Illwei

I'm too tired of this so I'm going to go ahead and Claim. I'm the one who shot wiz, that's why I cared so much that the coinshot claimed. Last night I was a lurcher and protected myself, N1 i was a tineye and did nothing. go ahead and call me an Elim if you want to lose the game. EDIT: also yay whysper <3

Wish people would stop killing my village reads. Would be nice. Matrim We're at what is probably 7 v 4 right now. Which means that tomorrow we will be at, at worst, well, lost. worst case scenario we lose tomorrow. so think about that, ok guys ? I haven't had the time to go back through things yet, but with xino and jnv now dead I'm practically out of strong townreads.

Matrim Conq TUN Archivist Silver Danex This is where me PoE is at, roughly. Not ordered, so if i were to pull people out of it it would probably be Danex and TUN, but don't quote me on TUN yet. You can quote me on Danex. I'll quote this If anyone cares to read it, maybe you didn't see it because it was posted so close to rollover. it's my post from last night. Not sure how much I stand by right now.

I think this is a good place to start. Higher activity people should never be vigged, they're catchable off of posting where inactives aren't. Conq specifically, even if he's replaced we have to start from ground 0 on a new player and it's going to be hard especially when that's a prime time to push domeone easily.

Don't feel obligated to make long posts with lots of quotes in then Shining. It's perfectly fine to have short responses, with every now and then collecting them into a big post, or of you have a solid opinion on someone, collecting all your thoughts on that into one big post. Again, Archer and shining are my current two top townreads.

No, he means illwei. Unless he /also/ means devo, which would be funny. @Shining Silhouette ftr, silly terminology thing, but rioter/soother is a manip role. It's an action manip, not vote- but still manipulation role. As for agenda, I'd like to pressure conq and silver tomorrow. I don't think that ita simply this easy for conq, but when people are easy to find as village (such as wiz) when they're not immediately findable its always a little worrisome .

The tineye message isn't meant to be a code, don't know why you assume it would be. It's simply info (useless, albeit)

the supposed lack of care surrounding everything implied by your lack of participation in the cycle and only gut read on turtle

I don't believe that they're village wholeheartedly, I am saying that it's best for thread if we act like they are village for now.

That's everyone who hasn't checked in today yet. I just wanted to make sure someone didn't skim and miss it. @Cinnamon why do you think Shadow is V? in your post all you say is that you're inclined to believe her claim of being village, but in that comment you basically talk about all the reasons to doubt? Matrim what is your world looking like right now?

Cinnamon claimed coinshot who shot stick If none of you are going to counterclaim that, then we are going to treat cinnamon as if they are a village coinshot. We'll talk about who we want cinnamon to shoot in the night cycle, but we should not let that fact eat up discussion if none of these people counterclaim the shot on Stick.

@Cinnamon 1) Blue text is reserved for talk about real life: outside circumstances that you can't avoid that will have an impact. we try not to use it though. 2) Can you try again? I don't want to hear specific reads you had last night, just your top 3 and bottom three. NO explaination needed Matrim Conq TUN Shining Illwei JNV Shadow Archivist Silver Danex Xino Archer Bookwyrm

No, Wiz would have redirected their power to stick.

What do you mean by this? who would have been being counter intuitive? It's possible for Wiz to have been a rioter and cin be vil.

I don't think that Wiz's shooter needs to claim. Unless they're about to die, it does no good besides painting a target on their back. @Cinnamon Also while you're at it (my last post) do you want to talk about why you chose to shoot Wiz? Who else were you deciding between? Why didn't you shoot anyone yesterday?

Hey cinnamon, what's your head at right now? can you give me 3 village reads and 3 Elim reads off the top of your head?

Whoever killed Stick needs to claim. This is because you shot a villager. Yes people might try and kill you for it but there's good reason, because you shot a villager who wasn't in the immediate PoE, or at least shouldn't have been because of her actions. More likely this is an Elim mistborn who made this move. Going into today I'd like to look at the stick voters in particular because not only did she flip village, but basically all of the votes were for her voting without giving explainations. I might be biased here in my thinking but that's a towny move because when you're able to avoid suspicion it's easy to. but when you're villaging you're not worried about avoiding suspicion. it's not a 100% obviously, but it's a partial. I'd also like for myself and hopefully some others to look through not only wizard's posts, but all mentions of Wizard and come up with some conclusions based on that. By looking at how people treated wizard vs. all the flipped villagers we can try to get an idea of who his teammates are. I'll start off with saying that with Stick dead Xino's Village equity rises- he had some moments where if stick wasn't his partner he would have put himself in strange situations that he didn't need to. I still believe that Archer is village based on Devo's actions And I want to townread TUN, so if anyone has any reasoning why i should be I am very open to it.

Why is alv the elim kill and not Stick?

I'm going to assume that Alv was the coinshot. Could be an Elim mistborn, or could not. Stick dying makes sense but I was hoping it wouldn't happen. Matrim

ILLWEI'S PROCESS (i'm a little sidetracked through writing this if things seem misplaced lol) Planning for tomorrow Maybe this should be the last part of this post, but I'll start off with it. Tomorrow we should be going in with 15-16 people, and I'm going to take the safest assumption and assume there's five (5) elims left. This means that - assuming no coinshots - we have three (3) more misexes available. So going into tomorrow, I would like everyone to try and have a list of eight (8) people (yes, this is basically half the playerlist, especially with yourself removed) that they think the elims are within. This involves finding 7 villagers (or 6, depending), which i get is a lot of people for me to ask you to trust. Pt 1: Partnerships In big games I have a hard time getting a foothold in the game and reading people, because although a lot of my reads are at the micro level (post to post) a big part of it comes from the game as a whole being- who's driving it, where are they going, how do the people interact together, ect. Things that you normally see while spectating because you're not in the game and distracted and therefore have a more holistic view of everything. So basically if it looks like my reads are all over the place (yes I'm talking about my xino read) then thats the reason. Right now I've just been trying to look and see if I think people are connected, so I'm going to start there with those thoughts. Despite there being like 100 posts both cycles I don't have much here still. for the new players: this strategy is often terribly inaccurate in general, and it involves going through thread and assuming everyone is an elim. I'll read the things they post and react to and specifically look at how they interact with certain players. Once i collect all my thoughts, my theoretical partnerships will be weighted the least when trying to assemble likely teams. Pt. 2: Micro Reads Normally I work almost exclusively in micro reads the first few days, because it makes it easier than having to try and see some sort of big picture. These are similar to partnerships because I'm going off of specific posts and oneliners. Again, I'll try to go through as much as I can before it's tomorrow, but right now I'm pretty much grasping at straws trying to pull out 5 people i think are pretty villagery. then tomorrow I'll try to work and pull 2-3 more people out. for newer players: I'm not talking about exclusively gut/vibe reads, as those are usually more of a gateway into an actual read, and not a micro read themselves. I'm talking about looking at a single post (usually a small one, not something like a readslist) or a specific action that a player has made, and justifying it from one perspective or another. If you read something and something feels off that's one thing, but what you're trying to do is identify the intentions made behind the post, if there are any. Shining: I mentioned this yesterday, but I'll say it again that i think this post is one that makes Shining more village. Shining starts the game with "first" and TUN responds "second", and so Shining votes (albeit a starting vote) TUN for "blending in." this at the very least implies comfortability with the thread (not neccesarily AI) but also some level of themselves being the normal-being village. Stick: Not a specific post that I'm going to both posting, just the action of voting mat at SoD2. Coming in with a "I'm going to reread D1" and then immediately going in with a vote on one of the most vocal players at the moment isn't something I see an Elim without a strong support team doing. (therefore this read crumbles if the elims are all vocal, or more townread.) Stick almost died yesterday, and there would have been safer paths for an Elim to take than diving in headfirst at Matrim. Bookwyrm: While this doesn't neccesarily show a deeper level of thought- honestly it's pretty surface level throughout, but i like the parenthetical. flimsiest reason so far, and i don't really believe it lol. but the edit is villagery because of how much thought is typical of an elim to go into their messages. to post that (theoretically without rereading) and then to go back in and say the same thing about multiple people. JNV: Again no quote gonna go here, but it's his readlist. not the content really, but how he elaborates on Matrim and not really on anyone else. this both implies to me that there was actual thinking going on about matrim. Archer: This isn't an Archer read, there isn't really anything to read archer on right now. I do think that Devo was more likely village than not, even though I am going to go back to read Kas's post again (i find the formatting hard to dissect). The read on Devo is pretty much based on her unvote at EoD. it's not something i really see Devo doing as an elim because of course people are going to wonder about it and ask about it. -- Cinnamon this is....for sure a post. I keep coming back to it, because i feel like it has something. my first question is @Cinnamon what do you think the difference is? why would a post seem elim to you, since elim isn't a feeling, an emotion, a motivation, a type of sentence. so what in a post would make you think it's from an Elim? you say instead it looks like he's trying to stay alive. That is, honestly, one trait of Elims. Villagers want to solve the game, and elims want to stay alive. sometimes they overlap but if it looks like someone is purely motivated by trying to survive then they're perfectly fine to mark down as a suspicion. I want to call this post village for the unvote and implied turnaround. I can't though because that's silly because it's an NAI post. so I keep coming back to it and hoping it gives me something more. I will go ahead and call this villagery for the silly argument that saying "i forgot" twice is suspicious. Also a flimsy read. Where does that leave me at. Matrim - I don't think i can call him town. I think there was some things with him v. Kas (maybe barely) but I might be misreading that. again, like devo, something i need to go back and look at tomorrow. Wizard - I like that they specifically say that they're trying to change up things to a degree, but I also think that they were obvious village in the other games I've seen them in and until i see that again I can't call them village. Conq - Honestly this is mostly because conq is not here. Conq is easily findable, aggressive, and involved. Or at least he has been. For him to drop off so much and basically come in here to only be like "wow...that's off" is. well. off. TUN - though i think so many people who have interacted with him come out looking more villagery, he still doesn't. He was also the Cw to Ash in the early bits of D1 (for 0 reason basically, but still) and that died out incredibly fast and for no real reason. I'd love to hear why people think that he's town. Shadow - Honestly it's an activity thing. I acknoledge I haven't seen a village game from her, but I can't just brush aside that she would have killed kas, because I was thinking it before she said anything. The real question there then - what would a team look like where they give shadow the kill? because she's new to the site as well as low activity. Archivist - Nothing here, legitimately. lol. Silver - again, I have nothing. Danex - his words feel forced this game, but really, nothing. these three are my legitimate nulls. Alv - I want to call him village for his most recent interaction with mat, as well as i agree he's less likely to make the Kas N1. but until i get solid reasoning he stays in my PoE. I'm hoping one of these people dies tonight, honestly lol. that would make my life easier. Again, If anyone has reasoning for anyone being town that I don't have I'd love to hear it- same with anyone i have as town that they don't agree with. if you want to disagree with me by going "i don't think your argument for them being town holds up" in any way then I'm not interested in hearing it. Not because I don't think it has validity but because if i make a read on someone to be village it's something that I've thought about already and don't care to hear "no you're wrong" without a different reasoning being provided as to why you think so. Pt. 3: Voting [To be Continued....]

It's at 1 a direct comparison to their last elim game, where they were basically frozen and provided nothing no opinions and their posts resembled jnv's as elim I like their jnv read because jnv is an easy person to misread as elim or easy to push, and I was thinking the same thoughts about jnv before they mentioned it. So the answer is vaguely general posting

Stick is useful as village, so maybe this is silly of me, but I do townread turtle right now even if it's slightly. I'm much less worried about making mistakes in big games because even with green flips the game will become clearer easier no matter what later imo. I would be willing to move onto cin or Mat, I suppose. I just don't think turtle should die today.

Devo/turtle/jnv village, turtle tentative but i agree strongly with the jnv read and its been something I've been thinking about for a bit. Mat I'd like you to think about how many people are in this game, and previous elim games from me. Maybe it's just me but my progression is NAI at worst. It's obviously unordered and chaotic, and that's what makes it blatant that real thoughts are happening imo. If I was an elim a believable easy progression would be easy to fake but I'm not trying to fake a read on anyone, I'm just saying what's on my mind. I wanted to townread xino the first time because of how relaxed and easy his first few posts felt and then it went from there.

obligatory no one cares (politely) don't mention other games even if they're on MU because if you can't handle playing two games then don't but don't expect people to change their reads on you because you're in a different game as well I think turtle should be a little harder to catch than their last elim game was for me, but I do think they're fine to give a pass rn. they have been a bit self focused but I'm fine for now. this was probably the worst vote you could make at this time lol, just regardless, he's one of the only people posting and so we can't afford to lose that. (this is the bare minimum) I like the engagement from stick but the jury is still out. Personally I would like to kill Xino today, to sort things out, probably because I haven't had a lot of time to think this cycle. I think resolving the wagons yesterday could start giving us more info to go off of, especially for coinshots. otherwise if we hit another villager who was kind of irrelevant to yesterday we're at a slightly different D1

i'd say that votecount looks pretty promising wouldnt u