Archer

What do you call a Mistborn that's good at entrepreneurship? A House Venture Capitalist Mat

Okay I feel bad for missing Kas' vote so here's a VC: Mat: TUO, Dalinar, Archer Steel: Mat Elk: Kas, Illwei I was running the same experiment. But pokes don't work if they're explicitly pokes, so I'm confused why you felt the need to cover yourself by saying it was an experiment. I meant exe when I said kill, as in your choice of who to vote off. You backwalked the Illwei v-v read which let's you vote for them, then jumped to Steel, who is confusing in a way elims can exploit while most villagers would just walk away from. Going down your reads list. Even Eoosa is confused why you're village reading them. Devo I don't see why you'd think they're evilish, you had them there even when still reading Illwei as good last cycle. Chantara I'd put as more evil than good. Then Illwei as full elim seems a bit much, and Steel too. Mint I'd put more null. The point of reads lists is to see how well people are mind melding. I disagree with a number of placements, and kinda feel like you sunk Illwei and Steel so you could focus on exing them first because you've teammates near the bottom of the list. That's ranging into tinfoil though. Also, there's the matter of your vote on Azmine. I find you and Esooa to be the most suspicious people on that wagon. So it's worth pursuing. I mean, I'm planning to come back to this tomorrow and reevaluate anyway, but realistically, I'm not sure a claim would make much difference. Unless you're something cool If you're something cool, PM me :3

I'm getting villager vibes from Dalinar, but I want to point out that Illwei wasn't present when the wagon on them formed. I believe they were at work for that 6 or so hour span, so they couldn't have self pressed. One thing that's standing out to me about Mat is when they voted TUO they said something like "[vote] As an experiment." It felt like an elim who is trying to head off complaints of trying to make bad wagons later. I've also gotten the sense that they're struggling to pick a good kill choice, which could be because their traditional first picks are their teammates. Steel is village, I'm pretty sure of it, so I dislike that vote. Their tone seems town. Congrats, Elk, you out-waited me. Mat YO Kas, who ya voting for. I forget if you have a vote down yet

Looked at D1. The remaining group is all some shade of null. I strongly suspect there’s elim(s) in the set, but I can’t place who they are. -Esooa: Feigned newness initially, but freely admitted it afterwards, which is positive. Seems to gravitate towards Illwei interactions and vice versa, which I’m struggling to read. -Squirrel: Possibly overcompensating. -Frozen Mint: Started by advocating for all locations to be shared, which is a fun idea, although they later retracted it. -Mat: I liked them saying Illwei-Azmine was probably v-v yesterday, but since they’ve retracted that, I’m retracting my village read for it. Had that post at the end of D1 that could have been them mistakenly feeling they needed to say something because they were present near rollover. I confess I also got vague evil vibes from them, but I couldn’t identify why so working assumption is that it was because they were talkative, and that’s NAI. I disagree with a few of their reads though, which is notable. -Illwei: If Illwei is evil, the team is probably Devo, Steel, Esooa, which the option of switching in a TUO, Dalinar, Tani, or Kas. I’m reading Steel as village, but my Devo read is out the window if Illwei is evil. The Illwei wagon came out of nowhere, so you could argue them almost being killed isn’t super AI. As much as my instinct is to trust them for it, based on how it went down, I don’t think that’s a fair assessment. They got lucky if they’re evil though, picking up cover from me, Mat, and Steel. We have a lot of info on Illwei because of the near death experience. I’ve got them down as not being e-e with Mat, Chantara, Frozen, Squirrel, and TJ. If you’re an alignment scanner, it might be worth your time to figure out how to get a read on them, because it has a high potential payoff. I was initially going to vote Esooa today, but I don't have a good reason for it. Elk had a vanity vote, so that's a lead anyway. Edit: I just remembered why I was sus of Eossa: they were too suspicious of Azmine, like an elim who wanted to justify a bad vote

This was meant to be a short look at a few people but then I kept adding people so it’s long. -v!TJ: I think I always view them as village, but c’mon. They clearly read the thread and had thoughts, and they proposed an awesome gambit! I think if they’d actually done the gambit, it would have cemented their villageness, but they didn’t. And there was little reaction to it, which could be elim teammates knowing not to take the bait. But because I agreed with much of what they said, I’m trusting them for now. -n!Kas: I kinda liked their vote on Esooa, and their retraction because they’re new makes sense. I wouldn’t have switched to a player off of a hiatus, but that’s their call. There’s little to read, and the vote is a safe one, so they’re null for now. -n!Dalinar: There was a little bit of a communication barrier, but we got there in the end. I’m not sure why they’d reveal their location and then count of someone using their one-shot ability to switch them elsewhere. I think their analysis is faulty (Devo does that regardless of alignment, ignores possibility they were scanned, ignores chance of villagers sharing information unknowingly with elims etc). Still, I keep thinking, would an elim risk being alignment scanned by claiming to three people D1? Would a villager risk being NKed? Was it their real location? I’m null on them right now. Maybe leaning village because I like their style. -n!TUO: TUO has a habit of being more engaged when he’s an elim, and therefore they get contribution crusaded less. But anyway, because they do get killed a lot, they have a lower tolerance for votes. Elims generally are more scared by votes than villagers, because they care more about not dying, but TUO is susceptible to pokes because often those pokes stick and they die. They also apply an innocent until proven guilty logic to themselves than few others subscribe to D1, which makes reading their reactions all the more difficult. I don’t like how they moved their vote from me to Mat when I pressured them, as v!TUO should have seen that as confirmation I was voting on villagers like the evil parent burner I am, but I can see how of the two of us, they could find Mat’s piggyback even worse. I’m null reading the whole encounter. Biggest outstanding question about them relates to their interactions with Elk, but I’m following up on that in PMs. Sidenote: I think opsec means open secret? -v!Steel: Their specific vibe is a combination of early game TUO and late Zelda-game Alvron. I’ve personally gotten them killed (as an elim) in two recent games early on, so I think it’s reasonable that they could be overly frustrated when pressured. I like TJ’s read: their rambly post was too blatant to be an attempt at appearing engaged. I know from their Link fake-claim in the Zelda game that they’re capable of better. My biggest outstanding quibble is the vote on Azmine, but I’m reading them as village currently. -e!Elk: I remain surprised how quickly they learned all the houses, but based on some people saying they told or were approached about it, I’m a little less suspicious of the accomplishment now (pending further verification). I really don’t like their vote on Tani, which came at 40 minutes to rollover and was on someone who had yet to speak (Tani). I feel like it could be because they didn’t want to pick a fight with someone present and draw attention to themselves, or they didn’t want to be on a successful mix and take heat for it. What gives me pause though is that they didn’t need to release the house names like they did, especially if they did end up using an elim teammate’s location to get the list started. Although I don’t doubt someone in the elim doc volunteered to try PM spidering for the info he gathered. -n!Tani: It’s D2, that’s past the time for contribution crusades. I don’t support voting them. -e!Chantara: The PM interaction I had with them felt like someone had told them rookies don’t need to be super engaged and they’ll get a pass. Their reads list I’ve discussed already, but I’ll note again that the Illwei vote seemed arbitrary. And I’ve benefited from the ‘if they’re evil, they would have known the rules!’ logic before, it’s not always true; even elims have questions they pose in public, or mistakes they make. I imagine the elims had a similar problem to us: there was few solid kill options. Half the players were new or returning, several had been early kills in recent games, and of the remaining, some would have been village read. Since they have great influence over the exe, they would have had to have some sort of discussion about who they feel okay letting die. Azmine was a decent choice. I can see them liking Illwei since they play a lot of games at once anyway (I know Mat saw them as a palpable kill option). Mat, Devo, Kas, and myself rounded out the list, I imagine, minus the elims in that group. -v!Devo: When I PMed them about the main motivations for their vote, they cited not wanting Illwei to be D1ed again. That was a satisfying answer to me. They always vote late, and usually vote on a main wagon. I like the pragmatism. I’m village reading them. I think that’s all the easy reads out of the way. I’ll look at Frozen Mint, Illwei, Mat, Esooa (I’m Still a Rockstar), and Squirrelwatcher tomorrow. I’ve got feelings about some of them but for that I’ll actually need to thread trawl.

Here's what's bugging me. Elk said they learned the four locations last Day. I'm skeptical that a villager could have done that. He could include his own location in that list, but any villager who claimed to him would have known that doing so risked being the elim kill. Best case scenario, the three people who claimed to him had different houses, but odds are there'd be some overlap. Is everyone just being really free with their information? Or did he have the benefit of knowing some elim teammates' locations? It's difficult to parse this out without giving the elims some idea of who claimed what, but I think it's worth at least asking if anyone will admit to having claimed to Elk

Apologies Az. I was kinda hoping you'd turn out to be evil but it was a longshot from the start I'll dig into what went down more broadly later, but to piggyback on Mat for a second, Chantara had an odd reads list. -Praises TUO for aggressively not wanting to die, which is more of an elim tell to me. -Called Dalinar suspicious for doing RP. -Clears Frozen, returning the favor. -Calls TJ out for being distracted but not Steel, who has a similar disposition. -Calls Esooa suspicious for faking newness, but backs off on it in the same sentence. -Then implies an Illwei-Esooa team and votes based on it. Seems to be giving Illwei a harder time than TUO. * Also on my radar is Mat saying they think Az is village and then not suggesting alternatives. Distancing from the results of a village flip.

@Araris Valerian my vote is currently on Azmine, not TUO. RP is a softball too, so I'm not sure where Illwei is coming from with their v!Squirrel argument. Another benefit of the Night Crew role is revealing what roles exist. If you're comfortable revealing your amazingly powerful role, you could at least enter that into the public domain. I'm guessing the elims have a few houses between them and will find out more faster than the village will, so putting it out there levels the playing field. Interesting idea. My gut reaction is, you do you?

I meant changing your vote when under pressure. Elandera pushed you on it and you dropped your red. But you switched this time, so while I'm a little confused by your process, I'm not getting elim vibes right now. On to Azmine, who I think was intentionally flagrantly deflecting and hoping no one would call their bluff. TUO Azmine Edit: on an unrelated note, Squirrel and Illwei aren't e-e. I believe Illwei PMed Squirrel because Squirrel used the same '>' in their PM title to me as Illwei did when messaging me. I doubt this will be relevant any time soon, but I wanted to note it now before I forgot.

BECAUSE ILLWEI IS TURNING UP THE HEAT. HOO-AH well that seems reasonable, I was really just pressuring you to see if you'd change your vote lik- :eyes: that'swhatyoudidlastelimgame

So far, I've got no clue what your thoughts are, game-wise. Any roles stand out to you as particularly elimy or not? Anyone say anything suspicious or trustworthy yet?

Rules Summary Locations: Everyone starts in one of four. Allomancers fail if they submit the wrong location, and can only do so twice. Allomantic Roles: Night only -Coinshot: Kill. -Lurcher: Protector from kill. -Soother: Action blocker. -Seeker: Allomantic role scanner. -Tineye: Alignment scanner. -Thug: Self-protector. Location Roles: Night only -Drunk: Randomly change your location. -Overseer: Change locations of two targets. -Night crew: Learn final location of a dead player. -Gambler: Swap locations with someone else and learn your new location. -Child: You’re told if your location changes. (Passive.) -Informant: Learn someone’s location. Recharge Roles: Day only, once per game. -Elder: can give someone an extra use of their location role. -Metallurgist: Can grant a player an extra charge of their Allomantic ability. Other Notes: -OOA has location moving roles going last. -The elims can make one location scan and one kill (two charges for the game, same as Coinshot) per Night. Commentary: I wonder if the four elims have a Thug, while we have a Tineye, Coinshot, and Lurcher. The kill protects could flip. Overseer has elim potential because they can swap a teammate with a villager and know where the villager will end up (Throw in a Child to swap around and you can run that play multiple times). I doubt Night Crew is village because it messes with the Slum Lord competition. Informant could double kill options for the elims without needing switch roles. Recharge roles seem villagey, although the rules mention the possibility of an Elim Metallurgist so. Elder+Coinshot could be fun. Two of the elims will use their actions on the kill and scan, so that’s limiting right there. I think they’ll focus on securing the locations of kill candidates who are unlikely to be exed, using a combination of their Location roles and their scan. I’m expecting them to keep it simple to weed down our numbers. Elims win by outnumbering, not parity, which is another disadvantage. They've got to have something good for balance reasons. * Squirrelwatcher TUO

Poof! Eron appeared behind them. "Burnt to a crisp, eh gov'nah? Round here, we say they didn't chip in to the racket. Left me holding the bag, or should I say the hot potato? I just wish I'd seen you, their tater tot, and finished the job!" Ising the understanding completely, yes yes. Do you think I should keep my vote on fluf- Squirrelwatcher or move it to Azmine the Uncommital? Did you intentionally distance with Illwei in your first post?

Presumably you be completely honest in PMs about where and who you are and don't have to make up anything! It does make the final challenge harder if we don't get any claims though. Maybe we'll get lucky and Araris started all the elims in the same slum, which would actually make thematic sense. Hm. Also, TUO, I need more RP lore about your dead family if I'm going to be your arch nemesis.

that's not even my worst read. I have an irrational elim read on Mint He- Frozen Mint for answering the PM creation question because elims like answering softballs. I need more people to talk so I can do better susses 1. Village coinshot 2. Difficult kill to manage

Eron twirled their cape at the (accurate) accusation. "Revenge is a dish best served coaled! So now that I've ember-assed you, I'll make you work to match my wit. Come guess my s-parking spot to get your due." Then he disappeared in a poof of - what else would it be - smoke. This seems reasonable. I haven't done a line by line look at the rules yet, but my initial assumption is a stronger than usual elim team. Since 16/4 splits so nicely, I'm feeling a 4 man team with good roles, but I'd believe 5. What do y'all think? Esooa-Illwei not e-e, or Esooa is playing us for fools. Both are possible. Howdy, new folk. Especially you, Squirrelwatcher

That was fast! Good game, all. -Initially I was worried our team was underpowered, but it seemed to work out. I roleblocked vanilla Devo twice thinking they were the Sniper, but we won't talk about that. The low activity helped sway things to balance the Thug. And it helped the vote manip died early. C1 it was very hard to find a scapegoat, so I apologize for that exe, Steel. (Although you did try to secretly vote for me... >. >) -I think to avoid inactives being confirmed village by a successful elim kill occurring, an adjustment should be made so that if you don't submit kill orders, two random targets are submitted for you. That way there's a small chance those people are evil -As it was, I think we got very fortunate with the kills. C1 I was certain Elk would pick Devo, but he went for Drought and TUO instead. Which was a fair strategy, but not the one I expected him to expect me to expect. And then we both targeted Devo and Drought the next day, hoping to get Drought but not wanting to risk the other person just submitting one of the names and no kill happening. So again we got lucky and the best kill went through. -In theory, these rules make it hard for hammer to occur and for elims to protect their teammates subtly. It didn't really hurt us because we just lone wolfed it and were both on at rollovers, but in a longer game, I think it had the potential to be really interesting how those dynamics play out. Eventually, something would have failed to work out and the group would have gotten to analyze that. Which I like. They were good rules. -It was a pleasure being evil with you, Elk! It was always a relief seeing you log in at the right times. Although you said C3 would be your most active day. Falsehoods! -Thanks for running this, Mat, Araris. It was fun. Edit: Dead doc responses -I forgot the exe comes before the NK. That could have been bad. Shoulda kept having Elk do it. -If Devo was a Thug, I wanted to exe them and NK Elandera because there's no way they're both Thugs. I could have double tapped them, but there was a chance in my mind that there was no Thugs at all, and I wanted to kill them both. -I expected my fake claim to be caught. The plan if I was villager was to fake claim vote manip and pretend to bus myself to hopefully confuse the elims into missing a kill or hitting someone other than me. I executed it as an elim for village cred. I figured my last post C1 about wanting to be fair would be immediately clocked as BS and everyone would figure out what I tried to do; I was trolling the elims, y'all, trying to exploit the possibility of a failed NK. Smh it was a pro gamer move

Wait Something's wrong here. At this point we can only really win if Devo is a Thug and they don't NK Elandera Devo, wanna switch to Elk with me?

Out of curiosity, Devo, what role are you? Also, if I end up dying, I'd like it to come at the hands of some swift military justice so you can RP something like: "Peggy 'Pegleg' Flamingo," Ironsides decreed. "You don't have a leg to stand on." Elandera, you should survive today. I think I'll be NKed, and Devo will be exed, so good luck with the coinflip round. Don't forget to vote. Maybe we'll get lucky with an inactive Elk.

I guess confirmed villagers are the best targets, even if they're inactive and near filter kill territory? Interesting. If Elandera is evil, and we exe her today, with a successful NK, she'll tank it and they'll reach the outnumber condition and win. So it's down to Elk or Devo. I don't remember much of Elk's play so far, which is a red flag, so I gotta reread. It's a shame you all voted for Lotus, it would have been way easier to just blame everyone who did. @ other villager, we need to vote together on the elim that isn't e!Elandera. So if you've got something good to argue, I'm all ears. Edit: also, those were both vanillas. Looks like there was one of each role * Edit: aight I think I'm most confident in an evil Devo. Both cycles they had the killing vote. Elk and Elandera aren't e-e because Elk voted Elandera into a tie C1. So it's either Elandera-Devo or Elk-Devo. Appropriately for this game, death goes to the overlap. I'd ping Mat, but I'm the only post here, so I'm sure he'll notice it.

I'm curious what the potential rule change was, but more intriguingly, I think e!Elandera asked Mat a good question in their chat and is trying to relay what they learned to their partner. I'm not sure why she'd ask this otherwise. Friendly reminder that with an NK, mix, and sniped villager, the game could end at the end of this round. How do you feel about me? Do you think I'm evil? Good? Secretly a neutral role with gamebreaking powers? I feel like I've said enough that people should have an opinion on me by now. Alternatively, we can take the stalling route and exe Elandera. Let's assume Drought is replaced and a pinch hitter steps in. They're conf village. Then with an NK and no sniping, we go to 3v;2e with no extra lives in play. At that point, any remaining villager will be presented with three possible elims, and will know that two of them are evil. Thats a better position than a mix and NK takes us to, which would be 2v:2e, which guarantees Thug Elandera wins. At this point, I'm not willing to stake the game on Elandera's alignment, so I'm leaning in that direction right now. Drought could of course be NKed, but are they really going to risk doing that when he could be straight up mod-killed if no pinch hitters signed on? It's a pick your poison situation Elandera

Talked. There wasn't much to say with a thread that dead, but the two of us said the most of anyone, including some role analysis and suspicion throwing. If you remove yourself as an option because of #ThugLife and Drought as a potential filter kill, we're left with Lotus, Steel, and TUO, who had fairly basic posts with pure poke votes, then Elk, who had a bigger post but gets the returning player pass, the me and Devo, who should have been the best picks. How did they reasonably expect to match kill choices in the low activity pool? It makes more sense to go for the higher activity, more likely to be trusted people because they'd said more that no one had objected to. Unless they didn't have a choice because I was an exe possibility and Devo was evil. TUO being hit implies they both went into the low activity pool because they were forced to based on their team members. Elandera's post has me looking at and they and Devo elim team right now. I think I'd be willing to do either. At this point, I'm not that confident Elandera even is a Thug. It'd be a bold fake claim, but if they correctly guessed that they game doesn't have any, they'd be unlikely to have another real Thug counter claim. They're both going on the offence right now along lines that don't sit right to me. So Devo Thanks, DiceDiceDiceDiceDiceDDiceDiceDiceDiceDiceDiceDice. Would the rules allow for a two person elim team with an inactive member to successfully make a kill? Any thoughts on the kill, votes, or suspects? It'd be nice to know what you're thinking and who you plan on voting for Edit: TUO poked Elandera, didn't they? Perhaps that had something to do with it

I could totally see two village flightleaders, but that scenario involves an elim flightleader, and at that point, it's getting rather crowded at the front. I'm guessing from the lack of vote manip, Steel was the only one. I do not have the ability to vote on two people at once, but it was rather useful for doubling my poking abilities. Also, from the outset I assumed I'd be the favoured elim target most likely to get the overlap, and once I learned how the kills actually worked, my strategy became to try and fake at least one elim out at last minute to cause a no kill. If it looked like there was a chance I'd be exed, I figured the elims would change targets. Without the obvious pick as an option, they were more likely not to match up with each other. The flaw of that plan was I assumed that myself and you, Devo, would both be selected, and a villager would die that way anyway. Ultimately, a villager was attacked, but I was surprised to see it was TUO that got hit. The elims have to pick the obvious villagers to maximize overlap potential, so going for a null read is surprising for them. I suppose it's possible they both ended up on both Devo and TUO, but it still feels off to me. TUO being a Sniper target does actually conveniently explain things, but then, why would someone shoot TUO C1?

Or I was just lying about voting for myself. I believe this hard clears Drought, unless it's a three person elim team. You can't get the two vote minimum for the elim kill if one of them is inactive. Devo, why weren't you NKed?

I'll summon him. X (that's a press X to drought joke) I'd like to give Steeldancer a fair chance, so I'm actually going to move my second vote onto myself. It's now a two-two tie. I've bribed the Gods of Luck and Chance with maple donuts, so I'll probably survive, but it's still delightfully uncertain!