Mat

What weave did you try to perform on D3?

I’ll save Devo the trouble, she claimed Shepherd to me in PMs yesterday, and also claims to have never gotten a weave off At least we’ve narrowed it down to two >>

Not really, the OP of this thread as everything you’d need to know. So check there, I guess? Basically it entails making a game, getting it approved, and then running it with good formatting, etc.

Since xino was a Forsaken candidate for me that’s a… weird kill :P. I changed my mind about Araris/Devo being e/e, I don’t think it’s likely that two elims were both RBd the same turn when one likely came from Vorros and I don’t see the point behind conceiving that double lie. That almost forces me to assume Sart and one of Araris/Devo as the team if I continue to trust Luck, which I do still feel good about. Maybe that’s a mistake but dang it Luck deserves to win if she’s elim at this point, the sheer effort she’s done isn’t gonna make me vote her anytime soon :P. And yet like I still hesitate to vote Sart for some reason

It means you run a game when your slot comes up

I’m sure that’s be fine. I was slow getting the tag list out anyway, so an extra few days shouldn’t hurt.

Here’s the QF list: @Illwei @Fifth Scholar @Szeth_Pancakes @xinoehp512 @Araris Valerian Followed by me, Striker, Karnatheon, Kas, and Striker again. As always, if no one on the first list is able to take it I should be able to, though now less than before since school’s about to start and I’m a lot busier this year. I guess I’ll see, but hopefully one of the first five can do it.

That just looks like a guess to me :P. For a two person team that guess makes sense, I’d said as much myself. e!me making a distro guess would specifically not say exactly what it is, anyway, but there’s nothing notable there for me. Also, we technically don’t know that there’s a Forsaken but I do think there is. Or at least the elims really want us to think there is.

Only with a specific weave, but yes.

That’s fair, I think. But if you trust someone enough to PM them I think that’d be best, for accountability reasons. Like if you can take a provable action tonight and claim it before you do it, that kind of thing. Yeah, exactly. It’s a null vote at this point, Devo always votes last minute, I don’t think that’s a valid reason for a village read for me. The justification kinda boils down to there not being many other options— I still don’t believe e!Luck posts the way they have been, especially the extensive Conq case summary on D1, and I think Sart is village off of yesterday and the mechanic solving. Though I’m open to it being him and the Forsaken, in that case, tomorrow he’d be pushing the one of you/Devo who’s the villager. xino’s been inactive and it’s not me, so that leaves you and Devo. That’s also why I’m not entirely discounting Sart. It’s not an outlandish play to vote outside of Conq for village cred. But I very much doubt xino’s the Forsaken; a vote has disappeared off the trains even when he hasn’t voted iirc. Though I might be wrong about that. Did xino claim? Actually yeah xino/Sart with xino as the Forsaken makes sense to me. Hmm. The PM thing likely isn’t as helpful as you think it is, you could PM one villager, submit the kill, and say the other person you PMd is your teammate and both people would ‘confirm’.

Yeah, I’m with Sart on that. I guess the good news is that if it’s a two person elim team it’s most likely Araris/Devo anyway, and if it’s one it’s not exlo tomorrow. So there’s that. xino’s still a possibility though, now that Conq flipped green. It’d be great if we could get traces on those three at the very least but like I’m not expecting to win by scan cause that’d be lame

I stayed up too late for that flip >> No idea what Vorros was doing D1 but he got a villager killed I guess, I’ll look at worlds tomorrow and come to a better conclusion for exlo. @The Unknown Novel can we get numbers for the VC?

@The Unknown Novel

It felt like you didn’t, but that’s okay I think that’s a good thing. And I don’t think you need to apologize; you’re just playing the game like the rest of us :P.

Do remember that Conq voted Devo but has since moved to focus on me, which I think is significant. Could be distancing. All that means is that this cycle is not exlo, which is a good thing. If Conq is village I think the game can solve itself at that point, so I’m not too worried about that. That’s the kind of paragraph that comes back to bite you, but we’ll see I guess.

1. She, as Devo just pointed out. 2. Did you miss the part about me landing on the you/Devo team like, a few hours ago? :P. I mean, in the e!you world I already said the most likely team was Vorros/Devo, so that was preexisting, but I've always had trouble reading Devo as a general rule. I kinda had her at a neutral stage until Sart's mech post, and only since I believe your claim about Wiz being your Warder and thinking there's prooobably a Forsaken (which doesn't have to be true, I guess), my top candidate goes from you to her. I think Araris has been more village to me but it could be him as well. Or there could not be one and it could just be you. Or not one and you and someone else. Or not you. Idk. What, it's convenient that my Aes Sedai trusted me enough so that we could out Vorros? Yes, that was quite nice. It was not convenient that my protection was stopped. I did get a clarification that I wouldn't specifically be told if I were RBd so it could have been that. Tbh I'm not so sure about your action on me failing but that's a dead end to explore for me here. Or for you to reply to. A pointless argument that will only be resolved by the GM spreadsheet when the game is over But like I very easily could say the same about Wiz dying literally N1, his death and you being bonded to him, quite convenient. That's a good question. I think it was just that I had written off Shining as safe, so coming back to their death blindsided me a little bit and I retaliation claimed. It probably would have been beneficial to hide the fact that I'd be protected every other cycle but whatever, I guess :P. If it helps Sart's analysis that's good too. I didn't claim D2 because I thought it'd have the best chance of ensuring Shining's survival, but that obviously didn't work out. And again, I likely could have convinced Shining not to share the info if I were evil. Ah I see what you mean-- I was referring specifically to the distribution of this game, meaning that there were too many villagers left in the game for this to be a ploy. Since today is likewise not lylo, the same holds true. Making a ploy like that is a valid strategy at lylo since there's only one misexe before the elims win, but that isn't true now and it wasn't true then, so no ploy. I normally don't do a ploy anyway unless I'm on the chopping block. Does that make sense? It wasn't that C3 is a magic number, just that in this game two misexes and three elims makes for a 4-3 ratio, which favors the elims. Ahem That link plus all the other little posts I did I think qualify for a huge case. Did you miss my post this cycle? You're quoting it so I guess not To be fair it's mostly from Vorros' side but you can't deny that his C1 play makes you look bad. You realize you're defending a dead elim, right? :P. If Vorros truly didn't care if you or Illwei went over he had a strange way of showing it. Not that I expected him to not have an opinion but his aggression crossed the line between attacking Illwei and defending you, at least for me. If you're elim you had a very good reason to convince me to move. That was not my whole case (see: the post I linked earlier) and my point was that he had something specific in mind for even/odd protection cycles, which you definitely couldn't get as a blademaster, or Forsaken, or unbonded Aes Sedai, only as a Warder or bonded Aes Sedai. Or in a doc with one. What I think happened is that in the elim doc, you'd mentioned which cycle Wiz was protecting you and Vorros forgot that wasn't common knowledge, but I can see his reaction as a caught-for-the-wrong-reasons and I wouldn't entirely be surprised if I'm wrong, even if both of you are elim. But if I'm right about that I want brownie points There's no reason for him to be fishing for warders as you say if it's somewhat outing, and I didn't claim because of that at all so no, it didn't work in my case. Oh. Yeah, completely missed your vote on my reread tbh so I only saw the part where you were arguing that it was a ploy. I will say there's a difference between voting someone and preparing for their theoretically possible green flip and trusting a scan claim and paranoia-ing its falseness, but I see what you mean. Another sloppy mistake on my part, I misremembered what your team guess was. But a bonded Aes Sedai being switched out for a Warder works as well I think, it still fulfills the role of 'bonded to a villager'. A warder would probably be more balanced, I'll grant you that, but I am no authority on distro guessing to begin with >> But no either way I believe you were bonded to Wiz and are Aes Sedai, that's not what I meant. Maybe because you wrote multiple paragraphs about me on D1, whereas Sart and xino got like a sentence at best? He died voting on Shining, and even if it was me it wouldn't be distancing, it'd be his only chance at survival because at that stage it was an effective me-or-him.

Alright take two, sigh This is inevitably going to be shorter than the first one simply because I don't want to type the whole thing again. Anyway-- Vorros basically spent 90% of his energy D1 attacking Illwei, a focus that was so narrow and so aggressive that I find it hard to believe the trains were v/v. He went almost out of his way to not talk to Conq or comment on the Conq train specifically (except for the random time where he was like 'yeah, Conq train bad'). To me it's obvious Vorros cared which train went over. Furthermore, the timing of his Illwei posts were interesting. His opener was an Illwei casing and came while the Illwei/Conq votes were tied. Future Illwei casings came after other people started looking at Conq, which isn't a hard-and-fast rule but still something I find interesting. Then, of course, the manip away from Conq which I think most people at this point are thinking was Forsaken or at least elim. I'm still not sure how Sart's mech stuff fits tbh but I'm sure there's a way it works. When N1 came, Vorros had a post about considering Conq for an info kill but he literally never mentioned it again. Which just looks like distancing to me. On D2, after I started pushing Vorros but far before he was in danger, Conq randomly PMd me and claimed that Wiz was his Warder (which contradicts a main point in my Vorros case). Conq clearly had me in his elimmier reads (so him claiming to me doesn't make sense) and didn't bother saying this in thread, which implies that he was trying to get me off Vorros' back without drawing attention to that fact. He of course wouldn't have known about the scan and just saw my case and the lack of responses to that case. Then when he was outed, Conq was resistant to voting him. And for the record I still think that Conq being Wiz's Aes Sedai and teamed with Vorros could mean that the slip I noticed was valid. The Forsaken, then, would probably be Devo (just like I said in my Conq worlds post, where in the case of e!Conq I said the team would be Conq/Vorros/Devo) and everything would work out. Conq himself said that a blademaster/warder/forsaken makes sense as a team to him. That'd also explain why he unvoted Devo and voted me, all of a sudden. That makes a lot of sense, actually. @Sart what does your mech analysis think about a team where Devo is the Forsaken and Conq is an elim Aes Sedai who was bonded to Wiz?

It'd be irresponsible of me to not consider the possibilities. I'm not just going to vote you and disappear. Can you elaborate on us being 'pretty well teamed'? I don't think we've done much of anything together except independently coming to the same conclusion here, and if you randomly start suspecting us now that's kind of weird. Why else would I have a PM with Shining in which they so readily shared their scan results with me? My action failed but I was not specifically told that it'd been roleblocked. TUN never confirmed that, I think that's up to three questions I've asked that have gone unanswered :P. Still waiting on the double confirmation that a Forsaken can't bond a Warder. But you yourself pointed out that there's other ways for my action to have failed. And I'm willing to do riskier plays when I need to. I... never said anything about a specific cycle number xD it was Night Two anyway. But there wasn't a reason for e!me to risk anything by claiming something that wasn't true at this stage. I was universally village read, as far as I'm aware, and if I'm evil you're not and I'd be pretty confident I could get you killed. That's obviously not what's happening but it's an illustration of why I'm not pulling a gambit here. It's the same thing with the Vorros scan result. Again, do you have any reasons beyond waving your hand and saying we're elim? This came out of nowhere, right now, without any prior indication of this suspicion. You're not considering how hard I pushed Vorros (which, yes, you could argue that I needed to because Shining knew I knew but there was noooo reason to make such a huge case instead of just posting the results and tbh I probably could have convinced Shining that the results didn't need to be posted at all. And besides, you cannot honestly look at my interactions with Vorros in thread and say they're e/e :P). Certainly. I'll type that post right now and double if no one else does before I'm done. And Devo posts right as I'm typing this, I was seconds too slow. I think it deserves its own post, for organizational reasons. And because this one should get out there. Edit: I was basically done with this, then accidentally reloaded the page and it's all gone now so hold on a bit longer >>

What about the Forsaken?

Sart only has a point if there's a Forsaken which I'm not really certain of, all the manip can be explained by other means. For all we know Araris is the Amyrlin, and frankly right now I'm more interested in voting by reads rather than mech assumptions. And I know Vorros' D1 makes Conq look really bad. I think it's interesting Sart's voting someone he says could not have submitted a kill-- @Sart, where do you think the third elim is, then? Who submitted the kill? Also not that I don't believe you since that'd be just about the easiest lie to uncover on the planet but @The Unknown Novel can the Forsaken be bonded to a Warder? Trying to remember if there were any circumstances around Conq's claim that would allow for it to be fake, and I don't really think so. Only if his teammate was Wiz's Aes Sedai, and that obviously wouldn't be Sart since he's allegedly bonded to Luckspren (whom I'd like to confirm that, regardless of the fact that again there's basically no way that's just a lie). I suppose xino, but only if xino's just in bus mode for some reason. Actually, if we're talking about the Amyrlin-- Conq could be an elim Amyrlin, instead of the Forsaken, I think. Though that'd be a two person team balance-wise I think. EDIT: Ok, say we misexe Conq, the ratio worse-case would be 4-2 afterwards which assuming one kill at night would lead to a 3-2 day which is fine. We do have breathing room. I feel like there's a possibility I'm being duped by an Araris/Devo team and I want to look to see the logistics behind that before just getting swept from here :P. Honestly have no clue if that could/does make any sense at all but I am paranoid. So there's that.

Why are you assuming there aren’t unbonded Aes Sedai, Sart? I guess you probably don’t have an answer to that. Sart voting Devo definitely implies he’s teamed with Conq, yeah. And we should have room to reconsider if Conq does flip green. I’ll look at that later.

Ah right. I’d missed that one. Yes, that’s probably what happened. Why did you roleblock me? Or try to?

Bruh At least I didn't die-- I was Shining's Warder and I definitely was set to be protecting him last night. I wasn't told that I was specifically roleblocked but I'm figuring that out now. I applaud the elims for going for that kill, though, it was gutsy. Shouldn't have worked >> Sorry Shining. An interesting theory I've heard is that there are only two elims, with the team being Blademaster/Forsaken and the Forsaken potentially being bonded to a Warder. I think that checks out balance wise. Assuming I was blocked (don't see how anything else could have happened) and assuming no villager blocked me (that really should not have happened xD) I think this is still possible-- the remaining elim could use Earthquake with a 100% success rate (Forsaken) or just win it by chance, and then also submit the kill on Shining. Or one elim RBs, the other kills. Either way, Conquestor should die today. I'll spend most of my time looking at a potential third teammate, I've read enough on Conq to safely say there's almost nothing that can be done to make me change this vote. I've said it before and I'll say it again-- him and Vorros on D1 were textbook e/e.

Imagine if a mod posted here and then immediately locked the thread That’d be like, the ultimate power move