|TJ|
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It's the latter. I don't suspect you as an elim. Though I wouldn't put you in the village pile either. As for my vote this cycle, Frozen Mint gave a rather flimsy reason for their vote on Silber. They just said between Pyro, Silber and Straw they find Silber most suspicious, which isn't much. Their reasoning for their suspicion on me odd ( I can understand Eternum's reasons but not Mint's), and they were the 4th vote on Lord Sil, and out of all voters of Lord Sil (except Pyro who voted for self defence), I find them the most suspicious. I did not say I'll mostly stay quiet. I said me staying quiet during the first cycle shouldn't be alignment indicative.
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After a psychologically draining cycle in LG, I'm half tempted to just rage-lynch Pyro, but I'll attempt to make some analysis. Before that, some thoughts on posts after I left. @Straw, I don't agree with your read on Gears because you think a new elim player would be more cautious/ hesitant to post first. Gears seems largely enthusiastic about SE, being the first one to sign up, so it wouldn't be a stretch to chalk up their first post to enthusiasm. They could also be encouraged by their teammates to post as soon as possible if they were elim. This post very much feels like they peer review their posts with their teammates. They could possibly be using their knowledge as an elim that Lord Sil is a villager to gain a favor. I find the xino bit more suspicious that the "I'm not elim bit". Why mention they were looking forward to playing with them? It looks like it came out of nowhere. Also, how would you know they were villager if they were alive and playing alongside you? Hmm? I suggested Lord Sil's lynch as an alternative to Pyro's lynch, whom you voted for by the way. Weird that you'd say I wasn't contributing in a real way when you voted for the player I suggested. It's also weird that in your previous analysis post, you gave me a mild village read saying I've been lying low but I'm less bandwagon-y and encouraged some discussion pertaining to Straw. What changed between the two posts? You claim I'm still lying low, but I've definitely been more active after your first analysis post as compared to before it. Reads can change obviously, but the reasoning you gave is odd and untrue. I repeat, my vote on Lord Sil is not because they tinfoiled. Rather because they seem to choose Fifth over xino despite them believing they were a team, giving no reason why they chose Fifth over xino. Mine was just the 2nd vote on them, and I did not prompt anyone to build on the lynch. I was waiting for Lord Sil to explain their reasoning on why they chose Fifth over xino. I only suggested an alternative lynch on Sil when prompted by Straw out of the pool of players he mentioned because I did not agree Devotary, Vapor or Lahilt were more suspicious than Lord Sil and the other player on their pool was Pyro, on whom the train was at the point. Devotary told they do not believe Pyro is evil. I told the reason people were voting on him was NAI. And I reiterated that he could be elim, but not for the reasons he was being voted upon, and hence I did not want to get involved. You say the reasons for my voting was odd, yet you state Silber had made suspicious and incriminating statements. Isn't it natural for me to feel suspicion towards them? If I was an elim, I really wouldn't encourage my team to choose xino as the elim kill, would I? That would obviously incriminate me since I've voted for both of them. Finally, I really wouldn't suggest starting a train on Lord Sil to Straw if I was an elim since I would know that Lord Sil would flip village and that would put suspicion on me. I wouldn't think any elim would start lynch trains since that would be too suspicious. They also wouldn't bandwagon onto the end since that would be looked closely as well. I'd look at the players who gave train an impetus, just the extra momentum to build up so as to say. Edit: Was ninja'd by Gears. I didn't vote for Silber because they didn't vote for xino. I voted for them because they did not provide an explanation as to why they voted for Fifth above xino.
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Well, yeah you were right to be paranoid about Pyro. I'm upset, Mage. I got pocketed in my very first (complete) game despite me convincing myself that I've taken all measures to prevent the very thing. Right now, if we win I don't feel like we deserve it. Feel like this trusting Pyro thing is my fault, since I told him I had role-claimed to you, and you were roped in as well. Sine Lahilt did not counter-claim (and Mist is Thug, Ash claimed Pulser and Karnage is inactive), I'd be willing to explain all the Coinshot actions till now: N1: I did not target anyone because I was being cautious. I did not have a strong enough read on anyone and felt more should be discussed before attmepting to kill someone. N2: I targeted Araris Valerian since I felt something was off about them. I genuinely thought they were elim but they ended up as kandra, so that was lucky. (Or not so lucky in Araris' own words "Why do we need to differentiate between rooting out the kandra and elims? Both are bound to give dishonest reads." Something along those lines) N3: I targeted Matrim. Yeah, this was a bad call. I panicked after seeing all his votes disappearing and him lying low going under the radar that I thought he was an Elim Connector (I've been paranoid about elim Connector the whole game). I knew he could also be village Sparker but I decided to take a risk, and it failed. I still feel bad about it. Sorry Matrim! N4: I targeted Kynedath. I found the sudden change of Araris' vote from Experience to Kynedath very intriguing. He even started to ask others to vote for him. It's like he knew Kynedath was elim, despite limited interaction from Kyne. Hence my "kandra has alignment scanner" theory. Add to that Magestar's suspicion about xino's interaction with him. (Mage, if you remember I agreed with you) Kandra must have had the same thoughts as well (if kandra = Ashbringer) and double-tapped him. N5: I targeted Kidpen on the suggestion of Magestar to prove my role-claim. And he was one of the players in my suspicion list. N6: I targeted Mist because I knew she targeted Magestar during the turn he got role-blocked to prevent his Augury from telling who attacked him. Edit: Hey! @Karnage is viewing the thread. Karnage, it'd be absolutely amazing if you just hopped in and bandwagoned with us!
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I'd be equally inclined to lynch Ashbringer as well. That way we don't have to worry about him helping out the elim especially with his spike ability.
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Noooo Mage, we had a good thing going. You were right though, to be paranoid. I could say I saw it coming but I'd be lying out of my teeth if I said that. I did notice something was off though - like him asking me to buy the bead and pass it on to him or him asking me to buy the vest and pass it on to him but I brushed it off, and I'm an idiot for that. Pyro, you storming Sadeas. I have another level of respect for you after this game. Very well played. Elims really deserve to win here, if only because of your effort. You're very unlucky that in your appeal to be a villager, you also convinced the kandra that you are the villager, and they took you out trying to balance. You actually ended up helping us xD This betrayal will definitely help me improve as a player. You're never keeping group PMs again when you GM, right? 24 Hour Day Turn? I don't mind, I'm just asking for confirmation. @Magestar, I've tried to be completely honest with you in PMs. If you find any discrepancy, please feel free to ask me. You were the one who initiated a PM with me, and I've been truthful to the best of my knowledge. It is paramount that we understand the importance of each others' survival. We do not have to trust each other, just understand that in case we both are villagers, we need to survive till the end. To further reiterate my point, I'm willing to claim I'm the Coinshot. Almost everyone knows at this point. You, Ash, the remaining teammate of Pyro. The only person who doesn't know is a villager and it only hurts if village does not know I'm the Coinshot. If there is a counter-claim, only then will I state my targets and I have enough proof to discredit the counter-claimer. Hope this is a step in the right direction. @Ashbringer, it's highly likely that you're the kandra, so I ask the villager not to trust Ash. If you're not, I ask you to use your spike ability on me to clear you, but I don't think you'll do that. Mage, we need to be unified in our votes, if not (kandra+elim) could lynch one of us. Villager, please please do not vote for one of us as (kandra+elim) could easily jump on us and we'd get lynched. For now, Mist. Could you possibly give out any information that would help us prove you're village? (Ash, the reason I'm asking you to spike me is because, in case Mist flips village, I'd have to go for Lahilt in the night, I'm scared they have some sort of protection. So I'd like to double-tap them.) I'm extremely angry at myself and it's frustrating, but it is what it is.
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Thanks Matrim. As I said, I was largely focused on the LG, and I'm not good at C1 analysis. So I chip in whenever I feel like I need to say something, and remain quiet otherwise. You can see in LG66 that I was largely quiet in D1 as well. Now that we have something I can escalate to full blown analysis.
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Added? No. I agree Mint and Eternum were largely helpful, and Gears seems village as well. As I said before I don't want to lynch new or returning players in C1. Removed (if you're talking about just this cycle), then Devotary and Lahilt. Rollover time is really weird for me and I've lost a considerable amount of my sleeping time, so I'm off for the cycle. I don't find myself good in Cycle 1 analysis, and well the LG drained a large amount of my time. I'll try to be more helpful in the coming cycles if I survive.
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That's annoying. I was actually wondering why you had role-claimed. Makes more sense to claim after you caught you attacker ______________________________________ He had chosen wrong. Again. Harmony, why? Just for once, tell me what's right! He looked down at the body of the young girl he'd just helped to kill. With tears in his eyes, he lifted her body. Before, he'd just dispose the others had killed. Of course he felt bad for the innocents, but that was nothing compared to the guilt that washed over him while carrying the body he had helped to kill. The others just left like it was no big deal. "Let's leave it to the hazekiller. He's tasked with disposing the bodies. I mean, he's a hazekiller. He's supposed to hate allomancers anyway." They couldn't understand. He'd always be different, an outsider, no matter how much they trusted him. He looked over at his other suspects. How many more, Harmony? How many innocent lives do I have to kill in order to protect the innocent. There they were. The foreign scientist he had seen interact with a weird bunch of folks. He remembered their alliance and smiled sadly. Reading and Lord Cauthon were dead, their hopeful alliance broken. Was this scientist a reason for that? He shook his head and moved on. He didn't have to make the choice yet. There was still time. He wandered until he found Lumen, the lady he had found secretly gulping vials of Pewter. He had revealed her role to all, and now everyone seemed wary of her. He hoped she was one of the good people as well. And he didn't know. When the time came, he has make a decision again. He'd probably be a part of killing an innocent again. Eventually, he'd mourn their deaths again.
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Your thoughts are perfectly reasonable. But to be honest, that's their play style. They vote and retract votes from seemingly nowhere. They are very confusing to read at times, and thrive in chaotic situations. It's not your fault you find it elim-y. It would generally be elim-y. But that's just the way they play. They can still definitely be an eliminator, but their actions this cycle is NAI for them. Well, can't fault you for scaring them away, I suppose xD And I agree. That's why I didn't join the train. I already have a vote on Lord Sil. As said, if they believed a Xino-Fifth team, why did they vote for Fifth? I think I'd be fine with xino as well. Devotary, I'd like to see more from them. Not a C1 lynch. (Also I feel bad about lynching players early who also got killed very early in the previous game. When does all the ruthlessness come in? ) Would like to see more of Lahilt as well. Pyro is leading the lynch and I'm not adding to the train. I don't really mind lynching him, but I've got a hunch he'll flip village. I'm comfortable with my vote on Lord Sil. They have two votes on them and it looks like a potential alternative. Vapor, try to go through the thread once more if you can. Try to figure out anything fishy or something that doesn't seem right, then try to reason out why it doesn't seem right. It might be difficult since it's C1, but give it a try nonetheless. Look at Straw's analysis posts and how he makes reads and the reason he gives for his reads. That might help
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Thinking about it, Straw (kind of) scared away the voters Specifically, Pyro and Vapor, then retracted it himself. Devotary then retracted their vote stating they got enough information from the derailment of the train (what useful info, if I may ask @Devotary of Spontaneity?). All this could be NAI but I can see a very slight possibility of some combination of Fifth, Devotary and Straw being elims. Edit: Ninja'd by Straw
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Actually, going along other player's analysis is NAI for Pyro (from what I've seen so far). I'm not happy because the players are voting for him simply because he added to the train. Elim bandwagoning would be too easy to catch isn't it? Doubt an elim would try that in the first cycle when they can go under the radar by voting for someone with much less number of votes. I'd still look for a better alternative.
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I had missed this post. Sorry for not responding earlier. I think I wasn't very clear. I had no problems with your elim reads. It was the village reads that seemed like you just leaned village on players whose style you liked. I just went back and checked the post to realise I'm wrong. Most of the people you agree with fall under the "null" category. I don't know why I clubbed null and village together. Sorry about that.
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Um Mint, you had retracted your vote on Gears. I have changed my vote as well. Here, let me update it: Pyromancer (4) - Eternum, Matrim, Gears, Vapor Straw (2) - Fifth Scholar, Mystic Lotus Lord Silberfarben (2) - The Truthwatcher, TJ Lahilt (1) - Xinoehp Eternum (1) - Striker Fifth Scholar (1) - Lord Silberfarben Vapor (1) - Straw Matrim's Dice (1) - Lahilt This should be right. [How do you (Shift + Enter) on phone? I do not like those gaps.] Edited to include Lahilt's vote.
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Well at the time I did not find anything odd about any other players. Mint was a bit aggressive, but they've since asserted they did not know Gears was a new player. Truthwatcher's behaviour was normal for a new player. Straw and Fifth's discussion was NAI though I did find Fifth's lack of reasoning on the reason they voted on Straw is a bit odd. Rest was just poke votes. Among them, xino changing their stance seemed odd. A bit different. Granted the reasoning is a bit weak, but it was better than anything I had at that point, and I did not know whether I would be coming back again. I'll admit I was a bit biased in my voting. I did not want to vote on new players or returning players, so xino seemed a fine choice (add to the different style of play) Fifth's bandwagon is really weird to be honest. Lord Silberfarben, you voted on Fifth because you thought of a xino-Fifth team up. Some have already pointed out that it's tinfoil so I won't repeated that. But could you explain why you chose Fifth over xino? Especially after just agreeing with everything they said?( I did miss this initially but I went back to check on why players voted for Fifth when I found this.) @Lord_Silberfarben EDIT: xinoehp
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Actually I do find your reasoning kinda weird. You've given village reads to people seem to agree with the playing style you like and elim reads on most of the players who favor random voting. Any reasons other than players' favored style to give them village reads? Your elims reads are mostly fine and I find their reasons valid as you've gone above just their playing style.
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They claimed they wanted to attempt stab-voting for once.
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Alright thanks. Vote Count: Fifth Scholar (2) - Lord Silberfarben, Devotary of Spontaneity Lahilt (1) - Xinoeph Gears (1) - Frozen Mint Eternum (1) - StrikerEZ TJ (1) - Gears Straw (1) - Fifth Scholar Vapor (1) - Eternum Xinoehp (1) - TJ @Ashbringer, @Vapor, @MysticLotus, @The Young Pyromancer, @Experience, @Ventyl, @Lahilt, @Sparkrunner - Might wanna chip in guys, time's running.
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So I read through the thread again, and at the moment, I don't see anything off. Xino's changed tactic is the only thing that stands out. It's not suspicious, but it's different. So I'd be willing to drop a vote on Xinoehp for now. @Orlok Tsubodai, is it 3 inactive cycles for the whole game or 3 successive cycles of inactivity? Is the player considered inactive if they vote, then retract their vote without voting for a replacement?
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Well, I'll say what no one is saying. We're slowly inching towards dangerous territory.
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Kinda agree with Straw here. I feel like nothing of great importance will be revealed if the elims happened to get poked. It's easy for them to distance themselves from a fellow teammate very early in the game and there's no real danger in them voting for a team mate. Having said that, it does provide a basis for some reasoning to begin, so I do not mind others doing it. It's just that I won't be involved in it. Coming to the topic of random stabbing, well that's just down to probability. As Fifth said, random vote is better than no vote, but I'd still like a reasoned vote over a random vote. I know it's difficult in D1, but I'd still like to try my best. Until then, I'd like to hold on to my vote.
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Rusting idiot is what I am. How in the Ruin did I get tangled up in this mess? TJ pondered as he looked around him. He was one among the trusted four. For some reason, these people trusted him. A rusting hazekiller no less. He was just fine sulking in a corner and sneaking off by himself to root out the Loyalists. But no, they had to go on and involve him. He should have refused. Even now he felt like getting away from them, but deep down, he knew. You see, trust is a funny thing. He knew not to believe anyone, but he also knew he needed to trust them. So he did. He told them all about the information he had gathered as the result of observing others talk and more importantly, by exploring the corridors adjacent to the warehouse. He looked to his left, at Reginald was talking about the Loyalist who attacked him, and was revealing his clever ploy to determine his attacker. Smart. It's a good thing I decided to trust this man. He's probably the most trustworthy of the lot. He looked towards the young girl trying to listen to the conversation. Pyria. She was very close to Lorena and her death had really impacted Pyria. But she didn't let it show. She was equally helpful to catch the Loyalists. She could go to places no adult could and eavesdropped on important conversations and revealed them all to us. Good girl. I hope she escapes this unscathed. He then wandered his gaze at Lord Faleast who did a good job of holding everyone together. They were good people. He'd try his best to make sure they'd survive this. Not long now. It's almost over. With a heavy heart, he walked towards the people he suspected. He knew there were innocents among them. He just wished Harmony gave him the knowledge to choose correctly.
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This is actually one fact that is bugging me though. @Ashbringer, I believe you offered Xino, Emi, and Lahilt as potential role-block targets for Ventyl right? Makes me wonder why he chose Emi out of those three. If he avoided choosing Xino because he was an elim, could he also have avoided choosing Lahilt for the same reason? I'd be willing to change my vote to Lahilt if anyone else supports the lynch.
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Thanks Mist! Elim analysis: Similar to the previous post, we start with 7 players excluding me. Magestar can be removed from the suspect list for the same reason as above. Pyro voted for Hatz while trying to save Coda. He also tried hard to prevent the Drake lynch. Ashbringer was instrumental in lynching Ventyl. Out of Mist, Karnage, Emi and Lahilt, I’d remove Karnage from the list because he voted for Hatz in self-preservation (although he was late). Ventyl voted on him for the same reason. He in turn voted for Ventyl. Kidpen also voted for Karnage stating “bad vibes”. For all these reasons, Karnage does not seem like an elim at all. That leaves Mist, Emi and Lahilt. I’d clear Mist as well because of her vote of Hatz and Kynedath in D1 and D2. So now there’s only Emi and Lahilt. Case 1: 2 Elims remaining If there are two elims that means Emi and Lahilt are the last remaining members of the team (with an outside chance of elim!Mist. If that’s the reason, one of Lahilt or Emi is an elim and the other is a village. I don’t really believe this is true). If Emi flips elim, the remaining person on the kandra list is Karnage. So that would make him the kandra. Case 2: 1 Elim remaining One of Emi or Lahilt is the elim. So if Emi flips village, we can just lynch Lahilt the next cycle or hope the Coinshot gets him. Emi might even flip kandra, and still we can lynch Lahilt without bothering with Karnage. @Emi for all the above reasons, I believe you are the best lynch target right now (well, it’s a toss-up between you and Lahilt but he seems to have done more villager-y stuff). Do you have anything that would make us believe you are a villager? Any actions you took that helped a villager?
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Well, basically it's a combination of your actions, other elims' behaviour with you and a process of elimination. It's basically clearing people and looking at what remains. I'll try to explain below. Kandra analysis: There are 7 players remaining excluding me. Magestar is basically cleared because of his actions in the previous cycle. He obviously can still use his abilities so he can't be the kandra. I personally know for a fact that Pyro used his abilities after Araris was killed. Ashbringer has also Pulsed after the initial kandra death. That leaves Emi, Mist, Karnage and Lahilt. I learned that Mist is a Thug just recently. She'd have lost the passive abilities if she had turned into a kandra. I also know Lahilt has used his abilities as well. That leaves us with just Emi and Karnage. I'm personally leaning towards Karnage as the kandra since he was inactive during N4, the night the supposed kandra kill was missing. I don't want to lynch the kandra since it will be a waste of a lynch and we're in a strong position to win despite letting kandra live. Why is it important to narrow down the kandra suspects, you ask? Well read on. PS: Splitting my post becausing boxings. Someone please post.
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Don't think anyone has been active enough to get Lerasium. Steelrunner and Soulbearer are only dangerous with powerful allomantic materials, and I doubt they have them by default because that would be extremely over-powered. Also, why are you giving them ideas? Don't know why you think Skimmer is innocuous. The role would perfectly match with Thug. If she's an elim it would be extremely hard and time-consuming to kill her, not to mention luck should be in our favor as well. If she has a Vest as well, she'd be virtually immortal. An elim Oracle with a Vest would be dangerous as well as they can identify the Coinshot if the Coinshot decides to target them. Yup, it's day turn. You can. Agree with this. There's a very slight chance of Karnage being an elim since Ventyl was all but ready to kill him. I do not think it was a distancing tactic or an attempt to bus. This clears Karnage as elim but he remains my no. 1 candidate for kandra. He was inactive during N4 as well, as that could explain the lack of 3 kills in that cycle. But we do not have to worry about the kandra, especially if they are inactive as we can win over them. Lahilt's retraction and then insistence to lynch Ventyl looks more like a bus. But I'm hesitant to lynch them because I somewhat agree with them when they say elims are less like to bus with the presence of kandra and Kynedath's death. Emi's insistence to vote for Karnage makes them suspicious. Still a little confused about the Ventyl-Emi role-block thing, but I feel Emi is the best among the rest.
