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Devotary of Spontaneity

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Everything posted by Devotary of Spontaneity

  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So there's all the votes. 2 for Luckspren and 1 for Archer just like the polls indicated. JNV's vote isn't going to change for sure and Archer and Luck's votes also look pretty stable but will likely change if one or especially both are evil. I think I'm going Luck-Archer covering for each other since the beginning and now trying to split the vote to hammer so I have to follow JNV with Luckspren.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Well e!JNV could vote on a teammate and then switch their vote later, since only the final vote counts. That post already indicated a willingness to switch to you. In that case though JNV is more likely to be evil since for deceptive vote reasons while e!JNV might want to be able to jump from v!Conq as well. Putting a vote on someone with the intention of moving it later isn't guaranteed evil though. A few votes are needed to solve this. Who would JNV be evil with if not Conq? Archer maybe. JNV
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So @Archer since TUN was village I assume he did correctly guess your C2 action? Luckspren village read comes just from Kas's claim to have tracked her C1 I think. It seems Kas did indeed have a tracker's lens since TUN stole it. She couldn't have put in the kill or the shatter if Archer is village, only Archer has any idea whether her lens is good enough that Fifth would have put in the kill if Luck is a regular elim. E!Kas clearing a teammate would be a bold play but certainly isn't impossible. TUN thought a Conq + JNV team made sense. That makes more sense than Conq + Luck or Archer given the votes this and previous cycle. Although JNV also indicated they'd go after Conq this cycle if TUN was village and before that suggested a JNV and Luck team so who knows. The lack of votes C1 and C2 makes it hard to tell with both of them.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as Diesis, a channeler suffering from saidin corruption, and Corinne, a self-styled purple Ajah, who is trying to help her.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So your C3 action is unprovable but @Archer can corroborate C1 and C2. Kas did say his lens was stolen C1. E!you would have hesitated to guess Kas did nothing with at least three lenses being randomly distributed. It's not impossible actions-wise for e!you to have tracked Kas C2 but it would be an odd choice having just stolen his lenses. So if Archer can confirm that means you're unlikely to be an elim without him.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So you had claimed Tracker's to Kas before he voted for you, and then your claim of Truthfinder's was what got him to switch? Was there any plans along the lines of you tracking or roleblocking an action so he could see you couldn't have put in the kill or the shatter, and if so did anything happen with that? I can understand him switching if he thought you'd be able to prove an action other than kill/shatter, but you also have to prove that to everyone else since without that there's reason to vote for you.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'm not sure how having lenses makes TUN village or why Kas would have decided that but I also don't see why e!Kas would have decided to shift his vote last minute to save v!TUN. TUN's shatter claim is notable, since unless anyone counterclaims the options are the elims self-targeted or hit Steel or Wizard or nobody. Unlikely for it to be Wizard since he claimed to be shattered C2 and presumably wasn't lying since he's village and JNV backed him up and getting shattered twice in a row is weird. Could be Steel but e!TUN likely would have assumed that Steel would be the one getting a pinch-hitter instead of Kas, so targeting Steel while claiming to have been shattered wouldn't have been something TUN thought of C3. The other two options are possible with e!TUN, especially if he thought he was going to be exed. If TUN and Kas were the elims, TUN would be more confident of survival and therefore less likely to self-shatter. Conq and TUN could be teamed through C3, but they're fighting today. I don't think they'd want to bus each other this cycle if they were both elims but there's still over half the cycle left for things to develop. I don't know how JNV fits into this but they're probably not elims with TUN.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I doubt TUN, Conq, and Archer are all evil since 4 elims in a 14 player game is a lot. The remaining elims easily could be in that pile and I'm inclined to start with TUN since e!Kas's vote switch doesn't make a lot of sense with v!TUN and e!Conq would care less about the vote if both alternatives were village. The conqesuences are that I'll vote early this one time.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'm suspicious of both of them, as I've said. I can see Fifth voting to save Wizard, and him voting TGK instead of TUN because the latter wasn't an option. JNV's defense of Wizard makes me prefer to see if anyone will change their minds to defend Wizard or TUN instead of just killing the easier one to exe.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So 3-3 tie. JNV is backing up Wizard, makes e!Wizard + v!JNV less likely, though there's no reason the elims can't self-target with shatter. It wastes a turn where they could be destroying village lenses in exchange for increased trust (usually) on one person. E!TUN definitely switches to Wizard and v!TUN presumably does as well. And there it is. Let's put it back to a tie with TUN.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So village on TGK and Joe unless they're for some reason both evil and really bizarre distancing was happening. Conq made a long post about valuing information other than votes and that is important but there's still a big difference between him saying he wants to vote for Fifth and actually voting for Fifth. Still, he could have voted for TGK to save Fifth so at least mild village. Kas was also in contention with Fifth but didn't vote for him, but I don't think was around to see Fifth put in jeopardy by Joe's vote. I can see Fifth voting for TGK to protect Wizard and/or choosing TGK over TUN because the latter is evil. The odds of Fifth voting e!TGK to protect Wizard increase if TUN wasn't an option or he did see Kas's vote and knew that train was viable. JNV was more around to vote than Steel or Luckspren, which makes me lean more village on JNV for not saving Fifth. I don't know if JNV saw Joe's vote though.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If Wizard was a panicked elim throwing a vote on whoever he could I would have expected there to be follow-up, or to have voted for Fifth since he already had a vote. Could be Wizard and Fifth, though he could have voted on TUN as well unless he was lying about not seeing Kas's vote. If Wizard and Fifth aren't evil TUN plausibly is, but as much as I feel like being silent merely ensures you'll continue to be wrong later it isn't unusual for TUN not to vote. Maybe look at him next cycle. Now that Joe's shifted, it's easier to check Wizard and Fifth by voting for Fifth Scholar.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Abstaining from a vote just limits the amount of information on you. Anyone can say whatever they want but it's the final votes that have the most bearing on alignment. Not wanting to leave a record is more of an elim move so long as no teammates are in danger. I don't know what to think of both Fith and Kas voting for TGK and then fighting each other though. They were strongly opposed on Ash but I suppose that only matters if Luck or Drought is evil. I tend to see preemptive survival votes as more village, because an elim knows they have a team to support them. Dinosaurs exist in Alcatraz, even though it's a modern day earth setting. Conq probably does have Translator's lenses and didn't use them, but that doesn't make him more likely to be village.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Primarily, yes.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I was considering between Ash and Mat, and then both you and JNV indicated a desire for Ash to live when I saw no particular reason for him to survive compared to Luck and Drought. There were also too many people holding votes (TGK, JNV that I remember, possibly more), which I was concerned meant they'd jump on the first convenient train, potentially to save Ash. What was in your PM with Ash that made you prefer voting Luck?
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Luckspren had posted once and is currently viewing the thread, as opposed to Droughtbringer who's fulfilling his character's talent by not being around when needed. Kas mentioned not wanting to kill Drought as a returnee. Or new players, but third game for Luck may or may not count as new. If it does, voting Luck over Ash is interesting, especially since Ash first posted after Kas's vote. Ashbringer's also showed up and neither voted on him has shifted, which makes me think Fifth and Conq actually want him dead and aren't evil with him. No strong defenses of Ash except for Kas and JNV not wanting to vote for him, but in a three elim game that could be the entire team and there's no way to know until they're dead. Mat had a couple people vote on him and then retract, which is always notable. Kind of makes me want to vote for him to see if anyone tries to push against that, though the time for that is not less than half an hour before rollover. Oh well. And I was wrong about him in QF 61 so I'm miscalibrated somehow. And now another defense of Ash from JNV. Let's go Ashbringer.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Data from ties may or may not be pertinent since fondness for ties and elim desire to protect teammates varies by player, but it is useful to have multiple close options leading up to the end of the cycle. Why did you think it was clear there wasn't malicious intent? Putting a second vote on Ash indicates a desire on Fifth's part to kill him, which may or may not be malicious depending on his alignment. How is it the latest trend for elims to push early to break ties and also a recent pattern for them to be okay with several-way ties? Maybe this is just me blanking on recent games. There's 16 possible lenses and at least 14 are guaranteed to be in the game. Tracker's lens observing someone put in a kill or shatter is reason to claim. There's no way to clear anyone so doing so in PMs weighs higher chance of remaining anonymous against the possibility of two mixes in a row before finding the lying elim (as opposed to one potential mix with a thread claim). Roleblocking + no kill maybe not since roleblocking a kill may look the same as the kill hitting someone using Disguiser's or Windstormer's lenses. @Elandera, how will those three methods of surviving a kill appear in the writeup?
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Just that it's not a good idea to claim lenses in PM if you've left obvious personal identifiers in that cycle's messages. Specifically, they're an extended family with Talents whose description make them seem useless or even counterproductive, but are actually quite useful. For years, the late Dr. Sader had harshly condemned lenses and the making and studying thereof, yet had never had a problem with Dr. Sader's own experiments with lenses. It was only after Dr. Sader failed to return from a business trip and an inspection of the departed's personal library had revealed the existence of other continents and magical lenses crafted from special sands that she understood the distinction. Armed with detailed directions for Dr. Sader's last known location, Dr. Sader headed out herself to find any traces of Dr. Sader and discover whether these magical sands could be a boon to her own research.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as Dr. Sader again, who is determined to be more successful at killing this time.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I do want to be in all PMs. Players may also PM me directly if they have any game-related concerns.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Well we weren't winning that no matter what. Looks like PMing Archer solo after he made a PM with TUN and I did not in fact avoid elims, and it makes sense that Archer blindly trusted TUN and didn't care which of Stick or Mat died. Nice to see that Ziel got to be an honorary elim, since this result is what she was hoping for. She always expected to die achieving the goal she named herself for, but perhaps an ex-noble and a single-blessing Kandra can build a new life in the Outer Basin.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It is tied. I think both could be evil but I don't want 50-50 so I'll switch to vote=Stick.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So you think I'm likely village unless my being close to death was a ploy with me and e!Mat to make sure I'm dead? I think I'm interpreting you incorrectly since you've also said that you don't think Mat and I are e/e and you're trying to get Mat to vote alongside you to kill me. Makes sense honestly. If I was up against elim Tani it's much more likely there would have been a bribe to kill me, and elim Devotary would have known Tani was village instead of just being pretty sure because nobody was bothering to save her. 2-2 does lose. Going for an assassin is still reasonable since Archer, Stick, and I can all theoretically afford an assassin and if the elims get one it could easily be game over. The elims already have a bonus to assassination since they can make sure one villager doesn't get one (or anything ever again). Let's see if quoting posts from myself last cycle works. This is the reason I was leaning elim on Mat last cycle and Tani flipping village just like he predicted made it seem even more likely that he was an elim and making reads based on knowing everyone's alignment. I would have voted Mat last cycle if it was viable so I put in an early vote this cycle.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You might not have been worried about dying, but what were your thoughts on who should die? You didn't feel the need to vote for me and put it to a tie, so did that mean you supported Tani's death or were you just concerned about keeping the one extra boxing from being the only vote on you? There's enough people who got to 8 that this feels unlikely unless it's TUN and Archer/Stick. I don't think I'd want to vote for someone for being rich and not dead, though the elims have shown willingness to kill rich villagers so it's some evidence. Archer was the one who self-voted first, not Mat. Why didn't you go for more money? There were three people you didn't respond to that you could have paid off your blackmail with. "You have to aspire to be more than a weapon. What are your goals, your desires? Why do you walk this path of ruin with me?" "I am unable to be anything else. I was the Lord Ruler's weapon for four centuries, and Harmony's for three. Now, I am yours." "I am not Harmony. I do not ask for your service, only that you seek a Scadrial where bloodline does not confer power and everyone is provided the resources and opportunities they need to pursue the life they choose, or stand aside if you do not. Surely there must be limits to your service, or else you would be at Harmony's side still." "If you tried to take power afterwards, I would stop you." "Kill me?" "If I must." Ziel laughed. "I must admit, that is a relief to hear. My family wanted me to be another Last Emperor. I was raised on stories of him, trained to be a perfect ruler, even named after him. Turning into him has been my greatest fear for most of my life. I've read extensively on how quickly his pretty ideals crumbled in the face of opposition to become cruel tyranny. How easily the thoughts of dismantling the Steel Ministry and hereditary nobility were dropped in favor of convenience and expediency. Long term efforts to finally grant skaa control over their destinies were walked back again and again until he ran out of time, and the Empire would have continued on as it had for a thousand years were it not for Sazed. Even the powers of a deity were not enough to excise the corruption that has suffused our world since the Lord Ruler granted himself and his supporters a divine right to rule so many centuries ago, and if I sought power in the wake of my planned destruction I would become another source of corruption instead of a remedy. No, I always knew my journey would end once I carved a path for the people of this world to make their own choices unimpeded, but for your sake I'll make sure of it."
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Killing a village loudest voice is a reasonable choice for the elims to make, since it prevents villagers from purchasing assassins and bodyguards. I could have bought vote manipulation but it's expensive and it didn't seem like anyone cared enough about my death to get me killed. Had I stronger suspicions of Tani being an elim I probably would have bought a bribe. Free boxing for TUN. I would have preferred exing Mat to Tani last cycle but I knew if it didn't take off I would switch back. I should have been on faster this cycle since now vote=Matrim doesn't earn boxings. The elims have a shared google doc to communicate in and they'll often ask questions there. EoD is end of day. The bot can't tell which words are relevant or not so inefficient sentences are fine. Bribes are vote manipulation. You would send in an order in the PM Xino sent you at the beginning of the game to purchase a bribe and tell him which vote you're moving and to where.
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