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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, you definitely are the best exe.
  2. Araris Valerian
    He thinks you're teamed with Insanity. But you could also be with Aman or Turtle or even Tani. That's the thing, you fit on a team with literally everyone that isn't me.
  3. Araris Valerian
    I don’t need to be protected anymore though. Either I block the kill (don’t need a protect), kill an elim (one elim doesn’t need Chana), or fail to do either (and we lose regardless). In all cases protecting me doesn’t matter. Edit: I guess there’s the possibility that Ash lets you submit an action early. Also, unless Sunday in your time zone exactly overlaps with the cycles for this game, you would have a 1-2 hour window on one end where it would be N7 but not Sunday if that helps.
  4. Araris Valerian
    No, because I can attempt to murder Aman if this goes poorly . Or Insanity. Or roleblock someone. I have some options.
  5. Araris Valerian
    Sounds like a good enough excuse for me! Insanity Silho.
  6. Araris Valerian
    Well, I guess strategically it makes more sense to be voting for Insanity right now.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Honestly, your last post had good points in it, and I honestly am less convinced that you are elim. And if you are, well, there's no shame in losing to elim!Aman now, is there . Strategically, if you are willing, I'd rather kill Silho. He can be teamed with anyone that has a blade, and like you pointed out, he probably sent in the NK, so killing him will redirect Paliah to someone else.
  8. Araris Valerian
    Silho, realistically. I don't really see a world where he's village right now. And your argument is that he's Insanity's teammate anyways. I'm fine exeing either today I think.
  9. Araris Valerian
    My gut says that e!Araris would have won already. Maybe that's a little overconfident, but I think bussing Stick would have been a really bad play. I probably also wouldn't have made PMs D1, or done my info dump. I think this is your weakest argument here. I was pretty confirmed to be village at that point, and the way I was going after Chantara made it obvious that I had some extra information tat I was just unwilling to share. The safe play for you is to follow me and get some trust for the next day. A counterpoint is that Chantara was holding Paliah, which the elims really wouldn't want the village to get ahold of. I do think e!you would have advised Chantara to make a much more believable set of action claims, though JNV turning up as having been roleblocked kinda sunk any real chances there. Yeah, my bad. I was living in a 3-elim world yesterday, where e!you is teamed with e!Elk and needs that exe to not go through. v!you has more incentive to push for Insanity last cycle. You mean that e!you would have roleblocked Insanity (or had a teammate do it)? Or attempted to kill me, I suppose. The problem with this is that if elims have a path toward victory, they don't need to avoid suspicion. That's the argument I'm using to say that I didn't bus Stick and Chantara, and that I used to clear Archer. Some actions are so suboptimal that they just aren't worth doing. And here's the thing: Aman hasn't caused anything fundamentally different to happen over if I'd just been bouncing ideas off of a wall. I was the instigator of the Chanatara exe and the Elkanah exe. So in an e!Aman world we have to postulate that everything he did the last two cycles was to set up an Insanity exe this cycle. Which I guess I don't buy anymore. Aman Insanity.
  10. Araris Valerian
    I feel like this simultaneously implies that I am extremely competent and extremely incompetent at being an elim. So... thanks and oof?
  11. Araris Valerian
    I mean, if it doesn't make sense for v!Insanity, and it doesn't make sense for e!Insanity, then it's just a wash? Also your play D5 was pretty constrained if you are elim IMO. I'm just getting worse and worse vibes off of you at this point, so Aman.
  12. Araris Valerian
    Yeah but we can't win the 3-elim world by solving, we just have to get lucky with actions. So there's no point considering things that only work in that world.
  13. Araris Valerian
    I'm not sure this is relevant. I was pushing a counter-train on a villager. In what world is it useful for e!Insanity to try and get you killed over Elk? Edit: Especially if we are in the 2-elims world, that just gets Insanity auto-killed today.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Hmm, I wish I had someone I 100% knew to be elim Edit: I guess for anyone who wasn't sure, this is essentially a guarantee that you and Insanity are v/e.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Well, I would say you do, except that I was forgetting you spent all of the last cycle trying to get Insanity killed. I still feel weird that Insanity would make the same kind of action claim as Chantara did right after we killed Chantara (partly) for making that claim. But I guess the thing with Tension is you can’t just claim to have used it on people. Both e and v Insanity would have used Tension on me last night, so that doesn’t really help us. I guess in an e!Insanity world the elims could have RBed Tani and attempted to kill me. But then it would make more sense to claim to Tension Tani, and RB+attack her. Also, wouldn’t the elims want Kalak free during the night? I feel like being able to roleblock and kill Tani would be useful. Another also, what’s the deal with focusing on players that could NK last cycle, but not this cycle? If you were being consistent with your past self you’d be voting Silho right now. Edit: I don’t think Insanity/Tani is a coherent team, they could have come up with better claims for Insanity in that world
  16. Araris Valerian
    Oh yeah, Silho is the only player left that didn’t start with a blade. And you’re right that e!Tani could still be a thing because of Paliah. We have the <Aman, Tani, Cinnamon, Insanity> pool of elims that started with a blade. Aman and Tani are the only two that could also have sent the NK. Now, e!Tani has no reason to use either of her Blade abilities, though she could be holding Kalak or Jezrien as well. In an e!Aman world, he probably is holding Jezrien, and the only practical use of that blade is to find who v!Tani is protecting. There’s also just the world where the elims are Aman and Tani. I guess I’d like to hear from other people before I start tunneling on someone. I don’t have to solve this by myself.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Something tells me that in an e!Tani world I’d be somewhat dead right now. Also this game ends at outnumber, so technically there could be 3 elims left. I just really hope that’s not the case.
  18. Araris Valerian
    Yes. I have a lot of Stormlight.
  19. Araris Valerian
    Nope, I asked in my GM PM.
  20. Araris Valerian
    And apparently you can't preempt getting targeted by Tension with a Transformation action .
  21. Araris Valerian
    Welp, guess we better hope there are only 2 elims left, otherwise we are pretty much toast.
  22. Araris Valerian
    I could have been roleblocked. I wouldn’t know since I sent in a roleblock myself, which is at the same place in the OOA.
  23. Araris Valerian
    @InfiniteInsanity could you please switch your vote onto Elkanah? Nobody is going to exe Aman this turn (at least I don't think they will).
  24. Araris Valerian
    I feel like this VC fits with e!Elk better than with e!Insanity. In the v!Insanity world, you are elim way more often than Archer or Tani. And your reluctance to vote Elk makes me think that is the case more and more. The v!Insanity world is you+Elk+Turtle or just you+Elk. And that's the thing; Elk fits as elim with basically anyone that isn't Shining. Maybe even with Shining, since you don't seem to agree with me on their antagonism. I'm pretty sure in an e!Archer world I die D3 instead of Stick, Kas gets Nked, and Archer just runs thread control and wins from there. Bussing is a strictly suboptimal scenario given that neither Kas nor I was making anything like a solid argument against Stick, and Archer's reasoning was basically "Her votes look like where elims would vote". That's not the kind of suspicion you bus with, IMO, or at least not how you open the bus, given literally nobody else has mentioned suspicion up to this point. I feel my take here is fairly qualified in this regard. Edit: I'm also not sure that after we exed Chantara for having no good excuse for not having protected anyone that e!Insanity would... do the same thing? Once the honorblade list went out it would be easy to fabricate some actions that make sense and look more villagery than doing absolutely nothing.
  25. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, just read the first 2-3 pages of D5.
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