little wilson

Certain? No. It's a very strong hunch based on my analysis. I would like to hear his defense to it, and I realize I posted it rather late last night (it took far longer than I'd thought it would), but he's rather good at this game and so far his responses to suspicions have alleviated those same suspicions--but I'm not sure if that's because he's genuinely innocent or if it's simply eliminator skill. The most recent issues with the Eoldren situation has me thinking it's far more likely the latter than the former. But there's not really more I can say about that situation than I've already said. Macen has me almost wanting to rethink, but this is essentially exactly what he did last cycle, so I'm leaving my vote where it is. EDIT: Are you saying that this is probably indicative of Maill's guilt or of his innocence?

I highly dislike your mind games. Just saying.

I noticed yesterday that when Jasnah tried to do that, her votes didn't get counted. If you want, I can edit the color in for you, but I'll need you to tell me to do that.

After sleeping on that analysis and considering my findings more this morning, I feel more comfortable placing a vote on Marand. While I didn't come out of the analysis convinced he was evil (I'd be concerned if I had, as that would likely mean my thoughts were compromised going into it), I did find enough discrepancies that really just don't make sense. There's his double standard in attacking me for attacking Odysa, his utter lack of showing any actual suspicion on the vast majority of his votes even though he says he will, and then the whole situation with his vote on Eoldren. While all of that could be coincidental--and I'm sorry if it is, Maill--past experience with him indicates that it is not. EDIT: I'm placing my lighteyes vote on Karlin this cycle.

I want to apologize in advance for the length of this analysis. Really truly. Kudos to everyone who reads it all. Okay. Analysis commencing for Maill/Marand. Cycle one, five posts The only post of merit is his second one, where he votes for Eoldren, mostly because he’s tired of the RP and he wants more discussion. He’d like Jasnah to show up, and he volunteers himself to be the lighteyes secret vote target, on the condition that Alvron will remove the vote from him. There’s nothing that sticks out to me particularly here. It’s standard Maill behavior. Cycle two, three posts His first post was a vote for me, with terrible reasoning that he acknowledged was awful: His second post involved a retraction of the previous vote, and a statement that both mine and Odysa’s votes were “weird.” He listed what he found weird about Odysa’s vote, but forgot to mention mine. That’s fine. He also had a white text message mixed in with the post telling people to “watch kas”. His third post was a warning to Odysa, telling her that random behavior switches (like with her all of a sudden RPing out of nowhere) is what got Jain and Ash killed so many times in their first games. For the most part, his posts here aren’t of particular worth either. His first post with the awful reasoning is something he’s done in the past, so that’s fine. The second post interests me slightly, in that he never fully backs up his statement for “weird” and while he retracts his vote for me, he immediately lays groundwork for further suspicion on me. And the last vote is standard behavior for him. It could be him warning a potential spy to knock off the random behavior, but I’m not going to read too much into that one. Cycle three, three posts This is where things really start getting interesting. His first post is a response to my “research paper on the habits of the common Odysus wintercloudisis” as Kas put it. He accused me of heavy-handed manipulation and said that I seemed certain of her guilt and I went on to show my “proof”. He then contested me about my stated strategy for this game, bringing up LG9 and my desire to kill the Serial Killer. He then ended the post placing a vote on me, and listed some players who are likely to be my partner based on my desire to keep connections to a bare minimum. I find this post particularly interesting because of his accusation about the certainty of my guilt, and then he turns around and pretty much does the exact same thing. With far less backing up his stance than I had in my “research paper.” His second post, which he posted after my reveal as the Officer, is another response to me. He says I used “wording that assumes Odysa’s guilt,” and makes it sound like I “know that she’s guilty.” Now let’s look at the facts: in that initial post, I analyzed behavior and came to a logical conclusion. After that logical conclusion, it should come as no surprise that I made a few statements about who her teammates could be. At the very end of both of my posts where I talked heavily about Odysa, I gave her an out if she were innocent. If I were certain of her guilt, as his accusation states, I would never have given her that out. He conveniently forgets this. He then concedes my point about the Serial Killer, saying he forgot about the stalking (which I’m not entirely sure how one forgets about that, but whatever…). Then he makes mention of my reveal, basically saying that the fact that I didn’t announce my role right off the bat when it’s obvious to everyone what I am doesn’t make sense. He says that while he’s convinced slightly of my innocence, it’s a little too easy. He admits that I’m a better player than this when I’m evil, but he’s going to leave his vote on me, waiting for Twei to defend herself before he tests my claim. I’m just going to nitpick here, because this last bit actually really irked me. I got legitimately upset about the game for a decent while because it was so contradictory, and in retrospect, I should’ve called him out on this, but I was so peeved that I couldn’t think straight. Well, now I can. That logic doesn’t make sense. I’m guessing, if he’s good, he was keeping a close eye on me because I’m very good at being evil. And then when inconsistencies popped up, he got suspicious of me. I can understand that. But you can’t have it both ways. If I’m so good, as he readily admits, why am I making amateur mistakes? You can’t use the reasoning that I’m good at being evil and back it up with suspicions that are fundamentally based on actions that get amateurs revealed. A true pro would never be caught making those kinds of inconsistencies. I don’t even think someone trying to use an I Know You Know gambit would try that for something like this. It just doesn’t make sense. Anyway, his third post that cycle retracted his vote for me and placed a vote on Meta. He says that I’ve eased some of his suspicions and he’s inclined to believe Kas. He then says that he’ll explain on Monday a little more why he voted like he did. Nothing to say about this one. Cycle four, two posts His first post is an exclamation about Meta’s innocence. He’d thought Kas had been onto something with his suspicions, and he’d had his own “small suspicions” as well. He suggested the messengers contact Tal, for me to roleblock Odysa, and for the scouts to leave the camp once again. Biggest point of contention with this one: asking me to roleblock Odysa. The reason for this is two-part. One, why’s he asking me to role-block a specific person in the thread? By default, asking that means that they’re not going to have her put in an order. And two, why’s he suddenly suspicious of Odysa? Where’s his reasoning for this? He hasn’t expressed anything remotely close to suspicion about her for the past few cycles, not since he said her vote was “weird.” In fact, he seemed to be passively defending her by attacking me as hard as he did. But now, all of a sudden, he wants me to roleblock her. His second post explains that he’d been out of town, and he wanted to get his opinions and suggestions out early in the cycle, since he wouldn’t be around after that. He also stated that he’d been “fairly convinced” that Macen was the Officer Spy, but since Macen claimed Surgeon, he was hesitant to lynch him, since he didn’t want to lose one of the few protective roles. Then he messed up the lighteyes number, saying that lynching Macen, if Macen is good, would decimate the lighteyes, since there would only be two loyal lighteyes and one traitor, making the vote easy to manipulate, when in actuality, there would’ve been three loyal lighteyes left (assuming Macen died and was good) versus one traitor. He then placed his vote on Reihmer, saying that he’ll have more time the next day to analyze why Ren feels off to him. In this post, he seems to be trying to manipulate us from going after any lighteyes at all. I get that feeling mostly through the mistaken numbers. It could be an honest mistake, but he’s good at analysis. He also keeps track of numbers, which is why this sticks out to me. He’s making things seem worse than they actually would be with a mistaken lynch. While, yes, lynching the wrong person would be bad, it wouldn’t mean that the vote would be up for manipulation right then. A second mislynch and that’s when things would start getting a little tricksy. In my opinion, an extremely educated guess on who the spy is within a small group of suspects, regardless of the potential risk, is far better than a fairly random hit in a larger group. And I’m pretty sure he knows that. Cycle five, six posts (so far) His first post starts by congratulating the Guardsman on a good save, and saying that Macen’s save could’ve come from any of the spy teams, but he thinks it was probably from Macen’s own spy team. He then voted for Jasnah, asking her why she voted for him, saying that he’s been “acting like an Eliminator,” and he’s “very curious” to hear about this. After that, he said that he no longer finds Ren suspicious. There isn’t really much in this one. I noticed the way he said that he was very curious why she thinks he’s been acting like an eliminator, but that could easily be something someone on either team would ask. The other thing is that he couldn’t find anything on Ren. This seems to be a habit of his in this game. Not counting his votes on me, he’s made a number of votes that he says he’ll back up later, but then he never does. Conveniently, he finds that his gut feelings didn’t have much merit in the end, which is interesting, since at the beginning of the game, he said those gut feelings have been known to serve him well (when he first voted for me, with the awful reasoning). His second post was a response to Odysa’s dark-humor joke about the person who acquires the Shardblade this cycle dying. Nothing of worth in this post. His third post was a response to Ren, telling him that he still thinks he’s suspicious, he just can’t figure out why. Post number four is his “bandwagon” vote on Eoldren. He makes a joke about Ace giving them the last piece to the puzzle, with luckat, votes for Eoldren, says he thought he had something early on when he voted for him (at the beginning of the game), and then talks to Mek. He says that Mek should’ve waited a little longer before revealing that kind of information. Now the spies are likely to vote for Eoldren so they’re not suspected as much. I think this post is quite intriguing, mostly due to the advice there at the end. He’s trying to be helpful, but he really should’ve taken his own advice. If he’s so sure that the spies would vote for Eoldren, he should’ve waited to see who would vote for Eoldren. He also shouldn’t just be taking a known spy’s word on luckat being a guardsman. Maill is normally more careful about jumping on votes like that. While, yes, he likes to lynch the bad guys, he typically like to affirm their badness, at least a bit, first. With this, there wasn’t any confirmation whatsoever. Mek even said he wasn’t sure if Eoldren was the guardsman or the saboteur. It made sense for Mek to place a vote on Eoldren. An additional vote, before luckat could confirm or deny Macen’s post, or Eoldren defending himself, though? That’s sketchy. His fifth post is a retraction of that vote, based on luckat’s denial and Eoldren’s defense. He then says that he never had suspicions of Eoldren from the outset, but he did have some suspicions when he first voted for him, because of the infrequent posts and the mostly-RP. He said he thought he might’ve had something when he voted for him, and then with Mek’s reveal, he thought he was right. He then apologized for the vote. I want to make some comments about this first bit before I go into the rest of his post (mostly because the rest isn’t particularly suspicious). His vote on Eoldren was in the first cycle. So I’m skeptical when he says that Mek’s reveal made him think he was right about those suspicions. I mean, think about it. What he’s basically saying is that some suspicions he had in the first cycle, which were based on infrequent, mostly-RP posts, had him convinced that he was right come cycle five when a watchman stepped forward and said that Eoldren could’ve either guarded Kas or sabotaged him…...Is that supposed to make sense? I’m unaware of a time when “some suspicions”--which implies a somewhat vague set of suspicions--holds over for a full four cycles, never becoming enough for him to mention previously, but being enough to place a vote without any real evidence. Moving on, the rest of his post explains his “poke voting” tendency, his reasoning for the whole lighteyes-secret-ballot-target fiasco, his suspicions about Meta (which weren’t as concrete as he’d thought they were), his reason for suggesting Odysa as the target for my roleblocking (which he says was to limit them, although I’m not sure how it was really supposed to limit them), and another apology for jumping on the vote too easily. After that, he voted for Alinel, who is in the “sweet spot” of posting. And that’s it. After doing this, I’m inclined to think he’s a spy, but I’m not sure if that’s because I’ve just spend the last two-three hours analyzing his posts looking for suspicious behavior and now I’m seeing spies where there are none, or if he’s actually a spy and I’ve accurately analyzed the posts. To be fair, when I started this, I wasn’t expecting to find anything. I was actually surprised when I did. So I think I’m right. I’m just not sure I’m convinced enough to place a vote…. I am convinced enough to do this: Alinel. Again, I'm truly sorry. I'll stop talking now....

This is the second time you've said something that's been off in interpretation, and I can't decide if that's intentional because you're trying to hide your spy status behind naivety and inattention or if you legitimately have been busy enough that you're barely able to keep up with the game, and even then just through skimming so you end up missing out on some pretty evident points. Odysa's not the Wit. She'd like us to think she is, but she's not. The only way she could've been is if she were heterochromic, but since Alv is the heterochromic, it's literally impossible for Odysa to be the Wit. Which means Kaddar is. And the spies seem to think killing him via sabotage is a good idea, so I don't think we need to worry about lynching him. And anyway, why would we even want to lynch him in the first place? The Wit is the only role (not counting Shardbearers) that is certifiably good. I sort of take issue with your comment about the numbers too. It seems like we're in a good position with the numbers. However, there are still 3 teams of spies out there, and it's a battle cycle. Which means that unless they double up on someone, target someone skipping battle, I'm able to get in a lucky role-block, or we have another Guardsman who protects someone who gets attacked, we're going to lose 3 people today (4 if we lynch one of our own). And that's not counting Karlin if he doesn't post. If today goes poorly, we won't be sitting pretty enough to go lynching inactives. We can't afford to do that until at least one of the spy teams is gone. On a separate note, I'll be starting up that analysis on Maill here in a bit, and I'll get it posted before I go to bed (so in a little under 4 hours, I think). For now, I'm keeping my vote on Araris, because I still think there's something off about him.

I disagree. I see why you're saying we would've, but that's in the context of what's happened, and you're suggesting something that didn't happen. So the situations don't fit. Solely using my thoughts before Alv came forward, I was ready to turn to the Darkeyes, because I knew the heterochromic was a possibility for a spy, and I wasn't willing to do exactly what you're suggesting. The fact that he came forward made it possible to find the spy in the lighteyes because we knew all the players it could possibly be.

No, I considered that. I also dismissed it, because it made utterly no sense for a heterochromic spy to come forth. If it were me in that position, I would've sat back and gladly watched the lighteyes massacre each other to find the nonexistent spy in their ranks. I'm pretty sure most players would. The fact Alv came forward indicated he was good, especially since no one else said "Hey, he's lying! I'm the heterochromic!"

I plan to analyze his posting this game when I get off work, but I don't expect to really find much. His last post indicates he's probably good, but I'll still do that analysis, just in case. Good luck with that. I meant it when I said there was no point to use it early on. And I'm really glad I didn't at this point. I also highly doubt Luckat skipped the Skirmish last cycle, and that's the only way her skip would be gone. So....you can try to hit us, but you're just going to miss. Too bad, so sad. I contest this. You might've thought it worked, but that would've just been us ignoring the Officer while we focused on the Darkeyes. We would've found you though. We might've killed Joe in the process, but we would've found you. I'm a little upset I didn't trust my gut from early in the game (I freaking pegged you the first cycle. It's inexcusable that I dropped you from my suspect pool after that), but with the way my notes were going in reference to you, it was only a matter of time before I had enough evidence to convince me of your treachery.

They may have hit a spy by luck. I'm not sure how, as a spy, you'd figure out if the person you've contacted is a spy, but it helps that they've got more than one cycle to figure that out. Ah, yes. Always a good strategy.

Ah. Well. My role notes have been fixed in that regard. It's weird that I screwed them up, because I know that I made them while looking at the roles and stuff in the official post. But whatever. This is better anyway. PM? With him relaying the messages back and forth? If so, I do not envy him that job one bit.

...Did he change that rule or was it always like that? I could've sworn I saw it at one point when it was that the Messenger needed to stop the previous PM in order to start a new one.

I think you're right. But I think there's just one left. I just did a rough analysis of all the roles and I've got this: 3 Spearmen (Torwel, Newan, and Odysa have all either claimed this role or implied it) 2 Watchmen (Meta and Mek) 3 Messengers (Ash, [redacted], and ?) 2 Scouts (? and ?) 3 Guardsman (Eoldren, ?, and ?) 1 Squad Leader (?) 2 Swordsmen (Jain and Jost) 2 Officers (Kenara and Macen) 1 Surgeon (Norlav) 1 Wit (Kaddar) Likely Spy Breakdown: Team Vamah 1. Lighteyed Swordsman 2. Darkeyed Messenger (or the Guardsman) Team Aladar 1. Lighteyed Officer 2. Darkeyed Spearman (or Scout) Team Roion 1. Darkeyed Guardsman (or the Messenger) 2. Darkeyed Scout (or Spearman) (Obviously, the Aladar and Roion team can be switched around, as that's just a guess, but I'm kind of thinking Macen was the Aladar Spy who got hit on Cycle 2, so...yeah) 3 Messengers is a guess, based on Luckat's comment of "each messenger," which implies that multiple messengers have contacted her. I doubt there are more than 2 that contacted her, since that would mean there would be 4 (or more) messengers in the game. Which is a rather high number, all things considered. Although, I guess with PM's being as limited as they are, it is possible. If there are 4 Messengers, we likely only have either 1 scout or 2 Guardsmen. Maybe 2 Spearmen. Also, we might have two, but we probably only have 1 left. I'm inclined to think that [redacted] is a Spy. If I've read things right, Kas knows who I'm talking about. Twei might as well, but I'm less sure about that. I know Kas at least will. 2 Scouts is also a guess. I think Kas is right in thinking they're split between teams. Until I did the breakdown, I was uncertain, but looking at the numbers, I think there's a very good chance that they're split. However, if there is only 1 Scout, that scout is on our team. And the spies have 2 Messengers (so replace the scout on the breakdown with another messenger). And lastly, 3 Guardsmen is a guess. There could be only 2. But I think there are 3. Two Team Good Guardsman (Eoldren is one of those), and 1 Team Evil (who is now useless to his team, outside of sabotaging). Will that work? The Messengers are supposed to stop using the PMs from past cycles, so they won't be able to give those codewords to their former contacts. (I may have misunderstood the plan though) It's possible the attack came from the skipped battle, yes. But Macen's post here indicates that at least one spy team tried to kill Kaddar in the Skirmish too. I think that the Watchman would only see a random choice of sabotage orders that went through that cycle or any other regular action. So if the sabotage was a carry-over from the battle and no spies tried to sabotage Kaddar in the skirmish, the only action Mek could've seen is the guardsman. If a sabotage order was put in, he could've seen that or the guardsman. (Assuming I'm reading this right. I'll admit, the thing with the orders still kind of confuses me). Well, the docs can't be in communication with each other right now. Even if they have multiple messengers, those messengers are in contact with you right now. So by default, they can't be in contact with another spy. So he could've been communicating with other teams. As a known spy, he's really the only one who can at the current moment in time.

Oh, now that is what I'm talking about. If luckat will confirm what Macen mentioned (which makes the most sense), it sounds like you really did just find the saboteur. Excellent job.

6 people (now that Araris has posted) are the maximum that could be killed. I don't think that will happen though. Karlin's been checking the forum pretty regularly, so I imagine he'll post sometime this cycle. And as for the three spy kills....I might be able to block one of them (hopefully. With a supreme bit of luck). Plus, there's the whole Luckat and I can still skip the battle, and the spies will have to factor that possibility into their choosing of targets. If they choose us, and we skip, they just missed a kill. Um. Actually, unless a lighteyes skips combat, the sabotage list is reset each cycle. So there was no build-up. Sorry. And just so you know, it's pointless to vote for Macen. We're not lynching him. His fate is to have burned-out eyes.

That's actually exactly what I was thinking when I said that you'd forgotten him. Case. In. Point.

Yes. So jealous. I wanted to send people to the latrines as well.... Oh, wait. That's right. I already can.

You missed Araris, Ren.

Says the man who is going to die to that Shardbearer....

The trolling! The trolling has officially begun! Yes! Really, Kas? That's your excuse? Psh. I believe you. I'm just saddened because now it doesn't humor me nearly as much. : (

Ladies and Gentlemen, may I present to you Sleepy!Kas. (Sorry, Kas. I know you're going to edit it the second you see it, but I had to document it. It was far too funny.)

I don't think that's possible. Lynch happens before the Shardblade is awarded.

I figured not. It was more a blind hope. I'm filling in my spreadsheet with his actions, and I saw that he'd claimed to protect you in Cycle 2. And since we still don't know who was keeping Twei company at the latrines that cycle.....But he wouldn't give up a fellow spy (and I think it's pretty much a guarantee that that second person is a spy, especially now we know there are three teams). It's about time. Oh really? That's interesting....I believe you.

Yes. I have a battle skip. I'm contemplating using it on this battle, but I haven't decided. Also, when Macen told us who he "protected" as the Surgeon, he said Meta in the first cycle. It's true he had an action against Meta. Do you think he might've been honest with us about his targets? If so, his second role-blocked target was Maill....

I had a feeling that was the case. It explains why they saved Macen. They wanted him alive to roleblock you again.