Jump to content

Araris Valerian

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4721

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    I'm already voting Archer, you know. You could make it into a party.
  2. Araris Valerian
    So {Drake, Archer} only works if one of them is a Confirmed Villager, right? Not saying that’s too implausible, since knowing what Tie Guy does could let them throw off the numbers, but it does seem risky to deliberately place yourself in a pool of people that are going to be getting exed without a ton of feedback.
  3. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, and presumably one that has only claimed one role, or has an unverified second role. I also think e!Steel makes v!Fadran more likely, though not certain. Nobody has claimed the RB on him. I guess e!Fadran means that no RB ever happened, which is possible. Aside from Fadran, is there some other instance of an e!roleblock occurring that we need to account for?
  4. Araris Valerian
    So we have either e!Steel or e!Orlok at this point, with the former seeming quite a bit more likely. That fits nicely with e!Sart, and of course we have e!Tani. e!Steel’s claim of 2 elims from the Tie Guy seems to be set up so that we’d think 2 out of Mat/Drake/Ash/Shining would be elim, or at least one of them. Right? Which seems to incriminate Archer (if both Shining and TKN are village) and to look good for Bip, Wizard, and Ada. Okay then. Fadran Archer.
  5. Araris Valerian
    V!Steel has pretty strong elimplications for e!Fadran or e!Bip (or e!me, I suppose) the former two of whom I’m pretty fine with exeing today. More for e!Fadran than Bip, but it would work with them both being elim as well. Actually, v!Steel with e!Bip and e!Sart doesn’t make a ton of sense IMO. So I’ll revisit Fadran to start things off. Oh yeah, I’m way more confident in v!Ada now. There’s no way he could have known I’d scan Orlok, and no reason for e!him to have claimed honestly about that. I suppose he could have Trolled me. But that still requires a lucky guess of who I scan, all for what I consider to be little gain, given my vocal village read of him already. Edit: Also, if Bip is elim and Steel is village, why not have Bip claim to have scanned Randby as not Trolled, after I reveal that I didn’t scan?
  6. Araris Valerian
    And Porch-Sitter. A -1 vote isn’t all that different from a +1 vote.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Why would e!Ash kill Sart? And also, why would e!Ash very helpfully provide lists of alignments, roleclaims, and other things that I haven’t bothered to keep track of myself?
  8. Araris Valerian
    I can confirm this, which means I didn’t get Trolled.
  9. Araris Valerian
    That's the thing. Everyone who is village reading him has reasons, so you have to argue against those reasons (at least, if you think it's worth the bother). I currently think he's village because of the scan, plus Sart being practically confirmed elim makes his play last cycle look pretty darned village. Up until that I was trying really hard to figure out how unlikely mechanically it would be for Ada to be elim, because his take on Steel last cycle was setting off my alarms. And your next best bet is to expand the POE. I kinda agree with the read on you, because you haven't really pushed for anything this game. It's clear that much/all of that has been due to IRL stuff on your end, but in my opinion, SE is a guilty-until-proven-innocent kinda world, and we are starting to run out of people that haven't been scanned. Among those you haven't really given us much to work with. I will say I'm not sure what my take on Sart's post last cycle was though. He wouldn't have expected to die, but was aware that Ada was strongly pushing for his exe and that some other folks agreed. If Steel is/was village, then I'm not so sure you're elim, because his post could have saved Steel and gotten you killed. On the flip side, if Steel was elim, I'm not entirely sure what e!Sart gets out of claiming there, except potential distancing with you. And of course, if Ada has bamboozled us all and we don't catch him then you can say, "I told you so!" when we all get banned
  10. Araris Valerian
    He’s only got the thread control we give him. And actually, feeling threatened by a player with thread control feels like an elim perspective to me, based on how I approached things in the AG.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Adavantos. The guy that thinks you are an elim. Lots of people are confusing him with this other guy, Aman, who hasn’t been around for quite as long.
  12. Araris Valerian
    Ada was generally unconvinced that Steel was elim and consistently pushed for a Sart exe the entire cycle. I suppose now we should ask ourselves again if we think Steel was elim, because in a v!Steel world I think the players that shifted quickly to vote Sart would be very likely to be village. I don’t really want to consider this, but there is also the remote possibility that Sart was village and just repeated the term in thread that folks had been using, while actually being an Analyst. Just going to throw that on the table, since Sart seemed disengaged enough to possibly make a mistake like that.
  13. Araris Valerian
    That would be telling now, wouldn't it? But actually, I kinda want to avoid a Randby situation, so I'm going to act when I deem it best.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Uh. How about no. But I appreciate the suspicion, it should stop the elims from NKing me .
  15. Araris Valerian
    Well, Bip is a much more believable lie here, I think. So far as I can tell, nobody is super suspicious of me, and my alignment is also tied to Orlok’s, at least in one direction.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Okay, yeah. That makes a lot more sense. I do think there is a chance Sart is village, but that seems to not be the most obvious first conclusion anymore.
  17. Araris Valerian
  18. Araris Valerian
    Sadly, no, I can’t cause a double exe. Can someone remind me what the Threadmaster role does, and why it is now obvious that Sart was one? I’m also now mildly concerned that Biplet was opposed to voting Steel and preferred Fadran as an alternative, given that Sart claimed to have a red scan on Bip. I’m maybe a bit suspicious of Mat also for immediately jumping to the conclusion that Sart’s claim was “obviously fake”, which I didn’t quite see. Doesn’t it make sense for an alignment scanner to hold off as long as possible until claiming, given the amount of disruption and the fact that they can disclose results post-mortem?
  19. Araris Valerian
    As much as I'd like to consider it, e!Ada is one of the less plausible worlds for us right now. I have enough respect for him and his potential gambits that I won't dismiss it, but for now I think his defense of Steel and suspicion of Sart are honest. That being said, I'm still not really convinced about Sart, and if we are going to consider not exeing Steel today, then I'd prefer Fadran as the alternative, since he is the easiest place for the elims to have been able to disrupt a scan from clearing v!Steel. I will also acknowledge that the elims have a lot to gain from stopping that scan, since it keeps us from using the Tie Guy results at all.
  20. Araris Valerian
    Then why aren't you voting Fadran?
  21. Araris Valerian
    Do we have any confirmation the Lynchbait role does what Striker said it does? I feel like someone copied it but don't remember.
  22. Araris Valerian
    We don't really need Sart to account for an extra RB or anything though, do we? Plenty of folks could have extra roles or simply be lying about the roles they claim to have. There's no stated upper limit on the number of roles for a player, is there? (note, I think 2 is max, but we can't 100% assume that) Is there a world where both Sart and Steel are elim? Sart being a RB would help elims have enough disruption for messing with the scan. I suppose this implies minimal activity/thread control from the elims, since that would mean all the discussion today has been on elims, and there hasn't been a strong push toward anyone else.
  23. Araris Valerian
    Well, I'd say if I was playing it safe I'd just say Randby was Trolled then. That does bring us back to Ada's point, why would my team burn a roleblock and a Troll if I wasn't willing to risk a bit more to get Steel exed? I'll also say that Drake's line of reasoning is worth following in the case where Steel is elim as well. In that world there are 2 cases; the elims either think they disrupted the scans enough to stop Steel from getting exed (and thus would probably be overrepresented in the Sart voters: Ada, Archer, Ash, and TJ), or they realized quickly that they hadn't/didn't really try, in which case the mid-late Steel voters would be more suspicious.
  24. Araris Valerian
    I will point out that in a v!Steel, e!me world I would have just claimed to have scanned Randby as not having been Trolled. Or as having been Trolled, if my team had been unable to account for Biplet, though in that case it would have made sense for me to wait for Biplet's claim, since that would potentially let me lie about the Troll if I'd known she scanned Wiz.
  25. Araris Valerian
    What's your most likely alternative explanation? I think we are living in a realm of implausible worlds, so just because e!Steel sounds weird doesn't prevent it from being the best explanation.
×
×
  • Create New...