Mat

So… does that mean the Forsaken voted Vorros? Or could it mean they’re messing with us and there’s still no way to tell?

Even further, right before I posted the Trace results Conq told me that Wiz was his Warder. That to me read like Conq trying to convince me to stop voting Vorros. Conq didn’t phrase it like a defense, but there’s no other reason for him to claim. He stayed out of defending Vorros in thread yet PMd me with a claim separately. I think that further implies e/e. Conq being Vorros’ fake claim means that the elims decided an IKYK was the best choice of action here, which is… rude I think there’s enough linking evidence between the two to exe Conq next anyway but we’ll see what happens I guess. I we have a real Blacksmith they’re welcome to give it a shot. Just probably make a PM with Shining (or me) so that results can make it to the thread without you being outed. Also, I’d like some protection as well, for just save Shining

I think that’s an attempt to draw out the scanner Dont counterclaim, I think If you’re really that, why have there been no indication or soft of a power role so far? Like that just reminds me of when I just claimed random things and claimed I lied for the greater good and stuff while I was evil. After everything that’s happened it’s hard for me to take that as legit Claiming a check is incredibly easy when you’re an elim, and it doesn’t even have to be real. The most logical thing is still that you’re evil since there’s no good reason for Shining to pull a gambit.

I already answered that. Twice, I think. At least the second question. afaik Shining just traced a bunch of people and yours worked, but you’ll have to clarify that with him. Shining told me far before I heard about the RBs, but there isn’t really a way to confirm that. The first suspicion I started to place on you came in my Conq post, which came before the RB news, and that was after I knew you were evil. But again, what’s the point of faking this trace? Getting two elims killed for one villager? That is not a good trade. ‘More proof that it’s fake’ is an interesting way of phrasing it when there isn’t really any proof of that at all, quite the opposite if anything.

Exactly :P. I mean, don’t get me wrong, you definitely played well. Like I said, I’d probably still be v reading you without the Trace.

Can confirm, btw

It’s their choice, I’m still unwilling to. I don’t want this to be the reason they die :P. I know there’s a lot of heals but there’s no guarantee on those. Idk maybe I’m overthinking this If they choose to claim, that’s totally fine but I want it to be their choice

I think Luck is definitely not teamed with you, fwiw, but Vorros was playbook e/e with you last turn. Dude, I don’t need a ploy There’s no reason for me to put myself in danger that way. I made a case, I don’t remember the timing exactly but that was before the xino train (if you can call it that) took off at all. And besides, I don’t think pre-my reveal the elims are real concerned about a VC with a bunch of low tied votes. Certainly not enough for me to do this.

Look, until this exact moment I thought that Trace for sure tracked weaves but now I’m unsure. Which is awkward But I… don’t think my contact is lying. They’re not someone who I think would pull this gambit, or someone who I think would include the RB detail if they did. There’s not really a reason to, it’s a risky assumption that a RB happened at all. Also, pretty sure Trace doesn’t reveal target names. My contact would have mentioned it. Oh yeah Nvm then :P. But I do have a contact, so meh :P.

There’s actually no guarantee or record of that, but sure :P. I kinda thought weaves counted as physical actions but that might not be true. Either way you could just be an e!Blademaster who’s claiming ability to weave, I don’t know. I know what my PM contact told me. We didn’t see a reason to give away any more people than we needed to. They’re conf village if you’re elim but technically I’m not, so I’m a better spokesperson. If two people simultaneously started suspecting you at the same time it’d be pretty obvious. Because there’s no point in making myself a NK target if I don’t have to. Killing you via a legit case is far better than killing you via mech, just because the former doesn’t make me/my PM friend a target and the latter does. It’s funny you accuse this of looking desperate and shady cause there’s no reason for me to be either of those things right now. I might have had a single vote but I didn’t feel in danger of getting exed. There was nothing for me to be desperate about. Fair enough I suppose, but I think I can convince you otherwise if I have to. But I’m willing to take that risk. I am going to point out though that there’s no downside to e!me revealing my contact’s name here.

Nope, not gonna happen :P. I’m fairly confident this is real and I’m not about to set up another person to be NKd, already putting myself out there. I don’t see how revealing them now does anything to change a 50/50 between us in the case of a village flip, honestly, it only serves the elims.

Ah, you’d be surprised The risk taking aspect though is a turn off for me, you’re right about that. But plan wise sounds like a fun challenge tbh But yeah it’d be a dumb ploy to do a 1-1 trade at this stage in the game

I got off work early, so you guys get this post early! :D. It has come to my attention via a PM friend (promise, no funny Anon PMer business but an actual Anon PMer :P) that Vorros was Traced last night and submitted a kill and a roleblock. Hence my casing of him. Tbh without that result I likely would have happily kept v reading him :P. No one bit on it, so I’m just revealing this so we can get the exe. Was hoping to without revealing but eh

How do you feel about voting alongside Vorros? I’ll probably be gone for five hours ish, but I’ll post again around then.

You're good, I'm prone to be quite the self defender as well. The tone was fine, thanks for this anyway though! Putting responses in spoiler boxes for ease of reading and scrolling I appreciate the perspective (and the readslist) but I don't think I'll move my vote at this present moment. I mean, I don't disagree about the pattern but I don't see how that implies which player the pattern starts with. Since I first read the rules my natural assumption was that on D1 (or N1, I guess) the Warder decides whether to protect themselves on odd turns or their Aes Sedai on odd turns, with the other getting even turns, and then it was passive from thenceforth on. Maybe I'm wrong about that but that was how I read it, and I suppose it wouldn't be right of me to elim read someone for reading it differently I guess I thought it was obvious enough that it wasn't really possible to have been read differently.

Aforementioned Explanation Post- Of Why Vorros is an Eliminator. Probably. At Least, Here Are Some Reasons I Think So: Shhh I'm in a bolded title mood this game From Day One: The only read he really gives is Illwei, and he just pushes there the whole turn. This to me implies e/e with Conq but without either flip it's too early to say. I think the hyperfocus is elimmy anyway, where were his other reads? And I mean, that's kind of it from D1. He does a good job blending in but after reading his posts a few times I start to get the agenda of blending in behind them. Like, posting responses that just echo someone else or continuing to comment on Illwei. I can also tinfoil him knowing what the elim doc is all I want but that's probably not a good idea xD From Night One: Okay take a look at the last line in this post, is that not the fakest reaction of all reactions :P. I honestly don't know how I didn't comment on that before. But I digress. From Day Two: This to me, after Luck's post, reads like a fake reaction as well. I think this is the tunneliest read I have in this ISO, though. I've mentioned it before, but I totally buy that Vorros slipped when talking about Warder/Aes Sedai mechanics and he's Wiz's Aes Sedai (perhaps the Forsaken) who knew Wiz would be on him and so got an easy kill. I think he weighed the possibilities of himself being vigged (low, he was widely v read) and the possibility of a vig happening at all (also low, Lightning is hard to perform and has a small success rate) and decided the kill was worth it. To me, his explanations of why he said what he did fall flat and look like a cover-up. Like, the accusation was based off him saying "it was an odd night, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai" and Vorros' response didn't actually explain why he said definitively that Aes Sedais were protected on odd nights. There's no indication of such in the rules, nothing that could lead to that implication. And his 'explanation' doesn't cover that either. A light TL;DR to follow. Still, please read the above, it's not that long. But in conclusion, he hyperfocused on Illwei D1 and still hasn't posted a comprehensive reads list, had a couple of arguably fake reactions to flips, and I think he slipped to be Wiz's Aes Sedai and is trying to cover it up- but dodging the main point of the accusation. Additionally, he looks e/e with Conq (who we don't have a flip for, but the dynamic remains) and just based on wagonomics has a higher chance of being elim than most other players, imo. So there's my case, as usual @ me for questions/concerns/comments. Sorry for the double, but it's been awhile.

So you’re voting me because I stuck you in an obligatory third slot while looking at hypothetical worlds, yet still I say I read you village and have given no indication of wanting to vote you? Weird. I wouldn’t have CCd Wiz, I thought I made it clear I suspected him in my megapost yesterday for separate reasons. e!me had no reason to comment on that today at all. I want to read this as you trying to vote me out for being right but that would be arrogant but fwiw I do think that was a legitimate slip from Vorros, and I’m writing a case on him next. My vote will probably go there. It’d be tough to get me to move it at least. Actually yknow what let’s just do it now, Vorros. Explanation post coming soon(ish).

Oooh is this a slip? In which Vorros killed off his Warder since he knew he wouldn’t be protected?

I suppose it's possible, then. Though I don't see why the elims would kill off a protection every other cycle unless inactive Wiz was somehow on to them :P. Anyway- here is the promised post, looking at the both possible worlds of Conq and my conclusions of each. Conq Post: In the world of Conquestor- In this world, I believe the most likely elim team consists of Conquestor, Devotary, and Vorros. Devotary could be substituted with Sart without too much trouble. I think Araris is cleared, and I think Luck looks village. xino looks villagery as well. In the world of Conquestor- In this world, I think it's difficult to nail down a team but I think only one of [Sart, xino] is elim and that 1-2 Illwei voters are elim, likely out of [Vorros, Devo]. I think it's notable how both Vorros and Devo show up as candidates in both worlds but I don't really know what to do with that info. I think I could case Vorros pretty easily but that'll have to wait until later today.

Ha I definitely didn’t miss that they were a Warder :P. I don’t think that’s likely personally, there’d be a 50% chance of their own death, no? I guess Wiz could have been protecting the Forsaken?

Well, that's what is known as the 'low info kill' :P. It also was probably where I would have started voting today which is excellent >> Conq post starting now, once again will double post if no one else has before I'm done.

The song concluded, and the tendril dissipated, leaving behind a smear forming the words ‘Nothing to see here, carry on’

A tendril of corrupted chaotic-dark energy manifests and begins to sing a haunting song about lost love. Page 2022 is a fun milestone

I think it’s two with Amyrlin and three without if anything. I do think it’s funny that Vorros said Devo or Conq pointed out the math behind a Forsaken/Amyrlin duo since Devo and Conq being the Amyrlin and Forsaken elim team is surprisingly possible considering just Devo’s vote. Which isn’t a trustworthy point on its own but if that’s what it turns out to be I reserve the right to claim brownie points :P. I mean, it has a lot to do with his proddings and questions— maybe they deserve a second look but for me right now are good enough to earn him a spot in my ‘looks like he’s trying to solve’ tier. Like the kinds of things he’s posting are the kinds of things I’d expect a villager with a sharp mind to be posting. The fact that he didn’t vote Illwei doesn’t hurt either, I have to say :P. Edit: And yeah I won’t be getting to that Conq post before the turn ends lol I haven’t even started it

Double posting this if no one's posted by the time I'm done. (Megapost, not sorry ) Mat Replies to Conquestor: I don't think the first part of this can be used as an argument against me, or at least a valid one. Saying that it would be bad for the village if I were evil is a compliment to me (thanks! ) but not by itself anywhere near enough to actually vote me out, if you know what I mean, and I don't think that's what you're proposing at all. Just want to make it clear either way Me seeming to be a good judge of alignment is a bit haha recently, as I've had a string of bad games, but we'll see. As for the second part, yeah, sorry. I'm far busier than I have any right to be in these last weeks of summer, more so than I thought I would be. I guess I didn't feel like commenting on the Forsaken debate since mech isn't my forte and a lot of others did comment on it, and I'll weigh in here since that seems to be what a lot of the discussion this turn revolves around. This to me looks like you're getting ahead of yourself-- yes, if that's what the Forsaken did then I'm the Forsaken but there's no evidence towards it being true. You just decided it was the most likely option for some reason, when there's many other explanations. And like, I know that this isn't what happened, so :P. Basically everything you have against me is all hypothetical, and therefore not grounds for a push. (Which I realize you're not pushing me, but) Mat Finally Gets to the VC: I don't think options where it has to be Compulsion that changed the vote should be considered first, since the weave has a 40% success rate. There are other options to me that make more sense and don't require chance. Never mind, figured out that the Forsaken could have just used Compulsion. Nvm. ...Wait, does that mean that a Forsaken can just use Lightning every night? I guess only if they have the correct stats. Which they probably don't for balance reasons. Okay. One thing that I find interesting is that if the Forsaken voted Illwei and the Amyrlin moved a vote from Conq to Illwei, we'd get the result we see. This to me implies an e!Amyrlin, otherwise it's just a lucky elim team. I think we should keep an eye out for VCs that look similar to this one to try to find a pattern. I also think making cross-reference charts or just keeping track of the trains in another way could be useful- if a vote disappears off a train with (Me, Shining, Wiz) and (Wiz, Devo, Shining) and (Wiz, Devo, Vorros) then we can safely accuse Wiz of being the Forsaken. With caveats because like I doubt the elims will be that obvious, but you know what I mean. I think it's possible to piece some things together. However- I think it was Devotary who pointed out that there's no way to tell the difference between any of the options that could have happened, and I completely agree. We simply do not have enough information to come to any conclusions, which is why I suggested the cross-reference charts or something of the like. After D2's VC, we can reconvene and maybe try to spot a pattern. But for now, you could point a finger at virtually anyone and call them a Forsaken for this and this or that and that. Mat's Reads: xinoehp512- xino has one post, right? The one that I didn't like because of the ease of the vote he chose. I think he's normally more active, too, but so am I :P. Still a leaning elim read, albeit a less solid one now that I know Illwei's village and I'm undecided on Conq. I think e!Conq erases this read. Conqestor- As I mentioned, undecided. I think a lot of his effort has been genuine, but I put forth genuine effort as elim so I'll have to decide which effort this is. I think that e!Conq makes last cycle more interesting, and my next post will be a deep dive into both worlds (of Conq's alignment) to parse out who I think is elim for each, and maybe become more sure about Conq in the process. I double checked his reads list from last turn and his list from this turn and it checks out progression-wise, I think he has some strange takes but that's not suspicious by itself. I think if I voted here tomorrow it'd be for info. Null, leaning village. Araris Valerian- I see no reason to have changed this read, Mild village. The Wandering Wizard- Wiz accrued some suspicion then virtually dropped off the face of the earth, which I think is an elimish reaction even if I lean v on their earlier posts by themselves. I will say though I think him just posting VCs at the end of last cycle and not voting is weird, just posting VCs is a way to look like you're contributing and I'd have thought that someone so involved with the votes would vote themselves. I think if the Forsaken just didn't vote, it's Wiz. Slight elim. Devotary of Spontaneity- Her last second vote is only interesting if Conq is evil, and I don't know how to consider her in a world where the elims manipped away from e!Conq. I feel like it'd have been pointless to draw direct connections between a teammate when manip is happening anyway, but I think at the very least her pointing out that looking at the VC too close isn't helpful is villagery. Null, I need more time to read Devo, but leaning village. Vorros- I'm just copying Luckspren's read here, I think Vorros has been villagery but I'm paranoid. I like that he offered to supply games for a meta check, I'm also not super interested in actually doing that check but idk if an elim would have bothered to ask. Slight village. Shining Silhouette- I'm just copying Conq's read this time, but I agree that Shining's efforts have seemed villagery and that e!them in their first game probably wouldn't have done a full VC dive. Slight village. Sart- The fact that I'm reading Sart as different than usual worries me on its own since I always read Sart as evil and I'm really not, but I also think that I've played with e!Sart more than v!Sart. But I don't see a super huge problem with his opener or any of the subsequent posts he's made. Leaning village. Luckspren- Proving to be very competent, enough so that I can't clear them for doing a VC analysis or anything like that. I do read them village, but this slot legitimately makes me more nervous than any other and I'll be paying close attention to progression and votes from here on out. Good job Still a solid slight village though. One of my village reads is wrong, obviously. Unless it's Wiz/xino as a two elim team Forsaken/Amyrlin... That'd be interesting. But ofc I don't expect to solve the game N1 so whatever, I'll figure it out hopefully. Also- Shining is never elim with Sart, they ninja'd each other doing the same VC analysis. I don't think that was a planned scheme, like at all :P. Pretty Tier List TL;DR: Araris Shining, Luckspren, Vorros Sart Devo, Conquestor xino Wiz @ me for questions. The post looking at the worlds of e!Conq and v!Conq will either come right before rollover or tomorrow morning, knowing me it'll probably be the latter. If I'm alive, which I should be since I died early last game