Elenion
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Everything posted by Elenion
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Yup, Reckoners RP will do that sort of thing to you.
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IIRC the number displayed caps off at 99, because I've heard of Sanderson Elimination GMs (who have to be added to all game-related PMs) logging on and seeing it. It's been a while, though, and so maybe one of the site developers could give you something a little more concrete.
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The Longest Thread (Misadventures)
Elenion replied to ElephantEarwax's topic in Forum Games & Random Stuff
Because apart from Butt and Tresting, Dilaf decided that he needed an upgraded set of abilities, and that of course would require sacrifices. -
@Archer Your sig just caught me, dang it!
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What if you just did it with a thread, public ledger? It would make payoffs harder to hide, but it would be easy to do. Have a person add interest every week or so, and every transfer of money requires a public OK from the recipient and the donor.
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I'd take the shorter Night, but an extended Day is good too.
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Right now the best info lynch would probably be Fifth, because then we could get reads on CadCom and Rathmaskal, plus any other players that Fifth interacted with. However, Fifth is a good analyst, and I don't think I'm willing to kill them for the sake of info alone. Maybe for the points against them, but not solely as an info lynch. Right now I'm going to hold my ground on HH being suspicious, but if I don't get any support in the next 11 or so hours I'll switch my vote to someone else with an analysis-based vote on them (right now Fifth or Eternum), because I have to work from then until turnover.
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My read on Araris was initially based on him seeming "loose". It just didn't strike me as elim-y how he voted on Bugsy, took it off, and then dropped a retaliatory vote on him. It was far too high-profile for a player whose team would be absolutely dependent on their survival. (Yes, it does turn out that we were dependent on his survival, but I had no clue that he was Buttercup. My reasoning was bad but it led to a correct read. XD) He didn't make any big posts defending himself, so my read on him intensified that he was just a vanilla or low-power villager. I defended him from Bugsy not knowing what he was, thinking he was a random villager getting accused by a possible-elim.
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@Elbereth You said in your post that you'd be willing to lynch Eternum for his suspicions last Day, but I find HH more suspicious based on his position in the bandwagon and the reasoning he gave for it. Why do you find Eternum more suspicious than HH? (I'd ping Randuir with a similar question but he's probably going to cover HH in his analysis soon.)
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I'm Elenion and I've been clean for... oh wait, Cosmere secrets. Yeah. I'm not a big fan of Shallan. She moves the plot and all that, but she really just needs to get a hold of her issues. I also did not really like Edgedancer. The "plot" was more like something out of a kids show, plus death. And before the book even started Lift basically saw Gawx murdered in front of her, but she doesn't seem to have gotten much maturity out of it. In Warbreaker I was rooting for Blushweaver to get all the Lifeless passcodes and then backstab everyone Wayne is really not that funny. Except for that scene with MeLaan on the train. That one was an exception.
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The first thing I should do is clarify I am not Roberts, nor is Roberts I I did not wish for Araris to die Only because of a gut read of mine (Whew, one paragraph of iambic pentameter and I am done. Yes, I know I used a non-Shakespearean rhyming pattern. ) I am not Wesley/Dread Pirate Roberts and I've had no PM contact with Araris. I defended him because had a good read on him and a bad read on Bugsy, so I followed through with that. It looks like my read on Araris was right--I'm not really sure about the one on Bugsy. I'm getting a villagey vibe from his reaction to the news about Araris. Ditto with Fifth Scholar, but I didn't suspect Fifth yesterday. If Bugsy comes up again in my analysis I'll bring this debate back up, but bashing about opportunism right now isn't really getting us anywhere. I'm going to take a look at that Araris bandwagon again. With the lynch being so volatile and not settling on a target until the very end of the cycle, I expect at least one voter on Araris to be an elim looking to solidify the vote. That assumes there was an elim with a vote on them, but there were enough different people accruing votes that I think it's a safe assumption. Eternum: Gets the first vote on Araris, but rereads later and has an opportunity to take it off, but retains it. Elbereth points out that he suspected all three of us at the center of the issue yesterday at some time or another, but I'm not reading anything elim-y in it. It just seems like he's looking for a way to spot an elim in the bunch, and different things he's looking at are giving different results. Solid neutral read, because he could be faking, but he could also be village. Mr. Doctor: Third vote on Araris. This and HH's vote are in the positions that I'm most used to seeing elims in: 3rd and 4th. He clearly chooses a side on the issue (supporting Bugsy because he didn't see anything wrong with Bugsy's post). He justified voting on Araris over me because I was contributing more (for which I am grateful). I don't use contribution to tiebreak votes unless everything else is mostly the same, but that's a matter of priorities. Gun to head I'd say he's village, but this isn't as solid of a read as I have on Doc (see below). HH: Second-to-last vote on Araris. I mentioned above that 3rd and 4th vote in a wagon is elim territory. He decided to vote on one of [Bugsy, Araris, me] because we were the most vocal players, which I'm not really a fan of particularly because he didn't even really take a side on the arguments presented, other than he said Araris' points looked hypocritical. He said I was a bit weird in my arguments (didn't say what, so didn't take a side on any of the specific issues), but then put me at about equal with Bugsy in his summary sentences, which seems strange to me because he didn't mention any suspicion of Bugsy before then. He could be our man. Doc: Second vote on Araris, which is a bit early for an elim in my opinion. He voted to create a tie, which have been helpful in past games, and he gave a solid reason not to vote for anyone else already with a vote, plus pointed out that Araris was being very gung-ho. I'm getting a village vibe from Doc. Fifth: The last vote on Araris. The lynch was already decided when Fifth piled on, and Fifth gave good reasoning for it, so I don't think Fifth was an elim looking to solidify the vote. Maybe they're an elim for unrelated reasons--I don't get much hard evidence for villageness from their post--but this vote doesn't mark them as elim, and I have a good toneread on them. Maybe tied with or just above Mr. Doctor on my trust scale. So on my trust scale (1 almost certain elim, 9 almost certain village) I'd put Doc at 6.5, Fifth at 6, Mr. Doctor at 5.5, Eternum at 5 neutral, and HH at 4. Voting HH, because he joined in at a good time to ensure the bandwagon on Araris didn't break up (4th vote of 5, and about 2-2.5 hours before turnover), and did so after only considering a small portion of the players and not taking sides on the individual issues discussed.
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If Roadwalker was telling true Max won't have any pill-giving to do So unless you know of a different claimant To the role of Max, but in thread abstain-ed Max is dead, pills are no more And mostly dead is dead for sure
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The elims must be so thrill-ed Our own vig role we kill-ed And now it looks like they took Max In the race for info we're sitting dead last We need to get our game on, quick Our else our defeat will surely stick
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I wasn't meaning to use Randuir's arguments as a setup, but I see how it could be perceived that way. And no, I never have been shy about that sort of thing. @Sart I don't think it would be a good idea to vote on Roadwalker. It's true that Max could make things difficult for us if he decided to help the elims, but voting on him and threatening him with the lynch are what's going to make him want to work with the elims in the first place. I know you wouldn't have voted on Road unless you were fairly sure we could get an advantage out of it, so what was the advantage?
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Shree King Eels was in general unhappy to find that the priest Araris had been killed. He hadn't participated in it--who knew if Araris had still possessed the knife he had pulled (or at least he thought it had been Araris who had yelled at him earlier), and Eels still found Dread Pirate Cummerbund more suspicious. Once they figured out if Araris was loyal or not, that might help them. If he had been disloyal, that would put Eels in a bad spot for defending him, but at least it was one fewer of the prince's guards running around. If he had been loyal, it would be regrettable, but one fewer knife-wielding priest is never a bad thing. Plus, Eels was still hurt by being called a serial adulterer. Serial implied more than once, and of course Eels was not an adulterer, period. To be an adulterer you actually had to have been in a relationship... "Before you all killed him, he pulled a knife on me. Did anyone see the knife?" Wait... he had actually been able to say knife! What about the other word? "He's dead, so he couldn't have had an extra wife." Nope, the word life was still coming out as wife. Inconceivable!
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His post was carefully worded so it didn't look like he was casting suspicion, but as an elim I've used wording like that to justify a future vote. As village I'm one of our more aggressive players, so as elim I duplicate that to be consistent. Elim!Len is the type to go out looking for mislynches, and Bugsy's move is the a set-up for that sort of playstyle. I know it because as an elim I do it. Bugsy's accusation of Araris didn't put him on the vote tally, but by making a NAI or slightly-village move look evil he threw suspicion Araris' way and set himself up for a vote later if an Araris lynch got going, without putting him in a position to take flak if Araris flipped village.
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Eelz looked back over his shoulder to see if he was being followed. What he saw surprised him: it appeared that he had lost the priest, but Hobbert and Senfalo were tailing him. They wust think that I'm doing somewing imwortant! But aww I'm doing is puwwing some diswance beween me and the pwiest with the wife! Eelz stopped. "Hewwo fewwows! Having fun stowming the castle! I think I'm wost. Whewe is the wedding that we awe supposed to be cwashing again.?" Maybe this could get him an excuse to join their group, safety in numbers and all that.
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I'm generally of the opinion that lynching very-actives D1 is not as good as lynching less-actives, ceteris paribus, but actives should be lynched if they are more suspicious. And as for why I thought it was opportunistic, but that my vote was not, you expressed it very well here: This is exactly what you did: you got on, saw that Araris had said something questionable, and called attention to it. As you said, elims have no incentive to vote this early. You did not put a vote down on Araris, but you provided yourself with a way to vote on him later. Your statement made him into a "target of opportunity" that an elim!Bugsy could vote on. My vote differs from yours for two reasons. I didn't do the opportunistic set-up for a later vote; I put my vote down right away. I also didn't think you had good reason to vote on Araris, but I had reason to vote on you because you were taking something that Araris did that I was reading village on, and then spun it in a way that made him look guilty. That looks elim-y, so I voted on you, with that vote also moving the lynch away from Devotary (who is being voted on for no in-game reason).
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I'm going to jump in and defend Araris here, because I'd actually put it as a village indication. Something like this has come up in multiple games before: IIRC it's called the Ripple Effect because it was RippleGylf who one game messed up the names of the village and elim teams and everyone thought it was a slip. An elim is more likely to scrutinize their posts for accuracy before posting than a villager is, so it's more likely that a villager would make an RP slip than an elim. Bugsy, because I agree with Rand that you looked very opportunistic there, and because I'm not seeing much better stuff to vote off of at the moment. Araris' post is NAI at worst and slightly village at best.
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Wait... @Cadmium Compounder why would you vote on Straw if you have no clue as to his alignment? I'm not really getting an elim-y vibe from it per se, but it just seems strange.
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Just PM me a copy of your new PFP and I can make it green if you want.
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I absolutely loved the EU and Original Trilogy references. One in particular that I enjoyed was Han saying he made the Kessel Run in 12 parsecs, but later telling Chewie that he rounded down, because IIRC in A New Hope he says he did it in less than 12. Total Han move right there. I thought The Maw was well-done, as was Han's time in the army. In the train sequence the marauders seemed a bit underpowered, but that work that their leader did with the vibro-axe (or at least it looked like a vibro-axe) made up for it. What I didn't really like was that the end was a bit predictable. The whole fake-coaxium-is-the-real-coaxium thing got me, but I called both Beckett's and Qira's betrayals from a mile away. Beckett dropped the cliche "don't trust anybody" line early on, so I immediately called it that he was going to backstab Han in a climactic moment, and Qira had backstabbed too many people to not backstab Han in the end. I also called that Han was going to shoot Beckett first, because it was the next step in his character development, but it was satisfying enough that I didn't care that I had called it. There's one big plot hole that bugs me: Lando's droid attempted to free all of the slaves on Kessel, but they had no way off-planet. With no escape from inevitable reinforcements, even if they had killed every single guard, they would have just been slaughtered in the end. Where's the freedom in that?
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I don't think it would be a good idea. One of the primary advantages of a vig-kill is that it can hit the elims when and where they least expect it. If you use it to double-tap the lynchees, you make it easily predictable. The advantage to killing the lynchees is that any elim who would be lynched would be guaranteed not to come back, but I don't think that's worth giving up a surprise kill that could take an elim out of the doc for a cycle (mostly dead can't talk in docs) and potentially take them out of the entire game.
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@Bugsy @randuir I think you guys are confused about Max's win con numbers. The original rules had 3 villagers and 1 elim, and Steel changed it to 4 and 2 at the end of signups.
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@Coop772 What does your character look like, for RP purposes? I need to figure out how Eels will respond. @randuir I don't think I'm usually in the habit of projecting the number of cycles before LyLo, except in that one Perfect State game when the field of players was really small. I don't even think such a projection would be possible in this game, with the amount of resurrection involved. That said, you are right that I didn't project a number of elims like I usually do. This game I'm fairly sure we have 5 elims, because we have 27 players, 26 if you discount Miracle Max, and so both the Square Root Rule and the 20% Rule give us 5.
