DeTess

It differs per gm, but most don't handpick elims, instead using rng to create 2-5 divisions and pick the one that looks best. And 'best' is often a mix of veterans and newbies. Starting out as an elim is often great because it really puts you in contact with the community. Also @Megasif, 'she' for me, tyvm

Oops, I missed that in my tally -_-. Here's the updated one: Vote tally Megasif (3):experience, bugsy, DeTess Bugsy(3): emi, Sart, Matrim

If you have to break the tie in a direction you prefer I'd prefer that because you showing off this role would go a decent distance to alleviating my concerns about your alignment, even if it proves to have saved an elim this cycle by guaranteeing a bugsy lynch. Regarding Coda, I don't think we have any real clue as to their alignment yet, or did I miss something? So I don't think me voting on them at any point is particularly alignment indicative.

Shard of reading. You did state suspicion of them earlier and yet when their lynch came up, you voted in Xino, who is almost certainly village at this point. I've voted on every elim killed so far, so I'm really uncertain where this is coming from. Can you explain? edit: and that's even ignoring the fact that I've been the first one to push for the lynch of silberfarben ( a key part to the elim's bleeder strategy). However, I had missed your claim. I do hope to see you actually put it in action sometime soon though (so to the person keeping them roleblocked, please stop for a cyle). For now, I'm dropping my vote off of Matrim, and moving it to megasif. That means the vote tally is, if I'm not mistaken: Vote tally Megasif (3):experience, bugsy, DeTess Bugsy(2): emi, Sart Which means that once again the best manipulation the elims can hope for (barring zillah coming back) is a tie.

I still do think we should take you out asap though. Nothing personally, but the more successfully we hunt the elims, the more dangerous you become . I also think we should grab the elim extortionist asap though, to stop them from pulling off the same trick with Winsting. I agree with Sart that it's likely to be one of Matrim or Mist, because any other potential elim could/should have also put their vote down for bugsy to save Silber. Of these, I'm ever so slightly more suspicious of Matrim, mostly because Mist had some decent suspicion of Shard relatively early on. Basically, I was trying to confirm that an impersonation into nothingness would cause the vote to also disappear from the vote tally.

Yeah, I think they threw everything they had active at it, and even with it not being enough to switch the lynch off of Silber, losing silber mean that their plan to 'secure, contain and protectuse as a tool' bleeder was shot anyway, so they benefit from at least getting the tie.

I'm not very suspicious of Matrim. He has been on my cleared lynch fora while, and it's only recently that I've started to doubt that somewhat. I mostly moved him back off again because my list of suspects was becoming rather small (maybe too small). Among those active and alive, only Megasif, Coda, Emi, Mist and Matrim have the potential to be evil (in roughly that order from most to least suspicious). In addition to those, Zillah is pretty much guaranteed to be an elim, BR could likely be one as well and the archivist hasn't been cleared in any way, but as long as they remain inactive they're of secondary importance (though if we managed to deal with bugsy and another elim this cycle, it might be worthwhile to put BR, Zillah and the archivist in a three-way tie, just to clear them off the books).

Okay, time to do a quick look over Lord Silberfarben now that we know his alignment. First of all, I'd like to highlight this: Given that we had two kills on an odd cycle, it seems like he, in fact, didn't submit any actions (unless being successful lynched roleblocks you, @A Joe in the Bush?) Also, it seems I was almost certainly right about Pyro's reasons for extorting Silber that cycle XD This post contained something of an implicit defense of Coda, as well as throwing shade at Megasif and me. Mild suspicion of xino, mild trust (even though I really don't want to ) of megasif. He votes on Xino after they survived an attack. This makes me lean fairly village on Xino now. So conclusions: I think Xino is village at this point. Coda looks even more sus, and megasif looks a bit better. Also, silber being the escort also increases Megasif's chance of being evil, as he couldn't be the elim extortionist because his previous player was inactive C1, while the extortionist did their thing on me. Now, let's take a look at the Silber lynch. This was a pretty close call, so i think everyone on the Silber train is good. This is an easy thing to say, as the only person I hadn't cleared some other way yet was Xinoehp. Now, let's look at the other lynch train, being the push on bugsy. I reckon we'll find most of the active elim team here. On that train we can find Matrim, Megasif, Mist, Sart and Silber. Sart's soft-cleared because the elims really tried to get him lynched as a bleeder suspect. I had Matrim as soft-cleared as well for their itneractions with Pyro, but I'm becoming a bit more suspicious of them, mostly just based on a gut feeling though, so I won't dismiss them from the pool yet. Megasif is a pretty major suspicion based on last cycle for me. The way he was dragging his heels on a tie lynch really feels pretty elimmy to me given how that turned out, but he can't be the only active elim left, as he can't be the elim extortionist. Lastly, we've got mist., They where someone I was reading as village before, and they had some pretty decent analysis and suspicion reads, but at this point I feel like, jsut by process of elimination, they should be considered suspicious. Lastly, there's Emi. She voted on me, not bugsy, for a reason that was factually wrong. I am unsure about what to think of her. I really didn't get the impression she had an elim team behind the scenes helping her along, but her vote last cycle was odd. So, in conclusion: Megasif is likely bad, and both mist and Matrim don't look as good as they used to. From my search for the elim extortionist last cycle we know that it has to be one of Coda, Mist, Matrim or Emi (can't be Megasif, Xinoehp is likely village, sil was the escort). Of these, I think Matrim or Mist are most likely. The extortionist likely extorted Zillah to remove a vote off of Silber, so they had to be active in the latter half of the cycle. If either Emi or Coda had been around then though, I'd have expected them to join the lynch on bugsy. Actually, this is incorrect. The elime xtortionist didn't do anything we could see, because if they had extorted Zillah to action, the relevant vote would have straight-up disappeared from the tally (right, @A Joe in the Bush?). So we've got another elim smuggler, most likely. That could be megasif, I reckon. In that case, the elim extortionist would probably not be around near the end pf the cycle, making coda and Emi more likely suspects. Hmmm, @Sart, can you say whether you've been extorted C2 or not? If so, you might be the third smuggler on the straw lynch. If that's so, i think it looks likely that Megasif is another elim smuggler. FI not,t hen he can't be an elim smuggler as eh wasn't around to submit an action C2. tl;dr: Xinoehp good, Megasif, Mist, Matrim and emi maybe bad.

Okay, I'm actually kinda thankful for the kill on Kynedath, as they weren't cleared in my book yet. Also, Bugsy, which of the two did you kill, out of curiosity? More thoughts now that silberfarben is dead coming up later, though I'd note that they weren't an extortionist, which implicates Zillah. edit: @A Joe in the Bush, how does extorting an impersonator work when that impersonator took no actions? Does the impersonated vote just dissappear?

There where a number of impersonations in the village's favor, and after eliminating all other claims, actions and votes only you or Zillah could have submitted those actions. Bleeder will survive this cycle either way, so the elims will get one kill off of her if no village escort can stop bugsy next cycle either way, If the elims do let you die without tying (and since I managed to really reduce the amount of possible people to be the elim!impersonator and elim!escort I don't thing they'll want to have bugsy alive for much longer), we'll just have to consider making the tie less dependent on manipulation next cycle. It could be that silberfarben didn't submit any sort of action that cycle (he only posted once at the start iirc), and that Pyro was trying to get Silbers action in play anyway, which an extortion would do. That might suggest that silber might be the elim escort instead (he was in that group of possible players as well).

We have had three active escorts though, and I doubt all of them are evil. So I think bleeder can be contained even if we fail at tying them up twice in a row. Like I've been saying though, I'm not saying 'ignore bleeder' I'm saying 'tie bleeder with a suspected elim to get the double lynch'. If we focus fully on bleeder, it means we're handing two to three kills (depending on whether a villager can roleblock bleeder next turn) to the elims for free.

But that's the risk of any lynch. And we do those anyway, because even if it's a miss, at least it weeds out suspects. The push on Silberfarben is actually a good example of this. At least one of Silberfarben and Zillah is evil, so even if the silberfarben lynch is a miss, it'll still give us an elim. And I find it really odd I need to tell you this. 'We might not get an elim' has never been a reason not to try.

Can you explain this statement? First, 'elim' suggests you have reason to believe the people I accused are innocent. If so, I'm certain we'd all like to hear why. Second of all, can you explain in what world someone trying to find the elims is suspected of being one, while someone trying to lynch someone that explicitly isn't an elim should be trusted?

I voted on shard of reading, initiated the lynch on Pyro, revealed Furami's targeting of Araris after Devotary PM'd me about their scan and voted on Straw... which I think covers all dead elims so far? Also, I got attacked by the elims, at a time where i really don't think it'd make sense for them to want to WGG* me? And I've made it clear several times now that I want a tie between bugsy and an elim, not for bugsy to be left alone. I suggest those looking for elims focus on those dog-piling bugsy right now, not those trying to take out the elim team. * a WGG is when an elim attacks one of their own while arranging for protection to make that person look village.

I'm fine with a Silberfarben lynch as well. Either Silberfarben or Coda is fine with me, and if Silberfarben is more likely to happen this cycle then that's the lynch I'll settle for, especially because, even in the unlikely event of Silberfarben being village, we still get an elim (Zillah, in this case) out of the deal because of TJ's role analysis.

Actually, if at all possible I want to try and set up a tie situation (Ideally with the elim slightly ahead to force the elims to rely on vote manip to get the lynch on Bleeder as well) so we can get the best of both worlds.

But the problem with that approach is that you'll never catch up or get better if you do that, and everyone else is left with a player that we can't read, because they don't participate. Everyone started as a beginner once, and the only way to get better is to participate. I know catching up to the game in its entirety is daunting, but if you can't do that, at least just pick one or two living players and do some analysis on them. That gives the rest of us clues as to how you're viewing the game, and based on the arguments you make for people's alignments we can figure out your own alignment. This isn't even a case of being correct in your analysis, just about showing us how you're looking at the game.

I don't think there's more than 8 elims, as though they can instantly win once they have a 3/5th's majority, once they reach parity they already get control of the lynch, which means the villages is done, just as in any other game. The 'grace period' between parity and 3/5th's majority isn't there fore the village, it's there for bleeder. Now, on to some role analysis. We know that the elims have an active extortionist and an active escort. This could potentially be the same person, but I don't think so, especially since an elim escorting (blocking sart from proving their role) happened the same cycle bugsy got redirected. These people needed to have been active starting C4 all the way to now, and likely were people the elims trusted to remain active because a single cycle slipped by one of them would unleash a rather ticked off Bleeder. Currently,t he group of suspects is as follows (taken from my similar post last cycle, correcting for those cleared by the shard lynch): Now, off these BR, The_archivist and Zillah don't meet the activity requirement. Kynedath has claimed renowned and I don't think he's lying. Still, an update on scan results would be welcome, @Kynedath. Coda has claimed gossip, but there's no reason to assume they can't have a second role, and they have been active enough tthat they could have submitted actions. Emi has not been active in the thread, but she's been on the Shard enough that she could have submitted actions. @Emi (and @Coda too), this puts you in a position where the village is going to have to seriously consider lynching you. there's no way to clear you of anything, and you're active enough that you're not a potential afk elim that we could ignore. I'd appreciate it if you could step up your activity here a bit. Lord silberfarben is in the same boat as Emi and Coda too. Xino likewise has enough activity, but I think they're less likely to be an elim at this point because of their interactions with reading. Mist is also active enough to be submitting actions for the elims. Megasif subbed in, but he subbed in right on time for the beginning of this trick the elims pulled. However, since Pyro claimed their extorionist targeted me C1, Megasif can't be the elim!extorionist. So that leaves me with six possible eilm!escorts and five possible elim!extorionists Off these, I'm leaning village on Xino and mist. I'm also suspecting lord silberfarben of being an elim impersonator, but lynching him to make sure is probably a good idea either way. That leaves three potential targets for two roles. pretty good odds, all things considered I'm going to move my vote to Coda for now, as between coda, emi and megasif coda's the only one I have an active suspicion off, rather than simply going through a process of elimination. Also, since I reckon the village ahs at least one escort (and possibly two), might I suggest escorting bugsy next cycle, to stop the elims from using bleeder against us.

You can change colors from mobile, just type: [color'=red]Vote Here[/color] without the apostrophe (yes, I did just steal that from Sart's signature, why do you ask?)

That is not any sort of hard clear though. I've asked villagers whether they were elims while I was one myself in the past. Asking it of someone that's completely inactive is also odd. Edit: also, with who are you agreeing? I'm all for a bugsy lynch, just as long as its a tied lynch with an actual suspect.

Bleeder is auto-protected from attacks though, so they wouldn't have lost their extra life. As for the claim, it seems bugsy believes that the village can't afford to spend two lynches solely on him, and I'm inclined to agree. Also, as long as the elims have him in a stranglehold, he can't win (as they'll never let him target Winsting), so I assume he's hoping we can do something about that so that he at the very least gets one or two attempts to take out winsting before he's either lynched, or the elims or village disperse the party.

Might be worth keeping in mind, but I will do my best to arrange those ties I mentioned before. If you're right about us being basically at Lylo then this game will go long, and in any 'last three' situation you'd win, so we'd need to take you out before then. Anyway, i just thought of a bit of analysis I could attempts, but first. @A Joe in the Bush, would you let the elims puppet the actions of inactive team-mates? edit: also, nice bit of irony: if there is indeed a larger than usual elim team then if they'd just handed us bleeder C5 they might have won this cycle on dispersal votes.

... okay, so new plan, we need to tie up bugsy and whoever we consider likely to be an elim. If Silber and/or zillah return to activity we will have to make sure the elim is two votes ahead to force the elims to tier things up neatly. Also, really, elims? You have pyro talk a big game about finding and killing bleeder together, and then when you have her dead to rights you pull that stunt instead? I'm really, really not sorry about taking out Pyro when I did now.

I doubt a village bartender would kill either of the two non-lynchees, so it seems Bleeder is killing again. Anyway, let's look over reading's posts again with the knowledge of their alignment. They pushed for a god king lynch C1. Given that at the time a push on Straw was happening, and reading was the second vote on TGK, this seems like a real effort to get TGK lynched, which makes me think that TGK is likely to be village. They also pushed on Xino back when the whole Xino-pyro tie was happening. I'd expect a vote on Pyro there if xino and pyro where both elims, as it's better to lose the revealed elim, but I reckon at that pointy I would expect the elim team to be working on distancing. Still, it makes me less inclined to lynch Xino anytime soon. That's about all I got out of their posts. Now for their lynch: It was started by Experience, at a time where we had a multi-way tie, so its unlikely that was a distancing attempt. The same goes for Bugsy's vote. Anything after that is less certain. So, tl;dr TGK, bugsy and experience very likely to be non-elim, Xino moderately likely to be non-elim. I'm going to put my vote on Lord silberfarben again ( @Lord_Silberfarben ) . TJ identified them or Zillah as the elim impersonator, and between them I'm more suspicious of Silber than of Zillah. Still, I'd love to hear more from @Zillah as well. edit: speaking off TJ's vote manipulation analysis analysis, the reading wagon hasn't been manipulated at all, but someone moved reading's vote to Xino. I think that was probably Wilson. edit2: also, only 10 awake players out of 17 isn't good. four of those ( @The_Archivist, @Emi, @BrightnessRadiant and @The_God_King) are just afk, but there's also still a bunch of escorts around.

I'm not so sure. I could see confused!village!reading continuing the push on Sart for being bleeder by missing Kynedath clearing Sart. However, he explicitly said that we should stop focusing on bleeder and start hunting elims before making that vote. But then, when he started taking heat for that vote, he brought up the bleeder argument again as if that was his reason for voting. This suggests to me that his public and private reasons for that vote weren't the same (as otherwise its hard to figure out how he got that wrong there), which is almost always an elim tell. Disagree here. We don't have it confirmed unless he's either outed by an alignment scanner (who ahs been dead for several cycles) or they admit it themselves. Given that I think several other alignments can be revealed based off their flip I really want to see them lynched and confirmed rather than making an assumption.