DrakeMarshall

If the act serves no purpose, why are you asking him to drop it? Also, allow me to settle this one. I'm not Luthadel's mayor. I'm Luthadel's Marshall. Anyways, I'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.

I support that. There is nothing left to say today, no?

Well well. We have some problems. I'm a bit surprised that the game is still running, but I can roll with that. Question: Why didn't Seonid protect HH? Answer: Well, I happen to know he was soothed. Question: Why did Steeldancer soothe Seonid then? Answer: I recently had the opportunity to read the description of Straw's powers. And I will confess, I cannot see anything in there that would imply that Steeldancer isn't the mistborn. It explicitly addresses what happens if the target has multiple powers, and being granted soother 2 is a perfectly valid result from targeting a mistborn. I'll admit to being rather surprised that everyone was so sure the power cleared Steel, but I suppose it is understandable for details to fall through the cracks when there is an unfamiliar and unexpected ability in play. Question: So who's the last eliminator, if the game is still running? Answer: I know exactly who it is, but I rather hope you weren't expecting me to tell. Whether it be myself or another, it is in my interest to give the eliminator a fighting chance. Also, I suspect it will be more entertaining this way. You know, at one point or another I've probably accused every player in this game. So excuse me if I find it utterly amusing that Steeldancer was the first person I accused. I reckon Steeldancer is probably about to win. Please accept my congratulations on a game well played, and also my vote for your demise.

I don't expect you to confirm or deny, but I take it that means there's a chance the game could end after tonight? My seeking right now won't be terribly useful. Both HH and shanerockes won't appear to have burnt any metals, unless we've missed something fundamental. I'll put in a seeking order anyhow, but I don't expect that it'll do much good. I recommend everyone else put in their orders. If we assume the eliminator does have an extra life, that risks letting them die tonight. If we assume the eliminator doesn't have an extra life, that risks making this easier for the elims than we want to. Personally, I think it's safer to assume that the elim doesn't have an extra life, but your call, Seonid. I'll level with you, I put our odds at winning under 50% after last cycle. Still, it was fun, and that's what matters. Goodnight.

There is an irony here. If the eliminator needs protection, we need to make sure they get it... But they won’t claim, because that would be a belated death sentence, once the mistborn was out of the picture.

Hmmmm the outline of this plan is good. The fact that we have both soothing and protection capability is reassuring. One thing I will bring up. I haven't seen evidence that this secret role has vote manipulation powers. Which kind of makes me think that they may have an extra life.

Did I mention that I have a bad feeling about this? That aside, if Aspen wasn't even an eliminator... The first conclusion that comes to mind is that the eliminators have a very small team to compensate for a powerful secret role.

Shane claimed smoker? Interesting. This whole retired hazekiller business kind of muddies the waters, because it's very difficult to know if the details about it are accurate. Regardless, the information from Straw, combined with the information about Shane claiming smoker, changes some things. The issue I've been thinking about is this: balance-wise, there has to be more than one elim left. Take a look at the player list, though: Steeldancer- Vote placement on Ornstein means he's probably not elim, Straw's ability implies not mistborn. Straw- Retired hazekiller story is backed up by other people... Possibly a lie but I'll discuss that later in this post. Seonid- Isn't an elim given Ornstein lynch... And I have been told @Straw's story clears Seonid of being mistborn. Well, I hope you know what you're talking about. Hemalurgic Headshot- No metals burned. He is either the mistborn or the assassin. Drake Marshall- Village seeker 2. shanerockes- Claimed smoker. If HH is elim, shane can't be, because HH's vote at the time it was cast seriously put shane in danger of being lynched. Mistborn's rioting implies shane isn't mistborn, but I'll discuss that later in this post. Aspen- Low activity, but otherwise a prime suspect for being mistborn or eliminator. There are a few things that need to be discussed: First, Straw's story about the hazekiller thing. The only reasonable possibilities are that Straw is that telling the truth about this, or that Straw, Steel, and Seonid are all eliminators. If the former, that's quite convenient. If the latter, then the evil roles already outnumber the village, and a village win is pretty unlikely. Second, the mistborn vote manipulation. Why do you suppose the mistborn has been rioting Elend's vote? It's common knowledge that the mistborn is the only one that can control Elend's vote, so this is kind of a vehichle to trick people. I don't really think the placement of Elend's vote can actually be used as a reliable source of information at this point. In the case of Elend's vote on shane, there are really two possibilities: 1. The mistborn was online at the time shane was leading the lynch, and threw their vote on shane. Possibly because they were somebody else in the running for the lynch, or because they wanted to frame somebody else in the running for the lynch. Or 2. Shane is the mistborn, and once they saw that they weren't in the running for getting lynched, they rioted Elend's vote onto themselves to get cleared. Yes, that's tinfoil. Yes, I think we need to consider every possibility at this point. If there's a time to consider every outlandish possibility, it's now, when our guesses are actually informed... Not at the beginning of the game as is traditional. So really, we need to answer. Who are the eliminators?? I reckon there have to be two of 'em here. So... Lets start by assuming that Straw is telling the truth about the hazekiller thing, and work from there. ^^The stuff above this point isn't actually important because I realized something. That leaves HH, shane, and aspen as the only 3 suspects. Among those 3, there have to be 2 elims and 1 mistborn, unless Straw is lying, or somebody was bussing Ornstein hard. So... Basically, two of those people have to be team mates. HH has been one of the instrumental voters on both shane and aspen. Ergo, he really, really probably isn't on the same team as either of those people. I wish I had seen that earlier. Now that I do, it seems pretty simple. HH has to be the mistborn. I knew I had a bad feeling about this for a reason... I was wrong about it being Seonid though. @Seonid @Straw @Steeldancer @shanerockes Probably too late but I'll mention you folks.

In the interests of actually utilizing the full time, I'll sit down to think about this more shortly.

Conventionally, the event horizon is immutable. This applies to all three realms. Note that the black hole is heavily invested by Ruin. This allows us to harvest some atium from inside the singularity. Why is this important? Well, atium is well known for it's temporal effects. These temporal effects can be used to compromise the event horizon. The specifics of how this works to let people actually pass in and out of the lab is a little hard to explain... But it should be pretty easy to explain how atium can in principle be used to bypass the issues surrounding the event horizon. Imagine if you burned atium while looking at a black hole from outside the event horizon. You might see into the future... A possible future where you crossed the event horizon. You would be able to see things from inside the event horizon, without actually crossing it.

If Aspen were the mistborn, and HH were the assassin, who else is the remaining elim?

Hmmm... I’m not sure whether we should base so much off of a role that isn’t common knowledge. But it has occured to me that HH and Aspen probably can’t both be elims, seeing as how HH was one of the first votes on Aspen.

Well now that you mention it, I am rather fond of doing that when the opportunity arises.

Okay, there's a complication. I've just heard that my scan result on HH could indicate that HH was smoked. Which, ironically, means that soothing/rioting is a much more effective tool for finding mistborns than seeking is. But I digress. This means that my scan result doesn't clear HH from being the mistborn. He could either be the assassin or the mistborn, and I would have gotten those same results.

Sigh... Yes, we will find out. I am not in favor of shortening the cycle, but if everybody is fixed on Aspen, I won't stand in the way.

Do you really believe the writeup would reveal half that much? I'm a little surprised that it substantiated Straw's claim, but... I'm pretty sure the bit about me refers to my RP. Jay stole some things. Although I will note that he didn't actually kill anybody. All he did was choke a guard unconscious with an awakened coat, and bonk a sleepy fellow on the head to stop him from getting out of bed. Anyway, even if I were the assassin, why would I lie about my scan result on HH? It clears HH of being the mistborn, and if I were an eliminator, I would not want to lie about my scan result on HH and save the mistborn from getting lynched. That would be a really, really bad idea for me. So I don't really see how any of this works out.

Very well, I'll go with that explanation, Straw. Sounds pretty legit. In that case I wonder why Araris never spoke up when I asked several times if anyone targeted Straw on the first night. I was certain Straw was a Seeker 1. So... Down to business, now that the whole ability-gaining thing is settled. The options are dwindling. Everything that seemed at all likely has proven false. The only remaining option seems to be @Aspen. Aspen hasn't said basically anything, but despite seeming inactive, has been online in all of the correct timeframes to put in kill orders and vote manipulation orders. What's more, I don't think shanerockes could be the mistborn given the placement of last cycle's vote manipulation... And I'm almost positve that HH is the assassin given the results of my seeking. And yet... I don't like it. I don't really think I can picture Aspen deliberately pretending to be inactive, which is what he would have to have been doing if he were the mistborn. This feels very, very wrong. If the cycle ends 24 hours early and nothing changes, I can't shake the feeling that this will end the game. And I am thus in favor of this cycle lasting a full 48 hours. We've been lead on quite the goose chase, haven't we? We have some "cleared" people and some "suspect" people, and we've been steadily lynching all of the suspect ones. What if we've been looking in the wrong place? What if ignoring all of those "cleared" people was all a big mistake? Incidentally, most of those "cleared" people actually have hard evidence to support their case. ...Most. One of them does not. We've all gotten a super-good vibe off of Seonid, myself included... But he isn't cleared. Not really. In fact, I do believe that he is capable of orchestrating this kind of goose chase. From a certain light, it makes perfect sense that Seonid took the mistborn threat seriously before others did. It was a great way to keep himself above suspicion... And it worked. Even when I was 100% convinced that Darkness was evil, I will admit that I was rather surprised to see Seonid backing me up on that, because I felt I really hadn't done a very good job explaining why I thought Darkness was evil. Once upon a time I chose to trust Seonid, because I thought there were other possibilities that made much, much more sense. But now all of those possibilities are dead, and personally, I think Aspen is less probable than Seonid. I don't really want to do this, but the more I think about it, the more things snap into place. Seonid. I can positively hear Darkness' shade screaming "I told you so" from the cognitive realm. Or maybe he isn't. I'll know soon enough, lol. But seriously, we can't keep ingoring Seonid merely because of gut read, as confident as we are in that read (particularly since our gut is calibrated to finding elims). Literally everyone else has real evidence that at least implies that they aren't mistborn, except Seonid. EDIT: @Steeldancer@Straw@Seonid@Hemalurgic Headshot@shanerockes@Aspen

Scan result from HH: No metals burned. I have a lot more to say. Aspen could be the mistborn. There is one other possibility we really need to look at as well. More on that later. For now: Yeah something's wrong. Please explain what's going on here, and why this power-changing business is so secretive. I smell hemalurgy.

Cycle has ~3 hours left, so I'll make some final notes before it ends: -I'm pretty sure Steel was responsible for the soothed vote. -Speaking of soothing, I'd like to point out that it was HH's vote that got soothed. If he were smoking himself, his vote would have resisted soothing. -Aspen hasn't been online yet this cycle. That makes it a little less likely that they would be the mistborn, although Araris has already demonstrated that action orders can be submitted in advance. -At this point, my top guess for the unstable mistborn is ShaneysRus. Second guess would definitely be HH. -For those of us who have powers that might be able to detect mistborn (notably @Darkness_), we may want to avoid redundancy. To those ends, I will disclose that I am planning on scanning HH. I'm generally a bit confused about HH, and I think I'd rather know, one way or another.

Excellent! Welcome aboard. If you have any special requests for your office and lab space, contact the coordinator of our hemalurgically modified lifeless construction crew and they'll make sure it gets done.

I might have missed something, but I don't recall Steel saying that he was notified that he was targeted by something. If he did say something like that, this would change some things. Also, I really hope Aspen isn't the mistborn. The mistborn has consistently been around to put in a kill order and use their vote manipulation intelligently. If it were Aspen, that would mean Aspen has been following the game quite closely, but deliberately not posting so that we'd think they were totally inactive. I think this sort of play would be bad form, and I hope your theory about Aspen is wrong.

@Seonid I know Straw's role and I will confirm that it is not rioter. EDIT: Also, @Aspen you haven't said anything since monday... But you were online during this past day cycle. Do you have anything to say about the game?

Well, a few days ago we managed to invest a black hole with Ruin's power. Construction of a laboratory complex inside the singularity is already ongoing. We're already planning on adding an extensive bakery. If you want, I can comission some office space in there as well. It's not as big as some of our other dimensions, and even more hazardous than most... But the location is also very secure, and the research opportunities are fantastic.

In fairness, I hit submit before I refreshed the page and saw Seonid's post The outcome wasn't good, no. On the bright side, it's probably in the elims' interest to help us take down the mistborn by now. Is been a fine game anyhow. I'll see you all in the morning.

...oops. Wouldn't have reckoned that there's another seeker 2 either. So... I'm going to say I'm pretty sure these people are all villagers: Steeldancer Straw Seonid Darkness_ Drake Marshall And these people include ~2 elims, ~1 villager, and the unstable mistborn: Hemalurgic Headshot shanerockes ShaneyRus Aspen Guess that's that then. We'll see where this goes.