Chiberty

Do you have any objections to the harder points of evidence that we have on Navani and Venli that support a Group 1 placement? It is, of course, fine for you to believe that they can't be in a group together, but arguments about what the narrative should and shouldn't do generally don't lead to any sort of conclusion. Even if you are absolutely certain about something the narrative should do, I guarantee that you won't be able to convince many people of it unless you reference something more concrete. If your objection is having all three of Navani, Venli, and Kaladin in the same group, the most likely way for that to be reconciled is by the group not including Kaladin. If your objection is just to having Navani and Venli in the same group, that can not easily be reconciled to fit the WoBs that we have, as Navani and Venli are the ones whose group placement we know the most about.

People tend to put way too much focus on this chart. Really, we should look at the orders themselves, instead of the chart they've been put on. "Some." For some orders, is pretty clear if their oaths are more Honor or Cultivation. Windrunners, Skybreakers, and Stonewards are very much Honor, and Edgedancers, Truthwatchers, and Lightweavers are very much Cultivation. Willshapers' focus on things like discovery makes them seem more Cultivation-like. Elsecallers' focus on logical consistency makes them seem more Honor-like. For Bondsmiths and Dustbringers, it's not really clear. Even if you don't get a clean division of the chart, that's okay, since Brandon has made it clear that it's just an in-world chart with some--but limited--relevance.

Group 1 has 5 characters, and Group 2 has 2, but can I take this to mean that you are of the opinion that Renarin was the character that switched from Group 2 to 1 between the 3rd and 5th Reddit updates? Edit: What about Szeth?

That is correct. Technically, none of these are locked in completely. Navani is the most locked in. After her are Dalinar and Venli. The others all kind of depend on each other, so they can't really be ordered in terms of certainty. The idea of this is not to determine what the only possible solution is; the point of this is to determine which possibilities are the best fit to all of the information we've been given. Until we get more concrete, finalized information, the best we can do is to make reasonable assumptions on each piece of info. Even though we can't determine anything for certain, making use of all of our information will get us much more likely possibilities. I added a transcription of that question into the spoiler at the bottom of the original post. This is entirely possible, and I would not be surprised if it was the case. The only reason I narrowed it down from there is because a fairly basic assumption was able to do so, that of Group 2 characters having a moderate amount of viewpoints. As said above, there are only three characters that we can really be very confident about with our current information. Making these types of assumptions, however, simplifies things greatly, while not reducing the likelihood very much. You don't have to agree with that assumption, but it is a relatively easy one to resolve. If someone were to ask Brandon if he meant that the Group 2 characters have a moderate number of viewpoints, he would be pretty likely to answer it, as it is taking the form of a clarification question. Of course, it is not desirable to interrupt Brandon from his writing, but he does have things like his recent Q&A livestreams, so it would be good if someone asked something like that at one of those times. It doesn't have any direct spoilers, and it seems to be mainly clarification, but it has the potential to give us a large chunk of information. I would do that, but each one of those bullet points would need a handful of those references because most of them rely on each other, so I tried to put each the explanations just before it, hoping that the connections would be clearer that way. I'm afraid that doing that might just make it even more cluttered. Having only those few candidates in Group 2 is one of those things that is based on the assumption that the Group 2 characters will get a moderate number of viewpoints. Since the characters other than the eight listed here[27] won't be given more than a handful of viewpoints, so Character1 and 2 can't be in anything other than minor PoVs. Szeth and Jasnah also need to be in minor ones, and Navani, Dalinar, and Venli are the ones that we are the most certain about, with Navani and Venli in Group 1, and Dalinar in Group 3. I can explain those three in greater depth if needed, but they are the few that should be more clear in the original post, as they don't really depend on the others. So yes, we can't determine much at all without making assumptions, but the key is to make assumptions that narrow down the possibilities more than they decrease the likelihood.

The discussion of whether or not Shallan is pregnant doesn't really have an effect on her group placement, but it could be relevant when considering that a character was changed from Group 2 to Group 1. I assume that it's one of the minor 2 Group 1 PoVs, and have put forward my arguments for multiple candidates earlier in this thread. Which character do you think it was?

You are right that it is very difficult to split up. This response is about as split-up as it can get, which is a lot, comparatively, but also still pretty big. Actually, Group 2 is the group that Jasnah can't really be in. Brandon said in response to a not-yet-transcribed livestream that there are a "couple of Jasnah viewpoints" in RoW. [9] This does not match up with his description of Group 2 as following two characters and being "very involved." [1] She would have to be one of the lesser viewpoints--either in Group 3 or a minor PoV in Group 1. I'm a little bit confused about your stance on Venli's placement. Specifically, why does Venli's need to learn about the Radiants mean that she can't be in Group 1? There's nothing stopping that group from showing two sides of the war at one location. Besides that, we know that Venli will get a lot of viewpoints, [18] and we know that a reading from her PoV was given when only Group 1 had for sure been written. [14] @agrabes You are right that we don't know with complete certainty that Adolin will be a PoV character. However, there is some good supporting evidence. The WoB that you pointed out is one, [19] and there is an OB update that listed him as one of the eight major-ish characters in SA Arc 1. [27] For reasons that I pointed out above, Jasnah is extremely unlikely to be I Group 2. You are correct that one of Adolins possible placements is as a minor PoV in Group 1, but the only Group 2 candidates are Shallan, Adolin, Kaladin, and with small arguments for Venli (who is much more likely to be in Group 1 for reasons I pointed out above). Since you agree with the general consensus that Kaladin is probably in Group 1, he can't be in Group 2. In regards to Venli, her chance of being in Group 2 is very small. When asked who the focus character was in January, Brandon hesitantly said "Venli," likely trying to not give away the information he later did on the Dusty Wheel. [18] Her being one of the "focus" characters fits in much better with Group 1's description as the core arc of the book. [1] That only leaves Shallan and Adolin as candidates for Group 2, and since it needs two characters, it must be them. The numbers in brackets correspond to the WoBs in the spoiler at the bottom of my original post.

I could make it do this, but there are certain things that would make it strange; it is possible to get a negative score on an Order. When I take the quiz, I get about 98% certainty for Skybreaker, but only about 46% of the points I get are Skybreaker points. Negative 13% are Lightweaver points. Even if you are a very Willshaper-oriented person, chances are that less than 50% of your points are what I assigned to Willshapers. In your case, scoring a 90% certainty for Willshaper doesn't mean that you chose 90% Willshaper answers; it means that if I saw 10 people that gave your answer choices, I'd expect 9 of them to be Willshaper-type people. It's similar, but it was a way that I was trying to make the way I assigned points to certain answers have less effect on the guess. It makes it so that even if I have a faulty view on the Order you'd be a part of, the quiz is still likely to guess that Order, as long as I have an accurate view on most of the Orders. (Although it has been pointed out above that Edgedancer in particular is more likely to be guessed) In summary, it wouldn't be difficult to do, but it would not be what you expect. If you want, type "kr" after you take the quiz, and you'll see what I'm talking about.

Did you read the whole post at the beginning? I'm not criticizing you if you didn't, it's pretty long, but it would definitely make the discussion easier if you did, as many of the arguments I'll make are already contained in it. If you already have read it, responding more directly to the arguments I put forward in it would be helpful. For example, if you disagree with the assumption that Kaladin is in Group 1, that would interfere with Shallan's or Adolin's placement. If I don't know which arguments you disagree with, it gets difficult for me to respond in an effective way.

This doesn't discount what you're saying, but take a look at the UK cover: It appears to depict Shallan wielding Pattern, standing on a mountain. Of course, this guess could be wrong, and the covers aren't necessarily canonical, but she does not appear to be pregnant. Adolin's and Shallan's location shouldn't affect which group they are in, but since we know that each group will be in a different place, it may be relevant when considering who the remaining characters in the other two groups are. @Lccaseiro58, @Subvisual Haze, I know my original post is long, but that WoB has been addressed. It actually doesn't affect the group placement very much; it only means that one of the main 3 characters in Group 1 should be a non-flashback character.

Yeah, I ran some analysis on the possible results, and the quiz does have a slight bias to choose Edgedancer. I was aware of this, and if it seems to be a recurring issue, I can apply a weight to each of the Orders in an attempt to counteract this, unless you have any suggestions of questions that help discern between Edgedancers and the others.

@urrutiap, you may be interested in this recent one of Brandon's lectures.

I've noticed that. It doesn't need to be done on a computer, but sometimes mobile will type something twice. @Djerf, if you have in suggestions (different questions, different answers, etc.), feel free to share, as it's not very hard for me to change the test. I set it up in a way where I can just add an extra answer or question without any hassle.

Don't worry about being critical; that's exactly what I want. The more critical people are of this, the more accurate it can end up being. I know that the WoBs aren't completely solid information. Judging the accuracy of the WoBs we have should help us. I had almost forgotten about this, but here's a WoB that was given after the book was finished, so it has a good chance of being accurate. It's possible that I have a faulty idea of Group 3, but "lightly touching" on what they are doing doesn't seem to line up with the above WoB's description of Venli's viewpoints. Correction on what I said a couple posts ago: I checked the dates on the Reddit updates, and he read the Venli PoV when he had all of Part 1 done, and had some of the rest of Group 2 done. That correction doesn't really affect either of our arguments, but I thought I should point it out.

https://repl.it/@ChickenLiberty/KRQuiz This is just my own attempt at making a quiz like this. Since it's just a python program, I can easily edit it if new books change our understanding of the Orders. If you don't think you're result is accurate, tell me, and I'll alter the quiz if it appears certain Orders are consistently inaccurate. The "certainty" thing is somewhat arbitrary; I just fit the results to some curve that represents the other data to an extent. My descriptions of the orders aren't very good, but oh well.

There is not a 100% chance she is in Group 1, but she can't be in Group 3, as the reading Brandon gave from her viewpoint was from when he had only written some of Part 1, which doesn't include Group 3 PoVs. There's definitely a chance that she is in Group 2, but--and this part is more inductive reasoning--in the past, flashback characters have been in every Part, and thus their flashbacks have never occurred without a present-day PoV. Group 2 is definitely possible, but Group 1 is more likely.

I don't want to get involved in this discussion, but I thought I'd just throw this WoB out to those who are.

I agree here. I think that them all starting out together probably doesn't include Venli, and Kaladin being there in chapter 1 doesn't mean much because he can fly. Regardless, I don't think their starting location will be that relevant, since they're just going to be split up for most of the book. @Oltux72, do you have any thoughts on which character was moved from Group 2 to Group 1?

Here's my reasoning for each candidate: Jasnah: Likely for reasons you said earlier Renarin: Likely for reasons you said earlier Herdazian general: Possible. We don't really know anything about him, so he can't exactly be ruled out here Lirin: Unlikely because he fits in way too well with Kaladin Moash: Unlikely because he fits in way too well with Kaladin and Venli, or he's probably separate from the other characters Teft: Unlikely because he fits in really well with Kaladin as part of Bridge 4, or as the person flying Dalinar Rlain: Unlikely for the same reasons as Moash Rock: Unlikely because Brandon said his narrative didn't fit in RoW Ash/Taln: Unlikely because Brandon wants to save Herald stuff for the back 5 Taravangian: Unlikely because he's really old and should just stay in one place Vasher: Unlikely because Brandon doesn't want to write Nightblood until after SA5 Szeth: Unlikely because he fits in well with Dalinar, or he would be most useful in the war in the same areas that Kaladin is useful (except healing of course) This would make it: Szeth and 1 of (Renarin, Heradzian general) Or Jasnah and 1 of (Szeth, Character1, Charcter2) Does my reasoning here work, or is there something I missed about someone that makes them not as unlikely?

I see why I was confused now. I saw 'uas',' and I didn't realize there is no 'w.'

What does the top picture say?

As far as I can tell, it's more in the Seons and Skaze, since the Seons serve those they love, and the skaze are power-hungry. They fit, but it's hard to tell for the rest of the magics because we don't actually know what determines who becomes an Elantrian.

It didn't require email verification, so if you just put some long, weird email name that nobody would have, you can vote. Just make sure you don't select to receive email notifications if you do that.

There's more evidence than just that. Yes, the fact that she is referred to as his favorite to write, and the main character was also referred to as his favorite to write is significant, but if that was all we had, it wouldn't be a stretch to say that his preference just changed. However, this was in late November, and look at this portion of the Reddit update from early November: That only leaves Group 1 or a lesser interlude that he could have been writing in late November. The fact that he says he's been enjoying writing Navani indicates that she had more than just a single viewpoint that he was writing around that time, which means that she should be one of the 3 major PoVs in Group 1, and these 3 PoV characters are the ones that Brandon said RoW would mostly be about. The only way that leaves for her to not be the main character is if it is one of the other two viewpoints in that group. Most people tend to agree that Kaladin is one of these 3, and there is a good amount of evidence that Venli is also one of those, as I explain in another thread: If all of that isn't enough, Navani was also originally planned to be the book 4 flashback character, which is a weaker piece of evidence, but still supports this conclusion.

Yeah, I definitely get what you're saying about how it would need to have not fit perfectly. I looked back at that update, and I noticed this: It seems to me that this viewpoint that was moved is probably one of these viewpoints that he wanted to explore to finish up the outline. So maybe, this viewpoint made complete sense to him in his head, but he had an idea for a different way to do it, and only after writing it was he able to know for sure. What we may need to look for is a PoV that looks great in that spot from a character perspective, but whose narrative in the book would be better told from in Group 1. It could be similar to how Brandon originally intended Jasnah to stay with Shallan in WoR because that made sense considering their relationship to each other, but then decided that Shallan would experience more growth throughout the book if she had to go without Jasnah.