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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    Yeah. And depending on the starting elims, if they already converted then they might have taken the vote of their target into account.
  2. Araris Valerian
    I'm kinda in an "elims weren't under thread" world for the C1 votes. Hence my earlier post considering TKN and Stick in regards to side trains. However, if we're being honest, TKN was never really an option, so Fifth and Kas are the only potential elims that the Fadran train would have protected. I have v!Kas credence right now (bolstered by his village read on Bookwyrm from last cycle), so exeing Fifth would confirm in my eyes if the elims had motive for the Fadran train.
  3. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I really only got onto him because of Tie Guy and the fact that we caught Steel. He was pretty convincing as a villager in our PM.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Says the person on a side train. Unless you think all the elims voted Fadran, this doesn't make sense. My point has basically nothing to do with Fadran's alignment, and more that elims tend to avoid voting together when they can. This extends to any potential convert they made.
  5. Araris Valerian
    He's just charging up my porch powers. So Stick and Kas have both been somewhat adamant in my PMs with them that TKN is village. Kas's method of reasoning seems to be consistent with how I think v!him approaches things. I'm not really sure about Stick though. It seems like quite an odd hill to want to die on during D1 over someone who didn't really contribute a lot of content (directly, at least). But I'm also not sure that is something the elims would do. I was literally the only TKN voter that stuck to my guns (surprising, given that Ardalan would have taken a bribe), so he wasn't really in danger. On the flip side, if we are in an e!TKN world then it makes sense to try and stop anyone from coming back and reconsidering him. And of course, this is relevant because Stick, TKN, and Mat are the only living players that vote on 2-person side trains, so I feel like there are decent odds on of them is elim. So I guess I'll vote Stick for now.
  6. Araris Valerian
    My team guess: And to echo Drake, @Ashbringer you were a lifesaver with your lists. There was no way I was doing any rereads this game. Also, good game everyone! Apparently my incompetence foiled the forces of evil once again. Best part of the elim doc:
  7. Araris Valerian
    My porch is still intact!
  8. Araris Valerian
    Well, I wouldn’t say it’s every game that TKN literally asks a bunch of folks to vote for him.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Assuming he lives that long
  10. Araris Valerian
    If you were one of 2 elims and you needed to get 7 votes to unlock your role, you would just sit and do nothing?
  11. Araris Valerian
    Operation: Pretend to be Competent has succeeded! I can’t usually make D1 reads worth a rotten porch. But, killing is people is fun, and helps us win the game, so picking kinda at random and making something up is what I usually do. I’m currently enjoying obliging TKN’s request to be killed (since the whole point of votes is either to kill someone or threaten to kill them). In regards to TKN specifically, I think in any world where that is a snapping condition, TKN would make the play he made. Regardless of alignment. I also think that is a legitimate condition to give to an eliminator; it draws a lot of attention and thus creates a significant risk/reward scenario. For a villager, the risk and reward are both a bit lower since any single village life/role is less impactful on the game compared to a single eliminator. So from a fun/game design perspective, giving this snap condition to an elim fits pretty well.
  12. Araris Valerian
    I mean, Ada hasn't 100% proven Troll either, since e!Bip could have been a Troll. And verifying my role requires there to be some ambiguity about who is Trolled/whether a Troll happens regardless, so the two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.
  13. Araris Valerian
    We can cook up something with Ada tonight to prove my Meme-maker. Or at least give some extra confidence that it’s real. Though I’m not sure why e!me and e!Bip would decide to call a fake role meme-maker. That doesn’t really have anything to do with Trolling at face value. And again this comes back to my lack of a scan on Randby, which doesn’t make sense from e!notMeme!me.
  14. Araris Valerian
    If I'm elim then you pretty much also have to believe that Wiz is elim, or that there is a living elim Troll currently, who didn't attempt to interfere with Ada/Drake the last two cycles.
  15. Araris Valerian
    The latter requires no subversion, just the two of you being teamed. Whereas Wiz, who scanned me, has been scanned himself. Not to mention the help he gave to Ada and Drake with coordinating defense. If the elims have any disruption abilities left, they most certainly haven't given us any indication that's the case. And I think I've reasonably demonstrated both of my roles at this point, which should lower CV credences if you want to go there.
  16. Araris Valerian
    This… makes a whole lot more sense than e!Ada.
  17. Araris Valerian
    So, there’s nothing saying we have to unvote TKN once he hits 7, no?
  18. Araris Valerian
    But unless the game is ending this cycle, that doesn't matter. We have 3 people to kill (if we ungenerously include myself), and 2 exes plus a NK in the next cycle and a half.
  19. Araris Valerian
    It is not possible! I honestly don't expect the game to still be going at that point. But I give e!you a lot of credit, and you'll never convince me you don't deserve it . Figured I might as well lay down my cards now so it doesn't come as a surprise if we get there. In a situation where it is me, you, Wiz, and Drake, I think you're the most plausible elim.
  20. Araris Valerian
    I'm definitely going to push to exe Ada the next day if you and Mat both go down without the game ending. It's hard to say what all has gone wrong for the elims this game, but my take is that they quickly would have realized that they need to put one of their players (ideally a Confirmed Villager) in a position where said player would not get hit by a NK, would not be suspicious for the elims avoiding them, and also to have public support in the thread. Otherwise there isn't really any chance for them to win. Ada seems to fit that profile. Drake honestly does as well, but I've found Ada's actions in thread to be a lot more suspicious than Drake's. I can see a world in which Tani doesn't have a super useful role, or becomes busy IRL and volunteers to get killed to earn Stick/Drake some trust.
  21. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I get plus one vote for always being suspicious for lounging on my porch. And nobody can NK me because they think they can just get me exed instead.
  22. Araris Valerian
    This should really read 4 votes on me
  23. Araris Valerian
    The nice thing about JNV's scan is that it basically proves either he or Biplet is elim. Or both.
  24. Araris Valerian
    Ash’s list has him as both a Goalkeeper and a Troll. Which honestly seems like a pretty useful combination for the elims to have. But if he’s also a Confirmed Villager, which would be required to dodge the Striker scan (which I don’t think could be Trolled?), then that’s 3 roles. I’m not sure any of my scans have been relevant to this game so far, so I suppose Bip and I both being elim and fake-claiming the same role works. In addition to what I said during the night, I’m not sure why e!me claims my NK immunity (while actually being NK immune). My +1 vote is confirmed (and my clarifying that was useful in clearing Ada), so any e!me explanation needs to account for some role that is strong enough to need a downside.
  25. Araris Valerian
    So we have e!JNV or e!Bip (or both), e!Sart (probably), e!Tani, e!Steel, e!someone in the first Tie Guy, and I guess 1 more. Honestly at this point Ada is the person I'd most consider as being a Confirmed Villager. The only thing that kept me from voting for him earlier was Striker's scan, which presumably gets foiled by CV. He was adamant about Steel being village. He also resisted my own push against Biplet on the basis of her role not fitting an elim team. We have an unaccounted for elim Troll (this could have been Bip). It might be better to exe me sooner rather than later, because of the +1 vote thing. Not sure there are enough elims left for that to matter though. My personal preference is JNV -> Mat, then I'd push for Ada the next day, but expect to get exed meyself then. If Ada is elim, then he probably isn't a Troll (judging by the 2 role max we've seen so far, though no confirmation that is a hard rule), and Bip was instead. So we can test that by having him Troll someone during the night and I can scan. e!me would of course say that there was no Troll, but if I do report a Troll, then that would clear him in my mind for good.
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