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Mat

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Everything posted by Mat

  1. Mat
    I prefer JNV to Shining I think, if only because of Shining staying on xino last cycle, but idk if I prefer Stick to JNV. I have work and I’ll miss rollover by two hours so we’ll see where my vote ends up I guess :P. I did like JNV’s last post and there’s potential for Stick’s flip reflecting on Conq so I might move in about an hour. Edit: But if people moved to Shqueeves I wouldn’t be opposed to that.
  2. Mat
    Ok I've never fully addressed that Araris being afk wasn't taken into consideration at all on D2 of the QF, it wasn't like I thought, "oh, he's not here, now's the time to kill him!" Like I would have tried to if he'd been in the thread anyway. That's a tangent, sorry, but there's no Aftermath for the QF still and I've been wanting to clarify that for a while
  3. Mat
    My guess would be that e!xino will vote where it's easy to do so, especially if it's the opposing train to a teammate, but would probably prioritize saving a teammate over making a vote that makes perfect sense with his progression. Those are all assumptions as I really don't remember that game :P.
  4. Mat
    Ah, I see. It's also possible he forgot that ties didn't kill or didn't know if xino would be back on but pressing that argument is just going full-on devil's advocate Makes sense to me.
  5. Mat
    Could he have saved him? I mean, obviously my vote was moveable and if Conq had voted elsewhere I likely would have too (depending where it was), but he didn't know that when he voted. From his PoV he could have assumed it was a lost cause. Or not, idk :P.
  6. Mat
    Essentially what Illwei said-- it'd make some sense for e!Conq in this case to be trying to stop everyone from killing his teammate next. He was super confident on me so it's odd that he left it for a Stick case that I guess wasn't very good, but I do agree that Conq going as hard as he did on me/Illwei is a good look, I've said as much before. And again, I don't know Conq's elim meta, I don't know if he'd bus like that or not. Just looking at all the possibilities I wasn't about to vote him out today. But an e!JNV strengthens the chance of e!Conq, imo
  7. Mat
    I could be convinced of a [Conq, JNV/Shining] team because of just this, tbh. Probably JNV since I doubt both of xino's teammates end up voting him.
  8. Mat
    Ah ok, that was my question. I wasn't sure if xino had voted before Stick had two votes, or after. I agree that xino's motive wasn't to protect Stick.
  9. Mat
    You're good! What was it you said, "Mat doesn't like to be voted on"? xD No one does, right? :P. I expected pressure but I expected it less from multiple sources, not more from one source Actually, I'm surprised at how many people village read me. One of those who's specifically said I'm village is probably elim. The Stick case makes sense; xino's Wiz vote would then be in defense of Stick. Did he cast it when Stick was up 2-1, or was it before? Good eye, I'll think on that and reread Stick when I get the chance.
  10. Mat
    The first of those is probably the weakest but their sort of interaction in the post I linked earlier doesn't read e/e to me and also just like I kinda doubt the two leading-ish trains today are both right just out of principle :P. Second of those because Stick has been gunning for Shining like the whole game Third of those because JNV went for Stick instead of xino
  11. Mat
    If there's anything about Shining that's giving me pause right now, it's this-- he's playing noticeably different from his village game. He's also playing different from his elim game but if there's a sudden playstyle change I'd more likely read that as evil. I could understand Shining wanting to appear different from our QF loss and I'd have expected v!Shining to just be the same, there wasn't really a reason to change playstyle since a few weeks ago. I didn't know what the VC was, so when I saw xino's vote on me I retaliated :P. And like Illwei said, that vote was kinda outing to begin with. Or at least it loooked bad. My Kas case was only kind of a case and the real reason I unvoted xino was because I looked at how little resistance his exe had and thought that meant he was village. I mean, edit 2 was made at 8:00 and edit 3 was like 8:02 :P. Also I kind of just thought that everyone had Blessings. Hope that doesn't get me NKd :D. I think I feel better on Shining than JNV. Shining's play has been different enough that it's pinging me, but honestly this post might be enough for me to change my mind again. I don't really see why e!Shining sticks to their vote after being called out on it here, especially after calling for consolidation. They're voting xino in a 2-2-2 tie or something like that, the best move for e!them is to listen to JNV and their own advice and move elsewhere. Actually no I've convinced myself again. JNV. JNV/Shining not e/e Stick/Shining not e/e JNV/Stick not e/e @Shqueeves, what do you think about all of this?
  12. Mat
    I don't think so, but I was on mobile and was paying attention to the posts so I might have missed something. No one posted at least, but you can see that for yourself :P.
  13. Mat
    What would that mean if it was?
  14. Mat
    And I've detailed quite well why you shouldn't be The last two times of which you've brushed off without a comment on them. If you're not going to reconsider that's one thing I guess but I can't imagine what I'm saying doesn't make sense to you in some capacity. -- Willing to move Kas further back in my PoE, he's progressively read more normal to me than his opening posts did and the xino weirdness is weird, not incriminating, so I'm looking at [JNV, Shining, Shqueeves] as my PoE with [Stick, Kas] as secondaries (at least until someone tells me why Stick isn't in anyone's PoE that I can tell) and [Turtle, Bookworm] as low/inactives. My reads have suddenly aligned with Kas' and I don't know how to feel about that I don't know Conq's elim play at all so what Kas said earlier gives me some pause but I'm still willing to v read him off this push. The way xino treated TUN and Wiz is enough to get them out of my PoE for now, and I do think Illwei's C1 play is decently clearing but I'm not dead set on it by any means (grumbles in LG74) (is this where she apologizes to Vapor?) and I guess that's everyone. I'll tag and pressure @JNV JNV, where are you at? How've you been? Thoughts on the C1 voting and the flips? Also: I've learned that if I ask Illwei I probably won't get an answer. If I ask you I'm more likely to get one :P.
  15. Mat
    Araris is basically the worst person for me to have killed. He was one of my biggest supporters, saying I should be the top village read multiple times. That was his main D1 takeaway. The only worse option for e!me is Illwei, and that might have actually been better than Araris for e!me since a green Illwei flip (I’m working under the assumption that Illwei is village) discredits your theory further and maybe gives me an easier time. e!me doesn’t kill Araris, for any reason. And “So that you can say that” isn’t a viable reason, so don’t try to argue it At that point, if it’s your first thought, you’re just tunnelling Edit: Also, I’m not going to N1 Araris when my D1 stance was “not going to exe because I pushed so hard on him while elim”. You think I say that only to wipe him out in the Night? I have way more respect for him than that. I also see now that I’m reading Kas’ post that he sorta got here before I did but let this be a more complete look at why, I guess :P.
  16. Mat
    I’d have said that me or Illwei dying further clears Conq in my eyes, but since that didn’t happen idk if it should be reversed the other way. Probably not since this is a big IKYK anyway. More analysis and things tomorrow but I’m not surprised about that kill or that flip.
  17. Mat
  18. Mat
    So let me get this straight: You think xino's teammates chose to bus him to heck while being the only ones online at EoD. You think, even though they likely had the vote power to save him (and reads that fit together enough to both vote Kas or both vote Shqueeves, or literally anyone else) they opted not to. And you think the double-ninja reaction votes towards xino's vote on me is somehow e/e/e? Just making that clear. Because I can see how you can push one of us, but thinking it's both is kind of absurd :P. If the entire elim team are the only ones online at EoD with trains like that, uh, xino doesn't die :P. Votes without a reason are NAI for Illwei, Stick mentioned as much last turn e/e or v/v or e/v pairings are also Illwei's thing-- and the last time she made those on D1 they had like an 80% accuracy rate or something crazy like that, and trust me, there was a reason for it. Idk what you want me to do on D1. No ability for VC analysis and there were at most 3-4 posts per person. Vibes is like, all I got. Also known as: zero time Again, if the three elims are the only people in thread there'd be no toe stepping because there'd be no village pressure to do so. As for the first lines of this, I think it's funny you think xino was thinking about distancing while he was voting with like ninety seconds left before he died. He was thinking of survival and nothing more, as evidenced by his switching to whoever he thought was the top train. I'm only evil with Kas because if xino is ending on v!Kas then he isn't going to vote e!me first, and I know you keep thinking this is distancing but again xino voted at 7:59. That'd be a weird time to start distancing. Real weird. He got online with the intention only to live. That leaves forty unaccounted for minutes, and I was aware of the thread during that time even if I didn't. And like. That's actually more evidence to my point, not less. Easier to abandon the train while it's slow, and yet I didn't. You talk about how much Illwei/xino/me would have to be distancing yet almost all of your evidence points to us being terrible at it Your whole case is tinfoiled and I understand that, but before you try kill the two people who hammered the elim at the end maybe look at the people who didn't. One thing about this is I really don't think e!you tries to push this angle so I'm happy v reading you right now.
  19. Mat
    While mining in the Dalryan mountain range, an ancient well of power is discovered and harnessed, though the Council of Six still wishes to remain neutral
  20. Mat
    xino’s only motive was clearly survival— otherwise, why switch the vote at all once he’s cast it? His vote on me at all, cast that close to EoD, doesn’t make sense if we’re e/e, since he would have just voted Kas from the beginning if we were. So unless you think the team is me/Kas/xino, it doesn’t make sense. You weren’t online at EoD, and I can tell you that the assumption that everyone knew the VC and had time to think about anything is false. xino’s vote, Illwei’s vote, my vote, and xino’s edit all happened within literally a thirty second window. Probably less. That feels like a trick question xD I think it’s funny because it looks like I’m trying to save xino, it’s not Kas in particular, when I know I wasn’t. Like, to me, the line ‘No, this is too easy, the wagon here points to v!xino’ is a very funny line :P. Dunno if I think Kas is elim, I think there’s definitely grounds for a case there. Nothing I said last previously has really changed. But again, I’m only evil with Kas and you said that you read Kas village. Also, I switched to Kas at what, 20 minutes to EoD? e!me gets off that train wayyy before that. If I’m voting a teammate at 20 minutes to EoD I’m cutting my losses and staying there every time.
  21. Mat
    What do you think about xino being on Wiz for most of the turn?
  22. Mat
    As this was the response I was expecting going into tonight, your views are refreshing But I'd take a look at Illwei's signal boost about how xino wouldn't have voted me and then Kas if I were elim, instead going straight for Kas. Unless you think I'm elim with Kas, and you said you read Kas as village, there's no reason for xino to vote me first if we're teamed. Edit: You also seem to think I'd vote directly alongside my elim teammate, which isn't true. You also argue that I'd be smart enough to not out myself by basically arguing that I outed myself, and seem to think I was a lot more put together at EoD than I was :P. I was on mobile, c/ping red text like a maniac and trying to figure out what the heck was going on-- definitely not in a place to be thinking about distancing or ties. I agree that my switch to Kas looks bad (I just think it looks funny, but that's from my PoV) but you have to look at xino's actions as well, and he voted me when he thought it'd cause his survival. When he saw me and Illwei both vote him, he could have switched to Kas as distancing, but it's also possible that he switched before he saw our votes because he thought he might have a better chance voting with me rather than against me.
  23. Mat
    Fair :P. I think it's a good definition. I was evil in the QF, after all, and you weren't wrong about my motives there being somewhat intentionally opportunistic and I didn't hide it very well. It's true that you know your own motives but that's also what I said about myself in the QF :P. But all that means is this discussion won't get anywhere productive The response has been noted, thanks. Three elims with an extra kill makes sense as a distro to me-- that's 21% of the player list and 3/13 is 23% if we factor in the kill that way. Two seems low. I agree with the PoE of [Shining, Kas, JNV, Conq] to start with [Shqueeves, Turtle] as secondary-- IMO this xino post is enough for me to look past both Wiz and TUN. xino doesn't strike me as someone who'd focus on bussing, he'd probably want to keep his interactions limited to people he's not teamed with since he usually only posts a few times a cycle. Of the first four, Shining/Conq fall into the bussing group and Kas/JNV don't, JNV because they voted Stick and Kas just wasn't around at EoD but he never really added any pressure to xino or mentioned that train at all iirc. I want to be reading Shining as village but having just elimmed with him I'm kind of having a hard time, the main thing that makes me pause is that he didn't want to bus me, like at all-- though the situations of my exe and xino's were obviously different. Could go either way for me. Conq's vote I instinctively read more village, if I were e!Conq right there I probably wouldn't have bothered posting at all. As for everyone else, Illwei and Araris I agree can be more or less cleared for their votes. I don't remember why I left Stick out of my PoEs but maybe I should put her back in? xD She's not teamed with JNV, at least. And then Shqueeves and Turtle are left over. It was a bit of both. I was happy to self preserve but I also abruptly became much less concerned about the xino train. I wish it was, but no I legitimately just read the thread mood as pointing to v!xino and was trying to run away from that train to my next elim read :P.
  24. Mat
    …I see my powers of thread mood reading are pretty much terrible, very cool Probably can get a few good clears off of that, I’d at least hope so :P. Notable that xino first voted me at EoD and then switched to Kas but idk in what way that is notable
  25. Mat
    xino Edit: Lol edit 2: wait he changed to Kas nvm too late, no clue what to make of that anyway edit 3: Hi, Ash
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