making comments about an inactive elim team.
  18. Araris Valerian
    I mean, that’s not a bad place to start though. Tani, Insanity, and Chantara could be on pretty much any team I think. Edit: @Ookla the Paragrapher, you said that e!JNV would imply v!TUN. What was the reasoning for that, and is the reverse implication true?
  19. Araris Valerian
    Do you have any response to my disagreement with your take on Archer? Edit: I think I've decided that in an e!you world I would have been the D3 misexe. Then Kas gets NKed and you really have total thread control.
  20. Araris Valerian
    Okay, here’s the thing with Archer being elim. Stick just doesn’t die in this world. There’s no reason for that exe to happen. There’s plenty of lingering suspicion on people who were involved in the D1 tie, and I doubt all of them are elim. Even if a few of them are, bussing a low active teammate, or even two of them, is a way better play than losing Stick. Once Kas goes down, Archer can run thread control, and only needs one more difficult misexe to win regardless, since with 5 elims and the missed vig kill, a misexe on C3 would leave things at 5:8 going into D4, and D5 can be hammered. I was not super threatening D3 and might have gone after Archer on a theoretical non-Stick misexe D3 but I doubt I was threatening enough for the elims to bus one of their most active players. So basically, if Archer is elim then I’m sorry, but you could have already won this so I’m just going to ignore that possibility henceforth.
  21. Araris Valerian
    I… don’t trust Turtle. In fact I put Turtle slightly above Archer in terms of suspicion. However, the inactive elim team thing is still relevant, and should be taken into consideration primarily with the timing of D3 votes, since that’s when elims who didn’t vote probably wanted to.
  22. Araris Valerian
    How do you end up with Archer as an elim but completely discount me? I’m honestly a little insulted. Edit: it’s also not like the Cash exe came entirely out of the blue. Both Turtle and I had mentioned suspicion there because of his D3 voting. I also think TUN is pretty suspicious here. He was plenty happy to vote Cash last cycle with literally no reasoning and is now trying to set up the next exe on his terms based on someone else being part of that exe.
  23. Araris Valerian
    I mean, that wasn't a personal attack, it was a potential suggestion of violent action in your general direction .
  24. Araris Valerian
    I'm a little uncomfortable that you are asking this question...
  25. Araris Valerian
    I don’t think anyone has voted you this cycle? And why do you find Cash more suspicious than Tani?
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