Archer
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I'm not a witch!, said ookla the paranormal Much appreciated! Although having slept on it, I absolutely understand why people would get bad gut feelings about me this game. That said, I still find some of the lines of attack to be framed suspiciously, but hopefully I'll get to unpack that tonight. Szeth It'd be a bad strategic idea to build a CW on someone who is voting for me right now, because I think I have a better chance of getting one of them to drop their votes than I do of building a four vote wagon. If someone wants to surprise me and offer some flexibility, I'd +1 a two person wagon on someone I actually suspect, but for now I think I'm best off adding to the Mage offensive. It's a long shot that they're evil, but if we do kill them, at least the elims will be forced to make an analyzable NK.
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I also think it's bad form to ask someone to bluetext. As a followup question though, when is it good practice to lie about RL stuff? To use a specific example, I remember playing in a game where someone was lurking near rollover, didn't say anything, and then started the new round by saying something like the oop, I just woke up and by the time I was ready to post it was already the top of the hour. But based on what I read in the elim doc after the game, it was clear that they'd been lurking for a while and they'd made that story up just to avoid suspicion. I remember being a little disappointed that that was the case, but also thinking that that's not really breaking any rules. I've always just taken people at their word when they've said stuff like that, assuming that people find it bad form to lie in those situations using an RL excuse. Is that the general assumption or am I just gullible? :P. -
No, I think you've correctly identified me as an elim. :P. (For legal reasons, that's sarcasm, by the way.) I prefer a bad take to no take, but from my end, it's been clear that you've been off about everything so far so... :P. Sart's vote I understand, Danex could go either way. I think you're my second sus right now. Araris is after, since I feel like they're sitting on their easy Sart vote. But I likely wouldn't pursue that very far unless it sticks tommorow. Kas is a trust, for being appropriately wary, but not voting for me. :P. I've actually stopped doing that of late, unless I have a gambit suggestion. I'd prefer to leave stuff like saying when exlo is unsaid as a freebie if someone doesn't know what to say for their first post, then to offer some general rules related ideas for discussion. This time it was asking if anyone had thoughts about what roles the feruchemics might have, which I did offer a few ideas on, then left open to the group if anyone wanted to chime in. I have been playing more concisely and lightheartedly this game, and maybe that's the standard for D1 votes. I apologize if you think it's jerkish. Just be wary of mistaking elim panic for v!me not liking having a single track D1 that they know is a bad one. Without a second viable option, this doesnt even tell us the elims had a preference during the votes.
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Illwei: V!Archer would make actual evidence-based arguments Szeth: You right, V!Archer would do proper evidence-based analysis Also Szeth: There's not enough evidence to give takes on You see my problem. :P. Okay, I genuinely need to get some work done now so I'll catch y'all this evening. It was the >:) face, wasn't it. What if I made it <]:D nice man in a party hat
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What's the opposite of task failed successfully? Where you succeed at doing a thing but that thing backfires... To clarify. I'm trying to rebuttal Illwei's accusation by arguing that I'm working with very little in the way of meaningful discussion from everyone but Araris and Kas, who I didn't get evil reads from. There's not a lot but half-baked ideas to throw out. It's too early in the game to go hard on me for doing that because I doubt that besides sussing me, you could come up with much better based on legitimate premises. Who's your second sus and why? But I have been making real arguments, they just require reading into. See previous post about Szeth, who I am sussing for asking lots of questions that I felt I'd answered, possibly to appear engaged without pushing their own ideas. And the line asking Danex for an opinion so I'd know if they want to pile on a bad Sart wagon, or if they want to avoid being connected to that, presumably by voting for me or Araris. I'll be disappointed if the reason, "it's not much evidence, but it's all we've got right now," becomes the rationale behind exing the person with the highest post count, because that's a bit of a cop out D1. There's a reason we've got nothing else. So I'll ask you, Szeth , the same question. Who is your second choice, and why? If we're past the point of throwing out ideas like what might the feruchemical team have etc, let's throw random accusations out and see what comes of it. Sart Just to head this line of attack off early, pregame I did allude to the fact that I'd be playing less intensely than usual. It's exam week for me so I'm not laying things out as clearly as I normally would, because I don't have the brainpower to dedicate to that. Edit: oh hey, missed some posts. Join me on Szeth, kassss, see what happens >:) Also, I took a linguistics class this year, so I know what garden path is. Yay. My rebuttal to that is again, brain is on random BS, go! mode, because I believe that works better on D1 than focusing on individual impregnability, which is what my usual approach is based on. Plus it's easier.
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My first take made me lean one way. When I found an equally compelling reason to lean the other way, which was the alternative interpretation, I ended up back in the neutral middle. You misspelled provocative. :P. They've been living up to their Ookla name so far. Maybe I'm trying to work my way up to an Araris-like reputation so I can get away with them. :(. Actually it was supposed to tell me about three people, and I haven't gotten elim reads off of any of them for it, so it was a bit of a flop. But I'll still sus this vague statement anyway. :P. But I'll plus one asking Danex for an opinion. I was going to vote on you just now, but I changed my mind and I'm still on the Sart train and craving validation. Thoughts?
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Excuse me while I google a word real quick. :P. The point I was trying to make to Illwei was that you could frame it using the same logic as her and I are both evil teammates, and because v!Illwei knows we aren't, then the logic isn't great. That felt like the right level of response that the broadside merited. If I was an elim, my teammate would probably be Sart because I'd be playing the reverse physiology game to shrink the wagon on them by making it seem too easy. As a villager though I was more interested in seeing how Araris and Kas reacted, and I find it notable that Araris didn't at all. I disagree, because if they were in the elim doc gleefully scheming, the conversation would align their energies! Or maybe keeping up with two conversations was very draining for Illwei... hmmmm I said that mostly jokingly but now that I've written it, it's made me rethink my previous read there.
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Or. It's an Illwei-Archer team. :P. I really thought I'd get called out for badly distancing with Araris, not Szeth, so that's interesting.
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Random guess: Szeth-Illwei not e-e because their vibes are too different. Speaking of guesses, I think it'd be worth looking at the usual Feruchemical roles and guessing what the elim team might have at their disposal. Probably worst case scenario is some kind of gold ferring. We've had Iron Ferring vote manips before. Zinc scanners are a thing. Feel free to spitball. Sart
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Ahh, it’s that glorious time of year when I struggle to log into my account. (:. Please just call me Archer, that’s easier for everyone. The line in the rules, “only alignments are revealed upon death”, implies that individual players have more that could be revealed about them. From that line alone, we pretty much know that there’s roles in the game. Looking at Mat’s QF55, the roles he used were Coinshot (one-shot killer), Thug (tank a kill), roleblocker, vote adder, and person who can see who someone targeted with their actions. I imagine this game probably has a similar set. I suggest we avoid revealing our roles, but offer unsolicited advice every round about how someone with one of the usual array of roles might use them. For example, if you’re an alignment scanner, I encourage you to bank on the possibility of a bodyguard role and reveal any alignments you get promptly. Knowing who is a villager is almost as good as knowing who is evil. * Brawnze was in a daze as he entered the town, pulling a pile of bronze shavings on a sled behind him. There were so many- he stopped to try to figure out what the large, four legged creature in front of him was. What had the Old Stories called them? Horse. So many horse. “Brawnze has brainze. Brawnze made bronze,” he shouted at the people milling about. “Come look at bronze! Bronze good.” He smiled, ready to transform the Loud People's lives. A drop of blood trickled out of his lips. He spit out his snack. "Note to Brawnze. Bronze make bad meal for Brawnze."
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I'll join as Brawnze, who was raised in a primitive, insular community that very recently discovered how to make bronze. Feeling morally bound to share their revolutionary discovery with the world, he was dispatched as an ambassador to Luthadel. Expect a low post rate from me, and heavy reliance on gut instead of time-intensive analysis.
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Huzzah! Finally got to pocket Mat in a game. :P. Good work, Danex, I enjoyed being your teammate. The real clue was my bad math. It's my most reliable tell, smh You were supposed to stay suspecting Mat-Lahilt, and those two were supposed to suspect you and Az, and then Dannex and I could throw two votes wherever felt right, but you went and messed that all up. :P. We committed to that Mat exe, and when it didn't go through, we got really lucky you took the fall for it instead of us. Also, you saying surely I'd be NKed put me in a very awkward position, so good work there. Sorry to everyone we killed. Especially Mage, I felt bad about that one. I was originally hoping to choose all the NKs based on who voted for us, because that's a nice clean way to go about it, but people paid a little more attention to it than I expected, so that changed quickly. Anyway, y'all were a pleasure to play with and I hope to see you in future games. Thanks for running this, Illwei, Devo. I think two elims was the right call. If the elims have to make a kill, I'd like the village to as well, but I get where you're coming from. The kill set-up was a lot more of a hinderance to the village than I thought it would be, and provided an interesting challenge to work through. Overall, good game, all.
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Time for whatever this is! (Spoilered so Illwei doesn't think it's vote-related greening) NK: Nobody -Let’s look at this from three perspectives. Last Night, from the elim perspective, I’m a likely Mat voter, Araris thinks Mat and Lahilt are villagers. Dannex thinks it’s Mat-Azmine. Az is a question mark. Lahilt is a question mark. 1. Mat-Lahilt are e-e. Araris is an available ally, but won’t believe I’m evil, so you must kill me and implicate Az and Dannex as teammates. But if you kill me, it implicates Mat, who is still taking heat from the TJ kill. So you leave me alive and push… an Araris exe. Seems like a waste of a potential ally, but it works in practice because he’s suspicious. They’d have to sell Az and Danex on it, maybe indicate a me-Araris team to avoid alienating those two voters. What they’ve actually gone for is Araris-Danex, which has worked out, but I don’t think they’d have known it would work yesterday. It’s fuzzy because it has worked out, but I’m not sure they’d draw it up like this. 2. Araris-Danex are e-e. So Mat and Lahilt are cleared by Araris and I’m fairly trusted. I think the problem they encounter is if you kill me, you have to then come up with a two-man team that convinces the third person you’re right, and Az is unpredictable. Splitting it by Lahilt-Mat v Az-Araris-Danex has the most potential, but Araris already said he trusts those two. Lahilt-Az v Mat-Araris-Danex won’t work because Mat trusts Lahilt. Mat-Az v Lahilt-Araris-Danex might work, but Lahilt seems inclined to trust Mat. So faced with no good set-ups there, you don’t kill me, and instead… well if you kill Mat or Lahilt, I’ll know I’m wrong there and won't vote for them. If you kill Az though, you can push Mat-Lahilt. That probably would have worked actually, but then I might ask questions like why not kill someone who was voting for Mat last round? And Araris had already said they were clear. Going back on a read is fine, but he seemed to quickly think that it was obvious they were cleared, so I can see him not trusting the village to make what he saw as an illogical read to end the game. In this situation, I can see them opting to forgo the advantage of the 3:2 ratio in favor of keeping Az around as either a vote or a suspect. If you assume I’m voting for Mat, then Danex can too, and if you put some pressure on Az, perhaps they’d default to sheeping the majority and give you that extra vote on Mat you needed last round. Araris can hammer at the end for the win. Or if Az’s vote never gets there, you can stay pushing him and hope to get Mat and Lahilt voting alongside you rather than on you. This ended up making more sense to me as an explanation for what the elims were thinking than the Mat-Lahilt set-up. 3. Araris-Az are e-e. Nah, they’d make the kill if they were planning on bussing out of the gate. They’d need every kill they can get. Maybe Araris wanted to give Az an excuse to vote Mat and was counting on Danex and I sticking to Mat, but I doubt it. I think somebody is bussing right now. It's just not you. :P. Oh, speak of the devil, Dannex I have unlocked infinite n's (just kidding, I don't know how math works)
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This is a bad argument because the elims couldn't coordinate D1 and we thought there was three elims when guessing that. But that's actually good news for you because Danex voted TJ D1, not Mage with you. :P. I suspect the elims voted together yesterday to try to punch through a kill. I'd be more confident they did that than that they split D1. I don't follow Danex's logic for their vote, which makes me think it's made up to arbitrarily support the Az wagon. Namely this is a big red flag argument to me. The problem with voting Araris/Danex though is it indicates we almost lost last cycle and that gives me feels. Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmokay. Araris
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Adding to what Az said, the only way we don't lose is a no-exe or exing an elim. Miskill is still bad. My initial read is that e!you would submit the kill after killing TJ, but maybe that's what you want us to think. If we don't kill today, we can I remember Az talking about the no kill option but, isn't that kinda obvious? Where I'm confused is Lahilt being likely village is because he can only be elim with one person - Mat. But we're only looking for one pairing that works, and that'd one that clicks. I need to reread to check for not e-e behavior, I'll probably do that tomorrow, but your backing off of that fairly easily last round seemed odd considering you were ready to exe them at exlo. Interesting you should bring that up because my stance last Night was designed to decrease my odds of being killed. E!Mat looks guiltier because I was voting for him, and e!Araris (or e!not on Mat's team) wants me alive because I'll mix. I don't think I can draw many conclusions from my not being killed, except for a team without one of you two on it probably would have killed me, but I'm assuming that's why I'm still here. Right now I'm split between it's a Mat-Lahilt team, or its Araris-Dannex/Az, with Dannex the more likely pairing because of Araris' vote today. Like I said, I really gotta reread. My gut is telling me it's the obvious answer, but I'll be a smart boi and reevaluate my thinking at exlo this game. :P. Soo E!you isn't expected to kill Mat and after last Night, Mat is still alive... Huh. :P. If you killed v!Mat, you'd send both Danex and my votes floating, and that's dangerous territory. I'm not convinced you'd have taken the shot. That said, I think both you and Mat would have made some sort of kill. So I'll pencil in Team Low Profile as my third (tinfoil) option: Dannex-Az.
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Who died? Also Araris, can you walk me through your thought process where you cleared Mat and Lahilt again? That happened a little quickly for my liking.
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I'll tell you next Day @Illwei, would they be replaced or killed?
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Well that was anti-climatic. Az, do you plan on voting next Day? Friendly reminder to because if we don't get a kill through the elims will win with the subsequent NK. Agreed on the first point, but I'm not sold on the second. I don't think they had the votes to push an exe through on you, but if we assume Lahilt thought it was like an hour or so to rollover, they could have been just vote splitting. Worst case scenario for them was Az showing up and sealing the deal by sheeping the majority, so creating a second viable wagon could have been a ploy to scuttle the exe. It reads as more e!Mat-e!Lahilt play to me. I'm a little paranoid that will help the elims choose their ideal kill target. But also y'all pretty much know where I'm at already so it's not too big a deal. -Mat-Lahilt still seems viable to me -Anything with Az explains this, if you assume Mat is village Okay really the problem here is we had clear vote splitting so we can't say Mat was being hammered. If he was, Araris-Dannex would be the pairing. If we assume both Araris and Mat are village, Lahilt is village because they didn't kill Mat and Dannex and Az are evil. Which explains the failure to kill Mat. Araris-Lahilt could explain the Lahilt vote on Araris because it's distancing at a time when it doesn't matter, but then they'd have just killed Mat. So unless Mat is evil, Lahilt is village. Based on the votes, e!Mat's only other teammate could be Az. Nah, I'm committed here. Mat will be my vote tomorrow.
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Now I’m trying to decide if e!you is trying to pocket me :P. I keep coming back to the Night when neither Az nor Danex were on. Somebody else had to submit the NK, and I trust Araris right now. At least he's cast a vote, compared to pretty much everyone else who I suspect are waiting for a villager to vote for a villager so they can pile on and maybe force a mix. The two people who were on were Mat and Lahilt, and Mat defending Lahilt supports that theoretical pairing. I don't give any value to Mat offering to vote Lahilt today because this is a bussing situation. I really doubt it's two of Dannex, Lahilt, and Az, based on the people they targeted with the kills. So I'd really prefer to go for Mat today. That said, it'd be nice to see where the other votes are going. I don't want to fail to kill because people forget to vote.
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Yeah, honestly I was just hoping you'd copy my vote and I'd know for sure someone isn't your teammate. :P. Danex Mat
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It's a close call between them and Az, and I think my vote will stick on one of them in the end, but Danex seemed pretty flakey last cycle, sheeping the main wagons.
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Seems like we should start with a vote on Dannex, what say y'all.
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Archer-Lahilt not e-e because I didn't know that. :P. I'll clarify to there's been a bias towards suspecting people with unfamiliar playstyles. At least on my part
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Surely if we murder a third new player, this time it'll be the right call. :P. I think I'm going to vote Mat over Lahilt next round solely because I'm starting to feel bad about this trend. I'm pretty sure that's the elim pairing anyway, based on Mat's defense of them last round. If there was three elims, I suspect Illwei would have shortened the Night to 12 hours instead of rounding up to 36. With three, everything going forward would be a formality because for them, parity is a functional win. So I'm going to assume this is a winnable game and that there's a 5v;2e ratio, soon to be 4v;2e. That's exlo.
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