TheMightyLopen

Nice death scene Drake! And well played, I'm glad you didn't have the time to keep up the facade until the end of the Cycle. xD

I expected him to have a jeskeri Pendant, but maybe one of his teammates has one, and that's why he was so adamant about being able to "prove" himself? What do you all think?

It appears Devotary is a Dula, so unless the Gyorn has secret powers, he can't be the Gyorn. Hm, only just thought about the possibilities of an eliminator Dula. Scary.

Aaand Drake had no items. New theory: The old theory only applies to villagers. Jeskeri are balanced differently.

Hero, I don't see the convert tally anywhere. Just curious since a Shu-Dereth Pendant was used. I think it's time we really try to narrow down who the Gyorn could be. Not saying we should ignore the Jeskeri, but it's Night and we really haven't discussed it very much so far. Anyone have any ideas?

Wilson, the last player I mentioned in my last message to you asked me to ask you to PM them.

19 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

The balance issue with giving elims a Jeskeri pendant is that the JinDo’s ability already has a cooldown, and the ability to double tap on top of that would be kind of redundant. No only that, but if just one cultist had a Jeskeri pendant, than every single cultist could claim to have that pendant if they were the first to be scanned, which imo would be overpowered.

Also if I were a cultist who also had a Jeskeri pendant, I definitely would have used it to double tap Aman the night he claimed priest.

Also, if you do believe I have a pendant, than on what basis do you find me evil, since you haven’t cited reasons beyond the scan this cycle?

 

I can totally understand if you are wary of me for not telling Len about my pendant, but this isn’t that. I demand that you rationalize my mislynch using sound reasoning, thank you very much 

Goodnight.

One single double-tap. And yes, that's true, but it seems likely that there are 2 village Priests. Feels like a fair counter-balance to me.

Didn't think about that if I'm being honest. But as was already stated, I think the Cultists have some really good protection from scans, so it's not like double tapping is super necessary at that point(that and Aman dies early all the time, so maybe you'd have wanted to give him an extra Cycle?).

I'm a little confused because I literally just said you lying about having a Pendant is why I think it's worth lynching you, and not the scan? Plus all of that other stuff I posted during the Night about why I was suspicious of you? Pretty much the only reason I backed off of you was because you seemed willing to be killed during the Night, but I also said that thinking over that, I was the only one to speak out against you so saying you were fine with dying was a little drastic. So, here are my reasons.

1. Throughout the game, I couldn't get a good read on you, which is a red flag to me because it signals you're not doing anything big that would draw attention to you either way.
2. You lied about having a Pendant.
3. All of the reasons I pointed out the other Night. I know you responded to them, but especially the part about me not voting on Araris being suspicious does not make sense to me.
4. You said you were somewhat fine with being pendanted after a single player accused you, which seems more like an eliminator making a show of innocence rather than a villager who feels backed into a corner.

Maybe I'm wrong about you. It's definitely possible, but as the saying goes, "Hindsight is 20/20" and I'm using the soundest reasoning I can.

23 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

I was scanned as Jeskeri.

I can prove I have a pendant by passing it or using it tonight, thus accounting for the scan.

I guess theoretically I could be a Jeskeri with a Jeskeri pendant, but this is pretty unlikely for balancd reasons, and anyhow after passing the pendant it will be possible to accurately scan me.

Yeah, see, I kinda feel like that's exactly what's going on here. You're a Jeskeri with a Jeskeri Pendant(or one of your teammates has one). You thought you'd hang on to it in case one of you or your teammates who could get scanned as Jeskeri gets scanned, so you could then say exactly what you're saying now. "I can prove I have a Jeskeri Pendant, so your scan means nothing!" Then you either use the Pendant to kill a villager or pass it to someone and make us use another scan on you, thereby using up 2 village scans and making us look elsewhere while we wait for the scanner. I feel similar to Wilson in that your certainty about proving yourself seems genuine, but I think it's just because you've got a Jeskeri Pendant rather than you being village. This would account for you lying about having a Pendant or not, because you might use it later to kill an important villager, so you wanted to have anonymity.

So for me, the scan on you isn't the biggest point against you. It's you having lied about whether or not you have a Pendant when there's more reason to tell the truth(in my opinion at least). And personally, I don't see a problem with giving the Jeskeri a Jeskeri Pendant? It's only 1 extra kill, and also has the extra use of being used in the scenario I gave. Since it looks like we've got 2 village Priests, that means there was a good chance at least one of your team would get scanned, so I can totally see Hero giving the Jeskeri a Jeskeri Pendant.

If everyone changes their mind and wants to wait to lynch you, I would suggest you use the Pendant rather than pass it off, since it happens before scans and passing happens after. We could ask the Jindo to protect whoever we want you to target so if they're village they'll survive the attack, and then ask the Priest to scan you, giving us 2 scans in one.

Hrm. Should check with Hero on this, since I'm actually not sure if the Jindo thing would work. 

Hero, if a Jeskeri Pendant is used on a villager but that villager is protected by a Jindo, will it show up in the write-up as an attack and protect on the specific player? Like, "Bob (Steeldancer) was attacked but was protected by a Jindo Warrior!" I'm just wanting to make sure the player name shows up.

Drake, how exactly can you prove your alignment?

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

Why would someone claim that? If they are a village priest, that's basically begging for the elims to off them just like they did Aman. However, this person is the person scanned by Aman cycle 1, before Aman went into Elantris and was subsequently murdered. This person also claims to have scanned Lopen and I as Arelish non converts (which is true, at least for me). They have also claimed to Lopen.

Oh, and I'll back Len up. That's exactly why I was stalling. I mean, I was also rethinking, but I had a lead and I wanted to follow it through before saying much more to the thread. Joe. Drake . I started getting a bad read on Drake last cycle and mentioned it to Lopen, who then accused Drake. His defense doesn't sway me, and he's been fairly ambivalent and quiet unless called out, which is not really how he generally plays. Additionally, I rather strongly dislike his repeated references to AG3 and a WGG, when it should be obvious that this is a very different situation (if you'd like me to explain that further, I would be happy to). Strikes me more as an eliminator subtly trying to get villagers paranoid about a strongly read villager than an actual villager paranoid about another villager.

Just posting to confirm all of this. The Priest contacted me a Cycle or so ago and told me they'd scanned me and Wilson, at which point me and Wilson were trying to figure out if they were trustworthy or not. Assuming Drake is evil, they almost definitely are.

1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Drake . Although I'm still a little confused and suspicious, lynching Drake will for sure find us an elim (either the priest who claims he is evil or Drake, and I don't see why the elims would go out on a limb this early in the game). I appreciate the explanation Wilson. It makes sense both why you were taking time to respond, and why certain members don't want to reveal themselves (the priest and Jindo Warrior who would makie themselves targets).

Well, there's also the possibility that Drake is a villager with a Jeskeri Pendant like he's claiming, which means we're not guaranteed to find an elim.

Looking back over Drake's defense last Night, I think it was his offer to be pendanted instead of lynch that swayed me, since eliminators really do rarely try that(at least, in my memory they don't), but I guess it does seem a little drastic after only a single player had accused him of being suspicious.

2 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

... I think we might want to hold off on Drake.  I mean, it should be pretty easy to confirm whether he's telling the truth, and I REALLY don't think we should throw away a vigilante kill this quickly.  I also don't think we should lynch Joe, as there ARE pinch hitters.

Actually all of our pinch hitters are already in the game. :/

I don't think it's safe to hold off on Drake. If any of the Jeskeri have a Jeskeri Pendant, then they could use it to "prove" he had one. And even if they don't, this could be Drake trying to stall his death. I'm not 100% confident that Drake is evil, but the tipping point for me is lying about not having a Pendant, because admitting to having a Jeskeri Pendant isn't too likely to make you a priority target for the Jeskeri and it also helps people know whether they should trust a scan on you if you're ever scanned. I mean, if someone specifically asked me if I had a Jeskeri Pendant to help them kill someone, I'm pretty sure I'd consider the fact that I may have been scanned and they're trying to see what alignment I'd show up as. I'd also probably have used a Jeskeri Pendant at this point as well, since I'd want my real alignment to show up on scans.

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

@Dalinar Kholin Joe has made me rethink my theory about the priest claimant and why I thought I had been attacked. I'm much more hesitant about lynching him to check the priest when I am not convinced he's evil now and if Joe's village, the priest is definitely village. I thought I had been attacked because of specific information I had shared with the priest and I was going to share that information with the thread, but if the priest isn't Jeskeri, this is information that really shouldn't be public knowledge right now. Or, preferably, until the game ends.

What I can say is that, yes, I was in contact with the Jindo who protected me. I got paranoid about the priest and Joe last night and started searching for pendants to throw at one of them to see if my paranoia was accurate, but when that search was unsuccessful, I requested protection from the Jindo and they thankfully got on in time to deliver. When the attack went through, I grew more certain in my paranoia, but now I'm thinking it may have just been coincidence. Wouldn't be the first coincidence to happen this game. Hence the silence. I'm currently rethinking.

This is pretty much exactly what I'm thinking as well. I'll admit that I'm partly to blame for Wilson's paranoia, as she explained some of the situation to me, and I was less sure about the Priest's villageness than her and brought up why, which caused her to rethink whether she should trust the Priest.

At this point, I would try to offer up an alternative lynch, but I just do not have the time to find a lynch I feel comfortable pushing. I'll probably have to listen to ya'lls accusations and vote alongside whichever I find the most likely to be right.

Nice work Jindo. I'm glad they didn't protect me, haha. (making sure not to sound too excited here )

But seriously, I felt like we needed something to go right, and a blocked attack gives us a little more time to catch the remaining Jeskeri and the Gyorn/Odiv. My suspects list is pretty small at this point, and Joe is on it, so I'd support a Joe lynch as things stand right now(I think he is sick though, which sucks. Get well soon Joe!). I think going over my villagers list and reconsidering a few of them would also be a good idea. I feel like it's a good idea to just reset things back to normal sometimes to keep an unbiased opinion.

Anyways, I didn't get much sleep last night and had a long day today, so this will likely be my last post for the night. As a heads up, I've got family over, so my activity will probably be erratic over the next 2 days.

I do kinda feel like I was overly suspicious of Drake, looking back at my analysis and now at Drakes response, so I'm moving my read from suspicious to maybe village, actually.

24 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The passphrase can be shared, so an elim starting with it would let their team anonymously hammer a lynch every cycle. On days where the number of voters for a single person is less than the number of elims, that would let them lynch whoever they wanted.

Oh. Very obvious, yeah. >>

5 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Actually Aman didn't tell me who poisoned him.  I told him.

I poisoned Aman.

I kinda thought this might be the case, what with your whole "I could do my plan" thing back on N1 and Aman was saying it might help him. But then for some reason when you said you didn't do your plan, I totally believed you. xD

Why do you think the elims wouldn't start with the passphrase? It doesn't seem too powerful or anything, so I'm not sure I follow.

Drake

Who else was I going to review...? I guess only Imperial Mint and HH. I think I'll just leave them for tomorrow, since I'm pretty tired.

I'm a little worried about being killed because of how active I am, so any Jindo Warriors out there, please consider protecting me! I know a few players may still suspect me, so it might seem like a weird time to kill me, but if the Cultists think I'm even getting close to being trusted by the village, they'd probably want to take me out now while I'm not as likely to be protected. Mostly I just want to suggest it for the IKYK involved.

Uh, I didn't use my Princely powers this Cycle, so this is kinda weird. (Also, they could be Princesses. )

36 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Just so you know, Aman DID tell me who poisoned him. Sorry 

Who did it then?

I'd like to point out that Arinian claimed to have Poisoned himself, and he had a role and no other items when he died. So the theory is alive and well.

About the lynch, well, I guess I don't have a problem with it except for the fact that we lynched someone who couldn't post in the thread which hampers discussion a bit. I didn't have a solid read on Arinian either way, so it kinda helps narrow things down for me at least. Other than that, I'm not sure what else there is to learn as I've only quickly skimmed through it. This is the first chance I've had to get on all day, so I'll try to go over things a little closer in a while.

We need some votes people! I know I haven't voted yet, but that's partly because my biggest suspicion was just killed and turned out to be village, so I wanted to go back over things. I guess I can do some of that now. 

My village reads include: Wilson, Dalinar, Walin, Seonid(not sure about Joe, so am a little skeptical about his claim of scanning Seonid, but I did like Seonid's willingness to be a participant in the D1 lynch), and Elenion. I still have slight village reads on King Cole, Mraize, Pyro, and Kidpen.

Everyone else is basically neutral, so those are the players I will look over now, starting from the top of the player list and going down.

1. Joe

2. Steeldancer

3. Straw

I'm gonna take a break now. Here's who's left: Devotary(already reviewed actually, so keeping him as Neutral: need more stuff to analyze), Drake, Stink, and I guess I'll add Arinian and HH as well, since they weren't Elantrians to begin with.

I'll place my vote on Straw, but please don't everyone bandwagon on him. That's happened to him enough, and we really do NOT need a bandwagon lynch this Cycle. We need multiple, viable lynch targets on players we can't figure out to give us the best odds of hitting an eliminator.

6 hours ago, little wilson said:

Yeah, I can reach out to that contact. Also, I'll just say here and now that Lopen's posts since I accused him and the PM I created with him last night have mostly assuaged me of that suspicion. I didn't say anything last night about this because I wanted to see what other people said and if anyone else jumped on Lopen with little reasoning beyond my case. I still agree there was a weird tone with that Araris post, but him being Jeskeri is not the only explanation for it so I currently am choosing to look elsewhere.

Edit: one thing I'd like discussed is the possibility of at least one Jeskeri Elantrian. Yes, Aman was a priest and yes he had only been poisoned, but that makes him not a threat to non-Elantrians for at least another cycle. Yet they killed him on his first night in Elantris. Why? I think it's because he was still a threat to them. Which means there is a Jeskeri Elantrian (or two, depending on if one got taken by the Shaod/poisoned). This fits with LG12, where there was a starting Jeskeri Elantrian.

Cool, thanks. Hopefully I can help lynch an eliminator this Cycle and clear my name(at least mostly).

Yeah, I've mostly been ignoring them, since I have no idea how to try and figure out their alignments. I did mention I thought HH's vote switch to Rand seemed kinda shady, so he'd be my first guess, but that's not exactly in line with your point that one of the starting Elantrians might be Jeskeri. Between those 3, I've no idea. I PM'd Drought on N1 and he said he hadn't even read the thread, which was a little strange I thought. But that's all I've got.

3 hours ago, Kidpen said:

Lope, I assume this wasn't you?

Yeah, I moved King Cole's vote, so it wasn't me.

2 hours ago, Walin said:

Ok, I’ve got little analysis to share. TheMightyLopen and Eenion led discussion earlier in the day, and the arguments were well-thought out, though didn’t seem like they were made in collusion. So if either one of them is a certain faction, we can probably know the other is of a different faction.

I don’t have much else to add other than simple observation.

I disagree with this logic. You leave out the possibility that we're both villagers with this line of reasoning, because 2 villagers don't know the other is in their faction, so they're not going to 'collude' as you put it. Not too suspicious of you for this, but wanted to point that out.

3 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I just know that with your sense of humor, I wouldn't put joking about that kind of thing past you. I know it was unreasonable: I was only half-wondering. 

Your theory has interesting implications. If true, that means that scans targeted at players who started with Seons would be more likely to be true than scans targeted at random, because the target would only have a Pendant in addition to their Seon if they were vanilla.

Haha, okay. I'd make sure it was obvious I was joking about something like that though, considering I'm in a bit of hot water at the moment. >>

Pyro actually mentioned it first, but yeah, I think there's a fair chance of it being true. Speaking of which, Wilson said that the player Aman scanned had a Seon, so maybe she could ask that player about whether they've got a role? It's not conclusive, especially since the elim could just lie at this point. But if we forced them to lie, it'll make it a little easier to catch them I think. Wilson, what do you think? It might just be a wild goose chase, but I think there's a chance it'll turn out to be useful.

Regardless, we should probably try to focus on the lynch now, and discuss role distribution and such during the Night.

39 minutes ago, Elenion said:

(double-post because you can't quote into edits)

I'm half-wondering if you did Pendant Eternum. You seemed to be the only one who suspected him.

Well, so far I've seen nothing to persuade me away from the theory that everyone with a role started with 1 item and everyone who is vanilla started with 2. I'm a Prince, so my Seon is my only frienditem. Someone could have passed me a Pendant, but why would I lie about something like this? I don't see the point.

Hm. Actually, I just noticed Araris only had a Korathi Pendant when he died, and he was vanilla. He did mention he would probably Poison Aman if he was an eliminator I believe, so it's possible he started with a Poison vial and the theory is still valid.

1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

The use of the Jeskari Pendant is a little odd on Eternum strikes me as a little odd, he wasn't even on my radar. Was that perhaps based off what was happening day one, or anyone care to explain? It could be an elim/Gyorn hit instead of a village one.

Could you clarify how we know an Elantrian was converted the last night? And in response to your earlier post, your info has been great, but I would love some analysis on who you think is good and evil. Information is the foundation to good discussion, but right now we need more discussion if we have any hope of finding elims.

Well, I posted a couple times last Night Turn accusing Eternum of being Jeskeri, so I'm guessing someone agreed with me and killed him. It might be completely unrelated, but I kinda doubt it. I guess there's not much harm in them claiming if they want to. I certainly wouldn't count Eternum's death against them, since if I had a Jeskeri Pendant, I very likely would have used it on Eternum.

I think I need to do some serious reviewing of everyone at this point. I'll try to get some of that done tonight, and hopefully place a vote.

Dangit. At least I won't be focused on Eternum now... I'm guessing someone used a Jeskeri Pendant on him, but Hero forgot to say a Pendant was used?

6 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Why am I slightly village?

Similar reasons to Kidpen. Something I remember specifically about you though is your post at the beginning of Day 2 when you said you'd PM Aman to see who he'd targeted with his Jeskeri Pendant. I felt like if you were a Cultist you would've been paying better attention to the end of Night 1 and would have seen that he'd targeted Araris(or one of your teammates would have posted in the doc about it and you'd have seen it there) , so you wouldn't have posted as if you had no idea. That's one specific instance that I thought made you seem village, but most of your other posts seem fairly genuine.

I've been going back and forth with you and Kidpen because a couple of your posts have rubbed me the wrong way, but I think most if not all of that stuff could be chalked up to play style. I've never played with either of you, so it's harder to get reads from the small details.

2 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

If I had to cast a vote right this moment, I'd probably follow the lead of a pretty reasonable-sounding accusation, and vote for you. But I'd really rather take the time to reach my own conclusions, and I will not have time to do that properly until next turn. I think it's in everybody's interests if I chime in only once I've actually read your defense carefully.

That's fair.

3 hours ago, Eternum said:

[RP]

------------------------------------

Okay, so, game stuff.

About Araris: A couple posts of his were piquing my interest, but it wasn't enough to analyze at that point. Joe had voted for him, though, so I decided to voice the fact that I found him shady at the very least. That's all, really. It wasn't much more than a gut read, though I had not done more than skim his posts until he was proven a cultist. At that point, his identity was a done deal.

I'm not very sure about Lopen. Wilson makes good points, and his enthusiasm when Araris was caught read really weird to me, but I'm not convinced yet. However, if I don't find a better lynch target during the day, or if one doesn't come up, I'm willing to lynch him.

Still, you say you'll talk more about Araris after the Day is over, but then all you say is that it was gut. If it was simply gut, why not just say that to begin with? That's why it feels like an elim/elim interaction to me.

This also feels like hedging to me, because you know I'll flip village if I'm lynched/killed. Villagers do this all the time though, so I don't know if I should really count it against you. It doesn't change my mind though.

Anyone else want to chime in on this?

2 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

I’m curious. Why am I slightly village? 

Uhh, can't remember exactly what posts made me think that and am too tired to go back through all of them, but I feel like you've been generally open with your thoughts. Like, they don't seem calculated or anything.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I do prefer making observations to putting together analysis. This is generally the same for me regardless of alignment. I've never been one to post suspicions lists, though I can try to do so if you want. 

Eternum has also claimed to be a Seon holder, on page 25 on the locked thread.

 

I don't think doing a list is necessary if you don't like doing that sort of thing. As long as you're posting and voting, there'll be things about you to analyze. We've really only had 1 Day of lynch discussion, so it's no surprise you haven't done something that firmly points people one way or another. There's a lot of other players I have no idea about.

Thanks, I had missed that.

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

I actually started with my own Seon too. Didn't realize it until Cycle 2 though, when I inherited Bort's. To my knowledge, there is one more Seon holder, and they are the player Aman scanned last cycle.

Okay, cool. Updated list of who's got a Seon then:

Wilson - I'm leaning village fairly strongly.
Pyro - Slight village lean
Kidpen - Slight village lean
Lopen - VILLAGE
Devotary - Neutral
Eternum - Unsure. I was leaning elim early, but one of his posts from Night 1 that I read over a while ago changed my mind somewhat. I think he was suspicious of Bort a little bit, and that didn't seem like a stance an eliminator would have taken at that point, and especially not if they had already planned to kill him that Night.

Okay, decided to not be lazy and find it. Here's the post by Eternum on Night 1:

Quote

All I had on Araris at the time was a gut read, and you were relatively more active, thus I decided to focus on you. I had very little time when I posted, so I had to either do analysis on one of you or neither. You're not really off my radar yet though, because that convo between you and Aman could have easily been pre-planned. That entire thing Aman did, with roleclaiming and whatnot, could have been simply a cover. This could be me overthinking things, but it's not a possibility that should be dismissed out of hand.

However, you make a good point about Araris. I'll read what happened while I was asleep more carefully, and post any thoughts. Sure, this is a night cycle, but that's no reason to stop discussing. I'm particularly curious about how quickly the lynch moved off of me and toward Rand. It insinuates me as an elim and gets rid of a villager all in one fell swoop.

Ehhh, I can't make up my mind now that I'm looking it over again. I could see this as him trying to cast doubt on Bort, and then when he doesn't get any villagers agreeing with him, the Cultists decide to off Bort rather than try to force the issue. This post wasn't that long after the Night was posted, so it's definitely possible they hadn't decided on their kill yet. And the thing with Araris could have been him picking one of his teammates as his second suspect to gain trust if anything happened to him.

For context, here's Eternum mentioning Araris for the first time on Day 1(and only time before the above post):

Quote

I don't have much analysis to offer, and the only people that stood out to me are Araris and Bort. I'll talk about Araris later, maybe next cycle, but for now, Bort.

[reasons for suspecting Bort and then vote on Bort]

I don't want to fault someone for being too busy to expand on their suspicion, but since we now know Araris was a Cultist, I can't help but wonder if this was distancing. He mentions he's suspicious of an eliminator and a villager, and focuses on the villager. Later, he chalks up his suspicion of the eliminator up to gut(an easy out instead of trying to back up his claim with pointed analysis), and admits the villager has a point about the eliminator, but still doesn't really try to put any focus on him.

Hm. I think I might be getting a little tunnel-y myself now, so I'll just leave it at that for now. I'll almost definitely revisit this tomorrow though.

Edit: That is hilarious Hero! 

She's got Bort's Seon, so it doesn't count in terms of figuring out which of the original Seon holders could be evil.

6 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Gut, and you are one of the potential evil Seon holders.

Fair enough. What other Seon holders do we know of? There's me, you, Kidpen, Bort(villager), and Devotary...I think that's everyone. I can't remember anyone else mentioning having a Seon. Out of that group, I think I'd be most suspicious of Devotary. Pyro and Kidpen are giving me conflicting reads, but at the moment I think I'm leaning slightly village for both of them.