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Mat

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Everything posted by Mat

  1. Mat
    Sorry about that Now I’m annoyed I used my Blessing but I hoped that just this once this could be easy ;-; More thinking tomorrow, I suppose we’ll have to do a lot of that. No, Kas, I’m not auto killing you tomorrow.
  2. Mat
    Giant cinnamon rolls Sunday morning! :D.
  3. Mat
    I picked that point because you picked that point, in your initial response ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And yeah @Kas agreeing to that is like the opposite of rethinking and reevaluating and like is never a good idea :P.
  4. Mat
    I argued you’re a good candidate looking at the VC History, but I’m also not the person you tagged. I think my original points are what Kas first agreed with though. The point of quoting again that was to show that there’s an entire elim tier below where you put JNV’s name in green. So even if you didn’t mean to put them in green, you still didn’t read them as elim and from our POV it does look like at least a v lean of JNV.
  5. Mat
    That was just to say that the one point Illwei chose to refute was done so inaccurately. JNV was closer to the top of her reads list and in a very clear shade of green signaling a village read. So nothing changes for me.
  6. Mat
    This isn’t exactly the bottom, to be fair :P.
  7. Mat
    Can you unvote yourself though :P.
  8. Mat
    I mean, from the looks of it xino was afk for a few hours and came online just in time to vote whoever he thought to in the moment so I doubt it was planned in the doc, I doubt he was in the doc at EoD at all. Which I guess is the counterpoint you mentioned, but what you’d call going rogue I’d call having no time
  9. Mat
    I think I lead on calling it outing more than I intended to, but I kinda went along with Illwei calling it that since my thought process during those last minutes was ‘xino voted me, I’m now not hesitant to vote xino’ ‘he switched to Kas what does that mean’ and my own ambiguity was in why I wasn’t hesitant to vote xino anymore. (Edit: to clarify: I had no clue why I suddenly didn’t mind his vote anymore, barring self pres) It was at least partially self pres on my part but also I’d figured that my train had somewhat died so it didn’t look like xino was self pressing in the moment, and there’s something about a sudden appearance to naked vote that looks suspicious :P. Idk if that makes any sense but it’s an answer xD To answer the second question, after Illwei’s unvote xino’s only tied with the other train (with several others close behind) and out of all of them xino’s probably had the least reason behind it. So it’s not unreasonable to assume that he’d probably be fine. Plus, xino wasn’t voting Stick at that stage, so a self pres would save him, and Illwei’s own vote was in reserve. And if the votes stayed that way, he’d survive anyway. I don’t think a bus at :59 is out of the question because as you said, Illwei jumping to save xino wouldn’t have slipped my notice and if you’re not saving him why not join in since he’s already dead. But if Illwei’s village, then where are the elims? There has to be a point eventually where, as usual, something vaguely irrational is actually what happened. Assuming otherwise makes for a very boring D1 which I suppose is possible but with the way the trains were moving doesn’t feel right to me. Ah, whatever, I’ve put it off long enough. Illwei.
  10. Mat
    It is, but Bookworm left no read to step into. e!Archer has a better shot pushing the other active slots and getting v read to ride out the endgame than immediately pulling a gambit that might get him killed. Honestly, half of it comes from a quick scan of the C1 VCs you supplied— Illwei’s sitting on a side train to xino the entire turn, only switching off when (in her own words) xino outs himself by voting me. e!Illwei would have known I’d self pres and at that point xino has enough votes anyway that Illwei couldn’t have saved him. The only thing would be that she didn’t follow me onto you, but the VC numbers wouldn’t have been enough there anyway and there was a case to be made that I’d be the one to switch onto Shqueeves. Which I think I did, for about two seconds. On D2 it’s something similar; JNV was a train for far less time than xino was but Illwei was voting Turtle and then Shining. And then suggesting TUN last turn and naked voting you today. All that is said without actually looking at Illwei’s posts, so that probably deserves a second look, but with all the reasons I have to not vote everyone else it seems a decent enough case to me. And thanks! But the difference between you and me is that you still megapost
  11. Mat
    That was a misunderstanding on my part, but I still stand by it being unlikely for e!Archer to open with a counterclaim. It’s odd either way, but when replacing an inactive, why draw undue attention to yourself? I feel like there’s enough to not vote a slot we have effectively nothing on today. I still agree with my marking of JNV/Stick and JNV/Shining as not e/e for reasons explained and I agree with Shining that TUN looks village from JNV including him in their shot list. Wiz shot JNV, I won’t endorse a Kas kill today, so I’m kind of down to just Illwei and Turtle at this point and I think there’s VC mechanic reasons pointing to e!Illwei. I’ll outline those hopefully but I’m dead tired after this week, I have to work tonight, and tomorrow’s Sunday so I’ll be on less so don’t count on it. But idk.
  12. Mat
    I agree, Kas. Unvote yourself please
  13. Mat
    How bout the fact that there was an elim kill? :P.
  14. Mat
    Fwiw I don’t think there’s any way e!Archer counterclaims that without checking to see that it’s impossible first, he’s a better player than that. I also don’t think there’s any way e!him counterclaims it at all since with a probable 1v8 (or even a 2v6) starting a 1v1 is suicide. So I bet it’s a reaction test.
  15. Mat
    I’d be interested to hear your case. Also, @The Wandering Wizard, well done! I knew I village read you
  16. Mat
    Not without thought. Interesting for you to say that Tbh I have half a mind to suspect Illwei for suggesting that, since JNV was (kind of) almost killed last cycle and it’d be beneficial for the other elim to point in a different direction. I think Shining looks good for being the opposite train to JNV last cycle and I bet we can make a stab based on the C2 VC analysis mixed with JNV’s own reads, which again I’ll look at closer tomorrow, but off the top of my head I can soft clear Shining and Stick which is pretty nice tbh Edit: And if we want to go down the dark rabbit hole of GM meta which shouldn’t be touched too directly, I’d guess that the final elim falls into the experienced/active category more than the new/inactive category just based on the JNV and xino flips. That kind of analysis feels like cheating though :P. Even if there’s no guaranteed reliability.
  17. Mat
    Hmm, ok. Good shot, maybe claim that if you’re not widely village read, maybe claim it anyway since you’re only a one shot. Not really surprised by either of those flips (though I’m kinda surprised at the choice of a Conq kill, ngl) but I’m disappointed in myself for paranoiding Conq and moving off JNV :P. This feels like it should be straightforward but idk in what way; I’ll check more tomorrow.
  18. Mat
    Not really but I guess I don’t see a reason to do that either. I could say he seems to be lower in activity than normal but I’ll be rebutted by times that prove otherwise. His last post does read kinda evil to me since Shining seems good atm
  19. Mat
    *raises hand* Backed down a bit but whatever. You're right that an e!Kas should be resolved fast but we know full well how useful a v!Kas is for the village at exlo :P.
  20. Mat
  21. Mat
    I agree with Kas more on that one, for the reasons he said, and I don't really have much more to add. I think it's within Shining's playstyle to have voted a teammate but I guess I'm still just stuck on why they stayed-- it's a gambit and a gamble, but with a low active xino and him being a Coinshot on D1 there isn't much incentive for that to happen.
  22. Mat
    The Dalyran Council of Six approach the leader of the Republic of Vaebudal, through a pair of messengers, and offer to join forces in light of the growing conflict elsewhere. In return, they offer to allow the Vaebudan scientists access to the well of power beneath the Dalryan mountains.
  23. Mat
    I took TUN out of my PoE because he was one of two people xino suspected but I’m not sure how much stock we should put in that. I feel like killing a lower active isn’t our best course of action for tomorrow (even if we did already get a hit that way :P) but I guess that depends on how you define lower active. There’s only so much you can do with almost no info.
  24. Mat
    Well that’s annoying but whatever I guess This opinion is kinda eh from your POV since I’m on the list but I’d switch myself out with Kas there if I need to have two. Kas felt like v Kas this turn but Wiz was voted on by xino in a way that makes me think they’re unpaired. Shining… I still don’t know why e!them stays on xino though. Does there have to be an elim on the train :P. I’ll look at wagonomics tomorrow ig
  25. Mat
    I’ll trust Illwei since I really have no idea about Stick and I’d rather my vote do something, if no one’s voting JNV, so I’ll go onto Shqueeves Last post this turn, gl everyone :P.
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