Jump to content

Archer

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3779

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Archer

  1. Archer
    Yeah, I didn't consider the implications of the Mercenary flips enough there. It doesn't make sense to have a 2-shot and an Operative on the Alliance team. Devo I think I'll copy Mat and figure this all out Sunday morning. Merry Christmas, all!
  2. Archer
    Progress! On two fronts! If anyone asks how this game is going, tell them we've killed an elim every round and gloss over the rest of the details. :D. Hey Devo , I can't help but notice you seem to always be on the winning exe wagon. Seems like an Operative style of play to me. I'd made some notes about the last round during rollover but I need to redo them because the theory I'd come up with was that Szeth was teammates with Mat or Illwei and apparently that's not true. Edit: smh, Mat, why you gotta call me out like that. /s
  3. Archer
    Do share! Ah yes, because Reaver recruitment involves persuading people to become evil via PM's. Not going pew pew you're evil now, live with it. Also, you have a terrible habit of casting votes that look like they're in reaction to a vote that was just cast. to be fair, it's as good an idea as the fake claim thing was :P. Mat is targeting peripherals and Illwei is targeting, well I think at least two wrong choices, so that's interesting. Why would you vote for the Alliance of the bunch, instead of who you think is a Reaver? The obvious connection here is Lotus-Illwei based on their matching votes. When I tried to work it out, I couldn't peg Szeth as anything other than Crew, so I'll object by voting Illwei
  4. Archer
    I don't believe it. Seems like a trick. :P. I should read the writeups better. In a game like this, there's the possibility the two alignments signal ideas to each other through posts like that. That's what my suspicion was based on. That's an interesting theory! My counterargument would be that a!Szeth risked pushing the exe onto a!me, so the net loss would be the same. The execution risk seems too high to make that a reasonable plan, especially because I ended up in a tie with a 50/50 chance of being exed at the end of it. Who cares that they're "suspicious", that exemas line was hilarious. Your plan works a lot better now that the vote manip is out of the way. Does the ties lead to an RNG target apply in a no vote scenario? Let's assume there's four elims out there, and six of us. Let's also assume protection roles negate the Operative kill, and we lose one villager per round. It's basically a coin flip every time that we find one clue. If we all search, minus the bodyguard, this round has a 10+10+10+10+20=50% chance of finding a Secret. Let's say it goes to 40% next round, then 30% is when the Reavers hammer at EoD. There's other possibilities, like elim friendly fire, but in that situation, our odds of success are fairly low, even if we forgo the exe. So I'd rather treat this as an elim game where we win by taking out all the baddies, and hope that we get lucky with the Secret search along the way. But if y'all want to commit to a round of no kill as a Christmas treat, I won't interfere with it. * Owl Sity sat happily in his spacebedroom, playing the only song he knew for the piano, like that dusty kid in Charlie Brown.
  5. Archer
    It's also possible we had a conversion, and Danex was the Operative kill. The Shepard theory is believable though, because that would help explain why no Secrets were discovered. It wasn't necessarily about the team, although if they'd connected with a teammate or been converted, that would have been great. Plan A was figure out what they were thinking, reasoning that they'd at least probably try to avoid voting for potential teammates, hence my interest in getting them to vote on someone. I gave them possible pairings and stuff and they ended up choosing the Mat route, which realistically I had down as a villager, so that made sense. Plan B was go deep cover and hope to find the Secrets if the exe didn't go our way. But that wasn't going to be needed because they were being heavily voted upon. I actually was interested in who might jump off that wagon once it got to four votes because that might have been Reaver indicative, but there was a secondary benefit of we would have guaranteed killed a!Szeth that round if they hadn't chosen to do what they did. I was also waiting for the elims to hammer and show their hand too, because they should be trying to protect their Alliance allies. It's hard to tell what happened there because the gambit thing threw everyone's final votes off. There’s three possibilities here. One, Szeth is Reaver. Illwei-Szeth would explain Illwei’s interest in killing me, but not explain why they would risk my Crew flip pointing to them as a suspect. Two, they’re Alliance and used the opportunity to get out of being exed. But I think the biggest point against that theory is that I felt that they felt I was Alliance – so they’d be bussing a teammate. So the most likely is Three, where they really are just a Crew. That theory is buoyed by the fact that they pulled the ripcord on C1 instead of sitting on it and risking allowing the exe of a villager. Like any reasonable Crew member absolutely would. Except me. :P. So yeah, they're very likely village. Unfortunately. Rereading the thread, a few things stand out to me. -I don't know why Illwei expected me to stick to my poke of a guy who wasn't going to show up. -I still say Mat might have been spooked by my Dannex vote, but I've warmed to the defense that it was too blatant to be e-e protection. -Lotus' vote/unvote seems like an elim participating for its own sake. PMing sounds nothing like peeing, it sounds like plumbing. -"I think that's a matter of judgement on their part when the time comes. If they get informed that the fighter is going to be attacked that would be a good time I believe. Otherwise it depends on the matter at hand and the alignment of the doctor." This is a weird take from TUO, because giving advice to elim doctors isn't the best strategy. -Illwei didn't explain why they voted for Ashbringer, but did provide a list of other people they'd prefer to kill... then didn't vote for any of them. (Not that voting off an Alliance member is a problem.) -Mat was the first to move onto me, then TUO and Devo implicitly supported me, so I wonder if the elims wanted to exe Szeth, have them flip Crew, then get an easy exe on me. Except Devo provided an out and TUO retracted their Szeth vote, so ignore that idea. -Hey @Teia, what do you think about all this?
  6. Archer
    I killed a baddie, so I'm obviously conf town. :P. Just kidding. I feel like I have some questions to answer, so fire away if you have them. That end of round was... a lot! EDIT: Oh I forgot Danex was voting for me. Good thing I didn't stay on Szeth huh
  7. Archer
    Excuse me while I shamelessly self pres Ashbringer
  8. Archer
    Okay so basically I PMed Szeth with a message saying I think we're both Alliance, and then Szeth responds in a way that genuinely made me think they were Alliance. So naturally I tell them I'm a Reaver. The plan was to go deep cover and find the Secret if the exes went poorly, or to figure out who the team was through them. I'll try and explain it better next round but yeah. That backfired. :D. And I genuinely don't know if it was because of E!Szeth being worried and pulling their ace or v!Szeth playing me
  9. Archer
    I KNEW IT! XD. I'd prefer not to die over this. Hey Szeth, we should talk in our PM real quick.
  10. Archer
    Szeth it is! Danex
  11. Archer
    Hope you recover quickly, Ash! There's an interesting difference in the reactions to Lotus' reasoning versus the ones to Szeth's. Neither made a lot of sense, but Szeth got two votes for theirs while Lotus got none. Perhaps it's because Lotus retracted theirs, but I actually prefer committing to a gut read over not voting at all. As Illwei might be alluding to, it's the same kind of opportunism that has me voting Danex.
  12. Archer
    Excellent, now I can ask you guys again next cycle and know if you've been converted based on how your answer changes. >:) Questions for anyone besides Mat and Illwei. I was going to make it just TUA, but I'll open it up a bit: -The doctor can stop all kills (besides the exe) in a cycle from happening, but they can only do it once. When's the best time for them to do that? -The mechanic has a 20% chance of finding a Secret piece, but can only search every other cycle. Should they start this cycle or the next one? We have more people right now, so our odds of finding our two per cycle maximum are better than they will be tommorow even without the mechanic, but if they delay, they might have less opportunities to search if the game ends quickly. -The Shepherd can stop someone from attacking. Is it better to do that every round, or search for a Secret piece? -Do you think the Companion, who can turn a non vote into a vote of their choice, is more likely to be elim or village? And how comfortable are you leaving votes on the table to be manipulated like that?
  13. Archer
    Hey. Hey Mat. Are you a member of the Crew? You would have had a terrible time winning last game when everyone was an Ookla. :P. Who have you PMed this round?
  14. Archer
    This game got a lot easier when we cut the truth and lies part and just had all the Crew publicly declare that they don't want to be killed today. I have good advice! Tell your GM how you think your role works. Sometimes you've very wrong and that's good to know! Could you please explain the thought process that brought you to that decision? You did the old piggyback a poke maneuver. Classic Araris.
  15. Archer
    For some reason I thought Brandon's birthday was the 26th, not the 19th and completely missed that. So thank you, now I have a State of the Sanderson I can read after this! Why'd you pick Mat? l think technically the Op isn't a member of the Alliance until they are, so it'd only be an individual win for killing the psychic, with no credit given for stopping the Secret from being revealed. Speaking of Secrets, I hope everyone has their orders in by now. If you haven't, today is a fine day for doing that. This feels like you're filling in for Araris. :P. Although TUA is voting for you right now, which adds pressure. Nnnnn's on the other hand seems opportunistic. It pains me to let that scoundrel Walin off the hook, but my vote must now move to Danex.
  16. Archer
    There's two things going on here. One, I struggle to spell psychic and keep confusing it with physic. Two, I confuse psychics and mechanics very easily because they both do things 20% of the time. So I need to stop talking about them so much. How about those... companions huh! Wouldn't it be funny if one manips the Operative into voting out a psy- nope I did it again. This is a problem. Strong enough to vote on?
  17. Archer
    Low, if there aren't many psychics. I'm hoping we've got at least two, since Elandera has taken care to introduce that possibility. And in that case, I'd also like to declare that I'm village. :P. But yeah, if only because I generally believe people as a rule, that's a good read. I found little glass jars at a thrift store for my dice and I gotta say they look fabulous on display like that. I think we all agree that the one thing you said you can't get for Christmas is the perfect gift idea. :D. Cool looking notebooks are also nice. What happens if the Alliance fulfill their wincon? Does the game end, or do the Reavers have the chance to kill them off and also win? And I forget if this was confirmed somewhere, but when the Operative wins, they're removed from the game, right? (PMs are still open if you want to negotiate an alliance with the village, Opey. We can kill everyone else first, then let you kill the psychic for a mutual win...) Random other thought. If we get one kill tomorrow, instead of two or three, we're going to have to reevaluate people because of the conversion potential. So that adds credibility to the small Reaver team theory.
  18. Archer
    I will amend my greeting to welcome old player, but leave my vote in place. :P. that comment felt directed at someone... probably Walin, who we all know is evil. Geez, Walin, why you picking on Mat?? I'm trying to balance my experience with the TJ game distro against the good odds of the Alliance and Reavers teaming up eventually, which effectively makes an elim team with two kills and a common goal to end things quickly. Unless it's some crazy distro where everyone's a thug... HMM No, the greeting is Happy Hollow Days, not Knights
  19. Archer
    The rules doc really is pretty. It also has a lot of lovely flavor that is completely lost on me! :P. All we need to do to win is reveal the Secret, so I think spending an action searching is better than most other alternatives, unless you can block a kill, because dragging this game out for as long as possible is our best shot at winning. Put another way, if you’re a village coinshot, kindly hold your fire unless you’re very confident. Everyone non-Crew can work together, and in fact is incentivized to. It narrows the Operative’s list of candidates, lets the Alliance know who to block, and the Reavers can agree to kill the Crew first (save one), then kill the Alliance, then kill the final Crew member and they all win together. The final Crew member might be able to suicide and make the Alliance win early, which makes the Reavers not win, but that’d be playing against their own wincon. Mass roleclaims can break this game very quickly if they have the 6c:3r:2a:1o distribution that I originally guessed, so I’ll be optimistic and guess we’re looking at 7c:2r:2a:1o, or maybe the former version with a bunch of village protection abilities that will… not at all help when the elims seize control of the exe once PM organization begins. *panic* Crew, I'd save one PM for later in the round in case they're actually needed. Village Phychic, if you want to remove a kill from the game, I’ll put it out there that you can reveal your identity and let the Operative shoot you. :D. Oh, and hi, new people. Thanks for joining, Tiea, Walin!
  20. Archer
    I can make it twelve. The 23rd, 24th, and 25th and busy days for me, because I have a lot of baking to do for my Koloss Head-Munching Day celebrations, among other commitments. RP character is Owl Sity, who plays the piano very well but only knows one song. Usual Shard name is Archer.
  21. Archer
    Good! XD. It's smart to always be suspicious, just make sure to get some rest sometime between parsing every possible outcome. I can't help but feel like Mat really wanted me to win. 3 of 4 distros had me as an elim, then I ended up with a kill, an extra life, and a win just for surviving. Naturally, I died very quickly :P. Thanks for trying Mat. It was a fun game. And shoutout to the elims for winning despite everything we had in our arsenal. Especially you, Mage! Congrats on your first elim win. Araris, your risk tolerance is insane by the way. Telling coinshots to shoot inactives and regularly bussing your teammates.... The whole time my gut was pointing to you being evil, but you had enough comments and votes that were so incredibly dangerous for an elim to make that I couldn't bring myself to pursue it all the way. That's on me for underestimating you. GG, all. And thanks for IMing, Elandera.
  22. Archer
    Rule One of being an elim is Always kill Mat early. So I'd be required to bus you :P. I mean technically you were the only villager to successfully use an action. So your contributions were helpful! :D. But inactivity burned you, because you didn't have any credibility and it let us control the narrative. Spectating isn't going to help that though. I invite you to try again as a player and get some practice figuring out what the village mindset is and which instincts you have are valid and which are misleading. You're going to be wrong a lot, but if you're wrong in a villagery way, your team can get a read on you, and you might be able to compare your thinking to other's to spot who is faking their reasoning. Everyone wins less than half their village games though, so don't be discouraged if it takes a while to learn how to win. I'm also curious about that
  23. Archer
    Yeah, I meant to switch from you Mat, but then the morning was incredibly quiet and by the time I got started an end-of-round post that would have probably moved my vote, the round was over. I forgot that MST is now only 2 hours apart from EST, not 3, because of the Daylight Savings Time change. Apologies for the mix-up, Ed Venture. Strategically, it was apparently good that I didn't kill Szeth, but since they were alive in the LG, they were going to be the target instead. I actually thought it was a good strategy. The flaw in the execution was not drawing strong conclusions from it to build a wagon of support until it was too late in the round. But it was a challenge to react to naturally, so kudos to ya. EDIT: I think you voted a perfect game. Good job Thanks for running this, TUA, Devo. It's hard to comment on balance because you had to factor in the fact that C2 was exlo. I feel like we got lucky not being kill blocked or scanned C1, and that role claims would have been difficult to defend against, but again, it was a small game. I will suggest though that the elim powers be obtained in the round immediately after they kill their target, not after a round's delay. Only two of the abilities were useful to us, and one of us couldn't use them because we were submitting the NK, so the extra limitation made it a fairly useless mechanic in this situation. I'd also change the wincon to outnumber, so that the EoD could still be an ace in the hole, but we wouldn't have to play it out so long that it's obvious who is on which side. and finally, DANNNNNNNNNNNNNEX YOU DIDN'T SUBMIT THE KILL?????? *concern* Nah, it's all good. Pleasure to be your teammate again! Is this the second or third time? Either way, it was an adventure. And good game all. If you want a laugh, feel free to read the elim doc. We tried a very.... unorthodox strategy. Shoutout to the overlords for allowing it
  24. Archer
    Hehe. Finally, my arch nemesis has been slain! Does the fact that Elantris fell mean there was never an Elantrian of Death in play? If so, I'd end it here. If not, I'd play it out. EDIT: There's two possibilities here. 1. The Elantrian of Death is not in play. The elims will both vote on a villager so that they will at least tie, which results in no exe. They can then use the NK to win in two rounds. 2. The Elantrian of Death is in play. The village needs the EoD to shoot an elim. The elims have the bodyguard ability this round, so one of them will be protected. The EoD also needs to beat the 50% chance of Aonic failure. IF they succeed, they must not be the one NKed because the next round, it's 1v1, and the elim will force the tie and use the NK. So you have to win three coinflips to force the tie game. Only one of those is truly random though, so we could play out the round for the mind game opportunities. EDIT: Mint seems sus
  25. Archer
    Well this changes things Illwei
×
×
  • Create New...