TheMightyLopen

Well played Lum and converts! I was totally wrong about you Lum. The Day I was lynched I had it narrowed down to you or Levitaph, and I was like, 95% sure it was Levitaph.

Fura, you had me waffling on whether you were really a convert with that PM, but at that point it just made too much sense to me that you'd have been converted. However, if Lum had been lynched, I may have started to reconsider since you had gone after her quite a bit at that point.

All in all, I had a lot of fun trying to narrow down targets for Sja-Anat and who they might have converted(I was right about that at least), and even though I didn't create anything cool with them, I thought the Essences were interesting! I also got my item stolen and was lynched the Turn I got Bonded, so that was kinda sad...but it was a fun game! Thanks Steel and Maill for running it!

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

['color=green]Levitaph['/color] ['color=red]Lumgol['/color]

without the " ' " parts.

Levitaph Lumgol

Well dang, I guess I'll move my vote to Lumgol then. I'd really prefer if you guys would decide where to put your votes earlier in the Cycle, since I really don't have time to make a substantial post, so Lumgol(red) Levitaph(green). I'm on mobile so could you GMs maybe just accept that I can't remember the coding and just imagine the names are colored in?  @Steeldancer

11 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The main way I see for Rath to currently be a convert is if he used up all but two lives bonding other people, lost a life to the lynch, and then was converted last night, which would mean nobody was converted during the day. I don't think that's particularly likely, so chances are good that Rath is still a villager. The risks of him being converted later are somewhat higher, though I want to think that Rath encouraging the elims to kill him suggests that he has enough lives left to be immune to conversion.

So you've moved Levitaph all the way up on your Sja-Anat suspect list, and are now on the convert hunt. It is probable that a couple of the more active players are converts, though I would not necessarily rule out anyone who's been around to vote and submit actions. I've said that Rath is an unlikely convert, a Cryptic isn't the most valuable role for an elim team, and I've been thinking Sart wasn't evil on D2. That leaves an unfortunate number of players as possibilities, so we'll have to check whose opinions rapidly changed from cycle to cycle.  Also, did you make liquid metal C1 and then gather the essences necessary to make a large fire later on, or did you use your early fire and oil to create the large fire you burned Ark with?

With Rath confirmed Stormfather, I'm pretty sure that the D1 and D2 swings were not both the result of elims attempting to save a teammate(see my D3 post). Dapper voted on Lum yesterday(oddly, with an emoticon that made Sart change his vote. I'm not sure what's going on there). Of the remaining people who swung the D2 lynch, Levitaph barely showed up and didn't vote, while you voted for Rath before anyone voted for Lum. The problem with an information lynch on a village Lum is that if Lopen's guesses are right about the current number of elims, it would be very easy to end up 6-4 next cycle, which could get very ugly if our habitual non-voters are villagers. I don't know how likely it is for Lum to be village though. While elim!Rath+Lum turned out to be a flawed theory, Lum is still a major Sja-Anat suspect.

I did create Liquid Metal C1, yes. I actually used Fire and Plant to make a Large Fire.

At this point, yeah, I'm not sure we can win if we mislynch again. Which makes an information lynch a really bad idea. As for Lum, I do think the only way she's evil is if she's Sja-Anat, but I just don't think she is. That leaves me with pretty much Levitaph I think.

If this were the board game Clue, here is my official guess!

Levitaph - Sja-Anat
Fura - Convert
Devotary - Convert

Sart - Village right now, but the elims aren't going after him in thread because they want to convert him this upcoming Night Turn. They want to use a suicide conversion alongside their kill(s) to hammer next Cycle. I say kill(s) because it's possible they have an Ashspren.

As such, Sart, if you are village, I think lynching Levitaph this Turn is our best shot at winning, so you can't get converted and the village keeps your vote manipulation. I will help lynch Fura if you're not comfortable with lynching Levitaph, but for now I'm voting Levitaph.

Here's some more explanation as to why I think this is the elim team. First of all, Devotary and Fura were trusted by Fifth because they claimed provable roles early on. I think this rules them out for being Sja-Anat. Sart and Snipexe have all but proven their roles. Xino and Shqueeves have been too inactive to be Sja-Anat(in my opinion). Rath is the Stormfather. Ark claimed Stonespren and Burning Snipexe. Lying about your role in thread on D3 is too risky for Sja-Anat I think, because there's a role scanner ability probably out there somewhere. I know I'm not Sja-Anat, and similarly, I claimed to Fifth on D1. That leaves Lumgol, Dr Dapper, and Levitaph. Lumgol and Dr Dapper have both felt to me that they have nothing to lose with their posts. Lumgol has also been under constant suspicion, and is now being voted on by my top suspects. Dr Dapper's posts just seem way too carefree and flippant, and they also apparently have claimed to Rath this Cycle? Rath, an update on that would be nice. Anyways, that leaves Levitaph. A new player who has, in my opinion, seemed fairly competent but hasn't been under much attention at all. They didn't want to claim to Fifth, which isn't condemning evidence by itself, but at this point, with almost everyone else having some transparency with their abilities, definitely draws my attention. I can't say Levitaph has done anything blatantly suspicious, but by process of elimination, he's my best guess.

One more thing to add that is that I think Fura and Devotary have largely ignored Levitaph, and similarly Levitaph hasn't really had any interactions with them either. Something I noticed going back through levitaph's posts is that they mentioned suspicion of Devotary at one point but haven't brought it up again since then.

Vote tally:

Lumgol(3): Ark, Fura, Levitaph
Fura(1): Sart
Levitaph(1): Lopen

Vote tally:

Lumgol(3): Fura, Ark, Levitaph

Well Lumgol, looks like it's been decided.  Fura, 5 elims out of 17 players in a conversion game with the potential for a suicide/conversion would be insanely broken. I'm hoping there's only 3 elims and Sja-Anat is at her last life honestly, but I wouldn't bet on that. My guess is either 2 elims + 2 life Sja-Anat or 3 elims + last life Sja-Anat.

Remaining players:

1. Fura - Village leader sorta. My highest suspect for convert at this point. I can't really point to one thing that makes me think he's been converted, but I feel like it makes too much sense for him not to be converted.
2. Lumgol - Village punching bag. Ok, so I kinda get the suspicion for Lumgol, as I do think they've been kind of erratic, but I certainly don't think they're a convert. Lumgol, if you could claim and prove your role in some way, I think that would help a lot in clearing up your alignment. One reason I don't really like the Lumgol lynch is because most players are suspicious of them to some degree, and it stands to reason that some of those players are elims at this point. Could be a bus, but it seems unnecessarily early for a bus. I feel like bussing usually happens when a teammate is too far gone to be saved, not at the beginning of a Day.
3. Xino - Fairly inactive. Not a likely convert target, and I wouldn't say they're a likely Sja-Anat either. Wouldn't consider lynching.
4. Rath - Stormfather. Confirmed village up until this Turn. They could have been converted I suppose. I don't think it's wise to tell them all of our roles, although funny enough it kinda makes me think they weren't converted as suggesting that might bring a lot of attention to them.
5. Snipexe - Cryptic, basically confirmed. I don't really see the point in converting Snipexe honestly, so I think they're village.
6. Ark - Stonespren. Burned Snipexe. Constantly confuses me because I can't figure out if I suspect them or not.  Leaning village a bit right now, but I'm very unsure. Oh yeah, I Burned you. Sorry about that actually. I sent in the action after posting that theory, but I forgot about it when I woke up and decided my theory was a little too over the top.
7. Devotary - Urrrrk, idk. Potentially converted, simply because most players view them as village, and they're a good player.
8. Levitaph - A potential Sja-Anat I think. Active enough, but not a huge contributor. I read them as village initially, but they are new, so that's probably a garbage read. I really don't know much about them.
9. Shqueeves - Slightly inactive. I'm hoping they'll start to get more involved this Turn. I don't really have an opinion on them, though again, I feel like a Sja-Anat!Shqueeves would have been a little more active.
10. Lopen - Still village
11. Dr Dapper - Another potential Sja-Anat. Hasn't done a whole lot. Posts fairly frequently, but they're usually very short posts with not much in them. I didn't feel like Sja-Anat would be as casual in their posting as Dapper has been, but I could be wrong. At this point, the search is narrowing down enough that I think I should include them in the list of potential Sja-Anat's.
12. Sart - Inkspren, basically confirmed. Like I've mentioned before, a prime suspect for conversion. It wouldn't surprise me if he was just converted, but I don't think he was converted before that. I was feeling a village vibe from him at least. 

Fura, I'm not sure I see what information could be gained about the elims by a lynch on a village Lum. Most of the info we would get looks like it's mostly about whether Rath is an elim or not, and we've already established he was not evil last Cycle, so him and Lum aren't connected at all.

10 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

xD

 

I'll go with Lumgol. He was the other suspect last turn, and I think he's been a secondary suspect too often.

Let's just try and eliminate him.

Also,  Ark confirmed eliminator.

Jokes aside, I think i would be comfortable lynching any of Fura, Sart, Devotary, or Levitaph(probably my top suspect for Sja-Anat at the moment, mostly just because no one else really makes sense to me). Not sure who I'd most prefer to lynch though. I need to do some more analyzing and info digging.

5 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

Very... rant-y.

And crazy.

Haha, harsh, but probably fair. I have a habit of coming up with these sorts of theories. Your reaction, and the fact that these types of theories aren't ever right, make me inclined to go back to my original thought that your reveal means you're more likely village.

To be clear though, I'm still wary of Fura.

Well darn. I guess that explains why Rath didn't want to roleswap with Fifth.  Sorry about that Rath. What makes me really uncomfortable about that lynch is that basically all of the high profile players voted as a group, as me, Fifth, Devotary, and Sart are decent conversion targets in my opinion. I point this out because I feel like there has to be a convert in there somewhere. As I'm actually still reading Sart as village, I'm looking at Devotary and Fifth right now. This may sound a little conspiracy theory-ish, but my current thought is that Fura is the convert and that Ark is also an elim. I was looking back at the past Day, and Fura and Ark rarely seem to have any sort of back and forth. For one, Fura never says anything about Ark's reveal that he burned Snipexe even though earlier he'd mentioned he was suspicious of whoever had burned Snip. Then, Ark votes on me following Sart's vote, and Fura heavily defends me. Ark never really responds to either my posts or Fura's, seemingly content to just sit on his vote of me, with no further response. Fura only mentions that at least Ark's vote on me had some reasoning behind it rather than Sart's, which is a defense of Ark in a way(if I was lynched, I think Sart would have taken the larger portion of blame for it, and this defense might help Ark's case a bit). Now, Ark is suggesting going after Lumgol instead of me, his previous target, with no explanation. I believe this may be because Fura started casting suspicion on Lumgol at the end of last Turn, and Ark is sort of following Fura's lead. Oh right, which brings me back to Ark's reveal that he Burned Snip. I've been thinking about that and have a nagging feeling it was planned to draw attention away from Ark. I think that the elims may have felt Ark had too much pressure on him, and suggested he reveal he'd Burned Snip as a solution. If so, it worked, as both me and Devotary both stated we felt it was a village move. I think the reason Fura didn't mention it was because he wanted to see the village's reaction to the reveal first so he could decide whether to go after Ark for that or not. Another reason I'm wary of Fura is for his strong defense of me. While I appreciate it, I can't help but feel like he's trying to get on my good side. I don't think his opinion is really feigned, as my current theory is that he was converted, so I think he did read my first post as strongly village when he was village, but I think he's playing that read up to gain my trust.

Anyways, I know that's kind of a lot and not very well put together, but it's very late and I think it gets my point across good enough.  With that, I'm off for the night.

3 hours ago, Lumgol said:

So there's 3 ways that I see the lynch going: Lopen, Rath, and Sart.
(Ninja'd by Rath voting on me. Now Sart doesn't have any votes, so he's out.)

All I've gotten from Rath lately are village reads. I see no problem with his day-by-day analysis - people have pointed out that there's little actual analysis at the end, but most of Rath's thoughts are commentary on the posts themselves. Furthermore, Rath has provided a different style of analysis after people expressed their dissatisfaction with it. Rath's vote on me does seem to be based largely on the fact that I've been driving conversation, which I don't like, but I'd say the reasoning there is not wrong.

As much as I dislike rapidly changing opinions and going back on what I've said before, upon thinking, Lopen seems like a good candidate for a convert and the only person whose behavior at this point would warrant a lynch. It would make sense for an early convert to go from strong, detailed analysis and all-around village reads D1 to quietly hiding out and posting vague reads afterward. Players with village reads at the beginning are good candidates for conversion in general, too.

I haven't been hiding out!? What are you talking about? Vague reads are all anyone has, and I feel like I've laid out my thoughts as clear as I can and as often as I can.

Anyways, I'm at work, still sick, so I'm not gonna be posting any long posts for the rest of the Day. 

3 hours ago, Lumgol said:

I believe there's only 4 votes so far.

Lopen (2) - Ark, Sart

Sart (1) - Rath

Rath (1) - Fura

Thanks for the vote tally(you forgot my vote though!), but don't forget to add your vote somewhere!  There's probably been a conversion or 2 so far, so this is the best time for us to try and draw out the elims by putting pressure on them with the lynch. Updated vote tally, and keep in mind that Sart has vote manipulation:

Lopen (2 or 3) - Ark, Sart
Sart (1) - Rath
Rath (2) - Fura, Lopen
No vote (9) - Lumgol, Xino, Snipexe, Devotary, Levitaph, Shqueeves, Cadcom, Dr Dapper

I bolded Xino and Shqueeves because they haven't posted yet, but everyone else, please vote!

Personally, my guesses for conversions would be Sart and/or Fura, with Devotary as another option(if I'm remembering correctly, he pretty much always gets converted in conversion games ). Sart for his role and Fura for his influence in the thread and general trustedness. What's worrisome about Sart to me is that he's gone after very active villagers the past 2 lynches. First was Fifth, who was imo acting as a sort of village leader, and now he's going after me. That's not to mention that the elims just killed Rand, another very active villager. If we only have half of the players participating in the voting, the elims could very easily control the lynches with Sart's vote manipulation.

Ninja'd by Devotary...I mostly agree with the order of suspicion, although I think I'd switch Levitaph and Xino, simply because Xino really hasn't been around much, and I'd expect the main eliminator to at least have a semblance of activity. Anyways, with all of this in mind, I think I will remove my vote from Ark, and I'll move over to Rath. I was considering moving to Sart, for the reasons I mentioned up above, but similarly to Fura, Sart just feels too obvious to actually be an eliminator. Also, I'd have to vote alongside Rath who I'm obviously not very trusting of. I thought it was good of Rath that he was posting a bunch of analysis, but I could see it being a sort of front. Like, he wants to post to seem helpful, so he decides to just go post by post as a sort of "safe" option(rather than having to post a village/elim reads list for example). I know that I sometimes have trouble finding things to post about as an elim, so having something to fall back on(such as a post-by-post analysis) could be useful to make me seem more active than I actually am. I'm not sure how much I'd hold it against him that he didn't role swap, because role swapping in a conversion game is extra dangerous, but it doesn't help his case any.

3 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

Cause those were what I had, fire and oil.

And I knew for sure they would do that, as it was in the rules as an example.

Also, I was pretty tired and didn't know what else to do.

Ok thanks, I was just curious.

2 hours ago, Lumgol said:

Although I see the reasoning against Lopen, for now, I still think he's village. And I disagree with the statement that he's been staying "under the radar", since several people have analyzed his posts and paid attention to them. Being consistently read as village in people's analysis is quite different from not being analyzed in the first place. 

@TheMightyLopen, I think that it would greatly help if you shared some more reasoning for your trusts and suspicions, just focus in on some more specific people instead of generally listing everyone and saying that you think they're village/elim. A lot of why I trust you comes from your detailed analysis D1 and although I've seen a lot of activity from you after that, it seems to mostly skim through your reads rather than really explaining them, and that can read as elim, since elims can't genuinely suspect people. Your tone, to me, reads very village, but the change in your style from detailed analysis to listing a few gut reads does follow the same pattern as what would be expected from a convert.

I'm not sure who to vote for at this point, but, let's not lynch an active player who has, in fact, been contributing. I'd definitely like to hear more about your reads. When you say "village read" or "elim read", what led you to come to that conclusion? 

My previous list wasn't a traditional village/elim list though. It was a "potential Sja-Anat/not Sja-Anat" list. Any of the players on the "not Sja-Anat" side could be elims at this point, I was just saying I didn't think they were Sja-Anat for the various reasons I posted. I guess I could try to post a village/elim read list, but I won't have time until late tonight(like, 10 hours from now or something) because I'm going to work right now. In the mean time, I'm hoping some other people will actually vote! And not on me...

2 hours ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:
Ark (1): Lopen

Oh come on! We have more information now than ever, but only one person has voted.

Now then. Regarding Cadmium Compounder, and my revealing his role. I regret doing that. I got too amped up about lynching Fifth, on whom I believed I had a rock solid case. My main evidence was that he lied about his role. While he did lie, he was still a Villager, so revealing Cadmium's role was unnecessary. To clarify my position on role reveals, I like revealing them when they enhance the lynch. In my case, i revealed to prevent a mislynch, and in Cadmium's case, I did it to hopefully lynch a bad guy. What I don't like is people revealing their role for no reason, like in a role swap. That's dangerous, especially with conversion.

Now then, since I have time to post, I'm going to place a vote. Lopen I'm suspicious of you. A similar lack of voting happened in my Mid-Range game on Day 3. Guess what happened? The only two people to vote were two bad guys. They weren't afraid to vote, because they knew there wasn't any danger of lynching a teammate. I suspect the same thing has happened this game. In addition, you're a fairly active player who has managed to stay under the radar. That might not mean anything, but it could have made you a better target for a conversion. For these reasons, I'm voting on you.

I'm not sure how to respond to this, since it doesn't really have much to do with what I've said or done over the course of the game. I can't control what anyone else does or has done in the past, and as for whether I've stayed under the radar or not is up to how much attention everyone has paid to my posts. I certainly wasn't a large factor in D2, but I feel I've contributed a good amount so far, so there is content to look at if anyone wants to try and get a better read on me.

1 hour ago, Ark1002 said:

I am going to place my vote on Lopen.

While I'm probably biased, as he is currently trying to lynch me, I have reasoning for such.

First: While he did accuse me of this, I also accuse him of withholding strong opinions, trying to remain inconspicuous. To me, this seems like he might be trying to kill a villager without notice of himself.

Second: His post during night two was long, but didn't actually say much. His people he cleared in his suspicions were a lot of "gut feelings" and "general villager reads". A few made sense, but those were the ones anyone could see. The people he was suspicious of (besides me) was "unreadable people". But again, very little reasoning.

Third: In day 2, he said outright that his vote would end up probably being a bandwagon, or a vote for the bond. While he failed to actually place the vote, it seemed fairly unhelpful, as it would have been doing nothing to the game. This shows bandwagoning and going just for bonds, which is something he accused me of.

Basically all his posts have seemed substansial but actually been useless.

Like Sart said he was fairly active, but stays under the radar.

1. I feel like I've posted as much player analysis/opinions as anyone else has so far...

2. The other players besides you i had in my suspicion pool were simply there because I don't have any reason not to put them there. I'm not gonna do a huge post with long paragraphs for each player. I simply don't have that much time/energy to devote to that.

3. D2 I was basically useless, but in my defense I admitted that already.

Seems harsh to say all my posts have been useless...

I don't know what to feel about these votes on me. I was surprised that Ark admitted to Burning Snip, and it actually kind of feels village-y that he admitted it, but I'm unsure. Sart feels different from normal, but it's been a while since I've played and I can't say I've really been able to read him that well in the past. Ark, why did you decide to create Large Fire?

I'm glad that we got an extension, so we can hopefully get some more discussion going. That's all I've got for now. I think I'm getting some kind of cold/flu, so that might affect my activity levels. I kind of want to back off of Ark and look at some other players, but I just don't have the energy right now for that, so my vote stays until I can look things over again.

At the moment, I would like to hear more from Ark, Shqueeves, and Xino. I feel like these 3 players haven't really shared their opinions on things very much. I believe Shqueeves has explained himself to some degree, but I'd really like to get this Day going a lot faster than the last one, so we have more time to get everyone involved in a serious lynch.

Ark, as I stated during the Night, you are my top suspect. I'm not convinced you're evil, and I'm hesitant to lynch you because I'm not familiar with you so it could just be a clash of playstyles to some extent, but you're my best guess right now. I think something that would help would be a deeper analysis of other players. Even if you just quote one of Fura's or Devotary's or whoevers longer posts and post your feelings about their reads on players or their ideas about what's going on, I think it would go a long way for us to get a better idea of your thought processes and point of view. So far, to me, it feels like you're holding back on taking any strong stances on anything.

Well I was able to do a bit of review. Here are my current feelings, with as much explanation as I can give:

Players I think are not Sja-Anat:

1. Fura - Gut feeling, and also Fifth suggested we trust him for now.
2. Lumgol - Village read. Seems too proactive to be Sja-Anat.
3. Snipexe - His openness about his actions make me lean village, because I feel Sja-Anat would most likely want to keep her actions as under the radar as possible.
4. Cadcom - Role was revealed.
5. Dr Dapper - Seems too carefree. I'm not familiar with them though, so that could be a front.
6. Sart - Role was basically proven.
7. Lopen - Village all the way!

Players I think could be Sja-Anat(not in any particular order):

1. Xino - Lack of posting means I've got no idea. From their few posts though, they aren't high on my suspicion list.
2. Rath - Still feel wary from D1, and haven't seen anything to really make me think otherwise.
3. Ark - My highest suspicion at the moment I think. Short posts, and bandwagon votes. Kind of feels to me like an eliminator who wants to post and vote, but doesn't want to draw attention to themselves or slip up by posting a lot(in terms of content or number of posts). Sort of a "do the bare minimum amount of posting/voting so I don't get called out for being quiet" strategy.
4. Devotary - Basically unreadable.  Fifth did suggest trusting him for now though, which is something I suppose.
5. Levitaph - I'm reading them as village actually, but as they're new to me(and I think to SE?), I don't think I should trust my initial read too far, because they seem like they have a good idea of how to play.
6. Shqueeves - Didn't vote last Day Turn, but I think that was more due to not being around rather than a lack of interest in getting Bonded. I will say that his rng vote on D1 does make me lean slightly away from him being Sja-Anat, as it was pretty early in the Day, so I'm not sure Sja-Anat would have thought about the fact that they could be found out by lack of interest in getting Bonded(although to counter that Lumgol did post that idea very early in the Day as well, so maybe that's not a good reason to trust him). Anyways, I don't have much of a read on Shqueeves.
7. Randuir - Also difficult to read. Nothing has jumped out to me from Rand so far, and I think he's a pretty good player, so I'm going to be wary until I can get more solid information on him.

So that's my view right now. Sorry about not helping out much during the Day. It was a busy few days for me, so I really didn't have the time I needed to form any suspicions/trusts by looking back over things. Hopefully now that I've reviewed, I can keep my participation a lot more consistent.

(color)Leviwtaph(color=red/)

Edit: sorry I thought I could type fast enough lol!

I never got the chance to review, so I don't have any new suspicions or anything, and I'll be at work the rest of the Day Turn, so don't expect much from me for a bit. I will try to vote, but it'll either be me bandwagoning with someone I agree with or placing a vote just for the bond.

7 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Happy Easter to you as well, Sart.  That’s fair enough, though I’d appreciate more justification later, if possible. My last post was wishy-washy, but so are my feelings on Lumgol.  

Looking back over Elandera’s posts, we see a moderate amount of suspicion for Sart, a defence of Lumgol, and a declaration of lowered activity. Depending on the type of Elim we have, she could have been killed for any of the three, but I doubt Sart is the type of Eliminator to kill those suspecting him just because of that. That doesn’t disclude him from being evil, obviously, but I think a more likely reason for the Elandera kill is simply removing a lower-active player (even though Elan is typically more active than the normal “active” player when she’s lower-activity, but I digress ). Such a move would probably be performed by a team which had at least one veteran player on it, which includes...quite a few people, unfortunately for the purposes of narrowing our list down. Still, it’s worth noting. 

The final possibility is that the Elims intend to mislynch Lumgol, and want to remove one of her defenders. I find this as implausible as the Sart case. 

What's your logic behind the elim team deciding to kill Elandera because of her lower-activity? 

9 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

Here’s a fun essence result:

metal+flesh=small stiff homunculus with no apparent purpose.

my current goal is to give it a soul, if anyone’s willing to work with me.

I wonder if adding Wind(breathing) and Water(blood) to that would give it life? Or maybe just one of those?

I combined Fire/Oil/Metal to create Liquid Metal, which apparently doesn't do anything either. I don't really see any obvious additions to help make it useful either, so any suggestions are welcome.

I'm gonna try to look over everyone's posts and place a vote later tonight, so that's all from me for now.

Darn, I missed PM time. If anyone wants to roleclaim swap before the end of the Night, I'm down for it.

As far as the lynch goes, I don't really have anything much to say. I don't particularly like the lynch on Coop, but I do understand the reasoning behind it. Seems like a pretty typical D1 lynch. I'm actually more curious about those who didn't vote. We got 14 votes out of 17, which is excellent for D1. Still, I'd like to hear from @xinoehp512, @Snipexe, and @Ark1002(looks like mentions are glitching out) about why they didn't vote. There was plenty of discussion and targets for a D1, so what held you all back?

I don't have much time right now, so I'll keep it short. I do feel less suspicious of Rath after his reply and others input, but since he's not in danger of being lynched and I want to vote somewhere but don't have time to make an informed vote, I'll keep my vote where it is. 

This will likely be my last post of the Day, unless someone needs to ask me something I can answer in like 2 minutes.

59 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

 

Villagers are defensive, but Eliminators prioritise survival over all else. I guess this feels like I’m also splitting hairs, but Eliminators (to me at least) will typically not only fear the lynch, but also won’t take significant risks, whether with actions or words, unless forced. As such, remaining within “safe” statements is generally good for them. I don’t know exactly where I was going with this, to be honest, but that was my thought process when I made that vote.  

Again, I dislike the RNG-vote as it’s a good way to neatly avoid having to justify a vote, or put significant thought behind it; while it may be less harmful D1, it’s still not helping the village with analysis or with the lynch itself. 

In regards to your later points on Rath, I tend to think that every game about him, and I’m always wrong.  I think I’ve gotten him lynched or have killed him several times in suspicion for exactly that. While I’d hate to ruin a good tradition, that’s probably just an ellipses-heavy writing style, which makes the tone (at least to me) sound more hesitant. While I don’t necessarily fully agree with his vote, I did almost the same thing, so I’m not really judging him. Coop’s vote, however, is more suspicious, and I’ll likely vote on either him or return my vote to Lum by the end of the cycle. 

That's fair. It's sometimes hard for villagers to take a proactive playstyle though, since you really have no idea what's going on to begin the game. I do think it's important to try and be aggressive as a villager so that you don't let the eliminators just slip their way through the game by playing passively.

I wouldn't be a fan of an RNG-vote if Shqueeves had the time to look for suspicions, but as he posted saying he was busy, I thought it was a valid time to use that method if he wanted to try and get Bonded.

I was kinda wondering if it was just the ellipses that was making me feel uneasy, haha. I'd still like to hear more from him though. I'm also hoping that those who haven't really gotten involved in the lynch discussion so far can show up before the end of the Day, because I could definitely see Sja-Anat just sitting back and letting us create a web of mistrust that she's left out of because of her lack of participation.

While I did say I felt Coop's post was village-y, it was a short post and a bandwagon vote, so it would be good to hear more from him I think.

5 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m thinking we should focus on you, Lumgol. Irrespective of your jumping on a literally random vote against me, this post sets my alarm bells ringing. First, there’s no distinction between Sja’anat and a convert until we lynch them; before then, they’re both just Elims and are equally necessary to remove. So why bring this up at all? It’s splitting hairs, and drives discussion in a meaningless direction, and away from focus on players, which is the discussion that will ultimately lead to us finding Eliminators. If/when we do find them, it won’t matter whether they’re a convert or Sja’anat herself—it’ll be equally bad for the Eliminator team. 

I’m not really on board with Sart’s logic on your first post, but I do take issue that you’re focusing heavily on mechanics (again) and not players. This gives you a post, with the semblance of activity and analysis, which is convenient for a Sja’anat!Lumgol after your own insinuations that inactives were more likely to be evil, and also conveniently prevents you from having to give opinions on other players until later. Even your current vote dodges this necessity, as you can claim self-preservation rather than genuine suspicion once I flip village. 

@Shqueeves, if I wasn’t voting for Lumgol, I’d be voting on you. What good does your random vote do? I’ve already responded to the thread, and clearly am not inactive. As with Lumgol, your post conveniently allows you to not have to justify your vote. 

Meditation (Yes, this is what spellcheck corrected “edit” to): Steel’s PAFO is probably a yes, which is unfortunate. If it was explicitly against the rules, I don’t see a reason for him not to clarify. Assuming this is the case, however, I doubt Sja’anat has more than three *extra* lives—this would grant a maximum of four Eliminators at a single time, which seems most reasonable. 

I feel like this is a little over the top. Lumgol just seems like they want to survive, and their posts so far read to me like a player trying to get the discussion started, rather than trying to control what's being said. This has already been said, but I'd like to reiterate that at the time of this post, there really hadn't been many "posts" so accusing Lumgol of not discussing players over mechanics feels unnecessarily aggressive. I understand the thought of "elims hide behind posts that appear substantial but don't actually have much useful information" to catch out elims, but it's so early in the game that that isn't really applicable yet.

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

-other stuff was here-

3) I appreciate that you’re trying to save your life, but obviously can’t clear you for it, as an Eliminator would try the exact same thing (in fact, an Eliminator would have greater incentive to preserve themselves than a villager). Further, if you truly want to protect yourself from the lynch, I suggest proposing a candidate who wasn’t chosen by RNG. The lynch swings dramatically throughout the cycle, and a quick self-preservation vote on me is indicative of a mindset concerned with instant survival, again a higher priority of Eliminators than villagers. 

I will admit that you bring up good points in your posts, but I don’t have enough to justify the removal of my vote quite yet, as you’re still my clear highest suspect. If a better candidate is offered with more compelling reasoning, I’d be fine switching. I’d also back a Shqueeves lynch if more people are comfortable with him as a candidate than Lumgol. 

Sounds fair enough.  

Firstly, I just want to question why does an eliminator have more incentive to preserve themselves than a villager? I don't really understand that. As a villager, any other player besides yourself is a better lynch, wouldn't you say? You can only trust yourself, so everyone else has a chance of being evil.

I also disagree with a Shqueeves lynch. His vote looks to me like a standard rng vote so he can try to be bonded. If I don't find a good target before the end of the cycle, I'll likely use rng to vote as well.

3 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Infighting like this is rarely productive my nephews and nieces.

---

So I always find it interesting when D1 turns into a two-person race this early.  First, current vote count.

Lumgol (3) - Sart, Levitaph, Fifth
Fifth (2) - Shqueeves, Lumgol

OK, so the votes on Fifth so far don't have much in the way of justification, so I don't think there's much point in analyzing them at this point, especially Lum's vote.

The votes on Lum definitely have some justification and to some degree I see what everyone is seeing in Lum's posts...  So, let's take a look at those posts.

• Lum post #1 - First overall post of game - "Bonding could definitely affect activity" - this one seems fairly NAI on its own.  Personally, I don't think I've yet seen a game mechanic that truly affected thread activity.  People are active or they aren't...and sometimes they'll attempt to hide behind inactivity if they are trying to hide something, but I don't think anything in this game's mechanics are really going to affect that.
• Lum post #2 - several posts between these posts, mostly check ins and a couple posts discounting Lum post #1 - "Should we get Sja-Anat or the other elims?" - this one seems a bit more suspicious...  It's trying to generate conversation on the game...but I, personally, don't think it would end up being overly productive conversation, as a couple other people have implied as well.  An elim is an elim and we really aren't going to be able to determine one way or the other whether or not a specific elim is Sja-Anat or just a normal elim unless we run into extra lives.  A better question, which Sart brought up and I don't think anyone has answered, is whether we should hammer down anyone who pops up with extra lives.  I'm still unsure on my feelings here...either we remove the most powerful elim or the most powerful village if we run into this...  Having the Stormfather claim at this point could help...so I'm thinking I'll lean toward 'kill them all' if we find someone with extra lives, but I'll have to reread the rules to make sure there isn't anything else that could mimic this.  Anyway, back to the topic of this post...this post by Lum I definitely find a bit suspicious.
• Lum post #3 - a few posts between...Elandera and I dispute the idea of "focusing" on finding a specific elim, Devotary mentions that Sja-Anat could be easier to find with the extra lives (although we'd still have to find Sja first...) and Shqueeves puts down the random vote on Fifth - "self-preservation vote on Fifth" - Although I think it's still a bit early in the cycle to really be worried about a self preservation vote, I don't see this as anything other than NAI.
• Lum post #4 - Main post between these is Fifth's vote and analysis on Lum - "Defense" - Mostly NAI, but "...there isn't much to analyze as it is D1..." is a bit off.  Yes, there hadn't been a ton of activity for your posts, and I agree that Fifth calling you out on not performing player analysis seems a bit off itself...but don't discount the ability of people to get a decent amount of analysis in once people do start talking about the game and not just RPing and poke voting (which has been surprisingly low so far)

In summary... I'm not opposed to a Lum lynch, but I'm obviously not 100% convinced.  (OK, I should probably just delete that last sentence since I realize how dumb it sounds to say I'm not 100% convinced on someone being an elim based on D1 conversation...but I'm going to leave it in there since I think it serves as a good reminder that sometimes voting for someone D1 can be good even if you aren't 100% sure...)

OK, I'll join for now.  Lumgol

Currently this is mostly based on post #2 and parts of post #4...so Lum, if you can provide satisfactory defense on those (or if I find someone better to vote on) I'll pull my vote off.

This post feels off to me. Seems non-committal. I get that it's D1, but I feel like Rath is really hedging here with phrases like "definitely have some justification and to some degree I see what people are saying" it feels to me like he wants to vote, but he doesn't want to just bandwagon, so he's putting as much reasoning behind his vote as he can without really committing to the idea that he feels Lumgol is evil. Rathmaskal

2 hours ago, Coop772 said:

I will (somewhat regrettably) vote Lumgol. She is driving conversation, which is good, but her reasoning just isn't doing it for me compared to the counterpoints brought up by *several* other people. Sorry, and ik this is probably not the way you wanted this lg to go, but the village must survive

I obviously don't agree with this vote, but for some reason it feels village. Just seems too carefree for an eliminator. Like I mentioned with Rathmaskal, I feel an eliminator would try to justify their vote much more than this so that they aren't seen as simply bandwagoning.

At this point, here are my feeliings:

Lumgol - Seems village. I don't think an eliminator would have tried a self-preservation vote as early as her vote was, as typically elims try to not draw attention by being deciding votes. Much better to see how the Day goes and then once they're really in danger of being lynched, throw out the "since I'm being forced to vote in self-preservation, even if I lynch a villager it won't be suspicion as it's obviously self-preservation." Also, even though I don't think her posts about mechanics were super helpful, they don't feel like they had bad intentions behind them, IMO.

Fifth - I don't really like the reasoning behind the vote on Lumgol, but I think it's almost too aggressive play for an eliminator on D1. I get the feeling if Fifth was an eliminator, they would have tried to convince Lumgol to vote for someone else rather than attack them and pretty much force them to keep their vote where it is. As it is, a big conflict between Fifth and Lumgol could very well make other players have the idea of "if Lumgol is innocent then Fifth is evil" or vice versa. No elim wants to put themselves in a position like that on D1.

That's pretty much it from me.

Vote tally:

Lumgol(5): Sart, Levitaph, Fifth, Rath, Coop
Fifth(3): Shqueeves, Lumgol, Fura
Rath(1): Lopen

As Lymelis was making his way down to the docks to purchase the newest album his favorite spren band had released, a crowd of spren came rushing towards him. He stopped one of them to ask what was happening.

"Hey dude, what's with the running and screaming?" he asked.

"An Unmade was just spotted down at the docks! You should stay away from there!" the spren warned, and then quickly resumed his fleeing and screaming.

Great... Lymelis thought to himself. Of all the days for an Unmade to show up. So lame. But then he had a thought. If everyone's leaving, maybe he could actually get a signed copy this time! With that in mind, he made his way down to the docks with a smile on his face.

---

Heyo, I don't have anything to contribute yet, but I'm here! Still need to study the rules to figure out what's going on, and then I'll probably post again. Maybe... If I have the time. 

I'll sign up! I've always had a hard time coming up with a name for my character, so GM(s), if you could make one up for me, that'd be very cool.

I suppose I should vote Bard, as I do feel Cadcom is village. I haven't examined Bard's posts very closely, but from what I can recall I hadn't formed an opinion either way. Just seemed like pretty typical posts, with nothing to sway me towards him being village or elim.

Anyone have a vote count?

Edit: not 100% sure this is correct

Cadcom(4): Bard, MetaTerminal, Steel, Kidpen
Bard(3): Fifth, Cadcom, Lopen

@Devotary of Spontaneity, Cadcom did mention switching to Elandera before he posted, yes. Not sure how much time before though.

1 hour ago, I think I am here. said:

Hey Lopen!

(you know, there should be a symbol for a moderately happy statement because the exclaimation mark sounds like I’m shouting and the full stop sounds monotone.)

1. Full disclosure: I had no idea who Karata was. I knew it wasn’t me, and it certainly wasn’t Sart (cuz he ded).

The real POE was to check who was innocent. I knew I was, and I trusted Fifth. When I told him there was a traitor in our gang, he said he’d found Shqueeves suspicious. None of us knew who Karata actually was. But Fifth found Shqueeves fishy and I trusted his judgement.

So it really wasn’t as simple as Fifth said. There was a legitimate chance Shqueeves wouldn’t be the traitor. In that case, we’d move onto Elandera.

I didn’t really figure out much. We knew the traitor had to be either Elandera or Shqueeves, and Shqueeves was acting off.

2. So, at this point I started thinking about things a bit more. My instinct was to say Elandera was Karata (due to last point’s reasoning), but I figured it might also have been Fifth, and maybe he was being cautious and not telling me.

I knew Karata had to either be Fifth or Elandera. My only hint it was Elandera was the reasoning I’ve mentioned in the last post.

To put it simply, my only assurance Karata was Elandera was Fifth’s assurance he wasn’t Karata, so basically trust. I figured if he was Karata, I couldn’t trust him anyway! So I considered both options and posted both, though I said I was leaning Elandera because I still trusted Fifth and felt our reasoning was pretty sound.

But it seemed like Fifth was certain that Elandera was Karata. He even went so far as to tell Mailliw that. It just seems odd.

5 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Fifth, I'd like that reasoning if possible - I do find it a little frustrating when I have someone voting on me and I have nothing to respond to.

Lopen, Dashe scanned the Children, and found only one villain in that group. So, unless Dashe was also immediately converted in the first turn (which... would be fairly extraordinary if true), Dashe lied about the number of converts in the group, and then Fifth bussed Shqueeves, which seems to unlikely to be true. As such, I'm going to go with CadCom - I see your point, but I don't see any better candidates currently. If I were after an Independent specifically, I might go for @Droughtbringer, as someone who's neutral, but otherwise, I don't see it. (I trust both Devotary and Fifth at this stage, and MetaTerminal just seems like a new player to me.

Actually - Coop got referred to as an Independent/Baron "ambassador". @Fifth Scholar - are you referred to as an "Ambassador" in your GM PM? And if there's an Ambassador for the Children, and an Ambassador for the Baron's, I'd be surprised if there wasn't an Ambassador for the Wildmen. Has anyone claimed as much in the Wildmen Doc? If so, (particularly if they haven't claimed as much to anybody), then they become a lot more suspicious to me.

Hm. I had somehow forgotten about the scan "clearing" Fifth. Kinda makes me want to lynch Itiah to check since if Fifth is evil Itiah would have to be as well, but idk. Itiah didn't scan on C1, so he could have been converted C1 or C2. I'm leaning towards them both being villagers at this point though I think, mostly because Itiah's above post feels genuine, rather than carefully worded to avoid potential trip-ups.

Aaand now Fifth has posted. Yeah, I was thinking it wasn't too likely, but thought I'd put it out there since it was on my mind. At least now I can look elsewhere. Tomorrow though.

Okay, well, I've been looking over posts and trying to find someone to be suspicious of. I've been suspicious of Cadcom for most of the game, but going over his posts, I'm getting the feeling that he's actually village. Probably should elaborate on that, but it's hard to explain. Idk, he just seems genuine in his insistence that he's not evil, and his somewhat fatalistic view lately seems village to me. Like he's frustrated he can't convince everyone he's not evil and doesn't know what else to do.

Now comes the tinfoil. I've been going over Fifth's and Itiah's posts lately and am starting to think that Fifth, and possibly Itiah as well, are Spirits. I think it would be interesting if Joe had both starting Spirits in the smallest faction, but also gave one of them PM's to help with info gathering, and I just feel off about Fifth's posts(nothing specific, although asking for an Independent Wildman to contact you when the Spirits are looking to narrow who Shaor could be is suspicious I think). There are a couple things I'd like to know before I go any further with this though.

1. Itiah, how did you know Elandera was Karata? Fifth stated that you knew Shqueeves was evil by process of elimination because you knew who Karata was.
2. Itiah, once Karata was converted, you said you thought Elandera was Karata but that Fifth could possibly be Karata? It seems inconsistent with what you told Fifth.

Anyways, current tinfoil is that Fifth is Galladon, they(Fifth and Shqueeves and whoever might have been converted C1) converted Itiah on C2, then came up with a plan to get Karata and get both Itiah and Fifth fairly trusted by "catching" Shqueeves, therefore giving a clear link as to how Karata was converted so early. It might be a bit of a reach, but I don't have anything better. None of the known Wildmen jump out at me as being suspicious and narrowing the field for who Shaor could be shouldn't be done unless there's very good reason I think. I don't think Itiah is absolutely evil if Fifth is, I just think there's a connection there that's a little strange. Fifth.