|TJ|
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So worst case scenario, it's 5-1-2. Going by the same assumption as last cycle, that leaves Emi, Lahilt, Mist, and Karnage. This lynch gave us enough information to soft-clear Mist. She broke the tie to vote for Hats in D1. Don't really think there's a necessity to bus a teammate in the very first cycle. She voted for Kynedath in D2. Vote for 2 teammates in the first 2 cycles of the game? Very dangerous elim play. So I'd like to soft clear them for now. That leaves Emi, Lahilt and Karnage as the possible elims and kandra.
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Et tu Brute?? (Sorry, couldn't resist )
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Found this Ventyl's post. Scroll to see Matrim's response and Ventyl's reply to his response. Feels like he's a bit worried about an inactive teammate and wants to request a replacement, doesn't it? Kinda makes me suspicious of Emi. Also, I don't think a thief is alive at this point. Can anyone claim to have been robbed?
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Hey, Emi. This is the Night cycle where we cannot vote. And Ventyl did vote for Karnage during Day 3. I agree that TGK is a good target for whoever bought the uncharged spike. Hopefully the Coinshot will see this and go for someone else and prevent a double-tap. I'm gonna going to believe Ash, Pyro and Mage are villagers till the point where I have to stop believing. If I don't believe them now, yeah well I can't trust anyone else. That means 3 possible elims and a kandra from the pool of TGK, Kidpen, Emi, Karnage, Lahilt and Mist. If we soft-clear Emi and Karnage for elims, we're left with TGK, Kidpen, Lahilt and Mist. 3 out of the 4 are possible elims. For kandra (let's just say I have sufficient evidence to believe they were active enough to send out kill action during N4), we can removed Mist (because they would lose Thug ability) and TGK (inactive). Karnage was inactive during N4 as well. That leaves us with Kidpen, Emi and Lahilt (with an outside chance of Karnage being inactive in-thread while submitting a kill). We can work with this. I hope I don't get killed for this analysis. I really hope I'm right because if one of my trusted 3 turns out to be elim/kandra, all this is useless. Edit: Did not realise Mage and Emi posted while I typed this
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@Mist, sorry about that. I actually thought hard whether to reveal your role or not, but in the end I decided I would. However, it kinda ended up helping you though. If you are an elim, we would hesitate to kill you since it would take 2 cycles. If you are a villager, elims would not attempt to kill you at all since they just need to outnumber us and they'd obviously rather kill 2 different villagers rather than just 1 village Thug over 2 cycles. So that was a bust. Honestly, even my suspicion of Walin was grasping at straws. I have nothing except maybe go for The God King, since they have been inactive but the elims went for players more active than TGK like Devotary, Elkanah/Matrim, and Shard of Reading. That's all I've got. We may not get a single shred of information from their lynch but we've got to finish all the elims to win. It's getting really tough to deduce We've also got another headache coming our way. An uncharged spike was bought the previous night. So we may have 3 kills tonight, and it still wouldn't be an absolute indication of Ash Pulsing Coinshot/Kandra/elim. Only 4 kills would make that sure. It wouldn't matter for long though, because even if we assume that the uncharged spike was bought by a villager, if the spike kill and the Coinshot kill goes wrong, we'd be at parity come D6. Edit: Gah, ninja'd by Ash.
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Hey, I'm the last person to blame a (possible) villager for being super suspicious. In my eyes, you can never be too suspicious. I'm glad you're willing to rethink when given a suitable explanation. And it's my job to provide one so the discussion doesn't stray towards a mislynch and give the elims a reason to derail the thread. Found something interesting.
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So both of you are right in this. Ash, Pyro is right in saying if you did target the elim who submitted the kill, you are likely to be killed tonight and the information dies with you. Don't know why the elims would kill you if you already revealed the truth. Also, you don't have to worry about the kandra till N6. Pyro, Ash is right to be wary of revealing a possible villager and casting our suspicion on them. Ash also has only your word to believe that Coinshot's kill went through, but since revealing that information is dangerous to you too, I'm leaning towards believing you. People seem to forget there are only 11 players remaining, so there's a 7/11 chance Ash targeted a villager. I don't know why elim!Ash would target a fellow elim. That would not help the elims at all. So if Ash is indeed an elim, he would have targeted a villager or the kandra. If he did, then I see no reason why he shouldn't reveal it to the thread since it will not endanger any fellow elim. When the revealed player would flip village (or kandra) he'd have the perfect excuse by telling he was pressurized by other players in the thread. So I'm not exactly seeing elim!Ash, though the only reason why elim!Ash would not reveal his target is if his target was too villager-y to make us ask why he'd target them OR he is the Kandra and does not have his Pulser ability anymore and he's bluffing. So the only thing I can think of is maybe we could agree we wouldn't lynch the player Ash revealed till D6. Well Ash, it's your call but revealing it in-thread would be more safe than revealing via PM. I don't get why we're focusing on this particular scenario though. There are 8 other situations I discussed, and granted not all of them are equally probable, there are other cases like players with Steel Trap and double-tapping that could have been possible. I also find the kill on Elandera weird. Till now, the elims were content with killing inactive and semi-active players. That changed this cycle. I'll go back and check her posts to see if it was something she said.
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They could have. They'd still have only 4 charges though. Yeah, they can only store during the day. It's in the rules doc. Yes, but I'm not assuming they are elim just because they are Connector. There are other reasons I stated above like role-claiming, offering to clear Ventyl etc. Huh, what? I just revealed their role. Why would I do that if I was an elim? I'd be happy for the villagers to waste a cycle lynching a player with double-life if I was an elim. I wasn't discouraging you from killing Mist. I was merely asking if we should go for an immediate kill or are we in a comfortable situation to follow a hunch on a player with double-life. I'm wary because of Elandera's statement from earlier when she said she had been lynched just because she was a Thug when she was a villager. There's also a chance that there is a Thug of each alignment and I'm just worried we might end up wasting 2 cycles to end up killing the villager. I also voted for Mist alongside you last cycle. If I was an elim, then I would've known her role then and would have discouraged you from voting last cycle itself. I'm only telling now because I did not know till recently. As for how I know, would it be too much to ask you to trust me? (yes I know it would be too much )
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Underline mine. It says to change 2 votes it requires another 2 charges i.e. totally 3 charges. Changing a third vote requires yet another 3 charges i.e. 6 charges. You can charge only during the day. They would have around 3 charges (as they were inactive in D1), just enough to change 2 votes. It's not so much as an assumption rather than a conclusion drawn by the process of elimination. There is no one more likely to be Connector than Walin. Everyone else has had their vote counted in majority of the cycles. Fair warning. I have it on good authority that Mist is not someone you can kill in a single cycle. I'm like 90% sure that Ash did not Pulse the kandra now. I have very good reasons to believe so, but I think we should wait till N5 to see if there are 3 kills.
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Yeah, I just realised we don't have to worry about Kandra. Their next kill comes in N6. We could try to win by then (if the Kandra doesn't have some secret ability). I'll do a short analysis on the players left and end with my biggest suspicion for the cycle. I'll ignore the Kandra suspicion for now, and just keep it simple - village or elim. Karnage: Ventyl voted for Karnage out of self preservation when the voting was 3-3. Karnage voted for Ventyl the same cycle. Opportunistic voting Semi-active with very little analysis Verdict: Slight village Pyro: Attempted to save Coda and Drake. Not much to go on after that. Verdict: Slight village Lahilt: Retracted vote from Experience at a critical point on the instructions of Ventyl. I do not know why you would want to trust Ventyl to listen to him. Since my vote on him due to his retraction, he's been strongly opposed Ventyl voting for him in D3 and D4. Bus? Verdict: Neutral leaning very slighty towards elim Kidpen: In their words, they give off a weird vibe Verdict: No read Mist: Voting very close to rollover for the first time Broke ties for Hatz and Experience Voted for Kynedath Their actions by themselves do not seem elim-y, but Ventyl's interactions with them, especially the poke vote and the retraction saying they did not mean to vote for them does not sit well. Verdict: Neutral leaning elim Emi: Not much to read on. Did not back Ventyl's role-block claim. Verdict: Slight village Ashbringer: Strongly opposed Ventyl right from the beginning. Even with the role-claim, he was wary of Ventyl Whispery Whisper Inc. main goal was to out Ashbringer as elim as claimed by Matrim who flipped village. If it is an elaborate bus scheme (which I honestly don't see), only then would they be suspicious. Verdict: Village TGK: Inactive Magestar: As stated in previous post, pushed hard for Kynedath lynch, even going as far as to recommend the Coinshot to take them. Bussing an inactive teammate to win trust? I won't assume so for now. Verdict: Slight village Walin: Active every cycle except the first, but are yet to involve in a single lynch vote. If there is a Connector in the game, Walin would be the best possible candidate as suggested by their lack of votes. As you all can deduce, an elim Connector would be very very dangerous. Role-claim could be done to earn the trust of the villagers. Volunteered to help prove Ventyl's role. Kynedath's death was not good because they would give us reads and info. Well, they can only give us reads to analyse only if we're sure they are elim and that is possible only when they are dead. Again, not much to read on since Kynedath is not active since D1. If we are lynching them, it should be unanimous because if they are Connector, they probably have enough charges to change 2 votes.
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Two kills this cycle, so many possibilities: Inactive kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Main suspect - The God King. Semi-active/cautious kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Probable, but not highly likely. Main suspects - Walin, Kidpen, Karnage, Emi Roleblocked kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Cannot speculate the suspects but players with roleblock abilities and Steel Traps, be wary. Your targets could be kandra. Semi-active Coinshot, kills from kandra and Eliminator: Will not speculate anything pertaining to the Coinshot for obvious reasons. Roleblocked Coinshot, kills from kandra and Eliminator: Same as 3. Players with roleblock ability and Steel Traps, your targets could have been the kandra or Coinshot. Coinshot-Kandra double-tap, kill from Eliminator: In this case, the Eliminator would have obviously targeted Elandera, meaning Coinshot and Kandra double-tapped Kynedath. This is fairly possible since Magestar has been advocating for a Kynedath kill for a long time, and it's reasonable to assume the Kandra and Coinshot took his advice (or he's the Kandra and took his own advice since it's the first time he got the opportunity to kill since becoming a Kandra ) Eliminator-Kandra double-tap, kill from Coinshot: Possible, but I cannot fathom why the Kandra would want to kill Elandera. Coinshot-Eliminator double-tap, kill from Kandra: Again, I cannot think of a reason the Coinshot would want to kill Elandera. Roleblocked Eliminator, kills from Coinshot and Kandra: Well, whoever roleblocked the exact elim who would submit the kill is very very lucky indeed. It's a 1/13 chance, but they could reduced it by not opting to block inactives/semi-inactives. So even by just removing Walin, Kidpen, and TGK, they have a 1/10 chance of hitting the elim submitting the kill. Not improbable. Just thought of another thing. @StrikerEZ, the Kandra does not lose its kill ability after it changed bodies right? It still can kill,yes? To deduce which of the following options is most likely, I need to know who has role-block abilities and Steel Traps. So far, 2 Trap have been bought. One by Ventyl and one by a player known to Pyro. Ventyl died and the Trap went to one of Lahilt, Pyro, Elandera or Ashbringer. If it went to Elandera, it is now mostly with an Eliminator and we have no way to know whom she targeted last night. If it went to either Pyro, Lahilt or Ashbringer, and if they did use their Steel Trap, their targets are suspects. Ashbringer is the only confirmed (if claim is to be believed) player with role-block ability. Did you target someone using your Pulser ability? If you did, please tell, but do not reveal the player you targeted. If there are 3 kills in N5, then your target is a suspect. Unless you targeted the kandra and its kill action gets delayed till N6. I'm not quite sure if it works that way ( @StrikerEZ, if Ash used his Pulser ability on Kandra, will the Kandra's kill action take place in N5 or N6?) You could also be the kandra, but we'll cross that bridge when we need. I'm also not sure if the Kandra could use allomancy via charged or uncharged spike ( @StrikerEZ, can you confirm? ). Highly doubt if we have another role-block player with 3 dead Leechers. Maybe there's a small possiblity of an elim Pulser, but I personally don't think so. Magestar is soft-cleared for elim due to his suspicion and push on Kynedath's vote. I need to go back and check if his suspicion on Kynedath arose before or after Araris died. If it was after, he's a likely candidate for Kandra. Not sure I agree with this. Kynedath was only active during D1 and has not posted at all since then. Not sure how we can get reads to analyse from them.
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Both Karnage and Ventyl were on 3 votes. That's when Ventyl voted for Karnage in self-preservation to make Karnage's tally 4. Then Pyro retracted his vote on Karnage to make it 3-3. Lahilt voted for Ventyl, but Ashbringer changed from Ventyl to Experience so it remained 3-3. That's when votes began piling up on Experience. Yeah, you're definitely the kandra That's why you keep forgetting to look for kandra suspects xD
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We really needed that. According to Elandera it should be 9-1-3, so that should give us a little breathing space. ( I still think they would have one extra elim to compensate for kandra kills, but I really cannot determine the balance of the game after playing only two games) . Ahhh, now I feel bad for being a tad aggressive. Sorry about that. I would still like you to ask the questions I've asked during the last cycle (pertaining to your voting choices and your reasoning behind them), but you can answer them in the Day cycle if you wish (or you can not answer them at all and my suspicion on you will grow ). I can understand juggling two games, but that would be a convenient excuse. So yeah, analysis on a few players would help us figure you out. Still don't know why you voted for me in the last moment as it was basically a waste of your vote. You could have voted for Ventyl to secure Let me look into the D3 lynch where Experience was voted out and Ventyl was up for a lynch alongside them. Ventyl voted for Karnage as self-preservation, so maybe we can soft-clear Karnage. Karnage's voting seems opportunistic but they could easily be a Pinnacle. Karnage voted for Ventyl during that cycle as well. Ventyl was tied at 3 votes along with Karnage when Experience did not have a single vote on them. Magestar was the one who started voting for them. Hmm. Ashbringer follows by changing their vote from Ventyl to Experience.Then follows Elandera, and finally Mist that breaks the tie. Magestar states he wanted to explore more options as he did not agree with Karnage or Ventyl lynch. Elandera is a bit more confusing. She was focused on Experience during D1 and D2. Then Experience called her out, and she admitted to tunneling, and voted for Karnage. Then agreed with Magestar and shifted the vote back to Experience. Mist did not understand the Experience lynch but ended up voting for them? Out of all the players voting for Experience here, I'm most suspicious of Mist,and as I said, I'd like to hear her reasoning behind all her votes. I'd also like to point out that Ventyl first poke-voted Mist in D1, then backed off by saying they did not mean to start a lynch train on Mist. I've given my thoughts on Karnage above. I'd like to know what you think about it. I'd like to point out that I was the first one to notice Ventyl would be the third Leecher in the village if we were to believe him, and that was, in fact one of the reasons you voted for him in this cycle, I believe. The main reason I felt something off about Ventyl lynch was it felt oddly similar to the previous cycle i.e. no one showing any opposition to the lynch. So I was a bit apprehensive. I was definitely suspicious of Ventyl, but just a bit more put off my Mist's active silence. I had told I'd change my vote back to Ventyl if Mist gave a proper explanation but that didn't happen so I didn't feel compelled to change my vote. There's no reason Ventyl and Mist cannot be elims together. Edit: @Ashbringer could very well be a kandra for all we know. Ash, could you provide some proof of actions you took after Araris died? Edit 2: Black Market Update: 2 Bulletproof Vests and 1 Charged Spike was bought during the last cycle.
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Experience was leading the lynch at this point and they were a lot more more active than Drake. This seems like a purely retaliatory vote. Are you seriously telling that out of everyone remaining that I'm the most suspicious because I said I was village? Where is your defence as you are being accused?
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Hold up, something doesn't seem right. I just noticed Ventyl changed their vote from Experience to Drake during D2. That..doesn't really make sense if they were elim. Why would an elim make a village to village shift in the last moment? Doesn't seem elim-y. They are at least making an attempt to prove something, though it comes off as appeasing the villagers. I will wait for a defence them and Mist before deciding whether I should change my vote to Mist. Can't help but smell a mislynch this time too. Edit: Ninja'd by Ventyl. If Mist do not provide a defence, I'm seriously considering switching my vote to them. Edit 2 : Can you answer these questions @Ventyl? I thought I already told proving your role is not going to help us at all. Please do not waste your actions. @Ashbringer, why are you so eager to waste his actions and find out his role? Him proving he wasn't lying is role does not help us. Like, at all. Rusts, we're already making the assumption that if he is Leecher he must be elim since 3 village Leecher is not feasible. So if he proves us his role and he ends up as Leecher, then what? Lynch him then too? If he's lying, then what? It's a die-die situation for him. Really don't understand why you're pushing so hard for him to prove his role. Edit 3: Looks like I'll be going off and won't be back till around the rollover. If Mist doesn't post by then, I probably will not be moving my vote back to Ventyl.
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Gahh, why are we lynching kandra suspects? We really need their kill in N4. Can we not lynch kandra suspects till D5? Coming to the active 4, I'd say my most suspicious is Ashbringer. They could be playing us like a fiddle under the pretense of being a new player. I call this Sareneding, after Sarene from Elantris. It's the act of appearing less smart/intelligent OR more confused than you actually are to fool others. Again, as they are active and I really don't want the game to grow more quieter, I'd reserve lynching them for later. After Ashbringer, it would be Magestar. I don't agree with Ash that they could be hasty to kill a player who merely stated their suspicion on them without reasoning. If they were getting solid evidence, that would be another matter, but at that point it was pure conjecture from Araris. Also, the conversation between Araris and Magestar seemed a little banter-ish and opposing? I see this as a distancing tactic used by Araris to allay suspicion from Magestar as the future kandra. They remain a perfect candidate for kandra, but again it seems like an obvious choice, so I really don't know if Araris would have gone that way. For the aforementioned reason of requiring kandra kill, I do not want to lynch them for the fear of being kandra, at least till D5. There have been too many opposing accusations and votes between Ashbringer and Magestar for both of them to be elim, I believe. Pyro's chaotic play was extremely confusing and had me doubting him for a while, but his outrage on the lynches of Coda and Drake seem genuine. There's not much to read into, other than his attempts to save Coda and Drake. But attempts to save 2 villagers seems villager-y. I wouldn't be surprised if he did manage to pocket Drake and Coda though. Just that he's least likely to be an elim among the three of you. I've been suspicious about Mist for awhile. Her playing style has been extremely similar to the one in MR. She was shrewd and analytical in the elim doc, so I find no reason not to do that in-thread (not sure if I'm allowed to draw conclusions from other games, please correct me if it's wrong). @Mist, could you explain your reasoning behind the vote on Kynedath on D2, and the votes on Hatz and Experience on D1 and D3 respectively, which were last minute votes to break the tie? PS: @StrikerEZ, thoughts to give multiple boxings to posts with word counts in the multiple of 200? Sometimes it makes more sense to put all your thoughts in a single post rather than splitting it for the sake of boxings, but it makes it unfair for those who do that. Edit: Ninja'd by Elandera and Walin. Ventyl has been suspicious and making too much of an attempt to appease the villagers. @Ventyl if you did not use your actions on Walin, did you at least use it on someone you suspected? What of the Steel Trap? What did you do with it?
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Sign me up as Box! Also, I think @MysticLotus wanted to join. Here is the signup for the next game.
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Yeah, well I was at the rollover, but all the major voting changes happened while I was gone, right? I was just checking on the posts I missed while I was gone, and when I caught up it was past the rollover time. Yeah, I'd like to clear any suspicion anyone might have on me. I've really tried to analyse thoroughly and my suspicions are honest. I do not think I've been partial or gone easy on anyone. If the said people have given convincing reasons, I've moved them down my suspect list. If I haven't said anything about them, they haven't done anything suspicious in my eyes. I do have some suspects that I'd like to keep close to my chest to see how they react to stuff before they realize they are suspects.
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Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting
|TJ| replied to Jo and the Bush's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I'll admit I joined because I wanted to get the feel of the game and how it is played before the LG, but the game was so well played I was soon pulled in and forgot all about the LG (even after it started :P). Even though I lasted for a grand total of 2.5 cycles, I had a lot of fun interacting with you guys and thoroughly enjoyed the game. Thank you for making my first game a very memorable one @The Young Pyromancer, you absolute madman! I cannot believe this was your first game as an elim. You had us in your grips for two whole cycles and that was one of the contributing factors for the elim win. @Coda , @Mist and @Experience, great work throughout the game, and especially towards the end. You escaped suspicion very well and did so while attempting to seem helpful. Amazing write-up by Coda and Mist as well! Coming to the village side of things, @DeTess pretty much carried us throughout the game. You were like the word of reason and everyone would not hesitate to listen to you. Another day you'd have totally won us the game. @Matrim's_Dice, Winsting was a HUGE responsibility for your very first (I'm assuming?) game, and you handled it very well. You tried your very best to win us the game in the end, and you almost pulled it off. @Orlok Tsubodai, I owe a huge thanks to you. Your analysis made it very easy for me to get into the game and get reads on people easily. Even though you were dead, you were like a cognitive shadow in helping me out. @Bugsy, you were brilliant as Bleeder. Even though you couldn't perform your actions like you wanted to, you kept us guessing and confused. Finally, @A Joe in the Bush, thanks for subbing me in! It was great to be a part of your game, and I hope to be in another one soon. Thanks for running it! Edit: Ahh ninja'd. Thanks, DeTess! Edit 2: Heyy I forgot about @little wilson. Thanks for making the game so entertaining! -
Three if you count Shard of Reading. I think he was Leecher/Pinnacle. Ventyl suspicion just went up (I know we shouldn't make suspicion based on distribution but 3 leechers is too much for one side and add to that his suspicious behaviour) I was taking MR42 as basis for my [(33% of total players) - 1] rule, but I think that is the worst case scenario. Maybe there are 5-6 remaining by now. So it SHOULD be easy to find them, but it's not. If this doesn't change, this game won't last long. We can't afford a mislynch, and hope that the kandra and the coinshot (if they exist and are active) to hit elims in the night turn.
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This is bad. This is baaaad. We lost a powerful combination of Nicroburst/Sparker. According to my worst case scenario, we're one mislynch away from lylo. 2 kills this cycle. What do we think? Elim kill + village coinshot misfire, or Elim kill + elim dagger kill with an inactive coinshot?
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Throughout the game or this cycle? I believe I did mention suspicion on several people, but I'm a new player just like you, so getting reads on players is a bit difficult for me too. I was suspicious of you, Pyro and Drake. You guys managed to convince me that you're not an immediate threat. Still a little suspicious of you, but not enough to take to immediate lynching. I was suspecting Lahilt, or Ventyl. But Experience flipping village threw that away. I still believe Ventyl is slight elim. EDIT: I was also slightly suspicious of Araris in D2, if you recall. But we all know what happened there (or we don't )
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Whoa, that means they had close to 80 boxings?? We really lynched our best chance at getting the lerasium bead huh? EDIT: If Matrim indeed stored last turn (and it looks like he did), he's not the new Kandra.
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So.. players who voted for Experience, how does it feel to be rich?
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Yeah, sorry about that. As I stated in the reason for edit, I hit send accidentally. Yeah, I agree that Ventyl and Lahilt are soft-cleared for the moment. Unfortunately, that means I've run out of all elim suspects. Maybe Karnage would be my best bet at the moment, and maybe I'd like to follow up on Araris' suspicion on Kynedath. But other than that, I've got nothing.
