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DeTess

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Everything posted by DeTess

  1. DeTess
    Since I failed to realise my ambitions last time, I'll happily take another shot at it this time.
  2. DeTess
    Nah, you should trust your own analysis, even if you get it wrong a lot, because without it you've got almost nothing to hold on to in this game. Never trust the analysis of anyone else though, especially those that are very analytical like Aman or me, as we can easily be evil or completely wrong. I'd also like to apologize for you for the extreme amounts of suspicion and paranoia I had for you. Especially in the late game I'd narrowed the false fielder down to you or CadCom, and my gut was certain it was you. On the other hand, going after BR was also partly based on recommendations from my gut, so I guess it wasn't completely wrong. From the spec doc: So yeah, now you know all those warning signs are completely useless and shouldn't be heeded Anyway, Good game everyone, and thanks to Fith and Elandera for running it!
  3. DeTess
    But yeah, apart from some frustration aimed at myself for clearing some people too quickly and not taking my list for possible false-fielders to it's conclusion, I'd like to say that both sides played pretty well this game
  4. DeTess
    Okay, so which elim was the other one in the fielders doc? I think it'd have to have been cadcom, as it wasn't Sart and it didn't really seem like Aman. And I'm pretty sure I called Aman being Padan Fain. Or at least I almost asked the GM's how much Irony had played a role in determining who was who. And you'd think I'd have learned by now that being 2nd or so on an elim lynch doesn't mean someone was confirmed good, and from the initial list of suspects for the false fielder only Furami and cadcom where left... Edit: oops, hadn't read correctly, apparently Aman wasn't Padan Fain after all. That'd have been so beautifully ironic given his RP though...
  5. DeTess
    Alright, I don't have time to do an in-depth review, but I can do a quick review of who I'd prefer role!Rand to hit. As I've said before, I consider Steeldancer, cadcom and Furami pretty much cleared (in that order from most to least cleared). IIRC we also know, or at least heavily suspect, that Aginor has been somewhat active (I remember someone claiming to have lost their vote while they forgot to defend, but I can't find it now), so Aginor is probably not among the low activity/pinch-hit players, leaving Amanuensis, Mark IV and Karnatrheon. Of these 3 I'd be most suspicious of Mark IV and least of Karnatheon, so I'd like to see Rand hit Mark IV if at all possible.
  6. DeTess
    You actually had me doubt myself for a second, but I looked it up:
  7. DeTess
    @Amanuensis, Anyone can have multiple roles. Aginor could, for example, also be a Fal Dara warrior, an Emond's Fielder and be in Moiraine's circle. For example, Both Devotary and Ark had multiple roles. Edit: also, completely forgot to mention this; Happy Koloss head-munching day everyone! What do you all think is the best sauce to serve Koloss head's with?
  8. DeTess
    Okay, I'm really lost now. Either the elim team is only 3 people, or it's something ridiculous like Cadcom, Furami, Karnatheon and Steeldancer. I might have time for some more analysis later this cycle, but I can't promise anything.
  9. DeTess
    Unfortunately, that is all I've got time for right now. I'm going to vote mr doctor as he fits in most teams, and because a number of his interactions (as outlined in my post above) look pretty fishy in hindsight.
  10. DeTess
    I'm going to do my best to go through all players on my suspicions list and compare their interactions. However, I can't guarantee I'll complete it today. Joe I'm starting off easy. Joe only has a single post (and STINK before that only had one as well). He voted on Mark following Aman's lead (and brought some reasons why he thought Aman was village), and expressed hesitance at voting for Drought because he hadn't been able to read through all his posts yet. This post is NAI, and more importantly, doesn't exclude him from being on the elim team with either Aman or Mark. The lynch had by then been solidified, so elim!joe could have voted to distance himself from elim!mark. His soft defense of Aman could have been an attempt from elim!joe to get into village!Aman's good books or help elim!Aman. karn karn Has made a lot of posts. It's less than 600 though, so I guess I've got that going for me. There is surprisingly enough not much in the way of links to other people. He read Doctor as village pretty early on in the game, but that's about it. Now for a quick intermezzo: @A Joe in the Bush, there could be 3 elims, but I'll assume 4 until proven otherwise. mr Doctor In this post he talks about being wary of Karantheon in response to a post by Mark. More interesting is his stated suspicion of Young Bard over his vote against BR, which he said was poorly justified, but at the same time he also said that the vote against him was a test of BR and steeldancer. This feels off to me, as if you believe someone has poorly justified their vote, then them flipping village wouldn't tell you much about the persons they where voting on because the vote was poorly justified. It seems like he's trying to bet on multiple horses at once, which makes me suspicious of him given young bard's and BR's alignments. D3 he listed Karnatheon as village, but being watched, and Mark IV as Neutral. nothing particularly interesting here apart from that and doesn't preclude him from being team-mates with either of these two. last day-cycle he shared some more player analysis. I think his read of Furami is of particular note,as he keeps open all possibilities, and then hinges it on the Droughtbrigner vote, which he later reiterates by stating that given how Drought flipped, Furami is more suspicious than himself. I don't see much in that would prevent him from being team-mates with anyone in my group of interest, but I can see the case against him a lot better now. Mark IV Interestingly enough, he'd thrown early shade at BR, which I'd forgotten about. He did that in a way that was supposed to make other people take a deeper look at BR, which generally would be a poor distancing tactic. There's also some early shade-throwing at Karnatheon. In both these cases he keeps all his options open, but his interaction with Karnatheon seems more specific and pointed than with BR. Apart from this, there's the whole discussion between him and Aman, which I've talked about a bit before. His post about BR has got me thinking again. it didn't really have a bite to it and it only came after someoen esle took a look at BR. However, because of the relative lack of bite it'd have been a poor distancing post, as it'd have been difficult to point back to and say 'hey look, I was definitely very suspicious of BR!'. On the other hand, he's asking people to take a closer look at BR, which is once again dangerous, because it increases the risk of someone finding something that could get her lynched without ti benefiting elim!mark much.
  11. DeTess
    Right, I actually forgot to list that combination. In addition to the 4 teams I already listed, there's mr doctor, joe, karnatheon and sart as an option when both aman and mark are village.
  12. DeTess
    Just spitballing here, but would it make sense to ask mat to claim at this point? His role can easily be confirmed and is not a dire threat to the elims.
  13. DeTess
    As you've seen, I did have something to say. Mostly, I let the elim put down what they want unless it's a direct attempt to frame me, and they extend me the same courtesy. Anyway, let's see if I can figure this game out (spoiler alert, I can't). There's 10 survivors, dropping me and steeldancer (because he's pretty much cleared by that attack) means that there's 8 suspects left. most likely 3-4 of these 8 are elims. I'm fairly certain Cadcom is village as well, given his early position on the BR train, and I feel similarly about Furami. Now, there's a couple more conclusions that can be made. First of all Amanuensis and Mark IV are pretty likely to not both be elims. They could both be village, but I'm not seeing an elim team with both of them given their most recent interactions. Furami has been going after mr Doctor for a while now, so I think they are unlikely to both be elims as well. Finally, I don't think Sart and Aman are both elims, given that Sart started a fairly early attack on Aman D4 for reasons that, while not particularly strong, would have made decent sense, especially if Aman had been active. Possible 4-man teams(in the spoiler): So, If I start working with the above restrictions, the first thing I notice is that there's only 1 4-man team that works with Amanuensis, and it includes Karnatheon, who I've been leaning village on for the entire game. The only 4-man team without Karnatheon is Mark IV, Sart, Mr doctor and a Joe in the bush. I'll be going through these teams in more detail in a bit to try and see if any of them don't actually work, or work particularly well interaction-wise.
  14. DeTess
    @Mark IV, I suspect the "you don't have permission" thing is causes by people linking to posts in the previous cycle before it gets merged into the main thread, resulting in a broken link.
  15. DeTess
    The village won't get the Emond's field Doc back, so don't try to dream of a world in which we do. Either I'm lying, and there's only elims left in there, or I'm speaking the truth, and I'll die the moment (by which I mean the cycle) the elim in there dies. Also, why is everyone suddenly back to 'Randuir might be an elim?' Why would I have started the lynch against BR when I could have gone after Drought instead in that cycle? To elaborate on Droughts question, if Drought had flipped elim, I'd be way more suspicious of Aman for trying to divert the vote away from Drought, while it'd have cleared mark who got in early on that vote. As it stands, it tilts the balance more in favor of Aman, as he tried to suggest another lynch when the village had a perfectly fine mislynch going.
  16. DeTess
    @Amanuensis, don't worry too much about not being very active due to real-life constrains. I understand that and it has been undermining my own ability to really contribute these last few cycles as well. I'm afraid I'm going to commit to the Droughtbringer vote. I don't have the time to do much of my own research, and Drought had been rubbing me wrong before. To quickly restate the case as I see it: He's a likely candidate for the False fielder and he's posting regularly, but has very little in the way of actual analysis (IE: he seemed somewhat active, but didn't really contribute (aka: flying under the radar)). This isn't that strong a case, but it's more than I've got on a lot of other people right now. In addition to the reasons for suspicion, his lynch could also help shed some light on the Mark vs Aman situation depending on how he flips. I should have time to do a thorough analysis past next day-cycle if we're still in the game then, and hope to be of more use then than I'm being now.
  17. DeTess
    I've done a quick reread of Aman's posts, and something stood out to me. It's already been mentioned that his lack of knowledge of the elims doesn't really clear him because BR was affecting the same lack of knowledge. However, with an elim doc at her back it was almost certainly a planned affectation (maybe not at first, but definitely a couple of cycles in) rather than actual lack of knowledge. Elim!Aman would have known that she'd done that, and I think he probably wouldn't have tried to use the same excuse after BR got lynched. Key word here being I think. As Aman could ahve gone through the same steps of reasoning I just did and then did it anyway to try and look innocent if someone came to this conclusion (We're what, 2 levels deep into an IKYK now?). I really wish Aman had been more active before, because then I would have a couple of cycles of voting pattern to look back through to get a better idea of where he stands. Right now, he's either Honest!village!Aman or Elim!Aman and I can hardly tell the difference when he's been very active and I'm fully awake, let alone right now. A vote will follow once I've had a shower and had some more time to think it over, but I'm leaning towards Drought right now. If we're not at Lylo it could actually shed some light on Aman and Mark whichever way he flips (Elim!drought looking worse for Aman as he seems to be angling for an alternative lynch, while village!drought would look bad for mark).
  18. DeTess
    So, that analysis I said I'd do if I had time today? I've been helping someone move today and am physically and mentally exhausted, so I won't have the time or energy to do that, sorry. That having been said, It's nice and horrifying to see Aman get into the swing of things. It's nice because I've been missing it, and horrifying because he's basically set up a head-to-head between himself and Mark IV, which is something I have seen Elim!Aman do before if we where at Lylo and an elim was at risk (MR21, for those who are curious). However, he's actually making a pretty good argument for why Mark is evil (If the math hadn't worked out against him in MR21, I'd probably have believed him then too though). So yeah, If at all possible, I'd really rather not pick between Mark IV and Aman right now. RE: defending, I think we should to that en-masse, because it means Moiraine will have an allignment scan with her vote manip (light-aligned players can't have their votes manipulated when defending). Edit: oops, nevermind. I thought Moiraine could move a vote, but she can only move a no-vote, so this'd only work if people both defended and didn't vote, which is unlikely. Rand's ability will only hit one of the remaining elims, so I don't think we should be making particular haste towards letting all rings fall.
  19. DeTess
    Yes, but not right now. I will be back before the end of the cycle and hopefully will be able to do some analysis before placing my vote.
  20. DeTess
    @FuramirionindThe reference I was talking about referred to how every book (or at least the first couple) starts with a variation on this: "The Wheel of Time turns, and ages come and pass. In one age, called the Third Age by many, a wind arose in the Blight. The wind was not a beginning; there are neither beginnings nor endings to the turning of the Wheel of Time. But it was a beginning." I made an allusion to it in an RP exchange with the false fielder, and the false fielder claimed to be unsure if this if this was a reference or not because they'd only read the first 100 pages of th eye of the world. I'm like 58% certain it's one of Steeldancer or Droughtbringer, but leaning towards Droughtbringer of the two. Overall writing style seems to match (but it's not a particularly strong match as I haven't found anything that seems particular to a specific person). I'm worried about not being dead though, as it suggests that the false fielder isn't particularly worried about me figuring them out. Unfortunately, I'll still be pretty busy today. I'll try to make some time for some more analysis later, but I'm afraid I can't make any promises. Edit: Everyone, please remember your defense actions. Last night's effective defense was only 3, which is way less than it should/could have been
  21. DeTess
    Quickly (and lately) checking in. I haven't had time to do the full analysis on figuring out the false Emond's fielder. As I've got little reason to expect to survive this night, I'll quickly share everything I've got on them so others could use that info. Has only read the first bit of the eye of the world (fairly certain about this one, it was worked naturally into a very early situation which involved a bit of RP and them missing an obvious reference to the winds starting off every book). Wasn't active in the doc for N1, but was active all other cycles. Checks in late in the cycle (suggesting either a USA time zone, or an attempt to fake one). Anything else would involve copying quotes from them from the doc, which I'm fairly certain I'm not allowed to do. Still, the above info could reduce the field of suspects significantly, but keep in mind that some of ti could be faked or staged (though I feel fairly confident about their lack of knowledge of WoT).
  22. DeTess
    I've quickly gone through Young Bard's posts, and his suspicion of BR seems genuine. It's a bit hard to tell Given that he hasn't posted that much, but he basically brought up the same argument as I used when I voted on BR last cycle, and his vote came early enough that the Lynch hadn't really been locked in against anyone yet.
  23. DeTess
    So, let's see. last cycle the second vote on BR was Cadcom, and it was placed without reservation or weasel-words at a time when the lynch was still completely open. Therefore I feel that Cadcom is pretty much cleared of being an elim. Furami added momentum to that lynch by placing a third vote, and combined with how he's invested in the game so far I'm fairly certain he's village now as well. I can't say the same about the votes that followed after that, because given how silent the cycle was, we where definitely in bussing territory by then. I still feel fairly village about Karn, and I still feel suspicious of Drought, who placed the final vote. There where two dissenting votes this cycle. One was from Sart on Amanuensis, which was placed before the BR lynch got started and is therefore NAI, and one from Rathmaskal on Furami after that lynch got going. The Rathmaskal vote would potentially be suspicious, but based on BR's votes during D2, I feel fairly confident that rathmaskal is not on the same team as BR. @Rathmaskal, you said that I give of a slightly different feel than in the previous two games we played where I was an elim. I'm curious if you could elaborate more on this. It's fine if you have trouble putting this into words, but I'm just a bit curious. I've also taken a quick look through BR's posts. There was some early throwing of Shade at Karnatheon, but she listed him as village later in the game, like a lot of people had been doing. She seemed to push relatively hard for the Rath lynch, and probably would have gone after me or Furami last cycle had she been active. I'm not really seeing any new insights here, but I haven't gone over her post with a fine comb yet. So in order from more cleared to less cleared, Cadcom, Furami and Rathmaskal all look pretty village in light of BR's flip.
  24. DeTess
    Welp, this is pretty storming fantastic. I'm pretty sure we should be able to properly hard-clear some people based off of how BR flipped. I'll hopefully have time to do a proper analysis round later, but I'm very busy today so we'll see.
  25. DeTess
    Ugh, couldn't sleep, so I've got some last minute thoughts. I haven't read everything yet, but remember that during D2, BR put Rath in the lead vote-wise at a time where that could be the beginning a wagon (lots of people with one vote, and she placed the 2nd on Rath). I previously concluded that that probably meant BR and Rath weren't both elims. @Furamirionind, I'm going to play devil's advocate (devil's prosecutor? whatever) here for a second, but there's something I noticed. Why do you seem so certain that I'm speaking the truth and there even is a 4th person in the emond's fields doc? For all you know, there could have been 3 of us from the start, and I'm the only one left. @Amanuensis, @Ookla the Positive, @Ookla the Unprepared, @Ookla of the East, @BrightnessRadiant, @Mr Doctor, where are all of you? If we get unlucky with the beast, the elim kill and the amount of elims, this could very well already be the last cycle.
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