Elandera
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If I were to choose between a lynch and no lynch, I always opt for the former, no matter which alignment I have. No lynch means very, very little can be learned. It means we're delaying the inevitable by a whole turn, basically leaving one turn as a free-kill for the elims. Even if the chance is low, there is at least a chance of hitting an elim if we have a lynch, compared to a 0% chance with no lynch. How would no lynch benefit anyone?
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That's fair. CadCom. I do not, however, agree with this. Yes, our D1 lynch has a high probability of hitting a villager, but if we ignore the lynch today, that's just likely going to be the case tomorrow. At least with a lynch, we get a starting point. Stick, because they've posted enough it might give us more info. Plus they were the first to suggest no lynch today.
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That was not my intention, though it was my initial reaction. The whole latter half of the paragraph you quoted is why he might still be elim. My clearance of Stick is temporary, and may change after looking closer at past turns. It's mostly based on my trust of Fura. EDIT: Something I hadn't considered until I read the write-up is a possible roleblock. If we have a Soother 2 out there, and you targeted someone, that might be a good clue as to our Zane.
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Oh, a few things I forgot. If someone protected HH, please contact me. At this point, I'm trying to narrow down roles so we can narrow down possible elims/Mistborn based on that. Here is the list of players I have yet to learn their roles. While I don't want any public roleclaims, it's just how I need to start my list for finding Mistborn (preferably Zane, based on number of lives). Snipexe Devotary Ark Rath Stick Straw Adavantos Coop Of those, the least likely to be Zane would probably be Snipexe, Ada, and Ark simply based on activity levels. They may still be Vin, though. I will also remove Stick, based on the interactions with Fura (though I'd caution against complete trust if the role in question is a Seeker 1). So that narrows it down to: Devotary Rath Straw Coop I need to look more closely at the attempted Rath lynches, but I'm not outright opposed to one this turn yet. If that seems to be where things are moving, I'll be willing to place my vote there. As for Coop, I'd probably place him in the elim category rather than Mistborn, based on his interactions with Steel. Mostly, I'm concerned at how much both Devotary and Straw have flown under the radar this game. I don't like it at all. Both are too good to have stayed out of pretty much everyone's analysis posts. Devotary
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We've got less than 12 hours left. Time to ping people who've yet to arrive. @Snipexe, @xinoehp512, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Cadmium Compounder, @StrikerEZ, @Walin (For some reason I can't find Ark. Anyone know his current username?) I have found little information thus far in the mostly RP posts, so here goes a random vote. And the die came up CadCom.
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Alright, I'm doing some role analysis now to see if I can narrow some things down regarding which roles we should find suspicious. It's hard to see the bolded Xs on this, but I have my own and Lum's roles bolded, since we've been able to confirm them. The Xs I have are how I think roles might be distributed. Obviously, there are more roles than people left, so it's not 100% accurate. Not that it would be anyway, since this is just my guess as to how things might be distributed. Anyway, I suspect the elim roles are more focused on vote manipulation and solidification, due to their win-con. It is possible, however, they have a Tineye 2 role and that's how they discovered CadCom. We should probably look at whose votes have been left on him in previous cycles. I also don't believe we'll have any more than 3 of one role distributed between the factions. This also means while HH is not fully cleared of being possible elim, I am more inclined to lean village on him. That also depends on the size of the elim team, because Thug 2 is still a possibility, and the Mistborn are looking to kill the elims. They could have targeted him based on his interactions with Steel, with the assumption they may be teammates. Also, if we have a Seeker 1 still out there, please contact me or someone you really trust. We need to get the information from your scans out into the world. EDIT: Oh, I forgot to remove the second X for a village Seeker 2. I believe the Librarian would have been the only one with that role for village.
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Bad Wolf Brenna couldn't stop her knee from bouncing as she sat. She wasn't sure if it was from nerves or excitement. Or both. All she knew is that she wanted to be in a ship already, flying into the expanse above Detritus. People talked around her, mentioning the apparent problems inside the DDF. So many problems on top of the constant Krell attacks. Bad Wolf would bring them all to an end. Picturing herself shooting them from the sky, she began muttering to herself. "You are tiny. I can see the whole of time and space. Every single atom of your existence, and I divide them. Everything must come to dust."
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It's probable that those who pushed hardest for the CadCom lynch might be highest on the elim/Mistborn suspect list. Especially depending on when CadCom claimed. I'll try to take some time tonight or tomorrow to look into that. However, with the assassin dead, I do believe we should start looking closer at possible Zane candidates. If we have to lynch him twice, we need to start now.
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@Steeldancer, it has been wonderful playing alongside you over the year or so I've been part of this community. I am sorry we had to lynch you so early in your final game before your mission, but I do feel a bit vindicated, you being a Lekal after all. Just a few thoughts for you before you go. I feel much the same as Fifth. You were one of the first people to really make an impression as I started getting into this community. We were teammates during LG45, the House War. It was my first LG, and you did a lot to help me as we worked our way into helping House Elariel dominate (also dealing with my neurotic doc rants along the way). That game helped shape me as a player and sparked my obsession with this forum. Thank you for all of that. You're one of the players I most enjoy playing with, despite me trying to lynch you. Good luck on your mission. I'm sure you'll do great! --- On to the rest of things. I'd like to take a closer look at Coop. While it's possible he was set up, that's just a lot of coincidence.
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As promised, I'm going to attempt to prove my role. I have put in an order to Riot Ark's vote onto Steel.
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Fura, you only missed one. Here's the current vote count. Straw (1) - Rath Rath (1) - HH Steel (6) - Ela, Stick, Straw, Maill, CadCom, Fura Fura (1) - Lum Stick (1) - Steel It seems we do have a pretty solid lynch at this point on Steel, so long as no one else removes the vote.
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I'll be gone for the first half of this turn, since I'll (hopefully) be sleeping. Nightshift problems. Anyway, I figured it would be good to get a vote count on the board to make sure we know where we're going as we start getting into discussions. Straw (1) - Rath Rath (1) - HH Steel (6) - Ela, Coop, Stick, Lum, Straw, Maill, Steel Coop (1) - CadCom @Lumgol, if the lynch on Steel doesn't change, I'd suggest moving your vote to someone to get a scan result. As much as having a solid lynch lead is good, your scan is more useful when the person lives.
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I'm not sure, actually. I haven't done any in-depth analysis of the roles and possible distributions. I'll try to get around to that sometime tomorrow, if I can't tonight. Definitely. I'll post in thread close to the end of cycle who I'm moving and who the new target is. I don't want to say too early in case some Smoker tries to interfere.
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Sorry if that was confusing. I'm saying Coop was Smoked and Lum was Soothed. With the knowledge Coop was Smoked, I believe Lum was Soothed to prevent an alignment read on Coop, rather than an alignment read on Mailliw. With the information Steel was the one to Smoke Coop, it means either that they are a team, or that someone is trying to frame Coop. Either way, it suggests Steel has an anti-village alignment of some kind. (Ninja'd by Steel) Regarding your argument that the CadCom lynch was dominating: That was the vote count just two posts before your "I won't be back on" post. I'd hardly say the CadCom lynch was dominating, since the last vote was on Coop to make everything a tie. Anyone on that list was well within range. And now that I look at it, Coop hadn't even voted yet. He didn't vote for another hour and a half after your last post. Additionally, I'm not set on you both being Mistborn. I also think it's likely you could be an elim. But your argument so far has done nothing but really solidify in my mind that you're suspect. Again. Someone who hadn't even voted when you were supposedly last online. Also, my suspicions I listed to you were Coop, Mailliw, and yourself. Xino hadn't even crossed my radar yet this game. EDIT: Also, I had specifically told you I wasn't going to list any elim suspects, since I suspected you of being Mistborn at the time.
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Alright, time for an information dump of sorts. My top suspects right now are Coop and Steel, and I'm leaning toward them being Mistborn, though it's possible they're elims. You see, I'm a Rioter 1. Before the Rae lynch was solidified, I attempted to Riot Coop's vote from CadCom to Rae. I never felt the need to change the order, as manipulation became irrelevant. As everyone pointed out, the only change in the vote count was Lum's vote being apparently Soothed. Additionally, I was notified that my attempt to Riot the vote failed due to Coop's vote being Smoked. Additionally, this makes me suspect the Soothing on Lum was more a result of her vote on Coop than her vote on Mailliw. With some nighttime PMs, I was able to obtain information that Steel was the one who likely Smoked Coop. This throws up a lot of red flags for me, especially since Xino flipped as a Smoker 1. While it's possible there are multiple roles among the village, I can also see this role as having one each side along with the random chance Vin can draw it. Having more than 3 people any given turn that can smoke is a bit OP. Thus, I'm going to start with Steel. There's the possibility he was attempting to frame Coop, which is why I'm more willing to lynch Steel at this point. I see him having a higher chance at being Mistborn/elim.
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The suggestion is largely based in the fact that we would learn a lot about you and Maill if either of you are lynched. If we pick wrong, and lynch a villager, we can assume the other is elim/Mistborn. There really is no other reason for Lum's vote to have been soothed off either you or Maill if neither of you have a suspicious role. I'm not advocating for the lynch of either one over the other at this point, just pointing out a logical course of action next turn. I don't really worry about voicing my concern regarding this, since I find the soothing likely to have come from Zane. I'm concerned about this sentiment. It seems you're suggesting (in an exaggerated way, yes) that you are the only one who should be hunting the Mistborn. As you've pointed out yourself, a focus on lynching too many elims early would actually be detrimental to the village. So yes, I took a chance and went with the possible Mistborn lynch. I didn't have any other suspects for elim or Mistborn at the time and didn't agree with the arguments against the other main lynch candidates. I was more than willing to switch my vote off Rae if we had been able to decide on a target in that last hour, but none of the possibilities presented had any more validity than the Rae lynch, and no one actually cast a vote. (I was also grocery shopping in that last hour, so my attention and ability to contribute meaningfully to the discussion was minimal at best.) As I stated, I didn't agree with the reasoning for lynching either of you (a mist voice claim to Lum, and an argument based on your lower activity level). You're right, though. My vote on Rae was mostly because at the time she was the only one who might be able to contend with the main lynches, and despite the faulty reasoning, I figured a possible Mistborn would be a better target. EDIT: I bolded this to hopefully draw attention in case people have already read this. I realized something big. What if neither Coop or Maill are elim/Mistborn, but Lum was targetted just in case she ended up voting on someone who was evil? EDIT 2: Oh wait. I realized that it was the Soother 1 ability at work here. As you were.
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@Rathmaskal I definitely understand the concern here. The activity level I've shown this game is definitely not in line with my usual play style. I attribute it somewhat to still recovering from a very bad illness and general business with work and life. In less than a month, I'm helping host a writer's retreat and have had to put together several extra presentations since one of our people just dropped out. It's made my life a bit more hectic. Also, I'm trying to play a little bit more reserved this game with voicing suspicion. At least until we find the Mistborn. That means I'll be making fewer posts with slightly more guarded content. Regarding Lum's apparent soothing, I think our best bet would be to lynch either Coop or Maill next turn to see how they flip. We can drastically narrow down a suspect pool of cohorts depending on who flips which way. If it's Coop and he's elim/Mistborn, then his companion was likely not among the several people on in the last hours. If it's Maill who's elim/Mistborn, it would likely be the opposite.
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Anyone have an updated vote count? I can't compile one since I'm grocery shopping.
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So, logistically, Rath would be the option since they already have a vote on them. However, I don't see any more reason for a Rath lynch than a Rae lynch.
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I might be willing to change. What's the reasoning for Rath or HH?
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Why exactly are so many trusting Lum's word of what the voice in the mist claimed? I don't quite get it. While Coop may be evil in some way, there's really no valid argument against him. Here's the scenarios of what I think we might learn from a Coop lynch: Village flip: Lum was lying (hard to verify) Voice made a bad guess, since they're not likely omniscient Voice was just making a ploy to see what would happen if Lum and Coop were set against each other Elim flip: Voice made a good guess (again, not likely omniscient, otherwise it could easily break the game) Either way, trusting the voice outright seems like a bad idea. Taking their claims and investigating might be good, especially if they have a connection to the dead, but trusting it outright seems like a recipe for disaster. It's part of why I think letting Lum leave her vote there to at least gain a role would be beneficial. Regarding the lynch against CadCom, it's good to see him a bit more active. That seems to be the basis for a lot of the suspicion against him, so I have a difficult time just joining in on that bandwagon. I'm most curious about the possibility of Steel's claims that Rae might be one of the Mistborn. Maill (1) - STINK Rae (3) - Steel, CadCom, Ela Coop (3) - Lum, Rath, Straw CadCom (4) - Maill, Fura, Coop, HH Rath (1) - Stick
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I was one of those, but that's not really a secret. There is, after all, a reason I voted on him last cycle. It turned out to be faulty, but such is usually the way with D1 suspicions. Concerning why Bard was killed, it probably has to do with how many people were suspicious of him. The Mistborn are out to kill the elims, and for a D1 kill, he was probably the best suspect they had to go on. It's probably more likely that the Mistborn who killed him was among those who didn't express outright suspicion as to not draw too much attention to themselves.
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I find this part of the write up most interesting. @Mailliw73, what say you? I believe this is probably correct. If so, @A Joe in the BushBushBushBushBushBBBushBushBushBushBushB (Joe, I believe you've infected my phone... I can't delete any of that...) is there anything the dead want us to know about how they died?
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I wouldn't say I was a fan of the claim. I actually stated I disagree with her tendency to play so open about claims. My support (if it can be called that) of Lum was more stating that the claim was in line with her play style. I disagreed that lynching her over the claim was a good idea, so I responded with my own vote. Anyway, can't post more. Time for dinner.
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Alright, time for me to actually do something... sort of. I've been lurking for most of the day, but haven't had time to catch up on what happened during the previous 48 hours. To start, Bard. (I'll explain in just a moment) Current vote count: Araris (5) - HH, Ark, Steel, Straw, Fura Bard (3) - CadCom, Rae, Elandera Lumgol (2) - Bard, Araris Rae (1) - Rand Joe (2) Lumgol, Mailliw CadCom (1) - Ada Most of the discussion seems to be centered around Araris at the moment. I don't really see the lynch against him. It seems to be simply because he's being a bit stubborn. I personally don't see that he's actively tried to shut down discussion. Some of it also hinges on his stated reason for voting on Ark, but he's since changed his vote. I'm more concerned about Bard, for wanting to vote on Lum simply for a roleclaim. That particular role would be highly valuable to keep around, and fairly easy to verify. It does put Lum as a high target for both the Mistborn and elims, but it shouldn't mean she's a target for a lynch. As for why she claimed, though I disagree, Lum is traditionally very open about her role and abilities.
