TheMightyLopen

7 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Lopen is definitely not a villager. I see no way a Skindancer (Bard) could have truthfully claimed Lopen was the most likely player to be a living, unexpelled Skindancer if Lopen was a student.

2 minutes ago, Experience said:

@Elkanah, I don't feel comfortable sharing what field I'm a master in mostly because when Straw claimed to the thread, he was sabotaged the next cycle. If you want to, feel free to PM me.

I also don't see any way that he could have gotten around this, and so if Lopen 'reveals' who targeted him then we really can't trust what he says. 

I see a way around this. It's that Devotary is lying. At this point I think you, Devotary, and probably Karnage are all evil and if you can get me killed, the game is probably all but over. I don't see why Devotary would make something up like this otherwise, as now as soon as I die you'll pile on them. My guess would be Devotary is about to become Master and they have at least a Bodyguard so they're not worried about becoming a target. Just in case though, Devotary Devotary.

I know my defense is probably weak since I haven't done anything concrete in thread to clear myself, but isn't this a little too perfect? Devotary plum bob's Bard and gets the very player who was just attacked by a villager(I'm fairly certain it was a villager)? It's an easy way to set that players mind at ease about attacking me and getting them to do it again. Also the fact that Devotary only got one Skindancer name? At his rank he'd have to have been very unlucky to only get one or two questions off before Bard went into a rage.

And the fact that neither Experience or Karnage will reveal their fields at this point in the game just screams that the Skindancers really don't care how they look in thread because the game is almost over.

14 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Two people going insane, which means at least one of them was from a field. Fura claimed a dip into Naming, which would cause an insanity chance. I don't know about Rover's field. I finally bothered to ask about Fura being elevated 4.1 and 5.1 despite being 3 turn roleblocked at the same time as the 4.1 elevation. I asked about being roleblocked and elevated as happening on the same turn in my wording, which may have been wrong, but the answer to what I asked was that it wasn't possible, which I think does mean Fura was lying about not having nahlrout. 

Elandera had enough EP to become a Master but didn't get it, which means one of the current Masters is in her field. I don't have a great way of knowing who that would be.

Lopen survived an attack, and while the attack isn't too unexpected from certain calls to attack Masters, the survival is interesting. Horse and 4 is perhaps the most likely, though it's entirely possible Lopen did manage to snag a bodyguard early on or enlisted someone else's help for protection.

While not too unexpected, have to say I am disappointed if it was a villager who attacked me(and it seems like it was unless the elims have Naming they haven't used until this point). I feel like Karnage or Experience were better targets, but I guess I'm biased.  As far as how I survived, I think that's probably not a good idea to share with the thread.

11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, I’m glad to finally have a Master that I trust .

 I’m rather surprised that someone attacked Lopen, given his claim of Arithmetics. Losing 30% of your cash seems like a steep cost for a failed attack. Also, the write up says that Lopen was attacked, but not protected. Given the “attempt to fly,” I’d wager the friendly namer took a shot at him, and as Burnt said, Wind wasn’t enough for a kill on its own.

Well I am a Master now, so I get to choose who to pickpocket instead of pickpocketing only those who target me. So I didn't end up pickpocketing my attacker.

Anyways, I'm back at home! If I'm still alive next round, I'll purchase an Assassin and let the thread choose the target to sort of set up a 2nd lynch that can also hit Masters. I think that's the most useful thing I can do for now.

56 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Have you spent any of your sweet cash?

Yeah, a bit of it. Got a decent chunk right now, but I thought I'd wait until I had a better grip of the game before I tried assassining or passing out protection. Not sure what the prices are right now, although Burnt told me Bodyguards are like...120 Talents??? So no chance of that.

36 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@TheMightyLopen Any particular reason you went for Arithmetics? That seems like a weak field of study for a noble.

I guess I'll put my votes on Fura Fura. I was only reluctant to vote on him because he's roleblocked, but I'm not super convinced about any of the other eligible vote targets. It would be nice if Rath would show up at some point. Otherwise, re-expelling him would be a good way to dump DP.

Actually because I'm a Noble. I thought I'd go for the richest player award. LG18 I was super powered Master Archivist with 2 Names, so I thought I'd play a bit more passively this time around so I'd be less stressed out about using my abilities effectively. >>

Ok, so very cool. I'm master! Wasn't positive I'd actually get it.

I guess I can reveal. Master Arithmetician, at your service. I'd like to offer free hugs. You'll come away feeling lighter afterwards, freed from your burdens of this material plane.

Uh, votes. I know I'm not in a position of trust, but I want to still do what I can. I think Burnt and Araris are as close to being cleared as we're gonna get for now, so no voting on them. Karnage and Experience are masters, so it's pointless. That leaves...Devotary, Elandera, Fura, Elkanah, um, anyone else? I don't know. I'll focus on those. Devotary, voted on by Hael. Otherwise, idk, hasn't said much AI stuff that I can think of. Elandera, is there any reason to trust them? I remember they posted a lot of what Walin and Hael said, but their conclusions based off of that were that me and Fura are evil I think, and now they're casting doubt on Burnt who I think is most likely village. I would definitely lynch Elandera based off of these things. Fura, very active, apparently would rather be expelled than roleblocked is what I remember. hard for me to go back and check a lot of interactions since I don't have much time, but is there any solid reason to trust them? Like, voting patterns and the like? Anyways, last is Elkanah, who I don't really know much about. Protected Xino apparently? But then Xino went insane from making a Gram? I think that's a good point in his favor though, and since no one has counterclaimed him, sounds like the truth.

My top targets would be Elandera, Karnage, Experience, Fura, and then Devotary.

And so: Elandera Elandera

If I missed something about Elandera, @ me and I should have time tomorrow to reconsider. Or if we want to try and stall and not have a lynch or something, I can remove them, but that seems dangerous with how low the amount of attending players are left.

And that's all from me y'all. Thankfully I'ma be back home tomorrow evening, so if I'm still around, I hope I can be a much bigger force in the thread in terms of analysis and breaking down our win cons.

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I know it’s sort of rude, but I’m going to switch my votes. Burnt Burnt Lopen Lopen. It seems clear that Lopen isn’t going to die on the streets.

 @Straw are you sure that an elim’s read list would set off your lie detection?

Eh, I don't think it's rude. Sometimes life gets busy but that doesn't mean I think the game should stop for me. I'm still around, just can't do any big walls of analysis. I'm certainly not on the streets.

Fura or Karnage then. I'm certainly not voting on myself. I said I'd vote on the top target, which seems to be Karnage, so I'll stick to my word. I think I'd prefer that anyways, because I've really only let my gut decide about him, whereas I swear I had legitimate logic for why I read Fura as village.

Karnage Karnage

Let's see if this works

So yeah, I'm pretty dead ( irl :P) I wanna post stuff, but also it's a pain on my phone and I don't have my notes with me. Feel like I have a lot of things to say but can't latch on to one specific thing. Not sure how busy I'll be tomorrow, but if anyone @ me I probably can find time to answer them so I can contribute that way I guess. I would also appreciate vote tallies throughout as I'm only skimming.

I think Karnage and fura have votes? I don't like fura last minute voting me(like, c'mon guys can we chill) and if Hael was hoping for mastery maybe furas vote on him would have been meaningless? I was thinking there was something else villageish about Fura though, but now I can't remember. Karnage has felt village to me, but also new player so who knows at this point. I'd take you up on your offer to pm you but on my phone I just can't be bothered to do anything like that.

I believe Hael voted Devotary last round so that's probably not a good option. Doubt he'd risk Devotary getting expelled at this point. IDK then. I'll probably just vote on top target tomorrow.

I think that's the best I can muster. My brain is signing off now. 

Just can't post right now sorry peeps. Still helping my parents move, otherwise I'd be all up in this as this is when things get fun. Just have been very busy last few days.

I don't know if I should vote, but if consensus agrees somewhere I could pile on someone to help.

I may have some time to look at posts tonight, but I also might collapse in bed lol. 

Ok, not much time. I kinda feel like kynedath is a wasted lynch at this point. I said I'd lynch Devotary before, so I'll put my votes where my mouth is. Um, mobile voting...GMs might I ask your mercy and let you imagine these words are colored correctly. Kynedath(green) kynedath(green) Devotary(red)devotary(red)

They'd finally done it. Leo didn't know who, but someone had finally revealed a Skindancer. Strangely enough, this actually made Leo feel a little better. I'd been starting to worry it was all some strange plot to make us all paranoid, but now that we've actually found one, I feel much more resolve to find any more there might be. At the very least I feel less guilty about all of the finger pointing going around lately.

Leo finished his breakfast and made his way to class with a bit extra pep in his steps. I'll still need to be careful. It's unlikely one Skindancer could have caused all of this. No, I need to take a look at my fellow Students that much closer now. Hadn't Lin Wa recently been appointed Master? It seems the list of people to trust in the University just got much shorter.

So yes, well done! Unfortunate all 3 of the others with votes were expelled, but hopefully at least one is a Skindancer? If so, we may have just taken out 2 of them, which would be huge. It at least starts narrowing things down a good deal. Such as we'll know someone still attending the University sent in the sabotage if it hits someone also still attending.

Here's the list of attending students left:

That's 15 total. So just over half of what we started with. With the sabotage apparently hitting Xino, I'm even more inclined to trust he's village. Other than that, whoever killed Walin. I suppose one of the expelled could have been the one? That would be really unfortunate. Regardless, things are really heating up. At this point, not sure who I want to lynch. I think we should maybe be careful about mass expulsions though? I mean, it was unlucky how it happened this time with Zillah dying on the streets, but still. 

Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to make any sort of big reads list post any time soon. I'm going to help my parents move over the next few days, so my activity will be a bit lower than usual, and my posts will probably be a lot shorter as well as I'll likely only ever be on my phone during that time. 

Ninja'd...Elandera, I honestly didn't remember much of what Walin had posted, so him becoming Master was the first time he really became any kind of focus of mine, which is why I didn't have any sort of read on him. I'm not sure I agree with your suspicion of Fura either. I think I agree more with Araris' assessment that Walin wasn't actually trying to be misleading about his reads. I realize you suspect me and Fura so this might not help, but hey, that's how it be.  I like the initiative to give links to everything about Walin though.

I also think Rover's Plum Bob idea could be interesting. Not sure what kind of info that can actually give, but worth looking into I think. If there are any high level village Alchemists that is. At this point I would think there'd be at least one though.

Anyways, I should probably put a vote or two down. I'd be down for a lynch on Kynedath again, although they've been pretty inactive so I don't know how useful it would be. I'll go ahead and drop them on him, but I'll try to do some reviewing and see if I find anyone that seems like a better target. Kynedath Kynedath

1 hour ago, CadCom said:

I don't expect the RP to change your vote, just want the tuition reduction, and thought it would be fun to play off of. 

Cadici was walking to Archives for an elective class he had decided to take. It wasn't even a full month into the term, and he already began regretting his decision. Archives was definitely not the field he wanted to go into. He was leaning more towards physicking or Rhetorics. Maybe Naming, but that field just seemed too ambiguous for Cadici. 

"Hi Leo. I'm Cadici" Cadaci responded. After a brief pause he added "You're the one with complaints on me, right? Ehh no biggie, I've been a bit of a dumb kid at times I was just on my way to a class in Archives. Where you headed?" 

In his mind, Cadici began trying to figure out why Lopen would file two complaints against Cadici. 

Sure, I was stupid for skipping classes and throwing random people under the bus, but that was last term. It's a new term now. Why can't people just let me turn over a new leaf. Start over. 

His grades had been suffering for the first three terms, and even though Cadici was just a Ruh, it would be more than embarrassing to return home with out a diploma. He was the first person from his part of the Ruh village who had gone to college in 4 generations. (I've never actually read KKC, so I don't know if my Ruh village made any sense)

"Oh, Cadici, it's you," Leo shuffled his feet uncomfortably. "Right, sorry about that, it's just that, well...no offense, but it's not too common for Ruh to attend the University. Not to mention all of the skipping classes and such. Just seemed to me to be a peculiarity, and in these times peculiarity makes folks, me included, a bit on edge. I do apologize if I'm leaping to conclusions here, but hopefully the Master's will know whether to listen to me or not. I'm sure they'll have a better idea of what to think about your activities lately. Uh, anyways, where am I headed you asked? I've actually just come from the Rhetoric and Logic class. Quite an interesting lecture I must say. Not that I understood it completely mind you, but I enjoyed it nonetheless. Ah, but I'm getting sidetracked again. I'm currently on my way to get some lunch. After that I might take a short nap. It's been hard to get a good nights sleep with everything that's going on." At that, Leo started inching away. "So, em, I should probably be on my way. Good luck to you in the Archives. Try not to get lost. Felt like a maze last time I went wandering about in there."

3 hours ago, CadCom said:

 

1. Maybe this will make me more sus to all of you, but I think it needs to he said. You are still all assuming Bard is elim, when we still have no proof of that. You're voting on me or making me a suspect because I didnt vote on Bard. Well guess what? It's entirely possible still that Bard is village. In fact from their few posts after expulsion, I personally had a more village lean on them. 

 

Sure, it's not 100% that Bard is evil, but Xino has apparently scanned him twice and he was lying both times. He has yet to explain his second lie, or even really post anything since he was expelled. I feel like it's very likely Bard is an elim. Would be nice if we could get his alignment to make sure, but at this point I'm willing to make some assumptions based on him being evil.

1 hour ago, CadCom said:

Updated vote count (Not official)

Zillah(8): Haelbarde, CadCom, CadCom, Haelbarde, Elkanah, Elkanah, Experience, Experience.
Stink(2): Xino, Xino
Cadcom(2): Lopen, Lopen

I'm going to leave my vote on Zillah for now, but I also want to express how I hate that we seem to be doing this thing where we want to have people get expelled, so we just jump on the first available lynch just because it's someone we are mildly suspicious of or know very little about. I'd much rather have some other discussion about other possible elims.

Along the same lines, the idea that we just assume everyone we've expelled is elim is also very dangerous. It's exactly what we've done with Bard, and I don't like it. I've also decided within the last few minutes that it makes me suspicious of Lopen.

Ninja'd by Burnt and Straw. Thank you Straw for suggesting another new candidate, and not just voting for Zillah just for the purposes of expelling anyone. 

Again, there's some amount of proof about Bard. Do you think Xino is lying about his scans? I guess it's possible, and Bard has just given up trying to convince people he's innocent, but that doesn't seem likely to me.

I'm not going to assume everyone we expel is an elim. That doesn't make a lot of sense. If any of the players up for the lynch right now get expelled, I will absolutely not assume any of them are evil. It's just a very unique circumstance in Bard's case that I think makes it fairly safe to assume he's evil.

Leo hadn't been sleeping well the past few weeks. He'd started leaving a small lamp on in his room after more and more of his fellow Students had been cracking. It seemed to help ease his mind from worrying over what could be in the shadows.

It's like I'm a little kid again. he thought to himself as he groggily made his way to the University for his classes. He'd almost decided to just stay in bed for the day after hardly sleeping at all, but class was really the only time he could get his mind off of the situation he was in. He enjoyed the numbers in Arithmetics, as well as the logic side of things in the Rhetoric and Logic class. The Archives were a bit dull to him, as he'd never had much of a passion for reading. He found many of the arcane classes especially fascinating though, but was content to be more of an observer rather than an active participant. As he was trying to figure out a particularly interesting puzzle the Master Rhetorician had given him, he bumped into one of the other Students.

If anyone wants to get bumped into, feel free to respond. I think I'd be more motivated to RP if I'm not just doing introspective stuff lol.

16 hours ago, Elbereth said:

This is incorrect. Fae Lore is an action which you can use, and will roleblock a Skindancer if that is your target. It is not passive. (I also had this misunderstanding, though, so I apologize for not going back and making the rules clearer on that point.) 

EDIT: Also, Kynedath was brought on the Horns and charged with Undignified Mischief. Whoops. 

So Kynedath was brought on the Horns. Makes more sense lol.

Anyways, at this point, besides thinking Xino is likely village for revealing Bard(unless they're just passing on the scans from the real Linguist), I feel like I need to re-evaluate my reads at this point. Coda could have gone insane naturally, but if so, there would have been no sabotage. At least I can move on I suppose. If he breaks out, we can deal with it then.

Not many votes once again.

Zillah(1): Haelbarde
Stink(2): Xino, Xino

I guess I'd be fine with either of these? I don't really remember much of what either player has done, except that Stink did sorta defend Bard. I was surprised at Cadcom's votes last Month, especially putting one on Xino. If Xino is a village Linguist, maybe Cadcom was trying to take him down(or at least roleblock him) with him? Kynedath seems so inactive now I'm not sure it's worth going after him again. Hm. I'm just gonna post a player list with what info we know about each player and hopefully it helps me get a better grip on our current situation.

Nobles:

Commoners:

Edema Ruh:

Phew. So yeah, at this point I think Cadcom would be my preferred lynch. Cadcom Cadcom

If we end up needing to consolidate votes, I'll try to get on before rollover to move somewhere else. I'd prefer it if we get more votes down before the last hour though?

Updated vote tally:

Zillah(1): Haelbarde
Stink(2): Xino, Xino
Cadcom(2): Lopen, Lopen

I haven't really figured out the numbers, but how many people is too many people up for the lynch? I'm thinking anything over 5 makes it sorta unlikely anyone gets expelled?

19 minutes ago, Elandera said:

 

But first! @TheMightyLopen

Did I miss something? Where did we learn Bard was caught lying twice? I thought Xino only revealed he lied term 2.2?

Xino posted about it last Month.

Ok, that was a crazy end of Cycle. >> I'm gonna go play some D&D right now, but if I'm not too tired afterwards, I'll try and look over what actually happened and give my thoughts. Surprised no one actually got expelled. And Kynedath didn't even get brought on the Horns? Not sure how that's even possible.

19 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

 

You know what really bothers me? Lopen's quick switch in opinions. In the first post he's suggesting that we kill Bard, but doesn't even place his second vote on him- only his first.  He says that he's willing to place his second vote on Bard, too, if suspicion remains on him. But after six more votes fall on Bard, he suddenly takes objection to Coda's votes and moves both of his votes to them instead. He tops it all off by implying that Bard might not be evil after all.

 

Figured someone would bring this up. >> It was probably a mistake to switch my vote at that point, but I was feeling paranoid about all of the votes on Bard and whether or not it was a WGG. I can be very tinfoil-y, especially when I haven't slept for a long while like I had when I made that post. I'll admit it doesn't look particularly good if Bard really is evil, but I guess my only defense is that I'd like to think I'd be more careful with flip-flopping like that if I was an elim.

I do wish Kynedath would show up. I never like to lynch someone who hasn't had a chance to respond, but at this point I still feel he's the best target out of everyone who's been brought up.

12 hours ago, Straw said:

I'm going to vote on Furamirionind Furamirionind. I really dislike the extreme switch they've made on Silber (going from saying they were his highest suspicion to saying they were 99% village). It feels like an attempt to bait reactions.

I don't agree with the thought process here. I would think baiting reactions is more of a village thing to do?

19 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Well, I suppose that's fair... Though that extra line about waiting to post that... I don't see a reason for an elim to add that line unless it's true. And if it's true, I don't think he is an elim.
However, I did state before that I've never caught an Araris before, so if you are looking for hedging in my post, there it is. : P

Yeah, I agree that the lack of a public claim really doesn't mean anything. The fact that whoever this is clearly trusted Bard to some extent already narrows it down quite a bit. However I still do think it's safest to assume the elims have a Physicker, at least for the time being.

That's what I'm saying - I think Araris is clever enough to think through his posts enough to post something like that as an elim. You say you don't see a reason for an elim to post something like that, but isn't that a reason? Literally what elims should be trying to do is posting things that make the most sense from a village perspective.

In this case, I'm finding myself agreeing with a few of Araris' lynch targets, so I'm leaning village for him as well, but the point I'm making is that I think you're overvaluing his post to claim you have a strong village read on him. I have liked your posts this Month though, considering you have been one of only a few targets. I think I'm willing to back off for now, especially since I don't agree with Straw's reasoning for voting you. Fura (I will say I do feel bad voting for Ruh, so I'm trying to be careful in that regard. I did put a few contracts up to try and help them though, so maybe that would make up for a vote? )

13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Your counts are slightly off. Only 18 people cast votes, but 4 were insane, so only 5 people didn't vote: Burnt, Experience, Zillah, Walin, and Greenrover. Of these, Experience, Zillah, and Greenrover are relatively new players, so their lack of votes is slightly more sensible. Also, given that money is a resource for the elim team, and that voting (at least once) is an easy way to earn some cash, I'd anticipate that the elims probably all voted at least once. I think I should probably lump STINK in with the non-voters, since his votes on Fura were somewhat trolly.

Also, the following is somewhat wrong:

Hael and Devotary didn't place a second vote. edit: I realize that you mentioned that

Come to think of it, here's the list of players that only voted once: Hael, Devotary, Rath, Cadcom, Kynedath. This to me seems like the place elims would hide. (STINK could also fit in here, since he did end up getting the tuition reduction without committing to much).

Hael has been posting a lot of content, although all of his reads are village/neutral, which isn't helpful. I'm going to wait before voting on him.

I can understand why Rath voted only once on Coda, but that doesn't explain why he didn't use his second vote. Also, I think a lot of Coda's posts have been RP, although not clearly discernible as such. So I question Rath's vote here.

Devotary voted on Bard only at the end of the cycle, and only once. That's pretty suspicious to me.

Cadcom had two votes out, and then place a single vote on Fura. I'm hesitant about this, since in his shoes I would have voted Bard+Fura, to make sure that spreading votes didn't hinder the lynch of Bard, which CadCom claimed to support. 

Kynedath voted on Burnt for hedging about a WGG on Bard. Of course, it's usually impossible to tell if a WGG occurred, and just mentioning it is a good idea so people don't put their trust in the wrong places. So I probably disagree both with this vote, and the fact that it was singular. I'm also disappointed that Kynedath never took a stance on Bard.

In conclusion, I'm happy to vote on Rath, Devotary, Cadcom, or Kynedath, and Devotary is probably the highest suspicion out of those. RP to come later perhaps.

I'd probably be willing to lynch Devotary or Kynedath. I'd have to go back over Cadcom and Rath's posts before I decide about them.

I've thought Kynedath has been going under the radar for a bit now, and I also disagree with his vote on Burnt for the mention of a WGG. I think she would have done that regardless of alignment(hers or Bards).

Devotary, I think I'm partially biased against, because at the moment, I'm fairly trusting of you and Karnage, and that only leaves myself, Green Rover, Coda, Elandera, and Devotary left as Nobles. I've had a mild village read on Elandera since pretty early on, and I think there was some reason I mildly trusted Green Rover, which leaves Devotary and Coda as my top two suspects for Noble Skindancer(s). However, that's sorta class bias, and I think that's a risky reason to actually lynch someone for. Admittedly, I haven't seen anything that makes me think they're village, which I suppose could be said is reason to suspect them. 

So yeah, I think I have more genuine reason to suspect Kynedath as opposed to mostly circumstantial things for Devo. If a lynch on Kynedath doesn't gain traction though, I would be willing to stack my votes on Devotary to protect from Golden Pony+R&L shenanigans if he is a Skindancer. Kynedath Kynedath

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Apologies for basically vanishing yesterday, but now I'm back and I felt bad when I read that  As part of the 1-elevation-gang, t'would be rude of me to deny you the chance to enter our prestigious ranks

Bard is expelled which I guess is coolio if elevating him was bad but uh did anyone actually bother verifying the whole 'was it a WGG' thing'? Or have smarter minds dismissed that as not a viable play for various reasons idk people are getting too many actions now too many 3rd and 2nd level people who can just bop things out probably. 

Maybe I should drop some analysis but I'm not sure who on so maybe I'll roll a dice on it or something

Well Bard has been caught lying 2 Months in a row(assuming Xino is telling the truth, but it would seem very risky for them to be lying about this), so I think the whole WGG thing doesn't have as much impact. I was wary of lynching Bard because I thought the first lie could have possibly been something we overlooked, and if so, we'd just be finishing off someone the elims just sabotaged, but at this point it's looking more and more like it was indeed a WGG. But also, that's why it would be nice to see Bard's alignment. The second linguistics scan does help though, because it would be even riskier for Xino to lie about that one unless they're the only Linguistics person, because someone else could have also realistically used Linguistics Analysis on Bard last Turn as well.

Leo walked out of class with a grin on his face.

Finally, something went right! Looks like luck is back on my side! One of the Masters had called on him to do a demonstration he had not at all expected, but in the end he'd somehow managed to pull it off! The Master had even seemed a little impressed!

After the unpleasant business of an expulsion happening earlier, Leo had felt like there was a dark cloud hanging over everything, but this helped him push all of that out of his mind and back to his carefree ways. That Catalan fellow even apologized for accusing him! Leo had definitely not expected that.

Leo paused. Maybe things are going a little too well at the moment, he thought to himself. You never wanted to have too much good luck all at once. That usually meant an equally large amount of bad luck was just around the corner. That's what his father had always told him anyways. But then what did he know? He was extremely well off, and it seemed any business venture he attempted was successful. Or...wait, maybe that meant he actually did know what he was talking about? Leo shrugged. I guess it can't hurt to take an extra precaution or two. Maybe hide some of my money in my boots or something. Avoid ladders. Wasn't there something about cats and bad luck? Best to avoid them as well just in case.

So, Bard was expelled. At this point, probably would be worth it to send a kill on him, but it's not necessary in terms of wincon(only need to expel Skindancers) and isn't quite as likely to go through(if the Physicker that protected him is evil, they should have Cheating Death available now). If someone's got 30 Talents lying around(if that's what Assassins still cost that is), good luck to you if you want to try it. Or if we've got a high level Namer, but that probably risks Insanity, so I'd advise caution if you don't have any Physicker to help you.

9 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I'm now 99% certain Silberfarben is village. Silber had a solid suspicion that only DeTess and I contested. I was actually expecting there to be an elim push for either DeTess or myself (probably DeTess though) to be lynched this turn based off of that. However, with DeTess going insane, that would hurt that effort a bit. I don't think Silber would give up an opportunity like that. I'm not explaining this great, but hopefully what I'm saying makes sense. Lol

Also, thank you Hael for posting the player list. I've had to keep going back to the initial thread for it. xD
Well, I haven't done a player by player reads list yet, which I see as somewhat of an oversight by me. So here it goes. I'm not going to do these in any specific order. I'm basically just going to do those I find easiest first to get something out, and then I'll move on.

  Reveal hidden contents

(inserting after finishing... I ended up just going after the nobles... But after Finishing Elandera (who I did last. Lol) I ran out of energy... So I'll come back to Coda And Devotary who I haven't done yet.

Elandera
Started by defending nobles very adamently. Though I think that's NAI for the first cycle of the game.

It might just be me here, but this sentence doesn't seem to be coming from the perspective of a noble. Why would anyone fear the Nobles in Imre? What kind of power would they have? They could kill people, they could defend themselves, and they could make contracts. However they wouldn't have any actions, couldn't vote, or PM most players. If I was a noble, that's not personally how I'd like to play the game, but I wouldn't fear that. A bit suspicious IMO.

 

This post is interesting. Starts going through Lopen's posts, and makes quite a few good points about Xino. However it is interesting that she just jumps to Xino without considering Bard at all. Most of the thread did the opposite, jumping on Bard and considering Xino later. She refers to the lie as "Bard's apparent lie", Then does analysis to put a reasonable suspicion on Xino, and doesn't talk about Bard at all, or say/imply she will look into Bard at all.
This is all kind of circumstantial, but what I find really suspicious is that she voted on Xino and Bard. In what universe are, at this point, Xino and Bard both elims? I could maybe see some elim compositions trying a gambit like this, but the likelihood is only worth considering once both flip good in my opinion.

tl:dr - This has all the elements of hedging on a perceived lost lynch. Attacking the accuser, ignoring the "lynchee", voting on Bard, and even (for this game) spreading out the votes.

Karnage - Village
While most of the content isn't really AI, they just sound super villager-y. With all the questions and pings in thread as well, I'm inclined to think they are village. They were my strongest village read for a while, mostly just because of this.

Araris - Strong Village
I don't believe I've ever caught Araris when he has been an elim or neutral or whatever... But here it goes.
In turn 2.1, Araris basically creates the movement for in-thread interactions and voting to become more useful for the village. This seems very villager-y to me... Though the game is also more fun as an elim when people are trying to find you, so that's not something that should clear him necessarily. However, what I think does a lot more to clear him, is him saying "I wanted to wait and see who would suggest that we continue spreading votes out.". While this might normally be a bad thing, if an elim was trying to do this, I think they would do this at the beginning of the cycle because they are either doing this to make the game more fun, or because an elim isn't getting elevated in a certain field and they want to narrow down the competition. Either way, they want the thread Expelling people ASAP. This line suggests that Araris considered saying this at the beginning of the turn and had the opportunity, yet didn't for the sake of information. This is super villager-y. 
I'm going to stop looking into Araris' posts because this alone has me convinced. However if I get stuck later, I might come back to him if I'm also convinced of everyone else.
 

@GreenRover - Slight elim? Maybe?
Didn't post at all last turn. The previous post was an RP vote against Karnage, pretty meaningless imo...
The post before that was interesting though, in turn 1.2

This line I find specifically interesting. First, I'm not sure what you are saying when you say three turns is long enough to become semi-cleared. If that was the case, the game would likely be just about over now : P. However I may be misunderstanding, so please clarify if you wouldn't mind. =)
The thing I find interesting is your use of the term "fellow Skinwalkers". Also, I will ask that no one responds to this prompt for GreenRover. I fully believe they are capable of responding themselves. *Looks at Straw* : P

Bard
Is expelled, so we can kind of not worry about him being an elim for a while. If he is one, he can still technically kill anyone else expelled or not in the University... However, it's more beneficial to analyse those inside the University. If something else happens people think garners suspicion on Bard, they could have him assassinated to see a flip, though I don't think that's needed quite yet.

Lopen - Village
While I had some suspicions on Lopen early on, since then Lopen has been putting a lot of effort into solving the game, has come up with suspicions and seems to be having a fairly village mindset. I'm not going to do this right now, but Lopen is probably the one person in the game almost (if not everyone) in the game has given thoughts on. Going through and following what people are saying about Lopen at what times will probably, at this point, be a better way of analysing him than actually looking at his own posts.

 

Summary of my post: I'm going to put both votes on Elandera. = )

Elandera, Elandera

I think I get your point, and I do like Silber's train of thought in that post about you and DeTess. But saying you're 99% sure he's village just from that kinda seems like "pocketing." (I think that's the right term) You also do something similar in this post about Araris, someone I'm confident is experienced enough to have posted what he did as an eliminator.

I do find Elandera voting on both Xino and Bard a little odd, but not something necessarily evil? I've found villagers actually tend to say and do quite a few odd things over the course of a game, whereas eliminators try to avoid anything that would draw attention to themselves.

This post just feels off to me overall. Maybe it's just how confident you are in your reads when I don't remember you being so much before. Feels like you're making leaps to trust people that aren't quite there. Fura

I'm also still quite suspicious of Coda, but I feel I may be tunneling a bit at this point, so I'm not going to put another vote on him unless a lynch on him gets some traction, in which case I would be willing to lynch him. For now though, I think my time would be better spent looking at other players I haven't focused on much yet.

1 hour ago, Young Bard said:

 

Lopen jumps fairly quickly to the idea of killing me, but seems to hedge a little about it, like he might be able to distance himself later if I flipped village. Though honestly, thinking about it, it probably isn’t such a bad idea for people who can afford them to start using assassins, since the village really needs the info. I’d prefer it not to be on me, but… such is life. Maybe at least wait until a Linguist can confirm I was telling the truth this cycle before you send the assassins after me. So, I get a slight Skindancer impression from Lopen’s post overall?

---

 

Well. After everything that people had posted(WGG possibility, linguistic scan, you hitting El'the), I think I got kinda hyped up. Then, after thinking about how many times I've fallen for theories about WGG's or some other convoluted ways to be suspicious of someone, I was hesitant to actually call for a kill straight up. Now I'm really second-guessing myself. >>

1 hour ago, Coda said:

After some thought, I am retracting my votes on Lopen Lopen as this suspicion is baseless. While I personally like Bard, the lying does bother me enough to vote Bard. If you are innocent, you have managed to convince a good number of my stronger trusts against you. Congratulations.

This really bothers me...feels like Coda knows Bards innocent. Bard Coda I'd prefer to wait and see if we get some confirmation about whether Bard's lie could have been from his RP or reads list thing, but I have to sleep now. I really should not be awake right now.

7 hours ago, Coda said:

As I have been advised to act upon my suspicion by a person I do not distrust, Lopen Lopen. @TheMightyLopen, my least sincere apologies.

4 hours ago, Coda said:

 

Lopen: Hasn't said much besides RP.  (I have partially gotten over my residual animosity. I will attempt to keep our relationship professional)

Ah, this is what I was kind of wary of happening. You're using our RP clashing as a reason to vote, which I see as basically an excuse not to give a vote based on suspicion. Honestly, I wouldn't mind you voting on me except that you've literally said you're only voting because I accidentally caused the lashings on you. >> You're now also looking to get justification from people in thread for your votes, which is another thing that doesn't sit right with me. Coda

I've looked over Bard's posts, but don't see any other obvious statement that he would have lied about that would be an innocent lie. I'm content with putting my second vote on him unless something new comes up(and might move my first one as well if needed). I also agree with Araris that him already reaching El'the could be another sign that he's a Skindancer. I remember in LG18 I was suspicious of one of the Skindancers partially for that very reason(they were an early El'the in a field that wasn't being studied much...I think it was Alchemy?). I don't remember how it was in LG33, but it makes sense that if they're coordinating their EP into separate fields they'll have a high chance of elevating faster in a specific field than the village. Bard

I will say this. If there's no new information that clears Bard to some extent, I think we should actually try to kill him rather than just expelling him. For one, if it was a Skindancer Physicker that used Cheating Death on him, they'll be "exhuasted" where they won't be able to do so this Month, meaning this might be our best chance at actually killing him. Another thing that would help is getting absolute confirmation of his alignment. I'm always wary of trickery until I actually see the GM(s) post that red text. Bard, if this is just some mix up and we missed something obvious, sorry for being so bloodthirsty. I just would really like to see some alignments at this point. 

Holy moly, that was a lot of posts/votes while I was asleep...speaking of, I did not expect to sleep for 10 hours straight. I was planning on getting up and checking things a couple hours before rollover and try to join a lynch that looked good, but unfortunately my body decided otherwise.  Not sure if I would have moved my votes though, considering I was a top candidate. >> Guess Leo's luck actually did change a bit though considering I didn't even get lashings!

Here's the vote tally from last Month as far as I can tell:

Bard(6): Xino, Kynedath, Fura, Fura, Devotary, Devotary
Lopen(6): DeTess, Striker, CadCom, Bard, Araris, Araris
Walin(2): Karnage, Experience
Striker(1): Straw, CadCom
Straw(1): Striker
Devotary(1): Lopen
Green Rover(1): Lopen
Rathmaskal(1): Elkanah,
Elandera(1): Karnage
Experience(1): Xino 
Zilla(1): Straw
Coda(1): Elandera
Karnage(1): Elandera
Araris(2): Straw, Haelbarde

I believe that's all of them. However, anyone at the Golden Pony or players elevated in R&L could have affected that in some way. So yeah, if I'm being completely honest, I very likely wouldn't have moved my votes even if I had been awake. Maybe would have moved one to Bard just for the bandwagon. >>

Anyways, there seems to be a lot to look at here, with as many real votes that were placed, and 2 attacks(or 1 attack and Striker went Insane naturally?). All in all, I think that was a much better Month in terms of information just from the thread, even if no one was expelled. Hopefully this gives scanners good targets to gather information.

Aaand ninja'd by the GM. Hm. So Bard was the one attacked. Interesting. So which one is the sabotage target? I would say Bard because of his elevations, but he was getting lynched. Maybe the Skindancers got caught off guard and weren't able to change the order? Or just decided to leave it? I don't see much reason to sabotage Striker(a Ruh with no elevations) at this point, although a few people did mention they were reading him as village. Mm, I suppose I could see a village Namer attacking Bard after all of those votes. Although I think when I attacked Mailliw in LG18 with Naming and it didn't kill him because it was too weak of an attack, he was sent to the Medica instead of saying he "survived." I'll have to check. I feel like there's actually a lot to check right now, so I'll just post this and get back with y'all on the rest.

Vote tally:

DeTess, you missed Fura. They're also Ruh.

I don't think I have it in me to do analysis on the other 17 players like I did for the Nobles, but here's my current thoughts on them at least.

I agree with DeTess on Striker. His posts have given me villager vibes. Granted, I feel like his vote on me was sorta bandwagon-ish, but it was a second vote on a player, meaning he's not too afraid of drawing attention to himself should he be wrong. Kynedath is another player I agree with DeTess on for the exact reasons he posted. Cadcom and Elkanah however, I don't have any kind of read yet. Haelbarde is another player I've never been able to read. From what I can remember he seems to be playing his normal game. Fura, I'm probably biased against because of their votes on me last Month and their subsequent silence about me this Month. Idk, I kinda thought they'd have something to say considering a few other people have spoken up about me at this point. Feels non-committal or something.

Commoners:

Burnt - Mm, hard for me to read. We've PM'd a bit back and forth, but I don't know if that's ever really helped me get an accurate read on her. I have absolutely been cagey in them because I feel like I usually give you way too much information and regret it later.  She claimed to have spread her EP around and that's why she was elevated twice. I guess I'd read that as more village-y since eliminators usually would have some sort of plan. But she's probably just doing that so we think that very thing! 
DeTess - I'm very conflicted about DeTess. I like the activity, but I feel a bit uneasy about her. Considering she's also been elevated twice, I think it's a good idea to keep a close eye on her.
Straw - I like the activity, and the graphs/stats. I'm not sure it's particularly indicative of alignment though. I've got a bad gut read on him, but I've mislynched Straw a couple times before, so idk.
Xino - I've had a village gut read on Xino since pretty early. I don't remember if it was from something specific or not. Just that their posts sounded village-y. Asking Cadcom that is a bit strange though I have to say.
Lord Silberfarben - No read
Experience - No read
Zillah - No read
Rathmaskal - No read
Stink - Not sure that I've ever had a read on Stink. >>
Walin - No read
Bard - Like Kynedath, is someone I'd expect to have seen more from. I don't remember much of what he's said so far, so I'll definitely want to go back and check his posts.
Sart - Insane

I believe that is everyone. Like I've said before, I'm finding it pretty difficult to get any solid reads. I will try and check out those players I don't have any sort of read on at some point.

Leo cursed his luck. Things had started so well for him here, but the last few weeks had been some of the worst he could remember. More and more students were losing their minds, he'd lost a chunk of his stipend he was receiving each month at a gambling house, and when he'd gone to the Eolian to try to relax, he'd gotten booed off the stage almost immediately. Now it seemed some of his fellow students were pointing fingers at him, saying he might be a Skindancer of all things!

I mean, I know my singing is bad, but I'm not sure I've ever had someone accuse me of being inhuman for it! Well, hopefully my luck will change soon. Maybe I used all of my bad luck at that cursed gambling house.

He tried to focus on class, but found it increasingly difficult with everything that was going on. The teacher was saying something about "everything had a true Name" or whatever. Leo really didn't get it, so let his mind wander to other subjects. Fellow students, Skindancers, how to arrange his leftover coin to look like more than it was. The usual things.

GM's could we get a vote count?

Ok, the promised analysis! Prepare to be amazed! (ok but actually don't put your expectations too high )

I think I will go player by player rather than a front to back thread analysis. That way even if I don't finish, I'll have some better groundwork set up to go from later. That being said, I think I'll start with Nobles and end with Ruh. Considering two Nobles have already been sabotaged and I am also a Noble, that makes it a fairly small group to go over.

Nobles:

Lopen - apparently going under the radar, but working on fixing that as I type this out! What a great guy!
Elandera - First Month, mostly posts about spreading the votes out, but not just on Nobles. Mentioned fields of study in her RP, even asking Karnage about what they might go into. Could be fishing for info on what players are going for? Not terribly suspicious, but I thought I'd point it out. Second Month, suggests spreading the votes out as much as possible because of Coda getting lashings. At this point in the game it seemed like most players were content to spread out votes rather than be aggressive with them, including me, so I can't fault her too much without risk of looking hypocritical.  Suggests being careful about trusting DeTess and Araris simply because they want to use the lynch more aggressively. While I agree with her point that Skindancers would also want to expel villagers, if we later find she's evil, I think I'd be more inclined to trust DeTess and Araris from this comment. However, I do like that she said something with some alignment indicative potential. In my experience, eliminators tend to be careful saying something like this, as if one of Araris or DeTess is her teammate, she wouldn't want to try to remove any trust they'd be gaining, and if both of them were villagers, she'd probably be wary of soft-clearing them in the event that she was caught. Posted saying they'll try to be more involved this Turn. Overall, slight village lean. Would definitely appreciate some more player specific thoughts though!
Coda - First post is RP about his potential fields of study. Could be purely flavor, but if not, seems slightly more village than elim? I wouldn't think a Skindancer would reveal their plans in the thread. RNG vote Month 1. RP feud with me. Month 2 only posted once, all RP with a RP vote on me. Last Month, one small post with a vote on Karnage for a tuition reduction. Hm. Kinda surprised at the lack of posts lately. He did get the lashings, which means he can't do a lot in terms of University stuff, but hopefully he can be a bit more involved in discussion. Overall, mixed feelings. Won't vote on him again unless I have good reason 'cause I feel slightly guilty about his lashings. >>
Karnage - I believe this is his first game. I'm finding it tough to point out specifics, but he's sounded genuine in his questions and seems to be pretty open with his thoughts. Slight village lean, but I like to stay wary of new players as I really have no base to go off of.
Devotary - Really didn't see anything worth pointing out from going over Devotary's posts. Which is a little surprising. Posted a decent amount of how much we would need to spread out votes to minimize risk of players being brought on the Horns. A decent amount of RP. Not much player specific posts however. I know in the past I found it difficult to read Devotary based on their playstyle, so I'm ok with giving them more time before trying to put any sort of pressure on them. Overall, neutral read. Maybe slightly suspicious?
Araris - Another I have had trouble reading in the past, he seems to be playing his normal game from what I can tell. He wants to use the lynch to pressure the Skindancers, which I agree with, but I think he'd say something similar regardless of alignment. Double vote Straw last Month. Overall, neutral read. Honestly, I will likely focus players besides Devotary and Araris simply because I have never been able to read them accurately. The only times I remember being right about them was when I'd had mostly village reads on other players and was only suspicious of either of them by process of elimination.
Green Rover - Looks like this is his second game. Not a lot of posts, and most of those are RP. Brought up some sort of plan to clear players by having them stay on the streets? Sounds far too risky, but it didn't seem ill-intentioned. Voted on Karnage in retaliation for his votes on him for being the last RP person to see Sart's character. Overall, slight village lean for posting a unique idea. Hoping for more activity/involvement in the lynch though, as a retaliatory vote is one of the most uninformative ways to vote.
HH - Insane. First eliminator target
Lumgol - Insane. Assumed third eliminator target. Aside from staying at the Mews, I don't believe there's another way she would have gone insane. Pretty safe to assume she was sabotaged.

Phew. Ok, so looking back over things, I think Elandera is definitely my most village reads out of the Nobles. I suspect there's at least one Skindancer Noble, but I can't say any of the others have stood out to me in an obviously negative way. I find it unlikely one of HH or Lumgol would be a Skindancer and they were sabotaged as a sort of WGG(and even if that is the case, I think the Skindancers would only try that if they had another Noble as well). If I absolutely had to choose, I'd probably guess Devotary. But that's really a shot in the dark.

I'll continue with commoners and Ruh tomorrow. Can't believe the Nobles alone took over 2 hours... >>

Hmph. I don't want to be accused of putting off a vote again, so I'll go ahead and drop a vote on Devotary and Green Rover to prod them into giving more player specific analysis. Any suspicions so far for either of you? What do you think about using the lynch more aggressively than we have so far?

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Oh, you're right...

Well in that case, there still is a bit of an issue where few people are discussing game-related material, and votes have had no point the past 2 turns, so there is very little info. That being said, I did reread Sart/HH's posts to try to figure out why they were killed. HH seems to have been a low information kill. He was also a noble, so that was also probably another thing to his detriment. At the end of T1.1, he had only made 2 RP posts. Sart on the other hand was encouraging focus on the elims, and playing this game more or less like a normal elim game. 
The elims this game are/have probably been quick to try to make this feel like a FFA game, which it sort of does feel like, as we are all competing against each other for abilities.

I also felt like an elim would want to distract from the fact that Sart's death was premeditated. DeTess started saying things like this, but then did acknowledge that Sart was attempting to progress the game. Lopen also said something similar, where he Acknowledged that Sart had made these votes yet thought the kill was random none-the-less. Bard just said he thought the kill was random.

Of these 3 people, I'm inclined to think that DeTess is village at the moment. Leaving Bard and Lopen.

Bard has made 2 game related posts. Both of which are predominately NAI.

Lopen has made quite a few posts. I believe he originated the idea of spreading out votes, which primarily benefits the elims. The main issue I have with voting him on this though, is that no one wants to die in this game. So playing this game as if it is not an elim game, is not necessarily something a villager wouldn't do. Lopen also was discussing the very strange idea of the HH kill being a WGG... Something which would make more sense for an elim going into Naming to do in my opinion. Again, I'm conflicted on saying this is AI at all though because the ruleset of this game encourages talking regardless of the topic... So it would make sense for someone to jump on a topic and draw it out, regardless to what that would normally mean about the player.
Lastly, Lopen keeps putting off voting, each time they make a game related post. Again, this isn't necessarily AI as there is very little content spread out between 25 players and lots of RP, making it very difficult for a villager to make a good vote. However, this is also traditionally a sign of an elim.

These things all being said, my conclusion is game analysis isn't fun... Lol

Why Not?

Lumgol
Lopen Lopen

Edit: This is normally the point in a game where I'd PM Lopen before posting to try and get more info, but with only 2/3 posts in thread, I can't guarantee I could PM like normal either.

Hm. Do you think the eliminators sabotaged Sart for his approach for how we should play? That seems like a reach to me, considering his votes were basically poke votes. It didn't seem like he was going to be actively going after either one of his votes at that point, at least to me, so that's why I said it seemed random.

I don't think I originated the idea of spreading out votes. I've certainly gone with it up to this point, but I'm all for using the lynch to pressure players. I've always preferred to use the lynch to gather information rather than relying on abilities, because it makes the thread much more active and it's usually the only reliable way for the village to catch eliminators. You're not wrong that I've put off voting, but that's because I simply haven't had the time to do much analysis lately. I had a vote on me though, and not a lot of others had votes on them at the time, so I voted for Rath and Burnt because I'd rather not get randomly brought on the Horns. I should absolutely have more time this next Month to put some solid player analysis down. I've looked over the first Month already, but would like to look over everything else before I try to draw any conclusions. Definitely hold me to it though!

All in all, I do appreciate that you took the time to put your votes somewhere with meaning, but I obviously don't agree with how you interpreted my posts.  

What makes you think DeTess is village? I do like how much they've posted, but can't say I've seen anything that popped out to me as especially village. I'll admit that I've found them difficult to read in previous games, so I'm curious what made you lean that way.

Vote tally:

Zillah(1): DeTess
Araris(1): Lord Silberfarben
Green Rover(2): Karnage, Karnage
Lopen(1): Xino
Elandera(1): Bard
Karnage(1): Coda
Lumgol(1): Elkanah
Devotary(1): Lumgol
Rathmaskal(1): Lopen
Burnt(1): Lopen

Hm. I'm only about halfway done with my read through the past Term, and I'm getting pretty sleepy. For now, I will drop my votes on Rathmaskal and Burnt(sorry it was RNG I swear ). That's 10 players with votes on them. Kinda low actually. These are the Nobles and Commoners left, if anyone wants to spread them out more: Coda(already got lashings though), Bard(brought on the Horns once), Stink, Straw, DeTess, Lord Silberfarben, Walin, Experience(brought on the Horns this Month), Xino(brought on the Horns once).

I wanted to a more in depth post here, but I'm finding it pretty difficult to notice anything worth voting on so far. I suppose I'm not against relying a bit more on abilities rather than the lynch this time around, but I'll keep looking regardless. As Hael mentioned, there are actually quite a few creative ways to find eliminators in this one, so it's ok to be less aggressive with votes.

I agree with pretty much all of the points being made about Linguistics Analysis. This is a game for fun, so everyone should be allowed to play as they like. As for me, I am almost always honest in the thread. PM's are where I tend to be a bit more shifty with what I say.  I will keep try to keep that ability in mind though, so if someone does scan me, it will come up as honest.

Anyways, I might be able to get another post out tomorrow before rollover, but for now, goodnight!