Pearl Chameleon

"You can call me Nale. It's a pleasure to meet you, Brightlady." "And indeed. Walking around, I feel as though many people are wondering many things, tonight. I wonder..." Nale had been trying to find a way of discreetly prying into the gossip of the hall - especially anything about strange goings on, or strange-acting Spren, but at this point, a man joined the conversation. "Aesudan! I do hope you are enjoying yourself tonight. I thought these flowers looked almost as lovely as you, and couldn't resist bringing you some." Elhokar Kholin. Nale wondered idly whether he'd be able to extract any gossip from both of them here, but decided he'd be better off making the rounds, and hearing from a wider number of contacts. He did a double-take when he saw Ash, leaning against the wall. Why, of all nights, Ash, did you have to come here tonight. Almighty! He suspected, before the night was out, that things were about to get a lot more complicated.

"I am astounded by the occasion, Brightlady. I feel like we will see history in the making tonight." Nale took a sip of his wine, trying to behave normally. "These Parshendi, they are strange creatures, aren't they? I feel like I hardly understand them. Perhaps a Brightlady like yourself, especially a Kholin, might have some idea of who they are, or what they want?"

By the time Nale had wandered over to the other side of the room, the Inkspren had disappeared. A shame. Still, the night is young. For now, Nale turned towards the ballroom. All the hushed whispers, as people try to hoard their little secrets. How many criminals are in this room, I wonder? Too many, no doubt. Even one criminal is a parasite - a leech on society that razes the whole organisation to the ground. I'll find them all. Every single one of them. Especially the one who's bonded with an Inkspren. Nale turned back towards the crowd. He could play the role of gossip when he wanted to. He didn't like to, but it was a necessary evil - playing that role felt like deception, and deception felt like fraud. And Nale despised fraudsters. And what about you, Nale? Aren't you, in your own way, the greatest fraudster of all? Nale ignored the voice, and carried on his way. "How do you do? I don't believe I've caught your name?"

"Of course, your grace. Tensions run high on a night like this - I'm sure anyone would be a little nervous." (Jasnah Kholin) Nale moved away from the table, reluctantly accepting a glass of Yellow Wine, in an attempt to 'mingle' - causing a scene would be counter-productive at this stage. Slowly and deliberately, he made the rounds of the ballroom and feasting tables, taking care to avoid being dragged into a conversation wherever possible. Meanwhile, he kept his eyes peeled around him. It took him nearly an hour to spot it - a flicker in a shadowy corner of the room, so brief that he could almost have imagined it. Almost. Inkspren. Nale had been sure his information was good, but it was still a relief to see the trip wasn't a waste after all. Now, does your 'Herald' have any skeletons in their closet, Inkspren? Because if they do, I'll find them. Slowly, Nale began to weave back across the room, trying to act naturally, and with his eyes surreptitiously scanning the area where he'd seen the Inkspren.

Nale stood up near the royalties table, where he overheard Jasnah speaking. "Jasnah Kholin, we should not punish someone who has not yet committed a crime. That would be illegal. Your target seems to just be a simple servant, and it's unfair how you single him out." He saw a few nobles turn to him with surprise, wondering why a diplomat saw fit to interrupt their conversation. "I apologise. I merely felt it prudent to speak out." That was a mistake, Nale. Do not let it happen again. (Out of character, I don't think we should ostracize someone because we have knowledge of the books before the player has even had a chance to post - it's unfair to whichever unfortunate player got that role if they immediately get lynched over it. The moment I have evidence or even a suspicion in-game that their goals run counter to mine, then I'll try to lynch him.)

(Note: Any/All RP I write is purely for flavor, and may or may not coincide with my goals or win cons.) Nale hated uncertainty. Uncertainty led to panic. Panic led to mistakes. And mistakes were unforgivable. Especially on a night like tonight. For tonight, everything Nale had worked for, everything Nale had ever worked for, could come crashing down. For now, he perched on a windowsill, a hundred feet off the ground, watching the Alethi elite slowly drink themselves into a stupor, seemingly devoid of all embarrassment for their behavior. Still, distasteful as it was, it was not against the law, and so Nale did his best to ignore them. He watched, as one of the waiters pour some more wine to a stupefied guest, and, when they felt secure in not being observed, reached around to grab the guests sphere pouch. Nale grimaced, but didn't move. He focused in on the waiters face, until he was sure he would remember it, then returned to his observations. In a few days, once his current business was done, he would find them and deal with the waiter appropriately. Society was a finely tuned mechanism, like one of these new fabrials. Each person was like a small gear, making up a small part in the greater whole, bound together by law, structure, and order. But, it only takes a few gears, a tiny fragment of pieces, to stop performing their function before the whole mechanism collapses, as Nale knew all too well. When a piece stops functioning as it is intended, it must be replaced, as it is no longer worthwhile. Nale, in many ways, was in charge of clearing the mechanism of society. And when someone breaks from the law - breaks the delicate mechanism of society - then they must be disciplined. Slowly, Nale got up, and Lashed himself up towards the balcony above, where he could join the feast.

Kangaroo. I don't think there's much else to say at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if Kangaroo was the last elim. We must avenge the fallen villagers.

I'd like to apologize for being AWOL. I've been a bit of a mess recently and completely lost track of when the cycle was ending.

I... uh... Albatross? I honestly have no idea what's happening anymore.

Here's to hoping that Heron isn't an elim getting us all to vote on an Elsecaller. Elephant. Considering that the elims have vote manipulation, I don't think all villagers voting on Elephant would help even if they aren't an Elsecaller. But unless anyone has a better plan ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

@Ivory Dragonfly That would be me. I'm the village Elsecaller.

@Ivory Dragonfly With all due respect, your alignment hasn't been discussed much at all. The majority of players had a strong village read on you through out the game and that's still the case. Beagle may have been a villager but that doesn't mean that he was right about your identity nor does it mean that he wouldn't lie about your identity if you asked him to. I really don't think this is true. This is an anonymous game, and, for some, part of the fun is guessing who other players are and pretending to be someone else. It was explicitly mentioned that you're allowed to claim to be a player on day 1, so I'm not sure how lying about your identity would be bad sportsmanship. People can use playstyles different to what they have used in the past. I'm not understanding the second part of this sentence though. So this is fair and all, but you do realize that dishonest attempts to gain trust is basically what elims do, right? Which I believe you may be. That's fair. To be honest, my suspicion of you wasn't strong, it's just something that I can feel building slowly but surely. The village hasn't lynched a single elim so I'm suspicious that the elims have been driving the discussion, of which you have been at the forefront. The village has, more or less, decided that you're village, and the village doesn't have the best track record of recognizing elims or villagers. Mouse revealing his identity made me think a bit more about faking identities. I was reminded of a game I played where no one suspected me as an elim, and I think that partly had to do with my newness. From what I can remember, I somewhat let my posts sound like the posts of a newbie, which worked because I was new. It also lets you post any argument and others are less likely to judge your villageness from it. Some false arguments are elims trying to mislead the village. Some are villagers who've made a mistake, which becomes less likely with experience, I admit that some of these reasons aren't strong, but put together, they're giving me a bad gut read right now. I would say that you went from strong village to neutral for me. I'll see if I can do some analysis tomorrow. If there are 5/6 elims (though a small part of me hopes we've all estimated wrong), then we should have hit one by now just by probability. It might be worth looking at who's been influencing lynch discussion.

I'm surprised that no one has already pointed this put, but doesn't the removal of the vote on Mouse seem very obvious? If the elims took the vote off then they must have known we would suspect Mouse. This leaves a few possibilities. 1) They're framing Village!Mouse. 2) Elim!Mouse has a role that they highly value so they wanted to guarantee his survival for at least this night. 3) They want the village to waste an extra turn lynching Elim!Mouse instead of moving forward. This one is interesting, because there was no guarantee that Mouse would have died tonight. We had a tie. Regardless, I very much do not want to lynch Mouse the next day. Let's not have another round like the Weasel lynch. My stance is that we lynch someone who will give us information. I hate to sound like a broken record, but I really want to kill Toucan now more than before if only because that lynch hasn't taken off. And I really want to know if nefarious intent is behind that. I'm becoming more suspicious of Dragonfly. In my experience at least, it can be easy to look innocent as a new player. And then there is also the question of whether he really is a new player.

Don't be so hard on yourself. You haven't been lynching villagers single handedly, false suspicions happen, and at the end of the day, it's just a game.

So I'm super tired and very much not going to put in a lot of time into SE today. But let's see where we are. We haven't lynched a single elim yet, which is making me hesitate in trusting my reads. It's also making me paranoid of players who I've been reading as village. But we have to press forward regardless so I'm going to ignore that doubt. I don't think Scorpion's an elim, and I have a slight village read on Vulture. I'll stick to my D5 arguments for lynching Toucan. Heron's arguments against Mouse are interesting, and I wouldn't be opposed to Mouse getting lynched based off of them. That being said, I probably won't be able to get on again before turnover. I hate to be the person who doesn't say much but still tags people for activity but... I don't hate it enough not to do it. @Azure Mouse @Emerald Falcon @Magenta Albatross @Quartz Zebra @Sapphire Elephant @Violet Axolotl

Weasel. Dragonfly, I really wouldn't support making assumptions about role distribution. Also, as a general note to the thread, I would be cautious about making assumptions on the number of elims as well. Having vague estimates in mind is fine, but don't bank on it. Regarding PM safety, there aren't any PM reading abilities in the game. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Not quite. I did wonder if I was engaging in confirmation bias, but I concluded that I did not. It's true that I saw something that made me suspicious of Weasel that made me review their posts. However, I wasn't looking for examples of a conclusion I was already set on. I had come across evidence that made Weasel look suspicious (their post against Swan) which prompted the hypothesis that Weasel is an elim. I then went back over their other posts to see whether they supported or refuted the hypothesis. This wasn't about a gut read or half-remembered intuitions. I did indeed go looking to see if there were any patterns, because patterns are more telling than one-off posts. And I would argue that they make better arguments when it comes to deciding if someone is an elim or villager. I wasn't looking for a pattern to show that Weasel is an elim. I was looking for a pattern period. Whether that pattern seemed village or elim was something to determine if/after I found one. I appreciate the response. But to be honest, I'm not sure if this post makes me feel less uneasy. You've given a strong village read of one player and a very hesitant village read of another which is something you've done with many players. You only seem to truly reveal your suspicions when it comes to voting. Thanks for pointing out Toucan's suspicions of Albatross. I went back, and it does make me feel slightly less suspicious. I'm still wary because that was posted on a night turn and is followed by Toucan's vote on Albatross today. Part of what worries me is that Toucan only ever truly seems to post suspicions when it comes to voting. In other words, the theory is that elim!Toucan posts suspicions out of necessity to vote and votes out of necessity to remain unsuspicious. I can understand why you'd be suspicious of me in if Albatross turns out to be an elim. But I would like to point out that I've mentioned continuously that I have a bad gut feeling on Albatross. It's true that I haven't truly committed to an elim read of Albatross, and I can imagine that being read as two elims distancing themselves from one another. But I really do feel like I need to review Albatross' posts before committing, and they've just been low on my priority list of players to analyze and I don't have enough time to review that entire list. I also agree with Kangaroo that I doubt the elims killed Penguin to protect Albatross. It's too easy for the village to decipher that kind of strategy. I'm not saying that this means Albatross is a villager. Regardless of Albatross' alignment, I don't think the Penguin kill had anything to do with Albatross. I disagree that the post you linked attracts much attention. I read it as something that was intended to be humorous and lighthearted. Not an actual suggestion. I went to look back over this exchange, and it struck me as odd when I read it the first time as well. The possibility you mention didn't occur to me so I didn't read it as suspicious at the time. Still not sure how suspicious this is given that Dragonfly also misinterpreted Axolotl's post so it might just be one of those things where the humor wasn't very obvious? It does seem worth looking into though. @Ivory Dragonfly I'm starting to get vaguely suspicious of you with the same reasoning, but I think that's the SE paranoia kicking in. We shouldn't put our focus on players that seem "too village." It's a distraction, and I think it was one of the reasons that Beagle garnered suspicion. I agree that we should be careful, but I don't think it's useful to analyze someone's post because they're too active and/or sound to much like a villager. Our focus should be those we are suspicious of while we keep an eye on those who don't seem suspicious at the moment. So Toucan votes on Albatross. Ostrich also votes on Albatross (later switches to Scorpion) and defends Toucan. Ostrich and Axolotl had an exchange yesterday that could potentially be two elims distancing themselves. Albatross votes for Toucan with a notable, lengthy analysis. Common suspicions who are all connected somehow. Though I do think Axolotl's voting system looks too risky for an elim. I still think Weasel is the most likely to be elim, but I would rather gain information from the lynch. So I propose that we lynch Toucan. If Toucan flips village, then I'd consider Albatross cleared. If they flip elim, I will be more suspicious of Ostrich and of Axolotl by association. I highly doubt that Scorpion is an elim. The way they're posting attracts a lot of attention, as does their vote on Dragonfly. Practically everyone has a village read on Dragonfly at this point, so I'm not sure what benefit an elim would gain from trying to plant suspicions of Dragonfly in the thread. Why not go after a villager with a higher chance of being lynched? It sounds more like a villager with honest suspicions that they want to discuss. I don't like this. The evidence against Scorpion isn't strong. The Meerkat lynch felt the same way. I'm going to trust myself this time around. This is a very bad idea. Also going to note that I have a village read on Sage Kangaroo from their recent posts. Sorry for not expanding, but I already spent way more time on this post then I planned.

I had two main players that I was interested in lynching today, and they're Weasel and Toucan. Referring back to my post from night 2: Weasel: Well they trying not to lynch person whom they think that probably villager... What reasons you have to not trust them more than to anyone else in this game? If I remember right it's not the first time when you stating that counteracting to them(or atleast counteracting to Beagle). If you think that Beagle or Albatross is elim why not lynch them then you would know that Flamingo is probably also elim... I absolutely don't understand what you trying to achieve. Swan. Chameleon (me): I'm slightly leaning elim for @Indigo Weasel because of this post. Particularly the last part where Weasel emphasizes how they don't understand Swan's reasoning. I can understand the general point of view that Weasel is trying to convey. I can also understand Swan's reasoning for voting on Flamingo. It's not as out there as Weasel implies. Given the following bandwagon, I wonder if Weasel was part of a larger elim plan to get a helpful villager lynched. And as far as I can tell, this is the first time Weasel expressed suspicion of Swan. It just seems so sudden. Bolded names by me, because I still haven't worked out SE formatting. Going back over Weasel's posts (from day 2 onwards because I'm tired and day 1 is chaotic anyways), I feel like they switch around their suspicions a lot. Which isn't suspicious in and of itself but... Something about it is coming off as not genuine. The reasons themselves are sound. But after a few posts, I feel like they're trying to maintain a pattern. Contributing but keeping themselves flexible enough so that they can switch votes without casting suspicious on themselves. So they can vote on an elim, if that vote catches on, they can switch their vote to a villager, etc. It's very convenient. This could just be a move by an innocent villager, but this is one of the best elim suspicions I've got at the moment. It was the post by Weasel that I've quoted above that really made me go back and look at their posts. As for Toucan, they have consistently remained very neutral, not taking any hard stances. There was no one post of theirs that jumped out to me, but it was something that stood out as I read through the thread. They've been voting, but honestly, it would be pretty suspicious if they never did, so I'm reading that piece of information as NAI. It doesn't discount the fact that they've been hesitant to come out strongly for or against anyone. @Sunburst Toucan Would you be willing to give us some idea of which players you're leaning elim for and which you feel fairly confident are village? I know that SE games are full of uncertainty, but we can only find elims if we're willing to make some leaps of faith. If I've missed any strong reads you posted previously, please correct me. Everyone please speak up if you manage to have the time to do so. I know I haven't posted a lot so I understand if it's not possible sometimes. I especially want those who disagree with the status quo to speak up. I don't agree with Scorpion's suspicions, but I appreciate their post. Two heads are only better than one when they don't have identical views. I'll vote on Indigo Weasel for now... I really hope we just don't end up with a bandwagon the rest of the cycle. In the interest of promoting discussion,I'll tag @Sage Kangaroo. I'm eager to read that promised analysis. Even a few thoughts would be appreciated, if you're able to share them.

So I was looking over day 3 to try and get a read on some players. A few stood out to me. Sunburst Toucan: They haven't been committing to strong reads on anyone throughout the game. They've questioned a few players. But I haven't noticed them... devoted? That's a stronger word then what I'm looking for but you get the idea. I don't know what to make of it. I have a slight elim read for now. Sage Kangaroo: They also seemed somewhat noncommittal before, but their post this cycle is giving me village vibes. I look forward to their analysis. I'll withhold my opinion until then. Quartz Zebra: Strong village. Their posts are helpful and seem genuine. They put in a good deal of effort to get everyone to vote on D3. They also heavily questioned Beagle's PM's, and my thought is that if an elim would do such a thing, then the elims would want to keep Beagle alive to keep us distracted and caught up in discussing a villager. Ivory Dragonfly: Village read, but does this even have to be said at this point? Mauve Crocodile: This post of theirs: Struck me as off. The vote itself is bandwagon-y, and it feels... almost like its staged? It doesn't come off as genuine. It's bandwagoning, but the justification is phrased in such a way that it feels like it's meant to fool us into thinking that this isn't a bandwagon. Salmon Meerkat: I wouldn't have included them here if they weren't one of the main lynch candidates. I don't really understand the bad gut reads that everyone has for them. If it wasn't for all the players who were suspicious of Meerkat, I probably would've read them as village. As far as I can tell, they seem to be trying to drive discussion. But if so many feel suspicious, there must be some reason for it. The question remains is what about Meerkat sets off alarm bells. They don't set off alarms for me, so I can't say. I hate bringing up a player to say that I have a neutral read on them, but given that they've spawned so much discussion I wanted to add my two cents. Not much to say about Albatross or Ostrich and I've already spent a lot of time on SE today, so I'm not going to go back to analyze their posts right now. Still have mild bad gut feeling on Albatross, still need to actually look into it. My guess is that it's nothing, because I don't trust my gut that much when it comes to SE. Chartreuse Penguin made an interesting case against Albatross, but I want to see more from them. I can see why people find Ostrich suspicious, but I don't think it warrants a lynch just yet. Overall, both seem mildly suspicious, but nothing they've done has jumped out all that much. Out of all the lynch candidates, I think Mauve Crocodile is the best choice. @Sunburst Toucan It is. I wish I had more time to invest in this game. Also for future reference, I'm a she.

I don't have enough time to review the last lynch and all of today's posts right now, but I want to say that I think we need to stop harping on the PM group. The Swan lynch wasn't implemented in the best way, but I don't think the arrangement was suspicious (whether individual players who took part in it are suspicious is another matter). I have to agree with Beagle that at this point it's like the same points are being repeated over and over again. I'm wondering if part of this might be an elim attempt to keep us distracted. But regardless of whether there are nefarious intentions behind it, I do think that it's distracting. I don't think that we should take everyone in the PM to be a villager, as Dragonfly and Beagle have been suggesting. I'm not comfortable with reading a player as a villager unless it has to do with evidence that I can see. And if anyone is defending a player due to a village read, I would like them to refer back to public evidence. But the PM group in and of itself isn't suspicious.

I was going to make a post today, but some things have come up. I'll try to post tomorrow if I'm feeling up to it.

Forgot to mention before that I also have a village read on Meerkat. They put themselves out there for the D1 lynch when there wasn't really a need to from an elim's perspective. There are still some things I don't like about the lynch (why Swan and why so little explanation?). But I now understand why it was so sudden and why it was arranged in PM's. I had been imagining that there was some more discussion through out the day on lynching Swan, but it looks like I was wrong about that. It seems that Beagle just sent out some last minute PM's to people who trusted him.

@Oxblood Beagle Fair enough. I admit that I wasn't thinking about Axolotl's post when I was writing mine, and the compassion of SE'ers is one of the things I appreciate about this forum. Though the comment about me lynching Axolotl was unnecessary. I'm starting to get a better picture of what happened now that you and Sapphire have posted about it. I think what really struck me about the bandwagon for Swan was that not much reasoning was posted with those votes. It's hard to tell from the end of D2 why Swan was picked specifically. Especially considering she didn't have any votes on her previously. I hope the others who voted on her also chime in.

Sorry for not posting last turn. I was rereading D1 in hopes of getting a better grasp of who is who, and it took longer than I thought. @Violet Axolotl It wasn't intentional. I didn't even notice until you mentioned it. Sorry about that. I have strong village reads on both Ivory and Gecko. Ivory has been very helpful and active. He's been changing his opinions here and there, but it seems to be because he's trying to be open to feedback. Gecko has a tendency not to defend himself when pressured by the lynch which isn't a typical village move, but it's definitely not an elim move. I have a slight village read on Beagle, but I disagree strongly with how he dealt with the Swan lynch. @Oxblood Beagle I understand that some players heavily use PM's and that's just as valid as being active in thread (and it seems that you're doing both- your activity is commendable). However. To consolidate a lynch within PM's and have a last minute bandwagon is not helpful for the village. On its own it would have made me suspicious of you, but given your other posts, I don't think you're elim. The problem with taking control of the lynch this way is that players are less invested in providing their reasoning in thread because they have already discussed it in PMs. At least, I'm going to assume that's why so little reasoning was laid out in thread, which is one of the things that feels so off about the lynch. Providing little reason in thread also prevents the village at large from contributing to the arguments given, either by bolstering them or, more often, knocking them down. Which is really important. I don't like that a couple of players decided on a lynch candidate to sneak up on. And I don't think that was anyone's intention (exempting the elim(s) who voted on Swan). I think you all truly believed that Swan was an elim and were doing your best to move the game forward. I'm only saying that I disagree with the method. I would appreciate if everyone who voted for Swan explained what their thinking was at the time. I'm definitely feeling that one of the players who joined the bandwagon on Swan is an elim. It was an easy way to get involved while ensuring the death of a villager and hiding yourself in the crowd, all at the same time. I'm not against bandwagons per say but the one last cycle came out of left field. It was too quick for anyone to process, and I am not comfortable with that. Well they trying not to lynch person whom they think that probably villager... What reasons you have to not trust them more than to anyone else in this game? If I remember right it's not the first time when you stating that counteracting to them(or atleast counteracting to Beagle). If you think that Beagle or Albatross is elim why not lynch them then you would know that Flamingo is probably also elim... I absolutely don't understand what you trying to achieve. Swan. I'm slightly leaning elim for @Indigo Weasel because of this post. Particularly the last part where Weasel emphasizes how they don't understand Swan's reasoning. I can understand the general point of view that Weasel is trying to convey. I can also understand Swan's reasoning for voting on Flamingo. It's not as out there as Weasel implies. Given the following bandwagon, I wonder if Weasel was part of a larger elim plan to get a helpful villager lynched. And as far as I can tell, this is the first time Weasel expressed suspicion of Swan. It just seems so sudden. My gut has a very bad feeling about Albatross. It's somewhat hard to explain though. I have to take a closer look at them. Sunburst Toucan seems to be blending into the background while still trying to participate. I have a neutral read on them right now, but I'll keep an eye on them.

Axolotl voted on me to get me to contribute. I would hardly call it an accusation, and it was only one post. I also made an analysis post before posting a vote count. I had started writing something up when Axolotl voted on me, but even if I hadn't, I'm not sure how making a post when Axolotl was pushing me to post is suspicious. To be fair, I didn't post often, but my post did end up getting Dingo lynched so I wouldn't say I hardly contributed anything. And as I mentioned when I said I was happy with the day 1 discussion, I think having another strong lynch candidate (well, strong as far as D1 lynches go) helped spur discussion. If we didn't have a second candidate, a Swan bandwagon would have been likely. In hindsight, it's true I didn't post much so my contribution might have been bigger in my mind then it was in reality. Having a post influence the day's outcome the way my D1 post did is a first for me so I'm quite proud of it. I'm sorry we hit a villager, but it'll be useful in the long run. I'm not a fan of bringing up how long I've been on SE in an anonymous game but that might help give you a frame of reference. Also, the IRL stuff I had mentioned before no longer apply, so I should be around.