Mat

@Kasimir— want me to move?

At the time I had him paired with Dannex, so the role wasn’t proveable at all. His claim came late in my progression anyway, late enough that my tunnel was deep enough that instead of backing out I burrowed further. Not sure what that means— I pause on TUN because of his Sailor claim. If true, we waste a turn. If false, he’s Melkor. And I don’t have a strong enough TUN read to lean that either direction. Will be mobile only and lower activity until the end of the turn.

I think out of Archer/Devo I prefer Devo, mostly because Archer is confirmably not Melkor and has extra vote power to swing it if the VC is close. The two of them are otherwise close enough. Devo’s got the half alibi but that doesn’t stand if she started with a Helm or Shield or is teamed with Dannex, which are both possible iirc. I don’t really see much point in staying on Dannex when that vote was more to stir the pot and wake up the thread than anything else, though if the exe was Dannex today I’d be fine with that.

Huh, thanks. I’d forgotten Archer was voting dannnex lol Ah Hopefully I learned my lesson after that, but yes. Well, can’t help you there I suppose :P. If I need to die that’s fine, it’s not lylo— I’d just hope that people look more at those who didn’t think about reads at all in the cycles afterwards. Obviously if my death is avoidable, ah, that’s ideal, though

Forgot this game— can you elaborate? I was thinking of that one where I thunderdomed against you and Aman at the same time So you’re instead better satisfied with voting a sorta v!read? Like— sure, I get why that’s annoying but for me, who I can’t think of a single alive player who actually has made an elim read of me (save for yours, which I explained), I’m left confused why I’m the leading train. Everyone seems fine following the mech info when there’s no guarantee of a lack of exceptions. Actually, I’m not even sure what the VC is, lol. I’ll have a few more pop ins but again probably won’t be on for rollover

It’s too quiet. Dannex As an experiment. Isn’t the normal thing that the elims are comfortable when the thread is quiet? I don’t like it.

Hmm. I'm not sure how likely I find a Sailor to exist at all when the elim team has to outnumber and they only can have two people in a game that started with twelve, but that's a claim I guess. I can point to multiple games where I reacted stronger, don't push that point please, it's never been valid before and it won't start being valid now :P.

So like, reads are irrelevant then :P. And exceptions not entered into the equation. Cool. I think all factors should be considered, it's why I haven't snapvoted TUN since he's in both as well. Why me over him, for you?

Should we be? I'm not convinced of that :P. I'm not convinced of anything, I don't think. And I claimed to Kas, but I still don't want to claim in thread. Is that why you're voting me, because I haven't claimed?

Ah. RIP. That to me seems close enough that it wouldn't be e!JNV jumping on an opportunity. Makes sense to me that at the very least they were involved in you getting a shield one way or another, and that probably means they're a Smith. I don't remember meta past like two or three games unless it's a well known thing or something monumental, and I don't think I've ever made that connection before (though I will keep it in mind for later). And you know that as far as AG games though, identities never quite seperate from the animal accounts for me as far as meta goes xD Probably willing, yes. As I've mentioned many a time, haven't looked too closely at all the worlds, I've mostly been bouncing stuff back and forth in PMs and what you see in the thread, and now I've gotta do school, but I think there's enough there so that I wouldn't be actively against it.

Alright, I'm back. Today will be the same activity wise as yesterday (ideally a bit less, actually, I should focus more on school :P) but I should be around for quick PMs and stuff for the next few hours. I don't think I'll be here for rollover, having to check out twenty minutes before again, which is too bad, but at least I can give a proper warning this time. Can people start with items? Araris making you his Heir seems reasonable and if he started with a shield that would make sense, but I think he probably would have told you if that were the case. Did you claim to have got the shield before JNV said they made it for you? I think leaning unlikely is probably a good way to lean though. The only way this makes sense to me as Melkor!Devo is as an attempt to be TWTBAW, but given Devo's play this game that wouldn't surprise me. Here, I'll walk you through my progression the best I can-- The first time I mentioned suspicion was an edit in this post, though iirc it was edited in seconds after the post went up. Here is the primary reason I suspected Araris, and it remained true through his death: That his pop-in to vote TUN was picking the easiest option of them all to vote, and that the reasoning he cited is overused for TUN. To me it showed little investment for someone who I think should know TUN's meta. The second time was here, in response to Archer. I mention activity a bit here but it's not in the CC sort of way, it's in the 'I just played with v!Araris and there is a very noticeable difference' sort of way. But even then it wasn't my main point. I kinda was testing the waters as far as Archer's read went, because I'd rather vote with someone than on my own as a general rule, but ultimately when it comes down to it I'm gonna vote where my suspicions are. People mistook that for opportunistic which is annoying but also fine, I just thought it was interesting that I got singled out despite me definitely not being the only one who voted someone in response to someone else having a suspicion or vote :P. Later Araris and I had a small interaction but it didn't explain why the TUN read is different this time, just doubled down on it. There's not really much to note here for my progression, just to say that I was still surprised Araris seemed unaware that his TUN read was almost copy+pasted from a bunch of other TUN games and that caused me to believe that he wasn't unaware at all. (Pause to say here that none of this is meant to be a TUN defense-- I think that the read Araris gave should have resulted in NAI, not elim or village). He survived the D1 tie, which I suppose is unremarkable now but I may have confibaised that into my reasoning a teeeeeny bit :P. Dannnex was in that tie, too. Maybe I should learn from my mistakes and forget about that but I don't want to forget about it :D. Friendly reminder that you also voted Araris a few hours into D2, and I didn't see any reasoning from you :P. My first C2 megatype post is here, if you go to the read there you can see again me citing my reasoning that isn't activity related. It probably wasn't fair of me to say he made no attempt to solve outside of TUN but he did not make a second elim read up to this point, and you know how I tunnel so I don't think it's surprising I turned a blind eye to his comments about the dannex train and the like :P. I read those more as filler than anything else, iirc. And again, the activity point isn't CC focused, it's focused on noting the difference from his v!norm. This Araris post only responded to my activity point, not my main point, which I thought was interesting. I also didn't like how he just voted the person voting him, when in his vote post there isn't much reasoning for e!me, it looked like he just grabbed names into a PoE and then picked the person going after him. I also disagreed with the TUN point he had in this post (Again- not a TUN defense. I think Melkor!TUN could have fake claimed Finwe, but I think it was a joke whether he's v or e). I responded to that Araris post here, but I essentially just said what I did in the above paragraph. This might be why you only thought I was voting him for activity, but this post only has activity mentioned because it's the only thing Araris mentioned, and I was replying to him. That same post was where I had my crack theory, and I'm having to restrain myself from explaining it again but can you see how it made sense? xD But the main takeaway here or the thing I'm trying to show you is that it wasn't why I was voting Araris, that I had former reasoning, and that the progression makes sense. The theory added fuel to the fire, though :P. But yeah, TL;DR is that I thought his TUN read was overused and therefore an easy choice that showed lower effort than I'd have thought from Araris, and that he focused on that read too much, only branching out on his elim reads to vote the person voting him. As a supporting point, activity levels being much lower than his village game from a few weeks ago (which is a different thing than a CC) and the crack theory at the end to solidify my vote. Hope that makes sense; it was much longer than I ever intended it to be :P.

Can you not act like the only reason my vote was there was CC and my crack theory >> It wasn't a CC. And my vote was there long before I had the theory. I've explained why I voted there multiple times and I really wish people would stop misrepresenting my actions :P. Only have time for this bit rn but I'll reply to other stuff in a few hours.

Consider the world of v!me. What happens to this theory then? Because I can see e!Dannex here but only if he’s a convert, unless he got a lucky guess with the PM scan on C2. Or learned some other way that Araris didn’t have a PM with me (this would be something like Dannnex’s convertee having a PM with Araris and Araris mentioning that it was his only PM to the convertee, or something of the sort. Not a very likely option, imo) It is interesting to consider convertee!Dannex though, the first thing that comes to mind is Devo’s large Archer push late D1, which seemed out of place for her. That could be explained by her having submitted a conversion on Dannex and wanting to get the exe elsewhere. Idk how high Devo’s risk tolerance is though for when that didn’t work. Ah, but you also were unaware of the fact that my PMs with Araris almost never get more than two messages in. Some people are easier for me to think of things to say to, and Araris isn’t that for me I do normally like to PM my elim suspects to feel them out but I don’t do that unless I think it’ll actually work.

Works for me. There are a number of passive role abilities, though, so we need to be careful with that too. I think the open PMs prove your role well enough, just not your allegiance. Haven’t decided that yet. I think I lean more vil on you after Araris’ flip but I’m not sure how connected you are v/v wise, just that I drew e/e connections. I’ll look into that.

Hmm. I guess I was kinda right about what Archer was doing— I just thought I’d have to survive a coin flip. Or that I’d just die to Araris’ Melkor Cunning. But I figured the random switches at the end were to muddy the waters as for his votes. I’ll probably take a look at Conq’s reads, but I think it’s possible he was killed simply because he was village read. I’m worried about hyperfocusing on our Melkor PoE when the confirmation as to whether Melkor has another role was PAFOd, not shot down. There’s a certain amount of uncertainty there where I’m not confident enough in distro guessing to say. But Devo and TUN is a decent starting point for today. TUN— you out of the lineup when it was 1-1-1-1 etc, because I v read Devo more than you, I was an option, and I didn’t want to kill Bookworm. Leaving you and JNV but then he claimed. I still preferred Araris though which is why I didn’t switch.

We have a PM, yes. I think I know what you’re doing with your votes but maybe I don’t :P. edit: nope definitely don’t lol

Seems like an overreaction but ok That’s a very Kas way to read your claimed role, whether accurate or not Guess we’ll see. What did you think of Shining’s point about Devo seeming to have made a conscious change from last game? I thought that was an interesting take. Ninja’d by Archer. Hi :P.

It didn't show in your interactions with them :P. Also until this exact second I thought Converted!Symph was your only angle for this. Wasn't that your reasoning you used when you voted them? Melkor!Symph I don't think ever made sense with no counterclaim. Ah yes, dannnnnnex, he who best grammar and punctuation on the Shard. Edit; Also I didn't realize the VC was that bad. Yikes. If I'm consolidating it'd be on TUN or Devo but I'd really rather it be on Araris :3 or I could start a Dannnex train and see if it goes

Oh. That probably makes more sense than just killing Araris or Dannex :P. But it is weird that they happened to scan PMs with each other and that neither of them seem to be concerned about the other's existence. This heightens the possibility that I switch to JNV, but I'll stay for now still. Let me keep my pet read ;-;

I actually disagree with this-- I'll be the first to admit that I didn't catch it at first either, but I think that it being clear what Kas was doing is more evidence for it being a joke on TUN's part, not less. And Kas caught onto it pretty quickly. If it isn't a joke, then what is it? I don't think Melkor!TUN tries to get away with a legitimate Finwe counterclaim, though I could see Melkor!TUN still making that joke. You were pretty active last game, active enough for most of the player list to correctly read you village. It's enough of a change that it got my attention, though I'm still more interested in who you're pushing/why. I don't see the world of Finwe!TUN and Melkor!Kas as a possibility, personally, because I think TUN wouldn't have backed off if that were the case. Maybe someone else as Finwe, but the silence doesn't really make sense. So yeah, I'm pretty committed to v!Kas atm unless something really weird happens later. So... you're voting me why? What do you think of Kas' claim to be Finwe? Ok, here's my current problem with Dannex: Then Araris claimed, and guess what? No reaction from dannex. Calm questioning, yes, but no reaction. So here's a crack theory: Melkor!Araris converts dannex yesterday, whether taking the risk or doing it at a time when he's not in danger and then leaving, I don't know. Together they decide to have Araris fake claim Messenger (having Dannex supply the necessary details for the claim to be believable) and then bam, instant NotMelkor claim, and distancing as a bonus. It kind of seems outlandish but like it would explain Dannex's vote on the Feanor claim (since I still don't like his reasoning, at least for C2) Why dannex was unfazed by Araris claiming the role he said hours before he'd place immediate and strong suspicion on if it was claimed. Dannex picking me and Araris for a PM scan and only saying it after the cycle had resolved-- He'd know beforehand that we didn't, since Araris converted him. And with nothing in Araris' post being a standout for me, plus him casting a relatively unexplained vote on the person voting him, I think I'll keep my vote where it is. There could very well just be double Messengers, but I've had enough absolute failed distro guesses to not want to change a theory or suspicion based on that. I think you're right that Son of Feanor makes sense as a double, and that the other ones are probably just staying quiet. You can say it's an oddity if he's really the only known double but right now I don't think we know enough to say that. I thought you were village reading Devo, though. Did you mention that progression in thread, or did Finwe just do the exact thing he voted me for earlier in the day? :P. I might consolidate to JNV closer to rollover (which I... should be around for today [he says hesitantly]) but I do want to test my theory. So we'll see :P.

I got to the part in the rules analysis after writing that sentence, but yeah. Got it, thanks :P. Dunno why that didn't just occur to me lol I mean. All I said was that the people elim reading you are doing the same thing everyone always does, and I ended with a 4.9/10 (essentially me saying: I think the points against you are valid elim points but also probably null) but if that's a good thing in your books, cool I guess :P. That's fair, actually, though, it's certainly possible Melkor switched that fast since there were plenty of people online at EoD but you're right that the uncertainty surrounding who was exed makes that more unlikely. I think 'very strong' is a bit generous, though :P. I'll join Kas on Araris for the moment.

Quick mini sort of catchup post before I do some school for y'all, with a reads list. (Future Mat: It wasn't mini :|) @Kasimir-- your initial self vote was because you wanted to confirm Conq's claim to be a Son of Feanor, or something else? If your implied claim is true that saves me the trouble of trying to solve you so this is more just to pique my curiosity and clear things up. I do think TUN saying that it'd be not allowed for him to send you a PM could be him misunderstanding the Finwe rules (though it certainly doesn't look like that from his rule analysis) but just to be clear: @The Unknown Novel, why did you say it wouldn't be allowed for you to send Kas a PM? It makes sense why Kas voted TUN there but the unvote doesn't make sense from me trying to be in Kas' PoV and I feel like I'm missing a piece of the puzzle here. @dannnnnnex I don't know if Bookworm is the best immediate kill since there's a rather large IKYK to whether they were converted or not, and theoretically Melkor can make stuff anyway and can't use a Fell Sword so Feanor wouldn't be a super useful conversion. But as I said, IKYK so maybe that's just what Melkor wants us to think :P. Something I've seen before is a strong village lean on Devotary for playing aggressively (don't remember where that came from) and I don't really agree with that, I feel like most or all of Devo's SK/elim wins that I can think of in recent memory came from more aggressive plays, and I wouldn't have called her play this game particularly aggressive with the exception of the Archer vote last cycle. I've never been able to read Devo, so maybe I'm just wary of people who try, but I'd be careful :P. Archer's village read of them is a lot more compelling to me though. Fwiw I don't think there's any way Bookworm is Melkor. For me they're clear unless they were converted. @Archer 1. I mentioned an e lean on Araris before you did and 2. I never voted for Kas :P. Reads: (Light explanations, I've really got to do school :P) Ratings out of ten, numbers are extremely arbitrary. TUN- In the world of Kas/TUN Finwe thunderdome I'd go with Kas first. I think the points on him are valid but nothing we've never seen before and been wrong about. It does occur to me only now that his Finwe claim was probably a joke but I think that'd be NAI :P. 4.9/10 villageriness and a potential Melkor. Araris- I think my main reasoning for Araris from earlier still stands-- that he used old news as far as reading TUN elim goes and made no effort to solve any further. Busy or no Araris has flown under the radar more than normal and that doesn't sit right with me. 3.9/10 villageriness and a potential Melkor. Shining- In PMs and thread feels the same as last game, but I got the impression from them as a player that they'd be a good elim. I instinctively read his jump on the Archer train as elim, but I was considering following it so that feels like a silly read to make. Plus, is a noble, apparently, so not Melkor, if we believe Melkor can't have a second role. 6.5/10 villageriness. JNV- I don't agree with Kas' JNV read he gave, when he voted there. Asking questions for me is NAI, and JNV hasn't given me a reason to read them either way right now. They did their NAI vote analysis, their wallpost commenting on selective things (normal) and a self pres vote. Probably should PM for a better read. 5/10 villageriness [Null] Possible Melkor. Conq- Nobleness + Save Dan! movement + wallposts in a similar style to his last game = 8/10 villageriness Dannex- Good vibes in PMs + Messenger claim that I can back up both are village indicative but I acknowledge that both of those points are also C1 exclusive. I think that converted!Dannex would certainly try to kill Feanor the way he's doing, and I guess I need to see if I still village read Dannex later today. 7/10 villageriness. Devo- I more disagree with the reasons behind the v!Devo reads than e!read Devo myself, save for Archer's point-- I do agree that it'd probably be not worth Devo's trouble to do all of that, but as I said above I think it's within Devo's elim meta for it to be possible. 6/10 villageriness, potential Melkor. Bookworm- I believe they are Feanor. Whether they're converted is a shrug and a half. shrug/10 villageriness. Archer- Claimed and (I think) proved to be an Orator. I always have trouble reading Archer and am similarly conflicted on his most recent post; the Devo read I liked but the note about PMs I didn't-- I dispute the idea that Melkor is the only one interested in secrets, along with that secrets are the only reason for PMing :P. I'll pay attention to his votes later on, but for now 7/10 villageriness. Kas- I do think this number would be lower if he hadn't heavily softed Finwe-- I think the reasons behind his votes haven't been very good, any of them, but maybe I just still don't understand Kas' vote philosophy even after that long discussion we had that one time :P. But like, if he's Finwe then he's village and only village, so 8.1/10 villageriness I suppose. Technically a potential Melkor. Giving us a tier list that makes itself: Kas, Conq, [Bookworm?] Dannex, Archer Shining, Devo JNV TUN, Araris It ends up kinda just being 'claims' above 'non-claims' which I suppose makes sense but I will say that I think at the current stage, assuming a conversion, I think Dannex is the most likely. I'm closing the tab so I won't reply to anything for the next few hours.

I think dannnnex is saying that he tried to spy on a PM between me and Araris, and that one doesn’t exist, which is true. I have a PM with dannnex myself but that shouldn’t matter here. Sorry for being absent this morning, I’ve been busy. Yesterday is likely to be my most active day, unfortunately :P. Probably don’t have time for a big catch-up post but in an hour or two I should be able to reply and comment on some things.

I didn't post the progression because I figured I could revisit it later :P. Which maybe was a mistake, but it wasn't a huge case or anything. Just that I reskimmed the thread and noticed a few things I maybe could put my finger on, but maybe not. My rereading and quiet decision? Dunno what you want me to say here, I didn't write a post about it since I didn't think it was worth the time yet. It became worth mentioning when it became apparent I wasn't the only one. This reasoning doesn't hold because it shuts down the world where I reread, reconsidered, and held the thought. Which I do quite a lot, actually, in every game. I know, but you know me >> Off to bed, will reread tomorrow (mostly EoD) and come with a newer reads list. I guess focusing on the pool of 6 possible Melkors we have out there, though technically it's possible that Melkor has a role.

Interesting overexaggeration of my progression you have there :P. This isn't a new thing, I've mentioned in PMs to people feeling ehish about you, along with that I'd rather not explore that D1 and just that in general I like to solve you later game. You know, for paranoia reasons. But I didn't come out of the blue and decide to push you, I'm not even pushing you: This isn't even really a thing. I offhandedly mentioned it in thread, I think (?) once last turn, and then just in joking right now. No opportunistic anything, or this would be a push. And like, weak point, but cmon why would e!me knowingly push v!you, that's most certainly not the easiest path forward Am I not allowed to reread your posts and reconsider while you're asleep? Can I only get reads off of new content as it is put out? ...Yeah don't mind my brain just skipping over the part where it says 'Galadriel' and just going to the green 'Faithful' :P. I get it now >> I see, thanks. Bookworm claimed Feanor, not Shining. I think. I guess I just saw that Archer said he'd move a vote to Araris, and there it is. I'd be interested to see you attempt that given that I usually like to do VC analysis to find links between teammates, but I know we approach VC analysis very differently