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little wilson

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Everything posted by little wilson

  1. little wilson
    I don't think we should lynch Macen. It's pretty much a guarantee what he is. Let's start looking at darkeyes, and leave luckat to deal with Macen. My current top suspects among the darkeyes: Araris and Maill. There's a reason I role-blocked Araris. I find it interesting that a few people have made mention of those who have been less active, naming Rainspren and Ren, but totally skipping over Araris. He didn't post at all last cycle, and during the highstorm, he only posted once, then twice more in the cycles before that (I didn't link to his posts in Cycle 1). He's posted just enough so people aren't really watching him, but little enough that he doesn't have to say anything of worth. And it's not like he hasn't been around. He has been. I've been paying attention. He's been reading the thread and keeping up with the game. He just hasn't been posting. I'd like him to start. That's not a bad idea, Kas. Luckat skips the battle and still kills Macen. However, I highly doubt Alvron will be protecting anyone during the battle. Remember that for all intents and purposes, he's a darkeyes. I think it's safe to say that Macen will roleblock him. Which means, if Luckat skips the battle, the spies will probably target the three of us: you, me, and Alvron. Get rid of the Surgeon, the Wit, and both the Officers (since Luckat will be ridding us of Macen). That's a rather unpleasant body count. I'll do what I can to lessen it. No guarantees.
  2. little wilson
    I beg to differ. There are likely only two guardsman. One evil, one good. Both of them made an appearance today. The good one saved Kaddar (no doubt counting on the Surgeon to protect luckat). The bad one saved Macen. Macen is trying to say that they used that guardsman to implicate him more, but there is no way that the spies used their one-shot protective role just to delay us for one more cycle. No. They used their one-shot protecting their Officer. Give up the charade, Macen. Start trolling. It's much more amusing that way. Also, both guardsmen are now out of commission. This means that, if the three teams are in communication with each other, one of them will put a hit on Alvron, and the other two will put a hit on Luckat. Unless I can block one of them, we'll lose both our Surgeon and our Shardbearer in the battle. As it is, we're guaranteed to lose one of them.
  3. little wilson
    I'm no Dellan. However, the cycle's almost over. In case I die, I roleblocked Araris.
  4. little wilson
    I'm not withdrawing. That's exactly what Macen wants. He's counting on us thinking that we're being too hasty and switching the vote back to you or Joe or anyone who isn't him. The logic is sound, though. It's either Macen or Alv, and what it comes down to is Alv's heterochromia. If Alv was a spy, why would he reveal himself as the heterochromic? That makes no sense. He's far better suited mingled in with the darkeyes, if he's actually a heterochromic spy. And if he's not heterochromic, then why hasn't the real heterochromic come forward? I'm pretty sure by this point, everyone's checked the thread since Alvron revealed that. They've at least all been online. My gut is saying that Alvron is true, and if Alvron is true, Macen has to be lying.
  5. little wilson
    From what I know about the balancing, it seems most likely that we have two regular lighteyes, one evil (Jain) and one good (Joe), two officers--also one evil and one good--, and 1 each of Wit and Surgeon. If we'd had enough players for a sixth lighteye, I'm not sure if Wyrm would've thrown in another Swordsman or a Surgeon, but it would've been one of those (and then the other for a seventh). My reasoning is that the Surgeon is the most powerful protective ability, and we already have the guardsman. So one Surgeon, and two Guardsmen. I'm betting one of the guardsmen is evil.
  6. little wilson
    Ah. Yeah. Personally, I am rather hesitant to try doctor gambits, but that just goes back to what I've already said: I don't like doing gambits that have a very high risk of exposing me and likely killing me. Which I can see that type of gambit doing. Aonar seems similar in that respect. But just because I don't like doing those particular gambits doesn't mean other people don't like doing them. That's why they're gambits in the first place: because someone tried it and was successful at it. Heck, even if they weren't successful, it's still a gambit. You hadn't voted for anyone yet. This is your first vote. Odysa. Macen. Unless Alv gets on and says something that invalidates my logic, that's where it's staying.
  7. little wilson
    I don't see how these are exclusive.... I'm familiar with Aonar's gambits. At least somewhat. Granted, it's been a while since we were on Team Evil together, but I remember the gambit he pulled. It was risky, but we had the parts necessary to make it work, as long as Peng and his Trusted Circle were gullible/trusting enough to fall for it. In QF4, I couldn't see him claiming to be the Nurse unless he had both the Renegades, just to ensure that no one got attacked that he was supposed to be "protecting." I don't know Macen's evil playstyle. I don't know the gambits he would take. All I know is what I'm seeing. And I'm seeing Alv, who has all the pieces in this lighteyes puzzle, voting for Macen, when he's had plenty of time to switch that vote. If he hasn't, it means he has reason to believe Macen is lying. And the biggest reason I can see would be if Alv were the Surgeon. Another person claiming Surgeon would then look very suspicious.
  8. little wilson
    True, we could kill our Surgeon. Or we could kill the Officer. I'm looking at it exactly as you said: We have a 1/3 chance of killing the Surgeon, but as long as we don't just shoot blindly, the odds of hitting the Surgeon are slim. So the point is to find the Officer. With that in mind, here's the way I'm seeing things (and I'd really prefer not to state things like this, because...well. You'll see): Alv never claimed any role. All he said was that he was not the Officer. Then he placed a vote on Macen. Shortly after that, Macen stated he was the Surgeon. Despite having plenty of time to remove that vote, Alv hasn't. Joe also came on and claimed he was the Swordsman, which fits with what I thought the roles were for the lighteyes. 2 Swordmen, 2 Officers, 1 Wit, and 1 Surgeon. If Alv is the Swordsman, he should've switched his vote to Joe. He didn't. Which seems to indicate to me that Alv is the real Surgeon. Hence why he's kept his vote on Macen. Unless Alv is a spy (which I really doubt he'd come forward with his heterochromia if he were), the spy is Macen. Alv is the one with all the pieces to this puzzle. And we know how good he is at putting together puzzles.
  9. little wilson
    Frankly, Odysa, I really hope you're being honest, because it seems like my fate is now tied to yours. Which is something I supremely disapprove of. What I said is something you can verify in the evil docs. There's not time right now to read through all 3 of them, but for those who have read through at least one or two of them (or who, even better, were either GMing (Alv) or on my team (Aonar and Joe)), you already know. Do I do risky gambits that could expose me? Yes. Do I do incredibly risky gambits that do expose me and have a high chance of killing me and one of my teammates? No. So much no. But don't take my word for it. Ask them. However, if you're really keen on doing this, fine. Macen. Odysa. I hope you realize, though, this this isn't going to work. And I don't mean that her being evil is going to get me lynched. While that's true, I mean on the chance she's good, you're still not going to believe me. You can say otherwise, but you're trying so hard to not trust me just in case I'm bad that there isn't anything that can happen beyond my death and confirmation of alignment that will assure in your mind that I'm good. So it really doesn't matter who dies right now. I'm still dead in the next lynch. EDIT: I seem to have forgotten that both Maill and Jasnah would also know. EDIT2: I also quoted the wrong paragraph. Oops. I meant this one:
  10. little wilson
    For the most part, I see what you're saying, Kas, and I agree with it. My one catch is that it seems to be that if Odysa ends up being a spy, then that means I must be lying. But what if she is a spy, and she was still telling the truth? You guys seem to be forgetting one very crucial piece of information based on my eliminator past: I don't do gambits that are incredibly risky. That's what this gambit would require. A lot of risk with very little true reward. So why in the world would I ever do it? And yes, I know your paranoia is saying that the very fact that I wouldn't do it means that I could. Trust me. I wouldn't. Even in future games when I'm an eliminator, I'm not going to do it. You guys know me. I plan. I stategize. I go for the plans and strategies that are best, with the littlest chance of suspicion placed on me and my comrades. This isn't one of those plans. While I get that you have no reason to trust me, at least trust the facts.
  11. little wilson
    Oh, there's another spy in the lighteyes. It's fine that you guys think I'm lying about not role-blocking Meta, but I'd like to figure out who did. I know I said I wasn't going to change my vote, and I may regret doing this come the end of the cycle, but Jost. Macen. I'm still incredibly hesitant about this, so my comment about finding a darkeyes to lynch instead still totally holds true.
  12. little wilson
    Not quite. I'm not asking for help in who I should choose. That's a decision I can make myself--and I need to make myself, since if we give a short list in the thread directing the Officer's hits, the only way it would affect the spies is if two spies from the same team ended up on the list. Otherwise, they'll just have the spy who's not on the list put in the sabotage order. This request also isn't for this particular cycle. I've already put in my role-blocking order and there isn't anything that will make me change it. The request is more for later cycles, when there's the debate I've got going on between two people. If luckat kills one, I'll probably go for the other one. Kas, you make a good point about Macen, especially with that find, and I'm almost inclined to change my vote. I'm slightly worried that, if you're right, we're about to kill the actual Surgeon. Ultimately, I think I'll keep my vote where it is, unless we come to an agreement about a darkeyes to lynch. It looks like Maill's entered the suspect pool enough to be a possible target, along with Odysa, and I'm still not sure about lynching her. But if we want to lynch him, I'd be fine with that, since I've had some suspicions about him. EDIT: That means that someone else put a vote on Damon (I'm betting luckat), and the last person must've voted for someone other than Kaddar or Damon.
  13. little wilson
    I don't have time to say much as I need to be getting ready for work, but luckat, if you pick a target, can you tell us who before the rollover? That's mostly so anyone taking an action on them know that could be a waste. I probably wouldn't change just to prevent any submission, but if I have two equally valid targets and one is dying, I could go for the other.
  14. little wilson
    This may sound self-serving, but I would really like to be on that list. While I personally don't really care if I die, role-blocking is pretty important. Not as important as protection when there's a Shardbearer in play, but still. If I hit right (as I suspect I have this cycle), one of the teams doesn't get to sabotage. While it may not be incredibly useful to us now with the pool of suspects so wide, we're going to need it later in the game. I get that you guys don't entirely trust me, so you're hesitant to add me to a list like that. That's completely understandable. But at the same time, if you create a list, that means the spies aren't going to go for the people on that list (unless they're all in communication with each other and all target the same person during a battle). Do you really want to lose your role-blocker?
  15. little wilson
    For me, it's mostly that the lighteyes are the narrowest group of suspects. I know there are more spies in the darkeyes, but while I have some suspicions, it's nothing conclusive for anyone. With this, we know that there's an Officer among the spies. It's not you, and it's not me. That leaves 3 people, one of whom I'm inclined to think it's not (Alvron), and one whom I don't think would lie about the role he claimed (Macen). If it's not Joe, I'll turn my attention to the darkeyes, since I don't want to decimate the lighteyes. But for now, Joe's the best idea I've got. Plus, I don't like them having a roleblocking ability, even if it's limited to darkeyes. That's my territory. They need to back off. These darkeyes are in my army (or at least, Dalinar's), and therefore subject to my command. They are not to be commanded by filthy spies loyal to a traitorous highprince.
  16. little wilson
    Hm. This changes things. Especially since Macen just made himself the biggest target currently, assuming he's not lying. ...That hurts, Aonar. I thought you kind of trusted me too. Not even a little bit? No? Dang. I have absolutely no idea what to do with my vote now. Aonar makes a good point about Alvron's skill. That makes me hesitant to believe his claim of not being the Officer, although I want to. I want to vote for Jost now. But at the same time, I kind of want to see how things play out and if Macen gets targeted today or tomorrow. Ah, heck. Why not? Jost.
  17. little wilson
    Okay. Finally on my laptop. Odysa: I can't really say more about her than I've already said. I still think she's suspicious, but at the same time, I'm getting vibes that she's being straight with us too, so I'm ambivalent toward her. I wouldn't be surprised if she were a spy, but I wouldn't be surprised if she weren't. Newan: His most recent post has me inclined to believe him, for now. That is subject to change in the future. Obviously. Macen: He hasn't done anything particularly suspicious. As I've read through some of the main game thread (only certain parts though), I came across one of the posts Kas mentioned, where Macen agreed with me about the wording of Kas' post. It does seem a little suspicious, but at the same, he could've been telling the truth. Regardless, in this post, he implied that he was a swordsman: As I reread that entire post just now (not just the part I've quoted), I got a vibe that he's not being entirely straight. Although that could just be because of the emoticon right at the end of the quoted section, since the sentence before it seems more like a tongue-in-cheek sentence, rather than a :/ sentence. But I don't know. It could be something beyond that too. (Note that I'm not saying his choice of emoticon is incriminating. I'm just getting a vibe from that post and I can't nail the feeling down to anything particular, but the emoticon did strike me as off, which is why I mentioned it. It's the only real thing I notice, but I know it's more than just the emoticon). Plus, there's the whole "Implied Swordsman" bit. If that's true, he's unlikely to be a spy, as I think there are only 2 lighteyed spies, and the other one has to be an Officer. However, he could easily be lying, as that's a very convenient solution to counter my suspicions toward him. Jost: Again, there's nothing particularly suspicious about his behavior. He's been doing things mostly like he always does. The problem is that Joe has more experience with being evil than anyone else who plays, so I don't think using his behavior is a very good judge. Given the people who were on the chopping block when he voted in Cycle 2 (Jain, Aonar, Karlin, Maill, and Ace), and Joe's notes about them (although he forgot about Aonar and he missed Maill's vote-retraction for me), which he listed in this post here, his vote on Jain doesn't tell us anything. He would've placed that vote if he were good, but he also would've placed it if he were a spy. As Alvron already pointed out, Joe (like me) has a history of lynching teammates if it'll get him trusted (although I've only done it to Joe, so #justice). So...I don't know. I'm inclined to go with my gut and say Macen, and I probably will, but he's already accrued a decent amount of votes, so I'm going to hold off for a bit to give him time to defend himself. EDIT1: For color EDIT2: So as not to double post. My lighteyes vote is again going on Jasnah this cycle. I also just sent in my order on who's about to have a very personal experience with the latrines. I'll let you know who the lucky soul is after the rollover.
  18. little wilson
    That's actually pretty much an impossibility at this point. The only way you could be Wit is if you were heterochromic, and Alv already asked (Edit:stupid phone's swipe) admitted to being the heterochromic. I see no reason for him to say that if he's lying.There been a lot that's happened in the past day, and while I've read it, I haven't had time to analyze it with my notes, so I'm going to wait until I'm able to get on my computer (I'm on my phone currently) to figure out which of Odysa, Newan, Ace, and Jost I'm most suspicious of (because I've had at least slight suspicions of all four for the last cycle).
  19. little wilson
    ....This is what I get for not keeping up with the post counts before the cycle ended. I just had to go back and figure out the numbers for everyone. Ugh.
  20. little wilson
    At least now we know for certain he was telling the truth about getting blocked in the first cycle. And since the other officer never stepped up, but everyone (including Jasnah) either posted or looked at the thread after both Kas and I asked for them to step up, it's pretty much a guarantee they're a spy. I'm not sure about blocking Odysa, not that I don't think she's a spy because her behavior is definitely indicative of one. I just think that if she is one, it's supremely unlikely that her teammate would be having her submit the name for sabotage this cycle, because she could get blocked. And I really doubt that she's Jain's teammate. I'll probably do what I did first cycle: collect the names of the people who I'm suspicious of and then role dice. Leave it to chance. Unless something happens to turn a suspicion into an almost-guarantee. EDIT: Also, since that was Jasnah's second cycle with no activity, isn't she dead now?
  21. little wilson
    Meta. We need a lynch, I think.
  22. little wilson
    I considered it in my notes. I just haven't made a post taking about my suspicions of you since then. Before about ten minutes ago, I was content ignoring the puzzle you present because I know there wasn't much point. If you were a spy, you weren't a particularly great spy, since you'd announced your spyness (plus I know you dislike being an eliminator and while contributing a lot, you're not as much one for strategizing), so I considered you a low priority hit, despite your potential spyness. And if you were the Wit, it would be ridiculous for us to hit you.All that said, after your defense to Meta, I'm more certain about which one of those possibilities you are. I'd go along with your request, if I actually thought Meta would keep his vote on you, since causing a highly potential spy to lose his role is beneficial. But I don't think he will. And now about the actions. I rather hope it's all actions including sabotage that can't get through in a highstorm. Because now is their chance to get higher priority targets on the list without any possible blockage. And I would really like to block them from that (or at least try to block them at it). And lastly, I'm going to be fairly busy today doing things with family I haven't seen in almost a year, so while I might check in a bit, I won't be saying anything until late tonight at the earliest. That should start around an hour after the rollover, maybe earlier (but I doubt it). I'm putting my lighteyes vote on Jasnah, since that's the most harmless place for it currently. Edited for color
  23. little wilson
    Unless he was actually role-blocked, which is a very real possibility when it comes to him. This is why I'm choosing to believe his claim. It could be a lie. But it's more likely for it to be true.
  24. little wilson
    ..... *facepalm* You're right. If they're a spy, they're dead. No matter what.
  25. little wilson
    Excellent. Even more reason for the other Officer to step forward if they're Dalinar-aligned and tell us who they targeted. If the person is a scout, they'll leave next cycle since it's even numbered. Both me and the other Officer won't target the player, but luckat can go after them. If they're a spy, they'll die (unless there's a surgeon or guardsman in their ranks, but then we'll know that and have a lynch target for the next cycle). If they're a scout, they won't.
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