Pearl Chameleon

Why move on me though? I have no extra life and no way to survive the exe. So if I was set up as an alternative and I went through instead of Lion, I would have flipped. So why did so many of the spiked stay on me? How are they useless? True that night actions did give us the candidates but I think there was a certain point in which permission was given, at least for Croc. I haven't and I won't. But what if I believe you. What if Swan is spiked and has been kayana and mostly only shooting his own teammates. We vote him off, and if he isn't evil. We lose our only chance to shoot the spiked at night. And why would a spiked waste SIX whole cycles shooting only their teammates and failing? Why?

How does the village find three spiked on D3, wouldn't the spiked provide another candidate? Because with five of them alive, they really should have been able to persuade a few to jump on someone else. Killing me by Coinshot will work, there's literally no way I can survive. Going to vote Elephant, can only be me, Falcon or Elephant. Because two coinshots and the elim kill was submitted. That's barring two elims are left. Falcon looks better than Elephant from my reread. Falcon seems engaged in the game, while Elephant is mostly gathering and putting data in the thread. Which is something he does regardless of allignment. But it has only been for D1,D2,D3. Nothing later. They shot Scorpion, no way Scorpion didn't self protect as they should have been able to, because they would have just protected Lion. So E!Swan makes very little sense. As why would they shoot another teammate who didn't protect? It just makes absolutely no sense at all to me.

I have proof! Let me pull it up. Rollover is 8 PM for me. I couldn't remember who it was yesterday. XD True he did do it in a recent MR. It has been tickling at me and I've been warry of it but mostly still trusting him. "I VOLUNTEER MYSELF AS TRIBUTE AND BY THAT I MEAN BE SHOT BY COINS! CAUSE I'M DRUNK ON HORNEATER WHITE!" "Oh and while being a Kandra does give one form powers, it does not give one allomantic powers." Edit: There goes the proof sherlock!

Guess that soft clears Ostrich? Since they still haven't been on since Sunday and so couldn't have put in the kill. The only hard clears that I accept are scans. And those I still question. Going to reread at least twice before throwing down a vote. I wonder if the elims are more likely in the pool of the three people who didn't vote the last day. As now we know that both of the trains were villagers. New vote count analysis would be good as well. That could explain quite a bit. He's been a lot more lax with the vote count analysis than he was before. Still going to reread at least once before I vote.

Why did people switch to Albatross? I was gone the later half of the day finishing a campaign of imperial assualt. Managed to win all the missions too, even though Darth Vader nearly killed me, actually only half killed me. But being wounded is similar to being nearly dead. :eyes: I will second the nomination to shoot Dragonfly, because I still think it's inactive teammate instead of protecting another teammate, because we know the mistborn didn't roll coinshot, because there would have been another kill. Which I think would be the only time a mistborn would merit protection over a lurcher. Even then protection of the lurcher should have been a priority for the elim team I think. Since it was the case with Swan, why not Scorpion? Because putting in a kill instead of delaying their own death was what they decided would be a better shot for them to take. Because no elim kill but a protect on Scorpion would have meant Scorpion died the next day. Since it would have been coinshot over Spiked. Thus most likely leading to their lynch and PMs would have still been up. Instead they sent a kill, died but sent PMs crashing down. I will also add that I as well recieved a clue from Hyena. Edit: Don't have time for heavy analysis, so I just grabbed the reads posted by Dragonfly D2 In everyone else that would include Lion, Scorpion, Kangaroo, and Rhino. All the elims that have flipped have been in Null or higher. D4 Now all elims are in Null or lower. This was the cycle that Croc was revealed by Mouse through the PM chain. They jump on the Croc bandwagon but this is after Croc has his second to last post (I think). N4 Didn't go Rhino, went after Flamingo(?) I don't remember but I do remember that there wasn't really a Rhino train. Nevermind ignore that! I forgot that that was during the night turn. They did go after Flamingo the next day, though this was after when Rhino started ramping up in the thread. All elims are in Null or lower. Dragonfly flips from all their teammates from being good to being evil. Was that reflecting other people at the time? I haven't have much time to reread lately and I don't quite remember what everyone else was thinking. I remember mostly of what I was thinking, but not anyone else too much.

A kill went through o: I am stunned. Don't have too much time right now but the lack of protect does seem to indicate a less active teammate. Scorp could have protected their teammate especially if they had a power role. But then the teammate would have had to submit the kill and thus have not used their action. Only a few roles or a mistborn that rolled something that doesn't require a night action. Like thug, Soother, rioter. Obviously not tineye since PMs are down. So I think it's most likely that an inactive teammate ended up forcing Scorp to put in the kill. Could be E!Mistborn or other evil role that didn't require a action. But really only a E!Mistborn would merit protection over Scorp. And Scorp could take priority since they were a lurcher. So most likely inactive teammate like Dragonfly makes the most sense to me. Edit: I do realize that Ostrich could fit this. But I have a stronger Village read of them than Dragonfly.

Croc said this about Albatross 1.0. This was in a reads post where everyone was sused to some degree. Croc And what I had quoted was the reads post in question that croc was referencing. Which was by Albatross 1.0 and also a response to Croc and if Albatross would send out PMs to everyone. The way it is worded makes me think it could be a slip. The post by Croc, whether it's about Croc being evil or Albatross, I can't quite tell.

Albatross's D1 reads which Croc was refering to or this post. I feel like that could possibly be a genuine slip. Something I'd look into more for certain. And I think the elim team has to have a second lurcher because the e!Mistborn would have had to roll Iron twice now. Once with Flamingo and a second time with Lion. So I'm thinking a more likely lurcher and a possible mistborn.

That helps quite a bit, now it should be easier to see when the elims decided to bus Crocodile and Flamingo.

I've gotten sick and so I didn't anything done in the way of analysis. I will try to put out Lion tomorrow and the D3 votes. Which is ambitious given that I'm sick. Well it will be a distraction at the very least.

Got it, Lion. You have survived twice, prepare to die! Going to look over Lion tomorrow, after sleep.

That's kind of why I was going after them less doggedly on D4, that and the second Flamingo survival. And then they've disappeared off my radar, which made me look into them again. I'll probably look into another person whose disappeared since I have more villagery reads of the more active players to varrying degrees. But I'm out of time for now. See you all during the next day and I too am quite excited. This game is starting to ramp up! Reminds me of what happens in the later turns of a favorite board game of mine which I won't mention to try and preserve my annonimity.

I've been looking at other suspects than Swan, because well that is going to happen and is quite out of my hands. And I've been looking at Dragonfly, because they've been flying low again. I do admit that it could be the same reasons as before for their lower activity, but still I looked at them and I found some interesting things. Note: I did include all null in the elim category because I'm sticking to the two categories. Dragonfly Village reads Elim reads Votes A few things stand out from this. - In their everyone post one elim, village and null. They didn't really change their reads except Weasel with Heron. Who they said they had been reconsidering, Weasel not Heron. - They later switched to Heron. Possible that they had planned this before. And if your village why do you switch to Heron? Because Weasel and Heron were in their reads as evil. They seemed to become more focused on Heron before Heron became a run away train. They had posted the elim, village, null post before Heron became a runaway. And then they switched to Heron after it became a runaway train. And I do admit that it very well could be that they did indeed revise their read of Weasel and decided to switch to Heron and get them executed because they E read them. - Generally didn't really promote or demote many people. Most stayed as they are, except Mouse who has been village read for pushing the Croc scan through to the thread. It just seems fishy to me. And do what you will with this data. It's here to be used.

I don't think it has since the last AG, the elim team in LG90 failed to recurse the town. The curse must be shattered beyond recognition, turn it the other way! Turn it back on the spiked!

Look at the beginning of D3, it's even greater proof

Finally! I suppose we would have never found Flamingo except the coinshot shooting them. Because that brought them into the light when they weren't really in it before. Thoughts on Flamingo Votes Village reads Elim reads Somethoughts, mostly data because brain is a bit done with being awake. - Never voted, Albatross, Heron, Scorpion, or Lion of their suspicions. - Only said they were fine with trains of me and Lion D3 Ack, brain too tired. Have your data while I find myself some horneater white. Very good for sleep dellusions that one is.

I'm surprised that no one has gone through the votes since Crocodile has flipped evil. I have only had time for D1 and don't expect to have time for the rest. So if someone else wants to pick it up, it would be greatly appreciated. Trying to get some talking though most have gone silent, I say this as I'm ninja'd by Toucan and Rhino. D1: Complete VC VC

Flip one person at a time, don't give the elims any chance at vote manip. So my vote is staying where it is. It's time we solved the mystery of three survivals in a row. Going to try to analyze Lion because they've seemed off to me since, D3. Probably won't get it done tonight too much other stuff I have to do IRL, like homework. Congradulations to the lucky couple!

That's how I roll. Glad to find that my suspicions weren't just unlikely, they quite likely. Could possibly look at Hyena at a later day, seems strange that they're defending Flamingo and it's tickling at my gut.

Was analyzing Croc for their reads and votes. Not much in the way of village reads. Thoughts will be in this lovely violet/lilac. Anything of Crocs of import I will bold. Nearly lost this post >> Croc Village reads/Defense Elim reads/Defense Voting suspicions

I'll vote for Flamingo, but I'd rather not shorten the day. Having more time is more useful to us than the elims, I'd think. Though I would probably go with the majority if shortening is possible. Once surviving shame on you. Twice survival shame on me. Thrice survival makes this a terrible Soren joke.

Good look for the mysterious seeker. Not much more to say. Have a paranoid thought about the crocodile exe, but going to keep it toned down. Extremely high tinfoil theory below. Mostly here to keep it out of my head. Please tear it to shreds.

I can get behind a Crocodile exeFlamingo Question this I will and look at Crocodile and Flamingo I will.

I got that you weren't 100% against voting and that you didn't want the discussion to die. And rereading your post, it does seem more genuine than when I first read it.

You seem very performative about not wanting to kill Flamingo, Albatross. Started at the top of the list moving down. Mouse Village reads/Defense of players connections Elim reads/Suspicions connections Voting connections Other Currently feeling good about mouse. Will get some more done later. Edit: Well that broke quite good after I posted it >>