TheMightyLopen

Cycle is now closed. The new Turn should go up in 3 hours.

Ah, okay. That's understandable then. I kind of thought it was odd. Hm, I'm not sure, but I'm actually leaning slightly village for Flash right now. It's nothing more than a gut/tone read, but it's how I feel right now. Honestly though, I'd say go ahead and vote on whoever seems the most likely to be an eliminator to you. I don't know if you're village, but if you are, we need all the villagers voting that we can get, since the villagers are the ones who'll actually lynch eliminators. >> One thing I wanted to mention about that edited post, I don't think he actually changed the content at all? Just the wording. He said he was suspicious of Orlok(FOS means "finger of suspicion" which is just a term to say you're suspicious of someone without voting on them) in both posts, he just removed the vote from Orlok in the edit. Sorry. Well, not for the scary part. That's good! Anyways! I just went through the Day 1 thread keeping in mind that PK was village(and Orlok likely village as well, though I'm not certain of that), and here's some of my thoughts on the Day 1 lynch. First thing I noticed, which is one of the things I thought was suspicious about Brightness, is that she posts right after the thread goes up, but seemed to ignore the fact that there was no elim kill. It's possible she was expecting that, if she's a Venture Agent. Next thing is Stick throwing suspicion on Flash for saying he'd forgotten when rollover was, because she said that might have been the reason for the no kill. I thought it was a bit far fetched to say he's suspicious for a no kill, when the other elims could have sent it in if he wasn't around, and I doubt he'd have admitted to forgetting about rollover if he really was supposed to send in the kill. The one thing I think is suspicious that Flash did was his voting on PK after Orlok was somewhat accusing him of defending PK. I've seen it before, where a villager will accuse another villager and an elim together, and the elim will vote on the villager they're accused with to show the other villager they're wrong about them being teammates. I feel like Flash was more just going along with the vote on PK because he didn't have a better suspicion though, and it's understandable, since there was no elim kill and PK was the only player unable to send in an Action. I don't really have an opinion on cloudjumper's vote on PK. It was basically a bandwagon, which I suppose makes me lean slightly village, since it was Day 1, and players have been lynched for bandwagoning on Day 1 multiple times before, so it would have been a risky move(not sure if he'd have known that at the time though). One thing I thought was in the Flash's favor was his strong attack on PK at one point. Elims tend to be more cautious when lynching villagers, rather than stating "I'm really sure you're evil" they'll usually say something like "I think you're evil, but I'm not completely sure." At least, inexperienced eliminators tend to do that. Brightness mentions that she read the writeup really late at night, so she didn't notice the no kill. Still, I think she'd be more likely to have noticed it if she was a villager. Another thing I thought pointed to Flash being village was his suggestion that they all had spikes. It didn't seem like he'd have come up with that idea if he was an elim. Other people voted on PK(meta, Brightness, HH, Elenion, maybe more). I don't have strong opinions on those votes really. I'm slightly suspicious of Elenion, but that's nothing new for me. I think I start out suspicious of Len. Of those 4 voters I mentioned, I think in terms of most suspicious to least, I'd say Brightness, Elenion, Meta, then HH. But eh.

Honestly, we tend to lynch villagers the first couple Cycles anyways, so it's not like your reads are any less accurate than most. I know I've lynched a ton of villagers in the early rounds. But we still need to have lynches to get better reads, which means more voters now will give us more information later, even if we do lynch villagers. At least that's the idea. >> In her post, she mentions being wary of the Flash, and she did a bit of research already, considering she put up the voters before Orloks reveal and the voters after, which means she glanced at the posts at the very least, but she didn't vote, so I thought I'd prod her to make her put down a vote, as votes mean a lot more than "I think this is person is slightly suspicious" or "we should look for elims in this group." I also don't see her mention the fact that she's going to do more research? As far as the other players who've posted so far, you and Dalinar mentioned some real life stuff, and in your case, you're new I believe, so I'm not gonna be as quick to call you out for not voting early, since even the more experienced players aren't even voting early very much... Brightness, I am actually a little suspicious of as well. The Flash voted on Cluny. Manukos seems to have claimed Hazekiller, which gave me a slight village lean on him(elims don't tend to do public claims like that). And Yitzi posted about 30 seconds before me. I'll admit it's not the best reasoning, but I wanted to try and get some voting going and I didn't have the time to do analysis of Day 1, so it was the best vote I could do in the limited time I had. I'm still aiming to look over Day 1 tonight though. Who do you think we should lynch(besides me )?

We need more votes people! I'm still working on getting some analysis done of the Day 1 voters, but I'll stick a vote on Stick for now. She did some analysis about Day 1, and which group she thought was more suspicious, but then she didn't put a vote on anyone. Kind of feels like she doesn't want put her neck on the line by voting first. Obviously, there's a lot of targets in the group you mentioned Stick, but you could have picked whoever you were most suspicious out of that group.

Well that's sad for Ornstein. :/ And for us, since we need a Metallurgist to get metals for our Allomancers. I'm hopeful that there's another one out there though. Seonid, am I right in assuming that was the eliminator kill at least? Like, will you differentiate between the Venture kill, Coinshot/Mistborn kill? It appears to have been the Venture kill(multiple killers), so I'll assume that it is unless Seonid says otherwise. It's kind of an odd kill, and I feel like they probably wouldn't knowingly kill a Metallurgist already. It's possible I suppose, but kind of ruthless, considering that the Metallurgist only needs to survive to win, and if they knew he was a Metallurgist, it seems like they'd try to work with him to poison a villagers vial. It seems more like a "let's kill a semi-active/inactive to not give the village any information" kill to me. Anyways, I will do my absolute best to look over Day 1 and it's posts tomorrow, and hopefully find something useful from PK's lynch(considering the amount of votes piled on him, we definitely had some eliminator voting, though the circumstances might make it extra difficult to tell them apart from the village voters).

Okay, only about 15 minutes left, but I wanted to say, if you don't have anything to do, you could at least order one of the 2 metals available to give to a player with that ability later(specifically, getting a lot of pewter vials for Thugs would really help us up our chances of them blocking an elim attack on themselves). I don't have much to say about the PK lynch, because I haven't really had the time to go over things. I don't have many suspicions or trusts yet either. I'll try and get more involved next Cycle, if I'm still alive.

All PM's have been sent. Don't forget your Lodging orders! Steph's alignment was not supposed to be shown. She was sabotaged and is now insane.

Really sorry everyone! I just totally blanked that we'd changed rollover. I'm busy at the moment, but I will do PM's as soon as I'm able(an hour or 2 I imagine). Again, sorry for the delay.

She's reading Stormlight first, since it's the best.

I don't think anyone views defending yourself as suspicious? At least they shouldn't. I thought you'd get some suspicion from all of this, but I don't personally think it's suspicious enough to lynch you over. That's not to say I think you're village, because I haven't seen anything to make me think that, but I'm not going to vote on you for this Detainment. I think there is a chance that you were the Venture Agent sending in the kill, but like you said, you had drawn a fair amount of attention to yourself during the Night, and elims tend to have unnoticed players send in the kill if they're available. So I'm leaning towards the elims not having sent in a kill at all, either out of kindness or because they wanted to mess with us...or something else. As far as me "looking at the thread quickly" I posted almost 2 and a half hours after the thread was put up, so I'm not sure what you mean. I understand your point about not voting on you looking suspicious though. I purposefully did not state my opinion when I posted, instead just listing the scenarios I could think of to try and get others' opinions. I did mention this in my first post, but now that Orlok has claimed to be the Captain, I'm not sure it seems like a very likely option. So you think that Orlok and PK are innocent? Thoughts are above and below. Flash, I kind of doubt the Venture Agents would all start with Spikes. It seems to me that Spikes would be somewhat rare, maybe only 3 or 4 altogether? Players already start with roles after all. And if I'm right, or even close to being right,, then the elims would have to have all or most of the Spikes(I'm guessing there's 4 elims, but I suppose it's possible there's 5?), which would be a strange way to balance the game. Although pretty interesting now that I think about it.

So, Booken was detained, and no one was killed off by those rotten Venture spies. Coincidence? Or did one of you Captains get lucky and nab the killer before he had a chance to do his dirty work? Of course, there's also the option that the Captain is one of the Venture agents, and they're trying to frame Booken. Or maybe Booken was the Venture agents target, and the Captain saved his life, eh? Or the Venture agents didn't attack anyone to confuse us!?! Hmmm. Personally, I'm not sure which of those scenario's this was. That's assuming I'm not missing any options... @Seonid, does Detainment protect a player from attacks? Sorren, do you have any opinion on what might have happened to the Venture kill? @Dalinar Kholin

As Valbar settled back in his post after stating his suggestions, he noticed Mehir looking at him, which was quite strange, since most people seemed to pass over him even if he was the only person in the room. Maybe he wasn't actually looking at me, he thought. He glanced back at Mehir and was doubly surprised to not only see him still staring at him, but now with a questioning look. He waddled over to Mehir to see if he couldn't clear up whatever it was he was thinking, since it was no doubt a suspicious look he was giving him. "Listen, if you're thinking that I might have inside knowledge about how many vials the Allomancers in our ranks have because I'm one of the Venture's spies and I knew the stores they were bringing in, there's a perfectly innocent explanation that's not that," Valbar said. "You see, last night, as I was keeping watch, the mist covered me and I heard a voice that told me that all Allomancers start with 2 vials, I swear I'm telling the truth! I hope that answers your concerns." As Valbar hurried back to his post, he still couldn't help feeling like he was being watched, which was not a feeling he was familiar with... Straight from the rules - "All Allomancers begin play with two vials of the metal they can burn, except the Mistborn, who begins play with one vial of each metal. A player may pass one or more vials they possess to another player during the Day Turn instead of voting, or during the Night Turn instead of taking an action or ordering metals." I guess the trend of me getting votes early is still happening. That's all for now, I've got to work on LG33 at the moment.

Woo, it started! I'm off to bed right now, but I may try and get some RP up tomorrow. A few words of advice before I go though... Couriers, make sure to create your PM's for this Turn! Tineyes and Lurchers, it's kind of a shot in the dark to use your abilities this Turn, but since you can't get more vials right now, you could go for it(but it's your call of course ). Captains, don't forget that you remove players vials when you detain them, so be careful! Everyone else, you're on your own.

You can't word your Omen Recognition order to get specifics from an event. You can just scan a single event(specifically, a player going Insane or being attacked) for any Skindancer involvement. In the scenario you gave, yes, Steph would receive a message something like "Skindancers were involved in this event."

It can be anyone involved in the event that makes it show up as Skindancer involvement.

Haha, I don't know about that. Brightness is considering, and we did just start reading Well of Ascension...

I'll sign up as Valbar, who seems to always be ignored, despite his large stature.

I knew it! It seemed like that to me too, I just didn't go back through to confirm that. And yeah, I feel no remorse for killing you in LG24 Len.

Great game everyone! It was incredibly close, and there were times that I was sure one side or the other would win... That was an especially exciting end to the game. I was having some serious flashbacks to QF14, and I even got to do a multi-lynch! (Sure, it was only a double one, but it was still fun. ) Thanks for running the game Joe, and the write-ups were hilarious! I also thought it was hilarious about all of the marriages having a "Lopen clan" member involved and an eliminator until the last Cycle or so. That was a strange turn of events.

Insane Skindancers can't take any Actions, just like Insane Students. It's good to make sure they're dead... I'll let El give a more detailed answer about that, though. But you can probably assume we'll use common sense and call the game if it reaches a point where either side is the clear winner.

Steph. Hero.

Yup, I am. I tried to scan Unodus C1. C2, I tried to scan Steph. Both times I was Tripped. I forgot to send in a scan C3(also didn't make a PM). This past Cycle, I scanned Jedal as not being a Librarian. Sorry for not revealing I was a Librarian, but I didn't think me not claiming would cause something like this. :/ I was afraid that after Ecth was shown to be village, if I'd claimed Librarian, I'd be lynched. Now that both BR and Drought have been shown to not be Librarian's though, I'm beginning to wonder if Joe only gave the Librarian role to villagers, just to mess with everyone. Rand is the one who helped kill BR and get Drought outed. If he'd been evil, don't you think he'd have just killed Yitzi and added another teammate to the Knights doc, so they'd have majority? At that point, they'd have basically won the game. So this theory doesn't make any sense, sorry. Plus, why would the elims attack Rand, and kill Drought, just so Rand could kill Unodus, a player who hasn't even done much game discussion. That's 3 elims deaths(BR, Drought, and Rand) for just the single village death, and trust for Hero. Which is not a good pay off. As for me being active this Turn, um, you of all people should know that I haven't had the time until just now. I did post last Night, and was trying to help discussion with my suggestion of voting for the next Knight recruit(which I was going to discuss with Yitzi and randuir whether we should actually take the vote seriously or just decide on our own and use the discussion for how we should choose or not). And I would have loved going for the multi-lynch, but I hardly had the time to try and coordinate one with others, and so far I've had a difficult time getting suspicions I'm confident in, which is what I told you I wanted to use the multi lynch on at the start of the game. I said I wanted to wait until the 3rd of 4th Cycle and try to lynch all of the remaining eliminators at once. Of course, I was really just trying to get reactions from that, but if I came to trust you, I might have tried it, since I really like that mechanic, and it would have been awesome to pull that off. At this point, I'm strongly suspicious of you. You married an eliminator on the 2nd Cycle when you had the Tripping Talent. Considering I feel like it's extremely likely that Hero is village, then I wouldn't put it past Joe to give the elims the Tripper role, or maybe you claimed to Drought and he converted you? Either way, you just moved to the top of my suspect list. Steph. Drought.

Nice work Knights! And I'm honored to have joined your ranks. I'll be honest though, Ecth being village is pretty frustrating for me. I just don't understand why he focused on me like he did. Anyways, Drought. I think that's about as good evidence as it gets, especially in a QF. Because I think it's likely we won't have great lynch discussion this Cycle, and the Knights information is compromised from BR being evil(I kinda wish I had been able to help in killing her, but I'm okay with how things worked out ), and randuir is going to die, I propose we hold a tryouts of sorts for the position of Knight of Crystalia! The way the Knights choose their successors is by putting who they want to be the next Knight at the top of the player list in the doc, so whatever order the players are listed as, that's who the next Knight(s) will be. So, what do you all think? We could have everyone vote for the next Knight in yellow or something, or if you want to be a Knight, you could just put forward your application and we will consider it if you make a solid case.

Okay, well, I am pretty exhausted, so I really don't have the motivation to do a big post by post analysis like I wanted. Here's my current thoughts on the players I mentioned though: Hero - I've been somewhat suspicious of Hero just based on a gut read of his posts from the earlier Cycles, and I believe he's only voted on villagers so far(not uncommon, but I still count it as a small point against him), plus he's been pretty quiet last Cycle and so far in this one. I understand he's busy, but it is a little worrisome. He's probably my second highest suspect, after Ecth. Brightness - From what I remember of her posts, the only player she's voted on whose alignment is known is cloudjumper, who was village. Other than that, she was a little suspicious of BB but didn't vote on him. Considering the circumstances, that's not as suspicious as I'd normally think, because she was pretty busy C1, but she hasn't really done anything that seemed really villager-y to me, so I am a little suspicious of her. I lean towards believing that her and Ecth are roleless, since it would be somewhat risky to lie about that with Ecth in as much danger as he is, but I don't know if that really affects my read on her much. Between her and Steph, I do think I'm more suspicious of her, but it's been decidedly more difficult than usual to get a clear read on either of them so far. I'm not as suspicious of her as I am of Ecth or Hero, but I wouldn't be against lynching her if it came down to her and most other players. Sorry sis. >> Ecthelion - I think randuir has covered most of the points against Ecth, and I don't have the brain power to repeat them. Needless to say, I'm suspicious of him as well. Yitzi - Yeah, about the next Cycle reveal stuff, I don't really like it, but it actually seems like more of a village thing to do at this point. Unless the Dancer is an elim, the elims shouldn't be able to pull a hammer until 2 Cycles from now, so I don't feel like he'd lie about evidence(and randuir supposedly knows what the info is as well, so he'd be implicating himself as well if it were a lie, and I don't feel like they'd do that as elims at this point). So, moving my vote from Yitzi to Ecthelion. And now Unodus voted on Ecth as well. Hm. I don't know the exact total, but I feel like there's a fairly large vote differential between Ecth and the next lynch targets. I feel like there's probably some bussing going on(either that or Ecth is actually innocent, which I have a hard time believing). Well, if I've got time before I leave for church tonight, I'll look over each voter and reconsider everything. For now, I'm going to get some much needed sleep(ended up getting less than 2 hours last night :/).

Yeah, it's a QF, and no one has really done anything to prove themselves, considering we've only lynched villagers and the Knights have only killed villagers. All of the lynches have had shaky reasoning. Why are you so focused on me? I answered your accusations from last Cycle as best as I could, and put forward my honest opinions on who I thought was village and who I thought might be elims. I can understand being suspicious of me for voting on Mage, I consider votes on villagers as fair reasons to be suspicious of someone, but I find it suspicious that you said you were convinced one of me or rand was evil, but then voted alongside me to save yourself without really pushing hard for mine or rand's lynch, and now have gone back to saying that I'm "probably" evil. Anyways, I don't want to just focus on you, since I've been wrong about you before(quite recently >>), and we really need to kill an elim this Cycle. You mentioned other suspicions, mind sharing those? At the moment, I'm leaning village for randuir and El still, and Unodus to some extent, although given he hasn't really participated in lynches much, I'm less confident in my read now. As promised, here's some analysis: Yitzi - First thing of note is that he responds to BB's declaration of being a Hushlander, basically asking for clarification from BB, but not in an accusatory way. He puts forward the idea of using a multi lynch. He eventually votes on BB, to 'close off the possibility of Hushlanders manipulating the vote off of BB.' It seems like he didn't really suspect BB initially for his odd claim to begin the game, but closer to the end of the Cycle, it seemed like he did think it was suspicious, so that is a little odd to me. I feel like it's pretty safe to assume he's not a Librarian, because of the way he acted when asking about the role. If he was a Librarian, he probably wouldn't have acted ignorant of the way the role is used, since if he got scanned, that would look suspicious. So far he's voted on BB, Cluny, and cloudjumper, all of whom have turned out to be village. He didn't post at all last Cycle, which is pretty disappointing, and now he's posted this Cycle, but without mentioning his lack of posting last Cycle or as El mentioned, why he voted then retracted on Ecth like he did. Overall, I've got a slight elim read on him, mostly from the voting on villagers and lack of posting last Cycle. One thing I do think is in his favor is that he's likely not a Librarian, but I don't know how much of an alignment indicator that is. Ornstein - Has posted 3 one-liners. :/ He actually hasn't been online for around 30 hours or so. I don't really have an opinion on him, but I'm not sure we need to worry about him if he is an elim, considering his inactivity. Of course, he could participate in an elim hammer if he comes back, so I wouldn't mind asking the Knights to kill him, but I don't think he's a priority at this point. Unodus - My reasoning for trusting Unodus is mostly because of my PM with him. He started the PM with his proposal, which surprised me a little, and made me a little wary that he was trying to get on my good side or something, but after talking with him for a while, he mentioned that he didn't even realize the marrying mechanic actually had a use, which isn't something I'd expect an elim to not know about, and I felt like he was being genuine about not knowing that. He hasn't voted so far I don't think, which I guess could be counted against him, but I kind of feel like an elim would try to vote at least once at this point, if only to avoid the suspicion that usually comes from not participating in lynches. Also, I'm kind of biased since we're married and his RP is great. Jedal - Has only posted twice, and neither have really said anything alignment indicative, IMO. Basically, just look at randuir's analysis last Cycle. >> I really have no idea, since I've seen new players go completely inactive from either side. I guess I wouldn't mind the Knights killing him, but I don't feel like we should use the lynch on him, considering it won't give us any information to go off of for next Cycle. Similar to Ornstein, he hasn't been online in a while, so he's not a priority. And that's all I've got time for tonight. I decided to analyse the more active players tomorrow(Brightness, Hero, Drought, Ecthelion), since I really need to get some sleep(looks like I'll only get like, 3 hours at this point, but I've only got myself to blame ). I should be around much earlier tomorrow than usual to get that analysis done, since I get up at a normal time on Sundays. Although I do have church, so I won't be around much near rollover. Plus rollover for LG33 is tomorrow as well. Edit: Oh, meant to vote on Yitzi. That may change tomorrow though.