Illwei
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Everything posted by Illwei
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Just like I'm partially working off of the assumption that Xino might have not noticed I switched off of Mat, is it possible that a teammate of Xino didn't realize that Xino was a coinshot....is it possible they thought he had a different blessing that started with a P....
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I definitely don't think Conq is an Elim right now, if only for how confident and unconcerned about other's view of him he seems to be, like when he was pushing you and me. It could be him trying to take control of the game after his teammate went down, going all out on both you and I being teamed is somewhat of a good look. I also think that Shqueeves and Turtle shouldn't be overlooked too much right now. Shqueeves definitely felt like very emotionless and calculated on D1 to me, which could be written off as some sort of rust, but It's still there. Also @SymphonianBookworm exists, but hasn't talked much at all
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Mrrrr.... Do you think I'm an elim because of it? At the time I had no clue how vote manip would work, if you're an elim then it's always worth saving yourself even if you lose your one shot, one cycle is enough. With xino flipping coinshot especially, if I was an Elim vote manip (that exists right, I swear it did when I read the rules but I'm gonna look really stupid if it doesn’t) then I would, if the votecount was 3 on xino to 2 on Mat (which it was, like 2 hours before eod, when I took my vote off mat) then using vote manip, plus xino voting, would be worth it.
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Sorry, editing, am on mobile didn't see your rank
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@_Stick_ I don't remember who was on at rollover. Also wrt JNV, posts like that I think are NAI for him as that's what he posts. I do want to pressure Turtle right now a little more, for their similar, yet not similar post. I know it's thier first game back in a bit, but still even in games before I've seen them say things that are more substantial...or not even that, but.... I've seen them be more curious or confused or anything other than this.
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I don't even know what people think I haven't adressed about my suspicions Ask about my reads and you shall recieve, because I thought I already put everything out there yesterday.
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Haha wow....the elims thought my reads have merit and influence
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Araris Mat TUN Never kill araris, don't kill Mat, and tun is probably village.
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What? I'm talking specifically about the world where I'm village. Of course if I'm village I wouldn't tie, which is why I didn't. In a world where I am an elim however, I would. That's the point. And the fact that I /didnt/ increases the likelihood that I am a villager. That's not even my main point though. @Conquestor does make a good point about mat though, especially with how easy it felt to get xino over. But thus could also be attributed to what we've talked about already with people in different timezones who couldn't be in that 4 hour eod time frame as well as people like turtle or bookworm who weren't around at all. And yeah. The xino vote. Say it's distancing but leaving Mat alive until we absolutely need to kill him is my strategy right now.
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Signal boosting yet again XINO EDITED HIS LAST POST It was originally a naked vote on Mat which is what prompted me to switch to xino. I was on squeezes because I didn't have much opinion about Xino other than his opener being performative. When he naked voted mat there it was practically an outing vote, and not knowing the votecount I immediately switched to Xino, worrying that Mat was about to die instead of him. I can only assume Mat thought this too, though it could have been pure self preservation from him. I think he might not have realized that I was not on Mat anymore, and thought his vote would tie and save him. When he realized it wouldn't, he swapped to Kas, which Mat was on and there was potential for me to swap to. I might even have swapped if i didn't see the Mat vote first. It's not really relevant in the long run but i think it's important people see it right now because the fact that xino voted Mat first and not Kas means that Mat is town If Mat was an elim then xino would have voted Kas first and not Mat, because he would have known that was the most likely to survive, with Mat and I already having engaged about my thoughts on kas' alignment. @Araris Valerian The point is above but I'll address it again because it's a direct response to you saying I'm no more or less cleared off of this: Xino voted Mat at 7:59 and I switched to xino. If I was an elim I had already opened up the option to switch to Kas at eod, and instead I voted Shqueeves. If I had voted Kas then Xino would have been able to make a last minute switch and save himself. Before you say that this would have been incriminating, it wouldn't really, and if anything Mat would have also been incriminate, giving me room, and also an extra kill for my faction.
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The reason my and matrim's votes sre clearing is because of the timing. When xino made his vote on matrim it was 7:59, with rollover at 8. If matrim is an elim, then there would be no reason to be waiting at the end if the cycle and no reason to change your vote right away the moment you see the person you were voting trying to change.
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I feel confident that I'm cleared off the xino vote? I don't know what the votecount was when Xino made his vote. I think his vote on Mat was when he was at 3 votes (shining/conq/Araris). I think, that while one of those might also be an Elim, I also think bussing the coinshot isn't the first choice for anyone. Definitely opens up more possibility for bookworm to be an Elim, but also there is the fact that the train on xino didn't really actually gain traction until almost EoD. ABOUT THE XINO VOTES Xino's first vote on him was from Shining, as a initial poke vote you have to assume, so that's pretty NAI. my first thought was that it was most likely not an Elim because of Xino's being a coinshot, but as the cycle went on, the vote never changed. Not only that, but when Shining popped in later, at a time when Xino had been tied with Mat and Stick, they didn't take their vote off, even though it was a poke vote and would have been normal to change. The second vote didn't happen until 4 hours before EoD, and was Matrim. this moved the votecount from being Araris (3): Stick, Illwei, Wiz Wiz (2): Mat, Xino to Araris (3): Stick, Illwei, Wiz xino (2): Shining, Mat Think it's interesting that Wiz was most likely on Araris for pure preservation, and had little to say otherwise. After Mat took his vote off of Wiz and moved it on to xino, Wiz came back to thread, took his vote off of Araris, and then left again. Before the next moves onto Xino, Both me and Wiz take our votes off of Araris, and the main wagons shift again. xino (2): Shining, Mat Stick (2): Araris, JNV Matrim (2): Illwei, Kasimir I find this interesting, because I previously expected to find that the Araris movement onto Xino was for self preservation, but that's not the case, obviously, because at the time when Araris voted on Xino, Araris himself only had one vote. @Araris Valerian is there a reason you moved onto xino? My impression was it was to stop a tie, but for all your commentary about explaining things earlier, you didn't explain your vote on a flipped Elim. When conq makes his vote the votecount went from xino (3): Mat, Shining, Araris Mat (1): Kas Stick (1): JNV Araris (1): Stick Kasimir (1): xino TUN (1): Conq to xino (4): Mat, Shining, Araris, Conq Mat (1): Kas Stick (1): JNV Araris (1): Stick Kasimir (1): xino Which was the least influential vote, ignoring both my an matrim's votes made later (when i was unaware of the votecount, and I assume he was too, at a level). Summary? Mat, Me, and Araris are the most likely villagers on the Xino train. Conq is the most likely Elim, and Shining is a second choice if there has to be an Elim on the train. ABOUT XINO'S POSTS that Xino's last post of the cycle was originally exactly: Which is what prompted me and mat to move back onto Xino, and then explains mat's post after that Reminder to players that if you make an edit always make an edit note, not just rewrite over an old message. The last minute change to Kas does make me think that Kas is more likely to be an Elim. I'm getting distracted while working on a third thing so I'm just gonna post this now and come back later
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Xino
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I just don't want to kill kas when he hasn't interacted with me at all EDIT: perhaps this view should extend to shqueeves though
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Mat, Araris, Wizard, TUN Stick, Conq, JNV Xino, Kas, Shqueeves
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I agree with Shqueeves, especially because his posts feel controlled and disconnected. Kas dropping his RP so early makes me feel like he is more likely to be an Elim, when in reality it's probably NAI, but I do think it's more likely to be an Elim slightly because of how little is going on and how little there is so comment on. This is a useful sentence. I had immediate negative reactions to both Araris and Xino, with re evaluations on Araris I'm pretty okay calling mat town for the moment.
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assuming I'm not illiterate Matrim
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While I initially agreed with Stick on being mrr about Araris, I think that his explaination makes less sense for him to put out there as an elim than as a villager, but it's still plausible that he's an Elim. If he is, I think TUN's Elim equity potentially goes up though, which also wouldn't make sense to me much with Araris' usual elim play. The most likely motivation for that post from E!Araris would be to work with me to try and get me to stop voting him, but I find this less likely? it could also be a simple post to try and enter into the game, which would be from either alignment. One hold up is that I definitely expected a retalitory vote, as I've gotten them many a time before from Araris. that's basically my only hold up with that. (After reading over LG88 again though I find that I actually don't have a problem with it as Araris behaved similarly there, and the only thing that would be a potential red flag is the explaination instead of the agreement, but we live and learn from previous games so perhaps Araris saw the confusion there from people not knowing what I meant and decided to explain here. The point is that Araris probably isn't an Elim here especially not for any reasoning that I've said which makes this whole paragraph very pointless :P) That and TUN posting about not liking Araris, unvoting, and not acting on it. I don't see an Aligned TUN/Araris posting what they did, especially Araris with assuming my reasoning (practically). After some sleep I don't really know why I thought that TUN Was village for that post, even though at the time it was what Araris said. I think that Mat and TUN being likely unaligned was enough for me to call TUN more likely village, but still that wasn't the whole of it and i don't like that read anymore, but moreso becuause I think that there's likely something fishy in Stick/TUN/Araris. I agree with Conq that Wizard isn't behaving much different than other games, besides seeming slightly less excited about the game than last time I played with him. I think that Matrim jumping on that is interesting because of how I remember him approaching wizard in LG88. Not Teamed: TUN/Araris TUN/Matrim Araris/Matrim
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Tun is likely village and if he's not he's never on a team with Mat Araris
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For some reason I thought this started on Sunday The Unknown Novel Alcatraz 6 comes out this week I'm so excited
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IllWei I suppose
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Is this a request to not be pinged/put on busy on the sheet?
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Quick Fix Game 62: He Who Arises In Might
Illwei replied to Fifth Scholar's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I was about to sign up when I saw .... -
Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!
Illwei replied to The Unknown Medallion's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I hope to play with @Conquestor and @Luckspren in more games, i enjoyed playing with you guys. -
Sorry, I'll pass, my qf ruleset is more of a BT now
